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And I Just Took His Spy...

The Lowry-as-trade-bait topic has been discussed quite a bit. It might not be beating a dead horse to bring it up again, but it has to be close. Like, my miner is right in front of the bomb protecting the dead horse's flag. The idea keeps coming up in the comments, though, and the speculated bounty for Lowry has been somewhere between Manny Alexander and Miguel Cabrera. The situation as I see it:

  1. Lowry is a fan-favorite, and the Giants would probably prefer not to trade him. Homegrown pitchers make the world go 'round. But if Lowry could bring a good young power hitter back in a trade, the idea has to be at least explored.
  2. Lowry is locked up until 2009 for total of $8M, and he has a $6.25M option for 2010. If Lowry has a league-average ERA for the life of that contract, he's insanely valuable in the current market. Every August we can see that he at least has the potential to be more than an average innings-eater. An above-average pitcher with that contract is doubly insanely valuable with sprinkles on top.
  3. After last season, other teams might not be convinced he will continue to be average in the short- or long-term. As such, the "insanely valuable" part doesn't really apply when calculating trade value. The other teams will not want to pay a premium in talent to acquire a question mark.
If the Giants were to trade Lowry now, the maximum value they would get would probably be from a team assuming Lowry is an average pitcher at best. In the pitching-starved world of the present, an average pitcher who is underpaid might be enough to bring back a young power hitter. It might not. If a young player were to come back in the trade, it's likely they would have as many question marks as Lowry. The Giants' offense of the present and future will need more than question marks.

It makes sense to overvalue Lowry right now. The only thing the Giants have is pitching, and it would make sense to trade from a strength to improve a weakness, but it is worth it to find out if Lowry tops out as a comparison to Kirk Rueter or as a comparison to Mark Buehrle. That's the difference between a Jorge Cantu gamble and the start of a Carl Crawford package. And if Lowry does become an above-average pitcher, it might not be possible to get fair value back. The Giants would love to have that problem.

The risk is that Lowry devolves into a below-average pitcher or suffers an injury. That's a risk that's worth the reward for hanging on to him. No on Prop. 51...for now. Here are two links (a and b) to past Lowry trade threads if you just want to copy and paste your views, though his hot start might have changed your mind.

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A seat for every butt
Lowry is probably generally perceived as a league-average starter by most GMs.

But Giants' management must know that for every Barry Zito, there is a Brian Sabean who values a pitcher at twice the insanity of his insane brethren.

by Moggeee on Apr 24, 2007 12:09 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: A seat for every butt
Hello Brian? This is Brian. Cabrera? No. Hello Teresa? Brian here? Little E.? Only if you throw in a case of Bud and Tony Eury Jr. Okay. Done.

Noah will be making left hand turns and Earnhardt Jr. will be steppin out to the pimple every 5th day.

Save Matt Morris. Save The Pitchers. Save The World.

by E Ticket on Apr 24, 2007 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I like the idea of trading a starter for a young hitter. The Giants need some more pop and we have depth in the rotation. It would also be nice to get Franchise up to the show sometime soon. Unless the deal is amazing and we get one of those hotshot Tampa outfielders and a reliever then I don't hink Lowry is the right choice. I would rather mover Morris or Ortiz for a question mark. Lowry still has too much upside to make a rushed trade early in the year. Morris and Ortiz on the other hand might put together big years but they won't do it for the next 3 years.... and come back to bite us like some other young pitchers have that may or may not pitch in a plastic baggie.
I live life like every week is shark week. Oh and ignore the spelling. I do.....

by someguynamedg on Apr 24, 2007 12:11 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I'm with you. Let's not waste Noah on offensive maybes -- he is way too valuable EVEN IF you think he's no more than "league average" (which I do not). For maybes we offer Ortiz, then Morris. I can live with being turned down. I still maintain --as I did three weeks ago-- that by end of year we will have one of the two best bullpens in the NL and the besty starting rotation. That's a good place from which to start looking for free agent bats.
wCovington

by wcovington on Apr 24, 2007 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I'm squarely in the "Don't trade Lowry unless it's for a first-rate young hitter" camp, but we need to be realistic about how hot his start really is. His strikeout rate is horrible, even worse than last year's, and he hasn't really improved his control. He's thriving on an unsustainably low BABIP and home run rate.

One change in his peripherals is that he's keeping the ball on the ground a lot more than he used to. Hope he can keep that up.

by Evan on Apr 24, 2007 12:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
No Lowry.  Home grown must stay.  Trade the outsider.  Matty Mo must go.

by rocknjosie on Apr 24, 2007 12:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Who remembers this song?
The Sabes said to Noah, there's gonna be a tradey-tradey
Sabes said to Noah there's gonna be a tradey-tradey
See you next year in (CLAP!) Tampa Bay-dy Bay-dy
Children of the Fog
My Adopted San Francisco Giant: Notgardo Alfonzo

by tk on Apr 24, 2007 12:16 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Who remembers this song?
Nailed it.
Saving countless runs with my Brian Horwitz

by lyricalkiller on Apr 24, 2007 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Wow, I hadn't thought about Stratego in about a million years. I remembered the game instantly, but it took a while for the name to bubble up out of the memory swamp. I may have to go get a copy to play with my kids now...

Oh yeah, and I'm okay with trading Lowry if we get good value. I'm also okay with keeping him.

"Yep, I'm a Dodger hater" - Kevin Frandsen

by EliminateMe on Apr 24, 2007 12:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

E-Me makes a strong stand on Lowry
Draws a "Line of Death" in the gurgling Stratego Memory Swamp.

by Moggeee on Apr 24, 2007 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hard to draw lines in the swamp...
...they tend to get all wishy washy.

But what opinions does the Greek chorus that is Moggeee hold?

"Yep, I'm a Dodger hater" - Kevin Frandsen

by EliminateMe on Apr 24, 2007 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agamemnon Faces the Music
The trick, dear Brutus, is to withhold all opinions while lampooning those of others...

But If I had to take sides, I'd go with Cain-Zito-Lowry-Lince, and hope to win a lot of games 3-2 and 2-1.

Seems like the Dodgers did that a lot in the 60s, with a pitching dynasty: Koufax-Drysdale-Osteen-Whomever.

by Moggeee on Apr 24, 2007 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Agamemnon Faces the Music
That was a different era when games were low-scoring. I think it had to do with the fact that the mound was 6-feet high and only 23 feet from the plate---unless my memory is betraying me.
It's never too early to panic.

by leewhee on Apr 24, 2007 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Agamemnon Faces the Music
No, you've got it all mixed up. The mound was 23 feet hight and 6 feet from the plate. It was really hard for pitchers to field bunts, though.
"Yep, I'm a Dodger hater" - Kevin Frandsen

by EliminateMe on Apr 24, 2007 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Remember When?
Tall pitchers commonly tumbled over the plate in their follow-throughs, giving batters a free pass to first base.

Pitcher's Interference.

by Moggeee on Apr 24, 2007 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hated Stratego
My older brother always made me play him and I don't think I won even once.
Bruce Bochy gets his big head from me.

by Stuttering John Tamargo on Apr 24, 2007 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
In general, the Giants strength (pitching) lines up very well with the current market. I've heard twice now about the frustrations of teams like the D-Rays who have a surplus of young hitters but still cannot obtain pitching because the cost is too high and they can't get equal value from their position players.

Sure, from our side Lowry is probably a league average pitcher. But look at how many young position players are thrown out on this board as trade possibilities that we salivate over, who realistically will probably turn out to be no better than average hitters. It's all about perspective.

by mxmob33 on Apr 24, 2007 12:31 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I really really
really really really hope that Sabean is talking to the Devil Rays a lot.
Lint Scum forever! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Apr 24, 2007 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Good point. Take a look at the Yankees rotation so far this year. It's crying out for a "league average" pitcher. If that staff doesn't come together, A-Rod could hit 200 HR and they still might have trouble getting above .500.
It's never too early to panic.

by leewhee on Apr 24, 2007 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I don't think anyone would be considering trading Lowry had he not injured himself in his first start last year and continued what we had seen the two previous years.

Give him 2 months.  If he looks like '06 Lowry, I'm open to offers.  If he pitches how we want him to: no freaking way.

Lowry/Cain/Linc/Zito will be the best starting 4 in the majors for the next few years at least.  

Yes we need hitting, but with pitching like that you are a very very dangerous team.  Good pitching is more important than good hitting.

by positiveuphemism on Apr 24, 2007 12:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Not to mention, averaging Zitos contract over the four of them, it'll probably make them the cheapest (value-wise) rotation in the majors as well.

by sfgfan on Apr 24, 2007 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I often think about that
as a way to stop from crying about the Zito money. It kind of explains the suits' perspective.
Lint Scum forever! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Apr 24, 2007 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I fear that if we do give him 2 more months, he will establish the fact that he is barely league average, and trending downward. I just see more Kirk Reuter than Mark Buehrle in him (did I get the eu and ue correct there?) As such, I say trade him now before everybody else discovers that for themselves. Yes, he could improve; trades are always about some risk. But I don't think Ortiz or Morris would look as tempting to pitching-desperate teams like the Yankees or D'Rays. I think, from their perspective, Lowry is the more tempting target. I just want to hurry the process before midnight strikes and he turns back into a pumpkin.
Listen to the littlecablecars: Reliz Feliz!

by Lyle on Apr 24, 2007 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Lowry's contract, the fact that he's locked in for the next few years for basically nothing, and the fact that the Giants have a couple other starters locked in for the next few years for a lot of money...all of that has to affect his trade value, not just to the other team in question but to the Giants themselves. Unless they're certain that Lincecum is an absolute sure-thing to be a successful major league starter beginning in a matter of weeks, then trading Lowry creates the same problem that the Devil Rays of this world have. We'll have to hunt for more pitching, and have to pay a premium for it. Even if you get a decent hitter, it seems like one step forwards, two steps back.

Hope I've made my point. I was trying to add something to the conversation, but the Stratego reference threw off my equilibrium.

Lon Simmons' adopted dad.

by Kitspool on Apr 24, 2007 1:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Casualties are Mounting
Another victim, caught in the swirling eddies of the Memory Swamp.

by Moggeee on Apr 24, 2007 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
But it's not even JUST about depth. The rotation is a strength right now, but next year Morris and Ortiz will be gone, Linc will be up, and Zito will be the question mark everybody is talking about. So that leaves two and a half pitchers on the team for '08-'10, the years that we expect will be our resurgence years, without a lot left in the minors.

We can assume Sanchez will be in the rotation, but I think that's a stretch with his health. We have to look at this in a longer term sense of things. Wanting to trade Lowry is like saying that for next year you want to purge three pitchers and only bring one back as a replacement (that's Linc), and considering Ortiz and Lowry's contracts, we'll almost definitely be putting a TON of extra money into those last two contracts (sorry, after Linc and maaaaybe misch, I just don't see much in the immediate farm system, so that means FA, and that means costly).

Keeping Lowry is showing good forsight for a payroll that is already highly invested and a rotation that doesn't have the depth everybody thinks it does without Morris or Ortiz.

Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on Apr 24, 2007 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
The Giants probably wouldn't get equal value in return for Lowry. If they could get a Alex Rios type young stud who is a safe bet to be good for years, then I'd consider it. They absolutely cannot get into a situation where they deal him for a two month rental. I'd rather keep the pitching strength that the team has.

http://giantsbaseballblog.blogspot.com/

http://giantsbaseballblog.blogspot.com/

by trecole696 on Apr 24, 2007 1:20 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Nah, this is the perfect time, and Lowry is the perfect pitcher, for the Giants to get exactly equal value. There are two teams that are poor, have unbelievably bad starting pitching, who don't have a lot of starting pitching hope in the minors, who have position blockages that force them to waste cheap offensive talent, and who would see Lowry as the perfect low-pay number 2 starter for the next four years.

Lowry for Teahen. (As I've said before)
Lowry for Baldelli. (As others have)

Make it happen.

Saving countless runs with my Brian Horwitz

by lyricalkiller on Apr 24, 2007 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I'd rather trade Morris (as would everyone), but he's gonna need to continue to pitch with a sub 4 era for at least 5 or 6 more starts before he'd get anything of value in return. Lowry's contract makes him much more valuable than Morris on the market and I think we'd have to go that route to get a real hitter and not a question mark.

I'm not too concerned about depth. We have bat boy waiting in AAA, plus I still think Correia and (maybe) Hennessy could be an ok 5th starter. Biggest concern with depth is if Ortiz can't maintain adequacy.

My VORP is higher than Merkin's VORP.

by Poe on Apr 24, 2007 1:28 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

You give
Sanchez short shrift. Sanchez requires shrift of adequate length.
Lint Scum forever! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Apr 24, 2007 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: You give
Bullpen, already pathetic, neglected further.

by zenbitz on Apr 24, 2007 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
This is a tough one, to me. Clearly the Giants need a another hitter who can reliably slg .500 against RHP, or they will not make the playoffs this year. Unless, of course, we think that Klesko can do this on a regular basis - Bochy must know something about his endurance, since he's not getting the playing time to show what he can do anyway.

My sense is that you need to deal for a 3b-man or outfielder who will round out the lineup, since Feliz and Winn are the weakest links. But do you need to give up Lowry? Others have said only for a youngish slugger. But it'll be at least a month or two of quality starts from Lowry before other GMs will consider giving up a guy like Rios (and even then, we'll need to add to the package significantly).

It'd be tough to deal within the division, but I've been coming up with names like Chad Tracy or Garret Atkins lately. Would Morris fetch one of them? For those who think dealing a starter is worth considering, let's hear some names, or else it all stays too abstract.  

by BigO on Apr 24, 2007 1:52 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Didn't see lyricalkiller's post before I posted. Teahen has been another name that I've been working with. He's had a crappy start, so maybe the time is now!

by BigO on Apr 24, 2007 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Freaky. The kids just had Ultimate Stratego out the other night, and all the pieces were messed up.  I was way too tired to figure it out and the directions were lost.  I even tried to download the instructions, but that only served to confuse me more.  The game is presently sitting on the coffee table with my five year old begging me every night to play it with him.  I know he won't understand it, but he is, like most boys, obsessed with all manner of armed and unarmed battle.  Very timely reference.

I say let's hold off on the trade talk, especially as to Noah.  This view is mostly based on the contract and that I think he is underrated by other GM's so we would have difficulty obtaining the kind of skilled hitter this team needs.  We don't need another "veteran bat" like Winn, which is what we would get for the under-appreciated Mr. Lowry.  Let's round up the usual suspects, starting with Geoff Jenkins.  No thanks.  

by out machine on Apr 24, 2007 1:59 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I must have pointed out this 10 times by now, but it's not a great move to trade 1 starting pitcher just because you have a phenom in the minors.

I would only trade one of our current 5 starters if it was some kind of ridiculous swindle - maybe solving 2 of RF/3B/1B holes at once - with guys who can really rake.  Contract status would depend - like Lowry->Cabrera or Morris -> Arod.

Giants would have to come out ahead huge trading a SP, because when the inevitable injury comes, we immediately downgrade SP or bullpen or both, and give back at least some of the gain on offense.

It's not like this team (.500 or not) is on the brink of greatness.  It's still 2 hitters and a bullpen short of solid.   Come trade deadline time, lets see where we stand in the standings.

Finally - what if we trade one, bring up Link and the league goes all sidewinder on him and he's walking like 12/9inn.  We have to send him down, and yay it's Corrieaennseychez time.

by zenbitz on Apr 24, 2007 2:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think that our starting rotation is good enuf
That if our bullpen maintains consistency (I'm skeptical, but I do trust Bochy, and they've been money so far, as crazy as it seems), we are just a big hitter (read: true impact, and young) short. I think a guy like Teahen, Encarcion, etc. would be perfect.
Lint Scum forever! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Apr 24, 2007 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And I meant starting rotation
as excluding 1 of (Lowry, Morris, Ortiz) and including Lincecum.
Lint Scum forever! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Apr 24, 2007 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I'm sorry, I've got to stay in the "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Yes long term if we don't score runs we will suck, but Richie is doing good, Vizquel and Roberts will stop pressing so much, and Winn will finally do something. In my mind I'll take it because the grass isn't always greener on the other side .. . . .
For WilltheThrill, this is Jon Miller saying goodnight. . . .

by WilltheThrill on Apr 24, 2007 2:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I agree, except for that last part.  I am starting to wonder about Winn. Hope I am wrong, but I'm just saying...

by out machine on Apr 24, 2007 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
He sure looks a lot more like the Tampa Bay/Seattle guy the past couple years.  He's a decent ballplayer at least, but he looks better as a 4th guy.  5th?  

BB

All those Giants fans down in Giants land love that Crazy Crab!

by BlackDougal on Apr 24, 2007 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I dunno, I read this thread, and it seems like a Yankee forum - Lowry for Cabrera or Baldelli (Lowry in the AL East?), or Morris for A-rod? If we can't maintain any pretense of realism, than this devolves into talk radio (lets trade Benitez for Pujols!). Morris has limited trade value right now - he's a 35 year old owed another $20 million, and no one will give us any value for him - just place yourself in the other shoes.

Lowry is a young-league average SP with awful K-rates trends (2006), which do not really bode well for the future. I like him a lot personally - the idea of homegrown talent is more "fulfilling", as it were, but my favorite Giant isn't homegrown (Barry Lamar). If his K-rate trend in 2006 was a discrepancy,he's clearly worth a lot more than he is now. Contacting TB (with their preponderance of bats) makes sense, but I wonder if they want him without some assurance that he's back to the pitcher of 2004 and 2005. Heck, I think a more reasonable deal is to try and get Matt Murton from Chicago, and maybe get them to throw in a mediocre prospect.

by Aadik on Apr 24, 2007 2:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The A-rod and Cabrera comments
were anomalies. I don't think many here really believe that to be possible.
Lint Scum forever! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Apr 24, 2007 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Yes, we should trade Benitez for Pujols.
Steve Kline: He probably won't be terrible

by groug on Apr 24, 2007 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
OMG ITS PERFECT!!! DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO IT!
Coming to you by proxy (I adopted: Dave Righetti!)

by howtheyscored on Apr 24, 2007 8:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why rush?
The Giants are playing .500 ball right now. Let's be patient and hope our pitching staff keeps it up. If Lowry pitches like this through the summer, we know what he's going to do in August, why trade him? Sure his value will be high, but his potential was always there. We have him signed to a bargain contract through 2010. I'm not opposed to trading Lowry if the right deal were to present itself, but the last thing I want to see is a reach trade for a marginal bat.

Why were they called Miners? Why weren't the bombs called mines? Would have made a lot more sense. Regardless, Stratego was a great game. If they could somehow combine Stratego and Risk, you'd have a helluva game. What would the Giants Roster look like if you assigned Stratego roles to everyone? Well, we know Benitex is a bomb.

If I have a son, I want him to grow up to be like Billy Sadler

by MeSoKrabby on Apr 24, 2007 2:52 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Why rush?
Stratego. Risk. Mastermind.

That's a fun Saturday right there.

Saving countless runs with my Brian Horwitz

by lyricalkiller on Apr 24, 2007 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Why rush?
Patent Pending.
If I have a son, I want him to grow up to be like Billy Sadler

by MeSoKrabby on Apr 24, 2007 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As opposed to Barry, Cain, and Omar
Who are THE Bomb.
Bruce Bochy gets his big head from me.

by Stuttering John Tamargo on Apr 24, 2007 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Why rush?
Stratego + Risk = Civilization, isn't it?
Adopting Dave Roberts since 2007

by hometownboy on Apr 24, 2007 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Why rush?
surely not civ the board game?

by zenbitz on Apr 24, 2007 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I like Lowry as much as the next guy, but a quick look at the numbers reveals this:
  1. 7.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9
  2. 7.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
  3. 4.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9
  4. 4.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9 (small sample)
Now, a lefty who doesn't walk too many guys and keeps the ball in the yard certainly has value, but his K-rate has plummeted since his sophomore season and hasn't shown many signs of returning.

He's a useful starter, but the one thing the Giants have a glut of is pitching and Lowry's perceived value may be at it's highest point right now relative to his actual value. If we could get a youngish right fielder who can hit (not a star, somebody mentioned Matt Murton on another board, that seems like the right caliber player) I think we should pull the trigger.

Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Apr 24, 2007 3:50 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I think Murton plus a marginal arm like Roberto Novoa might work for me. Isn't there a LH version of Murton out there somewhere, though?

by BigO on Apr 24, 2007 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
In fact there is, his name is Ryan Church and he's who I'd try to trade Lowry for. He's a good fit, the Nats need pitching, and Jim Bowden is none to smart.
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Apr 24, 2007 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Yeah, that's right. Church was on my radar a while back, but I'd forgotten about him. Apparently he was benched the other day for lack of hustle, or something, so maybe he'd be easier pickin'. He's 28, while Murton and Teahen are about 25. Pretty sure that it would still have to be Lowry to get him, though, because the Gnats don't have any use for an old timer like Morris. I think I'd need some bullpen to go along with Church for Lowry. Is it realistic to think that we might be able to get Church and Rauch for Lowry and Winn (and his salary for this year).

by BigO on Apr 24, 2007 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I think that might be doable, and I'd like the deal because I think Rauch has a few years of mammoth set-up man ahead of him.
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Apr 25, 2007 8:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Even though the '07 numbers don't show it, I'm hoping '06 was a deviation from the norm and not the new norm. Hopefully he'll pop off some more strikeouts in his next few starts; his stuff doesn't seem 3.0 K/9 different than '05, even accounting for the possibility that the league adjusted to him.

by Grant on Apr 24, 2007 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Playin Junior G-Man is like
watching the NFL Draft with Mel Kiper Jr.
Save Matt Morris. Save The Pitchers. Save The World.

by E Ticket on Apr 24, 2007 5:05 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Because Noah Lowry isn't going to make a lot of money (comparitively) over the next few years no matter HOW well he pitches, it is probably worth the gamble to keep him. If he breaks out -- or even merely returns to his level of 2005 -- his trade value would likely be MUCH higher than it is today.

Clearly the guy to trade would seem to be Matt Morris.  Matt is off to a very fine start which he is unlikely to keep up.  Sure, he's a staff leader, but the Giants have a pitching coach, a bullpen coach and a starter they're paying $126 million.  Yes, Matt is making a lot of money, but the Giants contract to Barry Zito and other teams' contracts to other pitchers have brought Matt's contract back into the ballpark, so to speak, as long as he performs at a slightly above average level.

I would think it would make sense to trade Noah only if the Giants truly were able to get a lot for him -- or at least a young player who also won't be expensive over the next few years but who has very good upside and already is performing at an acceptable level.

by sharksrog on Apr 25, 2007 6:45 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
Let's keep the team as is.  The Giants have pulled themselves out of a huge hole; let's keep the momentum going.  

Is Klesko going to stay healthy?  Is Aurilia going to keep hitting?  Let's let it play out.

Bochy's use of the bullpen has been great (along with his faith in the starters.)  Hope his magic touch stays.  (Last year it would have been Morris out after 6 and right to Hennessey/Correia/Kline).  I respected Alou but his quick hook was too much.

by williemays4ever on Apr 25, 2007 4:55 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: And I Just Took His Spy...
I think everyone can agree that we are not going to deal anyone while we're on the current pace of winning. However, it makes no sense to wait until guys start to slow down to consider making a deal. It only makes sense to sell high. It's not clear that Lowry would be considered to be on a "high" at the moment, though.

by BigO on Apr 25, 2007 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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