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Around SBN: Jim Irsay: We Can Make It Work With Peyton Manning

The Value of Dirt

As I wrote before, I'm a little surprised that the Yankees preferred to talk about a Sanchez-for-Matsui deal rather than a Lowry-for-Matsui deal. Sanchez can't really control his fastball, and his breaking ball works only in half of his appearances. Forget about a third pitch; it's gonna be a while.

Unless, of course, you're the GM of another team who happens to be reading this. In that case, Sanchez is just like a left-handed Lincecum, but he has a better nickname.

I love the minor league strikeout rate. Heck, I love the major league strikeout rate. But I ultimately see his ceiling as a late-inning reliever. Alan Embree at his best, for example. I'd love to be wrong.

This is why I'm willing to throw Sanchez's name into just about any deal. Lowry for Joey Votto? No way the Reds agree to that. Lowry and Sanchez for Votto? I don't know if the Reds would agree, but I sure can't think of a reason why the Giants would refuse that trade. Well, other than a fear that Votto's left-handed power wouldn't play in Mays Field and that his scary platoon splits would severely limit his value.

I'm getting off track.

Sanchez's value is:

a. A good position player prospect back in a straight-up trade. (i.e. Votto for Sanchez)

b. A good position player back as part of a package. (Sanchez, other, and other for Votto)

c. A veteran position player with talent and an iffy contract. (Matsui)

d. Far less than we're giving him credit for.

Open Sanchez Valuation Thread.

Poll
?
a
22 votes
b
66 votes
c
15 votes
d
13 votes
Other (explain)
2 votes

118 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 138 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Re: The Value of Dirt
The correct spin as Sabean tries to trade him is to say that Sanchez is the next Joe Nathan. No, he hasn't had a breakout year like Nathan in 2003, but on the plus side, he's only 25 and he hasn't had major shoulder surgery. Voila!
"There's not enough bases out there to intentionally walk everybody you want to." - Grady Little

by leftymalo on Dec 14, 2007 9:41 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I think Sanchez's value is closer to option A than B.  However, a player like Votto may have increased value considering what he did in the majors this year (but, if the Reds are willing.....).

I think Sanchez for someone like Clevelend's Jordan Brown/Michael Aubrey + another prospect seems about right to me.  

I just wish Sabean was willing to take chances on young players.

by Bib12 @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 14, 2007 9:47 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
He has taken chances with young players:  Nathan, Ainsworth, Williams, Cain, Lowry, Lincecum, Correia, Hennessey, Niekro, Ellison, Mueller, Ortiz, Estes, et al.  They all were given a chance to be a starter and some succeed and others don't.

The main problem, which you are alluding to, is that the Giants haven't had many POSITION players worth giving a chance to.  

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 14, 2007 10:32 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Grouping pitchers and position players into one group doesn't give a good tell.

If you have a starting five, and a guy gets injured, you have to get someone up to start.  Relievers are often a risky bunch to move to the rotation, because you need to limit their pitch counts.  So you almost have to go to the farm, out of necessity.  That's how guys like Lowry, Cain, and Lincecum got their first starts with the parent club in the first place.

But with position players, you can replace a guy on your major league roster with a sub on your 25 man roster.  If you call the farm and bring someone up, you don't necessarily have to get them into the mix immediately.

That being said, I don't feel like a chance was really given to Niekro.  If I recall, he was given the starting job essentially by default, but he had a really short leash.  I remember he started out pretty hot but lost his stroke (due to injury?), and was sent back to the minors to find it.  He DID find it, but lost his starting job to Mark Sweeney, who wasn't that good.  He wasn't ever given a chance to get his job back.  Then in spring training, he mashed the crap out of the ball, but still ended up third on the depth chart, almost never played, was DFA'd and labeled a bust.  If I'm not remembering this correctly, please correct me.  But to me, that's not a fair shake.

Nor was Ellison really given a fair shake.  Sabes always seems like he can't wait to get a savvy veteran center fielder, and the next thing you know, no more Ellison.

Bill Mueller I'll give you.  But even Aurilia and Feliz, it took years to finally crack the starting lineup.  And I think you're right, they haven't developed many position players worth giving a chance to.  But I felt like they should have given some guys a chance, instead of overpaying someone just because they're a savvy vet.  That's just me.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Dec 14, 2007 1:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
You've forgotten that Niekro looked lost at the plate just before DFA.

As for Grant's thoughts:
I go for Option A. Votto is said to be a Jeff Conine  type (ie. he'll always hit, but lumbering in the field). Nevertheless, Votto or even Encarnacion (who  doesn't set me afire) would make sense; maybe both, if you deal Lowry and Sanchez. It solves so many problems and assures us that Pedro won't return.

Another favorite dream is Sanchez for Boston's Brandon Moss. Check him out!

Don't believe everything you think.

by wcovington on Dec 14, 2007 3:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Niekro had 17 at bats and started three games before he was DFA'd.  He also was buried behind Klesko, Aurilia, and Sweeney on the depth chart.

Considering he hit .340 in Spring Training, is it really fair to say he looked lost at the plate before being DFA'd?

Seriously, I'm curious to know what you all think.  Am I crazy?

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Dec 14, 2007 3:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Are you sure you're not thinking of Linden looking lost? Niekro only had 18 PAs in 2007 before they cut him. They weren't very impressive, but I don't remember him looking as hapless as Linden did.
All your signature are belong to us.

by EliminateMe on Dec 14, 2007 4:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
That seems like who he's thinking of.  But Linden didn't really look good enough to be considered only lost, I thought.  I mean, he looked downright terrible out there.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Dec 14, 2007 4:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
There's a big difference between his perceived value and his actual value. I think he's got monster upside, and would want a really exciting young hitter for him. Better idea? Hang on to him.
Tim Lincecum is the light and truth, and I will enjoy becoming pure energy when he determines it is time to ascend.

by HughG16 on Dec 14, 2007 9:49 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
If the rumor that the Mets offered Carlos Gomez for Sanchez last year is true, that might be a good starting point.

by KCE on Dec 14, 2007 9:49 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Mets would turn that trade down.  They like Gomez more than that.  They'd need an established player for him.  
I don't see the need for Gomez on the Giants, he has basically no power at all.

by Andrew @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 14, 2007 10:01 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Some Mets advisors liken Gomez to Jose Reyes in CF.  I think most people would take that (if true that is, that opinion is not a consensus, but was reported in last year's Baseball Prospectus 2007)
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 14, 2007 10:33 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Gomez hit .230 last year.  In 125 at bats, he had five total extra base hits.  I don't see any way he ever reaches Jose Reyes type numbers.  Speed?  Yes.  Production at the plate?  I doubt it.  I don't see him doing much that Davis couldn't do.

by Andrew @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 14, 2007 10:53 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
The common refrain I've heard about Gomez is that he's all tools - in other words, very fast, very athletic, etc.; no "baseball skills" (swing needs work, routes to fly balls need work, etc.). He's young though, so if nurtured in the minors and not rushed he can develop the baseball stuff.

My big fear is that the Giants would trade for him and immediately stick him out in right fie-- sorry, I forgot for a moment who we're talking about. Gomez to the Giants = Gomez for 2010 ROY!

by GiantFanInExile on Dec 14, 2007 11:21 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
That was a year ago.  I just think they wouldn't do it now.

by Andrew @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 14, 2007 1:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I'm a big fan of Sanchez.  But seeing as how this is the Giants, his only value is as a trade chip.  So, now that is the limit of my contribution here.  I really have no idea how much major league GM's value Jonathan Sanchez.  I know how much I value him.  But I also take into account how much Sabean values him.  And taking those two things together, I would trade him and Lowry for Votto + something else (perhaps some andies mints, those are good).  

I think he's worth more than that, but seeing as how he won't get a shot here and seeing as how we really need somebody like Votto, I think he's worth part of a package to get him.

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Dec 14, 2007 9:52 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I have to agree that I really have no idea what Sanchez's perceived value is to other GMs. This fact makes me inclined to say that you don't trade him unless you are wowed by an offer.

Sanchez for all his faults has some pretty big upside. If he realizes it and you have already traded him for spare parts then you have made a big mistake (Sabean can't afford to make anymore of those). If he doesn't realize his potential and you kept him, well... you can at least explain it away by saying nobody made an adequate offer.

I HATE BRIAN SABEAN!

by camwoody on Dec 14, 2007 10:02 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
If I was GM, I keep him.  I am a big fan of Sanchez.  But I just don't see him getting a shot here.  This organization is just too much about the veteran savvy to give a fair shot to it's young players, even when they should be rebuilding.  You have to either have extreme tenacity (Aurilia/Feliz) or extreme talent (Cain/Lincecum) to stick here.  Sometimes when you finally seem to stick after many trials and being jerked around and finally have a breakout season and there's a position that you would be perfect to fill, you get traded away (Nathan).

That's just the way it is here.  So if we can fill a hole that actually needs to be filled using a guy who doesn't really have a place, I'm okay with it.

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Dec 14, 2007 10:36 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
This is absurd.  Niekro got a shot, a hell of a shot actually.  Hennessey, Correia?  They were brought up and they've stuck.  Of course they've stuck, look at their ERAs - steady improvement.  Look at Sanchez's ERA - 5.88 for Christ's sake, 3rd worst on the team, worse than Russ Ortiz, worse than Jack Taschner, worse than Scott Atchison.  He has more goddamned walks than any  reliever on the staff except Taschner.  All's he has to do is fucking perform.

by allfrank on Dec 14, 2007 11:27 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Sanchez's walk rate is his problem, but he's been a 4.5-ERA arm with 6-ERA luck.

by wcw on Dec 14, 2007 11:39 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Great, Niekro got less than 300 at bats in 2005 because J.T. Snow got injured and they had no one else to play first.  You'll notice that Jason Ellison got more at-bats than Niekro that year.  And why?  Because Marquis Grissom didn't give the Giants what they expected out of him.  When the Giants have no where else to turn they stick their prospects in there.  Often times that means the prospects will be pinch hitters/runners/late inning replacements/someone to spell the vets when their arthritis acts up.  In 2006, despite not having anyone else to play first, Niekro got less at-bats than the year before.  Mark Sweeney had more at-bats.  Then they traded for Shea Hillenbrand.  It would have been better for Niekro had he just stayed in AAA in 2005 and 2006.  

Hennessey and Correia stuck because they persevered.  They showed tenacity.  They were also a victom of the Giant's short leash on their prospects.  Maybe Sanchez will be able to show that same tenacity.  Maybe he won't.  

But the point is, he shouldn't.  His development shouldn't have been sacrificed just because the Giants needed a left-hander out of the bullpen.

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Dec 14, 2007 12:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Calm down Frank, you're scaring Timmy Lincecum.

by GaryEdmundCarter on Dec 14, 2007 1:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I OBJECT! (read the sig) - I think he can be a good no 3 starter type, and the K-rate is a very promising part of it.
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.

by Aadik on Dec 14, 2007 9:56 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
btw... I love the fact that everyone is insisting on calling AT&T Park "Mays Field."  That's what it should be called.  That's what I'm going to call it.

Has anyone heard an announcer or radio personality call it this yet?

Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?

by shikantaza on Dec 14, 2007 9:58 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Bruce Jenkins does. There's a website, too.
Tim Lincecum is the light and truth, and I will enjoy becoming pure energy when he determines it is time to ascend.

by HughG16 on Dec 14, 2007 3:31 PM PST up reply actions  

He hasn't been given a fair chance
The poor guy has been thrown back and forth from MLB to AAA, from starter to reliever. His situation up to this point has been really crappy, and I'd be pretty peeved if I was him. I don't think other teams value him as highly as we might, as evidenced by his mediocre major league career so far. I think our best option would be to just decide what he's going to do, start or relieve. Start him in AAA if you're going to give Correia the 5th spot...if Correia does well, then see if we can trade him for someone useful. If he does poorly, bring Sanchez up and let him know that he will be a starter and don't screw with his head and his arm. With Bumgarner, Sosa, and Co. (great law firm name, btw) coming up within a couple years, if Sanchez does or doesn't work out, at least you'd know you gave a guy with great potential a chance to succeed.

by UnleashTheGore on Dec 14, 2007 10:00 AM PST reply actions  

Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
I would say that Sanchez is a lot like Correia - jerked around too much and miscast by the organization. I think both players remind me of Russ Ortiz - very good when their control is acceptable, but are going to have their games when they get hit because they are aren't on. [albeit, that is true for most pitchers, but I think moreso for some]Additionally, they seem to be able to work through their control issues better than most.

Mostly, I think they are both miscast as relievers and were harmed by a decision to make them relievers. Generally speaking, I would avoid converting a pitcher into a reliever until they proved that they can't hack it as a starter [either though injury or effectiveness]. Their 2 seam fastballs have such sharp movement that a third pitch is often not terribly necessary. But, the Giants decided that they need a third pitch to be effective as a starter. Then, they put them in the bullpen to develop that third pitch. But relievers don't often need that third pitch....

Had I been given plenary authority over baseball decisions, last years starting rotation would have been: Cain, Lowry, Lincecum, Correia, and Sanchez

[after Ortiz went down]

Of course, I never would have moved Sanchez to the pen in 2006.

Pedro Feliz would look great in Dodger Blue.

by irwin on Dec 14, 2007 10:23 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Presupposes that i wouldn't have signed him to begin with - even at market value
Pedro Feliz would look great in Dodger Blue.

by irwin on Dec 14, 2007 1:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Sanchez reminds me a lot more of brett tomko than russ ortiz... and that scares the crap out of me.

by bill swift on Dec 15, 2007 1:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Pfft. The three pitched at almost the same levels and ages around 22 through 24: A, AA and then both AAA and MLB (plus a few extra stops, but let's limit this to comps). Tomko put in a lot more innings, almost 400 IP those three years, vs about 300 for each of the other two. That's a good sign, all else equal, but makes Sanchez look more like Oritz. All three struck out more than they allowed hits, but Tomko was clearly the most hittable. Over the comparable period, K/H was 1.1 for him, 1.3 for Ortiz and 1.5 for Sanchez. By comparison, the Giants most-unhittable prospect lately, Lincecum, had a K/H of around 2.0, counting from his last NCAA season through 2007. A K/H of 1.5 is pretty good. Homers are always a worry, even when fans don't nickname you 'Bombko'. Tomko gave up about 1.0 HR/9 over this period, vs Ortiz's 0.7 and Sanchez's 0.6 (Lincecum 2006-7 == 0.6 HR/9). That rate is cause for concern with Tomko, and again, Sanchez is closer to (and better than) Ortiz. Walk rates are a lot kinder to Tomko. His comp walk rates were 2.7 BB/9, vs Ortiz's 4.9 (ick) and Sanchez's 3.3 (Lincecum: 4.1, almost as bad as Ortiz). Here Sanchez surprises; I think of his as a walk machine, but it appears he has simply been rushed. At comparable levels and ages, his control has been almost as good as Tomko's was. However, here he is unlike Ortiz. Tomko's K/BB similarly is kind. He has a nifty 3.1 K/BB in the comparable set, vs Ortiz's merely adequate 2.0. Sanchez, surprisingly, comes in with a 3.6 -- his stats are starting to look pretty good, if you assume his poorer showings at higher levels were due to his being rushed. That's not always a safe assumption. I am the first to say I expect Sanchez to blow up, but because he hasn't shown he is durable or has the stamina to start, not because he is anything like Tomko.

by wcw on Dec 16, 2007 9:06 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
wcw:

That's great stuff.  So with that in mind, if you are the GM, what do you do with Sanchez: trade him now; keep him as the #5 starter this year; or keep him to start the year in the pen on the big club?

by Buck Henry on Dec 16, 2007 7:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
It's all about what the market offers. Do the Reds offer Jay Bruce? Trade. Do the Yankees offer Scrub #3? Keep him. I would start him, though, whether at 3A or in the NL. To my mind, the 'pen is always and ever a fallback.

by wcw on Dec 16, 2007 9:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
I agree, being thrown between the MLB to AAA and from the rotation to the pen is unfair.  I hope the Giants can trade Lowry and give Sanchez a spot in next seasons rotation.

by Cainer on Dec 14, 2007 10:25 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
>being thrown between the MLB to AAA and from the rotation to the pen is unfair

there's too much being made of this. This is the rule, not the exception, for young pitchers. Only blue-chip studs like Cain, Hughes, Homer Bailey, etc get the red-carpet treatment right into a ML starting rotation. If Sanchez can't deal with a little uncertainty, maybe he doesn't have the mental makeup to be a long-time major leaguer.

"There's not enough bases out there to intentionally walk everybody you want to." - Grady Little

by leftymalo on Dec 14, 2007 10:46 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Really? Sanchez's promotions and demotions and shifts in role and mixed signals from the organization have been awfully frequent and extensive over the last two years -- significantly more so than what most aspiring pitchers go through, I would think.

It's hard to believe that a pitcher whose stuff is so inconsistent wouldn't benefit from an extended period of consistency and predictability in what the organization asks of him.

by Evan on Dec 14, 2007 11:16 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
I know guys like Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez bounced back and forth between starting and relieving when they hit the majors. Hasn't seemed to hurt Adam Wainwright so far. Joba Chamberlain could be another test, but my guess is he will be fine in whatever he does.

Good players tend to fight through possible obstacles.

by hammystyle on Dec 14, 2007 11:49 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Pedro pitched 107 innings in his first full season at 21.  Johan pitched 86 innings, also at 21.  Wainwright pitched 75.  

Jonathan Sanchez pitched 40 in 2006 and 52 last year.  And was bounced back and forth between starting and relief and AAA and MLB.  

Each of those guys had pretty consistent assignments.

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Dec 14, 2007 12:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Its fair to say that it would probly help his immediate development a bit if he was given one role and asked to accomplish it. However, I don't think its what is causing him to struggle, and long term its not going to be what makes or breaks him.

Johan Santana was actually bounced around a lot and really struggled his first couple years in the bigs. He got it together as a spot-starter/reliever and then within a year was a Cy Young. So hopefully Sanchez does something like that.

by hammystyle on Dec 14, 2007 4:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
Lefty, I love your blog and usually agree with you, but I'm going to have to disagree with you this time.

Not that I've ever been placed in the situation of starting vs. bullpen pitching (those couple years of pitching in Little League were mostly starting, mind you ;-) ), but from what I understand, starting is a whole different beast than relieving (pacing yourself as a starter, not relying on just 1 or 2 pitches, etc.). I think by moving Sanchez back and forth so much it's really screwed with his consistency.

I understand what you're saying (I think), that young guys should start in the pen and eventually become a starter. I can't necessarily disagree with that, but I think to switch back and forth can really be detrimental to the pitcher. It's one thing if it's a one-time switch from reliever to starter, but back and forth hurts him, I think.

by UnleashTheGore on Dec 14, 2007 11:29 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: He hasn't been given a fair chance
I thought being put in the 'pen was a pretty good thing for Correia.  He was WAY too wild as a starter initially, and he seemed to learn to be a better pitcher in the 'pen.  I thought it was a pretty solid move, and I think even Correia himself agrees about that.

Sanchez, however, has definitely been jerked around a little too much.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Dec 17, 2007 10:17 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I don't know the answer, but it seems to me that Sanchez is the sort of player we should be looking to acquire, not to trade away. There are so few high-ceiling players in the organization that it's worth holding onto even the longshots.

That said, he's not a good pitcher right now, so it's hard to imagine other teams giving us all that much for him.

by Evan on Dec 14, 2007 10:07 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Exactly.  This would be selling low.  He is a one pitch pitcher with poor to no control. Even a RP needs at least a second pitch he can throw consistently for strikes.  Sanchez is good enough that they will let him try to develop a 2nd or 3d pitch while in the majors.  But if it doesn't develop he doesn't have much value.
  Despite the fact he has low value, I would not object to trading him now - plenty of other guys have gone past him and he is far from a lock for the pen next year.  And by '09 we may well have several other more reliable options - meaning, it is a huge unknown whether he will ever raise his value.  

by allfrank on Dec 14, 2007 11:35 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I'm curious, where do you think the best place to develop a 2nd and 3rd pitch is?  
Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Dec 14, 2007 12:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
There is no way his trade value is as high as we as Giants fans perceive because we give greater weight to his upside.  That's just the nature of fans.  Other teams are going to see that he is not yet established, but will try to win the trade by asking for him as a "throw in" with another more established player.  I say hold on to him, keep him in a single role, and don't trade him unless he increases his value and you actually solve a problem with our offense (corner infield).

by out machine on Dec 14, 2007 10:08 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
if the reason that other GM's don't want Lowry is his peripherals, then they should love Sanchez. His K numbers show that he has the potential to be an overpowering pitcher. The reason the Yankees prefer Sanchez over Lowry though is pretty obvious. They have three young starters and would rather have help in their bullpen than their rotation. I have also heard that they're leery about Lowry pitching in the AL East with his high walk total and all of those powerful hitters. I think he would actually do fairly well in the American League because he won't have to face pitchers anymore. They hit him harder than middle of the order guys.
Bring me just about anyone, you moron Sabean!!

by rxmeister on Dec 14, 2007 10:14 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
It is not just Giants fans.  Sanchez was rated our #2 prospect for 2007 by Baseball America.  And BA authors John Manuel and Will Lingo rated him among the Top 50 prospects in baseball for 2007 (40th and 45th respectively; they had Votto 45th and unranked, respectively).  Baseball Prospectus rated him 73rd in their 100 list (Votto was 53rd).  
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 14, 2007 10:43 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I bet you Mr. Towers or Mr. Beane (across the bay) would like him quite a bit.  He fit the profile of the type of overlooked/misdeveloped player they both like to rescue and give a caring home to.

by daveinexile on Dec 14, 2007 10:12 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Hmm you expect Beane to actually pay for something?  Of coarse he did pay  to have Kendall moved out of town but usually he is a man that leaves  bruises on  quarters before he puts them into the vending machine.

Semi seriously though if those two (Towers  and Beane) like a player odds are you should as well.

by daveinexile on Dec 14, 2007 10:44 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Sarcasm aside, I pretty much would never deal with Beane. Way too scary, even if you think you're getting a steal, his valuation of players is crazy good.

by UnleashTheGore on Dec 14, 2007 11:31 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I have a transcript of a conversation Sabes and Beane had right here:

http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/comments/2007/11/20/17712/431/39#39

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 11:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Oh come now
Many a GM has made deals with Beane and not regretted it.

Beane's trade record is actually fairly balanced. The Mulder trade is balanced out by the Hudson trade, for example.

Beane's strength is being able to dig up underrated players like Ellis, Cust, Gaudin, either as minor trades or as "throw ins" to bigger trades.

by rfloh on Dec 14, 2007 1:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Like the way he dumped Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Pena and Eric Byrnes?  Or do you mean signing Jerome Williams after the Giants and Cubs were done with him?  Maybe you mean the Tim Hudson trade.

Seriously, I love Billy Beane too, but he has too high a reputation among some fans.  I think it's because in general a lot of us like the risks he takes better than the ones Sabean takes, so we give Billy a lot more slack.  But he's way way far from bulletproof.

by achiappanza on Dec 14, 2007 3:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Wait, Jerome Williams signed with the A's?????

by Evan on Dec 14, 2007 4:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Yup, and released not that long after.

by achiappanza on Dec 14, 2007 8:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I'm never sure if people get the Jerome Williams was an A joke. It's probably a good four months old now.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 9:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
That joke will never ever ever ever get old.
Steve Kline: How okay is he, really? I would say he is pretty okay.

by groug on Dec 14, 2007 9:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Err,
have you actually looked at Jeremy Bonderman's stats? His career OPS+ is 93. 93. That is 4th starter territory. He has been over 100 once. ONCE.

Bonderman might have great stuff and great potential, but he has yet to meet it.

Carlos Pena for FIVE years before finally breaking out in 2007.

In the meantime, Ted Lilly was and is a decent pitcher.

Beane's mistake was NOT trading Bonderman and Pena for Lilly. That was a perfectly good trade. A win.

The mistake was trading away Lilly for Bobby Kielty.

by rfloh on Dec 15, 2007 1:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Err,
So you're conceding the point but arguing about examples?

by achiappanza on Dec 15, 2007 3:08 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not arguing your point at all
I certainly don't claim that Beane is a genius. Look through the rest of my posts on Beane in this thread.

I just STRONGLY disagree with the Bonderman + Pena example. It is always trotted out as one of Beane's mistakes, when in reality, it was actually a good trade. Bonderman has yet to amount to anything and will hit FA soon. Pena took a long time to break out. In the meantime, Lilly was a valuable pitcher.

by rfloh on Dec 16, 2007 12:01 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: I'm not arguing your point at all
Wait, really, you like the deal? The fact that Bonderman hasn't completely put things together yet means it's not an absolute steal, but I still think Detroit came out ahead.

I mean, on the one hand you've got four years of Ted Lilly, a slightly-above-average starter -- OPS+ around 104 for those four years. On the other hand, you've got six years of Carlos Pena, an above-average first baseman with a good glove. Admittedly, almost all of his above-averageness came in one year (and after the Tigers had stupidly given up on him), but does that really matter? It was meant to be a long-term trade for Detroit anyway.

It's not a terrible trade, I guess, but I bet Beane could take it back if he could. And Bonderman could still turn it into a steal next season.

by Evan on Dec 16, 2007 12:25 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm assesing the trade
from the standpoint of the A's: cheap team that won't sign most of its players.

Jeremy Bonderman could very well turn out to be a star, just like Sammy Sosa did: that is once he hits FA. Unfortunately, the A's can't afford players like Sosa or Bonderman. Bonderman has 5 years of service time or thereabouts. The A's can't afford guys who become stars when they hit FA. If he becomes a star, he won't be a steal. He's going to cost big money.

As for Pena, it's essentially the same thing. He has 4 years of service time. He finally broke out 5 years after he was traded.  It's not accurate to say that he is an above average 1b. Until 2007, he was below average to average. Note, I'm not saying that he was bad. This matters to the A's for 2 reasons:

Firstly, the A's needed him to produce quickly. Not languish around for years before

Secondly, Beane has really never had problems finding 1b / DH types that put up an OPS+ of 100-110: Hatteberg originally, Dan Johnson, Jack Cust. Yeah, I know Cust wasn't simply average.

Also, any team, including the A's, could have had him after 2006, if they wanted him. He was free. Tampa initially signed him to a MINOR league contract.

Furthermore, the A's were a legitimate contending team at that point of the trade. They did need Lilly. After Beane foolishly traded Lilly for Kielty, he then foollshly signed All Star Mark Redman (tm) as a replacement, to a big (for the As) contract of $11M /3.

by rfloh on Dec 17, 2007 7:29 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Its not that I think Beane makes one sided deals. He just gets more use for his club out of it  then usually gives  up. Especially when judging the use of young  unproven players.  I am not a cult of Beane member but credit were it is due. He knows how to judge the potentional and how they would fit on his team. Sure he makes mistakes  but never critical ones. That has is upside and its downside.

Howie I loved that transcript. Thanks.

by daveinexile on Dec 14, 2007 3:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I'm always happy to entertain. My only regret is that I didn't bother staying in character almost at all. Sabes has definite speech patterns (phraseology aside) I could have taken advantage of that could have better defined that character, and Beane's voice isn't particularly consistent either. Oh well, live and learn. Very good to see it's still amusing.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 3:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Beane
So, if Beane is such great talent evaluator, how come the A's, as an organization, are in such desperate straights that Billy felt he had to run up the white flag on the next 2-3 years and hold a firesale?

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 15, 2007 7:50 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Beane
Uh, budget constraints?

by zenbitz on Dec 15, 2007 8:16 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Beane
Well DrB that hits on the reason I am not a Cult of Beane member. I have not seen a lot of decisions were he successfully retains the talent he has.  

I know the budgeting over there have usually forced his hand . So most of  his big moves are basically trading 2 years of established pitcher under team control for 10+ years of different players under team control. Shrewd ( I like shrewd)  but not as risky as say a Williams trade. I also tend to wonder if he would have the guts to do a Williams type trade if the situation demands it. To me a really good GM has do more then excel at one facet of it.

 And no one is prefect.  That's part of why I look at the DBacks & Rockies and don't feel the Giants are necessarily doomed to 5+ years of last place. By keeping Cain & Lincecume don't you think that added extra fire under the Dbacks to get some one to team up with Webb?  As a Giants fan the questions are did they end up giving too much? And will  enough of their young MLB position player talent not flame out? Only time will tell on the last two.

by daveinexile on Dec 15, 2007 9:47 AM PST up reply actions  

I think Cain and Lincecum had no effect on Dbacks
They traded for Haren to improve their team plain and simple, why should they be concerned with those two when their team is not going to be contending anytime soon anyway?

Also rather than just looking at the Dbacks and Rockies, look at the Padres and Dodgers, who are also really good teams, and realize the Giants unless they plan on signing every FA infield bat they can find next year (Tex, Hudson, Furcal, Glaus I'd go with) are doomed for the next 2 years at least if not more.

by awesomer @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 15, 2007 10:27 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: I think Cain and Lincecum had no effect
Awesomer you make 2 logical errors.

First you  make a straw man out of my position. I said nothing, nor implied nothing about the Giants being a division winner in `08. That's all you and your problem baby. I do say by keeping outstanding talent you effect the choices other GM's make. Present your best case to disprove that please. Sarcasm and sophistry will get you laughs but no credit.

 Second error is you assume both the best case scenario for all 4 other teams in the division  and the worst case for the Giants.

    A ) For example you realize the Rockies road  offensive numbers for `07 (261BA/336OPS/395SLG) were not much different then the Giants  home numbers (259BA/ 326OBP/382 SLG)? That's with a very hot final couple months for the Rockies. Anytime your offensive numbers remotely equal the Giants `07 offensive in any large sampling you better be worried.

   B)  The Dbacks front office is now on the clock . They will have to start making a lot of trading decisions in the next 2-3 seasons.  They wait much more then that and the will face getting a low returns form a trade because the guys will be near free agency. Arizona is on a budget after their payroll fiasco with Johnson & Schilling when the league had to bail them out. So that's going to be a lot of choices to be made correctly for them to retain the hammer lock you are espousing. I am not saying it can't be done but it not like we are talking a long track record or having done it either so the question remains to be proven.

   C) The Dodgers. Well they are the sleeping beast. They have the revenue to make errors with and  keep young talent with.  All I can say is who ever placed the hex on their front office 10 years ago please keep up the good work.

by daveinexile on Dec 15, 2007 11:26 AM PST up reply actions  

Show me where I said you said that
You Said

"By keeping Cain & Lincecume don't you think that added extra fire under the Dbacks to get some one to team up with Webb?"

I said "No it didn't. It doesn't make sense at all." You haven't supported your claim still about why you think that should've lit a fire under the D-backs, because intuitively it doesn't make sense at all (least not to me). Yes, by keeping outstanding talent you do affect the other choices GM's make, thanks for pointing out that what other team's do affect the Dbacks decision process, mighty fine critical thinking you got going there.

That said unless you think the Giants are going to be any good why should the Dbacks be worried.

As for my other point:

2007 NL West OPS+
Colorado: 103
San Diego: 101
Los Angeles: 93
Arizona: 89
San Francisco: 89

2007 NL West ERA+
Arizona: 114
Colorado: 111
Los Angeles: 109
San Diego: 108
San Francisco: 106

I hadn't even looked at ERA+ yes but damn, does that only help my argument. Now look at each team's current team and their farm system and tell me which ones look better for the next 2-3 years like I said. If you can pick the Giants over any of those teams more power to you, but I certainly can't.

by awesomer @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 15, 2007 11:46 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Show me where I said you said that
As per your request in you heading the inferred tone that ends with " realize the Giants unless they plan on signing every FA infield bat they can find next year (Tex, Hudson, Furcal, Glaus I'd go with) are doomed for the next 2 years at least if not more." led me to say your miscasting my stance.

As for why I was saying Cain & Lincume effect other gm's look at the structure of you other posts. You  cite the personal in other  systems. So why assume other systems are ignorant of the Giants? It's a unsound logic. If the structure works one way it works both ways or its unsound. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

Now the ERA+ & OPS+ that is more like it. Thanks. I`ll see them and offer head to head records as a counter to why I am not seeing a Royals or Pirates like residency in the cellar. I only said last place finishes for 5+ years are not realistic. I am not claiming `08 or `09 are years the Giants are contending for the division lead. Never had.  So in the end, for '08,  I don't think we are too far apart on that.

 I can lay out scenarios were the Giants might finish a head of a team in `08  but it would have to do with things going right for the Giants and wrong for someone else. It would also mean the Giants close the gap with the Padre's ( 4- 14 last year) while staying around 500 for the season series' ( 8-10 ,with in a game of 500, for each other division foe in `07) of the other division rivals and the over .500 clubs  in the NL East & NL Central ( 16-21 in `07 which is close to the rate of wins vs. non Padre division foes).

The later two  parts is what the did last year despite no established roles in the Pen for most of the season and an offense  that should have had its picture on a milk carton.  . In fact it backs up my assertion that you are unduly playing down the level of the Giants chances to improve themselves. Again though I don't think that makes the Giants a division contender for `08.

by daveinexile on Dec 15, 2007 1:04 PM PST up reply actions  

They've been winning so much forever?
And haven't had low draft pick in quite a while?

They can't really afford to keep the good picks they create when they're paid 18 mil per for 7 years by moron GMs?

They've been injured to hell recently?

by awesomer @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 15, 2007 10:23 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: They've been winning so much forever?
Zito falls into the same mold as the Mulder, Hudson etc all trades. He knew he could not keep the guys so he had to swap them or hope the compensation picks made keeping them worth it. Thus I wonder if he could, or would, ever do a MLBer for MLBers trade. Its one of those things yet to be proven either way.

The Tejada/Chavez choice for retaining talent.  That is the one chance he has been given to retain his help.   Not exactly a large sample pool to judge on so to me if he can judge and retain late 20's MLB talent is yet to be proven or disproved as well.

I do give Beane credit for being flexible enough to think injured players were the under valued market the last couple years. It did not turn out well but at least he was not entrenched in one method of thinking.

by daveinexile on Dec 15, 2007 11:43 AM PST up reply actions  

The one thing you are giving
crediting Beane for is probably one of Beane's biggest mistakes: the idea that injuries are just random statistical flukes and thus injury prone players are "undervalued".

He has done MLBers for MLBers swaps. Arthur Rhodes and All Star Mark Redman (TM) for Jason Kendall.

As I pointed out above, Ted Lilly for Bobby Kielty, which was IMO one of his worst moves as As GM.

He has also traded prospects for MLBers: Bonderman + Pena for Lilly, Teahen for Dotel.

by rfloh on Dec 15, 2007 1:07 PM PST up reply actions  

UGH
That should be the one thing you are crediting Beane for ...

by rfloh on Dec 15, 2007 1:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The one thing you are giving
I am not disagreeing it( injury risk players) turned out poorly.  But I give credit for not letting himself get trapped in one style of personal procurement  I'll give him some applause for the guts to do it. He could have just said, "Poor us. We can't afford to sign anyone because of our budget. " and not make the effort to improve the team out side of young farm help.. He wouldn't have risked losing face that way. Instead he took a chance to be better. Good for him in my book.

by daveinexile on Dec 15, 2007 1:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Just because he took
a chance doesn't mean that he deserves applause for it. A stoopid gamble is still a stoopid gamble, regardless if it was "out of the box thinking".

It was a stoopid move from the start. Injuries are not random statistical variation. Just because statheads don't understand something, in this case,  physical conditioning, doesn't mean that it is just random statistical variation.

by rfloh on Dec 15, 2007 1:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Just because he took
My impression  and understanding was the injury gamble moves were generally meant to augment his young players.   Chavez and Crosby were meant to back bone the last couple A's squads.    I could be very wrong there but that is how I read the lay of the land at the time he as making those choices.  Please correct me if I am wrong.

About a week back there as a great little side discussion on the economic value of a players difference of replacement when the difference is defensive compared to offensive.  I think Beane just figured at the then current rates for injured players were very attractive.

by daveinexile on Dec 16, 2007 7:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The one thing you are giving
To be fair, Beane's injury-risk purchase of Frank Thomas worked out to the tune of .270/.381/.545 and 4th place showing in the MVP race.

by chefasaurus on Dec 15, 2007 5:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
After looking over the Reds' situation, I don't think they are going to trade either Encarnacion or Votto, and certainly not for Lowry, Sanchez or even both.  

If we get a knockout offer for Sanchez, go ahead.  That's unlikely to happen and his value is lower than it should be for the reasons UleashTheGore outlined.

I agree that Sanchez should start the season in the Fresno rotation.  I think he will do well there.  Starting will help him develop as a pitcher whether his future is in a MLB bullpen or as a starter.  He then becomes a great insurance policy against injury to one of the starters, or allows us to trade one of the starters at midseason, or nice midseason trade bait himself.

by DrBGiantsfan on Dec 14, 2007 10:16 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Maybe this year Sabean will listen. Even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while.

by daveinexile on Dec 14, 2007 10:46 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I doubt he will listen. According to the Mitchell report, he is the Sargeant Schultz of baseball. "I see nothing, I hear nothing."
Bring me a cleanup hitter please!!

by rxmeister on Dec 14, 2007 11:04 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I thought the Beloved Commish was Srg. Schultz.

by daveinexile on Dec 14, 2007 3:23 PM PST up reply actions  

vs Embree
Sanchez's potential exceeds Embree's career, and it's not like Embree was such a bad pitcher, just not a great one.

Embree probably had Sanchez-like upside when he was 22 and struck out 30% of the batters he faced in high A as a starter, much what Sanchez was doing at that age, but a level lower.  Embree, however, was rushed to the majors and (I assume) got hurt, as he missed the next year and never managed the same K rates again.

Sanchez was similarly rushed in his age-23 year, but managed the same stellar 30% K rates in AA and AAA, though not the majors.  Last year, he worked his MLB K% up above 25%.  That's good.  The full list of NL pitchers with 50+ IP who did better is Marmol, Saito, Cruz, Cordero, Johnson, Lidge, Broxton, Valverde, Turnbow, Miller, Wagner, Myers, and Peavy.  That's it.  Sanchez is already in pretty nice company.  His problem is walks.

If he can bring his walks down, keep his Ks up and start, he's immediately a solid mid-rotation starter.  Those are three big ifs, but the potential is there.

I would never deal him as a throwin, but given what even relievers get paid these days, he's tradeable for more.  Sanchez for Votto, platoon split and all?  Sure, assuming the Reds don't land Bedard.  Sanchez for Matsui or other market-value bat?  No; why give up that upside for nothing but a fully priced hitter?

by wcw on Dec 14, 2007 11:04 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
How about Sanchez to Cleveland for Andy Marte?

by Keith0909 on Dec 14, 2007 11:19 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I think, and I'm guessing most people would agree, that we'd be over paying.

That said, I'd be OK with it.

by Scottsdale on Dec 14, 2007 11:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
That's a risk -- I'm not sure Marte will ever pan out. Of course, that's exactly what we'rea ll saying about Sanchez, so I guess. . .
Don't believe everything you think.

by wcovington on Dec 14, 2007 3:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I would deal Sanchez in a second. In a half a second. No matter what level his value is now, I don't think it will ever be a whole lot higher, and I don't think that he's ever going to be a valuable part of this team. Let me explain:

I love Sanchez's potential. I love it as much as the next guy. I overvalue it as much as the next fan. The k rate is gaga. The fastball is lava hot. But he's a ticking time bomb with one and a half pitches and no history of stamina. It's Sanchez's upside and his peripherals that will net us something shiny in a trade (don't expect something shiny AND glittery, you greedy gusses!). It is the fact that he is an arm thrower with no body mass who has never thrown more than 40 innings for the Giants without getting sore or just regular hurt (that's based on memory and possibly exaggeration, not fact).

I have absolutely no confidence in this guy's ability to be a starter long term. I have lots of confidence in him as a bullpen arm, but we can still likely get a return on him from a team that thinks he can start. And that's not a return to sneeze at, starter's return.

That's that. To answer the question directly, I think that Sanchez's perceived value is actually higher than Lowry's right now. That's not to say anything great about the perceived value of either one, but I think we'll end up getting more back for Snatch than "Sell Low-ry."

That's how I feel. I love the guy, but he's never going to be a major league starter without some major changes to either his training regimen or his mechanics, and it's kind of too late for either one to make a useful difference. Trade him now, before the rest of the league figures it out.

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 11:24 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Which is exactly why Dr. B is right, he should start the season as a SP in AAA where, with any luck, he does well and raises his trade value.  His problem as a starter, esp a MLB starter, is that he is likely a 5 inning starter.  And that plays hell with a bull pen every 5th day.

by allfrank on Dec 14, 2007 11:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
'ticking time bomb?'  Yes.  All pitchers are, and pitchers with >10% walk rates especially.

'arm thrower with no body mass?'  Skinny pitchers 'throw' with their bodies, too.  Velocity comes from your legs and trunk.  Sanchez's 'arm throwing' is indeed a problem, but it's evidenced by his control issues.  His arm is as durable as any other young pitcher's -- not.

'never thrown more than 40 innings..without getting sore or just regular hurt'  He put in 125 IP in 2005 as a starter in low A, and I don't believe he got hurt.

'he's never going to be a major league starter without some major changes'  Replace 'never' with 'probably not' and drop the 'changes' clause entirely.  He's a young, unestablished pitcher.  He will probably flame out or have his arm fall off, full stop.  That's just what you expect from anyone who hasn't shown he can handle starting in the majors.  Sanchez's hasn't.  Then again, neither has Homer Bailey, and I don't see the Reds tossing him into a trade as a throwin.  Neither should the Giants Sanchez.

by wcw on Dec 14, 2007 11:50 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
So... you basically sound like you agree with me, minus a few minor conflicts of syntax and diction. I think that the main difference is that when I say ticking time bomb, you take that as a constant among pitching prospects but I mean it in the sense that he's more likely to get hurt than the average time bomby pitching prospect.

And I don't know why I ever even write exaggerated statements anymore. Even when I explain that I am exaggerating, somebody has to go and quote me and prove my exaggeration wrong. Isn't that the point of an exaggeration?

Still, the difference between "as likely to get hurt as the next guy" and "a sure thing to get hurt" is probably the difference between wanting him to stay and wanting him gone, respectively. I've given my reasons for thinking he will absolutely be injured if he ever takes on a starter's workload full time. He has bad mechanics, doesn't have enough body to absorb the abuse, and he has a rich history of dl trips and soreness just in the last two years. He just scares me, is all.

And Homer Bailey has thrown over 100IP each of the last 3 years and has had a starter's workload pretty much the whole entire time. I can't say I think he's a great comparison when we're talking about being worried about workload.

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 12:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
On second thought, I wasn't very clear about exaggerating. Sorry for getting uppity. My fault.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 12:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Bailey I bring up because of his walk rates, since the thing I worry about with Sanchez are the walks, not his arm.  Sanchez's BB% has been in the 10-12% range, and that's a problem.  Bailey's has been in the 10-14% range, and that's also a problem.  I'd much rather have Bailey despite his mediocre K% this year, since he survived MLB at age 21, and that's unusual.  If he gets his stuff under control, he could be a nice #2 some day.  Right now, though, he's a flameout waiting to happen -- just like Sanchez -- and is still worth a ton on the trade market.

I fisked your post not because I disagreed with its conclusions, but because it uniformly didn't make sense.  Your reply does make sense: Sanchez is an elevated risk because of his history of arm soreness.  Absolutely true.  But the folderol about his size and motion are hooey.  Lots of pitchers with nice-looking mechanics break down; lots of stocky pitchers break down; lots of pitchers break down, period.  I've seen essenaitlly no work suggesting physical type affects durability.  However the data do suggest that risk factors include throwing hard, overuse, and inexperience, the latter probably more because experienced pitchers are those who have proven their motions are mechanically sound.  Bailey's 100 IP don't do much for me versus Sanchez's 50IP.  Bailey in five years with 750 injury-free IP will absolutely be somewhat predictive of his continued future health.

by wcw on Dec 14, 2007 1:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I think that's perfectly fair. I think I'm afraid of his bad mechanics (and I guess bad mechanics is subjective as well) because of his history of injury more than simply because the mechanics themselves are bad. A guy with bad mechanics and a history of health will always be lower risk than a guy with bad mechanics and a history of injury. I would speculate that because of his history of soreness, I think of his mechanics as the likeliest cause.

As far as body type goes, I'm afraid to say I don't have a reference of study to back up the assertion. I think it makes logical sense that a guy with less on his frame will suffer more physical abuse from doing the same amount of work, and I'm pretty sure that a lot of scouting is done with that in mind, but I'm not interested in quibbling over that. It may or may not have any credence. I believe it does, but that hardly means it doesn't.

But yes, more than anything else Jonathan Sanchez's track record is what scares me. Mechanics and size are all only ultimately speculative, but his injury history is concrete evidence of elevated risk. Without the history, I wouldn't have any reason to be afraid of the other things, however justly.

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 2:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
"I believe it does, but that hardly means it doesn't."

That sentence doesn't even remotely follow logically. Just pretend that it means what it is obviously supposed to mean.

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 2:45 PM PST up reply actions  

this may be a stretch

Your 2007 San Francisco Giants: When Keepin' It Real Goes Wrong

by the degenerate on Dec 15, 2007 9:54 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Sanchez wouldn't be the first highly rated pitching prospect to not reach his potential. Highly rated pitching prospects fail at a higher rate than position prospects. Unlike the minors, every hitter, well almost every hitter, in the majors can hit a fastball. A starting pitcher with only 2 pitches, and the breaking ball undependable at that, scares me a little. The Embree comparison might be a good one. I remember that Embree could always through a mid 90s fastball. We need to trade some of our wealth, young pitching, for position players. I'm not sure I like the Matsui idea, but If we can get a good, young prospect like Votto it might be worth it. Otherwise, I think we we keep him.

by marklar on Dec 14, 2007 11:44 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt

I would see what the interest was.  There is no hurry to move him, and no loss to keep him and see what develops.

It's is an organizational strength, though (young pitching) so if I could get some position players that were close to ML/high potential I would probably trade him.  I would also trade him, or include him with a package for a solid veteran 3B/1B that was under contract for a few years.

Summary:  I would be a good GM.

Aside, I have literally NO idea if he would be better as a starter or reliever.  I can only hope as acting "good" GM, that I would have faith in my coaching staff + scouts to make this decision correctly.

by zenbitz on Dec 14, 2007 12:13 PM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
This is a decided departure, but the Royals traded 24 yr old Billy Buckner to the D'backs today. Coincidentally, today also happens to be the birthday of Bill Buckner. Happy 58th Bill.

by marklar on Dec 14, 2007 1:12 PM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
The problem for the Giants is that, in their infinite wisdom (not really) they just can't figure this guy out: starter or long reliever or closer or loogy, or what? Either way, they should decide, but being who they are, they just can't.

He has a good arm and good stuff, however, and I'd certainly be willing to trade him to another team that thinks they can figure him out. I wouldn't give him away, he still has a high ceiling, so he should return a B level prospect or be a part of a package for an A-level prospect, perhaps one who is perhaps being blocked by an all-star or by wrongheaded Giants style pro-veteran management.

Bonds stands alone.

by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 14, 2007 2:27 PM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
A's just traded Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks... Great, another stud pitcher in the NL West who's not a Giant.

by GaryEdmundCarter on Dec 14, 2007 3:10 PM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
That's okay, Sabes is working on a deal with the Rangers to get Edgardo back.
Don't believe everything you think.

by wcovington on Dec 14, 2007 3:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Would you trade Durham and his salary to Texas for Edgardo Alfonzo(once Texas finalizes his minor league deal)?

by GaryEdmundCarter on Dec 14, 2007 4:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
he'll be a free agent by the time the Giants are competitive again.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?

by shikantaza on Dec 14, 2007 8:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
After seeing the desire for Matt Garza, I'm disappointed to see Dirt's value so low.  Garza's k/9 is 7.1 vs.  Sanchez's 9.3.  They both have equally craptastic WHIPs and poor K/BB, but show promise as strikeout pitchers.  Sanchez has just done better at this point.  I think if had 15 starts under his belt, he would have been more coveted.

That what happens when other GMs are blinded by The Enchanter.

by chefasaurus on Dec 14, 2007 4:40 PM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I think Garza is overvalued, but he does walk fewer, throw slightly harder, is a year younger and has one more pitch.  (FWIW, the data indicate Sanchez has 3; Garza has four).

Viz http://baseball.bornbybits.com/php/combined_tool.php?pit=456043&bat=0&type=-1&result=-1& amp;count=-1&r_spd=1&spd=-1&r_brx=1&brx=-100&r_brz=1&brz=-100&l_b=0 vs http://baseball.bornbybits.com/php/combined_tool.php?pit=490063&bat=0&type=-1&result=-1& amp;count=-1&r_spd=1&spd=-1&r_brx=1&brx=-100&r_brz=1&brz=-100&l_b=0

Here I prefer keeping Sanchez and trading Garza, but for an equal-size package, I probably trade Sanchez based on the walks alone.

by wcw on Dec 14, 2007 9:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
okay, scratch my trade of Winn and Roberts to the Cardinals for Josh Hancock and Daryl Kile, and make it Jonathan Sanchez and Dave Roberts for Josh Hancock, Daryl Kile, and a pair of Tony Larussa's ballet slippers.

by E Ticket on Dec 14, 2007 9:26 PM PST reply actions  

Update to Rowand park factors
A little update to my Rowand park factors post in the previous thread.  Taking Rowand's 2007 season and putting him in a Giants uniform would have translated to the following below.  This study uses Bill James 3 year average park factors 04-06 and takes into account Rh/LH splits.

What you get is no change to batting average.  Four more singles, no change in doubles and triples and four less home runs and one more walk.  There is no change to batting average.  One more point of OBP and perhaps the biggest change is 20 less points of slugging percentage.

vr, Xei

Sadaharu Oh - 868 HRs

by Xeifrank on Dec 15, 2007 10:05 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I'm solidly in the trade-Sanchez camp. I can see him as a power reliever, but there are a lot of questions about whether he can make it as a starter. Given that we have depth in pitching, moving him for a position player makes sense.

I suspect he's seen as valuable enough that we can get back something useful. A lefty with good velocity, experience starting and relieving and a nice strikeout rate should get some attention, I think.

I seriously think the Reds ought to be looking at both Sanchez and Lowry to fill out the back end of their rotation or improve their bullpen.

by Dan from NM on Dec 15, 2007 11:29 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Dan, as I was passing through the midwest last week on business, one of the papers in fact mentioned that the Reds had contacted the Giants about moving both of them, but I can't remember which paper it was.  Perhaps Sabean is contemplating a big move like that to fill two positions at once with young players coming back.

by Buck Henry on Dec 16, 2007 7:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I'd move Lowry and Sanchez both for Bruce, Cueto and Votto. There's no way that trade happens, but for all its risks to both sides, it would be a courageous thing.

by wcw on Dec 16, 2007 9:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
could we get votto+encarnacion?

by spartan25 on Dec 15, 2007 9:01 PM PST reply actions  

Sanchez Supporter
I love Sanchez, I think his upside as a starter is somewhere around when Oliver Perez was throwing well in 2004 and 2007. As a reliever, he could be a pretty good setup man or even a closer, potentially. I just love his combination of velocity and stuff from the left side.

I really hope he's given a chance to start this year. I think the Giants can afford to see what he's got in the rotation, if his arm strength and endurance are ready, if not, they could either let him start in AAA or baby him for the first few months while he builds strength.

I wrote a piece on him in September of while I like Sanchez, you can read it here if you're interested.

 

by xanthan on Dec 17, 2007 7:25 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Without a new thread so far this morning, let me put a couple of things out there.  There are reports this morning that the White Sox are finding no takers for 3B Joe Crede, and as a result, they are entertaining offers for 1B Paul Konerko to get the outfield help they are seeking, which they lost when Rowand and others signed elsewhere.  The Giants' lineup would be improved with either of those guys out here, just as it would if we added Encarnacion and Votto at the corners.  But any deal with the Reds for both players would have to include both Lowry and Sanchez, and besides Winn, I don't know what else the White Sox would want from the Giants to get Konerko and possibly Crede.

Questions:

  1. Are the Giants better off keeping Lowry and Sanchez now and opening the season with Ortmeier at 1B and Feliz re-signed to play 3B?
  2. Are they better off depleting the rotation and bullpen by sending Lowry and Sanchez along with perhaps Ortmeier to the Reds for Encarnacion and Votto?
  3. Or are they better off sending one or both of the first two and Winn to the White Sox to get Konerko and Crede?

by Buck Henry on Dec 17, 2007 7:44 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Door #1: If the ship is really taking on that much water and its closer to spring training then maybe. Still probably not. I don't think the Giants can afford to carry both Omar & Pedro.

Door #2:  I am not convinced the Reds would move Vatto without a large profit. I also think its very likely that kind of package would get the O's attention. So I see the Giants chances on a #2 being rather slim as long as  Bedard is on the block.

Door #3.   I view Crede as Pedro like. Usually better OBP and a bit younger but not necessarily as durable and no were as position flexible.  I believe Crede is a free agent next off season. If you present a good case he could "bounce' back to the tune of a "b" list Free agent  I could be easily talked into  accepting the move.  Otherwise he is a  giant "meh" to me.

    Konerko  is interesting. He has 3 more years at 12 mill each, a limited No Trade clause ( 6 teams) and would be a free agent at 35 so its possible he could get compensation picks down the road if held onto that long. He his a middle of the order thunder. It have to come down to costs.

by daveinexile on Dec 17, 2007 8:43 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Dave, I agree on Konerko.  To me, given his middle-of-the-order numbers, the Giants need to take a good look at him and see if they can work something out with the White Sox.  But would the White Sox take Winn and Lowry/Sanchez for Konerko?  

Perhaps the best play is to move Frandsen to 3B for this year, let Durham play out his contract at least until the trading deadline, and focus their remaining efforts on how to improve at 1B.  It seems that they are not comfortable with opening the season with a Ortmeier/Aurilia platoon at 1B, and keep talking about moving Fred Lewis in any trade, so we may see them deal with 1B using some of these pieces along with Lowry/Sanchez.  

I agree that the Reds would send the O's whatever they need to in order to get Bedard, so the Giants' ability to get help from the Reds for 1B/3B is now hostage to those developments.

by Buck Henry on Dec 17, 2007 9:01 AM PST reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
 I am staunchly in the No Frandsen at 3rd camp.  Everything I saw tells me he is a defensive liability (possibly even disaster in waiting ) for the left side of the infield. I would rather see Leone  or even Figueroa ( hey he made one of the best Giants defensive plays in `07 ). Frandsen at SS is sketchy enough to made me wish they would sign a good glove SS out of some one else's AAA team for Omar`s possible premature departure.    If they can't swing a profitable trade then do the Lamb, Einsberg, random 30+ year old rookies at third  route please.  

I don't even want to get started on Durham's use on the roster. Obviously  Botchy will not sit him unless at gun point  so  I would much rather see him set free of the Giants roster. Move Durham's playing time around instead and lets see if Frandsen has it in him to play second well on a regular bases and ( if feeling ambitious) can pick up the foot work at SS well enough to be a back up there. Durham can't possibly be part of the Giants `09 and forward plans so use him as the off road beater rig and stop trying to Sanchez up a player who could be useful  beyond `08.

by daveinexile on Dec 17, 2007 9:49 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I'm also in the "no Frandsen to 3b camp". The Giants really need to find out if he can play everyday at 2b.

I love the idea of Konerko in a Giants uni; Crede not so much. But I don't think the Giants match up well with the White Sox as trading partners. Even though a Winn and Lowery/Sanchez trade might be a fair one, I think they would want a better outfielder than Winn for Konerko in return.

by marklar on Dec 17, 2007 10:16 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
My comment on Durham reflected what was in the MercNews about a week ago where Baggarly said there was talk about keeping him around for 2008.  Yet if you read the Seattle boards, they still want someone to take Sexson off their hands, so it makes you wonder what is possible there.  

As for getting rid of him, I still thought up until the Winter Meetings that there would be AL East interest in both Durham and Roberts, but nothing came of that.  Frandsen is a so-so option, and is only in play because his time is now.  With Vizquel set at SS until at least the 2008 trading deadline, and if you slot Frandsen at 2B by default, who are the best options for 1B/3B outside of the division that cost us the least?  Should they take another look at guys like Texas's Blalock since Texas is always looking for pitching?

by Buck Henry on Dec 17, 2007 10:27 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
If Seattle really wants to trade Sexson for Durham I don't know why Sabean wouldn't do it. I think Sexson is more likely of the 2 to have a bounce-back season, and it addresses an area of need.

I think Frandsen has the potential to be better than so-so. But the only way to find out is to give him consistent playing time at 2b.

The 3b options are depressing to think about. I could suffer through 2008 with Feliz at 3b I suppose, but only for 1 year.

by marklar on Dec 17, 2007 11:11 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
I realize you we not necessarily advocating Frandsen  at 3rd. I was mainly trying to make my view on it clear. I apologize if I sounded otherwise.

Judging by how Williams shopped Garland &  Vazquez that last half year and this is the first I have heard of Williams listening on Konerko I would imagine the asking price is high for him. I would love to be wrong but it would fit his most recent model.

Blaylock's splits really discourage me from giving up any talent for him.

As a for the Sexton theory I could get make my piece with that gamble easily enough. I feel for Mariner fans for I view Bavasi as one of the very few Gm's more maddening to pilot a franchise then Sabean. So an attack of the rational kind is a bit of over due for Bavasi but I would not count on it.

If Sabean must keep Durham  then he starts using a first base glove spring training and can easy the playing time off of Ortmeire and be there encase  Frandsen flames out and Velez ( or other farm hand)  is not deemed close enough .

I really think the Phillies & the Giants are watching the Cardinals & the A's closely. If you are going to pay ,in terms of talent, Chavez and Rolen seem the most likely gambles to pay off left until the Bedard situation plays out more.  

If nothing shakes out you have the ability to platoon a bunch of bargain bin dives at 3rd with Aurilia. To some degree at first as well. Enisburg looks useful in that he can help at either diamond spot and should only cost money and a roster slot for a season. My hart is not set on Ensburg but if going the dumpster drive and not trying a young player reclamation project he would be my first choice.

by daveinexile on Dec 17, 2007 11:14 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Dave, understood about the Frandsen/Durham comment - not to worry.  I was dismayed to see that Sabean was actually talking about Durham bouncing back in 2008, and with the talk at the same time about Feliz being reconsidered for a two-year deal, it made me wonder where in hell Frandsen fit into this lunacy.

I, like others, would take a shot at Sexson for a year, especially if we could move Durham as part of the same offseason.  And if you know that you will have your own in-house options for 3B in 2010 and possibly 1B as well, and want to keep the fans interested until then, I would also consider Rolen if the Cards really wanted to move him cheaply, which seems to be the case every time I read a new quote from LaRussa.  I just think that Magowan is too tight-fisted to write $26 million in checks for both Rolen and Sexson this year, yet he has no problem paying  $15 million for Durham and Roberts.

by Buck Henry on Dec 17, 2007 11:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Magawon does not seem to have problem with spending money to make money. Perhaps if he did some of the nonsense "b" list free agent moves between '03- 06  would have been avoided. The last is  mostly speculation though.  

I think the bigger problem is Sabean willing to eat humble pie? And is he willing to accept the perceived damage cutting a veteran might have when bargaining with free agents in the future?  When he can answer "yes" to both then the Giants might be getting some were positive rather quickly.

There I an upside to no Sexson trade. Bochey can't try and play him 1100+ innings if he is not on the roster. It is not much but hey its something! ;)

by daveinexile on Dec 17, 2007 11:41 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
If we really have an infield consisting of Durham/Omar/Feliz this season, I'm going to stab myself in the head.  This team will essentially be the '07 Giants all over again, replacing Bonds with Rowand.  So much for rebuilding.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Dec 17, 2007 12:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Well  Sabean will have done it for you! ; )

Like I said I really think the Omar or Feliz decision has been made. I can't see both.  

Durham is a 36 year old platoon level player that only plays one N.L available position at this point.  If  Sabean insists on making that much lemonade the only way to do it is hand Durham a first baseman glove in spring training and tell Frandsen to go get them at second.  If Bochy benches Frandsen (applies to Ortmeire as well) a week or two   into the season  then Bee- Awetch slap him tell he looks like the world's largest bobble head doll.

Of coarse this will never happen.  We will get 500 AB's from Durham, 400 from Omar, and about 800 Ab's from 2-3 scrap heap veterans over 34. It's the Sabean way.

by daveinexile on Dec 17, 2007 1:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Sabean's been particularly misleading this offseason.  But I just can't help but think that Feliz for two years is something that just might happen.  Especially considering the lack of movement Sabean's been partaking in since the offseason began.  Maybe he's waiting for the market value of his guys to improve, maybe he's posturing in order to get Colletti to bite and offer Feliz too much money for too many years.  ("Hey Ned...  So I'm thinking about giving Pedro a contract for two years at about...  I don't know, maybe 12 mil per year.  You think that's a good move?  I mean, he's a savvy vet who can give you 20 bombs a year, and he's played for the Giants...  Should I do it?"  This is immediately followed by Ned giving Pedro a 12 year contract for 20 mil a year).

If it were up to me, I'd tell Durham to start taking snaps at first and third, because he's not going to be a starter, and if he wants to play at all, he's going to have to be a "super" sub.  Franny starts at second.  That's always seemed like such a no-brainer since Frandsen can actually field his position.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Dec 17, 2007 1:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
Well if the Gaint's had not already singed Omar I could live with a year and an option ( possible 2 years)  for Pedro.  Then next year he is Aurilia's supper sub replacement. But that ship as already sailed.

   The biggest problem ( in my opinion) signing them both is it does nothing for the potentional time bomb of replacing the entire left side of the infield in one offseason.  That puts the club back in the exact position is was last off season were you are madly scrambling for any moving body ( Voodoo ritual produced or not) just to take innings.

I have to agree with your Frandsen take.  It's not like Druham has ever been a elite rated defender at second for an entire season...let alone his career.  Besides with another season of this jacking around and Sabean will have put Frandsen in a very similar position he had Linden in last spring. That is not a good thing. If Frandsen is going to flame out or shows to be suitable only for a back up M.I. role it needs  to proven so they can go forward with other roster moves next off season.

by daveinexile on Dec 17, 2007 1:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
You guys do realize that Frandsen is far from a sure thing to out hit Durham in 2008.

by zenbitz on Dec 18, 2007 8:20 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
There is only one thing "sure" about Frandsen  in my eyes. The need to actually find out what use he can, or can't be, for  `09 and beyond. The Giants don't need another Linden/Neikro  etc situation were for several springs running you say have to say ," Maybe he his ... Maybe he isn't"

by daveinexile on Dec 18, 2007 11:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
No one is saying that Frandsen is guaranteed to out-hit Durham. But Frandsen had very good numbers in the minor leagues, and the hope for him was high. He has been jerked around as far as position goes and hasn't been given a chance to see if he can play a good major league 2b. Since the Giants aren't winning anything in '08 why play Durham at 2b? Use this upcoming season to find out once and for all if Frandsen can be our every day player at 2b for the next few years.

by marklar on Dec 18, 2007 4:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Value of Dirt
The White Sox current outfield is  Anderson, Dye, Owens,  Sweeny & the newly acquired Carlos Quentin.  So, depending on Williams read on Crede's return to health,  it is possible an outfielder could be swapped for Crede. Hopefully not Nate, preferably one of Roberts/ Winn or  ( if pressed enough maybe) Lewis.

by daveinexile on Dec 17, 2007 11:10 AM PST up reply actions  

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