I figure it's fitting to put something up about Matt Cain being so dominant as he nearly threw another 1-hit shutout today. Too bad it ended 2-1 with 3 hits allowed (I hate Byrnes at AT&T, don't you?).
There's a site that has created a formula to see how good of a chance a pitcher has of throwing a no-hitter:
Furthermore, the boys over at MLBTraderumors.com plugged in Matt Cain's career stats and came up with this:
"His chances of throwing a no-hitter in any given start are 0.27%. Not too bad! Nolan Ryan's chances in any given start were 0.35%.
So after figuring that out it's just a volume game. If Cain makes 100 career starts, we should expect 0.27 no-hitters. It follows that if he makes 364 career starts and maintains his hit rate, he should be expected to throw exactly one no-hitter. (Let's not get into his hit rate worsening after his peak right now).
Can Cain make that many career starts? I honestly have no idea, but it seems reasonable on the surface (about 13 seasons). John Smoltz is his top comparable, and Smoltz is at 429 starts so far. However, a lot of promising young guys never sniff 300 career starts. Browsing Cain's top ten comparables, only two have reached 300 (Smoltz and Andy Benes, although Josh Beckett has a shot).
Still, I think it's fair to say that over the life of his new contract, it's nearly a coin flip that Cain tosses a no-no."
Here's the link to this site: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/san_francisco_giants/index.html
I hope nobody else put this up before, or else I'll feel like an idiot. It's worth re-visiting, if that's the case. Anyways, I get the feeling Cain's got a better chance of throwing a no-hitter than 1 in 364 starts. But, who knows?