What *IS* The Game Plan?
by Lincecum Cain Then Pray For Rain on Dec 30, 2007 11:37 PM PST
43 comments
Each year I keep hearing people getting all excited about the big Giants' contracts that are going to come off the books each year and how much money that will free up.
"Just wait until the end of <insert year> when the contracts for <insert players 1-5> are no longer on the books. Then we'll have a boatload of money to spend on top tier free agents."
Last year, it was Bonds, Morris, Benitez, Feliz, and Klesko, who made approximately $42 million combined (obviously, not all of that was paid by the Giants last year). What did it get us? So far, we've netted Aaron Rowand and pay increases for the rest of the team.
The year before, it was Bonds (again), Schmidt, Alou, Finley, and Feliz (again) freeing up almost $49 million. And for that relief, we locked up Barry Zito after failing to land Soriano and added another year of Bonds (whose $15M salary doesn't looks so bad, baggage nothwithstanding).
In 2008, the following player contracts will expire:
Durham ($7M)
Vizquel ($5.3M, unless he plays in 140 games in which case his 2009 salary vests)
Feliz (let's not kid ourselves, it's inevitable that the Giants resign him for another $5M in 2008)
Kline ($3.5)
Aurilia ($3.5M)
So that's approximately $25 million, not to mention the salaries of Roberts ($6.5M) and Winn ($8.25M) the Giants somehow are hoping to rid themselves of in 2008.
(Note: salary data was gathered from ESPN, mlb4u.com and baseball-almanac.com, so it may not be 100% accurate.)
So let's assume that the Giants somehow convince another team to take Roberts and Winn off their hands (which I pray doesn't include something insane line packing either player with Cain and/or Lincecum). That's about $40 million to spend on shiny new free agents in 2009, right? All we have to do is hold tight in 2008 -- the Giants will sort out which youngsters can contribute, the graybeards will be gone and we'll sign the best available free agents. With a little bit of luck, we'll be back to 85-90 wins in 2009, right?
It's a nice plan until you realize that next year's FA class is just as thin as this one was. The below list (courtesy of mlbtraderumors.com) obviously will get shorter as teams and players exercise options and teams lock up players to multi-year extensions. For example, there's no chance that -- absent horrific injury -- Vlad will not have his $15M option (which is really a net $12M option when you factor in the $3M buyout) picked up by the Angels. So in either case, he won't be available for the Giants. Same with Thome, Crawford, and Renteria.
Please note that I have focused on the hitters mostly because (a) the Giants already have a very good SP staff with some decent arms in the minors, (b) they already made a big free agent SP splash last year and we see where that got them, and (c) their hitting sucks. But for anyone interested, the best FA pitchers that will likely be on the market include Santana, Sabathia, Joe Nathan, Francisco Rodriguez, Pedro Martinez, Ben Sheets and Rafael Soriano. It's not a bad FA pitching class.
The list of FA hitters, though, looks much weaker. In reviewing the list, it looks like Teixeira, Dunn and some decent shortstops. In looking at the list, there doesn't seem like a lot of hope on the horizon. Are there really a lot of names on that list that people are eager to sign? Hell, Bonds looks like the best FA hitter in 2009.
So absent the meteoric rise of some unknown hitting phenoms, I'm not sure if there's a way that the Giants can avoid trading one of their quality arms in exchange for some good, young, cheap hitting. And no, I don't mean Lincecum for Rios. Call me crazy, but I don't see anything worth spending $40 million on there folks.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Catchers
Michael Barrett (32)
Johnny Estrada (33)
Kenji Johjima (33)
Jason Kendall (35) - club option for '09 (110 games)
Paul Lo Duca (37)
Ivan Rodriguez (37)
David Ross (32)
Jason Varitek (37)
Gregg Zaun (38) - $3.75M vesting option for '09 (160 games)
First basemen
Ben Broussard (32)
Carlos Delgado (37) - $16M mutual option for '09 with a $4M buyout
Nomar Garciaparra (35)
Jason Giambi (38) - $22M club option for '09 with a $5M buyout
Scott Hatteberg (39)
Kevin Millar (37)
Richie Sexson (34)
Mark Teixeira (29)
Jim Thome (38) - $13M club option for '09 with $3M buyout
Second basemen
Mark Ellis (32)
Mark Grudzielanek (39)
Orlando Hudson (31)
Tadahito Iguchi (34)
Jeff Kent (41)
Felipe Lopez (29)
Mark Loretta (37)
Jose Vidro (34) - vesting option for '09
Shortstops
Orlando Cabrera (34)
David Eckstein (34)
Adam Everett (32)
Rafael Furcal (31)
Cristian Guzman (31)
Cesar Izturis (29)
Felipe Lopez (29)
Edgar Renteria (33) - $11M club option for '09 with a $3M buyout
Juan Uribe (30)
Omar Vizquel (42) - $5.2M club option for '09 with a $0.3M buyout
Third basemen
Casey Blake (35)
Hank Blalock (28) - $6.2M club option for '09 with a $0.25M buyout
Joe Crede (31)
Nomar Garciaparra (35)
Troy Glaus (32) - $11.25M player option for '09
Wes Helms (33) - $3.75M club option for '09
Chipper Jones (37) - $8-11M vesting option for '09
Left fielders
Moises Alou (42)
Garret Anderson (37) - $14M club option for '09 with a $3M buyout
Milton Bradley (31)
Pat Burrell (32)
Carl Crawford (27) - $8.25M club option for '09 with $2.5M buyout
Adam Dunn (29)
Cliff Floyd (36) - $3M club option for '09 with a $0.25M buyout
Raul Ibanez (37)
Jacque Jones (34)
Jason Michaels (33) - $2.6M club option for '09
Craig Monroe (32)
Jay Payton (36)
Wily Mo Pena (27) - $5M club option or $2M player option for '09
Manny Ramirez (37) - $20M club option for '09
Juan Rivera (30)
Center fielders
Rocco Baldelli (27) - $6M club option for '09 with a $4M buyout
Jim Edmonds (39)
Jacque Jones (34)
Mark Kotsay (33)
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
I also would only be a hurry to get rid of Dave Roberts if one of Schierholtz, Davis, Lewis, or Ortmeier proves he is ready to handle LF fulltime by in 2009 with his production in 2008. I guess their is an outside shot that two of these could show they are ready to start and then it would make sense to trade Randy Winn. But, do you really think this is likely?
by giantsrainman on Dec 31, 2007 12:48 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
This is a weird turn of events
by Moggeee on Dec 31, 2007 12:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by Bhaakon on Dec 31, 2007 1:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by giantsrainman on Dec 31, 2007 1:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
I also doubt that Teixeira alone turns this team into a contender, so I assume that your scenario involves one or more of the Giants hitting prospects turning into above average hitters. Considering that most of the precious few hitting prospects with even a remote chance of doing that are outfielders, Winn is doubly expendable.
by Bhaakon on Dec 31, 2007 3:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Dec 31, 2007 5:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by Bhaakon on Dec 31, 2007 5:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by Woody Wins on Dec 31, 2007 7:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by Bhaakon on Dec 31, 2007 2:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
I'm confused by your second sentence. I am advocating the Giants taking risks. I support flushing dead-weight veterans. The point I was making was that if a team as good as the Red Sox can take a risk on starting young and unproven players, why can't we?
by Woody Wins on Dec 31, 2007 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
The Giants need to take risks on young players because they have no choice. The Red Sox can afford to do it because they're more than good enough to carry a weak link or two. The situations are totally different.
by Bhaakon on Dec 31, 2007 3:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by Woody Wins on Dec 31, 2007 3:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
Not that Pedroia was some phenom, but the Giants haven't had a hitting prospect worth handing a starting job since Aurilia or Mueller.
by Bhaakon on Dec 31, 2007 3:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
Are you actually suggesting that the Giants give young players adequate playing time on this team? Are you just trying to argue with me?
by Woody Wins on Dec 31, 2007 4:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by Bhaakon on Dec 31, 2007 5:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
Pedroia's a very fair comparison to Frandsen. Going into '07, Pedroia had just come off a .305/.384/.426 season in his first full shot at AAA, Frandsen had just come off a .304/.358/.440 in his first full AAA season, as well as a red-hot AFL. If you look at their writeups in last year's Prospect Handbook (Pedroia #7 in the Red Sox system, Frandsen #6 in ours) you'll see extreme similarities int he reports: great contact skills stemming from exceptional hand-eye coordination, smooth hand to glove skills, off the charts makeup and IQ, but limited arm, strength, speed and power.
Nonetheless, as Woody says, the team that was gunning for a championship allowed Mark Loretta to leave so as to open a spot for Pedroia to start, while the team that was in a shambles and publicly stating they needed to get younger and healthier to rebuild a competitive team, resigned Ray Durham to block a starting position that Frandsen could have had.
I'm not sure what you're arguing Bhaakon. Clearly, last winter in comparing Pedroia and Frandsen's situations, the team that had the most to lose by going with a rookie starter at 2B took the risk, and the team that virtually nothing to lose by going with a rookie starter at 2B didn't. And that does say something about what I consider the failure of imagination that is currently plaguing the Giants organization.
by Roger on Jan 1, 2008 8:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by Bhaakon on Jan 1, 2008 3:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by Roger on Jan 1, 2008 7:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by Anticon23 on Dec 31, 2007 9:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
But I have no problem with trading ANY player who is over 28 (I moved my limit down from 30 so it would include Barry Zito for trade.), since it will likely be three or more seasons before the Giants are good again.
by sharksrog on Dec 31, 2007 5:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
I'm also still haunted by Winn's awful 2005 season (.262/.324/.396) and, given his streaky year last year, I'm concerned that there is a very real possibility that he may revert to his 2005 level -- and then his $8.25M salary will no longer be a bargain.
But if Winn produces as we all hope he does, then great. I just don't want Winn's salary to cut into the playing time of Schierholtz, Davis, Lewis, etc.
by Lincecum Cain Then Pray For Rain on Dec 31, 2007 1:19 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
Bottom line, the solution is to find the more offense you desire at the positions whose contracts are expiring first (1B-Aurilia, 2B-Durham, SS-Vizquel, 3B-Feliz) and then trade your weakest bat under contract (LF-Roberts) before you considering trading your second best bat under contract (RF-Winn).
by giantsrainman on Dec 31, 2007 1:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by kingofthacove on Dec 31, 2007 3:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by Bhaakon on Dec 31, 2007 3:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
*Your homerunage may vary
by Lyle on Dec 31, 2007 5:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Trickle-Down Baseball Economics
Eight Million here, Ten Million there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money.
Subsequently, even bleacher seats are in a Runaway Bull Market and by 2010 will cost a Benjamin per, if you're thinking of purchasing a hotdog to amplify your China Basin Experience.
by Moggeee on Dec 31, 2007 1:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Trickle-Down Baseball Economics
by E Ticket on Dec 31, 2007 10:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by sharksrog on Dec 31, 2007 5:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by E Ticket on Dec 31, 2007 9:37 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
For Example:
All goes well with Timmy next year and he becomes everything we hoped for and even pitches 200IP. That makes Cain a little more expendable. So you trade Cain for that young big bat or two and then replace Cain by throwing $100M at the Bay Area's own CC Sabathia. You add your big bat and actually UPGRADE the starting rotation.
You replace an Ace with an Ace and add your big bat. And it only cost you $15-$18M/year instead of $20M+ that Teixera is going to command.
by chefasaurus on Dec 31, 2007 11:16 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
So how's this for thinking outside the box. There continue to be rumors that Tampa is feeling forced to shop Scott Kazmir around because he's rebuffed all attempts at extension talks. This is typical for a Boras client (as Boras likes his clients to determine their worth on the open market) as well as for a star player on a perpetual last place club.
Say we offer Matt Cain + a C level OF prospect (Lewis or Ort, say) to Tampa for Kazmir + Longoria. Tampa gets an extra year of an elite pitcher (Cain is 4 years from FA, Kazmir 3) and a non-Boras client who they might be able to work with for a long-term extension. If they can sign Cain long-term, then it cost them Longoria to lock up an elite pitcher. If they can't they still have an elite trade prospect to move 3 years down the line.
We get a stud young hitter for 6 years at a position of desperate need, without sacrificing our pitching strength to do it. Two years from now if Kazmir still wants to hit the market, then we've got one of the best trade chips in the business at a point where, hopefully, some our pitching depth in the minors (Alderson) is ready to step in and replace him and we have a better idea what we have in our class of '07 hitting prospects and the rebuild takes a major step forward. Everybody wins!
by Roger on Dec 31, 2007 1:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
Part of the problem (as I see it) with moving Lincecum or Cain is that the recent trading record for moving elite youngster is elite prospects. Sabean doesn't want prospects, however, he wants proven talent. And if the Rios rumor are any indication, he may not even be expecting even value.
by Bhaakon on Dec 31, 2007 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by Roger on Jan 1, 2008 7:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
"We're not interested in prospects or people who are a year or two away. They're going to have to show their face and contribute next year."
After seeing the packages and trades and rumors from this offseason for Santana, Haren, Garza and Bedard, I have to think trading Cain will come up again. Especially if he improves on what he did in 2007.
by chefasaurus on Jan 1, 2008 11:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
We need to give these guys a serious chance to prove themselves this year while we are out of a real chance of contention. It seems us giants fans never get a chance to be pleasantly suprised by non-pitching prospects. Perhaps that is due to actual talent level as of late but i like to be optimistic and who knows, frandsen and schierholtz could be all that we hope they can be if given the time.
So i guess my hope of a game plan includes trading winn while he looks good and giving left to Schierholtz, then having Rowand and (i guess) Davis/Roberts. and the INF to have Ort, Franny, vizquel, and McPherson. Only one that might not pan out is Ort and for a year we could just plug in Richie who will at least be not totally embarassing.
by Giant Voodoo on Dec 31, 2007 11:34 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by boonitez on Dec 31, 2007 12:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
His career line away from the Arlington is .243/.301/.398 not too inspiring, IMO.
But I get what you're saying and agree wholeheartedly.
by Anticon23 on Dec 31, 2007 5:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
Why didn't we sign him, he's 26, 13 years younger than that other guy. WHY????
by giants9107 on Dec 31, 2007 1:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by xanthan on Jan 3, 2008 5:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by VidaWantsYourCar on Dec 31, 2007 2:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by Bhaakon on Dec 31, 2007 2:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by Natto on Dec 31, 2007 3:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: What *IS* The Game Plan?
by Dan from NM on Dec 31, 2007 5:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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