Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

by Kid Fresh on Feb 4, 2007 7:01 PM PST

In my estimation- barring injury or trade- 9 of the 12 slots on the SF Giants pitching staff are mortal locks:

DEFINITELY IN:

Barry Zito

Matt Cain

Noah Lowry

Matt Morris

Jonathan Sanchez

Steve Kline

Kevin Correia

Brad Hennessey

Armando Benitez

Of the 3 spots remaining...

WOULD HAVE TO PITCH THEIR WAY OUT:

Brian Wilson

Vinnie Chulk

Russ Ortiz

You just know someone from the above list of twelve pitchers won't work out, will be injured, or traded, which leaves...

TOP CANDIDATES TO PITCH THEIR WAY IN:

Billy Sadler

Jack Taschner

Patrick Misch

Scott Munter

LONG SHOTS:

David Cortes

Sun-Woo Kim

Eric Threets

Damian Moss

Justin Hedrick

Kelyn Acosta

VIRTUAL NO-SHOTS

Ryan Meaux

Scott Atchison

Daniel Giese

Carlos Hines

Matt Palmer

Mitch Wylie

POST ALL-STAR BREAK, AT EARLIEST:

Tim Linecum

Nick Pereira

Tyler Walker

Is the pitching staff set? Who is the leading "dark horse" candidate? Who will surprise in spring training?

Poll

Best shot to make opening day roster:

David Cortes

3 votes

Sun-Woo Kim

3 votes

Eric Threets

6 votes

Damian Moss

3 votes

Justin Hedrick

2 votes

Kelyn Acosta

1 votes

Billy Sadler

40 votes

Jack Taschner

25 votes

Patrick Misch

8 votes

Scott Munter

5 votes

96 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Comments

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

I'd rather have Billy Sadler than most of the guys you have as locks. He's definitely more ready than Brian Wilson, and I think he'll beat him out for the last spot.

DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Feb 4, 2007 7:09 PM PST reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

Wilson was downright unhittable in the Puerto Rican Winter League, saving 14 games in 14 tries and not allowing a single run in 17 appearances. Sabean is raving about him, and while I think they both will make the team, I think if it comes down to Sadler and Wilson, Sadler is going back to the minors.

by rxmeister on Feb 5, 2007 7:57 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

I'm not sure what you mean about Sadler, Jake. He was very shaky in his big league cup o' coffee last September. Wilson looks ready to be solid, if not necessarily an ace closer. I think Sadler will start at AAA and be one of the first bullpen callups.

Never mind whatever I do!!! Fan is my tresure!!!

by leftymalo on Feb 5, 2007 8:27 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

Wilson has the edge in stuff, but going by the numbers it looks like Sadler is definitely more ready:

Sadler (AA, AAA, and MLB): 2.89 RA in 59 IP, 12.8 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9.
Wilson (A, AAA, and MLB): 4.47 RA in 58.1 IP, 8.3 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9.

Wilson posted a nearly 1:1 K/BB ratio in the majors last year with an ERA above five, which I think points to shaky more than Sadler's cup-of-coffee (where he did fan six in five innings). PECOTA does actually agree with you, forecasting Wilson at 4.80 and Sadler at 4.97 but I think Sadler's excellent strikeout rates and better (if still shaky) control point more towards short-term success

DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Feb 6, 2007 1:15 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

FWIW, PECOTA actually sees Jack Taschner as the best of the bunch. I think the Giants have the making of a decent and very cheap bullpen for the next few years. Too bad they also have the makings for a historically terrible lineup...

DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Feb 6, 2007 1:18 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

You're cooking the books slightly with your choice of numbers ('06 v '06). The vast majority of Sadler's innings last year (46) were spent at AA -- a league he was repeating for the second time (he originally moved to Norwich mid-way through the '04 season) AND an extreme pitcher's league. A little more than half of Wilson's innings (and virtually all of the numbers killing ones) were spent in SF where he was experiencing some typical rookie transition issues. All but 1 of the rest were in the PCL, an extreme hitter's league where he pitched extremely well.

I don't think a straightup comparison of the two seasons sans content really tells a very reliable story. A comparison of Sadler's '06 to Wilson's '05 (A AA and AAA, 1.35 ERA in 60IP 9.75 k/9 3.0 bb/9, 0.0 hr/9) would tell a different tale.

by Roger on Feb 6, 2007 6:36 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

Yeah, I did mean to mention the AA bit in my analysis. Like I said, I think there's an argument to be made either way, I just think Wilson's control isn't quite at the point where I'd expect him to be more reliable than Sadler in the big leagues.

DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Feb 6, 2007 1:26 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

Take out Benitez who goes in a trade to Florida (I hope, I hope, I hope, ......) and add both Wilson and Sadler and I think you have the list. The "big surprise" will be if Lincecum makes the opening day roster.

yob

by Sayhey on Feb 4, 2007 7:47 PM PST reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

I would put Ortiz as a guy who has to pitch his way in. He's not on the 40-man roster and he could just blow up this spring, regardless of how he pitched in Mexico.

Sanchez could be a guy who pitches his way out of the rotation, especially if Ortiz pitches well. Likely, the team will want him to get some starts in Fresno rather than be in the bullpen.

I wouldn't be surprised if Hennessey or Correia get dealt.

I can't see a way for Lincecum to make the opening day roster, regardless of how he pitches this spring. The team's brass is just too conservative for that.

We'd be pretty good if we didn't suck so bad.

by nostocksjustbonds on Feb 4, 2007 10:05 PM PST reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

Actually, Ortiz is on the 40 man roster and his contract was a major league deal not minor league deal. But the commitment is only for $380K so if he does not work out the Giants will just release him.

by giantsrainman on Feb 4, 2007 10:24 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

Hennessey maybe, but I would be shocked if they dealt Correia. I think Correia was the only one in that bullpen last year that came out of it smelling like a rose. The rest of them all had ups and downs, to put it mildly. I think he starts the season as the primary setup man.

by rxmeister on Feb 5, 2007 7:59 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

My "Definately In"s is a much smaller list. I do not see Sanchez, Hennessey or Benitez as being guarenteed roster spots. Sanchez and Hennessey both still have minor league options and Benitez is likely to be traded if healthy or released if not. But I also see Chulk as being a "Definately In" since he does not have any minor league options left and has proven himself to be a decent major league reliever. Therefore, as I see it, we only have 7 (not 9) "Definately In"s.

In addition to Wilson and Ortiz I see Sanchez, Hennessey, and Sadler on the "Have To Pitch Their Way Out" list.

I see Benitez, Walker, Cortes, Kim, and Moss joining Taschner, Misch, and Munter on the "Pitch Their Way In" list.

Finally, I see no measureable distinction between the rest that would warrent rating any of them long shots or possible post AllStar call ups with the sole exception of Lincecum. Tim is ready now but will likely have to wait until later.

by giantsrainman on Feb 4, 2007 10:51 PM PST reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

Benitez is as much a lock as anyone, sorry to say. If the offseason rumors are true, the Giants are holding out for a much higher return than I think most were expecting; I doubt they'll release him based on a bad Spring.

by Bhaakon on Feb 5, 2007 12:37 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

I think the Giants are just playing hardball with the Marlins right now, and they are certainly right to do so. You can't get him for nothing AND get the Giants to eat his salary. You want him for nothing, you pay him, and if you want the Giants to pay the freight, then you give them something decent. If the Marlins want him for no talent and no financial obligation, the Giants just might as well put him on waivers. Who knows, maybe some team gets desperate and puts in a claim. While highly unlikely, it's better than paying him anyway and getting a player from the Marlins that you have absolutely no use for.

by rxmeister on Feb 5, 2007 8:03 AM PST reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

Petit is alot more than "no talent". He's not an elite prospect, but an elite prospect is an unreasonable expectation for Benitez. Again, that assumes the reporting is accurate.

by Bhaakon on Feb 5, 2007 12:49 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

Good to see someone thinks that highly of Pereira. His half season in Fresno is daunting but he stuck there despite struggling. They had to have a reason for keeping him there. I think he'd make a decent addition to the bullpen or back end starter at best once he's ready to come up permanently.

"Strikeouts are boring. Besides that, they're fascist." Not fascist: SF Dugout

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Feb 5, 2007 9:54 AM PST reply actions

Wilson?

I am all for Wilson getting a shot but perhaps I wasn't seeing what you were all seeing during the regular season.

Wilson, while he can rush it up there, seemed extremely hittable. His performance last year makes me a bit nervous handing him the ball in 2007 (luckily I don't have to actually hand it to him).

Someone set me straight on Wilson. Does he have just absolutely devastating stuff? Did he have trouble simply because he is a young pitcher? What kind of upside are we talking about?

I can't respect a team that wears Sonoran Red and black jerseys.

by camwoody on Feb 5, 2007 11:33 AM PST reply actions

Re: Wilson?

Great question. Not sure how much we can surmise with a 30 inning sample size. I think what everybody likes is that he has two qualities that are hard to teach; velocity and moxie. Dude throws hard and didn't appear to be overwhelmed out there. Personally, I'm more concerned with the walks he gave up than the hits.

I think we'll know a lot more when we see how he looks in Spring Training, where he'll be more of an incumbent this time and will certainly be thinking he belongs.

Biggest mankinder in the history of no brain.

by Goofus on Feb 5, 2007 12:21 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Wilson?

People like him for the same reason they like(d) Tyler Walker. Wilson's fastball is better than Walker's, however, his command is not.

I'm puzzled that Wilson seems be ranking higher on the depth chart than Correia.

by Bhaakon on Feb 5, 2007 12:53 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Wilson?

There is a huge difference between Wilson and Walker. Literally and figuratively, but they are related. Walker lacked the self-discipline to do the minimum requirement to stay physically healthy. He bordered on morbid obesity. That just doesn't fly at the MLB level. His arm got torqued if not as a direct result, at least as a contributing factor. Abdominal muscles are extremely important to a power pitcher like Walker. Six inches of top cover did him no good.

Wilson is significantly physically superior in terms of conditioning. He strikes me as a Rambo personality. The bigger the danger, the more he likes it. He definitely thrives on risk.

He reminds me of a young Rod Beck.

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Feb 5, 2007 5:43 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Wilson?

Perhaps because of small sample size, perhaps because of a strained oblique, but everyone's missing the fact that Wilson's best pitch isn't his fastball, it's his slider which has a very sharp Robb Nen-like downward break when it's on. That's the separation between Wilson and the others. Now whether he can harness it is another question of course.

by Roger on Feb 6, 2007 5:12 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Wilson?

He also had a curve ball that everyone loved when he was drafted. Someone mentioned it when he had Q&A while playing in the AFL in 2006 and he said he would look into it again.

He was lights out coming up the minors, but stumbled when he got to the majors the first time. Wouldn't be the first time a player did that. Look at his minors in 2005 if you want to see what he can do.

From BB-Ref, his OPS against him by month:

Month - PA - OPS - BABIP
April - 8 - .500 - .400
May - 18 - .675 - .273
June - 4 - 1.750 - 1.000
July - 68 - .881 - .333
August- 15 - .666 - .300
Sept. - 28 - .538 - .278

I wouldn't hold the small sampling against Wilson and abnormal BABIP (above .300) appear to account for the bad months.

Go Giants!!!

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Feb 7, 2007 9:52 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Wilson?

His BABIP may have been high in the majors last season, but Wilson has walked 42 batters in 68.2 career AAA and MLB innings. Clearly has has stellar stuff, but this idea that he's going to step right up as the closer or primary setup man and save the bullpen seems premature.

by Bhaakon on Feb 8, 2007 1:10 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

Oh you all know Damian Moss makes the team. Probably just so Sabes can have both him and Ortiz on the roster and claim that was his plan all along.

by zenbitz on Feb 5, 2007 1:18 PM PST reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

Thank you so very much. Now would you please help remove the fork from my eye.

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Feb 5, 2007 5:44 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

When removing the fork from your eye, it's best to use a spoon.

Don't as me why it is, but believe me when I say it is. I worked in a fork factory as the quality control prong examiner. This problem came up.

Coming to you by proxy

by howtheyscored on Feb 5, 2007 6:12 PM PST up reply actions

Tine, and tine again

by Moggeee on Feb 8, 2007 1:28 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

good point. Now he can go back and claim that was a good trade!! He'll probably do the same thing in about 15 years with AJ Pierzynski, Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano. Look for them all to end their careers with the Giants!!

by rxmeister on Feb 5, 2007 7:02 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

I think it's Taschner. Even though he pitched poorly last year, he was very good in 2005 and I think it's more likely that his 2005 form is the real one than his 2006 form.

Remember 1962!

by El Person on Feb 5, 2007 3:36 PM PST reply actions

Re: Pitching- Who Will Surprise?

The biggest surprise?

El Mando.

When he comes into Spring Training sporting Mandowear, throws 18 innings of hitless, walkless, runless throwdown 100mph fastballs and 92mph 12 to 6 sliders, and apologizes to Omar Visquel and Ray Durham and gives all credit to Barry Bonds, Dave Righetti and Bruce Boche as the new Man-gods of the baseball realm.

(inhales: "doooooood.... so like where did u get this most excellent stuff???"........exhales

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Feb 5, 2007 5:48 PM PST reply actions