Best defense in baseball?

by Evan on Apr 27, 2007 7:29 AM PDT

So far this year, the Giants have a Defensive Efficiency Ratio (that's the percentage of batted balls turned into outs) of .732, best in the National League and second to the White Sox overall. By the plus/minus system, the Giants' fielders have made 22 outs above average, best in baseball.

(link to Hardball Times team stats)

Can they keep it up? Probably not. For one thing, the best-fielding team last year, San Diego, finished with 91 outs above average and a DER of .703; the Giants are way ahead of that pace. For another, they've been playing three regulars (Feliz, Winn, and Aurilia at first) who have good gloves but don't really hit enough for their positions, and Bochy is already shaking that up in search of more runs.

But still, this was a good defense last year and it looks to be a lot better this year. Not bad for a bunch of old guys.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: Best defense in baseball?

I don't know how valid DER is in terms of credibility in evaluating worth of a defense. It seems like a pretty cool stat. It seems to confirm what we are seeing. Slightly above average defenders, playing out of their trees and flashing leather like the playing field was an S&M bar, making the difficult look routinge, and the impossible, possible. (Omar's flip/pivot on the dp to end the 8th inning Wednesday night)

Gutty pitching and great defense are my favorite parts of the game.

Save Matt Morris. Save The Pitchers. Save The World.

by E Ticket on Apr 27, 2007 7:57 AM PDT reply actions

Re: Best defense in baseball?

There is a lot of luck in DER. It doesn't pretend to be a very predictive statistic.

The fact that the DER is so freakishly high is an indication that the fielders are getting lucky, and we shouldn't expect this to continue.

But then, we knew that anyway. I doubt the Giants are going to win every game till the end of the season!

by Salemicus on Apr 27, 2007 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions

I disagree...

somewhat. DER is by far the best team defense evaluation tool available to the general public. A team which maintains a good DER throughout season pretty definatively is a good defense.

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Apr 27, 2007 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: I disagree...

Kenshin, I love you, but this is nonsense.

DER is simply the ratio of balls in play the defense turns into outs. But all balls aren't created equal. It's much easier to turn an infield popup into an out than it is a screaming liner. Ditto FB/GB. It's easier to turn groundballs into outs on grass than astroturf, and so on. Then the size of the park, etc. So clearly you need to make major adjustments based on the ball types the pitching staff is giving up, and the ballpark. DER does none of this. It would be possible, however, to come up with a composite, park-adjusted, ball-type adjusted DER, call it *DER.

But even this doesn't take into account luck. The fact is that DER fluctuates wildly from season to season, even behind the same pitcher, and with the same defense. Why? Because (1 - DER) = Pitcher's BABIP, and we all know that a pitcher's BABIP is a fluky stat, because of dumb luck.

by Salemicus on Apr 27, 2007 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: I disagree...

It would be possible, however, to come up with a composite, park-adjusted, ball-type adjusted DER

This is pretty much what Dewan's plus/minus numbers do, though expressed in terms of outs rather than as a percentage. The plus/minus numbers that I cited from the Hardball Times are, if I understand this correctly, a sort of pastiche that approximate Dewan's numbers.

The fact that a pitcher's BABIP is fluky shouldn't obscure the actual accomplishments of the fielders behind him. I suspect that literal "dumb luck" is actually a pretty small part of BABIP fluctuation; it has much more to do with the fact that the quality of his pitching doesn't stay the same over time, the type and quality of the hitters he faces is constantly shifting, the quality of his fielders is constantly shifting, parks change, weather changes, etc. The problem is that you can't hold any of these factors steady long enough to get a decent sample size.

Anyway, I think you're overstating the fluctations of DER a bit. The teams rated highly last year tend to be the same ones rated highly this year.

by Evan on Apr 27, 2007 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: I disagree...

The fact is that DER fluctuates wildly from season to season, even behind the same pitcher, and with the same defense

Is this true?

2 points:

you have convinced me that I overstated my case
DER remains the best stat available for team defense IMO

Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Apr 27, 2007 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Best defense in baseball?

Dave Roberts and Ray Durham have both looked better than I expected. Roberts can really go get 'em in center, and Durham has looked mighty spry on the infield.

by Dan from NM on Apr 27, 2007 10:34 AM PDT reply actions

Re: Best defense in baseball?

Yes, and Roberts in CF has the domino effect of Winn in RF being an upgrade over Moises was well.

The force is strong in Ryan Klesko. We'll rule the galaxy as father and son. 296/345/407 as of 4/24/07

by Goofus on Apr 27, 2007 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Best defense in baseball?

Like that one ball that Winn had to chase down late in the game running hard to his left. No way Moises would have had the speed to get there. I'll take Randy's speed and sure hands over a strong arm anyday. If you can't get to it two things cannot happen.

You can't catch it.
You can't cut if off.
In which case your strong arm is only good for picking your ass/nose/or rearranging your junk on Fox Sports.

Save Matt Morris. Save The Pitchers. Save The World.

by E Ticket on Apr 27, 2007 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Best defense in baseball?

I would credit the pitching of Matt Cain as much for the Giants high DER as the actual Giants defense. While I think a bit of it has been luck, Matt has thus far shown an incredible ability to not allow many hits on Balls In Play.

by sharksrog on Apr 27, 2007 1:56 PM PDT reply actions

Re: Best defense in baseball?

Um, no. The low BABIP against Cain is only a small part of what's going on. Even if Cain had some crazy-high BABIP, say .400, it would only be enough to drag the overall team defensive efficiency back to league average. And of course, arguing that any pitcher has a profound effect on BABIP flies in the face of all evidence.

by Evan on Apr 27, 2007 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Best defense in baseball?

I strongly disagree. Barry Zito's career (and I might add Maddux's and Glavine's) shows that pitchers can have a strong effect on BABIP. The notation that it is reasonable to assume that for all pitchers BABIP will eventually regress to the mean of .300 is the most worthless and wrong thinking assumption of that Stat Nurd community. The art of pitching is no getting swing thrus, the art of pitching is getting the ball off the sweet spot on the bat resulting in weak fly balls, pop ups, or ground balls and thus low BABIP.

by giantsrainman on Apr 27, 2007 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Best defense in baseball?

Fly ball pitchers as a group have a lower BABIP against than ground ball pitchers as a group. But Matt somehow carries it further. I DO think some of it is luck, but it has been to a great enough extent for long enough that I am beginning to believe some of it is real.

Just like Barry Zito somehow allows fewer base runners to score than most pitchers.

If you are saying that if Matt's BABIP were .400 it would bring their DER up to average, it sounds as if you're verifying that a decent part of the Giants low DER is due to their tremendous DER when Matt is pitching.

by sharksrog on Apr 27, 2007 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions

Glavine

I'm curious what your opinion of Tom Glavine is. 1st ballot HOFer or lucky and overrated?

by rfloh on Apr 28, 2007 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions

Re: Glavine

Glavine has a career babip-against of .286, versus a league average around .300. Over the course of his career, that's a savings of about 180 hits, or ten a year. His babip-suppressing-ability is undoubtedly real, but it's just not a major component of what has made him a great pitcher.

by Evan on Apr 28, 2007 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions