Hardball Times Writer Calls Cain "Average"

by antinous on Apr 19, 2007 11:28 AM PDT Comment 33 comments

"Carlos Gomez recently analyzed Cain's pitching mechanics. While I agree that Cain is a great candidate as a sleeper to break out soon, I doubt it will happen. Cain has demonstrated mediocre control since leaving Single-A ball in 2004, and that leads to occasional outings like last week's 1-0 loss to San Diego, where he was lucky to only surrender one run after allowing six baserunners to reach first base without actually hitting the ball. He clearly has the stuff to make major league hitters swing and miss, but his inconsistent control will limit his effectiveness."

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-best-young-right-handed-pitchers-of-2007/

I already gave him hell. I'm such a fanboy.

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Re: Hardball Times

Seriously, though. What? I don't know the author, but that whole article seems like it was written by a guy who hadn't watched more than a handful of those pitchers. That's like reviewing a movie after reading the screenplay; sometimes that's all you need to do to know if something is good or bad, but it's not enough to pretend like you can properly review the whole movie.

I mean, really? If he has watched Cain more than once, then the article really doesn't make any sense.

And Joel Zumaya has an average upside only in a post-apocalyptic world where every other player is a clone of Robb Nen.

by Grant on Apr 19, 2007 11:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hardball Times

Grant, I think Chris Costancio knows his stuff. No one is right all the time about prospects, and I certainly don't think he is giving Tim Lincecum enough upside, but there aren't huge numbers out there who know more about these prospects than Chris does.

Keep in mind that a guy like Chris probably knows the prospects of EVERY team better than we know the Giants prospects alone.

by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2007 12:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hardball Times

i dont know most of these people Sharksrog, but if
you say he knows his stuff i take your word for it...only thing on these national people i wonderabout tthem sometimes or who writes their stuff...

I think it was Lisa Winston? from "Around the Minors" recapping last year wrote not once but twice
that Nic Pereira pitched in AA last year... anyone
following the Giants minor leaguers at all last year knew the big start by Pereira and his noteworthy skip to Fresno....so i end up wondering about these national people and how much homework they actually
do....

Sickels, dont know how well he is thought of, but
at least he had Jesse Floyd rated at about #20
of the Giants prospects before being being grabbed
in rule 5 - i dont recall anyone havng floyd in top50 last year, so he might be doing his job....

usually i just pay attention to this site's expert
and ignore the rest...

by slojoe on Apr 20, 2007 12:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hardball Times

My favorite prospect writer is Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. He had Tim Lincecum, Angel Villalona (!) and Jonathan Sanchez in his top 75 or so.

John Sickels is also good,and he is quite willing to listen to feedback on a particular player. I have filled his e-mailbox with solid stuff on Tim Lincecum.

John was nice enough to ask if he could quote my first e-mail to him about Tim, so I presume he is planning a piece on Tim sometime soon. I keep jabbing him to make Tim his #1 pitching prospect, and he did tell me that he had raised him from #5 to #3. I told him that he was halfway there. :)

Incidentally, in his book The Baseball Prospect Book 2007, John concluded his comments on Tim with "Assuming his arm is as reslient as everyone thinks, he will be an outstanding major league pitcher in any role." I would like to think that I somehow had played a small part in his making that closing comment.

John originally had Tim as one of his very few prospects with a straight A grade. He lowered him to A- before writing the book, saying he was worried about the high number of pitches Tim had thrown in college (which included a documented 165), but said he would accept comments. That prompted my first e-mail to him.

Now I keep reminding him that there is precious little time to move Tim up to #1 before Tim makes his major-league debut and John has missed his opportunity.

I look forward to the day when John finally sends me an e-mail saying something to the effect of "You know? You were right all along about Tim Lincecum." :)

by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2007 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hardball Times

It doesn't matter that he "knows more" if he's not able to draw logical conclusions from what he knows, or to write them up clearly and expressively. Matt Cain has a career ERA+ of 120. To categorize him, then, as a player who "probably will become an average player relative to other starters at his position during majority of their career" is just wrong. He's already well above average.

Cain is a pretty straightforward case, as young pitchers go: a frequently dominating strikeout/flyball pitcher with mediocre command and control. Most of these guys either flame out like Ben McDonald and Jaret Wright and Cal Eldred and Kerry Wood, or plod along as Livanesque innings eaters. But the ones who are able to avoid injury and fully master their stuff have careers like Curt Schilling's or John Smoltz's. To say that Cain's upside is average and he's close to his prime is wrong on both counts.

I'm just harping on Cain because he's the one we all know best, but Constancio's list seems very poorly thought out in plenty of other ways. If you wind up with Luke Hochevar, who has barely pitched as a pro, in the same category as Jeremy Bonderman, who has 777 big-league innings of continual improvement and frequent domination under his belt, you need to rethink your categories.

by Evan on Apr 20, 2007 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hardball Times

I think Matt is closer to his prime than he is to being average.

by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2007 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hardball Times

Read the Cain writeup again. Does it read as if it came from someone who has watched Cain pitch several times, or from someone who looked over a stat sheet as he was writing the article? He could have been behind home plate with a radar gun for 16 Cain starts for all I know, but it really, really reads like the latter. And when the conclusion is questionable -- c'mon, average upside? -- taking a purely stat-based approach is something that deserves to come under fire.

And he might know more about prospects than the average bear, but Cain isn't a prospect. I guarantee you that 95% readers of this site have seen Cain pitch more, and almost all of us can read a stat ledger.

by Grant on Apr 20, 2007 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hardball Times Writer Calls Cain

I can see what the guy is saying, but that doesn't seem to be the definition of upside. Since Cain obviously can't maintain a .100 BA against forever I can see the statement that as long as his control is a weakness he won't be much better than average (I think he's above average even with the flaws but he's certainly not 1.80 ERA good) but the upside would be that his control improves and he becomes a super-stud.

Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Apr 19, 2007 11:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hardball Times Writer Calls Cain

Yeah. He seems to be using "upside" to mean "how things will probably turn out." Which is pretty much the exact opposite of what it really means.

And he's got some problems with the term "prime" as well. Huston Street, Luke Hochevar, Josh Johnson, and Jeremy Bonderman are equally close to their primes?

by Evan on Apr 19, 2007 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hardball Times Writer Calls Cain

Yeah, although in that case I take it he means "peak." I have no idea what he means by "upside."

Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Apr 19, 2007 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hardball Times Writer Calls Cain

Although Hochevar is probably not at his peak, so who knows what he's on about.

Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Apr 19, 2007 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hardball Times Writer Calls Cain

Matt needs more control not only to become more effective, but to limit his pitch count so he can pitch deeper into games without overtaxing his arm.

by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2007 12:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cain Average?

How is Cain average, yet Huston Street is on the list, and I quote, "is already one of baseball's most dependable closers."

Just so everyone knows, Street blew 11 saves last season. Most in the majors. He is good and did save 37, but a 23% blown save percent does not equate to me as one of the most dependable closers.

The whole article doesn't make much sense, like calling Matt Garza and Yovani Gallardo close to prime when they have thrown a total of 50 major league innings. You should watch these pitchers before writing articles about them.

Sun Devil Baseball

by rod beck on Apr 19, 2007 12:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Cain Average?

Matt has clearly been an above-average pitcher thus far, and will likely become well above average in the not-too-distant future.

And yet he will be only the Giants #2 starter. :)

by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2007 12:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Hardball Times Writer Ca

Gomez saw me with my pants down and rated me as simply "average". Obviously, this guy underestimates everyone.

you can't handle the truth or Ryan Klesko!

by Goofus on Apr 19, 2007 1:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Why are they hating?

This dude, as far as Matt Cain goes, has no idea what he's talking about.

BTW, the Billingsley blurb:
His nice-looking 3.80 ERA during the 2006 season obscures some pretty serious control issues last year. Billingsley is likely to improve in that respect this year, but he has struggled with control earlier in his career so this is a problem worth watching. The Dodgers' top young pitcher did improve as the 2006 season progressed; his control and strikeout rates were at their best during the final two months of the season.

What makes Billingsley's control problems likely to improve and Matt Cain's insurmountable? (By the way, did this guy even look at Billingsley's splits? Which "final two months" is he talking about? He had a nice August, but his September was pretty bad in 2 starts and in July, his control was terrible.)

Also, just for comparison's sake:

Billingsley over the last two months 2006: 39.2 IP, 42 H, 20 BB, 31 K, 3.67 ERA
Cain over the last two months 2006: 78 IP, 64 H, 30 BB, 82 K, 3.11 ERA

In any case, Matt Cain rules and this guy is a n00b.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Apr 19, 2007 1:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why are they hating?

I hate statements like you made here, jponry. You state "This dude, as far as Matt Cain goes, has no idea what he's talking about."

But then you go on to talk about Chad Billingsley, and don't offer us a CLUE as to why you don't think Chris Constancio -- who DOES have some cred, by the way -- knows anything about Matt. Actually, you offered us some crumbs, but little of substance. You compared Cain and Billingsley from late last season, but Matt has almost a full year's major-league experience on Chad.

Feel free to state your opinion. But back it up. Thanks for your consideration.

By the way, I like Matt a fair amount better than Chad, too, but I still don't know why you don't seem to think Chris Costancio has a clue.

by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2007 12:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why are they hating?

Haha, I'm just being over-defensive of my favorite baseball player, man. Chill out.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Apr 20, 2007 1:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why are they hating?

Cool! And while some would quarrel, I think I'm being pretty objective about MY favorite active baseball player. :)

Watching Tim Lincecum pitch is like eating a divine meal.

by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2007 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why are they hating?

I did state my opinion, which is that his reasoning within the piece is inconsistent.

Like I said, I don't understand what makes Billingsley's command issues not a problem and Cain's insurmountable. In addition, he made the statement that Billingsley improved his command over the last two months of 2006*, while ignoring the similar improvements Cain made over the same time period. There is absolutely no way that the walk rate Cain had in the 2nd half last year (around 3.6 BB/9) is so bad that it would keep him from being more than an average pitcher with his stuff and his seeming ability to keep opposing players from getting good wood on the ball. Yes, he has issues with pitch counts from allowing batters to foul off too many pitchers, but I can't see how anyone could look at a 22 year old who has made the strides Matt Cain has and watched the games he's pitched in the time he's been in the majors and conclude that he has only average upside.

Is that enough backing up of my opinion for you, or would you like it in essay form?

*(And, looking at his stats, I don't know if I would even say Billingsley made great strides with his command in any month last year other than August.)

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Apr 20, 2007 1:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why are they hating?

Sharksrog is a good man, but he has too much respect for these writers of national publications and not enough respect for hardcore baseball fans. He's a part time sportswriter himself, and I think that makes him think that they're all brilliant. The only brilliant one is you, Rog!! Getting back to this guy who thinks Matt Cain will only be average. Moron. As for the Billingsley comparison, Matt Cain would never lose his spot in the rotation to Brett Tomko. Nuff said. I've heard rumors that this writer is a Dodger fan, has dated Alyssa Milano and was actually the one who financed Tommy Lasorda's sapphic fantasies.

Armando Benitez countdown to 300 saves: 282

by rxmeister on Apr 20, 2007 7:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Why are they hating?

If Chris Costancio said that Matt Cain's control problems were insurmountable, I think he was wrong. By the way, no need to give me your explanation in essay form. Sassy form was just fine, thank you. :)

by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2007 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

McCovey Chronicler Calls Hardball Times

Writer an idiot--with no upside whatsoever unless he submits to electorshock therapy

Save Matt Morris. Save The Pitchers. Save The World.

by E Ticket on Apr 19, 2007 2:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: McCovey Chronicler Calls Hardball Times

And, E, you make a pretty harsh statement here -- with nothing to back it up. Do you need a little electroshock to provide the spark? :)

by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2007 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unlikely to Break Out?

Dude apparently doesn't know that Cain has already broken out. As for the 1-0 game in SD, didn't he, like, take a no-hitter into the 7'th inning or something? Hasn't he already, in a very short career had 6 starts where he allowed only 1 hit?

Isn't the definition of upside a young pitcher who has crazy good stuff but just needs to control it a little better? Sounds to me like he's criticizing Cain for not pitching a perfect game every time out NOW! He has no clue what the term upside means. Upside implies FUTURE improvement, not current performance!

Geez. I can't believe what passes for sports commentary and "expert" analysis these days.

by DrBGiantsfan on Apr 19, 2007 4:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Unlikely to Break Out?

Exactly, ...its seems like every time i turn around Cain either has a no-hitter or a one-hitter going...

2006 ERA from July 1st to end of season was 3.41

2006 ERA July 1st-Sept 14th: 2.50

(that throws out his last3 starts -
which were 18 IP/16 ER,
think the Giants were done by then
anyhow, maybe he was counting
the days...)

about all i can do is check stats but it
seems to me he's streaky but only getting better

by slojoe on Apr 19, 2007 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Unlikely to Break Out?

I think you hit the nail on the head about Matt being streaky. I agree with the poster here who feels that Matt is more likely to throw a no-hitter than Tim Lincecum.

Tim is more dominant in terms of strikeouts, but when he's really on, Matt seems to somehow avoid giving up many hits even though he allows a fair number of balls in play.

I see Tim as the better prospect and the more consistent pitcher, but I agree that Matt has about as much no-hit potential as any pitcher in the game.

Assuming he can keep his pitch count low enough to pitch a complete game, of course.

by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2007 12:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Unlikely to Break Out?

Cain does have all the hallmarks of a guy who will be able to keep his BABIP lower than you'd expect: Strikeout pitcher who induces a lot of pop flies (shown to be a repeatable skill IIRC) and he has been to such an extreme that it's worth considering that he may be one of the rare pitchers who does have a significant influence (beyond the usual Ks, GB%, etc.) on his hit rate.

Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Apr 20, 2007 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Unlikely to Break Out?

who cares?? We have them both. Saying that Tim Lincecum will be better than Matt Cain is literally music to our ears. However when you start comparing them to Barbara Billingsley of the Dodgers, you're committing blasphemy. Compare Billingsley to Brad Hennessey. They're both middle relievers.

Armando Benitez countdown to 300 saves: 282

by rxmeister on Apr 20, 2007 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Unlikely to Break Out?

Hey, Billingsley is a blue chip prospect who should pretty clearly be in their rotation. I'd take Cain or Lincecum over him in a heartbeat but he's not exactly chopped liver.

Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Apr 20, 2007 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Unlikely to Break Out?

To put this in perspective, I would rank Tim clearly ahead of Matt, who is clearly ahead of Chad, who is clearly ahead of Jonathan Sanchez IMO.

by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2007 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Unlikely to Break Out?

I'd also bring up LaRoche and find a place for Loney while I'm at it if I were running the Dodgers, but I'm not going to complain if they continue to make stupid moves. Let them continue to damage Billingsley. And he has to be damaged. He gave up a homerun this year to Pedro Feliz!!

Armando Benitez countdown to 300 saves: 282

by rxmeister on Apr 20, 2007 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Unlikely to Break Out?

I think you may be giving Chris Costancio short shrift here, Dr., although to be honest I find your own analysis to be at least as good as Chris'. But he has a whole lot more players to evaluate. :)

by sharksrog on Apr 20, 2007 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs