I thought the author was pretty even-handed, pointing out how the comparisons could go either way, but making the very valid if somewhat obvious conclusion that merely paying someone like an ace doesn't make him one.

Brian Sabean is taking a large risk with Zito, both in terms of salary per season and particularly in terms of years.  I think he felt he needed to take that large a risk lest he be deemed guilty of coming away from his first year with money to spend without a big catch.

I could easily be wrong, but my sense is that had the Giants landed one of the sluggers who they had as higher priorities than Barry, they wouldn't have signed Zito.  For one thing, they likely would have been out of money.  For another, they wouldn't have needed to gamble as much in order to make a splash.

There is much to like about Zito, if only that Barry was in contact with Nick Swisher's girlfriend before Nick was.  :)  But there are an awful lot of question marks for a price tag of $126 million.

The Giants paid for great. What they got was good.  They can only hope that they get at least a few more great years from Barry -- and that his health continues to be great through age 35.

Whether it will have an impact or not (The signs argue toward a positive response.), Barry has thrown the second-most pitches of any major league pitcher over the past six seasons.  He has thrown over 22,000 pitches.  Over those half dozen years Barry has averaged more pitches than likely any Giants pitcher has thrown in a single season since the 1980's or before.  He has AVERAGED more than in any single season by a Giants pitcher for quite some time.

The scary thing about Zito isn't his workload per se. It's that his performance has been in a steady decline for years. He needs to reverse that if he's going to have a Glavinesque career.

I do give Mark credit for being a long-distance fan from New York who watches the Giants play not only in New York but also in San Francisco and even in Florida.  He also tends to be pretty knowledgeable about the Giants.

The only significant difference between the two was that prior to signing the contract, Hampton was mostly improving, while Zito was mostly regressing.  The ERA+ for Hampton went 115, 107, 104, 121, 150 and 139.  Zito's has gone 125, 169, 129, 105, 116 and 116.  

In the four seasons prior to their contract signings, Hampton averaged 223 inning per season, with Zito averaging 224.  That certainly isn't to say that Zito's career will fall by the wayside as Hampton's did.  

Hampton has had arm problems, yet still has been about an average pitcher since he signed his contract.  Yes, he was a huge disappointment given the size of the contract, but it's not as if he suddenly became Jamey Wright.  

Barry's next two comps, Ramon Martinez and Ray Culp, pretty much fell apart soon after age 28, but the two after that, Johnny Podres and Mickey Lolich, pitched well for several more seasons (although Podres' innings soon began a rather rapid decline).  

Of Zito's next five comps, only Tom Glavine didn't decline rather quickly after age 28. But we should remember first of all that these are merely comps, not Barry himself.  

We should also remember that the comps have shown that Barry himself could have a long prosperous career such as Glavine and Lolich went on to enjoy -- or that he could decline anywhere from very quickly to gradually as did the others.  We probably shouldn't take great comfort from Zito's comps, since more did rather poorly after age 28 than did well.  

His #1 comp -- and the only other pitcher who received a large, seven-year contract -- has gone on to be better than most people give him credit for.  Mike Hampton merely hasn't come anywhere close to justifying his nine-figure contract.  

With 20/20 hindsight on Hampton if not Zito, we can safely say that Barry has a better chance of justifying his contract than Mike has.  But the two pitchers who have signed seven-year contracts to date (Hampton and Kevin Brown), haven't come close to justifying them.  

There aren't many pitchers who COULD justify a huge seven-year contract.  Hopefully Barry Zito will be one of the elite and can and will become the first to do so.  The Giants are betting $126 million that he can.

But Barry Zito has received the benefit of pitching in a pitchers' park over his entire career.  Barry should give up fewer homers in The Booth (Lord knows he had BETTER, given that he's averaged 27 homers against over the past three seasons.), but he may yield more hits.

The most positive thing seems to be that Barry himself recognized his need to reinvent himself if he were to have a decent shot at justifying the contract.  He has added ten pounds of leg muscle, strenghthened and improved the flexibility of his core and is trying to use his body more in order to reduce any strain on his arm.

He certainly pitched well earlier this week, albeit it over only two innings.  Barry has a history of bad Aprils and recently of poor Septembers. If he can eliminate any bad months, he should actually pitch pretty well.

Given that Barry will AVERAGE more per season than Matt Cain will now make over the next five seasons combined, it is important to the Giants that he do so.  The Giants are investing roughly the same percentage of their available salary in Zito over the next seven years as they did with the other Barry over the past seven.  

In Bonds they got the best player in the game.  In Zito they almost certainly didn't.  But in order to justify the contract, at the very least the younger Barry needs to be ONE of the best.  

He needs to pitch much more like Mickey Lolich and Tom Glavine, his #5 and #6 comps, than like Mike Hampton, Ramon Martinez and Ray Culp, his #1, #2 and #3 comps.  He needs to average many more innings than Johnny Podres, his #4 comp and hold serve better than Juan Pizarro, Ron Darling, Kevin Appier and Jack McDowell, his #7 through #10 comps.

At least one of his top comps isn't SAM McDowell.  Barry needs to pitch more like Gaylord Perry.