Community Projection: Ray Durham
Difference between baseball players and basketball players: I understand that Ray Durham is short relative to his peers, but not freakishly so. Still, I saw him outside Mays Field once, and I was about the same height. I didn't expect that. Contrast that with Lil' Monta Ellis, who darts in and out of NBA traffic because he's so wee and quick. I walked past Ellis recently, and the guy was mammoth. Huge. Your perspective gets warped watching this stuff on television.
Basketball players are taller than baseball players. How much longer can I avoid charging for this stuff?
If anything opens a community projection better than a pointless anecdote, I'd like to read it. I was optimistic about Durham last year, but I still underestimated him. I'd love to underestimate him again. The power can't last, though. Players can develop some late-career power, sure, but that's much more an exception than a rule. Durham had the best non-Barry power season from any left-handed hitter in the history of Mays Field, and expecting that to continue is silly. The Giants didn't sign him thinking he'd do it again, but, hey, they'd take it.
Ray Durham
AB: 489
AVG: .278
OBP: .363
SLG: .481
HR: 18
Number of times someone refers to his defense as if he were a legless Steve Sax: 1240
Number of times he deserves it: Five? Six? Seriously, he isn't that bad. He has reverse Jeff Kent range - not bad to his left, a little dicey up the middle - but he turns a fine double play. I'd rate him as slightly below average.
He'll still have some power, but he ain't a five-hitter. He's still a very nice player to have, and has been the least of the Giants' worries for the past four years. He's the least of their worries now; it isn't his fault the Giants don't have any other power threats.
0 recs |
58 comments
Comments
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
AB: 410
AVG: .299
OBP: .376
SLG: .477
HR: 13
by Evan on Feb 23, 2007 11:34 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by sharksrog on Feb 23, 2007 4:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
AB: 502
AVG: .287
OBP: .377
SLG: .461
HR: 21
by groug on Feb 23, 2007 11:38 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
My stunning 180
AB: 540
AVG: .292
OBP: .366
SLG: .495
HR: 27
RBI: 105
by Moggeee on Feb 23, 2007 11:41 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: My stunning 180
AB: 510
BA: 290
HR: 19
by allfrank on Feb 23, 2007 11:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: My stunning 180
by Evan on Feb 23, 2007 12:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: My stunning 180
http://www.baseball-fever.com/archive/index.php/t-24351.html
How healthy his legs will be now that Conte is with the Dodgers is open to question.
by da5id on Feb 23, 2007 1:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: My stunning 180
by nostocksjustbonds on Feb 23, 2007 1:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: My stunning 180
by zenbitz on Feb 23, 2007 2:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No interest
by Moggeee on Feb 23, 2007 2:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sax' arm is still in the church parking lot.
by E Ticket on Feb 23, 2007 4:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Sax' arm is still in the church parking lot.
by VidaWantsYourCar on Feb 23, 2007 8:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Why Ray will Shine this year
His power and productivity increased as 2006 proceeded. This bodes well that Ray will carry his home run and RBI momentum into 2007.
(Also, the Big Guy hitting in front of Durham seems poised to be healthier this year, and that rising tide elevates all the ships in the immediate vicinity.)
by Moggeee on Feb 23, 2007 2:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Man Overboard!
by E Ticket on Feb 23, 2007 4:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: My stunning 180
That Ray and the Giants training staff have made adjustments is illustrated by his having played in 279 games the past two seasons compared to just 230 his first two years with the club.
That said, I doubt Ray will have as good a season as you predict, primarily because his SLG would be higher than any he had prior to last season and his 27 homers would not only be a career high, but seven more than he had ever hit in a season prior to 2006.
by sharksrog on Feb 23, 2007 4:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
BP sees 520 PAs with .373/.500/.873 OBP/SLG/OPS
Rainman sees 600 PAs with .362/.523/.885 OBP/SLG/OPS
BP further sees .304 AVG and 17 HRs
Rainman further sees 532 ABs with .289 AVG and 27 HRs
Ray now knows how to keep his legs healthy and he has completed the conversion from a top of the order hitter to a middle of the order hitter. Ray will play more in 2007 then 2006 and at the same level.
by giantsrainman on Feb 23, 2007 12:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by allfrank on Feb 23, 2007 2:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What a fast & loose use of the verb RUN
by Moggeee on Feb 23, 2007 2:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by xanthan on Feb 23, 2007 3:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by E Ticket on Feb 23, 2007 4:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by oldrips on Feb 23, 2007 12:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by Evan on Feb 23, 2007 12:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
I hope its my bad eyesight and old age and bad attitude that makes me write this. Actually its a reverse jinx thingie. The more I despair, the better he will perform. That seemed to work for Matt Cain on Open Gameday Threads for a couple of the regulars.
by E Ticket on Feb 23, 2007 5:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by allfrank on Feb 23, 2007 11:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by Poe on Feb 23, 2007 12:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by Cynema the Band on Feb 23, 2007 12:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
this town thinks you're a bastard - Elvis Costello
by EliminateMe on Feb 23, 2007 3:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by Cynema the Band on Feb 23, 2007 3:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by Azmanz on Feb 23, 2007 3:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by Cynema the Band on Feb 23, 2007 3:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by sharksrog on Feb 23, 2007 4:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by Rusty the Mechanical Man on Feb 23, 2007 12:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
This year? Eh, who knows. Just a random guess.
AB: 460
AVG: .284
OBP: .359
SLG: .475
HR: 16
by Kitspool on Feb 23, 2007 12:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
AVG: .289
OBP: .358
SLG: .498
HR: 20
Not a bad little ballplayer, our Ray.
by Pants Man on Feb 23, 2007 12:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
AB: 514
AVG: .296
OBP: .371
SLG: .495
HR: 20
DL-trips: 0
Times Ray misses 3-4 games with a hammy issue: 3
Can't say I agree that Ray has learned how to take care of his legs. I think the Giants have figured out that it's better to give him a couple games off here and there than have him out for a month.
by W8ingForATitle on Feb 23, 2007 12:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
the bull
AVG=.289
OBP=.360
SLG=.484
HR=19
basically, what Grant said.
by nick on Feb 23, 2007 12:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Optimist here. I think Ray is poised for a big year.
AB 520
Avg. .287
OBP. .362
SLG. .450
HR 20
Second basemen in their contract year? Think Robbie Thompson and Jeff Kent. I predict a similarly solid year for Durham.
I think he can do what I projected for last year. I would be pleased if he did it.
by out machine on Feb 23, 2007 3:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by sharksrog on Feb 23, 2007 4:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by nick on Feb 24, 2007 6:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Hits: 144
AVG: .286
OBP: .355
SLG: .488
HR's: 21
SB's: 8
CS: 2
by NeifiChicken on Feb 23, 2007 3:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
If Ray tries to steal a base...
by Moggeee on Feb 23, 2007 8:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Great Carnack Projection:
HITS: 234
AVG: .360
OBP: .401
SLG: .533
OPS: .934
HRS: 75
SBS: 117
CS: 117
Height 6-11
Ray breaks Barry's HR record for Single Season
Ray also breaks Rickey Hendersons record for SB in a single season.
Ray also sets the record for Caught Stealings
As you can tell, Ray Ray will attempt to steal everytime he reaches base; including the 75 times he homers, by stealing 1b after he crosses homeplate.
He also breaks record for Human Growth Hormone Ingestion by growing 15 inches in the offseason.
by E Ticket on Feb 23, 2007 5:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Playing it safe, I see
by Moggeee on Feb 23, 2007 8:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by NearestNorwich on Feb 23, 2007 5:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
His legs looked absolutely stork-like. It was sad.
by JKGiants on Feb 23, 2007 6:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Sadly 'Nute has had to bear far more than such a nice guy should have to bear.
by sharksrog on Feb 24, 2007 1:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
401 At bats
.271/.351/.421
17 HR
by lyricalkiller on Feb 23, 2007 5:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Kent .293
Biggio .287
Alomar .285
Vidro .279
Knoblauch .275
Loretta .269
Bret Boone .264
Am I forgetting anyone? Ray's obviously a better long-term player than Vidro or Knoblauch. A few older guys:
Larkin .290
Sandberg .285
Whitaker .281
Randolph .275
Trammell .273
So Jeff Kent is better than Ryne Sandberg . . . any objections? And why is Alan Trammell supposed to be a hall of famer again?
by Evan on Feb 24, 2007 7:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by E Ticket on Feb 24, 2007 8:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
AB: 530
AVG: .305
OBP: .389
SLG: .490
HR: 24
RBI: 100 (Hitting behind a better Bonds)
R: 85
SB: 7
http://giantsbaseballblog.blogspot.com/
by trecole696 on Feb 23, 2007 7:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Trecole joins me
by Moggeee on Feb 24, 2007 8:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
AVG: .271
OBP: .365
SLG: .427
HR: 13
Ray Ray: I see minor injuries, a power decline,
but good plate discipline (OBP).
I'm rooting for Kevin Frandsen, but
I think he's a .240-hitting scrappy
back-up second baseman. Nothing more.
I still like him on the team to back-up Durham.
by Kid Fresh on Feb 24, 2007 7:12 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
AB: 469
AVG: .278
OBP: .351
SLG: .469
HR: 17
I think he'll spend some time on the DL. He's a nice guy by all accounts, and I certainly understand why the team resigned him when other free agents didn't sign with us. But I'm ready to move on at 2B.
by Lyle on Feb 24, 2007 8:43 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by allfrank on Feb 24, 2007 10:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
by oldrips on Feb 24, 2007 11:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
I apologize for taking this out on you, but I am fucking sick and tired of people parroting roto-leaguer mentality as if baseball players were actually nothing more than a collection of semi-related statistics who play in a vacum.
Arguably the most successful franchise in Professional Sports was the San Franisco Forty Niners under Eddie Debartolo who lavished salary, fringies, gifts, parties, women and whatever to ensure that the Niners were winners.
The Forty Niners overpaid for every fucking thing.
They also won every fucking thing.
by E Ticket on Feb 24, 2007 12:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
In re Durham, I'll offer a roto-leaguer-mentality argument: It's not an overpayment. The Durham deal is on a lot of stathead lists of the best free-agent deals of the year. BP projects Durham at around 32 runs above replacement level for the next two years; for $7 million, that's a pretty sweet deal.
And how exactly do you know there were no other bidders? We need to be very wary of believing that we know what's going on in all these negotiations just because we read Ken Rosenthal's column or whatever.
by Evan on Feb 24, 2007 2:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Durham was Sabean's Best Signing
In 2006, he learned how to stay healthy. What's more, he transitioned into a clutch, powerhitting RBI guy, and he followed Bonds in the order -- one of the pressure spots in all of baseball.
He was an offensive threat, and opponents came to know it.
I went from hating the guy to loving him last year, and I could not believe he was available to Sabean after the first batch of high profile free agents was swept off the table.
Interest or none in Ray, we got lucky.
by Moggeee on Feb 24, 2007 8:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

by 


















