Community Projection: Noah Lowry

Damm, Grant and Rainman agree who would have thought it.

Starter 4 Noah Lowry:
BP sees 150 Innings with 4.56/1.41 ERA/WHIP
Rainman sees 192 Innings with 3.89/1.33 ERA/WHIP

BP further sees 100/54/19 SO/BB/HR
Rainman further sees 128/64/21 SO/BB/HR

ERA: 4.19*
IP: 185
K: 119
BB: 64
HR Allowed: 22

* I could easily imagine his ERA being anywhere between 3.30 and 5.50

The only thing that didn't decline last year for Noah were the shrieks from female fans.

This year, though, he has plenty of competition for those love calls from newcomer Barry Zito, who will probably bring his own contingent of vocal female well wishers.

Noah's just going to have to learn to share the pie. Uhh, pies.

Huh. No one on last year's thread predicted an ERA higher than 3.88 for Lowry.

Lowry seemed to come out of nowhere, so I'm not completely convinced that his first year and a half wasn't a little fluky. But I think he can get back nearly to that level.

ERA: 4.10
IP: 202
K: 153
BB: 69
HR Allowed: 22

Lowry turning in a solid season is my stone-cold lock of the year... (barring injury)... cough...

Sure I'm optimistic about Morris and Cain and whoever happens to be our fifth starter, but I believe in Noah whole-heartedly. Not only did he pitch through an injury last season, but his numbers were also a bit deceptive. I don't know how many times I watched him pitch a fantastic game with the exception of one god-awful inning. And the blow-up usually happened right around the 100-pitch mark.

Lowry just had a terrible time pitching out of trouble in the 6th and 7th innings last year. Also, in an equally uncanny number of times last year, Lowry would leave an inning with a lead and one or two outs with runners on first and second and the reliever would come in and not only allow the runners to score (upping his ERA), but would blow the lead, costing Lowry the eventual win or saddling him with the loss.

Of course I have no statistics backing this up, it's just observations on what I saw last year. But Lowry is my favorite pitcher in the rotation and I always made sure to catch the game when he was on the mound. I'm confident he's going to be solid.

I predict he'll finish with a better era than Zito.

I think its important to note how bad Lowry's September screwed with his overall ERA.

After his typical outstanding August, he went into September with an ERA of 3.75.  After his first two starts in September (both poor) it rose to 4.19.  Still a respectable number for all he went through.  But what really screwed him was his outing in Colorado, when he gave up 9 runs in 1.1 innings, skyrocketing his era to 4.7, and it finished up at 4.74.

If there are no more injuries or late season collapse, i can see Lowry be anywhere between 3.6 and 4.2 era.

i kind of see him like a cross between a woody and russ ortiz (without the huge gut).  like i have read in this post, he goes through a couple of innings no problem and then he can't find the strike zone.  then he bites off too much of the zone and gets taken yard or into the alley.  but he has a little bit of reuter in him in that he is a gamer.  he will battle and that is something you like to see.  i think he will never be a 20 game winner.  in fact i think he will max out at 15 wins.  but if you get that from your number 3 or 4 guy, then you have a damn good starting pitching staff.

ERA: 4.22
IP: 181
K: 122
BB: 55
HR Allowed: 23

Grant, I think that floor is going to be messy again this year. I actually hope Noah does slightly better in the first half of the year, making him a tradeable commodity in July; he can give up most of those homers as a Met.

IP=

honestly, this is the low end of what i see him doing this year, taking into account the possibility that the oblique wasn't 100% to blame...

IP=184
ERA=4.08
K=136
BB=63
HR=20
W-L= 11-9
number of times referred to on national television (sportscenter included)=3*
number of times meriting mention on national television=57#

*: increases to 7,694 if he begins throwing BP to Bonds
#: 22 of which involve Lowry base hits