Building a Better Lineup
Dear Bruce,
Two games, two identical lineups. Who do you think you are, Dusty Baker? Since you seem to be still goofing around with your new roster (Niekro against Peavy! Alfonzo against Hoffman! You kidder, you!), I thought I'd give you a few tips for filling out the lineup card tonight.
First, don't listen to what anybody says -- it doesn't much matter whether Bonds hits third or fourth, or that Ray Durham isn't a classic cleanup hitter. What you need to worry about is that for the last two nights you've had a solid 1-4 and then a horrid string of punchless free-swingers. Check out the numbers vs righties (2004-06) for your 5/6/7 hitters:
.268 .320 .411
.260 .300 .384
.254 .288 .441
That's ugly. Really ugly. In essence, you're following your cleanup hitter with three Pedro Felizes in a row. Plus, don't you want to break these guys up so it's harder for the opposing manager to choose a reliever in the late innings?
What to do? Two quick fixes:
- Move Winn up. Against right-handers, Winn and Durham are basically indistinguishable: .299 .358 .463 vs .277 .352 .462. Batting one of them cleanup while the other hits eighth is just silly. Even if you do think it's kind of cool when the number eight hitter is speedy.
- Get Klesko in the lineup. I've been pessimistic about Klesko and I still am, but with this roster, there's no choice but to play him every day against RHPs and see what happens. Maybe he can come back and maybe he can't, but there's really nothing to lose, because your alternatives (Aurilia and Feliz) can't hit right-handers at all.
Aurilia: .294 .362 .505
Molina: .340 .373 .566
Not only that, but little Ray really is a legit cleanup hitter against lefties:
Durham: .325 .386 .552
Follow Bonds with those three guys and you're going to light up the scoreboard like a pinball machine. Unfortunately, you have to sit down your leadoff man. Don't get fancy; just let Todd Linden hit leadoff against lefties. I know, I know, he's big and not particularly fast, so he doesn't look like a leadoff man; but he'll get on base more often than anyone else you have for the job. (Too bad about Jason Ellison, though -- would've been fun to see whether he was really a .320 .369 .476 hitter against lefties.)
So, to recap:
vs. righthanders
Roberts
Vizquel
Bonds
Durham
Klesko
Winn
Molina
Aurilia or Feliz
vs. lefthanders
Linden
Vizquel
Bonds
Durham
Molina
Aurilia
Winn
Feliz
Give it a try. You'll thank me later. You're on your own with that bullpen, though.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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42 comments
Comments
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by mxmob33 on Apr 5, 2007 4:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by David Arnott on Apr 5, 2007 5:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
Roberts CF
Vizquel SS
Klesko 1B
Bonds LF
Durham 2B
Aurilia SS
Winn RF
Molina C
And against lefties:
Winn CF
Vizquel SS
Linden RF
Bonds LF
Durham 2B
Molina C
Aurilia 1B
Feliz 3B
Please give me one or more reasons to bat Bonds third that offsets the high number of times he'll come to bat with two outs and no one on there. The third hitter comes to bat in that situation far more often than any other hitter in the lineup. Because of that, the old saw of batting your best (not most powerful) hitter third should be subject to considerable question.
Would you INTENTIONALLY bat a hitter as good as Bonds in a position in which he will come to the plate with two outs and no one on in his first trip to the plate nearly half the time? And if so, why?
by sharksrog on Apr 5, 2007 5:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
Let's not forget sheer luck, either.
by David Arnott on Apr 5, 2007 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
Bonds is the player in the lineup most likely to create a run with two outs and no one on.
Not that it offsets what you've already laid out.
by squirrel on Apr 5, 2007 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
Would you like to see Barry come to the plate EVERY time with two outs and no one on in order to take advantage of his being the Giants best hitter in that situation? Personally I would rather see him up with the bases loaded and no outs.
Barry has now batted four times in three games with two outs and no one on. No other player on the team done so more than twice. Barry has a full quarter of the team's such situations.
Bengie Molina has started all three games, but has yet to bat even once in such a situation.
by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 1:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by giantsrainman on Apr 6, 2007 1:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
Yes,ignoring home runs and double plays, Barry WILL come to the plate with at least one runner on base 58% of the time his first trip to the plate. But using the same calculations, he will come to the plate with at least one runner on base neary 73% of the time batting cleanup. In addition, his chances of having multiple runners on base are greater. And he actually HAS a chance of coming to the plate with the bases loaded. Batting third, he has no such opportunity.
Your math was good here, but your logic was questionable.
by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by rxmeister on Apr 6, 2007 6:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
I'd say give him a shot against lefties anyway if we didn't have Linden. I want that guy to get as many at-bats as possible.
by Evan on Apr 6, 2007 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by rxmeister on Apr 6, 2007 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by bisquik on Apr 6, 2007 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by rxmeister on Apr 6, 2007 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
You may be right about hitting Bonds fourth, I dunno. But I'm convinced that the advantage gained, if there is one, is tiny. The two out, no one on situation sucks, yes, and is to some extent a waste of his talents. But the other way of looking at that, as squirrel said, is that the Giants are a lot more likely to score a run in that situation with Bonds at the plate than anyone else. Each inning is precious; you only have nine shots in which to score. You can't punt the first in order to improve your chances in the second.
My biggest objection to Bonds hitting fourth is what I was getting at in the original post: After the cleanup hitter, whoever he is, the offense comes to a screeching halt against RHPs. Bonds's on-base ability is an even greater skill than his power, so I want a string of solid hitters behind him. That's a lot harder to do when he's hitting fourth.
And the 15-20 extra plate appearances from hitting him third make a difference too.
by Evan on Apr 6, 2007 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
Prior to looking this up, I would have had no idea that Barry has just seven intentional walks after the All-Star game compared to 31 before the Summer Classic. That's an incredible difference. Probably the largest in history.
by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by Goofus on Apr 6, 2007 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
vs. Righties
CF Roberts
2B Durham
RF Winn
LF Bonds
1B Klesko
C Molina
3B Aurilia
Pitcher
SS Vizquel
vs. Lefties
2B Durham
RF Linden
3B Feliz
LF Bonds
C Molina
1B Aurilia
SS Vizquel
Pitcher
CF Winn
I can actually talk myself into seeing how reasonable those are, ingrained "truth" of lineup construction be damned.
by David Arnott on Apr 5, 2007 6:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by Evan on Apr 6, 2007 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by Roger on Apr 6, 2007 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
You wouldn't have any problems if that number nine hitter was a rookie, preferably a career minor leaguer finally getting his shot, like Dave Roberts a few years ago. After a while, it would become apparent to everyone that the indignity of hitting behind the pitcher was outweighed by the fact that the number nine hitter is in fact leading off for the best part of the lineup.
by Evan on Apr 6, 2007 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by Roger on Apr 6, 2007 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
Tonight's lineup:
Roberts CF (switchhitter hitting lefthanded)
Vizquel SS (switchhitter hitting lefthanded)
Bonds LF (lefthanded)
Durham 2B (switchhitter hitting lefthanded)
Aurilia 3B (righthanded)
Klesko 1B (lefthanded)
Molina C (righthanded)
Winn RF (switchhitter hitting righthanded)
Note that the last 4 go right left right left with the top four all hitting from the left side. I like this lineup better then your proposed lineup against righties because two righties never bat back to back.
by giantsrainman on Apr 5, 2007 6:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by giantsrainman on Apr 5, 2007 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by giantsrainman on Apr 5, 2007 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by Evan on Apr 6, 2007 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by orangeandblackattack on Apr 5, 2007 6:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by wjackalope on Apr 5, 2007 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by joebirdie3 on Apr 5, 2007 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by rxmeister on Apr 6, 2007 6:39 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
If all you bastards are so intent on net letting him hit against LHP, why not go with a Niekro/Klesko platoon? I've got more confidnce in Niekro against LHP than I do in Feliz against any pitching. Make Richie the everyday 3B and Feliz can be a defensive replacement and 5th OF.
by Goofus on Apr 6, 2007 8:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by Lyle on Apr 6, 2007 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by Evan on Apr 6, 2007 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by Goofus on Apr 6, 2007 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by rxmeister on Apr 6, 2007 9:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by sharksrog on Apr 6, 2007 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
I thought about the fact that Pedro Feliz will probably start over 2/3 of the games this year.
I vomited.
Man, it really is insane, isn't it? What makes me sad is just how much better any lineup looks on paper when u remove Feliz from it and add Klesko. As for the Bonds 3rd/4th, it clearly won't make a big enough difference to matter. Well, ok, if the giants finish one game out of the playoffs, then it would be one of 50 things that could have caused them to miss out.
by Poe on Apr 6, 2007 3:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Building a Better Lineup
by sharksrog on Apr 7, 2007 1:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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