Pick 1 of 1...

1) Bruce Bochy continues the tradition of his immediate predecessors by posting triple-digit victories in his first season as Giants' skipper.

Giants: 101-61
Dodgers: 93-69
Padres: 86-76
Diamondbacks: 86-76
Rockies: 70-92

The Giants aren't likely to win 93 games -- let alone 101 (although I like your knowledge of Dusty's 103 wins and Felipe's 100 in their first years).

I thought the most likely of your ten points was probably Tim Lincecum's 100 innings and ERA of 3.50 or less -- and many of your points were fairly reasonable (although perhaps not enough to attain the desired 93 wins).

I would say Pedro Feliz's .300+ OBP and .500+ SLG would be least likely, although hopefully the hard work he did over the winter to change his approach at the plate will pay dividends.  This spring he has hit encouragingly well -- although the last time I looked he had drawn nary a walk.

A couple of points:

First, Armando's career save percentage isn't 89%.  Since save opportunities were kept at mlb.com beginning in 1999 it IS a very respectable 85.3%, however.  Yes, it would help if he could at least equal that percentage.  

But often overlooked in save percentage is the average DIFFICULTY of the saves.  Did you know for instance that teams score two runs or fewer in over 93% of all innings?  That would indicate that if a closer had all three-run, one-inning saves in which he entered at the beginning of the ninth inning, Armando's 85.3% save percentage would be about 8% below what one might expect from an average pitcher?

Teams score one run or fewer in over 86% of their games, so if all of Armando's saves were two-run, one inning saves, he would still be about 1% below an average pitcher.  In one-run situations, the one-inning save would happen from an average pitcher only 71% of the time.  

It is those one-run saves where today's closer earns his money.  With a lead of two or three runs entering the ninth inning, an average pitcher should be able to convert at about the same rate -- actually a little better -- as Armando has converted since the beginning of the 1999 season.

Second, with Barry Bonds apparently now batting third rather than cleanup, it is possible that a .475 OBP from Barry won't be as meaningful as with him batting cleanup.  To illustrate this, let's use Barry's first at bat of the game.

Batting third, it is likely that about 42% of Barry's first plate appearance in games will come with two outs and no one on.  If he starts 130 games, that will be about 55 plate appearances during which the opposition can walk him with relative impunity, since a runner on first base with two outs scores only about 13% of the time -- and Barry's lack of speed on the bases might drop even that percentage.

Let's suppose that Barry gets 500 plate appearances and that he reaches base 238 times (.476). Normally I would agree with you that his being able to do so would indicate a season in which he did quite well.  Last season his OBP was "only" .454.  But let's suppose that the opposition is smart enough to walk Barry in 28 of those 55 plate appearances in which he bats with two outs and no one on in the first inning.  That would mean that in the other 472 plate appearances, Barry would have reached base "only" 210 times, for an OBP when it matters more of "just" .445.

I think if Barry bats third, he will perhaps need to post a .500 or higher OBP to have the effect you desire.  That would mean that he had an OBP of .473 or higher when it matters more, much closer to your .475 target.

Batting Barry third likely isn't the best move Bruce Bochy will make this year.

I could see 5 of 10 happening. I could also see 0 of 10 happening.

Diamondbacks: 93-69
Padres: 88-74
Giants: 85-77
Dodgers: 80-82
Rockies: 76-86

Diamondbacks win the pennant.

I think a lot of you guys are overrating the Giants, excusable given the site, but a lot of you are overrating the Dodgers as well, which is inexcusable. I have them as one game better than the Giants, which should be good for third or fourth place, tops. They are in better shape than the Giants only in terms of talent available, they are squandering a lot of it with who they are putting out on the field.

Well since is the year where the Giants finally cleaned house and went young, I'd say that it will be fun just watching the future players develop as the year goes on.

I'll sign on for 1, 2, 6, and 9, with 4 and 8 as near misses. A good team, but the Padres will be a lot better.

Padres 99-63
Giants 88-74
D'backs 87-75
Rockies 79-83
Dodgers 74-88

The Dodgers are going to have the players they need to stay healthy (Schmidt, Furcal) get hurt and the players they need to get hurt (Pierre, Gonzalez, Betemit) stay healthy.

88 wins could make the playoffs, right?

Believe in the Fleas!

What is everybody shaking in their shoes over the Padres for?  My God!  

Since when is a rotation of Peavey/Young/Maddux/Hensely/Wells all that much better than our Zito/Cain/Morris/Lowry/Ortiz?  Who do they have waiting in the wings if one of their 40+ yo's bite it?  At least we have a couple of nice options waiting in the wings!

As for their lineup, where's the beef?  Do you mean to tell me that their

Sledge/Cruz
Marcus Giles
Gonzalez
Brian Giles
Big Kouz
Cameron
Greene
Bard/Bowen.

strikes fear in anybody's heart?  Come on you wussies!  Where's the old start-of-the-season bravado here?  You mean to tell me you'd take that lineup over

Roberts
Omar
Barry
RayRay
Richie
Pedro
Molina
Winn

?

Now, I will concede that the Pads have a superior bullpen, and a bullpen is pretty darn important, but even that ain't written it stone.

As for the rest of the division:

Dodgers look great on paper, terrible in the field.  Loney and Bills make great insurance policies, though.

I'm probably more afraid of the D'backs than Pads, but some of the young hitters may not be quite ready and the pitching is shaky at best.

Rocks have a great, young lineup, but their pitching, as usual stinks to high heaven.

Giants win the division.  Not sure how many wins.

Dodgers have the most complete team in the division in my oponion, as much as it pains me to say. If the Giants starting pitching is as advertised, there's no way they are finishing 4th.

Dodgers 93-69
Giants 87-75
D-Backs 81-81
Padres 80-82
Rockies 72-90

Playoff and Award Predictions
http://giantsbaseballblog.blogspot.com/

Excellent post, Grant. Here's my thoughts:

1. I just don't see RayRay repeating last year's numbers - though it would be great if he could!
   
2. Barry should achieve those numbers, although as pointed out above, that .475 in the #3 hole isn't as impressive as it would be hitting #4.
   
3. "Befuddle" may not be the right word, but I think Zito will do just fine for us. Not $100+ milion fine, but fine.
   
4. Lincecum's ML stats this year are hard to predict. When does he come up, and is he then used as a starter, reliever, or closer? On a hunch, I'll say he comes up in July as a starter, and he does pitch 100 innings with an ERA near 3.50.
   
5. Would you believe .270/.360/.470? Yeah, okay.
   
6. roflmao. Grant you are such a kidder.
   
7. Uh, sure. Preferrably with 2-run leads, not 1-run leads.
   
8. Cain will continue to grow as a ML pitcher. The league will make some adjustments, though, so I can't say he'll duplicate the last half of last year. Let's pretty close, but not quite. 2008 is when Matty takes off toward Cy Young land.
   
9. I wish, but I'll say no. This is maybe the biggest variable of the season.
   
10. Again, I hope so. But I still think Lowry is a pitcher who will always be precariously perched on the Reuter line, capable of falling at any moment.

I get an average of around 4.5 of your ten

To me, the three big questions are:

1. Will our bullpen get straightened out? Somehow, with Bochy in charge I have hope.
   
2. Will Todd Linden emerge as a middle-of-the-order hitter? I think he will, which is absolutely necessary for us to compete at all.
   
3. Will Ryan Klekso bounce back to career-average numbers? I think he will, and his doing so is vital to our success as well. If Linden and Klesko are hitters, and Bonds is what we think he'll be, then RayRay can just be average and Pedro can spend more quality time on the bench. If those things happen, I'll go with:

Padres 89-73
Giants 87-75
Diamondbacks 86-76
Dodgers 86-76
Rockies 78-84

If those 3 things don't happen:

Padres 92-70
Dodgers 90-74
Diamondbacks 88-74
Rockies 79-83
Giants 78-84

1 -  Ray-Ray has essentially last year again, with just slightly lower numbers.
2 -  Yes, Barry is healthy, plays all year and is productive, somewhere between '04 and the last half of '06.
3 -  Yes, Aito has his second best career (thus far) year, far outpaces Schmidt of last year.
4 -  No, he is not needed, comes up with the other Septmeber call ups.
5 -  Yes, I would put this as the mean of expectations.  Meaning, I think they produce at least 275 BA and as high as 287 BA, with corresponding increases in the other numbers.  The names are not as important as the postion numbers -  irrespective of the combination, Aurelia, Kelsko, Niekro will produce these signifacantly improved over last year numbers.
6 -  Again, don't get fixated on the name.  3b, because there are OPTIONS  this year where there were none last year, means the hot hand gets to play - and no one gets run into the ground.  I think Feliz posts his numbers from the 1st half last year, maybe even higher as he is challenged, gets rested on a regular basis and has made some adjustments that will give him some improvement over even alst year's 1st half.
7 -  This is an astute question.  You can play 3with the numbers however you want, but I think he saves at an 85-90% rate, and posts a WHIP of about 1.00, and ERA of less than 1.50.
8 -  Somewhere between his 2nd half and his entire '06 will be just fine.
9 -  This is definitely the great unknown - and has the potential to undo or negate all the other positive numbers.  It may take  months, but there is just too much potential:  Hennessey, Correia, Chulk, Kline, Wilson, Misch, Sadler, Taschner, Atchison, Kim, Sanchez.  I think 4 or 5 of those guys give us good to very good years.
10 -  Lowry keeps us in most games, performs as a solid #4 starter, if not #3.  Actually, I expect Morris, Lowry, and Ortiz to all perform at a #W3 - #4 level.
  I heard Todd Jones on SD radio last night predicting the Giants win the pennant (the favorite).  It is close, with 3 teams looking good and nearly equal on paper, Dodgers, Padres, Giants.  It is too soon for the Snakes.  Fortunately, the Dodgers look good only on paper.  The chemistry on a team with Kent, Pierre, Penny, Schmidt?  Kent doesn't get back to his earlier production, Nomar plays half a year, Schmidt is fine as a #W3, that is all he really is.
  The Pads certainly have the pitching and D.  You are going to have to score in the 1st, 5th or 6th inning, cuz you're not going to beat them in the other innings.  But their position players are going to make all - make that ALL -our pitchers look like Cy Young candidates.  Hopefully, were beating them 3-2, 4-3.

Sadly, if healthy, LA will win the West. With that said, the already lost Furcal for a while. If Kent, Nomar or one of the starters goes down for some time, they could struggle. SD is likely 2nd and the Snakes and Giants will battle for third, struggling to make .500. The Rocks will continue to sleep in the cellar.

I really don't see this Giants team competing. The MacGowan/Baer propaganda machine has tried to claim competitiveness the last two years, but they were never really in the in it and they did finish well under .500. A team with Klesko/Aurilia platoon at first, counting on Ray Durham to hit clean up, a 40 year old SS (don't get me wrong I love Omar) and a third baseman with an OBP under .300 is hard pressed to compete. The OF is ok, but with Winn (the Kevin Bass or Ken Henderson of the 2000s) in right won't cut it. The pen is unsettled and the starters have questions. UGH. See you all on Tuesday.