Risk aversion
If we make minimal moves this offseason it won't be the end of the world, and certainly better than making the numerous bad moves that have been mentioned, but there's on thing that i've found irritating about this offseason & that's managements continual policy of risk aversion.
I don't mean trading Lincecum type risks, that's just being foolhardy, but why does this organisation continually value the ordinary & safe option over the higher potential & more risky option?
It permeates everything they do, in front office selection, in managerial choices, in treatment of young players, in free agency, in trades.
We'd rather resign the incumbent Sabean than look elsewhere. We'd rather sign a safe option like Bochy than an unproven like Acta or Black. We'd rather a mediocre veteran like Aurilia than a young player like Frandsen. We'd rather resign Feliz than take a risk on Iwamura transfering to the US. We'd rather buy high on someone coming off a good year like Rowand than buy low on someone coming off a bad year like Andruw Jones or Sexson. We'd rather the known qualities of Hillenbrand & Chulk over the unproven Accardo.
If we continue this policy we're going to struggle as we have recently, because there are others who won't & will gain the rewards. This is unusually negative for me, but i just thought i'd make the point.
To use a terrible & pointless analogy in Soccer, it's like always settling for the safety of a draw over going for a win. The problem is, if you take a risk, win & lose some, you'll end up with more points than just drawing them all, because it's not a linear progression
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Re: Risk aversion
by Lyle on Dec 12, 2007 5:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Risk aversion
So only non-risky risks?
As much as I want to see the trifecta of The Enchanter, Bobby Hill and Noah (the only reason Lowry's included is my soft spot for my namesake). A risk with a potential huge reward or a huge set-back is trading Tim or Matt for the right pieces. Even to Toronto.
While the Rios straight-up deal is asinine I could understand a deal which included Rios, Lind, and other parts back and forth. A risk? Certainly. But it could work out (or it coule be the Next Beating a Dead Horse.jpg).
And while I'd miss Tim or Matt if the right trade did come alone that brought two ML ready (at least one, preferably two being position players) prospects I think I'd support it after the shock wore off.
by noahthek on Dec 12, 2007 7:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Risk aversion
I didn't mean trading Lincecum generally, as under the right circumstances that'd be a risk well worth taking.
by GiantFan on Dec 12, 2007 8:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Risk aversion
Rios is a proven major league commodity. His ceiling probably isn't much higher than it is now, but he put up pretty solid numbers last year, so he's proven he can perform at the major league level.
Tim Lincecum has most of one season under his belt at the ML level. That basically means he's sort of a proven commodity, but nobody quite seems to know how to evaluate his career curve or chances for injury. It's the injury risk that ultimately makes him an unknown, despite his lack of injury history. I also remember reading something that commented that since he has to put his full body into his delivery, he might not be much more of an injury risk, but by the time he hits 30, there's a good chance he'll really get tired and lose some velocity and effectiveness.
That said, it makes Rios a safe bet to be an effective everyday player for years to come, while Lincecum is more of a risky proposition. Hence, trading Lincecum for Rios would be considered a very safe move, and GiantFan's point validated.
And yes, I'd FAR rather keep Lincecum than trade for Rios. Lincecum is just starting out, and even if he loses his effectiveness around 30-33, that's at least 6 years of success from him. And since he's five years removed from free agency, we'd probably only have to give him one insane contract, right Rainman? =)
by JRPhillips on Dec 12, 2007 10:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Risk aversion
by sharksrog on Dec 12, 2007 12:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Risk aversion
by JRPhillips on Dec 12, 2007 12:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Risk aversion
So then it come down to whether the fan base has the grit to keep sitting at the high stakes card game called young arm development or want the safe way out. For every couple of Proir, Woods, Zambrano ( Cubs `02) collections that don't meet expectations there is usually one collection of exception young arms that do what Zito, Mulder & Hudson did for the A's in the same time period. Less then a handful of teams get to sit at the table in say any 5 year period. This time around we are at the table. Why are so many so anxious to sell that seat for the distant hope of prolonged mediocrity?
by daveinexile on Dec 12, 2007 9:03 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Risk aversion
If they were really interested in Fukudome AND Rowand, isn't it considered riskier to place Fukudome ahead of Rowand in your priority queue?
by sfgfan on Dec 12, 2007 9:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Risk aversion
But if Sabean has got to bring one of those Outfielders home I would lean towards Fukudome because the state of the roster make this a time to take gambles that have a higher end. Rowland is pretty much a known commodity around the MLB while Fulkudome is not. If Fulkudome establishes a good part of his game translates well the MLB then his value would be hirer next year or the year after that then his value is now. Only way Rowland's value is higher is if a team has screaming need for him in a play off push.
by daveinexile on Dec 12, 2007 10:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Risk aversion
by sfgfan on Dec 12, 2007 10:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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