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Around SBN: Hugh Douglas Admits To Stealing From Jaguars

Sorry....

Pedro Feliz used to be the amphibious tarantula making a nest in the toilet bowl of the offseason. That is, he was my biggest fear of the offseason. And don't get me wrong, even a one-year deal to Feliz still scares me. It just isn't my biggest fear anymore. I know what I write isn't going to be popular in some circles, but here goes....

Dan Ortmeier starting at first base for the 2008 Giants -- that's my biggest fear right now. His career minor league on-base percentage is .348. His career minor league slugging percentage is .433. Last year in Fresno, he walked only 27 times in 305 at-bats and had 63 strikeouts. That's a 26-year-old in AAA. If he were a minor league shortstop, he should have needed some pretty special defense to warrant a call up with his AAA numbers last year (.262/.333/.430). But the Giants were desperate, and Ortmeier responded with the highest slugging percentage of his professional career.

It's just swell that he did okay in 157 major league at-bats, but it might have been the worst thing to happen to the 2008 Giants. In those 157 at-bats, Ortmeier struck out 41 times and only walked seven times. Those are the numbers of an overmatched and unpolished hitter. But Ortmeier was also able to rope four triples and six home runs in those at-bats, so the slugging percentage looks acceptable. It's all a sample-size mirage.

What Ortmeier has going for him:

  • He's under 30
  • The Giants don't have any better options
End list. In the spirit of Walter Sobchak: You want an under-30 first baseman? I can get you an under-30 first baseman. I can get you an under-30 first baseman by 2:00, dude. With nail polish. If we're just talking about a guy to plop down at first, I'd rather see these guys get 300 at-bats:
Josh Whitesell
Val Pascucci
Tagg Bozied
Jorge Cantu
Josh Phelps
Chris Nowak
Ryan Mulhern
Craig Brazell
Nate Gold
Lance Niekro
Yeah, I went there. Niekro at least has a history of AAA success. With maybe a couple of exceptions, everyone on that list would be available if the Giants asked really, really nicely. I'm not sure that more than two or three of those players even belong on a major league bench; they are miserable options to start at first for a major league team. It's just that the alternative is even more miserable.

I'd certainly rather have a switch-hitter who can run and play all three outfield positions on my bench than everyone up there but Cantu, so it isn't as if I think Ortmeier's useless. But an organization that can't upgrade over Ortmeier as a starting first baseman after four months of looking is an organization that has failed.

I'd rather have an expensive first baseman with a past history of success, like Richie Sexson.

I'd rather have a cheap first baseman with a past history of minor league success, even one like Lance Niekro.

I'd rather have a sub-.300 OBP guy like Tony Clark...wait, no I wouldn't. Try harder, Sabes! Try harder, dammit!

Young and homegrown are not synonyms for promising. There are two months left in the offseason. The priority of the offseason should have been corner infielders.

I feel like I'm the subject of a "Twilight Zone" episode.

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Re: Sorry....
Please. for your information, grant, the giants front office has ROUNDLY REJECTED [your] prior recommendations.
"cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"

by The Gene Hackman on Dec 19, 2007 10:27 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I am enjoying a cup of coffee right now. And I'm finishing it.

by Grant Brisbee on Dec 19, 2007 10:29 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Only the Giants would play a 4/5th OF as a starting first baseman.

Oy.

by xanthan on Dec 19, 2007 10:32 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
You mean...A 6/7th OF on this team.
Coming to you from the Land of Many Beers

by WalrusMan on Dec 19, 2007 10:36 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Craig Brazell?  I'll take one, please.

The nice thing with Cantu is that he's also versatile, so if need be, we can plug him into 3B on occasion.

Brian Anderson: I can has spot in Fresno 'pen?

by JT Jordan on Dec 19, 2007 10:43 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Cantu is kinda a crappy fielder, so why he could play 3B/2B, he probably shouldn't.

by xanthan on Dec 19, 2007 10:45 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I believe I said "on occasion"- I didn't mean as an everyday player.  Worst case scenario, he's playing 3B everyday.
Brian Anderson: I can has spot in Fresno 'pen?

by JT Jordan on Dec 19, 2007 11:43 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
The thing about Cantu is that he's Feliz-esque as far as OBP.  The dude has 66 career BBs.  That's a lil' scary.  I believe his ever-declining on base average was why the Rays dropped him last year.
Here's to Kemp, Loney, LaRoche, Hu, and Kershaw not panning out.

by Woody Wins on Dec 19, 2007 1:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
66 CAREER walks??? wow, didnt bonds get more than that in one at-bat once?

by projectmayhem713 on Dec 20, 2007 11:38 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I'd like to take full credit for this main page story.

That was in August.

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 19, 2007 10:49 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Howie, you're out of your element.
Grant, the coffee is NOT the issue here.
:-)
"cynical yet whimsical giants related signature"

by The Gene Hackman on Dec 19, 2007 11:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
The only difference with Ort might lie with Carnie Lansford.  Him being a near .300 hitter for his career might have a big play on our young hitting.  Joe Lefay was just awful last year.  Sohe might be able to get the hitting on the right course.  Thats what I like about this year, its a lets see what we can do kind of year.  The main thing with this upcoming year is to not freak out if someone slides a bit.

by Big Daddy J on Dec 19, 2007 11:07 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
"Lefay"...if it were only that easy.
Here's to Kemp, Loney, LaRoche, Hu, and Kershaw not panning out.

by Woody Wins on Dec 19, 2007 1:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
"Le Fevre"

As in Le Fevre for more cow bell.

Face first with Aaron Rowand.

by SoFa King Mike on Dec 19, 2007 2:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
For the record Tony Clark's career OBP is .339. Not that I want him, I don't. I agree that Sabean could/should do better than that. He is the right age for Sabean though; he'll be 36 in June.

by marklar on Dec 19, 2007 11:10 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
You have to worry about starting a guy at first when his best attribute is that if a basketball game spontaneously broke out on the diamond he would totally dominate it.

by W8ingForATitle on Dec 19, 2007 11:17 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
To play devil's advocate a tiny bit, wouldn't you agree that first base is probably the position where OBP matters least (after catcher)?  You want your high OBP guys batting ahead of the first baseman, so he can knock them in.  He doesn't set up the runs by getting on base, he produces the runs.

by ololo3 on Dec 19, 2007 11:15 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
A high OBP is a major sign of a good hitter, and you want a good hitter at 1B. I actually think its the position where you HAVE to expect some kind of decent power OBP combo because finding that combo in other positions is much harder to do.

by hammystyle on Dec 19, 2007 11:29 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
So what was Lance's real problem at the plate? He looked really lost last season.

Should I blame Lefebvre for the failings of Niekro, as well as Linden?

I don't know if I feel bad for the guy, but I think Lance still has some potential to be a 20+ HR masher. Well maybe against lefties.

Sorry I just started my cup of java.

Face first with Aaron Rowand.

by SoFa King Mike on Dec 19, 2007 11:17 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Linden was horrible at the plate last season, Niekro only had 17 at bats.  Personally, I want to blame THAT on Niekro's decline.  He tore up Spring Training, was third or fourth on the depth chart at first base (behind Klesko, Aurilia, and Sweeney), got almost no playing time, and was DFA'd.  I still don't understand, because he started out 2006 pretty well before he got inconsistent and was sent to the minors.  He straightened out his stuff down there and looked poised to make a return to the majors, but pretty much lost his job to Sweeney, and never played again.  I don't get it.

I've asked the same question on this site before, but nobody's given a satisfactory answer.  I'm still hoping someone can, because I just don't get it.

Okay, I've looked up his minor league stats, and his walk totals are the exact opposite of good.  But his career minor league OPS is .820.  Is that bad at the minor league level?  And he's around 28-29 now?  I don't know, I guess that's it, but I still don't feel like he ever got a fair shake.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Dec 19, 2007 1:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I doubt we'll ever see Lance at 1B again, not just because he's not very good but because the Giants (as I'm sure you know) had him toying with the knuckleball some in AAA.

by xanthan on Dec 19, 2007 1:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
One way to find some diamonds in the rough is to look for 1B prospects with low HR numbers, but decent XBH/AB rates. Since a player's HR ability is unlikely to carry over the SF anyway, why not get undervalued doubles machines? Like this guy - Jordan Brown

@ AA Akron Aeros (2007)
BB/PA = 11.3%
K/PA = 10.0% (yes, his K-rate is lower than his BB-rate!)
XBH/AB = 10.1% (Just to put this number in some sort of context, Pujols' XBH/AB is 12.65% and Ryan Howard's is 13.8%)

This guy clearly isn't a slouch. He just doesn't hit for power in a position that demands it.

by Nathan on Dec 19, 2007 11:19 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Unlike the aforementioned players, this guy is only 23.

by Nathan on Dec 19, 2007 11:21 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I'm in; sign me up for some of that.

It is depressing to think that Sabean would probaly never make a move like that. In spite of the fact that we will not be competitive next year, I can't see the Giants turning over the starting 1b job to a AA player. No matter how promising.

by marklar on Dec 19, 2007 11:29 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Brown has some upside. He was just ranked the 9th best prospect in the Indians "Top 11" from BP.

Here's what Goldstein had to say about him:

Jordan Brown, 1B
DOB: 12/18/83
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 4th round, 2005, University of Arizona
2007 Stats: .333/.421/.484 at Double-A (127 G)

Year In Review: The 2006 Carolina League MVP followed that up by improving across the board and earning the same honor in the Eastern League.

The Good: Brown is the definition of the term 'professional hitter.' He works the count exceedingly well while still being aggressive, and he can hit any pitch anywhere in the strike zone, while adding gap power to the mix. He's an average defender at first base.

The Bad: Thick and slow, Brown is limited to first base, where his offensive profile doesn't really match. His level swing and contact-oriented approach is not conducive to much power. At 24, he's not exactly young and filled with untapped potential.

Fun Fact: Brown hit exactly .333 against both lefties and righties in 2007.

Perfect World Projection: The next Lyle Overbay?

Timetable: Because of what he is, Brown will have to prove himself at every level. The upside is that he'll start the year at Triple-A, so the proving process is almost complete.

by xanthan on Dec 19, 2007 11:36 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Should be a low cost (prospects-wise), low risk improvement over anything Sabes has right now.

by Nathan on Dec 19, 2007 12:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I'll admit I'd never heard of him, but the review makes him sound like JT Snow without the slick fielding.
McCovey Chronicles was better when mine was the lowest IQ on the board.

by Goofus on Dec 19, 2007 1:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I think the Giants should go for it.  

What about another 1B from Cleveland: Michael Aubrey?

Maybe the Giants could trade for Marte and Brown/Aubrey?

by Bib12 @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 19, 2007 2:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Marte
I keep hearing interest in Marte but, for what it's worth, a colleague at work who follows Cleveland closely thinks he's a total waste, partly because of attitude, and will never be an adequate major leaguer. When the going got tough, he shriveled. A lot of these guys have been stars all their lives. How they react when the reach a level of competition that really puts them to the test is highly unpredictable.

by NearestNorwich on Dec 19, 2007 6:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Marte
I checked out his stats earlier and I think you are right.  Since 2005, his numbers have gotten progressively worse.  

I suppose there is the possibility that a change of scenery is needed, but as you indicated, his problems may be deeper than just a change of scenery.

by Bib12 @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 19, 2007 6:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Marte
Thanks for this post, NN.  This is the type of information we really need - to offset the BA rankings and sgtats that we can all read.  The scouts and teams know a lot more about these guys than we do reading stats - so it is great to get that ocassional glimpse into the person of a player.

by allfrank on Dec 19, 2007 8:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Marte
Marte hasn't been in any BA ranking for a couple of years now.

He's got a lot of upside but he could stall out, I don't think anyone is saying anything different about him.

by xanthan on Dec 19, 2007 8:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Marte
Marte also kinda reminds me of how the Indians dealt with Brandon Phillips, a blue chip prospect that was stalling out in AAA and was traded away to find new life in another organization. It's possible that Marte is one of those guys that just needs a change of scenery.

Of course, Phillips went to a pretty good place to hit, but he still turned in a pretty nice season his year.

by xanthan on Dec 19, 2007 8:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Marte
You're right on the money there! I'm a Cleveland fan who dated a Giants fan for a bit and got hooked into following the team.

While opinion isn't universal, most people who follow the Tribe closely are in favor of giving Marte the job with little to no strings attached.

This Indians are one the more risk averse organizations in baseball. They won't sacrifice a sure for high-risk/high-reward quantities. Josh Barfield is big as it gets when it comes to blockbuster trades in the last four years. The free agent signings are equally tame - Dellucci, Nixon, Fultz, etc... This isn't necessarily a bad thing when you do a great job identifying talent. But you also run the risk of demoralizing your ML-ready talent by keeping them in the minors too long. Marte isn't the only case. Here are the other....

Brandon Phillips

  • The Indians brought him up in 2003, a rebuilding year, after he'd seen a half season in AAA the year before (2002). A little bit on the early side, but not terrible.
  • He tanked in the majors in 2003.
  • He gets back on the horse and puts up a (.303/.358/.430) line at AAA in 2004 with a vast improvement in his K/BB ratio.
  • Having look to have earned a call up, he gets sent back down to Buffalo and has a worse year, once again.
  • He gets traded to Cincinnati amid questions about his 'attitude'
  • Turns into a star in CIN
Ryan Garko
  • Rockets through the minors and puts up a (.303/.384/.498) line in a full year at AAA
  • Having look to have earned a call up, he gets sent back down to Buffalo and repeats AAA.
  • Posts a (.270/.359/.470) line in a two month call up in 2006, but still starts 2007 on the bench. Injuries get him in the lineup and he turns into a solid contributor.
  • There were questions about his 'commitment' to defense before the 2007 season.
Jeremy Guthrie
  • Never did anything to merit a call up until 2006 when he finally posted a sub-4.00 ERA (3.15 to be exact) in AAA with a 1.23 WHIP.
  • In his call up in 2006, when the Indians were comfortably out of the race, he only pitched 19 innings in two months in the majors.
  • Having been groomed as a starter, he got only ONE start in the majors in a Cleveland uniform.
  • Given a starting job in Baltimore in 2007, he finally has a fine season in the majors.
  • Never accused of having any attitude problem.
Andy Marte
  • Same old shit, different player. How did Marte's 2005 in AAA not earn him a shot at the starting job in 2006? The Braves AAA team is also in the IL, like the Indians'.
  • Like Garko, he experiences a decline when forced to repeat AAA for no good reason.
  • Flashes a mean glove and some power in his two month call up late in 2006.
  • Presumably earned the starting job in 2007 with no strings attached. Loses the job after a horrid April, which ended in injury. Never regained the job.
  • Now has 'attitude' questions marks.
Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Andruw Jones and Gary Sheffield got off to equally atrocious starts in their career. Their teams persisted with them and got great major leaguers. Look, its entirely possible that Marte sucks. Period. But its really hard to know what kind of player you have from a 278 AB sample scattered over three years. Talk about 'toughness' and 'attitude' all you want. Imagine who you would have felt if you were 22 or 23, had succeeded at your previous level and were never given a fair chance at the next level. I'd have attitude problems too.

Cleveland destroys a few good prospects every year by holding them back in the minors way too long. Ben Francisco, Andy Marte and Kelly Shoppach deserve chances to start elsewhere. Look at their minor league numbers. Look at what ages they 'graduated' AAA. The ML-ready players riding the bench because their FO and manager are risk averse fools.

by Nathan on Dec 19, 2007 10:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Marte
If that is the case, then I think it is all the more reason for the Giants to trade for both Jordan Brown and Marte, especially since Marte's value is low right now.

I would just love to see Marte have a Brandon Phillips-like comeback.  Plus, it would not hurt to have Jordan Brown putting up Lyle Overbay numbers.

by Bib12 @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 20, 2007 9:23 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Marte
There's a difference between Marte's perceived value on the open market and the value who has to the Indians. I'd imagine that the Indians would value him considerably more than any package another team would be expected to offer. There is no heir apparent to take over from Casey Blake (in the last year of arbitration) in their minor league system. As such, I believe he'd only be available a second or third piece to a blockbuster in an impossible trade scenario (read: Lincecum or Cain). This is not unlike their unwillingness to include Asdrubal Cabrera in any trade package even though he only has a ML trade record of a couple of months.

Brown and Shoppach are players who would have more value to almost any other team in baseball and could be had at a bargain price. Both are blocked by solid big league players (Martinez, Garko) who are more than three years away from free agency. Its possible a high-upside quantity like Sanchez could over both those guys and more.

by Nathan on Dec 20, 2007 10:01 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Marte
"Its possible a high-upside quantity like Sanchez could over both those guys and more."

Sign me up please. Players like Marte, Shoppach & Brown are good players for us to be looking at, but i'm pretty skeptical about Sabean having much interest in them!

by GiantFan on Dec 21, 2007 1:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
The guy I really wanted last year (Pena) worked out pretty well. ;)

Really, I'd like to see what Nick Johnson would cost. Its Bowden, so its probably ridiculous, but it is worth asking.

Other would be types who haven't gotten a shot:

  • Justin Huber, still young, but apparently ran over Dayton Moore's dog. Unclear why he hasn't been given a go.
  • Chris Carter (the Boston one) - decent prospect, no real place in Boston. the idea of Epstein trading with Sabean gives me the shivers

Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.

by Aadik on Dec 19, 2007 11:29 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Yeah, Huber would be a good one. Still relatively young, has never gotten a fair chance, decent career minor league numbers, buried on his team for some reason... I'd like to see them try to get him. He wouldn't be a savior or anything, but I've always wondered how he would do if he were given 450-500 consistent ABs at the major league level.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Dec 19, 2007 11:34 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I suspect Sabean will go with your third option.
Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Dec 19, 2007 11:35 AM PST up reply actions  

Endless
Huber, Carter, Dan Johnson.....surplus first basemen who would be more likely to give you first base production are in almost endless supply.  Not sure why, but it seems like Brian Sabean just doesn't think that way.  Last year, for example, he completely ignored my advice and signed Ryan Klesko instead of trading a low level grade C pitching prospect for Jack Cust.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 19, 2007 11:38 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Endless
Just be carefull with Cust, he might have a needle in his butt.

by Big Daddy J on Dec 19, 2007 12:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Is Nick Johnson even going to play again? Last I heard he was very, very slowly recovering from two separate surgeries, one on his broken leg and another on his hip (a result of the broken leg not healing right, I think) and his availability for 2008 was "questionable" (hence the Nats extending Dmitri Young).

I think his upside at this point is 'walking without crutches.'

by GiantFanInExile on Dec 19, 2007 12:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I've been on the Nick Johnson campaign for a while. Yeah, even with his injury situation, I agree Bowden's not gonna give him away. I say if he shows up in ST and looks healthy, Sabean should dropkick the tires on this one, and I mean the top of the ropes kind of dropkick.

I wouldn't go as far as Jonathan Sanchez, but Henessey and Misch for a healthy Johnson I can live with.

Another 1B flying under the radar is Hee Sop Choi, okay, I'm just joking there, but hey, Niekro was brought up in this thread.

How about Scotty Thorman?  

Uribe to Thompson to Clark: Don't tinker ever with chance

by tellusfrank on Dec 19, 2007 2:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Scott Thorman
I wonder why his name hasn't come up.  He'll get somewhere between zero and none starts at 1B next year in ATL.  Unlike Ort, he actually hit minor league pitching pretty well.  Weird.

by chefasaurus on Dec 19, 2007 4:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
dont we all just want 'a healthy Johnson we can live with...'

by projectmayhem713 on Dec 20, 2007 11:50 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Or a healthy Johnson is worth paying for or dying for...(if my bulkmail is to be believed)
Uribe to Thompson to Clark: Don't tinker ever with chance

by tellusfrank on Dec 20, 2007 3:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
My question is: What is stopping Sabean from trading for two of these guys right now?  These teams wouldn't want too much for these guys, would they?

by Bib12 @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 19, 2007 2:29 PM PST up reply actions  

1st and 3rd
The corners are essentially the only place, right now, where bringing in a veteren wouldn't block any body that is at least semi-promising.  So what does Sabean do?  He goes out and signs a centerfielder.  Unless an outfielder is dealt, he has ensured that 2 or 3 semi-promising players have approximately zero chance of breaking out while at the same time leaving two huge, gaping maws at spots where it is easier to find good hitters at.  That is incompetance on a grand scale.  

I'm giving him until the end of the off-season.  I gave him the benefit of the doubt because he was saying all of the right things.  I gave him the benefit of the doubt because...well, because I was hopeful, mostly.  So unless there is some grand plan here, unless Sabean is showing extreme patience, I am off the Sabean-hopemobile.  I am joining E in the pit of despair, hopelessness and cynicism (also known as Giants 1st base).  

He'd better impress me before the end of the day.  Or else the next tires he should be kicking are those of a hearse (figuratively speaking, of course).

Anyways, I know that was random and all, but being reminded that right now our firstmen are Dan Ortmeier and Rich Aurilia made something snap.  You know things are bad when you make the eternal optimist snap...

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Dec 19, 2007 11:33 AM PST reply actions  

Niekro
A history of AAA success is only relevant for players without a history of ML failure.
All your signature are belong to us.

by EliminateMe on Dec 19, 2007 11:52 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Niekro
amen
"I'd take pleasure in gutting you boy" Oh and ignore the spelling. I do.....

by someguynamedg on Dec 19, 2007 12:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Wow, Grant, no one has called for your head on a plate yet!

by Skaldheim on Dec 19, 2007 12:39 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I was going to, but I decided to try the seafood jumbalaya instead.
"When Jackson Williams thinks of how many times Madison Bumgarner has tried to kill Tyler Walker..."

by multiphasic on Dec 19, 2007 1:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
If you're going to ask for a guy's head on a plate, might I suggest an open face sandwich?
McCovey Chronicles was better when mine was the lowest IQ on the board.

by Goofus on Dec 19, 2007 9:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Accompanied by Spray Cheese and wax teeth

by E Ticket on Dec 20, 2007 9:30 AM PST up reply actions  

I can't explain it...
And, since I haven't seen any comments majorly contradicting your point, I'm guessing I'm in the tiny minotiry...

But I'd kinda like to see him start at first. The only way I'd be more pleased is if I heard they started to teach Nate to play 1b.

I'm perfectly willing to admit this is one of the "but I just like that guy" moments, but I don't often blindly do that, so...yeah, I'd really like to see Dan at 1b.

Flame on :(

And Boom Goes the Dynamite

by Andy from DC on Dec 19, 2007 12:40 PM PST reply actions  

Re: I can't explain it...
That's pretty much how I feel too.  I'd rather see Ort at first then any sort of reclamation project like Sexon or Clark.  I know there's little chance that he will succeed there, but since 2008 is a lost year anyway, I'd like to give him a chance.
"natto is just weird and gross in smell, texture, and taste" - BVCE

by SF Pete on Dec 19, 2007 12:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: I can't explain it...
I'm in the minority too.  Sure, he's got a 10% chance at being above average, but I can actually accept that for a few months.  Say he does prove the skeptics wrong, it would be nice to say we dodged an aging and expesive bullet (Sexson, et al.)  

If he ends up looking like Ray Charles at the plate -- ditch him and play Aurilia.  Then someone can start an OT Dennis Green diary:  "Ort was who we thought he was".  And you guys get the last laugh.

There clearly isn't enough sample size to say for sure what he is or isn't capable of.  All I know is that I've always thought he had a pretty sweet swing and he seems athletic.  That's not enough to crown him the 1B of the future, but I feel like it earns him a shot (not on a good team of course, but on the '08 Giants, sure).

Here's to Kemp, Loney, LaRoche, Hu, and Kershaw not panning out.

by Woody Wins on Dec 19, 2007 1:43 PM PST up reply actions  

You put how I feel much better
Stupid head cold at work.

But, yeah, we're not gonna be great. Why sign someone expensive/old and not great, or play someone old/not great (richie) over a guy that at least has a chance to be a contributer.

And Boom Goes the Dynamite

by Andy from DC on Dec 19, 2007 1:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You put how I feel much better
But there are countless players who have MORE chance of being contributors. I'm talking about bench players, stalled prospects, minor-league free agents -- players who are just hanging around, hoping for a shot.

I mean, Ortmeier was about the eighth-best hitter on his triple-A team last year. That's just counting the regulars; a bunch of the bench players were better too. Why is he the one who deserves to be a major-league first baseman?

by Evan on Dec 19, 2007 2:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You put how I feel much better
That's a good question.  My guess would be that Ortmeier once was the type of "stalled prospect" you speak of.  In the low minors he sorta set the world on fire and turned a few heads.  From there my history of Ort gets a little fuzzy but I do recall him skipping AAA and getting a taste of the parent club, then he sorta yo-yo'd around for a bit, had an injury, underperformed, and then...yeah.  

I think he's a deserving in-house option.

Here's to Kemp, Loney, LaRoche, Hu, and Kershaw not panning out.

by Woody Wins on Dec 19, 2007 4:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You put how I feel much better
In the low minors he sorta set the world on fire and turned a few heads.

That's the the thing; he never set the world on fire. He hit .304/.365/.471 as a 22-year-old in the California League, which probably wasn't way above the Cal League average in 2003. He hit .274/ .360/.463 in the 2005 Eastern League, which is more impressive, but when those two seasons are the highlight of a professional career, it makes none sense to hope he can ever be better than the 30th-best starting 1B in baseball.

by Grant Brisbee on Dec 19, 2007 4:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You put how I feel much better
All true, but it's so fun to see "Ort, Ort, Ort!" when he gets a hit. Too bad he didn't arrive in time to play for the Seals.

by NearestNorwich on Dec 19, 2007 6:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You put how I feel much better
Correction:  He sorta set the (Giants') world on fire and turned a few (basement level expectation) heads.
Here's to Kemp, Loney, LaRoche, Hu, and Kershaw not panning out.

by Woody Wins on Dec 19, 2007 8:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: I can't explain it...
I'm with Andy on this one.
Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Dec 20, 2007 9:46 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....

I agree (duh).  If and that is a Giant "IF" Ortmeier has turned some sort of batting corner, then he can start at AAA at 1B and knock the cover off the ball.

I would literally rather have Aurilla start at 1B, since well, we already have him.

by zenbitz on Dec 19, 2007 12:57 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Why is it that we complain about the old players and now we complain about the young players. A player gets called up and isn't an instant fenom and you give up?
I say let him bat 4th.

by rellubcat on Dec 19, 2007 1:24 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I think it's more just complaining about bad players.

by mxmob33 on Dec 19, 2007 2:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I don't think he is a bad player. We will see.

by rellubcat on Dec 19, 2007 3:15 PM PST reply actions  

Clark is Another Giant Step in the Wrong Direction
Sabean needs to be broken of his destructive habit of signing marginal geriatric baseball players.  Instead, right now he should be clearing the roster of the old, dead wood like Aurilia, Durham, Roberts and Kline.  After all, signing marginal bench players (especially those 35 and older) isn't going to help the Giants pass the three playoff teams in their own division, nor pass a Dodgers team which has improved itself with Andruw Jones and Kuroda.  So the Giants might as well play the youngsters, or trade for more prospects.
The Giants are so old, they can remember the last time the Giants won the World Series.

by They Might Be Midgets on Dec 19, 2007 3:57 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I think Ort could turn into a brain dead hacker with a decent SLG.  Like a Pedro, but one who actually hits for power semi regularly.  Like say .265/.325/.470.  I'll take that for free for a year or two.

I  believe in minor league success giving an idea of potential, but I also believe that if you have nothing to lose (except 100 games), there's a chance to find a guy who no one expected to succeed.  Alex Rios' career minor league averages were .293/.333/.401.  So he hite for better average but was even more suck than Ort.  

I'm not worried about Ortmeier starting at 1B.  I'm worried about Sabean giving some old loser a two year contract.  

by chefasaurus on Dec 19, 2007 4:34 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
fwiw, Rios was also significantly younger every step of the way in the minors than Ort was. He also was a lot more touted by scouts.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Dec 19, 2007 4:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
It's not even close.

Age    ort    OPS    rios    OPS
21    A-    778    A+    752
22    A+    849    AA    923
23    AA    776    MLB    721
24    AA    823    MLB    703
25    AAA    682    MLB    865
26    MLB    814    MLB    852

Rios pastes AA in the pitcher's Eastern League at age 22, reaching the 900 OPS mark that Ortmeier doesn't match even after his second tour of the same league while two years older.

Rios has two straight good years unbder his belt now.  Ortmeier's only good year was in high A, in the hitter's California League, a half-decade ago.

I'd really like to see him succeed, but counting on it is a mistake.  He's a long shot.

by wcw on Dec 19, 2007 5:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
No doubt he's a long shot.  My point was simply that players actually do out-perform their minor league numbers (as Ort did this year or Matt Holliday and Alexis Rios have in their short careers).  

 With a team that is destined for last place no matter what, it's worth giving Ort one year to see if he can duplicate over 400 PAs.  There is absolutely nothing to lose.  This team is going to lose 90 games with Ort, Aurilia, Clark or Casey or just about anyone short of Pujols and Fielder at first (and even then, it's still not a playoff team).  That .08% chance of Ort succeeding is worth more than the talent to acquire a reclamation project or the money to sign another stop-gap veteran.  

Now if an opportunity to acquire a legit 1B of the future came along, I'd forget all about the Big German.  But replacing him with Clark or whoever is just a move for the sake of making a move.

by chefasaurus on Dec 19, 2007 8:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Yes, players do outperform their minor league numbers, but Rios was not one of them.  When you paste the Eastern League at 22, you've done something impressive.  Look: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/03top10s/bluejays.html

Rios may not have been a top prospect before that age-22 breakthrough, but he was after.  Sure, he could have stalled out, but would have been underperformance.

Ortmeier has had a few nice stretches, but even in a system as thin as the Giants for bats, he's never cracked a top-ten-prospects list.  Comparing him to Rios is a bigger stretch than the hopes he can be a productive major-leaguer.

by wcw on Dec 19, 2007 10:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Nate Gold
Where is this guy currently? I watched him while my buddy (and Giants 41st round draft pick in 2005) Eric Dworkis pitched for Gonzaga in college. Gold was an absolute beast in college. Seemed like every time he came up and made contact, the ball went out of the park. His senior season I think he hit 33 bombs or something in 50 games or something. What has his professional career been like to this point?

by joebirdie3 on Dec 19, 2007 5:24 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Nate Gold
He's in the Rangers organization. You can't fake that kind of power. He's unlikely to be anything more than a benchie, if that, but just maybe....

by Grant Brisbee on Dec 19, 2007 5:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Nate Gold
Wow 26 HR and 103 RBI last year in AAA ain't too shabby! Jack Cust from the right side!

by joebirdie3 on Dec 19, 2007 5:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Dan Johnson
can probably be had for close to free. Take him if you want him.

by Zonis on Dec 19, 2007 6:00 PM PST reply actions  

Ultimately though...
What does it honestly matter?  We're not gonna contend next year.  We're not going to even come close.

Why not just plop him down there for a season and see what happens?  If he's so bad that he needs to be benched...bench him.

We need to rebuild and we need to see what we have when given a proper opportunity to play everyday.

I'm still going to go to games and I'll actually be MORE excited to see unproven talent on the field than tired old vets stealing the playing time of youth.

by Sigualicious on Dec 19, 2007 9:25 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
Some Bill James projections for Grant's list and others:

.272/.328/.456 Cantu in Cin
.284/.361/.496 Phelps in Pit
.272/.370/.394 Hatteberg in Cin
.258/.366/.452 Johnson in Oak
.242/.314/.479 Clark in Ari
.247/.294/.496 McPherson in LA
.253/.305/.403 Ort in SF
.246/.339/.479 Sexson in Sea
.240/.345/.451 Wilkerson in Tex

by Dan from NM on Dec 19, 2007 10:26 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I can't say i agree that it worries me much. I don't disagree with your skepticism about Ortmeier, i'm not confident that he'll make it, especially at 1B, but i don't see any harm in him playing there this year.

Sure, i'd rather someone better & hope we can make a trade & acquire someone with more chance of being a competent 1B, but i'd much rather Ortmeier play than some of the other options such as Clark or Niekro (I'd rather have a guy play who's probably going to fail, than one who has already failed).

by GiantFan on Dec 20, 2007 1:52 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I agree com pletely.  I jsut don't think it is either/or.  I think a valid question that mgmt should be thinki9ng about is a) how to do it, and b) when to call and end to it.  For a) I even though he is a switch hitter, platooning him is probably the better option.  It will give him a couple fo days a week to clear his head, etc and it takes away some of the pressure of having to perform day in day out.  Personally, I am comfortable w/ Aurilia as the platoon partner.  So, maybe the Clark idea comes more under b); Because you ahve to have an idea how youare going to deal with failure, if it occurs.  ie, how long to you let him hit 7th and bat 210?  Certainly not all summer, not all 162 games.  August at the latest, likely sooner.  Wouldn't Calrk (if he was on the bench a la Sweeney) be handy, then?

by allfrank on Dec 20, 2007 6:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sorry....
I am on the same page with not giving the total job to Ortmeire.  Barring the team getting a higher ceiling  player for first Ortmeire should be given most of the starts. But he has not spent a full season in the Bigs. There is no way to know if his mind & body can handle it without breaking down. It should be clear the first couple stumbles does not automatically mean 2 weeks helping the towel boy.  

  But then that brings us back to veterans never seem to be able to play themselves out of playing time. I would be a lot happier about the up coming couple seasons if it appeared merit had a bigger role in divvying playing time while  accumulated,  dust encrusted,  laurels were removed from their  current trump card status.

by daveinexile on Dec 20, 2007 9:20 AM PST up reply actions  

The answer is obvious
There's only 1 serious contender to play 1st base next year.
  1. He'll be 24 next year.  
  2. He hit .304 in the bigs last year.  
  3. He owns a Minor League line of 308/352/508.  
  4. He will make major league minimum for the next 3 seasons.  
  5. He's currently on a team with 3 much better defensive outfielders.  
  6. He's already a Giant.  
Zealously advocating for Nate the Great since 2007.

by orangeandblackattack on Dec 20, 2007 9:29 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The answer is obvious
Schierholtz can hit a little, sure, but using him at 1B when he can play a respectable if uninspiring RF is a complete waste.  Even Ortmeier turns from useful, if below-average, in the outfield to essentially useless at 1B.

1B is where you stash the gimpy, immobile and otherwise defense-impaired.  Sure, it's nice when you have a 3B-capable glove like Pujols's out there, but it's not the end of the world if you don't.

by wcw on Dec 20, 2007 10:53 AM PST up reply actions  

Waste is relative
The waste is going to be Nate riding the pine most of the season or spending another year in AAA.  Because that's what's going to happen if he doesn't play first base (or third base) this season.  
 
Zealously advocating for Nate the Great since 2007.

by orangeandblackattack on Dec 20, 2007 11:16 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Waste is relative
Another year in 3A seems fine to me.  Flip one of the pricey, veteran OFs at the deadline and bring him up if he's hitting well.

He needs to play every day, for his defense as well as his bat.  At 1B, his defense atrophies, and without defense he's not a very interesting player.

by wcw on Dec 20, 2007 11:33 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The answer is obvious
"1B is where you stash the gimpy, immobile and otherwise defense-impaired."

Only if that player is a masher. 1b defense is under-rated. A good defensive firstbaseman raises the level of defense for the entire infield. There is a reason that the Giants were a good defensive team when JT played 1st. JT's ability to dig throws out of the dirt turned many potential errors into outs.

by marklar on Dec 20, 2007 2:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The answer is obvious
Sounds like a good theory... what's the evidence for this?

by zenbitz on Dec 20, 2007 5:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The answer is obvious
Although Nate Schierholtz is a much better hitter than Dan Ortmeier, Nate himself doesn't have the bat for first base, either.

I think there is a good chance the Giants will trade either Randy Winn or Dave Roberts, however, giving Nate a deserved shot at starting in the outfield.

At a corner outfield position, he shouldn't hit much below a league-average level for the position and might eventually grow into being average or even above-average (with the latter being far more likely IMO if he waits for more pitches he can drive).

by sharksrog on Dec 20, 2007 11:17 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The bat for 1B
I don't know if it's fair to judge players bats based on the position they play.  Sure, it's nice to have power hitters on the corners, but it doesn't always have to be that way.  The Giants will have a 5 hitter in CF next year, a LF might be leading off and a C may hit in the clean-up role (whole 'nother discussion there).

If a guy can hit, he should get a chance to play.  Especially with the Giants as current constructed.  Not saying Nate should play 1B, but his lack of power shouldn't be the reason against it.  Pigeon-holing players into conventional roles just perpetuates the problems of this organizations obsession with 'traditional' baseball.  

by chefasaurus on Dec 20, 2007 12:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The bat for 1B
Sure it's fair!  The concept is "replacement level".

Take Molina (no really... )
He hit. .276/.298/.433 last year.  That sucks.  NL average was .266/.336/.423.

So is Molina a below average hitter?  Well, he would be except he's a catcher... catcher average is .255/.321/.393.

So that makes him a bit above average FOR A CATCHER (I think after you adjust for AT&T)

It has nothing to do with how your idiot GM constructed your roster so you don't have average hitting corner IFs.

by zenbitz on Dec 20, 2007 5:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The bat for 1B
I can buy that for a catcher (or a SS for that matter).  I'm just talking more in general.  This was sort of a tangent from the topic.  I'll start a diary along those lines.

When it comes to evaluating a young player, I don't think you should judge a player based on his 'traditional' role or position.  An average 1B doesn't have to hit 25 HRs.  I more concerned with them breaking the 266/.334/.422 barriers than I am about what position they have to play.  

by chefasaurus on Dec 20, 2007 7:35 PM PST up reply actions  

PHELPS
Phelps is really an interesting case worth looking at further I think, if only as a bench bat.

His production last year is exactly what Aurilia was meant to be. I'm not sold on the defense of either backup catcher, so why not sign Phelps to be the backup catcher, RF/LF (not at ATT prob) and occasional 1B?

I'd love to see Aurilia get shipped to NY with Sanchez for Betemit (I think he could be the everyday 3B) and Ohlendorf (or other pitcher not named Joba/Phil/Ian) ...

by aGIANTfan on Dec 21, 2007 9:01 AM PST reply actions  

Re: PHELPS
I'd love to see Phelps as a cheap bench player / occasional starter. I think he'll out hit Tony Clark next year and be much cheaper.

by xanthan on Dec 21, 2007 11:04 AM PST up reply actions  

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