Sorry....
Pedro Feliz used to be the amphibious tarantula making a nest in the toilet bowl of the offseason. That is, he was my biggest fear of the offseason. And don't get me wrong, even a one-year deal to Feliz still scares me. It just isn't my biggest fear anymore. I know what I write isn't going to be popular in some circles, but here goes....
Dan Ortmeier starting at first base for the 2008 Giants -- that's my biggest fear right now. His career minor league on-base percentage is .348. His career minor league slugging percentage is .433. Last year in Fresno, he walked only 27 times in 305 at-bats and had 63 strikeouts. That's a 26-year-old in AAA. If he were a minor league shortstop, he should have needed some pretty special defense to warrant a call up with his AAA numbers last year (.262/.333/.430). But the Giants were desperate, and Ortmeier responded with the highest slugging percentage of his professional career.
It's just swell that he did okay in 157 major league at-bats, but it might have been the worst thing to happen to the 2008 Giants. In those 157 at-bats, Ortmeier struck out 41 times and only walked seven times. Those are the numbers of an overmatched and unpolished hitter. But Ortmeier was also able to rope four triples and six home runs in those at-bats, so the slugging percentage looks acceptable. It's all a sample-size mirage.
What Ortmeier has going for him:
- He's under 30
- The Giants don't have any better options
Val Pascucci
Tagg Bozied
Jorge Cantu
Josh Phelps
Chris Nowak
Ryan Mulhern
Craig Brazell
Nate Gold
Lance Niekro
I'd certainly rather have a switch-hitter who can run and play all three outfield positions on my bench than everyone up there but Cantu, so it isn't as if I think Ortmeier's useless. But an organization that can't upgrade over Ortmeier as a starting first baseman after four months of looking is an organization that has failed.
I'd rather have an expensive first baseman with a past history of success, like Richie Sexson.
I'd rather have a cheap first baseman with a past history of minor league success, even one like Lance Niekro.
I'd rather have a sub-.300 OBP guy like Tony Clark...wait, no I wouldn't. Try harder, Sabes! Try harder, dammit!
Young and homegrown are not synonyms for promising. There are two months left in the offseason. The priority of the offseason should have been corner infielders.
I feel like I'm the subject of a "Twilight Zone" episode.
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Re: Sorry....
by The Gene Hackman on Dec 19, 2007 10:27 AM PST reply actions
Re: Sorry....
by Grant Brisbee on Dec 19, 2007 10:29 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Sorry....
The nice thing with Cantu is that he's also versatile, so if need be, we can plug him into 3B on occasion.
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by projectmayhem713 on Dec 20, 2007 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
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That was in August.
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Grant, the coffee is NOT the issue here.
:-)
by The Gene Hackman on Dec 19, 2007 11:09 AM PST up reply actions
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As in Le Fevre for more cow bell.
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 19, 2007 2:33 PM PST up reply actions
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by W8ingForATitle on Dec 19, 2007 11:17 AM PST up reply actions
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Should I blame Lefebvre for the failings of Niekro, as well as Linden?
I don't know if I feel bad for the guy, but I think Lance still has some potential to be a 20+ HR masher. Well maybe against lefties.
Sorry I just started my cup of java.
by SoFa King Mike on Dec 19, 2007 11:17 AM PST reply actions
Re: Sorry....
I've asked the same question on this site before, but nobody's given a satisfactory answer. I'm still hoping someone can, because I just don't get it.
Okay, I've looked up his minor league stats, and his walk totals are the exact opposite of good. But his career minor league OPS is .820. Is that bad at the minor league level? And he's around 28-29 now? I don't know, I guess that's it, but I still don't feel like he ever got a fair shake.
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@ AA Akron Aeros (2007)
BB/PA = 11.3%
K/PA = 10.0% (yes, his K-rate is lower than his BB-rate!)
XBH/AB = 10.1% (Just to put this number in some sort of context, Pujols' XBH/AB is 12.65% and Ryan Howard's is 13.8%)
This guy clearly isn't a slouch. He just doesn't hit for power in a position that demands it.
by Nathan on Dec 19, 2007 11:19 AM PST reply actions
Re: Sorry....
by Nathan on Dec 19, 2007 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Sorry....
It is depressing to think that Sabean would probaly never make a move like that. In spite of the fact that we will not be competitive next year, I can't see the Giants turning over the starting 1b job to a AA player. No matter how promising.
Re: Sorry....
Here's what Goldstein had to say about him:
DOB: 12/18/83
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 4th round, 2005, University of Arizona
2007 Stats: .333/.421/.484 at Double-A (127 G)
Year In Review: The 2006 Carolina League MVP followed that up by improving across the board and earning the same honor in the Eastern League.
The Good: Brown is the definition of the term 'professional hitter.' He works the count exceedingly well while still being aggressive, and he can hit any pitch anywhere in the strike zone, while adding gap power to the mix. He's an average defender at first base.
The Bad: Thick and slow, Brown is limited to first base, where his offensive profile doesn't really match. His level swing and contact-oriented approach is not conducive to much power. At 24, he's not exactly young and filled with untapped potential.
Fun Fact: Brown hit exactly .333 against both lefties and righties in 2007.
Perfect World Projection: The next Lyle Overbay?
Timetable: Because of what he is, Brown will have to prove himself at every level. The upside is that he'll start the year at Triple-A, so the proving process is almost complete.
Re: Sorry....
by Nathan on Dec 19, 2007 12:04 PM PST up reply actions
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What about another 1B from Cleveland: Michael Aubrey?
Maybe the Giants could trade for Marte and Brown/Aubrey?
by Bib12 @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 19, 2007 2:26 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Marte
by NearestNorwich on Dec 19, 2007 6:32 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Marte
I suppose there is the possibility that a change of scenery is needed, but as you indicated, his problems may be deeper than just a change of scenery.
by Bib12 @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 19, 2007 6:41 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Marte
Re: Marte
He's got a lot of upside but he could stall out, I don't think anyone is saying anything different about him.
Re: Marte
Of course, Phillips went to a pretty good place to hit, but he still turned in a pretty nice season his year.
Re: Marte
While opinion isn't universal, most people who follow the Tribe closely are in favor of giving Marte the job with little to no strings attached.
This Indians are one the more risk averse organizations in baseball. They won't sacrifice a sure for high-risk/high-reward quantities. Josh Barfield is big as it gets when it comes to blockbuster trades in the last four years. The free agent signings are equally tame - Dellucci, Nixon, Fultz, etc... This isn't necessarily a bad thing when you do a great job identifying talent. But you also run the risk of demoralizing your ML-ready talent by keeping them in the minors too long. Marte isn't the only case. Here are the other....
- The Indians brought him up in 2003, a rebuilding year, after he'd seen a half season in AAA the year before (2002). A little bit on the early side, but not terrible.
- He tanked in the majors in 2003.
- He gets back on the horse and puts up a (.303/.358/.430) line at AAA in 2004 with a vast improvement in his K/BB ratio.
- Having look to have earned a call up, he gets sent back down to Buffalo and has a worse year, once again.
- He gets traded to Cincinnati amid questions about his 'attitude'
- Turns into a star in CIN
- Rockets through the minors and puts up a (.303/.384/.498) line in a full year at AAA
- Having look to have earned a call up, he gets sent back down to Buffalo and repeats AAA.
- Posts a (.270/.359/.470) line in a two month call up in 2006, but still starts 2007 on the bench. Injuries get him in the lineup and he turns into a solid contributor.
- There were questions about his 'commitment' to defense before the 2007 season.
- Never did anything to merit a call up until 2006 when he finally posted a sub-4.00 ERA (3.15 to be exact) in AAA with a 1.23 WHIP.
- In his call up in 2006, when the Indians were comfortably out of the race, he only pitched 19 innings in two months in the majors.
- Having been groomed as a starter, he got only ONE start in the majors in a Cleveland uniform.
- Given a starting job in Baltimore in 2007, he finally has a fine season in the majors.
- Never accused of having any attitude problem.
- Same old shit, different player. How did Marte's 2005 in AAA not earn him a shot at the starting job in 2006? The Braves AAA team is also in the IL, like the Indians'.
- Like Garko, he experiences a decline when forced to repeat AAA for no good reason.
- Flashes a mean glove and some power in his two month call up late in 2006.
- Presumably earned the starting job in 2007 with no strings attached. Loses the job after a horrid April, which ended in injury. Never regained the job.
- Now has 'attitude' questions marks.
Cleveland destroys a few good prospects every year by holding them back in the minors way too long. Ben Francisco, Andy Marte and Kelly Shoppach deserve chances to start elsewhere. Look at their minor league numbers. Look at what ages they 'graduated' AAA. The ML-ready players riding the bench because their FO and manager are risk averse fools.
by Nathan on Dec 19, 2007 10:06 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Marte
I would just love to see Marte have a Brandon Phillips-like comeback. Plus, it would not hurt to have Jordan Brown putting up Lyle Overbay numbers.
by Bib12 @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 20, 2007 9:23 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Marte
Brown and Shoppach are players who would have more value to almost any other team in baseball and could be had at a bargain price. Both are blocked by solid big league players (Martinez, Garko) who are more than three years away from free agency. Its possible a high-upside quantity like Sanchez could over both those guys and more.
by Nathan on Dec 20, 2007 10:01 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Marte
Sign me up please. Players like Marte, Shoppach & Brown are good players for us to be looking at, but i'm pretty skeptical about Sabean having much interest in them!
Re: Sorry....
Really, I'd like to see what Nick Johnson would cost. Its Bowden, so its probably ridiculous, but it is worth asking.
Other would be types who haven't gotten a shot:
- Justin Huber, still young, but apparently ran over Dayton Moore's dog. Unclear why he hasn't been given a go.
- Chris Carter (the Boston one) - decent prospect, no real place in Boston. the idea of Epstein trading with Sabean gives me the shivers
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Endless
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 19, 2007 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Endless
by Big Daddy J on Dec 19, 2007 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Sorry....
I think his upside at this point is 'walking without crutches.'
by GiantFanInExile on Dec 19, 2007 12:44 PM PST up reply actions
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I wouldn't go as far as Jonathan Sanchez, but Henessey and Misch for a healthy Johnson I can live with.
Another 1B flying under the radar is Hee Sop Choi, okay, I'm just joking there, but hey, Niekro was brought up in this thread.
How about Scotty Thorman?
Re: Scott Thorman
Re: Sorry....
by projectmayhem713 on Dec 20, 2007 11:50 AM PST up reply actions
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by Bib12 @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 19, 2007 2:29 PM PST up reply actions
1st and 3rd
I'm giving him until the end of the off-season. I gave him the benefit of the doubt because he was saying all of the right things. I gave him the benefit of the doubt because...well, because I was hopeful, mostly. So unless there is some grand plan here, unless Sabean is showing extreme patience, I am off the Sabean-hopemobile. I am joining E in the pit of despair, hopelessness and cynicism (also known as Giants 1st base).
He'd better impress me before the end of the day. Or else the next tires he should be kicking are those of a hearse (figuratively speaking, of course).
Anyways, I know that was random and all, but being reminded that right now our firstmen are Dan Ortmeier and Rich Aurilia made something snap. You know things are bad when you make the eternal optimist snap...
Niekro
Re: Niekro
by someguynamedg on Dec 19, 2007 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
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by E Ticket on Dec 20, 2007 9:30 AM PST up reply actions
I can't explain it...
But I'd kinda like to see him start at first. The only way I'd be more pleased is if I heard they started to teach Nate to play 1b.
I'm perfectly willing to admit this is one of the "but I just like that guy" moments, but I don't often blindly do that, so...yeah, I'd really like to see Dan at 1b.
Flame on :(
Re: I can't explain it...
Re: I can't explain it...
If he ends up looking like Ray Charles at the plate -- ditch him and play Aurilia. Then someone can start an OT Dennis Green diary: "Ort was who we thought he was". And you guys get the last laugh.
There clearly isn't enough sample size to say for sure what he is or isn't capable of. All I know is that I've always thought he had a pretty sweet swing and he seems athletic. That's not enough to crown him the 1B of the future, but I feel like it earns him a shot (not on a good team of course, but on the '08 Giants, sure).
You put how I feel much better
But, yeah, we're not gonna be great. Why sign someone expensive/old and not great, or play someone old/not great (richie) over a guy that at least has a chance to be a contributer.
by Andy from DC on Dec 19, 2007 1:49 PM PST up reply actions
Re: You put how I feel much better
I mean, Ortmeier was about the eighth-best hitter on his triple-A team last year. That's just counting the regulars; a bunch of the bench players were better too. Why is he the one who deserves to be a major-league first baseman?
Re: You put how I feel much better
I think he's a deserving in-house option.
Re: You put how I feel much better
That's the the thing; he never set the world on fire. He hit .304/.365/.471 as a 22-year-old in the California League, which probably wasn't way above the Cal League average in 2003. He hit .274/ .360/.463 in the 2005 Eastern League, which is more impressive, but when those two seasons are the highlight of a professional career, it makes none sense to hope he can ever be better than the 30th-best starting 1B in baseball.
by Grant Brisbee on Dec 19, 2007 4:26 PM PST up reply actions
Re: You put how I feel much better
by NearestNorwich on Dec 19, 2007 6:40 PM PST up reply actions
Re: You put how I feel much better
Re: I can't explain it...
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Dec 20, 2007 9:46 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Sorry....
I agree (duh). If and that is a Giant "IF" Ortmeier has turned some sort of batting corner, then he can start at AAA at 1B and knock the cover off the ball.
I would literally rather have Aurilla start at 1B, since well, we already have him.
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I say let him bat 4th.
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Clark is Another Giant Step in the Wrong Direction
by They Might Be Midgets on Dec 19, 2007 3:57 PM PST reply actions
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I believe in minor league success giving an idea of potential, but I also believe that if you have nothing to lose (except 100 games), there's a chance to find a guy who no one expected to succeed. Alex Rios' career minor league averages were .293/.333/.401. So he hite for better average but was even more suck than Ort.
I'm not worried about Ortmeier starting at 1B. I'm worried about Sabean giving some old loser a two year contract.
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Age ort OPS rios OPS
21 A- 778 A+ 752
22 A+ 849 AA 923
23 AA 776 MLB 721
24 AA 823 MLB 703
25 AAA 682 MLB 865
26 MLB 814 MLB 852
Rios pastes AA in the pitcher's Eastern League at age 22, reaching the 900 OPS mark that Ortmeier doesn't match even after his second tour of the same league while two years older.
Rios has two straight good years unbder his belt now. Ortmeier's only good year was in high A, in the hitter's California League, a half-decade ago.
I'd really like to see him succeed, but counting on it is a mistake. He's a long shot.
Re: Sorry....
With a team that is destined for last place no matter what, it's worth giving Ort one year to see if he can duplicate over 400 PAs. There is absolutely nothing to lose. This team is going to lose 90 games with Ort, Aurilia, Clark or Casey or just about anyone short of Pujols and Fielder at first (and even then, it's still not a playoff team). That .08% chance of Ort succeeding is worth more than the talent to acquire a reclamation project or the money to sign another stop-gap veteran.
Now if an opportunity to acquire a legit 1B of the future came along, I'd forget all about the Big German. But replacing him with Clark or whoever is just a move for the sake of making a move.
Re: Sorry....
Rios may not have been a top prospect before that age-22 breakthrough, but he was after. Sure, he could have stalled out, but would have been underperformance.
Ortmeier has had a few nice stretches, but even in a system as thin as the Giants for bats, he's never cracked a top-ten-prospects list. Comparing him to Rios is a bigger stretch than the hopes he can be a productive major-leaguer.
Nate Gold
Re: Nate Gold
by Grant Brisbee on Dec 19, 2007 5:29 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Nate Gold
Ultimately though...
Why not just plop him down there for a season and see what happens? If he's so bad that he needs to be benched...bench him.
We need to rebuild and we need to see what we have when given a proper opportunity to play everyday.
I'm still going to go to games and I'll actually be MORE excited to see unproven talent on the field than tired old vets stealing the playing time of youth.
Chad
Look at the sweet swing.
http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=455025
Re: Sorry....
.272/.328/.456 Cantu in Cin
.284/.361/.496 Phelps in Pit
.272/.370/.394 Hatteberg in Cin
.258/.366/.452 Johnson in Oak
.242/.314/.479 Clark in Ari
.247/.294/.496 McPherson in LA
.253/.305/.403 Ort in SF
.246/.339/.479 Sexson in Sea
.240/.345/.451 Wilkerson in Tex
Re: Sorry....
Sure, i'd rather someone better & hope we can make a trade & acquire someone with more chance of being a competent 1B, but i'd much rather Ortmeier play than some of the other options such as Clark or Niekro (I'd rather have a guy play who's probably going to fail, than one who has already failed).
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But then that brings us back to veterans never seem to be able to play themselves out of playing time. I would be a lot happier about the up coming couple seasons if it appeared merit had a bigger role in divvying playing time while accumulated, dust encrusted, laurels were removed from their current trump card status.
The answer is obvious
- He'll be 24 next year.
- He hit .304 in the bigs last year.
- He owns a Minor League line of 308/352/508.
- He will make major league minimum for the next 3 seasons.
- He's currently on a team with 3 much better defensive outfielders.
- He's already a Giant.
by orangeandblackattack on Dec 20, 2007 9:29 AM PST reply actions
Re: The answer is obvious
by daveinexile on Dec 20, 2007 10:38 AM PST up reply actions
Re: The answer is obvious
1B is where you stash the gimpy, immobile and otherwise defense-impaired. Sure, it's nice when you have a 3B-capable glove like Pujols's out there, but it's not the end of the world if you don't.
Waste is relative
by orangeandblackattack on Dec 20, 2007 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Waste is relative
He needs to play every day, for his defense as well as his bat. At 1B, his defense atrophies, and without defense he's not a very interesting player.
Re: The answer is obvious
Only if that player is a masher. 1b defense is under-rated. A good defensive firstbaseman raises the level of defense for the entire infield. There is a reason that the Giants were a good defensive team when JT played 1st. JT's ability to dig throws out of the dirt turned many potential errors into outs.
Re: The answer is obvious
I think there is a good chance the Giants will trade either Randy Winn or Dave Roberts, however, giving Nate a deserved shot at starting in the outfield.
At a corner outfield position, he shouldn't hit much below a league-average level for the position and might eventually grow into being average or even above-average (with the latter being far more likely IMO if he waits for more pitches he can drive).
Re: The bat for 1B
If a guy can hit, he should get a chance to play. Especially with the Giants as current constructed. Not saying Nate should play 1B, but his lack of power shouldn't be the reason against it. Pigeon-holing players into conventional roles just perpetuates the problems of this organizations obsession with 'traditional' baseball.
by chefasaurus on Dec 20, 2007 12:03 PM PST up reply actions
Re: The bat for 1B
Take Molina (no really... )
He hit. .276/.298/.433 last year. That sucks. NL average was .266/.336/.423.
So is Molina a below average hitter? Well, he would be except he's a catcher... catcher average is .255/.321/.393.
So that makes him a bit above average FOR A CATCHER (I think after you adjust for AT&T)
It has nothing to do with how your idiot GM constructed your roster so you don't have average hitting corner IFs.
Re: The bat for 1B
When it comes to evaluating a young player, I don't think you should judge a player based on his 'traditional' role or position. An average 1B doesn't have to hit 25 HRs. I more concerned with them breaking the 266/.334/.422 barriers than I am about what position they have to play.
PHELPS
His production last year is exactly what Aurilia was meant to be. I'm not sold on the defense of either backup catcher, so why not sign Phelps to be the backup catcher, RF/LF (not at ATT prob) and occasional 1B?
I'd love to see Aurilia get shipped to NY with Sanchez for Betemit (I think he could be the everyday 3B) and Ohlendorf (or other pitcher not named Joba/Phil/Ian) ...

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