McCovey Chronicles: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Once A Metro covering Red Bull New York!

Building a Better Lineup

Dear Bruce,

Two games, two identical lineups. Who do you think you are, Dusty Baker? Since you seem to be still goofing around with your new roster (Niekro against Peavy! Alfonzo against Hoffman! You kidder, you!), I thought I'd give you a few tips for filling out the lineup card tonight.

First, don't listen to what anybody says -- it doesn't much matter whether Bonds hits third or fourth, or that Ray Durham isn't a classic cleanup hitter. What you need to worry about is that for the last two nights you've had a solid 1-4 and then a horrid string of punchless free-swingers. Check out the numbers vs righties (2004-06) for your 5/6/7 hitters:

.268 .320 .411
.260 .300 .384
.254 .288 .441

That's ugly. Really ugly. In essence, you're following your cleanup hitter with three Pedro Felizes in a row. Plus, don't you want to break these guys up so it's harder for the opposing manager to choose a reliever in the late innings?

What to do? Two quick fixes:

  1. Move Winn up. Against right-handers, Winn and Durham are basically indistinguishable: .299 .358 .463 vs .277 .352 .462. Batting one of them cleanup while the other hits eighth is just silly. Even if you do think it's kind of cool when the number eight hitter is speedy.
  2. Get Klesko in the lineup. I've been pessimistic about Klesko and I still am, but with this roster, there's no choice but to play him every day against RHPs and see what happens. Maybe he can come back and maybe he can't, but there's really nothing to lose, because your alternatives (Aurilia and Feliz) can't hit right-handers at all.
Now, against lefties, you have a different set of problems. Two of the guys I was complaining about absolutely rake against lefties:

Aurilia: .294 .362 .505
Molina: .340 .373 .566

Not only that, but little Ray really is a legit cleanup hitter against lefties:

Durham: .325 .386 .552

Follow Bonds with those three guys and you're going to light up the scoreboard like a pinball machine. Unfortunately, you have to sit down your leadoff man. Don't get fancy; just let Todd Linden hit leadoff against lefties. I know, I know, he's big and not particularly fast, so he doesn't look like a leadoff man; but he'll get on base more often than anyone else you have for the job. (Too bad about Jason Ellison, though -- would've been fun to see whether he was really a .320 .369 .476 hitter against lefties.)

So, to recap:

vs. righthanders
Roberts
Vizquel
Bonds
Durham
Klesko
Winn
Molina
Aurilia or Feliz

vs. lefthanders
Linden
Vizquel
Bonds
Durham
Molina
Aurilia
Winn
Feliz

Give it a try. You'll thank me later. You're on your own with that bullpen, though.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

0 recs  |  Comment 42 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Preach on, brother.
David
Sportszilla -- Kickass Sports Writing
McC adoptee: EME

by David Arnott on Apr 5, 2007 5:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
My #1 lineup against righthanders would be:

Roberts   CF
Vizquel   SS
Klesko    1B
Bonds     LF
Durham    2B
Aurilia   SS
Winn      RF
Molina    C

And against lefties:

Winn     CF
Vizquel  SS
Linden   RF
Bonds    LF
Durham   2B
Molina   C
Aurilia  1B
Feliz    3B

Please give me one or more reasons to bat Bonds third that offsets the high number of times he'll come to bat with two outs and no one on there.  The third hitter comes to bat in that situation far more often than any other hitter in the lineup.  Because of that, the old saw of batting your best (not most powerful) hitter third should be subject to considerable question.

Would you INTENTIONALLY bat a hitter as good as Bonds in a position in which he will come to the plate with two outs and no one on in his first trip to the plate nearly half the time?  And if so, why?

by sharksrog on Apr 5, 2007 5:08 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Lineup construction matters. It's just that it's almost trivial in comparison to getting the correct players in the lineup to begin with. Given that we properly choose WHICH players to use, we're talking about three wins per year coming from an idealized squeezing of every last drop from the batting order. That'd be great. But we've gotta get the best players for the job, first.

Let's not forget sheer luck, either.

David
Sportszilla -- Kickass Sports Writing
McC adoptee: EME

by David Arnott on Apr 5, 2007 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Devil's advocate:

Bonds is the player in the lineup most likely to create a run with two outs and no one on.

Not that it offsets what you've already laid out.

Mike McBryde ... A Giants' prospect that won't kidnap and kill you.

WITFAC

by squirrel on Apr 5, 2007 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Say what?  If you had a guy who would be a fine president for your company but he would be the most valuable janitor, you would employ him only as a janitor?

Would you like to see Barry come to the plate EVERY time with two outs and no one on in order to take advantage of his being the Giants best hitter in that situation?  Personally I would rather see him up with the bases loaded and no outs.

Barry has now batted four times in three games with two outs and no one on.  No other player on the team done so more than twice.  Barry has a full quarter of the team's such situations.

Bengie Molina has started all three games, but has yet to bat even once in such a situation.

by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 1:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Meaningless!  Roberts and Vizquel will not continue to get on base at just a .308 and .231 clip the rest of the year.  There is every reason to believe that they will each get on base at an above .350 clip which means that one or the other will be on base infront of Bonds at least 58% of the time and both will be on base infront of Barry at least 12% of this at least 58%.  Tell me, just where else in the batting order could Barry bat that would give him runners on base 58% of the time?

by giantsrainman on Apr 6, 2007 1:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
I like your math here.  It pretty much proves my point.

Yes,ignoring home runs and double plays, Barry WILL come to the plate with at least one runner on base 58% of the time his first trip to the plate.  But using the same calculations, he will come to the plate with at least one runner on base neary 73% of the time batting cleanup.  In addition, his chances of having multiple runners on base are greater.  And he actually HAS a chance of coming to the plate with the bases loaded. Batting third, he has no such opportunity.

Your math was good here, but your logic was questionable.

by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
In direct answer to your question as to where else in the batting order could Barry be guaranteed coming to the plate with at least one runner on base 58% of the time in his first at bat, the obvious answer is batting cleanup, where using the same calculations, he would come to the plate with at least one runner on 73% of the time.  Fair enough?

by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
My only disagreement right now is that I would keep Roberts in the lineup against lefties for now. He hit them well last year, and he hit them well in spring training, and he deserves a shot. He's been a real spark plug in the lineup these first three games, and I would sure hate to see Randy Winn leading things off for us. He looks horrible right now. And Roberts is running everything down in centerfield, something Winn simply doesn't do.
Armando Benitez countdown to 300 saves: 281

by rxmeister on Apr 6, 2007 6:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
.310 obp against lefties last year ... nicht so gut. He did better the year before, but what little power he has disappears against lefties, and he seems to have a harder time stealing against them too.

I'd say give him a shot against lefties anyway if we didn't have Linden. I want that guy to get as many at-bats as possible.  

by Evan on Apr 6, 2007 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
I think you have to give Roberts a shot at the lefties early and if it doesn't work out, you make the move to Linden. An outfield of Linden in center and Bonds in left is scary though. That was a great catch by Bonds on Wednesday, but if he has to do that a few more times, he's going to get hurt. And with Todd Linden in centerfield, Bonds will have to cover alot more ground than he has to when Roberts is playing.
Armando Benitez countdown to 300 saves: 281

by rxmeister on Apr 6, 2007 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
By the way...up close and personal at that game Wednesday night, i thought for sure Bonds was hurt.  He went down into a crouch by the dugout and was rubbing the hamstring in the on deck circle a few minutes later..

by bisquik on Apr 6, 2007 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Ironic, isn't it, that a year ago there was much discussion about Randy Winn batting third, while this year the discussion was about his batting eighth?  What a difference a year makes.

by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
I'm not sure that "discussion" is the right word. I think this was a decision made by Bochy, and I don't recall Giant fans thinking that he should hit eighth. Certainly if Giant fans had their druthers, Feliz would be hitting eighth if he had to play at all. Bochy is already second guessing himself, and he has said he will probably move Winn up, maybe even starting tonight.
Armando Benitez countdown to 300 saves: 281

by rxmeister on Apr 6, 2007 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Hitting Klesko in front of Bonds makes some sense, but I'd rather have Durham between them for late-game matchup reasons.

You may be right about hitting Bonds fourth, I dunno. But I'm convinced that the advantage gained, if there is one, is tiny. The two out, no one on situation sucks, yes, and is to some extent a waste of his talents. But the other way of looking at that, as squirrel said, is that the Giants are a lot more likely to score a run in that situation with Bonds at the plate than anyone else. Each inning is precious; you only have nine shots in which to score. You can't punt the first in order to improve your chances in the second.

My biggest objection to Bonds hitting fourth is what I was getting at in the original post: After the cleanup hitter, whoever he is, the offense comes to a screeching halt against RHPs. Bonds's on-base ability is an even greater skill than his power, so I want a string of solid hitters behind him. That's a lot harder to do when he's hitting fourth.

And the 15-20 extra plate appearances from hitting him third make a difference too.

by Evan on Apr 6, 2007 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Ray Durham did a good enough job batting behind Barry last season that Barry had 43 fewer walks and 24 fewer intentional walks AFTER the All-Star break than before, despite having 11 more at bats.

Prior to looking this up, I would have had no idea that Barry has just seven intentional walks after the All-Star game compared to 31 before the Summer Classic.  That's an incredible difference.  Probably the largest in history.

by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Even more astonishing (love that word) when you consider how much better Barry looked in the 2nd half last year.
you can't handle the truth or Ryan Klesko!

by Goofus on Apr 6, 2007 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
You've got the right guys. That's most important.  If we're talking "ideal lineup", where the players wouldn't revolt because they think we're crazy, let's tweak this a bit...

vs. Righties
CF Roberts
2B Durham
RF Winn
LF Bonds
1B Klesko
C Molina
3B Aurilia
Pitcher
SS Vizquel

vs. Lefties
2B Durham
RF Linden
3B Feliz
LF Bonds
C Molina
1B Aurilia
SS Vizquel
Pitcher
CF Winn

I can actually talk myself into seeing how reasonable those are, ingrained "truth" of lineup construction be damned.

David
Sportszilla -- Kickass Sports Writing
McC adoptee: EME

by David Arnott on Apr 5, 2007 6:14 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Hitting the pitcher eighth ... sooner or later this is going to catch on, I think. Every time I play around with that Lineup Analysis tool, it tells me that the best lineup has Bonds first, the pitcher eighth, and Vizquel or Roberts ninth. Which makes sense when you think about it: You start the game with a bang, you maximize the plate appearances for your best hitter, and you ensure that he has an OBP guy in front of him in all the following innings.

by Evan on Apr 6, 2007 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Yeah, but there's just no way you're ever going to tell a professional hitter that you're putting him behind the pitcher in the order without creating a palace revolt.

by Roger on Apr 6, 2007 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Didn't LaRussa try this a few years ago? I can't remember how that played out.

You wouldn't have any problems if that number nine hitter was a rookie, preferably a career minor leaguer finally getting his shot, like Dave Roberts a few years ago. After a while, it would become apparent to everyone that the indignity of hitting behind the pitcher was outweighed by the fact that the number nine hitter is in fact leading off for the best part of the lineup.

by Evan on Apr 6, 2007 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
In a best-case scenario, but remember two things: 1) the most important managerial skill is the ability to manage huge egos and 2) the mainstream media loves to abuse anything new and out of the ordinary and would likely start a day-by-day harassment campaign like they did a couple of years ago with Boston's closer-by-committee experiment until they can all cheer the dead carcass of the noble experiment.

by Roger on Apr 6, 2007 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
One possible disadvantage of batting the pitcher eighth is that just as the Giants are trying to save Barry that one extra inning before taking him out of the game for a defensive replacement by moving him up one spot in the order, the pitcher would also wind up coming out an inning early for a pinch hitter if he moved up one spot in the order.

by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Bochy seems to be thinking along these lines.
Tonight's lineup:

Roberts CF (switchhitter hitting lefthanded)
Vizquel SS (switchhitter hitting lefthanded)
Bonds LF (lefthanded)
Durham 2B (switchhitter hitting lefthanded)
Aurilia 3B (righthanded)
Klesko 1B (lefthanded)
Molina C (righthanded)
Winn RF (switchhitter hitting righthanded)

Note that the last 4 go right left right left with the top four all hitting from the left side.  I like this lineup better then your proposed lineup against righties because two righties never bat back to back.

by giantsrainman on Apr 5, 2007 6:42 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Silly me, Roberts is not a switchhitter he is strickly lefthanded like Bonds and Klesko.

by giantsrainman on Apr 5, 2007 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Man, two mistakes in one post.  Winn is indeed a switchhitter but he will be hitting lefthanded (not righthanded) against a righthanded starting pitcher like Hensley.

by giantsrainman on Apr 5, 2007 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
I hear you about the right/left/right/left alternation, but I'd still put Klesko fifth because Aurilia is feeble against RHPs; you don't want him following the core of the lineup. You could make it Klesko/Aurilia/Winn/Molina instead and still have that alternation.

by Evan on Apr 6, 2007 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
No Feliz tonight?  I might watch this one.  
Zealously advocating for Nate the Great since 2007.

by orangeandblackattack on Apr 5, 2007 6:48 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
feliz sits, we win.  hmmmmm.
2002? I'm over it. But I'll never be over Rich Aurilia.

by wjackalope on Apr 5, 2007 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Is there any chance this year that Feliz gets more hits than Ks? We should have a running total this year to see how his progress is. Right now the score is Ks: 3, Hits: 2

by joebirdie3 on Apr 5, 2007 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Pedro has had at least as many hits as strike outs every single season of his career, so I think he's got a shot at it.

by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Bochy said he is sitting Aurilia tonight to get Klesko in the lineup once again. He's going to have to figure something out, because Klesko is clearly a better option than Pedro Feliz against righthanders. And the best thing was that Rich Aurilia looked damn good at third base last night. If he was worried about the defensive dropoff, last night showed it shouldn't be a consideration. He didn't even feel the need to bring in Pedro late for defense.
Armando Benitez countdown to 300 saves: 281

by rxmeister on Apr 6, 2007 6:39 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
I'm lovin' all this lovin' for my boy Ryan!  Obviously last night's 3 hits was cool, but the walk he drew the night before after getting behind 0-2.  He's shown to be a good on-base guy and we saw it in that AB.

If all you bastards are so intent on net letting him hit against LHP, why not go with a Niekro/Klesko platoon?  I've got more confidnce in Niekro against LHP than I do in Feliz against any pitching.  Make Richie the everyday 3B and Feliz can be a defensive replacement and 5th OF.

you can't handle the truth or Ryan Klesko!

by Goofus on Apr 6, 2007 8:00 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
This I like!  Who needs this Bochy character when we've got Goofus?
Proud papa to Sergio Romo; and looking forward to adopting Josh Vitters!

by Lyle on Apr 6, 2007 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
I'd go for that. The 2005 Niekro was a lefty-crushing monster who was helpless against righties, but last year his splits evened out. I'd actually prefer the 2005 version to be the real one; he's just not good enough to play every day, but if he can handle lefties, he's a pretty valuable platoon player.

by Evan on Apr 6, 2007 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
You would seem to be correct here.  Pedro has hit only .265/.306/.454/.760 against southpaws over his career, while Lance has pounded them to the tune of .296/.330/.574/.904.  And while Pedro is indeed a better fielder than Lance, Lance is the Giants best-fielding first baseman, just as Pedro remains their best fielder at the hot corner.

by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
With the upgrade in offense you get from Lance against LHP, I'll tkae my chances with Richie's defense.
you can't handle the truth or Ryan Klesko!

by Goofus on Apr 6, 2007 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
I like this as well. I was a little worried about the defensive dropoff from Feliz to Aurilia, but Rich looked decent at third last night, and Pedro could always be a 5 million dollar defensive replacement. I see this happening, although not right away.
Armando Benitez countdown to 300 saves: 281

by rxmeister on Apr 6, 2007 9:22 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
Why didn't the Giants sign Aubrey Huff instead of Pedro?  And a year ago, why didn't they sign Russ Branyan as a mere $600 K complement to Pedro at the hot corner?  Apparently they didn't want to deprive Russ of a chance to play in the postseason.

by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
I read all the above comments.

I thought about the fact that Pedro Feliz will probably start over 2/3 of the games this year.

I vomited.

Man, it really is insane, isn't it? What makes me sad is just how much better any lineup looks on paper when u remove Feliz from it and add Klesko. As for the Bonds 3rd/4th, it clearly won't make a big enough difference to matter. Well, ok, if the giants finish one game out of the playoffs, then it would be one of 50 things that could have caused them to miss out.

My VORP is higher than Merkin's VORP.

by Poe on Apr 6, 2007 3:30 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Building a Better Lineup
The thing is that a team needs to maximize as many of those 50 things as it can.  If it can control just one-tenth of those things positively, that's an extra five wins.

by sharksrog on Apr 7, 2007 1:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about San Francisco Giants.
Start posting about the Giants »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

Cbs_fantasy_baseball_promo

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Fawlty_small
Adopt A Giant 2010: Attack of the Prospects (sfoakbay and Chulk)
Romo_small
Baseball in concert
Picture_4_small
Spring Training photos 3/4, and 3/6
Mitchreport_small
Bedrock
Romo_small
Help Baron! Get a baseball story!

Recent FanPosts

N16115505_31581383_8646_small
Giants Season Preview
Fridge_666_small
OT: possible 1 year subscription to MLB.TV for $19.95 - YMMV
20657_267204626776_533121776_3858048_7909068_n_small
The ninth inning that wouldn't end and more
Images_small
Has anyone thought this too
Quincy_small
Trading Defense for Offense
Small
Halfway point (ish) quick ST hitting analysis
Small
Amazin' Avenue talking bout Fred Lewis?
Favicon1_small
Giants Prospects
20657_267204626776_533121776_3858048_7909068_n_small
POKEMONZ Fantasy League: Draft next Saturday!
Small
Posey

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SPONSORS

SBNation.com Recent Stories

From foreground left, San Francisco Giants pitchers Joe Martinez, Matt Cain and Brian Wilson run in the outfield during baseball spring training at Scottsdale Stadium in Scottsdale, Ariz., Thursday, Feb. 18, 2010. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

SB Nation's 2010 MLB Previews: San Francisco Giants, No Thunder In The Lumber

Milwaukee Brewers' Casey McGehee signs autographs before a spring training baseball game against the Cleveland Indians on Monday, March 15, 2010, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Morry Gash) +6 updates

Spring Training News & Notes 3/16: Catching Up With Everyone

New York Yankees' Robinson Cano follows through on his 200th career hit during a baseball game against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens) link

Is Robinson Cano A Good Choice To Hit Behind A-Rod?

More from SBNation.com >


Overlord

174246766_ea2fd78204_small Grant

Minions

Dog2_small kenshin1

Munnyme_small Natto

Fawlty_small WalrusMan

Goofus_small Goofus

Howtheyscoredcat_small howtheyscored

Det_7193_small jponry

Minor League Guru

Small steve S