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Laying Down the Law...

This is Keith Law's Blog on ESPN.com and my responses to it:

Rowand's not a Giant upgradeposted: Wednesday, December 12, 2007

The fact that the addition of Aaron Rowand probably makes the Giants a better club in 2008 should not be seen as an endorsement of the signing (When do we endorse signings then? When they make teams worse?). We're talking about a lineup where the fourth-best hitter is the "VACANT" sign hanging on third base.  (I don't even know what that means.  Is he saying Feliz was our 4th best hitter?)

Rowand is a dead-fastball hitter (true) with a complicated, high-effort swing (also true) that produces a lot of sound and fury, but a lot of swings and misses as well (true). His power is part real and part the effect of the hitters' parks where he's spent his entire career (56 homers at home versus 37 on the road) [I'd venture to say he doesn't have any real power at all... but that doesn't mean he's a bad hitter]. He's not enough of a contact hitter to predict high averages, and his batting average has fluctuated accordingly throughout his career. He is not patient, going after the first fastball he sees (or thinks he sees) [This is a completely unjustifiable statement.  Keith Law has no idea about Rowand's approach.  It's pure speculation.], never drawing more than 44 unintentional walks in a season (He swings a lot, yea... we get it). He's now moving to a bigger ballpark that's about as unfriendly to home runs as Philadelphia's park is friendly to them, and he's not going to make up for the loss of that power with good OBPs.

Jerry Crasnick just named the Giants' lineup (without Rowand) the worst in the majors as currently constructed, and lack of on-base skills is a major reason [The lack of hitting ability is the other major reason]. The Giants' offense revolved around Barry Bonds, who certainly won't be playing in San Francisco in 2008, leaving the Giants with a sort of baseball anemia. Bonds drew 132 walks in 2007; the rest of the Giants drew 400, with no one over 53. In fact, the Giants put fewer men on base in 2007 than any other NL club but Arizona, and that's including Bonds and his .480 OBP. If you don't put men on base, you don't score. Signing Rowand doesn't help the Giants on this score.

Here's what I have to say:
Rowand was not the best CF available in the free agent pool, but of the CF picks he was probably the best signing.  Andrum Jones is basically more of a liability than an asset, and Torii is just way too expensive.  Rowand is probably the highest value, even at his riddiculous signing price.  He plays CF better than anyone that was available, and that alone would have won the Giants 5 more games last year.  My hatred of Dave Roberts defense in CF is well documented.

Rowand is pretty quick, has a great glove and arm in CF, is only 30 years old, and is about the easiest guy to cheer for in the Bigs.  That guy plays balls to the wall every day.  He is well-known for firing up his teammates with his play and with his attitude.  The Giants maybe didn't need a 17th out-fielder, but they did upgrade defensively and got a spark plug on the bench.  I really do not disagree with signing him.  Let Rowand roam around in CF and let Roberts platoon with Schierholtz in LF.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: Laying Down the Law...
Not to nitpick, but it's reasonable to assume that Keith Law does have some idea as to Rowand's approach. Pitch-by-pitch data is fairly easy to come by these days.

Baseball Reference shows Rowand goes after the first pitch about 32% of the time - - 12% higher than Vizquel, 10% higher than Durham, and 8% higher than Randy Winn. For reference's sake, Pedro Feliz clocks in at 40%. Rowand is pretty high up on the list, but not quite as bad as Feliz.

Rowand plays "balls to the walls", sure, but the problem is that he isn't extremely good. He's not a difference maker, and a lot of his offense comes as a result of playing in some very good hitter's parks. Good hitting involves getting on-base - - is it any wonder the Giants had an offense so bad and were 28th in baseball in OBP?

Look, OBP isn't everything, and individually Rowand does make the team better next year. In a vacuum, having Rowand for 2008 is an improvement. The problem lies in the fact that we could have had a more valuable outfielder (Fukadome) for the same price and less years. Additionally, both Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes were given up for prices even we could have matched without giving up Cain or Lincecum. The signing is horrible when you consider what could have been done instead.

by MidKnight on Dec 13, 2007 1:13 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
Fukudome chose the Cubs. He was offered more from other teams. So you can't just really have anyone you want.
Fairley odd parent to Wendell...

by Mark carry on on Dec 13, 2007 1:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
From what I understand, the Cubs came out with a deal that was higher than the other teams. It'd be a different story if we had matched or surpassed their bid, but that's simply not the case. Fukadome's agent was quoted telling the media that Giants had some preliminary inquiries but had not jumped in to the bidding like the Cubs or Padres had. This coming from a team located in a city that is supposedly quite attractive to Japanese players and that has a good deal of spare money to spend.

While we can't have just anyone, there's little doubt in my mind that we couldn't have acquired Milledge, for example, with Molina and either Sanchez or Lowry.

by MidKnight on Dec 13, 2007 1:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
I would think the attraction of hitting at Wrigley Field (particularly with the wind blowing out in the summer) would far exceed the attraction of hitting at AT&T Park/Field/Stadium.

That, and the Cubs have a MUCH better lineup than the Giants.

The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 14, 2007 5:52 AM PST up reply actions  

Now, IMO the Mets
were idiots for trading away Milledge.

However, I'm not sure that the Giants could have gotten him. Omar Minaya appears to genuinely think that Brian Schneider is a good player. A gold glove calibre catcher who calls a good game and all that. Ryan Church is also a pretty decent player in the short term.

The Giants don't have anyone like Church, and it is unknown as to how good Minaya thinks Bengie's defense is.

As for Dukes, seriously, that's a bad comp. Dukes is a guy who threatened to kill his wife and his children. He has a history of very serious off the field issues. He can't play in MLB if he is in jail.

by rfloh on Dec 13, 2007 2:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Now, IMO the Mets
Believe me, I don't disagree with the fact that Dukes is not the type of guy we'd want to build around (or even be within a hundred feed around), but I was going for a young-outfielder example. He's F-ing crazy, and from all accounts a piss-poor human being, but he is a highly ranked prospect who was acquired for very little. It might have been worth it to deal for him, stash him in the minors/jail and see if he ever gets his act together. A longshot, but still a low-risk, high-reward scenario. I'm not sure if I'd actually advocate acquiring him (if he was still with the Rays), but food for thought, I suppose.

The Mets were indeed pretty stupid about trading away Milledge, especially for what they got in return. A catcher who hits like a poor backup and a guy who, when healthy, is genuinely good. Still, the market for catchers was very weak this year, and from what I understood, the Mets had interest in Molina and had discussed some sort of swap involving Lowry. I don't know what it would have taken, but I think we could have pulled it off without giving up either of The Big Two, and that's worth it in my books/

by MidKnight on Dec 13, 2007 2:16 PM PST up reply actions  

The propaganda
from the Mets is that they really love Schneider's glove, his pitch calling, his grit blah blah blah. When a team uses that kind of reasoning, I'm not sure that it's possible to argue that there is a better package available.

Also, another propaganda item that they are floating is that Church is a good MLB player now. Whereas Milledge, who knows? That reasoning is foolish, but if they actually believe that, the Giants don't have a player like Church who allows the Mets to replace Milledge in the OF.

Basically, they are using Sabean style win at all cost NOW reasoning to justify that trade.

I follow the Mets pretty closely, and I never heard any rumours about Lowry.

by rfloh on Dec 13, 2007 3:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The propaganda
I won't argue about the Personality Propaganda following Schnedier. It seems like gritty players can sometimes survive on personality alone in the league, which strikes me as odd considering the rising price of the free agent market.

In any case, the rumors about Lowry and Milledge weren't unsubstantiated:
http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-spmets075491315dec07,0,2967654.story

"Another interesting development from late in the winter meetings was the revelation that the Mets talked to the Giants last month about acquiring lefthander Noah Lowry, according to a person familiar with the situation.

San Francisco is desperate for offense after refusing to re-sign Barry Bonds and asked about Lastings Milledge, but also needed another young pitcher back in the deal. When those discussions cooled, the Mets shipped Milledge to the Nationals instead, but a team official suggested those talks could be revisited later this winter if the Giants are unable to fill that need."

by MidKnight on Dec 13, 2007 4:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The propaganda
from the Mets is that they really love Schneider's glove, his pitch calling, his grit blah blah blah. When a team uses that kind of reasoning, I'm not sure that it's possible to argue that there is a better package available.

Funny, sounds like the same things we heard about Mike Matheny.

by otis29 on Dec 14, 2007 6:25 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: The propaganda
true, but Matheny was really those things, and a true team leader. With Schneider, it is merely talk.
Bring me just about anyone, you moron Sabean!!

by rxmeister on Dec 14, 2007 7:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Now, IMO the Mets
Ever since the A.J. Pierzynski debacle, I think Sabean's made a point to avoid players that are considered trouble.  I don't think he's acquired a player that's had an attitude problem since then (Hillensuck?  We all knew he was only for the "playoff push," though).

The thing with Milledge is that he's not a legitimate badass, he's just a whiny little bitch.  Dukes, on the other hand, makes Milton Bradley look like a cabbage patch doll.

Not really responding to anything you said, MidKnight, just sort of rambling I suppose . . .

Brian Anderson: I can has spot in Fresno 'pen?

by JT Jordan on Dec 13, 2007 8:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Now, IMO the Mets
Just off the top of my head: Alex Sanchez
-- Born Yesterday

by thatdog on Dec 13, 2007 9:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Now, IMO the Mets
Bonds for one more year? (i mean '07.)

by kennv on Dec 14, 2007 7:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Now, IMO the Mets
Should have specified: new players.

. . .And we had Alex Sanchez for how long?  A month and a half?

Brian Anderson: I can has spot in Fresno 'pen?

by JT Jordan on Dec 14, 2007 8:12 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
His on base percentage isn't THAT bad. He might walk only around 50 times per season, but he also gets hit by pitches around 20 times. When you read guys like Law and Crasnick you wonder why the Giants even bother playing out the 2008 season. I'm not knocking their knowledge because they know they stuff, but these experts are wrong as often as they're right. Let me know which ESPN expert picked the Rockies to make the World Series last year.
Bring me just about anyone, you moron Sabean!!

by rxmeister on Dec 14, 2007 5:51 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
Rowand does nothing to help us next year and by the time we're good again, he'll be too old and even less productive. He will be overpaid. He blocks Fred/Rajai and by implication Nate from getting regular playing time, which is not good. We're gonna suck next season. We might as well suck by letting the young guys play and seeing what they can do and saving money for good free agents, if any, that come out later.

Why is this org so afraid of young players?  

Bonds stands alone.

by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 13, 2007 1:19 PM PST reply actions  

Re: + ∞
That was supposed to say + ∞

(why won't the stupid pooter let me be witty?)

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Dec 13, 2007 2:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: + ∞
To infinity.....and beyond!!
The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 14, 2007 6:06 AM PST up reply actions  

Rowand's PECOTA
Year   OBP  SLG  VORP
2008  .332  .461  13.7
2009  .326  .442   7.8
2010  .327  .445   7.1
2011  .321  .436   4.1

Leading the list of comparable players is Brian Jordan. Jordan kept his OPS around .800 from 31-35 except for his age 33 year. That year his OPS dipped to .740.

Funny, PECOTA doesn't predict Rowand to fare as well as Jordan during that five year age span.

-- Born Yesterday

by thatdog on Dec 13, 2007 9:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
You can't just hand over jobs to "young players" because you don't think you have a chance next year. The young players have to be studs. Freddie Lewis, Ort, Rajai, etc. are not going to be stars based on their minor league performances. Nate Schierholtz has a better chance and I think he'll eventually break through and become a regular if he isn't already next April. I'm sure there are some, but I can't imagine too many fans who say "play the kids" are going to stick around if the team starts off 10-30. Aaron Rowand IS a waste if they don't continue to go out and get talent, but as the first step he is a pretty good one.
Bring me just about anyone, you moron Sabean!!

by rxmeister on Dec 14, 2007 5:55 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
I like reading Keith Law, but it seems like there is almost no one to him that is not a 4th outfielder.
He always refers to Fred Lewis as an everyday regular, but Rowand is no better than a 4th OF.
Go figure...
Fairley odd parent to Wendell...

by Mark carry on on Dec 13, 2007 1:22 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
>we could have had a more valuable outfielder (Fukadome) for the same price and less years.

Really? Where did you read that Fukudome would have signed with the Giants for 4 years and $60 M? And do you truly recommend signing a guy from the Japanese leagues who missed the second half of 2007 with an elbow injury for that kind of money?

"There's not enough bases out there to intentionally walk everybody you want to." - Grady Little

by leftymalo on Dec 13, 2007 1:24 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
I meant the $12 million per year that the he and the cubs have supposedly agreed to. We could have matched that (as Rowand's deal suggests), or even upped it by a million a year. If we had matched their bid and lost, I would have been okay with that. The problem is that the Giants barely even tried for Fukudome, as his agent suggests.

I would indeed recommend signing a guy from the Japanese league who missed half of 2007 over Rowand. He projects quite well in the American leagues, and projections of the sort have generally turned out fairly accurate. This isn't Shinjo, here; we know power doesn't translate well, but average and patience generally do, and this is a very patient contact hitter.

Additionally, I'm not sure how Rowand is less likely to get injured. Signed to his Age 35 season, do you really think his body is likely to withstand all the punishment he gives it?

We would have taken a risk with Fukudome, but with Rowand we generally know what we're getting. He's someone who eroding patience who has spent most of his life in hitter's parks. It's unlikely he'll suddenly turn it around and help us three years from now when we're ready to really compete. Sabean's playing it safe, as he has the past five years or so. I've noticed over the past few years that people here have been quick to post Law's columns about the Giants and rip him to shreds. At this point, though, it seems he's been correct as to the direction of the team.

by MidKnight on Dec 13, 2007 1:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
I would have preferred Fukudome and I think he would have taken the Giants if all things were equal because he wanted to play on the west coast, but to a GM whose next bad signing may cost him his job, I can understand why he went the safe route with a player who has already succeeded in the major leagues. And to a team like the Cubs, who already have a power packed lineup and tons of big market money to spend, they can afford to take the risk on Fukudome that the Giants were obviously afraid to.
Bring me just about anyone, you moron Sabean!!

by rxmeister on Dec 14, 2007 5:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
One other note, although not of the greatest importance, is that Fukudome is a left hand bat, whereas Rowand is a right handed bat, which is an advantage given our park & the other options we have in the outfield.

by GiantFan on Dec 14, 2007 6:06 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
And the Cubs specifically needed to add a LH bat.
The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 14, 2007 6:08 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: You sure this isn't Bob Loblaw's Law Blog?
I laughed, Gore...now be honest: is that purely Arrested Development knowledge or Scott Baio knowledge?
Didn't you used to be Barry Zito?

by VidaWantsYourCar on Dec 13, 2007 1:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You sure this isn't Bob Loblaw's Law Blog?
Amazing reference.
Brian Sabean is akin to a treatable form of cancer... just get rid of it before it kills you

by milesntrane on Dec 13, 2007 1:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You sure this isn't Bob Loblaw's Law Blog?
or is it Mr. Bob Dobalina's Law Blog ?

Too obscure ?

My adopted son Matt Downs. He can hit a little.

by nvsfg on Dec 13, 2007 2:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You sure this isn't Bob Loblaw's Law Blog?
It is of my opinion that the people are intending.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Dec 13, 2007 3:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You sure this isn't Bob Loblaw's Law Blog?
Wow ! You went way,way back. For an admitted 20 year old you've serious "old school" music knowledge.

I was actually just referring to this one-

My adopted son Matt Downs. He can hit a little.

by nvsfg on Dec 13, 2007 3:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You sure this isn't Bob Loblaw's Law Blog?
I had a bit of an embarrassing Monkees phase when I was 13 and still remember most of it.

That seems to be sampling the song I was referencing anyway!

And I love Deltron 3030, but I've never actually listened to any of Del's solo work... I should check it out.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Dec 13, 2007 3:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Monkees...
I got you beat...I had a Monkees thing at age 11. Sadly, that was when they were "current." <insert old fart joke here>
The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 14, 2007 6:13 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monkees...
I know "zilch" of what you guys are talking about.
Bring me just about anyone, you moron Sabean!!

by rxmeister on Dec 14, 2007 7:59 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Monkees...
I don't get why they keep spelling Monkeys wrong. It's really starting to bug me!
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 14, 2007 11:37 AM PST up reply actions  

Come on, now, Mark...
...I'm pretty sure I've read that you're my age. Let's just all admit we thought The Archies had a cool sound, and that Adam West was brilliant on tv.
The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 15, 2007 4:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You sure this isn't Bob Loblaw's Law Blog?
Del tha Funkee Homosapien is awesome. And he's a local guy!
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Dec 14, 2007 5:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You sure this isn't Bob Loblaw's Law Blog?
With breath so bad it'll melt your ice cream.
Brian Sabean is akin to a treatable form of cancer... just get rid of it before it kills you

by milesntrane on Dec 13, 2007 3:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You sure this isn't Bob Loblaw's Law Blog?
he's a jackass much like a donkey
you will suffer humiliation when the sports team from my area defeats the sports team from your area

by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 13, 2007 3:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You sure this isn't Bob Loblaw's Law Blog?
You sir, are a mouthful.
Barry Zito: Mike Hampton with a guitar

by JakeS on Dec 13, 2007 2:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: You sure this isn't Bob Loblaw's Law Blog?
we just call it a sausage.
you will suffer humiliation when the sports team from my area defeats the sports team from your area

by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 13, 2007 3:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
Andruw Jones for two years and more money would have been a much better signing considering our cap room.  I voted neither, and now I'm voting Thank Christ we didn't trade Lincecum.
you will suffer humiliation when the sports team from my area defeats the sports team from your area

by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 13, 2007 1:45 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Cap room?
It's a head size thing.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 13, 2007 2:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Cap room?
you know what I mean.  Bonds, Morris, Benitez contracts off the books.  We have money to play with, and we would've better off giving more of it to Andruw and getting him out the door faster.
you will suffer humiliation when the sports team from my area defeats the sports team from your area

by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 13, 2007 3:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Cap room?
The team pays Bonds about $25,000,000 over the next 4 seasons due to deferred payments. that doesn't even include the interest on some of that.
Bonds stands alone.

by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 13, 2007 4:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Cap room?
It is correct that the team has several players to whom they owed deferred monies.  But you are wrong if you are saying that reduces the teams budget for any particular year.  The deferred monies are in a separate budgetary category, just as payments for the stadium or for the announcers are in separate categories.  So, if the Gs budget for, say, '08, is $100 mil, that is exclusive of any deferred monies.

by allfrank on Dec 13, 2007 8:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Deferred money
Are you certain about this, Frank? That seems counterintuitive to me. Although I have no degree in business or finance, and am simply happy to balance my checkbook each month. It seems to me that the cost of this year's team includes whatever deferred monies you are paying out. At least, that's how I look at my Visa payments.
The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 14, 2007 6:16 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Deferred money
Yes, I am certain.  Actually, it is a directive of MLB (or maybe the CBA) - the teams are required to, essentially, guarantee that money, and make it a separate expenditure so that there is certainty (and clarity of budgeting) that the payments will be made.  Esentially, the money is 'guaranteed' when the contract is signed.  But it is not like, say, year 3 of a players contract.  The operating budget for the 25 man roster is different than other monies.  Deferred monies are in a separate 'account,' are guaranteed, and are not part of the team's announced payroll.

by allfrank on Dec 14, 2007 12:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Deferred money
Wow. Interesting. So comparing teams' announced budgets is misleading, because we don't know what's in their "deferred" budget. That sounds an awful lot like our federal budget, social security, etc.

Thanks for the info.

The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 15, 2007 3:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
Andruw Jones for five years and more money would have been a much better signing, imho.

It will be interesting to see how those two compare over the next few years. They represent the first real Sabean/Colletti head-to-head player-evaluation smackdown.

by Evan on Dec 13, 2007 2:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
Andruw Jones wasn't coming here for two years and more money. As a 30 year old, he's going to be back on the market again at a fairly young age, and he'll be looking to reclaim his reputation as the best centefielder in the game. Playing two years in the wind and cold of a pitcher's ballpark made no sense for him. We Giant fans have to face some sad realities. Most major league players prefer big markets like NY, LA and Chicago, and they like warm summers where they can lie on the beach. The Giants will ALWAYS have to overpay with both money and years to get top players.
Bring me just about anyone, you moron Sabean!!

by rxmeister on Dec 14, 2007 6:02 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
i disagree with you milesntrane, but i'm glad someone is happy about the signing.  maybe someday I will be too.

by kennv on Dec 13, 2007 3:03 PM PST reply actions  

Aaron Rowand
ESPN was showing some hi-lights of Rowand last night. Was very encouraged that in many of his ABs he hit the ball to all fields rather than attempting to pull everything. Hopefully between new hitting instructor Carney Lansford and some input form Rowand, the Giants hitters will use the entire field at ATT. Would not be surprised if Rowand gets a splash hit.

by wilriv21 on Dec 13, 2007 3:10 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Aaron Rowand
...I would.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Dec 13, 2007 3:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Aaron Rowand
As would I.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Dec 13, 2007 3:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Aaron Rowand
Yeah... I just don't see it happening either.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 13, 2007 5:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Aaron Rowand
Me four.  The good news is that none of Aaron's home-field home runs appeared to cheapies, so while I would expect some decline no matter where he plays, I don't expect a horrible drop off over the five years in AT&T.

by sharksrog on Dec 13, 2007 10:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Aaron Rowand
They showed him hitting well because they were showing highlights.  Most players will have some opposite field hits when they are hitting well.  That really doesn't tell us anything about what kind of a hitter he is or is going to be.
Steve Kline: How okay is he, really? I would say he is pretty okay.

by groug on Dec 13, 2007 3:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Aaron Rowand
So what are you trying to say?
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Dec 13, 2007 3:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Aaron Rowand
I can't figure it out either... :\
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 13, 2007 5:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Aaron Rowand
Sorry, you guys.  Now that I've made PacBellBoozer the official fart joke guy, my posts can go off in any sort of weird baseball-related direction.

What about poo joke guy?  Is that taken?

Steve Kline: How okay is he, really? I would say he is pretty okay.

by groug on Dec 13, 2007 9:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Aaron Rowand
I would be surprised if he has a splash hit. He had 17 home runs at Citizen's bank last year, only three to right field, and none down the right field line (which is where he'd have to hit it to reach the water). In 2006 he only hit one of 6 homers to right field. 2005 was more balanced with 3 of 8, but in 2004 only 2 of 12 home home-runs went to right field (one went to dead center).

He may spray grounders and liners around, but his power is pretty much exclusively to his pull field.

Fool me seven times, shame on you. Fool me eight or more times, shame on me.

by Bhaakon on Dec 13, 2007 4:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Aaron Rowand
Do you know how many right handed hitters have splash hits? I think maybe Sosa did it, but that's it. Rowand will never have a splash hit unless he turns into Mickey Mantle.
Bonds stands alone.

by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 13, 2007 4:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Turning into The Mick
He could always change his name to 7. Or start dunking his doughnuts. Couldn't hurt.

by UnleashTheGore on Dec 14, 2007 11:52 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
Oh, just to add a little sumpin' sumpin'... Rowand is a proven Champion.  Two world series, CSU Fullerton and White Sox.
Brian Sabean is akin to a treatable form of cancer... just get rid of it before it kills you

by milesntrane on Dec 13, 2007 3:58 PM PST reply actions  

CSU Fullerton baseball program
is the breeding ground for Domino's Delivery Drivers.

by E Ticket on Dec 13, 2007 7:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: CSU Fullerton baseball program
I'm not really sure that is fair.
Brian Sabean is akin to a treatable form of cancer... just get rid of it before it kills you

by milesntrane on Dec 17, 2007 4:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
Rowand is overrated, defensively. He didn't deserve a gold glove this year at all. I don't think he's a defensive upgrade to Davis in center. Rowand might have been the best CF available... would someone better, or similar and cheaper, be available next year? Or the year after that? Because we won't be competing next year. I doubt Rowand will be worth the money in 3 of the 5 years we're paying him for. He's not gonna hit 27 homers in this park, hopefully he hits 15 and doesn't break his face again.

I like the guy though. I really do. If last year's clubhouse was as crappy and lazy as it's sounds, maybe he'll give this team some kind of gritty shot in the arm... but I'd rather try to develop Davis/Lewis in '08. And couldn't we just not play our crappy 35 year olds and get a similar effect?

Southern California: Water thieves and Dodgers fans.

by jasomack on Dec 13, 2007 6:45 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
Or maybe he'll just piss off all the lazy guys. It's not like there's going to be alot of turnover on the roster, and the root cause of the crappy atmosphere, losing, isn't going anywhere.
Fool me seven times, shame on you. Fool me eight or more times, shame on me.

by Bhaakon on Dec 13, 2007 7:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
That's what I was thinking, Bhaakon. I have this vision of Rowand bobbing around demanding high-fives and yelling at guys to "get psyched" in his best WWF voice, and everyone just kind of glaring at his raised hand and then rolling their eyes as they turn away from him and crank their iPod.
Didn't you used to be Barry Zito?

by VidaWantsYourCar on Dec 13, 2007 8:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
As I( have often said, I do not buy into the doom and gloom.  It looks to me like the team is being put together in a fashion very similar to the way the Tigers put themselves together - only without the 15 consecutive years of losing.
  Without talking about '09 or '10, there is some reason to hope for '08, as opposed to just assume losing.  Sp pitching is significantly better.  RP is an unknown at this point, but likely to be better (Munter is already gone).  The defesne is already better (Rowan + LF + Frandsen).  The big worry is the offense.
  Everyone likes to say we were last in the league in O.  Well, every team in the NLW, except Colo, was in the bottom half of the league (park effects).  Az outscored us by 30 runs, LA by 50, SD by 60.  This is not exactly an insurmountable obstacle; it is about 2 runs a week.  Even without Bonds, I like our OF.  The question is can/will 160 games of Rowand make up for 115 games of Bonds?  Catcher is about the same.  I expect a modest bounce back by Omar.  I expect much improved production at 2b (whether Durham or Frandsen, maybe we get something apporaching Ort's 280 production and, hopefully, we get a little better at 3b.  Even if Feliz returns, I don't see us being weaker anywhere, and possible improved O at 1b, 2b, SS, and maybe SS.
  AS we all know, we only won 39 of 94 1 or 2 run games last year.  A simple improvement of 10 games (49/94, 49-45) would put us at 500.  More of the Rowand, Frandsen, Ort attitude and I think our performance in close games improves.  If our SP & RP improves 1 run a week, our O improves 1 run a week and our D improves 2 runs a month, we have nearly a +30 run differential, that is better than that achieved by both Az and LA last year.  I think it is hard to see the team obtaining 90+ wins; but 81-88 is certainly obtainable.

by allfrank on Dec 13, 2007 9:19 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
I agree that 81-88 wins is attainable for the Giants next season, but it would take anywhere from very good luck to outstanding luck to achieve them.

by sharksrog on Dec 13, 2007 10:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
I like the signing.  The Giants were absolutely boring to watch nearly all of last season.  The only full-time position players that came to the park every day with the so called "warrior mentality" or whatever we are calling it today were Randy Winn, Omar, and Bengie.  Nobody else gave a S#&T and it was obvious.  Once Frandsen and Rajai came along, it was a pleasant surprise to see FIVE OUT OF NINE players actually play like it meant something to them.  You can't win in baseball with only 5 guys who care.  Watching Bonds play Lazy-Z Boy left field, Durham jog out hits so he doesn't pull a hammy that is hanging by a thread, Dave Roberts not pay attention and take horrible routes to balls.  That all made me sick, I would have rather seen the Giants cut them and eat the salary.

Now add Aaron's (can I call him Aaron?) mentality to the club.  When the youngsters (we will have a lot of them by the looks of it) look for guidance on how to play the game, are they going to mock Ray Durham's crippled antics?  Or are they going to model their careers after a guy who plays so hard that he is willing to run face first into a wall to make a play.

Gold glove defense, the most talent at the plate on our team, and an attitude that will rub off on the youngsters that we collectively pray mold into a competitor in a few years, and everyone is bitching about $60 million.  Quit complaining, thats like fricken Ted Lilly money these days.  

by m34josh on Dec 14, 2007 2:27 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...

Rowand is a hard guy to figure out, because of the GOOD-BAD-BAD-GOOD pattern.  I think maybe the schmancy computer programs can look at that and say "Batting average driven high variance offense" and make some projections... but there is a pretty bad injury in there too.

I think I did determine the REAL reason Sabean signed him - and that's because he won't have Randy Winn forever, so he needs his RW replacement over then next 5 years.

Rowand improves the team, as Law says, by 1-2 wins.  Could be more in the years he hits .310, but less when he hits .265.  

The downside is giving up a 2nd rounder (which could be useful in 4-5 years) and adding another log to the log jam.

I guess the big problem is that there are no decent 3B/1B FA options at all.

by zenbitz on Dec 14, 2007 9:37 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
Think of it as trading a Jackson Williams for Rowand.  Why, that'd be a steal.

by allfrank on Dec 14, 2007 12:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
Well, yes and no.  How much will good will Williams be to the Giants (or whomever they trade him to) in 5 years, when the Rowand contract is over.

Obviously, for 2008-2010 Rowand >>> Williams.  But last I checked we still have to field a team in 2011.

Now, I am not totally opposed to trading 2011 for 2008, but for Aaron Rowand and $12M/year?

Of course, Sabean's contract is up again in 2010, so  maybe he don't care about 2011.

by zenbitz on Dec 14, 2007 12:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
  Law is a decent read, this time no exception,   but  I think he is a bit beyond the pale  with the walks  as support for Rowand's supposed lack of plate discipline. Maybe I  am just picking nits here but here I go.

   Rowand had 438 ( out of  659 for `07) hitting in the #5 hole. There is a successful school of baseball thought that says your 3-5 hitters are supposed to be aggressive and  bring runners in.   23 ( 23 is the amount of non intentional walks )/ 438 =  roughly 5.3% walk rate.  When Rowland had 87 plate appearance with  11 walks bating form the #7 hole  the rate when up  12.6%.  To me that suggests a player altering his game to fill the role he is assigned  and to do that he has to have fairly high degree of plate discipline.

  Just for a points of comparison Dave Roberts had  38 walks in 410 P.A's as a lead off hitter for 9.3% walk rate.   Jose ( NYM) Reyes 64 non IBB walks in 765 Plate appearances ( 8.4%)  as a lead off hitter. A place in the batting order were it is even more important to be able to draw a walk.  David Wright ( NYM) had 16 non IBB walks during 173 PA's in the 5 hole (  9.2% ).  Kotchman ( Ana) 20 walks in 258 Plate appearances  hitting #5  ( 7.8% ).

All Stats courtesy of baseball-reffence.com.

by daveinexile on Dec 14, 2007 10:01 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
There is a successful school of baseball thought that says your 3-5 hitters are supposed to be aggressive and  bring runners in.

This school is the equivalent of Oral Roberts University.  Sanctimonius, but behind the times.

by zenbitz on Dec 14, 2007 12:24 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
What? I think you're being a little reductive about the meaning of the word "aggressive" here.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2007 12:52 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
On second thought I think dave is being a little reductive about that word and you are just responding to his point. Not with explanation or anything, but still, just responding.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 15, 2007 12:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
What I mean is that 5% walk rate is bad. Pedro Feliz had a 5% BB/PA last year. 10% is decent, I might say a good baseline.

I would like to see 13%+ (Adam Dunn, career, 16.8%)

by zenbitz on Dec 16, 2007 5:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Laying Down the Law...
I am not against a  hart of the order guy that can walk.  Just wondering how it squares with his bettering results when Rowand is out of the hart of the order. Should I read that a head thing? Management decree? Phase of the moon among the astrological house?

You mentioned Feliz ( Current Giants record holder for avoiding walks) he had 31 PA with 2 BB in the 5 hole. Not big enough sample size in my eyes. 76 Plate appearances in the 3-5 spots with  4 BB comes out to about his 5% rate.  Were the Feliz comparison looks interesting it 343 PA's with 17 BB in the 7 hole. It stays around 5% were Rowand's went up.

by daveinexile on Dec 16, 2007 8:04 PM PST up reply actions  

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