Why you can be optimistic

by wcovington on Apr 8, 2007 8:20 PM PDT Comment 55 comments

I make predictions because they're easier than facing reality.

No one can be surprised by this start, by the Zito and Ortiz outings, Pedro at the bat, or the lack of team offense. We wanted to believe.

Well, here's something to believe; at least it's my drug of choice:
This will not be a very good team this year. In fact, it may -- as SI says -- finish last (I doubt it. Thank you Clint Hurdle).

But I believe that -- by the end of the year -- our bullpen will be one of the best (and perhaps still somewhat underrated) in the NL. Our starting pitching will look ghastly to outsiders, but it too will be quite formidable -- even with some of the current familiar crop gone by next season in trades.

Sabean has made a mess of things and let's not forget Peter M. and his tightwad ways a few years back, but we still have what most teams don't: pitching.

I believe Linden is headed for substantially more playing time, as the reality of THE OTHERS out there becomes apparent. Linden .282/22hrs/65rbi.

Now you're stuck with Randy and Dave, but as platooning left fielders, they'll prosper -- next to Andruw J. in CF and Todd in right. (In my scenario, the other left fielder will be gone.)

I see Mike Lowell at third (would love Cabrera, but am not delusional) and maybe Texiera at 1b. Re-sign Omar. Frandsen at 2b. Bengie still behind the plate. (There WILL be trades: Ray-Ray is valuable; Lowrey is valuable; Sadler is valuable. Morris may be valuable, etc.)

That's a pretty good team, albeit a bit slow.

But it's a beginning, and we sure as s--t need that.

How delusional am I?

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: Why you can be optimistic

The only thing I'm optimistic about is the PCL strikout leaderboard, which currently sits with Lincecum, Misch and Blackley as the top 3.

by mxmob33 on Apr 8, 2007 8:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

what about nate?

Because you can't replace production like 22 home runs. My adopted Giant: Pedro Feliz

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Apr 8, 2007 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

I agree that the bullpen should be better than it has shown. I think Todd Linden and Nate Schierholtz can become acceptable corner outfielders.

I think the Giants may be hedging on re-signing Omar Vizquel because they covet Alex Rodriguez for that position.

I don't think Kevin Frandsen will become an acceptable starting second baseman, although it is possible.

Perhaps the Giants can make Eddie Martinez-Esteve into a first baseman. He could become acceptable there.

The Giants will probably rag-tag their third base position if they feel Angel Villalona will be a solution there around the end of the decade. One solution would be to sign Rodriguez and also re-sign Vizquel.

The Giants have no catching on the horizon as far as I can see.

Their starting pitching looks both good and young.

They need some bats for the future.

by sharksrog on Apr 8, 2007 8:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

Agreed, except Angel is a few (3) years away and there is already talk that he will end up at 1B.

wCovington

by wcovington on Apr 8, 2007 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

Angel isn't blocked at first base by Travis Ishikawa? :)

by sharksrog on Apr 9, 2007 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

BTW, I covet A-Rod for SS too. But given his price I'd rather pay for the younger Cabrera at 3B or RF.

wCovington

by wcovington on Apr 8, 2007 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

I also prefer Miguel, since he's still only 23 (or maybe he turned 24 today!). But what in the world would the Giants have to trade for Miguel that they could afford to give up? I kind of think a package of Lincecum and Cain is out of the question. :)

by sharksrog on Apr 9, 2007 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't do that again

The phrase "a package of Lincecum and Cain" just almost gave me a stroke. Still recovering.

Shitcan Feliz, please; Minor Izzy

by hairball on Apr 9, 2007 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

The gathering concensus seems to be that ARod has played his last game at SS. That as big as he is, and as he's filled out (due to changed workouts) after the move to 3B, and as he's getting older with comensurate range decrease, then the 3 year layoff will be too much to overcome and he's now a 3Ber for life.

by Roger on Apr 9, 2007 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

everybody loves Omar, but he's never been a top hitter and his range is declining every year. I think bringing him back would be a mistake. I would love to get in on the ARod thing, but I think if the Giants don't make the playoffs this year, and if Zito proves to be overpaid, the Giants will think twice before getting in on the bidding for an elite free agent.

Armando Benitez countdown to 300 saves: 281

by rxmeister on Apr 9, 2007 6:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

If we can get anything for Omar at the deadline, we should go for it. Definitely no to extending his contract.

by DrBGiantsfan on Apr 9, 2007 6:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

If the Giants think more than once about getting in the bidding for a free agent, they can likely forget more than once about selling many tickets in the future. Maybe on the days Lincecum and Cain pitch.

by sharksrog on Apr 9, 2007 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

Your drug of choice, you say? Dude, let me in on some of that. Whatever you're getting is WAY better than what I'm getting. The only optimism I see is Lincecum and the good possibility that the Giants will have the number 1 overall pick in next year's draft.

by ololo3 on Apr 8, 2007 8:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

Again, it all goes back to our young arms. And everyone wants them. Would I trade Cain or Lincecum or even Sanchez. No, but we don't need to -- we've got other arms (read Morris)and position players who will bring some bats. The rest comes out of Peter M. & his partners' pockets -- and it's about time!

wCovington

by wcovington on Apr 8, 2007 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

It would be nice if we could exchange some of our pitching for some bats, I just don't really know what we've got that would be all that desirable to other teams (as far as players we'd actually be willing to trade).

Morris is past his prime, coming off a poor season, and signed to an expensive, long term deal. Not much he's gonna bring.

Ortiz is past his prime, coming off multiple poor seasons, and would need to prove himself big time to draw any interest whatsoever.

Lowry may bring us something, but not enough. At least he's young, and has some relative promise. Still, he hasn't proven any consistency at the big league level, and trading him wouldn't really be too bright given the age of the rest of the team.

Hennessey, Correia, Chulk, (insert name of bullpen member here) are all basically worthless in terms of trade value. They're throw-in type players, not players that would ever be a key in a big trade.

Benitez is past his prime, coming off a poor season, and signed to an expensive contract. If he could somehow become dominant again in the near future, we may be able to pawn him off to someone, but he certainly wouldn't bring a big bat.

by ololo3 on Apr 8, 2007 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

everybody talks about trades and how you can get rid of players at the deadline and get some good young players. However, it just doesn't happen anymore. With the high price of free agents, teams are hoarding young players like gold. The Giants could have used some deadline deals the last couple of years, but they didn't want to give up their good kids, and if a veteran loving GM like Sabean is hanging on to their kids, what do you think the GM's of smaller market teams are doing?? How many top young prospects have been dealt the last couple of years?? The key is to develop your own young players. The Giants are finally on the right track with this, and they need to do more.

Armando Benitez countdown to 300 saves: 281

by rxmeister on Apr 9, 2007 6:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

Aside from their young pitchers, what do the Giants have that will command much in return? Right now Matt Morris and Randy Winn appear to be overpaid, although a couple of good months could change that perception. Noah Lowry probably has value, but isn't he part of the young pitching?

Ray Durham and Omar Vizquel would seem to have value, but the Giants have no one to replace either of them. (Well, MAYBE Kevin Frandsen at the keystone.)

Dave Roberts might have a bit of value. Why was it again that the Giants signed him when they already had Winn and his no-trade clause? Is there truly an advantage to having two mediocre center field bats in the lineup?

I agree with you that the Giants really need Brian Sabean to pull off some of those great trades of the past. But over the past three years he seems to have lost his magic -- and the Giants don't really seem to have much to trade, at least not that they can afford to give up.

by sharksrog on Apr 9, 2007 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This day in Giants history:

In his first Major League at-bat, April 8, 1986, Will Clark homered off Nolan Ryan.

This makes me feel better about our past. Our future sucks.

Jack Mustachner

by The Thrill on Apr 8, 2007 9:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: This day in Giants history:

and this led to how many Will Clark led world championships??

Armando Benitez countdown to 300 saves: 281

by rxmeister on Apr 9, 2007 6:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Downer

You, my friend, are a purveyor of party poop.

Shitcan Feliz, please; Minor Izzy

by hairball on Apr 9, 2007 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

Wes C, I needed this. I am still unready to write off this season so soon, but you raise a good point that there are some good years in our future, possibly starting next year.

Angels fly because they take Brian Sabean lightly.

by Mayor of 311 on Apr 8, 2007 11:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

Do you honestly see any good years after this one over the rest of the decade? Who is going to hit? If the Giants can pick up Alex Rodriguez and Andruw Jones, I'm in.

by sharksrog on Apr 9, 2007 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

Andruwoo

Waiting for the Resurrection. Ask for Mr. Blue.

by victor frankenstein on Apr 9, 2007 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

NO Andruwoo!

Proud papa to Sergio Romo; and looking forward to adopting Josh Vitters!

by Lyle on Apr 10, 2007 6:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

YES Woo.
And while I'd love to show you why I think so here , it took me WAY too long to do it there..."there" being the diary Claim Him And Bat Him Cleanup.

Please go there , then come back here and 'splain to me why not.

Waiting for the Resurrection. Ask for Mr. Blue.

by victor frankenstein on Apr 10, 2007 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

OK , wait a minute. I screwed that up. DON'T go there...

Waiting for the Resurrection. Ask for Mr. Blue.

by victor frankenstein on Apr 10, 2007 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

...just keep scrolling!

This no - sleeping at night and baseball all day thing isn't working well.

Waiting for the Resurrection. Ask for Mr. Blue.

by victor frankenstein on Apr 10, 2007 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

My labor of Andruwoo love is at the bottom of this thread. Diary. Whatever.

Waiting for the Resurrection. Ask for Mr. Blue.

by victor frankenstein on Apr 10, 2007 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Linden, Schierholz, Frandsen

At least one of those 3 is gonna rip it up in the majors. I'm sure of it.

And I do think the Giants will get 1 great bat as a free agent.

I agree though on trades- the best case scenario is mid-season dumping of veterans for a basketful of young folks.

Shitcan Feliz, please; Minor Izzy

by hairball on Apr 9, 2007 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Linden, Schierholz, Frandsen

I'm not at all sure that at least one of this trio will rip it up in the majors, although I think both Todd Linden and Nate Schierholtz have a nice chance to become at least acceptable starters and Kevin Frandsen has a modest chance.

by sharksrog on Apr 9, 2007 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Linden, Schierholz, Frandsen

Ibid, but downgraded to "modest" and "outside". That's perhaps unfair to Nate who still has several development years on Todd at this point.

As for the firesale, I just can't see how anybody thinks that's realistic given our circumstances. Pete and Larry have repeatedly said they won't do it. Sabean's knows he's out the door if it gets that far, plus he's never shown himself all that astute at cherry picking young talent from others. And they just don't have all that much fire to sell. Florida's firesale II included Josh Beckett and Carlos Delgado -- Omar Vizquel and Matt Morris don't a fire sale make, they're more like one of those driving around in West Virginia and pass the trailer home where every item they own is sitting next to the road kind of sales.

by Roger on Apr 9, 2007 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Linden, Schierholz, Frandsen

I was kind of thinking Brian was instrumental in the Giants acquiring the young Rich Aurilia. As for not having enough fire to sell, you make a good point. On the other hand, I see no lack of dead wood with which to build the fire. :)

by sharksrog on Apr 9, 2007 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Linden, Schierholz, Frandsen

Yeah, I've heard that, too about Richie. On the other hand I've heard he was the guy who wanted the Yankees to get Danny Tartabull and Mel Hall, too :)

by Roger on Apr 9, 2007 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

Was I the only person in the world who was actually encouraged by Ortiz's start?

Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on Apr 9, 2007 12:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

He threw 90 MPH, which is a substantial improvement on pretty much anything he's done since signing with the D-Backs. Given the problems with the lineup and bullpen, it's hard to get excited about having a very good fifth starter. A 4ish ERA just doesn't play that well on a team that seems to need a CG shutout to notch a win.

Fool me seven times, shame on you. Fool me eight or more times, shame on me.

by Bhaakon on Apr 9, 2007 1:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

Well I didn't say I was encouraged by the offense, now did I? Clearly, that is another story altogether.

Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on Apr 9, 2007 4:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

You really think the lineup will be this bad the entire season?? You have a bad week at the start of the season and it sticks out like a sore thumb. Who do you think the best team in baseball will be this season?? The Mets? The Yankees?? The Red Sox?? You think they won't have a stretch this year when they lose 5 out of 6??

Armando Benitez countdown to 300 saves: 281

by rxmeister on Apr 9, 2007 6:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

I didn't say that I thought the offense could be this bad all year long. I said I'm not encouraged by what I've seen. All that translates to is that they've playe pretty crappy offense so far. It's pretty tough to be encouraged by something that has yet to perform well.

Really, I didn't say anything all that complicated. I like what Russ Ortiz did. I don't like what the offense did. Anything yet to come is a mystery. How is that even arguable? Much less twice?

Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on Apr 9, 2007 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

you stated that this team will be bad all season. You stated that it might come in last place, although you actually think Colorado is worse. All this under the guise of a headline stating, why we can be OPTIMISTIC!! What's your pessimistic view of the season then?? 1-161??

Armando Benitez countdown to 300 saves: 281

by rxmeister on Apr 9, 2007 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

Those comments don't exist in this thread. My memory is short so they might very well exist somewhere else (especially on a down day), but I don't remember ever counting the G's out this season seriously. Except for that seller's market comment I made in another thread. That one counts.

Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on Apr 9, 2007 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

I'm optimistic because I think we are in a rebuilding year even though it doesn't look and feel like one. I believe our bullpen will be very good by the end of this year, and our starting pitching is already pretty good and will be better next year. We need bats and they are gonna cost us, but we've got pitching and next year you'll understand why I was optimistic this year -- even though this year will suck.

wCovington

by wcovington on Apr 9, 2007 9:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

Yeah, I think the lineup will be pretty close to what it was this week for the rest of the year because it is pretty much the same as it was in 2005 and 2006. This is a team that in 2005 and 2006 was notorius for putting together many mini-losing streaks and had only one winning streak over 4 games in two years if I recollect correctly. One of the reasons they liked Schmidt and Morris 1-2 in the rotation was that they were supposed to kill off any streak of losses at 3. Neither was able to to do that and they ended up several games under .500.

Unless there are some drastic changes. Like dumping Feliz and Winn and hoping Linden and Kleiskro get hot, this team is just a continuation of the 2005-06 seasons. So far this season has seemed like one big Ground Hog Day.

Now having said that, I really liked the way Ortiz pitched. He looked pretty vintage and not what he looked like the prior two years. I certainly have higher expectations from Russ than either Tomko or Wright in prior seasons.

Save Matt Morris. Save The Pitchers. Save The World.

by E Ticket on Apr 9, 2007 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

No. No. No. Yes. And no. What was your point, Mark? :)

by sharksrog on Apr 9, 2007 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

Yes, but they have David Wright & Carlos Delgado & Carlos Beltran & Jose Reyes; or they have A-Rod & Jeter & Matsui & Abreu; or they have Big Papi & Manny & Lowell & Drew. Who do we have? Not a one. Not a one!

wCovington

by wcovington on Apr 9, 2007 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

wcovington, I agree with you in principle. But please, dear God, no Andruw Jones for the Giants. ARod I can get behind 101%, but not another overpriced overhyped outfielder.

Proud papa to Sergio Romo; and looking forward to adopting Josh Vitters!

by Lyle on Apr 9, 2007 6:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

imagine if we had gotten Andruw Jones this offseason, signed him to a huge extension, and he started off the year hitting about .100 like he is with the Braves. Giant fans would be leaping off of the Golden Gate bridge.

Armando Benitez countdown to 300 saves: 281

by rxmeister on Apr 9, 2007 6:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

No....that would have happened as soon as the ink was dry on the contract.

Save Matt Morris. Save The Pitchers. Save The World.

by E Ticket on Apr 9, 2007 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

True that. But it merely shows how foolish fans can be. If the Braves don't want Andruw, I'm sure the Giants would be willing to give up Dave Roberts for him. :)

by sharksrog on Apr 9, 2007 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why you can be optimistic

As a general rule I dislike optimism. Part of my whole "I'd rather be right than happy" approach to things. Skepticism -- now that's a philosophical stance to be proud of.

by Roger on Apr 9, 2007 8:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Neither too hot nor too cold

Skepticism gets a bad name. But it proudly holds the middle ground between cockeyed optimism and depressive cynicism.

The optimist dangerously disregards the plague while the cemetery is filling to capacity. The cynic has given up and chimes every hour that the sky is falling.

The skeptic takes the Goldilocks approach: Just Right.

And I've tried enough porridge. I'm feeling perfectly skeptical about the Giants' chances in the immediate future.

(Must be nappy time.)

by Moggeee on Apr 9, 2007 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The skeptic

Is just a thinly veiled cynic. Me, I'm cautiously optimistic about 2008, and wondering what the fuck will happen in 2007. I could still see us doing very well this year (signs of brilliance in our pitching staff, which is really all the Padres needed to win under Bochy), especially if Lincecum is called up.

Shitcan Feliz, please; Minor Izzy

by hairball on Apr 9, 2007 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I demonstrate how a skirmish escalates to war

To an optimist, the skeptic is a thinly veiled cynic.

To a skeptic, the optimist is a scantily clad lunatic.

;-)

by Moggeee on Apr 9, 2007 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: I demonstrate how a skirmish escalates to war

Well said, sir!

Proud papa to Sergio Romo; and looking forward to adopting Josh Vitters!

by Lyle on Apr 10, 2007 6:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: The skeptic

What is it that makes you even CAUTIOUSLY optimistic about the post-Barry era?

by sharksrog on Apr 9, 2007 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scruw Youw...

..or "Victor Tries On The Stat Suit"

This is uncharted (Pun?) water for me...but I actually think Andruwoo would be a pretty f'in good investment.
First , go ahead and piss on his start this year...your piss in Philly and Atlanta would freeze on the ground. It's been that cold there , somewhat of a performance inhibitor.
Second...what the hell is OPS , anyway?

AB HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS
AJ '05 586 51 128 .263 .347 .575 .922
'06 565 41 129 .262 .363 .531 .894

DR '05 411 8 38 .275 .356 .428 .784
'06 499 2 44 .293 .360 .393 .753

RW '05* 573 20 63 .317 .365 .535 .900
'06 603 11 56 .262 .324 .396 .720

Mr. Woo has been the recipient of a Gold Glove for his leatherwork every year since 1998. Of course , they hand those out like candy to EVERY OF...right? Right?
His SO rate's a bit up there...up 10 to 127 in'06.
Randy actually is improving , with 98 in '04 , 91 in '05 and 63 in '06. Huh.
Roberts has as keen an eye with 61 last year.

Obviously , AJ benefitted from good OBP from the batters ahead of him...and the Braves still bit it last year...Oh , Leo.
I think if we could get people on ahead of him we could duplicate those numbers here.
Go look at his career sheet yerself...it's impressive. He's very consistent.

And he's 29.

I'd give him Zito money because I think he increases the Win Probability more than a fifth - day starter.

Besides...it's not my money.

Waiting for the Resurrection. Ask for Mr. Blue.

by victor frankenstein on Apr 9, 2007 11:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs