The Value of Dirt
As I wrote before, I'm a little surprised that the Yankees preferred to talk about a Sanchez-for-Matsui deal rather than a Lowry-for-Matsui deal. Sanchez can't really control his fastball, and his breaking ball works only in half of his appearances. Forget about a third pitch; it's gonna be a while.
Unless, of course, you're the GM of another team who happens to be reading this. In that case, Sanchez is just like a left-handed Lincecum, but he has a better nickname.
I love the minor league strikeout rate. Heck, I love the major league strikeout rate. But I ultimately see his ceiling as a late-inning reliever. Alan Embree at his best, for example. I'd love to be wrong.
This is why I'm willing to throw Sanchez's name into just about any deal. Lowry for Joey Votto? No way the Reds agree to that. Lowry and Sanchez for Votto? I don't know if the Reds would agree, but I sure can't think of a reason why the Giants would refuse that trade. Well, other than a fear that Votto's left-handed power wouldn't play in Mays Field and that his scary platoon splits would severely limit his value.
I'm getting off track.
Sanchez's value is:
a. A good position player prospect back in a straight-up trade. (i.e. Votto for Sanchez)
b. A good position player back as part of a package. (Sanchez, other, and other for Votto)
c. A veteran position player with talent and an iffy contract. (Matsui)
d. Far less than we're giving him credit for.
Open Sanchez Valuation Thread.
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Re: The Value of Dirt
Re: The Value of Dirt
I think Sanchez for someone like Clevelend's Jordan Brown/Michael Aubrey + another prospect seems about right to me.
I just wish Sabean was willing to take chances on young players.
by Bib12 @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 14, 2007 9:47 AM PST reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
The main problem, which you are alluding to, is that the Giants haven't had many POSITION players worth giving a chance to.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 14, 2007 10:32 AM PST up reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
If you have a starting five, and a guy gets injured, you have to get someone up to start. Relievers are often a risky bunch to move to the rotation, because you need to limit their pitch counts. So you almost have to go to the farm, out of necessity. That's how guys like Lowry, Cain, and Lincecum got their first starts with the parent club in the first place.
But with position players, you can replace a guy on your major league roster with a sub on your 25 man roster. If you call the farm and bring someone up, you don't necessarily have to get them into the mix immediately.
That being said, I don't feel like a chance was really given to Niekro. If I recall, he was given the starting job essentially by default, but he had a really short leash. I remember he started out pretty hot but lost his stroke (due to injury?), and was sent back to the minors to find it. He DID find it, but lost his starting job to Mark Sweeney, who wasn't that good. He wasn't ever given a chance to get his job back. Then in spring training, he mashed the crap out of the ball, but still ended up third on the depth chart, almost never played, was DFA'd and labeled a bust. If I'm not remembering this correctly, please correct me. But to me, that's not a fair shake.
Nor was Ellison really given a fair shake. Sabes always seems like he can't wait to get a savvy veteran center fielder, and the next thing you know, no more Ellison.
Bill Mueller I'll give you. But even Aurilia and Feliz, it took years to finally crack the starting lineup. And I think you're right, they haven't developed many position players worth giving a chance to. But I felt like they should have given some guys a chance, instead of overpaying someone just because they're a savvy vet. That's just me.
Re: The Value of Dirt
As for Grant's thoughts:
I go for Option A. Votto is said to be a Jeff Conine type (ie. he'll always hit, but lumbering in the field). Nevertheless, Votto or even Encarnacion (who doesn't set me afire) would make sense; maybe both, if you deal Lowry and Sanchez. It solves so many problems and assures us that Pedro won't return.
Another favorite dream is Sanchez for Boston's Brandon Moss. Check him out!
Re: The Value of Dirt
Considering he hit .340 in Spring Training, is it really fair to say he looked lost at the plate before being DFA'd?
Seriously, I'm curious to know what you all think. Am I crazy?
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I don't see the need for Gomez on the Giants, he has basically no power at all.
by Andrew @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 14, 2007 10:01 AM PST up reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 14, 2007 10:33 AM PST up reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
by Andrew @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 14, 2007 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
My big fear is that the Giants would trade for him and immediately stick him out in right fie-- sorry, I forgot for a moment who we're talking about. Gomez to the Giants = Gomez for 2010 ROY!
by GiantFanInExile on Dec 14, 2007 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
by Andrew @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 14, 2007 1:26 PM PST up reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
I think he's worth more than that, but seeing as how he won't get a shot here and seeing as how we really need somebody like Votto, I think he's worth part of a package to get him.
Re: The Value of Dirt
Sanchez for all his faults has some pretty big upside. If he realizes it and you have already traded him for spare parts then you have made a big mistake (Sabean can't afford to make anymore of those). If he doesn't realize his potential and you kept him, well... you can at least explain it away by saying nobody made an adequate offer.
Re: The Value of Dirt
That's just the way it is here. So if we can fill a hole that actually needs to be filled using a guy who doesn't really have a place, I'm okay with it.
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Hennessey and Correia stuck because they persevered. They showed tenacity. They were also a victom of the Giant's short leash on their prospects. Maybe Sanchez will be able to show that same tenacity. Maybe he won't.
But the point is, he shouldn't. His development shouldn't have been sacrificed just because the Giants needed a left-hander out of the bullpen.
Re: The Value of Dirt
by GaryEdmundCarter on Dec 14, 2007 1:52 PM PST up reply actions
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Has anyone heard an announcer or radio personality call it this yet?
Re: The Value of Dirt
He hasn't been given a fair chance
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 14, 2007 10:00 AM PST reply actions
Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Mostly, I think they are both miscast as relievers and were harmed by a decision to make them relievers. Generally speaking, I would avoid converting a pitcher into a reliever until they proved that they can't hack it as a starter [either though injury or effectiveness]. Their 2 seam fastballs have such sharp movement that a third pitch is often not terribly necessary. But, the Giants decided that they need a third pitch to be effective as a starter. Then, they put them in the bullpen to develop that third pitch. But relievers don't often need that third pitch....
Had I been given plenary authority over baseball decisions, last years starting rotation would have been: Cain, Lowry, Lincecum, Correia, and Sanchez
[after Ortiz went down]
Of course, I never would have moved Sanchez to the pen in 2006.
Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 14, 2007 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
by bill swift on Dec 15, 2007 1:06 PM PST up reply actions
Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
That's great stuff. So with that in mind, if you are the GM, what do you do with Sanchez: trade him now; keep him as the #5 starter this year; or keep him to start the year in the pen on the big club?
Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
there's too much being made of this. This is the rule, not the exception, for young pitchers. Only blue-chip studs like Cain, Hughes, Homer Bailey, etc get the red-carpet treatment right into a ML starting rotation. If Sanchez can't deal with a little uncertainty, maybe he doesn't have the mental makeup to be a long-time major leaguer.
Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
It's hard to believe that a pitcher whose stuff is so inconsistent wouldn't benefit from an extended period of consistency and predictability in what the organization asks of him.
Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Good players tend to fight through possible obstacles.
Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Jonathan Sanchez pitched 40 in 2006 and 52 last year. And was bounced back and forth between starting and relief and AAA and MLB.
Each of those guys had pretty consistent assignments.
Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Johan Santana was actually bounced around a lot and really struggled his first couple years in the bigs. He got it together as a spot-starter/reliever and then within a year was a Cy Young. So hopefully Sanchez does something like that.
Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Not that I've ever been placed in the situation of starting vs. bullpen pitching (those couple years of pitching in Little League were mostly starting, mind you ;-) ), but from what I understand, starting is a whole different beast than relieving (pacing yourself as a starter, not relying on just 1 or 2 pitches, etc.). I think by moving Sanchez back and forth so much it's really screwed with his consistency.
I understand what you're saying (I think), that young guys should start in the pen and eventually become a starter. I can't necessarily disagree with that, but I think to switch back and forth can really be detrimental to the pitcher. It's one thing if it's a one-time switch from reliever to starter, but back and forth hurts him, I think.
by UnleashTheGore on Dec 14, 2007 11:29 AM PST up reply actions
Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Sanchez, however, has definitely been jerked around a little too much.
Re: The Value of Dirt
That said, he's not a good pitcher right now, so it's hard to imagine other teams giving us all that much for him.
Re: The Value of Dirt
Despite the fact he has low value, I would not object to trading him now - plenty of other guys have gone past him and he is far from a lock for the pen next year. And by '09 we may well have several other more reliable options - meaning, it is a huge unknown whether he will ever raise his value.
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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 14, 2007 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
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http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/comments/2007/11/19/121318/01/32#32
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by UnleashTheGore on Dec 14, 2007 10:23 AM PST up reply actions
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Semi seriously though if those two (Towers and Beane) like a player odds are you should as well.
by daveinexile on Dec 14, 2007 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
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by UnleashTheGore on Dec 14, 2007 11:31 AM PST up reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/comments/2007/11/20/17712/431/39#39
by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 11:58 AM PST up reply actions
Oh come now
Beane's trade record is actually fairly balanced. The Mulder trade is balanced out by the Hudson trade, for example.
Beane's strength is being able to dig up underrated players like Ellis, Cust, Gaudin, either as minor trades or as "throw ins" to bigger trades.
Re: The Value of Dirt
Seriously, I love Billy Beane too, but he has too high a reputation among some fans. I think it's because in general a lot of us like the risks he takes better than the ones Sabean takes, so we give Billy a lot more slack. But he's way way far from bulletproof.
Re: The Value of Dirt
Re: The Value of Dirt
by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 9:01 PM PST up reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
Err,
Bonderman might have great stuff and great potential, but he has yet to meet it.
Carlos Pena for FIVE years before finally breaking out in 2007.
In the meantime, Ted Lilly was and is a decent pitcher.
Beane's mistake was NOT trading Bonderman and Pena for Lilly. That was a perfectly good trade. A win.
The mistake was trading away Lilly for Bobby Kielty.
I'm not arguing your point at all
I just STRONGLY disagree with the Bonderman + Pena example. It is always trotted out as one of Beane's mistakes, when in reality, it was actually a good trade. Bonderman has yet to amount to anything and will hit FA soon. Pena took a long time to break out. In the meantime, Lilly was a valuable pitcher.
Re: I'm not arguing your point at all
I mean, on the one hand you've got four years of Ted Lilly, a slightly-above-average starter -- OPS+ around 104 for those four years. On the other hand, you've got six years of Carlos Pena, an above-average first baseman with a good glove. Admittedly, almost all of his above-averageness came in one year (and after the Tigers had stupidly given up on him), but does that really matter? It was meant to be a long-term trade for Detroit anyway.
It's not a terrible trade, I guess, but I bet Beane could take it back if he could. And Bonderman could still turn it into a steal next season.
I'm assesing the trade
Jeremy Bonderman could very well turn out to be a star, just like Sammy Sosa did: that is once he hits FA. Unfortunately, the A's can't afford players like Sosa or Bonderman. Bonderman has 5 years of service time or thereabouts. The A's can't afford guys who become stars when they hit FA. If he becomes a star, he won't be a steal. He's going to cost big money.
As for Pena, it's essentially the same thing. He has 4 years of service time. He finally broke out 5 years after he was traded. It's not accurate to say that he is an above average 1b. Until 2007, he was below average to average. Note, I'm not saying that he was bad. This matters to the A's for 2 reasons:
Firstly, the A's needed him to produce quickly. Not languish around for years before
Secondly, Beane has really never had problems finding 1b / DH types that put up an OPS+ of 100-110: Hatteberg originally, Dan Johnson, Jack Cust. Yeah, I know Cust wasn't simply average.
Also, any team, including the A's, could have had him after 2006, if they wanted him. He was free. Tampa initially signed him to a MINOR league contract.
Furthermore, the A's were a legitimate contending team at that point of the trade. They did need Lilly. After Beane foolishly traded Lilly for Kielty, he then foollshly signed All Star Mark Redman (tm) as a replacement, to a big (for the As) contract of $11M /3.
Re: The Value of Dirt
Howie I loved that transcript. Thanks.
Re: The Value of Dirt
by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 3:51 PM PST up reply actions
Beane
by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 15, 2007 7:50 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Beane
I know the budgeting over there have usually forced his hand . So most of his big moves are basically trading 2 years of established pitcher under team control for 10+ years of different players under team control. Shrewd ( I like shrewd) but not as risky as say a Williams trade. I also tend to wonder if he would have the guts to do a Williams type trade if the situation demands it. To me a really good GM has do more then excel at one facet of it.
And no one is prefect. That's part of why I look at the DBacks & Rockies and don't feel the Giants are necessarily doomed to 5+ years of last place. By keeping Cain & Lincecume don't you think that added extra fire under the Dbacks to get some one to team up with Webb? As a Giants fan the questions are did they end up giving too much? And will enough of their young MLB position player talent not flame out? Only time will tell on the last two.
I think Cain and Lincecum had no effect on Dbacks
Also rather than just looking at the Dbacks and Rockies, look at the Padres and Dodgers, who are also really good teams, and realize the Giants unless they plan on signing every FA infield bat they can find next year (Tex, Hudson, Furcal, Glaus I'd go with) are doomed for the next 2 years at least if not more.
by awesomer @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 15, 2007 10:27 AM PST up reply actions
Re: I think Cain and Lincecum had no effect
First you make a straw man out of my position. I said nothing, nor implied nothing about the Giants being a division winner in `08. That's all you and your problem baby. I do say by keeping outstanding talent you effect the choices other GM's make. Present your best case to disprove that please. Sarcasm and sophistry will get you laughs but no credit.
Second error is you assume both the best case scenario for all 4 other teams in the division and the worst case for the Giants.
A ) For example you realize the Rockies road offensive numbers for `07 (261BA/336OPS/395SLG) were not much different then the Giants home numbers (259BA/ 326OBP/382 SLG)? That's with a very hot final couple months for the Rockies. Anytime your offensive numbers remotely equal the Giants `07 offensive in any large sampling you better be worried.
B) The Dbacks front office is now on the clock . They will have to start making a lot of trading decisions in the next 2-3 seasons. They wait much more then that and the will face getting a low returns form a trade because the guys will be near free agency. Arizona is on a budget after their payroll fiasco with Johnson & Schilling when the league had to bail them out. So that's going to be a lot of choices to be made correctly for them to retain the hammer lock you are espousing. I am not saying it can't be done but it not like we are talking a long track record or having done it either so the question remains to be proven.
C) The Dodgers. Well they are the sleeping beast. They have the revenue to make errors with and keep young talent with. All I can say is who ever placed the hex on their front office 10 years ago please keep up the good work.
by daveinexile on Dec 15, 2007 11:26 AM PST up reply actions
Show me where I said you said that
"By keeping Cain & Lincecume don't you think that added extra fire under the Dbacks to get some one to team up with Webb?"
I said "No it didn't. It doesn't make sense at all." You haven't supported your claim still about why you think that should've lit a fire under the D-backs, because intuitively it doesn't make sense at all (least not to me). Yes, by keeping outstanding talent you do affect the other choices GM's make, thanks for pointing out that what other team's do affect the Dbacks decision process, mighty fine critical thinking you got going there.
That said unless you think the Giants are going to be any good why should the Dbacks be worried.
As for my other point:
2007 NL West OPS+
Colorado: 103
San Diego: 101
Los Angeles: 93
Arizona: 89
San Francisco: 89
2007 NL West ERA+
Arizona: 114
Colorado: 111
Los Angeles: 109
San Diego: 108
San Francisco: 106
I hadn't even looked at ERA+ yes but damn, does that only help my argument. Now look at each team's current team and their farm system and tell me which ones look better for the next 2-3 years like I said. If you can pick the Giants over any of those teams more power to you, but I certainly can't.
by awesomer @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 15, 2007 11:46 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Show me where I said you said that
As for why I was saying Cain & Lincume effect other gm's look at the structure of you other posts. You cite the personal in other systems. So why assume other systems are ignorant of the Giants? It's a unsound logic. If the structure works one way it works both ways or its unsound. You can't have your cake and eat it too.
Now the ERA+ & OPS+ that is more like it. Thanks. I`ll see them and offer head to head records as a counter to why I am not seeing a Royals or Pirates like residency in the cellar. I only said last place finishes for 5+ years are not realistic. I am not claiming `08 or `09 are years the Giants are contending for the division lead. Never had. So in the end, for '08, I don't think we are too far apart on that.
I can lay out scenarios were the Giants might finish a head of a team in `08 but it would have to do with things going right for the Giants and wrong for someone else. It would also mean the Giants close the gap with the Padre's ( 4- 14 last year) while staying around 500 for the season series' ( 8-10 ,with in a game of 500, for each other division foe in `07) of the other division rivals and the over .500 clubs in the NL East & NL Central ( 16-21 in `07 which is close to the rate of wins vs. non Padre division foes).
The later two parts is what the did last year despite no established roles in the Pen for most of the season and an offense that should have had its picture on a milk carton. . In fact it backs up my assertion that you are unduly playing down the level of the Giants chances to improve themselves. Again though I don't think that makes the Giants a division contender for `08.
Re: Show me where I said you said that
by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2007 1:08 PM PST up reply actions
They've been winning so much forever?
They can't really afford to keep the good picks they create when they're paid 18 mil per for 7 years by moron GMs?
They've been injured to hell recently?
by awesomer @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 15, 2007 10:23 AM PST up reply actions
Re: They've been winning so much forever?
The Tejada/Chavez choice for retaining talent. That is the one chance he has been given to retain his help. Not exactly a large sample pool to judge on so to me if he can judge and retain late 20's MLB talent is yet to be proven or disproved as well.
I do give Beane credit for being flexible enough to think injured players were the under valued market the last couple years. It did not turn out well but at least he was not entrenched in one method of thinking.
by daveinexile on Dec 15, 2007 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
The one thing you are giving
He has done MLBers for MLBers swaps. Arthur Rhodes and All Star Mark Redman (TM) for Jason Kendall.
As I pointed out above, Ted Lilly for Bobby Kielty, which was IMO one of his worst moves as As GM.
He has also traded prospects for MLBers: Bonderman + Pena for Lilly, Teahen for Dotel.
Re: The one thing you are giving
Just because he took
It was a stoopid move from the start. Injuries are not random statistical variation. Just because statheads don't understand something, in this case, physical conditioning, doesn't mean that it is just random statistical variation.
Re: Just because he took
About a week back there as a great little side discussion on the economic value of a players difference of replacement when the difference is defensive compared to offensive. I think Beane just figured at the then current rates for injured players were very attractive.
Re: The one thing you are giving
Re: The Value of Dirt
If we get a knockout offer for Sanchez, go ahead. That's unlikely to happen and his value is lower than it should be for the reasons UleashTheGore outlined.
I agree that Sanchez should start the season in the Fresno rotation. I think he will do well there. Starting will help him develop as a pitcher whether his future is in a MLB bullpen or as a starter. He then becomes a great insurance policy against injury to one of the starters, or allows us to trade one of the starters at midseason, or nice midseason trade bait himself.
Re: The Value of Dirt
by daveinexile on Dec 14, 2007 10:46 AM PST up reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
vs Embree
Embree probably had Sanchez-like upside when he was 22 and struck out 30% of the batters he faced in high A as a starter, much what Sanchez was doing at that age, but a level lower. Embree, however, was rushed to the majors and (I assume) got hurt, as he missed the next year and never managed the same K rates again.
Sanchez was similarly rushed in his age-23 year, but managed the same stellar 30% K rates in AA and AAA, though not the majors. Last year, he worked his MLB K% up above 25%. That's good. The full list of NL pitchers with 50+ IP who did better is Marmol, Saito, Cruz, Cordero, Johnson, Lidge, Broxton, Valverde, Turnbow, Miller, Wagner, Myers, and Peavy. That's it. Sanchez is already in pretty nice company. His problem is walks.
If he can bring his walks down, keep his Ks up and start, he's immediately a solid mid-rotation starter. Those are three big ifs, but the potential is there.
I would never deal him as a throwin, but given what even relievers get paid these days, he's tradeable for more. Sanchez for Votto, platoon split and all? Sure, assuming the Reds don't land Bedard. Sanchez for Matsui or other market-value bat? No; why give up that upside for nothing but a fully priced hitter?
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That said, I'd be OK with it.
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I love Sanchez's potential. I love it as much as the next guy. I overvalue it as much as the next fan. The k rate is gaga. The fastball is lava hot. But he's a ticking time bomb with one and a half pitches and no history of stamina. It's Sanchez's upside and his peripherals that will net us something shiny in a trade (don't expect something shiny AND glittery, you greedy gusses!). It is the fact that he is an arm thrower with no body mass who has never thrown more than 40 innings for the Giants without getting sore or just regular hurt (that's based on memory and possibly exaggeration, not fact).
I have absolutely no confidence in this guy's ability to be a starter long term. I have lots of confidence in him as a bullpen arm, but we can still likely get a return on him from a team that thinks he can start. And that's not a return to sneeze at, starter's return.
That's that. To answer the question directly, I think that Sanchez's perceived value is actually higher than Lowry's right now. That's not to say anything great about the perceived value of either one, but I think we'll end up getting more back for Snatch than "Sell Low-ry."
That's how I feel. I love the guy, but he's never going to be a major league starter without some major changes to either his training regimen or his mechanics, and it's kind of too late for either one to make a useful difference. Trade him now, before the rest of the league figures it out.
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'arm thrower with no body mass?' Skinny pitchers 'throw' with their bodies, too. Velocity comes from your legs and trunk. Sanchez's 'arm throwing' is indeed a problem, but it's evidenced by his control issues. His arm is as durable as any other young pitcher's -- not.
'never thrown more than 40 innings..without getting sore or just regular hurt' He put in 125 IP in 2005 as a starter in low A, and I don't believe he got hurt.
'he's never going to be a major league starter without some major changes' Replace 'never' with 'probably not' and drop the 'changes' clause entirely. He's a young, unestablished pitcher. He will probably flame out or have his arm fall off, full stop. That's just what you expect from anyone who hasn't shown he can handle starting in the majors. Sanchez's hasn't. Then again, neither has Homer Bailey, and I don't see the Reds tossing him into a trade as a throwin. Neither should the Giants Sanchez.
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And I don't know why I ever even write exaggerated statements anymore. Even when I explain that I am exaggerating, somebody has to go and quote me and prove my exaggeration wrong. Isn't that the point of an exaggeration?
Still, the difference between "as likely to get hurt as the next guy" and "a sure thing to get hurt" is probably the difference between wanting him to stay and wanting him gone, respectively. I've given my reasons for thinking he will absolutely be injured if he ever takes on a starter's workload full time. He has bad mechanics, doesn't have enough body to absorb the abuse, and he has a rich history of dl trips and soreness just in the last two years. He just scares me, is all.
And Homer Bailey has thrown over 100IP each of the last 3 years and has had a starter's workload pretty much the whole entire time. I can't say I think he's a great comparison when we're talking about being worried about workload.
by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
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by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 12:48 PM PST up reply actions
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I fisked your post not because I disagreed with its conclusions, but because it uniformly didn't make sense. Your reply does make sense: Sanchez is an elevated risk because of his history of arm soreness. Absolutely true. But the folderol about his size and motion are hooey. Lots of pitchers with nice-looking mechanics break down; lots of stocky pitchers break down; lots of pitchers break down, period. I've seen essenaitlly no work suggesting physical type affects durability. However the data do suggest that risk factors include throwing hard, overuse, and inexperience, the latter probably more because experienced pitchers are those who have proven their motions are mechanically sound. Bailey's 100 IP don't do much for me versus Sanchez's 50IP. Bailey in five years with 750 injury-free IP will absolutely be somewhat predictive of his continued future health.
Re: The Value of Dirt
As far as body type goes, I'm afraid to say I don't have a reference of study to back up the assertion. I think it makes logical sense that a guy with less on his frame will suffer more physical abuse from doing the same amount of work, and I'm pretty sure that a lot of scouting is done with that in mind, but I'm not interested in quibbling over that. It may or may not have any credence. I believe it does, but that hardly means it doesn't.
But yes, more than anything else Jonathan Sanchez's track record is what scares me. Mechanics and size are all only ultimately speculative, but his injury history is concrete evidence of elevated risk. Without the history, I wouldn't have any reason to be afraid of the other things, however justly.
by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 2:43 PM PST up reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
That sentence doesn't even remotely follow logically. Just pretend that it means what it is obviously supposed to mean.
by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 2:45 PM PST up reply actions
this may be a stretch

by the degenerate on Dec 15, 2007 9:54 AM PST up reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
Re: The Value of Dirt
I would see what the interest was. There is no hurry to move him, and no loss to keep him and see what develops.
It's is an organizational strength, though (young pitching) so if I could get some position players that were close to ML/high potential I would probably trade him. I would also trade him, or include him with a package for a solid veteran 3B/1B that was under contract for a few years.
Summary: I would be a good GM.
Aside, I have literally NO idea if he would be better as a starter or reliever. I can only hope as acting "good" GM, that I would have faith in my coaching staff + scouts to make this decision correctly.
Re: The Value of Dirt
Re: The Value of Dirt
He has a good arm and good stuff, however, and I'd certainly be willing to trade him to another team that thinks they can figure him out. I wouldn't give him away, he still has a high ceiling, so he should return a B level prospect or be a part of a package for an A-level prospect, perhaps one who is perhaps being blocked by an all-star or by wrongheaded Giants style pro-veteran management.
by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 14, 2007 2:27 PM PST reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
by GaryEdmundCarter on Dec 14, 2007 3:10 PM PST reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
Re: The Value of Dirt
by GaryEdmundCarter on Dec 14, 2007 4:51 PM PST up reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
Re: The Value of Dirt
That what happens when other GMs are blinded by The Enchanter.
Re: The Value of Dirt
Viz http://baseball.bornbybits.com/php/combined_tool.php?pit=456043&bat=0&type=-1&result=-1& amp;count=-1&r_spd=1&spd=-1&r_brx=1&brx=-100&r_brz=1&brz=-100&l_b=0 vs http://baseball.bornbybits.com/php/combined_tool.php?pit=490063&bat=0&type=-1&result=-1& amp;count=-1&r_spd=1&spd=-1&r_brx=1&brx=-100&r_brz=1&brz=-100&l_b=0
Here I prefer keeping Sanchez and trading Garza, but for an equal-size package, I probably trade Sanchez based on the walks alone.
Re: The Value of Dirt
by E Ticket on Dec 14, 2007 9:26 PM PST reply actions
Update to Rowand park factors
What you get is no change to batting average. Four more singles, no change in doubles and triples and four less home runs and one more walk. There is no change to batting average. One more point of OBP and perhaps the biggest change is 20 less points of slugging percentage.
vr, Xei
Re: The Value of Dirt
I suspect he's seen as valuable enough that we can get back something useful. A lefty with good velocity, experience starting and relieving and a nice strikeout rate should get some attention, I think.
I seriously think the Reds ought to be looking at both Sanchez and Lowry to fill out the back end of their rotation or improve their bullpen.
Re: The Value of Dirt
Re: The Value of Dirt
Re: The Value of Dirt
by spartan25 on Dec 15, 2007 9:01 PM PST reply actions
Sanchez Supporter
I really hope he's given a chance to start this year. I think the Giants can afford to see what he's got in the rotation, if his arm strength and endurance are ready, if not, they could either let him start in AAA or baby him for the first few months while he builds strength.
I wrote a piece on him in September of while I like Sanchez, you can read it here if you're interested.
Re: The Value of Dirt
Questions:
- Are the Giants better off keeping Lowry and Sanchez now and opening the season with Ortmeier at 1B and Feliz re-signed to play 3B?
- Are they better off depleting the rotation and bullpen by sending Lowry and Sanchez along with perhaps Ortmeier to the Reds for Encarnacion and Votto?
- Or are they better off sending one or both of the first two and Winn to the White Sox to get Konerko and Crede?
Re: The Value of Dirt
Door #2: I am not convinced the Reds would move Vatto without a large profit. I also think its very likely that kind of package would get the O's attention. So I see the Giants chances on a #2 being rather slim as long as Bedard is on the block.
Door #3. I view Crede as Pedro like. Usually better OBP and a bit younger but not necessarily as durable and no were as position flexible. I believe Crede is a free agent next off season. If you present a good case he could "bounce' back to the tune of a "b" list Free agent I could be easily talked into accepting the move. Otherwise he is a giant "meh" to me.
Konerko is interesting. He has 3 more years at 12 mill each, a limited No Trade clause ( 6 teams) and would be a free agent at 35 so its possible he could get compensation picks down the road if held onto that long. He his a middle of the order thunder. It have to come down to costs.
Re: The Value of Dirt
Perhaps the best play is to move Frandsen to 3B for this year, let Durham play out his contract at least until the trading deadline, and focus their remaining efforts on how to improve at 1B. It seems that they are not comfortable with opening the season with a Ortmeier/Aurilia platoon at 1B, and keep talking about moving Fred Lewis in any trade, so we may see them deal with 1B using some of these pieces along with Lowry/Sanchez.
I agree that the Reds would send the O's whatever they need to in order to get Bedard, so the Giants' ability to get help from the Reds for 1B/3B is now hostage to those developments.
Re: The Value of Dirt
I don't even want to get started on Durham's use on the roster. Obviously Botchy will not sit him unless at gun point so I would much rather see him set free of the Giants roster. Move Durham's playing time around instead and lets see if Frandsen has it in him to play second well on a regular bases and ( if feeling ambitious) can pick up the foot work at SS well enough to be a back up there. Durham can't possibly be part of the Giants `09 and forward plans so use him as the off road beater rig and stop trying to Sanchez up a player who could be useful beyond `08.
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I love the idea of Konerko in a Giants uni; Crede not so much. But I don't think the Giants match up well with the White Sox as trading partners. Even though a Winn and Lowery/Sanchez trade might be a fair one, I think they would want a better outfielder than Winn for Konerko in return.
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As for getting rid of him, I still thought up until the Winter Meetings that there would be AL East interest in both Durham and Roberts, but nothing came of that. Frandsen is a so-so option, and is only in play because his time is now. With Vizquel set at SS until at least the 2008 trading deadline, and if you slot Frandsen at 2B by default, who are the best options for 1B/3B outside of the division that cost us the least? Should they take another look at guys like Texas's Blalock since Texas is always looking for pitching?
Re: The Value of Dirt
I think Frandsen has the potential to be better than so-so. But the only way to find out is to give him consistent playing time at 2b.
The 3b options are depressing to think about. I could suffer through 2008 with Feliz at 3b I suppose, but only for 1 year.
Re: The Value of Dirt
Judging by how Williams shopped Garland & Vazquez that last half year and this is the first I have heard of Williams listening on Konerko I would imagine the asking price is high for him. I would love to be wrong but it would fit his most recent model.
Blaylock's splits really discourage me from giving up any talent for him.
As a for the Sexton theory I could get make my piece with that gamble easily enough. I feel for Mariner fans for I view Bavasi as one of the very few Gm's more maddening to pilot a franchise then Sabean. So an attack of the rational kind is a bit of over due for Bavasi but I would not count on it.
If Sabean must keep Durham then he starts using a first base glove spring training and can easy the playing time off of Ortmeire and be there encase Frandsen flames out and Velez ( or other farm hand) is not deemed close enough .
I really think the Phillies & the Giants are watching the Cardinals & the A's closely. If you are going to pay ,in terms of talent, Chavez and Rolen seem the most likely gambles to pay off left until the Bedard situation plays out more.
If nothing shakes out you have the ability to platoon a bunch of bargain bin dives at 3rd with Aurilia. To some degree at first as well. Enisburg looks useful in that he can help at either diamond spot and should only cost money and a roster slot for a season. My hart is not set on Ensburg but if going the dumpster drive and not trying a young player reclamation project he would be my first choice.
by daveinexile on Dec 17, 2007 11:14 AM PST up reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
I, like others, would take a shot at Sexson for a year, especially if we could move Durham as part of the same offseason. And if you know that you will have your own in-house options for 3B in 2010 and possibly 1B as well, and want to keep the fans interested until then, I would also consider Rolen if the Cards really wanted to move him cheaply, which seems to be the case every time I read a new quote from LaRussa. I just think that Magowan is too tight-fisted to write $26 million in checks for both Rolen and Sexson this year, yet he has no problem paying $15 million for Durham and Roberts.
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I think the bigger problem is Sabean willing to eat humble pie? And is he willing to accept the perceived damage cutting a veteran might have when bargaining with free agents in the future? When he can answer "yes" to both then the Giants might be getting some were positive rather quickly.
There I an upside to no Sexson trade. Bochey can't try and play him 1100+ innings if he is not on the roster. It is not much but hey its something! ;)
by daveinexile on Dec 17, 2007 11:41 AM PST up reply actions
Re: The Value of Dirt
Re: The Value of Dirt
Like I said I really think the Omar or Feliz decision has been made. I can't see both.
Durham is a 36 year old platoon level player that only plays one N.L available position at this point. If Sabean insists on making that much lemonade the only way to do it is hand Durham a first baseman glove in spring training and tell Frandsen to go get them at second. If Bochy benches Frandsen (applies to Ortmeire as well) a week or two into the season then Bee- Awetch slap him tell he looks like the world's largest bobble head doll.
Of coarse this will never happen. We will get 500 AB's from Durham, 400 from Omar, and about 800 Ab's from 2-3 scrap heap veterans over 34. It's the Sabean way.
Re: The Value of Dirt
If it were up to me, I'd tell Durham to start taking snaps at first and third, because he's not going to be a starter, and if he wants to play at all, he's going to have to be a "super" sub. Franny starts at second. That's always seemed like such a no-brainer since Frandsen can actually field his position.
Re: The Value of Dirt
The biggest problem ( in my opinion) signing them both is it does nothing for the potentional time bomb of replacing the entire left side of the infield in one offseason. That puts the club back in the exact position is was last off season were you are madly scrambling for any moving body ( Voodoo ritual produced or not) just to take innings.
I have to agree with your Frandsen take. It's not like Druham has ever been a elite rated defender at second for an entire season...let alone his career. Besides with another season of this jacking around and Sabean will have put Frandsen in a very similar position he had Linden in last spring. That is not a good thing. If Frandsen is going to flame out or shows to be suitable only for a back up M.I. role it needs to proven so they can go forward with other roster moves next off season.
Re: The Value of Dirt
Re: The Value of Dirt
by daveinexile on Dec 18, 2007 11:28 AM PST up reply actions
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Re: The Value of Dirt
by daveinexile on Dec 17, 2007 11:10 AM PST up reply actions

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