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Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants

There is some hope here. If the team can get some offense from Linden, and Winn bounces back to his career average, they may be alright.

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This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
Crazy that the Giants were alone in first place on July 22 last year.

by bisquik on Mar 29, 2007 8:50 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
Yeah I thought the same thing. They shit the bed so ferociously after that date that I pretty much forgot they were in first place that late in the season.
I adopted Barry Bonds

by BondsApologist on Mar 29, 2007 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
Wow, BTF is usually pretty down on anything Sabean does.  This is a much more hopeful prediction than I would have expected from them.

by Skaldheim on Mar 29, 2007 9:11 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
An 84 win projection is not exactly a ringing endorsement of Sabean's moves and that win total is predicated on a big year from Bonds.
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on Mar 30, 2007 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
"Feliz' overall performance will drop 10 runs, with a good chance at dropping 20 runs."

Damn that's cold.

by zenbitz on Mar 29, 2007 9:55 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
Am I the only one who's optimistic about Pedro's chances this year?? This is the classic example of the national media not knowing the ins and outs of the team like real Giants' fans do. Giant fans know that Feliz worked hard to change his approach at the plate this offseason and spring training, and you could really see the results. He has alot of incentive to do well this year, with a one year contract and a push from Ryan Klesko for playing time. (Aurilia will get lots of starts at third if Feliz stinks it up) Will Pedro become a star?? No. Will Pedro improve greatly over last year?? I think so. Hell, even a return to the Pedro Feliz of a couple of years ago would be a nice thing for the Giants to have. I remember what Mike Tyson said about his opponents back when he was dominant. "Everybody has a plan to beat me until I hit them!!" Pedro may immediately go back to his bad habits once the season starts, but why expect that to happen??
only 248 more shopping days to Armando's birthday

by rxmeister on Mar 30, 2007 7:05 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
I am delighted that Pedro's OPS this spring is .916.  I think any of us would settle for 100 points LESS than that from Pedro (since that would still represent an improvement of 100 points over either of the past two seasons).

What I find discouraging is that Pedro's .347 OBP (which I would take in a flash) is identical to his .347 BA.  Pedro has drawn all of one walk this spring -- in 72 at bats.  If he doesn't significantly improve that miniscule walk rate once the season starts, he isn't likely to have a very successful season.

Pedro's biggest strength at the plate is his ability to hit for a little power.  Pedro has averaged 20 homers per season over the past four years.  Yet his homers per at bat have actually declined over that period.  Even though his fly ball rate has increased.  That would indicate he is making less solid contact on the balls he DOES put into the air.

Pedro's ground out to air out ratio has declined from 1.43 in 2003 to 1.16, 1.14 and 0.93 the past three seasons.  This spring he has leveled out at 0.94.

Pedro has been unable to improve his strikeout rate much.  It's pretty much been around once every five at bats.  Even this spring he has struck out 14 times in 72 at bats, or once every 5.14 AB's.  And that's in Arizona, where the curve doesn't usually break as much.

I predicted Pedro would improve somewhat at the plate this season even BEFORE I knew of the work he did over the winter.  I'll stick with that prediction -- and even say I'm a touch more confident in it.  

But do you know why Pedro is batting 103 points higher than last season?  It's not so much because he is hitting more homers or putting more balls in play.  It is because he has improved his Batting Average on Balls In Play from .265 in 2006 to .400 this spring.  That isn't even CLOSE to being sustainable.  Much of Pedro's success this spring has come from good luck and the rare air of Arizona.  

A lot of Pedro's success this spring has been a mirage, much as was Lance Niekro's success last spring.  And you know that I said last spring that much of Lance's success in Arizona was also a mirage - at a time when many thought he was about to break through based on his hitting something like .390 in spring training.

Incidentally, much of Lance's success this preseason has also been illusory.  Lance is batting .382 on balls in play.  If he were batting a more traditional .294 on balls in play, his batting average would be .289.  If he were batting .265 on balls in play as Pedro Feliz did last season, his batting average would be .267.  Lance himself batted only .272 on balls in play in 2006, which was identical to his career mark on balls in play.

So Lance's hitting thus far this spring translates to something like .275 during the regular season.  Pedro's hitting translates to something closer to .245.  Neither player has done nearly as well this spring as his raw numbers would make it appear.

And neither player -- especially Feliz -- has performed in a manner that should make us feel that he has suddenly figured it all out.

Let me couch this statement only by adding that spring training is itself a small sample.  But even ignoring that aspect, we often tend to get a false picture of how well a player is likely to hit based on how well he hit in the spring.

I hope both Pedro and Lance have figured it out.  I can't say that even their stellar performances this spring make me confident either has done so.  The tremendous improvement each has appeared to show in his batting average appears to me to be far more illusory than real.

I wish the opposite were true.

by sharksrog on Mar 30, 2007 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
The idea that batters can not control thier BABIP is a silly as the idea that pitchers can't.  How is anyone going to hit above .300 if an above .300 BABIP is not sustanable?  For anyone to have an average above .300 thier BABIP will have to be even higher.  Ryan Howand strikes out way more then Pedro and he hit about .300 last year.  David Ortiz also strikes out more then Pedro and he has had seasons above a .300 BA.  Even players who have low strikeout rates for Power Hitters (like Bonds and Pujols) have to have a BABIP near .400 to hit .350+.  To me strike outs are no different then any other kind of out and have no predictive value when it comes to Batting Average or any other stat.

by giantsrainman on Mar 30, 2007 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
That preview seemed kind of out-of-touch in places. I mean, it really didn't address the big ?, that being Russ Ortiz, and its appraisal of ST seemed off- Matt Cain has not been a problem at all, with every outing showcasing something good, as far as I'm aware.

Also, I'm not sure there's reason to expect both Feliz and Winn to continue downward- Winn should benefit from hitting 8th (the author assumed that would be Molina's spot), as he already has in ST, and Feliz is in his contract year, and can probably do better than last season, at least marginally, especially since he will be relieved by backups A LOT more often, which will improve his D as well.

I'm actually more optimistic about most of the team than the author, but quite a bit more pessimistic about the bullpen, which I think was glossed over a little too much.

"Personally, I think we got hosed on that call." -Harry Doyle; Minor Izzy

by hairball on Mar 29, 2007 10:09 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
Not that I was at all concerned about it, but until his final start, Matt's spring training outings weren't very good.  Given that the analysis was likely written prior to Matt's last start (Monday, I think.), I thought it was OK.

by sharksrog on Mar 29, 2007 6:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
Matt Cain's strengths this spring have been his excellent 3.17 K/BB ratio and his 0.96 ground out to air out ratio, which represents a nice improvement over his 0.50 of 2005 and his 0.76 of 2006.  

Matt has given up only 6 walks in 24 1/3 innings of work this spring.  If he can even approach that rate, he will almost certainly have a very successful 2007.

by sharksrog on Mar 30, 2007 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
I'm an optimist, but I think there are some things not mentioned in this analysis that could happen to move them up: 1) Matt Cain is going to be a lot better overall than he was last year. 2) The possible rise of Timmeh 3) Bonds looks like he's in great shape and could be a lot better than last year. 4) Linden could get 400 AB and be a lot better than Winn 5) Klesko and Aurilia could wind up getting the majority of the time at 1st and 3rd. 6) Wilson finds the plate and becomes dominant. That's probably enough crazy thinking, but somebody has to get lucky this year. Why not us?
Just one time before I die

by Katman on Mar 29, 2007 10:11 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
The problem is that in order to succeed this seaosn, the Giants likely DO need to get lucky.

by sharksrog on Mar 29, 2007 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants

That's not such a bad thing. The Tigers got very lucky last year.

Everybody here can be realistic and say the Giants don't have the best team on paper in the National League. But that doesn't mean they won't win.

Just one time before I die

by Katman on Mar 29, 2007 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
so did the Cardinals
"Why you gotta be cardin' my hos?" - Charlie Hayes

by stevieg on Mar 29, 2007 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
Not being the best team on paper certainly DOESN'T mean a team won't win.  But not being at least very near to the top means that in order for that team to win it all, the team will need a good deal of luck.

Personally I would like to enter a Giants season not feeling they needed to be lucky in order to win it.  And I don't expect such a season the remainder of this decade -- unless the Giants are able to get two or three high-profile free agents before then.

The Giants pitching should be good enough before the end of the decade.  But take away Barry Bonds, and the Giants are likely little better offensivley than the 650-run team they were in 2005 when Barry missed almost the entire season.

Todd Linden looks like he can help a little.  And probably Nate Schierholtz, Eddie Martinez-Esteve and Kevin Frandsen yet this decade.  But none of that quartet looks like an impact player.

The Giants once had Bonds, Jeff Kent and Ellis Burks.  At the end of this season they could be down to nary an everyday player of that caliber.

by sharksrog on Mar 29, 2007 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
I was pretty surprised by how optimistic that was. I would have expected them to predict 90+ losses, to be honest.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Mar 29, 2007 10:21 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
I would be shocked if ANYONE predicted more than 90 losses for the Giants.  Yes, they could lose that many -- but they could also win 90 games.  Neither case is very likely IMO.

by sharksrog on Mar 29, 2007 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
The chances of the Giants winning 90 or more games can't be much better than one in 20.  They scored just 746 runs last year and don't show much proclivity for scoring more this season unless Bonds gets at least halfway back to where he was from 2001-2004.

If the Giants again score about 750 runs this seaoson, they likely would need to hold their opponents to only around 660 runs in order to win 90 games.  That's an improvement of 130 runs, or nearly a run per game.  Given the uncertainties in the bullpen, that doesn't appear likely to me.

Who would have believed going into spring training that Armando Benitez would become the only Giants reliever we could count on?  :)

by sharksrog on Mar 29, 2007 12:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
This all assumes little to no injuries. The Giants are not a team that will be able to handle too many injuries.

If/when Mando goes down, the pen gets even worse.

If/when Durham pulls a hammy, we'll lose a lot of production in the middle of the order.

Dave Roberts has never played a whole season and won't this year.

Vizquel will be 40 next month.

I hate to say it, but Bonds will be 43 in July and he's bound to have some physical problems this year. I still expect him to play 120 games this year. That still leaves about 42 games without our biggest bat. It isn't a coincidence that our recent woes have coincided with his injuries and struggles (and age). I'm not sure where we make up that production in those other 42 games.

Most, if not all, things need to break our way this year. I think our starting pitching will be mostly fine, but we'll have some trouble scoring runs and the bullpen will need to come together. I'm not sure that will happen. And if we're depending on a career year from Feliz, we're screwed.

We'd be pretty good if we didn't suck so bad.

by nostocksjustbonds on Mar 29, 2007 1:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
Durham:  Not if Aurilia steps in there.
Roberts:  That's also because he was platooned, rightfully so.
Bonds:  He's been bound to have physical problems all through his late 30's and into his 40's, so that's nothing new.  

I think Klesko is a big key to Giants success this season.  If he really is back to the Klesko before the shoulder problems he's a 900+ OPS hitter (even with the problems he was still better than most Giants hitters, he was an 800+ OPS hitter), he'll be a very capable replacement for Bonds in LF when Sir Bonds is resting, and he would boost the lineup greatly platooning at 1B with Aurilia (pushing Aurilia to 3B if Feliz is scuffling, so either Feliz is hitting well, around .790 OPS, or Aurilia is playing and hitting over that, or the two battle to keep 3B).

I think the starting rotation can be much better than just fine.  Zito and Cain are both capable of ace-type performances, but at worse they should be good #2 starters.  Lowry and Morris have shown that they can reach #2 performance when they are healthy.  Ortiz is the #5 spot where, as a study on The Hardball Times showed, most teams just sucked there, and if he can even provide a #3/#4 type of performance there, that's better than the majority of teams out there, and if he is back to old Ortiz standards, as his spring training seems to indicate, we will have a heck of an advantage in that spot.

The bullpen is worrisome but I think the starters we have are capable of going 6-7 innings regularly, and thus you won't be going to the middle relievers as often as we might have before.  That means it is just the setup men and closer who we should be concentrating on.  

Benitez has been taken over by a doppleganger and is actually pitching very well, dominatingly well.  Molina is working with him to reduce his pitches thrown per inning, meanwhile Bochy wants to use him more than an inning at a time, perhaps start him off in the 8th, which the reduced pitches would help greatly with.  I like Kline and he pitched very well the first half last year, but poorly in the second half, and that disappointed him, so he said in an interview, so he worked harder to be in better shape - middle age lowered mentabolism hits everyone and he's finally acknowledging that and working on it.  Chulk and Correia I think will be fine as the rightly set-up guys.

Using the numbers sharksrog used, the Giants scored 4.6 runs per game last year - I think this year will see an increase because the lineup is full of vets who can be expected to hit in the 700 OPS range, plus last year had a lot of sub-700 OPS - Finley, Winn, Feliz (2nd half), Alfonzo (after first month), 1B (not sure if sub but definitely sub a lot over what the average 1B does, which is the best hitting position).  

And I really like Roberts as the tablesetter, first true leadoff guy since Butler (OBP and SB) and with all the Rubic's cubing you can do with position players (there is a scenario where Bochy choses between playing Linden in LF or Feliz at 3B, shifting people around as necessary), you can play who has the hottest bat, whereas last year, if an infielder was out, you had to play Vizcaino and if an OF was out, you had to play Finley (well, didn't have to but did).

However, let's assume only the 4.6.  As I noted, I think the Giants rotation is capable of #2 performance overall.  That's at worse 4.20 ERA (Cain and Zito probably under by a bit, but Lowry, Morris, and Ortiz over by a bit, I think this would be middle ground for the group).  That works out to a 89 win season.

My thinking on rotation, probable worse they can do:
Zito:  3.80
Cain:  3.80
Lowry: 4.40
Morris: 4.50
Ortiz: 4.50

That's 4.20 average.

Zito:  don't see why predictions end up with higher ERA than last two years when he's moving to NL and there's a pitcher hitting 3 times and they don't know him, which I have to assume is a huge advantage since it is his curve that is the killer.

Cain:  given his clean bill of health regarding mechanics, I think it is pure speculation that he's "due" for tired arm.  His arm wasn't too tired when he was shutting down all those teams late in the season.

Lowry:  I think he'll do way better than this, but wanted to be conservative to make my point.  He was a sub 4 ERA starter when healthy.  Even when he was messed up last season, he still had his ERA in the low 4's until he had his elbow problems (probably due to changing his mechanics due to his injury).

Morris:  I think he'll do way better than this too, but again was conservative.  He was a low-to-mid 4 ERA until around the period when he somehow broke his rib.  Now that he's settled with the team (no overthrowing like he did early in the season) and healthy (hopefully), he should be able to deliver a pretty good performance in 2007, with only the injury bugaboo lurking, but with Lincecum in the minors, I'm not too worried.

Ortiz:  from all indications, he looks like the Ortiz of old.  The Ortiz of old delivered high 3, low 4 ERA.  Again, conservative.

I think I was conservative with all this and yet I come up with a 88 win season.  I fudge a bit there because I did not account for the bullpen, but given all the possibilities for higher performances from all the starters, I think my conservatism there covers for the bullpen's wide range of possibilities.

Go Giants!!!

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Mar 30, 2007 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
Part of the concern about Matt's arm stems from his last three starts being pretty awful after, as you pointed out, he had been dynamite between early May and the middle of September.  In those final three starts, Matt had an 8.00 ERA and a WHIP of 1.89 -- after allowing only one earned run in his previous six starts.  

Matt had pitched a lot in those six starts, averaging over a full inning MORE than he had averaged in his previous starts on the season.

by sharksrog on Mar 30, 2007 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
I really can see this team winning 90.
Feliz lives bats .270 and learns to take a walk.
Mando is solid, though his stuff is not great he can still close out games (joe borkowski, Todd Jones).
The starting rotation goes deeper into games and gives the bullpen a rest.
Aurilesko = .295 EqA 45 HR total
Durham either remembers how to field and sustains his offensive production, or Frandsden becomes Bobby Thompson and inspires us all.

Oh, and all the dodgers get hernias.  That'd help.

Because you can't replace production like 22 home runs. My adopted Giant: Pedro Feliz

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Mar 29, 2007 2:55 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
check that EqA.  I was half paying attention to a lecture.  that was supposed to be like .270 with a slugging over .500
Because you can't replace production like 22 home runs. My adopted Giant: Pedro Feliz

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Mar 29, 2007 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
You are what I would refer to as a cock-eyed optimist.

Can't say I blame ya, but the closer the season gets the dimmer my outlook.  That can't bode well - I'm usually in denial about these things until we're 10 games under .500.

by losingcalifornia on Mar 29, 2007 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
Pedro Feliz is said to have worked hard on changing his style at the plate.  I would say that his hitting results this spring have been impressive.  But the last time I looked, he hadn't taken even a SINGLE walk.  

Pedro is a hacker.  Likely the best we can hope for from him is to become a BETTER hacker.  He might be the Giants best fielder at his position though.  That is where his strength lies.  Too bad fielding isn't as important from one's third baseman as hitting.

by sharksrog on Mar 29, 2007 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
The starting rotation may indeed go deeper into games this season than last, but did you know that Barry Zito actually average a sixth of an inning LESS per start than did Jason Schmidt?

by sharksrog on Mar 30, 2007 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
I'll take 84-78.  I'm not sure about Bonds being 40-50 runs better than last year but I'm sure Matt Cain will be better than last year.

BTW - it sucks that tonight's game isn't on TV.

"Why you gotta be cardin' my hos?" - Charlie Hayes

by stevieg on Mar 29, 2007 3:18 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
The problem with so many of these nationwide writer's is that they just look at stats, they just look at the starting lineup, without any real sense or recognition of how the season will actually play out.  Looking at the OF, for example, last year we had a down year for Bonds, a down year from Winn, an awful year from Finley, and a good 1/2 year from Alou.
  This year, I expect we get 400 ABs from Bonds, Roberts, Winn, and Linden.  Roberts, Winn, and Linden I think give us 30 more runs than Winn, Alou, Finley.  Bonds gives us 3 more runs this year.
  To say that Feliz is expected to continue his downward trend is a pretty useless statement.  Feliz got 600 ABs last year because there were no options.  This year, Bochy has plenty of options.  If Feliz hits less than 275 he will have a hard time finding playing time.  Bochy will play the productive player at 3b, whether that be Feliz, Aurelia, or Frandsen.  And if Feliz '07 = Feliz '06, Bochy will use the Niekro/Klesko platoon at 1b and the Aurelia/Frandsen platoon at 3b.  I think this is 20 more runs from 1b and 15 more runs from 3b, regardless who the names are.  O production from C is up a little, SS and 2b are down a little, more or less cancelling each other out.  The Bench is better as well.  Or are we longing for T. Green, Sweeney, et al?  The bench will actually play more this year, meaning that they are sharper and when called upon to pinch hit will be more productive than last year's bench.
  But I cannot bring myself to talk about the pen yet.

by allfrank on Mar 29, 2007 3:29 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
How do you know that the nationwide writers look only at stats?  I am amazed at the depth of understanding some of them have for the 30 teams.  I guess if one is bright and it is his job, he can accomplish that.

by sharksrog on Mar 29, 2007 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Baseball Think Factory Preview of 2007 Giants
I can only hope that Bochy actually does something when guys suck up the joint this year.  With Felipe, it was hopeless - he kept sending Feliz out there over and over and over and over again.  Same with Niekro and then Hillenbrand.  Same with Blownitez.

If Feliz sucks, I want to see more Aurilia (or Frandsen, if need be).  If Winn sucks, I want to see more Linden.  If the pen sucks, stop sending the same guys out there over and over again!

I don't want to see ridiculous micromanagement every time a guy has an 0-fer, but at least we won't have Asleep at the Wheel again.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Mar 29, 2007 4:10 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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