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Community Projection: Ray Durham

Difference between baseball players and basketball players: I understand that Ray Durham is short relative to his peers, but not freakishly so. Still, I saw him outside Mays Field once, and I was about the same height. I didn't expect that. Contrast that with Lil' Monta Ellis, who darts in and out of NBA traffic because he's so wee and quick. I walked past Ellis recently, and the guy was mammoth. Huge. Your perspective gets warped watching this stuff on television.

Basketball players are taller than baseball players. How much longer can I avoid charging for this stuff?

If anything opens a community projection better than a pointless anecdote, I'd like to read it. I was optimistic about Durham last year, but I still underestimated him. I'd love to underestimate him again. The power can't last, though. Players can develop some late-career power, sure, but that's much more an exception than a rule. Durham had the best non-Barry power season from any left-handed hitter in the history of Mays Field, and expecting that to continue is silly. The Giants didn't sign him thinking he'd do it again, but, hey, they'd take it.

Ray Durham

AB: 489
AVG: .278
OBP: .363
SLG: .481
HR: 18

Number of times someone refers to his defense as if he were a legless Steve Sax: 1240

Number of times he deserves it: Five? Six? Seriously, he isn't that bad. He has reverse Jeff Kent range - not bad to his left, a little dicey up the middle - but he turns a fine double play. I'd rate him as slightly below average.

He'll still have some power, but he ain't a five-hitter. He's still a very nice player to have, and has been the least of the Giants' worries for the past four years. He's the least of their worries now; it isn't his fault the Giants don't have any other power threats.

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Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
The power's bound to drop, but I think the OBP can come up.

AB: 410
AVG: .299
OBP: .376
SLG: .477
HR: 13

by Evan on Feb 23, 2007 11:34 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Certainly Ray's OBP CAN come up, but .376 would be the highest of his career.

by sharksrog on Feb 23, 2007 4:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
I'm really going out on a limb here compared to the other predictions so far.

AB: 502
AVG: .287
OBP: .377
SLG: .461
HR: 21

I've grown up a lot since before dinner, when we last talked.

by groug on Feb 23, 2007 11:38 AM PST reply actions  

My stunning 180
I'm a Durham convert, because I think he has AT LAST learned to take care of his musclebound legs during the season. He is now a good bet to stay relatively healthy, rather than a favorite for the DL.

AB: 540
AVG: .292
OBP: .366
SLG: .495
HR: 27
RBI: 105

by Moggeee on Feb 23, 2007 11:41 AM PST reply actions  

Re: My stunning 180
I agree with this comment about Durham's learning how to take care of his legs - and I think it is an astute observation.  I also think his power will drop, but not precipitously.  Because of his BA and his clutch hitting, I don't think he's particularly out of place as a 5 hitter.  Not the proto type, true, but effective.

AB:   510
BA:   290
HR:    19

by allfrank on Feb 23, 2007 11:45 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: My stunning 180
Where's this stuff about Durham's legs coming from? I haven't been paying attention. He's got a new training regimen or something?

by Evan on Feb 23, 2007 12:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: My stunning 180
I remember reading something in the Contra Costa Times about how Durham worked really hard with Stan Conte to develop a program to keep his legs healthy. I can't find the story now, but it is referenced here:

http://www.baseball-fever.com/archive/index.php/t-24351.html

How healthy his legs will be now that Conte is with the Dodgers is open to question.

by da5id on Feb 23, 2007 1:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: My stunning 180
yes, he stopped hitting leadoff.
We'd be pretty good if we didn't suck so bad.

by nostocksjustbonds on Feb 23, 2007 1:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: My stunning 180
He actually picked up Steve Sax's legs at a rummage sale.

by zenbitz on Feb 23, 2007 2:01 PM PST up reply actions  

No interest
Sax' arm is still in the church parking lot.

by Moggeee on Feb 23, 2007 2:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Sax' arm is still in the church parking lot.
And is claiming to be the father of Anna Nicole Smith's baby.
Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Feb 23, 2007 4:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sax' arm is still in the church parking lot.
No way Sax's arm is the father; it couldn't complete the throw.
Two hands for beginners, and Jose Cruz Jr. in the playoffs

by VidaWantsYourCar on Feb 23, 2007 8:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Why Ray will Shine this year
There may be no such thing as a prototype No. 5 hitter. So I agree that Durham is well-placed in that spot for the Giants.

His power and productivity increased as 2006 proceeded. This bodes well that Ray will carry his home run and RBI momentum into 2007.

(Also, the Big Guy hitting in front of Durham seems poised to be healthier this year, and that rising tide elevates all the ships in the immediate vicinity.)

by Moggeee on Feb 23, 2007 2:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Man Overboard!
hopefully Blowmeatizzzzzz. And someone will throw him a cement life perserver.
Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Feb 23, 2007 4:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: My stunning 180
I was never DOWN on Ray.  I think that prior to joining the Giants he had never HAD to worry about his legs, being a comparative iron man with the White Sox and A's.  But likely age and a lack of effective stretching caught up to him after he joined the Giants.

That Ray and the Giants training staff have made adjustments is illustrated by his having played in 279 games the past two seasons compared to just 230 his first two years with the club.

That said, I doubt Ray will have as good a season as you predict, primarily because his SLG would be higher than any he had prior to last season and his 27 homers would not only be a career high, but seven more than he had ever hit in a season prior to 2006.

by sharksrog on Feb 23, 2007 4:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Ray Durham:
BP sees 520 PAs with .373/.500/.873 OBP/SLG/OPS
Rainman sees 600 PAs with .362/.523/.885 OBP/SLG/OPS

BP further sees .304 AVG and 17 HRs
Rainman further sees 532 ABs with .289 AVG and 27 HRs

Ray now knows how to keep his legs healthy and he has completed the conversion from a top of the order hitter to a middle of the order hitter.  Ray will play more in 2007 then 2006 and at the same level.

by giantsrainman on Feb 23, 2007 12:06 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Also, if you notice, Ray runs differently now, in a way that looks like he is 'saving' his hamstrings.

by allfrank on Feb 23, 2007 2:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Any time Ray turns it on trying to go for an extra base or move from 1st to 3rd I can feel my hammys tighten up.

by xanthan on Feb 23, 2007 3:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Skateboards are allowed for certain players who waive arbitration.
Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Feb 23, 2007 4:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Durham completes 1 season of his 13 year career in a relatively healthy mode and, all of a sudden at the age of 35, he's figured out how to keep himself healthy?  I don't think so. It's more likely than not that 2006 will prove to be a fluke and Durham will return to his multiple visits to the DL.
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???

by oldrips on Feb 23, 2007 12:10 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
One season of 13? Check the stats -- Durham spent the first eight years of his career staying remarkably healthy. It's only since he came to the Giants that he started getting hurt all the time. Over the last three years he's been holding steady at 550 plate appearances per year, which ain't bad, particularly since we have a good backup for once.

by Evan on Feb 23, 2007 12:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Whose the backup?  Richie? If you're referring to Kevin, I "hope" we have a good backup. Really. I really like him in a rooting-for-the-underdog kind of way. But man, I was just unimpressed with him physically last season.

I hope its my bad eyesight and old age and bad attitude that makes me write this.  Actually its a reverse jinx thingie. The more I despair, the better he will perform.  That seemed to work for Matt Cain on Open Gameday Threads for a couple of the regulars.

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Feb 23, 2007 5:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
You are right, E, he was gruesome with the big club last year.  The reason there may be hope is that he performed so well once he was sent down to Fresno - and in the AFL.  But, just to show I can throw a wet blanket on optimism, too, I think he's looked awfully awkward in the couple of photos I've seen of him taking ground balls in ST.

by allfrank on Feb 23, 2007 11:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
I haven't looked it up to check, but I believe Durham was healthy and never went to the DL before coming to the Giants.
My VORP is higher than your VORP.

by Poe on Feb 23, 2007 12:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
if you look at his health problems they were all leg issues, hamstring, groin, etc.  since he has stopped stealing bases his health hasn't been that big of an issue.  and he won't have to steal bases hitting in the five hole.  i mean who would he be setting the table for, pedro?  linden? all kidding aside, when he is healthy he produces.  besides, we got a bargain for him considering what else was out there.
A modern day warrior, mean mean stride, Today's Tom Sawyer, mean mean pride

by Cynema the Band on Feb 23, 2007 12:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Actually, in front of Fleas the best strategy is to clear the table. I look for Durham to attempt lots of steals of 2nd, 3rd, and home this season. The tricky thing will be to steal all 3 before Pedro strikes out.
You're nobody 'til everybody in
this town thinks you're a bastard - Elvis Costello

by EliminateMe on Feb 23, 2007 3:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
good point...maybe we can move the pitcher to the 8 spot.  like larussa did.  
A modern day warrior, mean mean stride, Today's Tom Sawyer, mean mean pride

by Cynema the Band on Feb 23, 2007 3:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
as long as he doesnt hit into a double play im cool

by Azmanz on Feb 23, 2007 3:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
what planet are you from?  you give him way too much credit for even getting the bat on the ball let alone put it in play
A modern day warrior, mean mean stride, Today's Tom Sawyer, mean mean pride

by Cynema the Band on Feb 23, 2007 3:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Saying that Ray Durham completes one season out of 13 career years healthy is completely unfair to Ray.  In actuality, Ray had seven straight seasons prior to joining the Giants in which he played more games than in any of his four with the Giants.

by sharksrog on Feb 23, 2007 4:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Baseball players spit more than basketball players.
With Barry back, what could go wrong?

by Rusty the Mechanical Man on Feb 23, 2007 12:11 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
The secret to Durham's revival last year? He finally figured out what the "G" in "G-string" stood for.

This year? Eh, who knows. Just a random guess.
AB: 460
AVG: .284
OBP: .359
SLG: .475
HR: 16

by Kitspool on Feb 23, 2007 12:32 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
AB: 483
AVG: .289
OBP: .358
SLG: .498
HR: 20

Not a bad little ballplayer, our Ray.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Feb 23, 2007 12:42 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
I fully expect a solid, yet unspectacular season from Ray-Ray.

AB: 514
AVG: .296
OBP: .371
SLG: .495
HR: 20
DL-trips: 0
Times Ray misses 3-4 games with a hammy issue: 3

Can't say I agree that Ray has learned how to take care of his legs.  I think the Giants have figured out that it's better to give him a couple games off here and there than have him out for a month.

Vote for Pedro...to be DFA'd!

by W8ingForATitle on Feb 23, 2007 12:45 PM PST reply actions  

the bull
AB=489
AVG=.289
OBP=.360
SLG=.484
HR=19

basically, what Grant said.

check, check/i be tha numba one stunna/punk ya don't want nunna/this matt hurricaine gonna/um.../uh.../strike you out

by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Feb 23, 2007 12:53 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
I am reposting my prediction from last year.

Optimist here.  I think Ray is poised for a big year.

AB    520
Avg. .287
OBP. .362
SLG. .450
HR    20

Second basemen in their contract year?  Think Robbie Thompson and Jeff Kent.  I predict a similarly solid year for Durham.

I think he can do what I projected for last year.  I would be pleased if he did it.

by out machine on Feb 23, 2007 3:23 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
This isn't a contract year for Ray.  2006 was and at this point 2008 would be.

by sharksrog on Feb 23, 2007 4:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
i think the stuff about "contract year" was from his post last year, predicting durham's stats.  Ironically, Durham exceeded those marks by a whole lot last year, and this spring the contract year prediction is one of the more modest ones on the thread...
check, check/i be tha numba one stunna/punk ya don't want nunna/this matt hurricaine gonna/um.../uh.../strike you out

by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Feb 24, 2007 6:12 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
AB's: 504
Hits: 144
AVG: .286
OBP: .355
SLG: .488
HR's: 21
SB's: 8
CS: 2
http://giantsoffseason.blogspot.com

by NeifiChicken on Feb 23, 2007 3:52 PM PST reply actions  

If Ray tries to steal a base...
I will personally run on the field and tackle him.

by Moggeee on Feb 23, 2007 8:44 PM PST up reply actions  

The Great Carnack Projection:
ABS:  650
HITS: 234
AVG: .360
OBP: .401
SLG: .533
OPS: .934
HRS:   75
SBS:  117
CS:   117
Height 6-11

Ray breaks Barry's HR record for Single Season

Ray also breaks Rickey Hendersons record for SB in a single season.

Ray also sets the record for Caught Stealings

As you can tell, Ray Ray will attempt to steal everytime he reaches base; including the 75 times he homers, by stealing 1b after he crosses homeplate.  

He also breaks record for Human Growth Hormone Ingestion by growing 15 inches in the offseason.

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Feb 23, 2007 5:18 PM PST reply actions  

Playing it safe, I see
Much more conservative estimates than last year...

by Moggeee on Feb 23, 2007 8:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
I have trouble concentrating long enough to make these kinds of predictions but regarding basketball players, Grant, I have to tell you I once saw Jabbar and Magic Johnson coming out of a restaurant in Greenwich Village when the Lakers were in New York and Johnson looked small next to Jabbar. Jabbar had to bend over to get out from under the restaurant awning. I was just ten feet or so away -- it was a stunning sight.

by NearestNorwich on Feb 23, 2007 5:19 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
I once saw Manute Bol leaving Boston Garden when he was still in College. 7"7", 190 lbs.

His legs looked absolutely stork-like. It was sad.

by JKGiants on Feb 23, 2007 6:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Manute was 7-foot-7, but his torso was very small in comparision to his limbs.  I always felt his 7-foot-7 was made up of the torso of a 6-foot-6 man coupled with the legs of an 8-foot-8 man.

Sadly 'Nute has had to bear far more than such a nice guy should have to bear.

by sharksrog on Feb 24, 2007 1:00 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Crazy thing is Durham's Baseball Reference comps through Age 34 include four Hall of Famers, one gauranteed HOFer, and two of the best players who aren't in the hall, Trammell and Whittaker.

401 At bats
.271/.351/.421
17 HR

Saving countless runs with my defense

by lyricalkiller on Feb 23, 2007 5:49 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
He'll never be a hall of famer, but Ray's definitely among the top second basemen of our time. His career EQA is .271 and climbing. Some near-contemporaries:

Kent .293
Biggio .287
Alomar .285
Vidro .279
Knoblauch .275
Loretta .269
Bret Boone .264

Am I forgetting anyone? Ray's obviously a better long-term player than Vidro or Knoblauch. A few older guys:

Larkin .290
Sandberg .285
Whitaker .281
Randolph .275
Trammell .273

So Jeff Kent is better than Ryne Sandberg . . . any objections? And why is Alan Trammell supposed to be a hall of famer again?  

by Evan on Feb 24, 2007 7:44 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
You left off Joe Morgan who according to Baseball Reference, Durham most resembled for 3 consecutive years.
Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Feb 24, 2007 8:27 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
If he stays healthy for 140 games:

AB: 530
AVG: .305
OBP: .389
SLG: .490
HR: 24
RBI: 100 (Hitting behind a better Bonds)
R: 85
SB: 7

http://giantsbaseballblog.blogspot.com/

http://giantsbaseballblog.blogspot.com/

by trecole696 on Feb 23, 2007 7:45 PM PST reply actions  

Trecole joins me
as charter members of the Ray-Ray 20-100 Club.

by Moggeee on Feb 24, 2007 8:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
AB: 398
AVG: .271
OBP: .365
SLG: .427
HR: 13

Ray Ray: I see minor injuries, a power decline,
but good plate discipline (OBP).

I'm rooting for Kevin Frandsen, but
I think he's a .240-hitting scrappy
back-up second baseman. Nothing more.
I still like him on the team to back-up Durham.

by Kid Fresh on Feb 24, 2007 7:12 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
I think Frandsen will be a very good secondbaseman for us, Kid. I would have preferred we not sign Durham, but that's millions of dollars under the bridge now. For Durham I'll predict:

AB: 469
AVG: .278
OBP: .351
SLG: .469
HR: 17

I think he'll spend some time on the DL. He's a nice guy by all accounts, and I certainly understand why the team resigned him when other free agents didn't sign with us. But I'm ready to move on at 2B.

Avoid the rush later - join the Waiting for Josh Vitters bandwagon now!

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Feb 24, 2007 8:43 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
We all hope Frandsen is the 2b of the future.  But this signing by Sabean is very astute.  1)  It fills the 5 hole in the order, 2) keeps continuity (potentially) on the infield, especially the DP combo, 3) is certainly a reasonable price for the production, 4) and most importantly, doesn't saddle us with some unknown, a la L Niekro.  Frandsen should get plenty of ABs 300-350, play a fair amount at 2b, 3b and some at SS.  He is given ample opportuinity to show if he can produce at the major league level, without dragging the team down (a la Niekro, Feliz) if he doesn't.  I think many, many good teams utilize this method, break a rookie in with, basically, half time play, see if he can cut it.  If he can, extend his playing time the next year.  Frandsen even has the legit chance to beat out Feliz.  It is there waiting for him.  

by allfrank on Feb 24, 2007 10:44 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
You realize, of course, that there were no other bidders for Durham's services? A reasonable price? I would call it overpaying for someone they could've gotten cheaper.
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???

by oldrips on Feb 24, 2007 11:07 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Why is it overpaying?  Seriously. Do you actually have professionls who work for you? Would you actually make it a company policy to pay the least amount you can get away with?  Do you really think that breeds a winning attitude?  An attitude of I'm busting my ass on defense even if it hurts? An attitude that this is the best place in the whole world to ply my not insignificant skills?  You want a roster made up of the lowest bidder, I suggest you lobby Bud Selig to award a MLB franchise to the Federal Government

I apologize for taking this out on you, but I am fucking sick and tired of people parroting roto-leaguer mentality as if baseball players were actually nothing more than a collection of semi-related statistics who play in a vacum.

Arguably the most successful franchise in Professional Sports was the San Franisco Forty Niners under Eddie Debartolo who lavished salary, fringies, gifts, parties, women and whatever to ensure that the Niners were winners.

The Forty Niners overpaid for every fucking thing.
They also won every fucking thing.

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Feb 24, 2007 12:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Community Projection: Ray Durham
Your point is well taken, and I'll admit that lots us, me included, lose sight of it sometimes. But it's not that I give a shit what Magowan's bottom line looks like; it's that bad contracts make it harder for the Giants to put the best team possible on the field. Magowan's only willing to spend a certain amount on the team, which pisses me off, but given that fact of life, committing ten percent of the team's budget to Zito or giving Feliz anything over the minimum or signing Winn on the heels of a career year etc etc drives me crazy.

In re Durham, I'll offer a roto-leaguer-mentality argument: It's not an overpayment. The Durham deal is on a lot of stathead lists of the best free-agent deals of the year. BP projects Durham at around 32 runs above replacement level for the next two years; for $7 million, that's a pretty sweet deal.

And how exactly do you know there were no other bidders? We need to be very wary of believing that we know what's going on in all these negotiations just because we read Ken Rosenthal's column or whatever.

by Evan on Feb 24, 2007 2:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Durham was Sabean's Best Signing
I can't believe there was not modest -- if not intense -- interest in Durham this offseason.

In 2006, he learned how to stay healthy. What's more, he transitioned into a clutch, powerhitting RBI guy, and he followed Bonds in the order -- one of the pressure spots in all of baseball.

He was an offensive threat, and opponents came to know it.

I went from hating the guy to loving him last year, and I could not believe he was available to Sabean after the first batch of high profile free agents was swept off the table.

Interest or none in Ray, we got lucky.

by Moggeee on Feb 24, 2007 8:31 PM PST up reply actions  

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