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Risk aversion

If we make minimal moves this offseason it won't be the end of the world, and certainly better than making the numerous bad moves that have been mentioned, but there's on thing that i've found irritating about this offseason & that's managements continual policy of risk aversion.

I don't mean trading Lincecum type risks, that's just being foolhardy, but why does this organisation continually value the ordinary & safe option over the higher potential & more risky option?

It permeates everything they do, in front office selection, in managerial choices, in treatment of young players, in free agency, in trades.

We'd rather resign the incumbent Sabean than look elsewhere. We'd rather sign a safe option like Bochy than an unproven like Acta or Black. We'd rather a mediocre veteran like Aurilia than a young player like Frandsen. We'd rather resign Feliz than take a risk on Iwamura transfering to the US. We'd rather buy high on someone coming off a good year like Rowand than buy low on someone coming off a bad year like Andruw Jones or Sexson. We'd rather the known qualities of Hillenbrand & Chulk over the unproven Accardo.

If we continue this policy we're going to struggle as we have recently, because there are others who won't & will gain the rewards. This is unusually negative for me, but i just thought i'd make the point.

To use a terrible & pointless analogy in Soccer, it's like always settling for the safety of a draw over going for a win. The problem is, if you take a risk, win & lose some, you'll end up with more points than just drawing them all, because it's not a linear progression

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: Risk aversion
You are correct, sir!
The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle on Dec 12, 2007 5:58 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Risk aversion
I don't mean trading Lincecum type risks, that's just being foolhardy, but why does this organisation continually value the ordinary & safe option over the higher potential & more risky option?

So only non-risky risks?

As much as I want to see the trifecta of The Enchanter, Bobby Hill and Noah (the only reason Lowry's included is my soft spot for my namesake). A risk with a potential huge reward or a huge set-back is trading Tim or Matt for the right pieces. Even to Toronto.

While the Rios straight-up deal is asinine I could understand a deal which included Rios, Lind, and other parts back and forth. A risk? Certainly. But it could work out (or it coule be the Next Beating a Dead Horse.jpg).

And while I'd miss Tim or Matt if the right trade did come alone that brought two ML ready (at least one, preferably two being position players) prospects I think I'd support it after the shock wore off.

Do they know to win the game a team has to actually score at least once?

by noahthek on Dec 12, 2007 7:52 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Risk aversion
Sorry, by that i meant taking a Lincecum for Rios type risk.

I didn't mean trading Lincecum generally, as under the right circumstances that'd be a risk well worth taking.

by GiantFan on Dec 12, 2007 8:09 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Risk aversion
Look at the Lincecum for Rios trade this way:

Rios is a proven major league commodity.  His ceiling probably isn't much higher than it is now, but he put up pretty solid numbers last year, so he's proven he can perform at the major league level.

Tim Lincecum has most of one season under his belt at the ML level.  That basically means he's sort of a proven commodity, but nobody quite seems to know how to evaluate his career curve or chances for injury.  It's the injury risk that ultimately makes him an unknown, despite his lack of injury history.  I also remember reading something that commented that since he has to put his full body into his delivery, he might not be much more of an injury risk, but by the time he hits 30, there's a good chance he'll really get tired and lose some velocity and effectiveness.

That said, it makes Rios a safe bet to be an effective everyday player for years to come, while Lincecum is more of a risky proposition.  Hence, trading Lincecum for Rios would be considered a very safe move, and GiantFan's point validated.

And yes, I'd FAR rather keep Lincecum than trade for Rios.  Lincecum is just starting out, and even if he loses his effectiveness around 30-33, that's at least 6 years of success from him.  And since he's five years removed from free agency, we'd probably only have to give him one insane contract, right Rainman?  =)

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Dec 12, 2007 10:46 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Risk aversion
Lincecum for Rios is a case where the safe move likely isnt the prudent one.

by sharksrog on Dec 12, 2007 12:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Risk aversion
Absolutely agree.  100%.  But it's very possible or likely that Sabean is considering this move precisely because it IS a safe move, regardless of prudence.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Dec 12, 2007 12:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Risk aversion
It funny you should mention risk aversion. Reading  a lot of last week ends posts made me realize the lager amount of Giants fans are risk averse then I would have previously guessed.  My rational for this statement is what is usually argument A.1 in the pro trade  Lincecume camp, " he could get hurt and never deliver on his huge potential." I think we all agree if a Hershel Walker type trade was offered you would have to invent  a reason not to take it. But with no package remotely like that on the table that point is a canard at best.

 So then it come down to whether the fan base has the grit to keep sitting at the high stakes card game called young  arm development or want the safe way out.   For every couple of Proir, Woods, Zambrano ( Cubs `02) collections that don't meet expectations there is usually one collection of exception  young arms that  do what Zito, Mulder & Hudson did for the A's in the same time period.  Less then a handful of teams get to sit at the table in say any 5 year period.  This time around we are at the table. Why are so many so anxious  to sell that seat  for the distant hope of prolonged mediocrity?

by daveinexile on Dec 12, 2007 9:03 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Risk aversion
I don't know.  If they were really in the running for Fukudome, I'd say that's a very big risk right there.  Committing that much money to a player where there is no idea of how he'll translate into the majors is a very big risk.

If they were really interested in Fukudome AND Rowand, isn't it considered riskier to place Fukudome ahead of Rowand in your priority queue?

by sfgfan on Dec 12, 2007 9:47 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Risk aversion
 On one hand  we have Rowland who seems to have very up one year down the next career. So it turns into is the glass half empty or half full question with him. I think the Giants are far enough out of things with position players and  they already have questionable pieces to fill his roster slot  so why bother? Fukudome  benefits because a lot of Giants fans believe a poor man's Ichro would be electric in May's Field and most of the NL West parks. Personally  I am not sold that either man is a must have.  If one is signed Roberts and/or Winn has to go. Giving Bochy 3 veterans means Davis, Nate  et all should just play in Fresno all year. The franchise can't afford that.

 But if Sabean has got to bring one of those Outfielders home I would lean towards Fukudome because the state of the roster make this a time to take  gambles that have a higher end.  Rowland is  pretty much a known commodity around the MLB while Fulkudome is not.  If Fulkudome establishes  a good part of his game translates well the MLB then his value would be hirer next year or the year after that  then his value is now. Only way Rowland's value is higher is if a team has screaming need for him in a play off push.

by daveinexile on Dec 12, 2007 10:11 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Risk aversion
Basically... Fukudome is a bigger risk, which is what I was saying.  The original diary post suggested the Giants were playing it safe, while I pointed out one instance that isn't really safe at all.

by sfgfan on Dec 12, 2007 10:54 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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