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Around SBN: Are The Orioles Bad Or Unlucky With Their Young Pitching?

Value

174246766_ea2fd78204_tiny by Grant Brisbee on in News

As an altar boy at the Church of Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio, I understand why folks are leery of Noah Lowry. I can't get the old strike-'em-out Lowry out of my head, so I probably overvalue him. Still, I was surprised to read this in several of the Matsui rumors:

Though the Yankees likely can't pry Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain from the Giants and aren't wild about Noah Lowry, they have interest in lefty Jonathan Sanchez, who appeared in 33 games last year and made four starts.
I would never have guessed that Sanchez would be more valuable to teams than Lowry. It's true that Lowry wears a loincloth stitched from red flags -- the aforementioned K/BB ratio and injury concerns are impossible to ignore -- but, fer cryin' out loud, it isn't as if the guy has been messing the bed for his entire major league career. Why can he only bring back 50 cents on the dollar?

Aaron Cook signed a three-year, $30M extension yesterday. There probably isn't a better comparison to Lowry in the league. Cook has an identical career ERA+ (109), a similarly wretched K/BB, and an even spottier injury history. There is some value for Cook specific to Colorado, as it's nice to know a pitcher can succeed at Coors rather than hope, but it seems like this is a fair contract with which to evaluate Lowry's market price. So if Cook was extended at market value, and if you buy the Cook/Lowry comparison, Lowry will be underpaid by $14M over the next three years.

"Here, team. Here's a league-average pitcher with $14M in savings. What would you give us?" is the question. We don't really know the answers that Sabean has been getting back. We know tidbits like this from the Mercury News:

Other teams are asking about left-hander Noah Lowry, but a source said Giants officials have been shocked by low-ball offers and doubt they will trade the 14-game winner.
While there are GMs who would consider factors other than K/BB ratio, it's possible that only one would ignore K/BB ratio completely...and he happens to be the one trying to make the trade. My evidence that Sabean ignores those kind of stats is pretty conclusive, so I'm wondering what constitutes "low-ball offers."
Sabean: I'd like Jason Bay, and I'm willing to offer Noah Lowry straight up.

Huntington: Uh, that's not going to be enough. That's a start we can work with, though. Or could we build a different package around, say, Steven Pearce?

Sabean: An unproven player? I'm insulted. Good day.

Later that day

Sabean: I'd like Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Hamilton. Note that most of those players are unproven, but I'm willing to offer Noah Lowry for the three.

Krivsky: Hmm. I'm going to have to decline this one, but I'm willing to talk about a package that includes one of those players.

Sabean: Are you freaking kidding me? Am I in some other reality? Have I been prescribed medication that I forgot to take? Why doesn't anyone want a young pitcher with 14 wins? He even got those wins on a bad team! Fourteen wins, people. Fourteen! I'm just going to take my ball and go home. Kick your own damn tires, pal.

Do you think this is close, or do you really think that teams are offering mediocre A-ball prospects for Lowry?

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Re: Value
I think that Sabes eliminated any chance of getting market value for Sanchez or Lowry when he declined to declare Lincecum and Cain off-limits. He further ruined himself on this account by apparently seriously considering Rios-for-Lincecum. In a world where Lincecum equals Rios, then Lowry equals Todd Linden, at best.
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Dec 12, 2007 12:24 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Value
On the other hand, you have Billy Beane with his "Dan Haren is worth almost as much as Johan Santana" position.  That hasn't worked out so well for him.

by achiappanza on Dec 12, 2007 12:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
but that's not really a bad position to take. He doesn't HAVE to trade Haren and is asking for a ton in return for him. He may have been waiting to see what the Angels would do. If they got A-Rod, Cabrera or even Santana, Beane would probably blow the team up and trade Haren, Blanton and Street for as much as he could get knowing that the team would not likely be able to compete with the Angels. Demanding a ton for Haren was probably a way to get the ball rolling without having to make a deal and taking a wait-and-see approach.
Bonds stands alone.

by nostocksjustbonds on Dec 12, 2007 12:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
Since Haren is under contract for three years and Santana for one, you could argue that Haren is worth more than Santana.

by Evan on Dec 12, 2007 12:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
That's only true if it gets the ball rolling.  I imagine it's possible to scare away suitors simply by being too far apart to start.

Witness Boras's position "Let's start the A-Rod bidding at 10 years, $350 million and go up from there."

by achiappanza on Dec 12, 2007 1:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
Ned Colletti makes his bids for both.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Dec 12, 2007 12:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
Well I share your fond memories of Lowry at his peak, and your doubt about Sabean's ability to market properly.

I wonder if the new stats have wormed their way into most trade talks now, and Sabean's unwillingness to keep up is what's given us Dark Brian.

by achiappanza on Dec 12, 2007 12:24 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Value
Sadly, I suspect your dialogue is not far off the mark. Lowry isn't a burner, but he's league-average at worst and would make a lot of semi-contenders that much better down the back half of their rotation.

He's certainly worth Edwin Encarnacion to the Reds...and that's an offer Sabean would be insane not to pounce on.

Of course, Sabean is insane. So there you go.

by drelmoraisin on Dec 12, 2007 12:28 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Value
I don't think the above conversations resemble reality at all.  the Pirates are not looking for more starting pitching and the Reds currently have their eyes on biggger fish like Bedard and Haren and thus are not yet ready to settle for Lowry.

by giantsrainman on Dec 12, 2007 12:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
And here I thought Grant was focusing only on the kinds of players Sabean expected as a return, and his inability to properly value Lowry. Little did he know the hypothetical made up trade partners he chose would come under fire!
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 12, 2007 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
This I understand.  It is the commentor above that I was replying to (not Grant) that does not seem to understand.

by giantsrainman on Dec 12, 2007 1:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
As others have stated, Sabean needs to hold off on trading Lowry until Santana, Bedard, Haren, and Kuroda are off the market. If the Reds and Mariners miss out on these guys then they will hopefully come calling about Lowry ready to offer something worthwhile.
Adopted Giant Brian Wilson: Welcome Back!

by sfgreg on Dec 12, 2007 12:29 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Value
My take is keep Lowry till the trade deadline when a team that is in contention needs a solid lefty starter. They will be so desperate to break the bank that they would do something stupid like trade a top prospect or 2 away. If the market for him is bad right now then hold onto him. He is still capable of winning at least 10 games even with our horrid offense. Dont make a trade just to make it. Please be smart Brian PLEASE
Matt Williams....My Hero!!!

by ACgiant87 on Dec 12, 2007 12:29 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Value
I think we ought to just see how things shake out once the Carlos Silvas and Kyle Lohses have signed.  Teams might be more desperate at that point.
Who dat is? That's just Ortmeier's daddy.

by rotorueter on Dec 12, 2007 12:35 PM PST up reply actions  

value..
..of course, Matsui is a market-rate player now, at best, so true 'value' for him lies in exchanging similar market-rate names, or prospects whose present value is equivalent to a sandwich pick plus a lower pick after he departs a free agent in 2010 -- and that's if you dare offer arbitration.

So, Matsui for Lowry is lowball enough, but Matsui for Sanchez is, in the world in which Gagne is getting $10m, pretty lowball in itself.  Matsui with his current contract should be worth something like Messenger and Timpner.

Of course, this essentially guarantees that our hallowed, idiot GM is going to trade Sanchez and Schierholtz for him.

by wcw on Dec 12, 2007 12:32 PM PST reply actions  

Re: value..
Matsui has an average line over the last 5 years that reads 25/110/.295 The Yankees would not be smart to give up a guy like that for a pitcher like Lowry, who has no experience in the AL, and especially the AL East.  Sanchez for Matsui is a JOKE.  Great, he's young and can throw hard, just like Brian Bruney.  The Yankees signed him, got some decent outings, and didn't even make the post season roster when bullpen help was needed most.  As far as I'm concerned, the Yankees should push for both Lowry and Sanchez, and throw in a mid level prospect because that's all these two are worth right now.  Any Giants fans I've talked to are shocked that the Yankees want to structure this trade around Sanchez and not Lowry.  I'm shocked that they'd give up a guy like Matsui who has persevered in a lineup filled with All-Stars.  And everyone out there says 'well he should produce, look who he's got around him.' No, People, that really doesn't matter when it comes to New York.  The atmosphere around these guys can destroy them because of the pressure, so when you've got a guy like Matsui who thrives under pressure, hold on to him!  Who knows what Lowry and Sanchez are going to to in the Bronx.  All I'm saying is, Yankees, beware.

by japanesebaseball101 on Dec 12, 2007 5:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
The Giants should have predicted that there would be a few superstar pitchers being offered up for trade this offseason that would make Noah look like a no-talent jerk.

Gambling on Noah to improve probably gives us better odds than gambling on a mediocre A-baller to develop into something useful.

Here's to Kemp, Loney, LaRoche, Hu, and Kershaw not panning out.

by Woody Wins on Dec 12, 2007 12:32 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Pearce
Would Steve Pearce be a fair comp for D'Alessio?
  • Both put up OPS of 1+ at major programs their last two seasons in college.
  • Both are 1B.
  • Neither was a high draft pick.
  • While Pearce spent his first pro season in low-A (posting an OPS of 855), D'Alessio was stuck in rookie ball which he rightfully tore up (OPS of 1.000)
Can we hope for a similar progression?

by mxmob33 on Dec 12, 2007 12:41 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Pearce
..probably not.  D'Alessio hit less well in college, is older than Pearce was, and is not only a level lower but did his damage in the AZL, where the ball carries in a way it doesn't in the NYPL.

If D'Allesio blows through both SAL or CAL next year, like Pearce did, then you can hope -- and even then, only a little.

by wcw on Dec 12, 2007 1:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
Aaron Cook has that killer sinker, though. The problem with Lowry, at least the post-killer-changeup Lowry, is that he doesn't have anything resembling an out pitch. Watching him, you can't figure out how he's ever going to get anyone out.

We can always hope that the killer changeup comes back. If all Sabean is getting are offers of overpriced vets and C+ prospects, might as well hold to Lowry and hope for the best. But I don't trust Sabean to be able to tell the difference between a lowball offer and a reasonable one, because he probably overrates a Lowryesque pitcher as much as any GM in the game.

by Evan on Dec 12, 2007 12:50 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Value
Not to be a pessimist, but knowing that Sabean is under pressure (both external and internal) to make some move before the season starts, GMs are probably genuinely low-balling him, figuring he'll blink first and take 50 cents on the dollar. I bet they all smell fear.
Lon Simmons' adopted dad.

by Kitspool on Dec 12, 2007 12:51 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Value
Aaron Rowand huh? I'd call that a move ...

by codedfreaq on Dec 12, 2007 12:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
Great.  The only thing the team has are outfielders, and here they give up two (2) draft picks to sign a guy coming off a career year to a 5-year, $18m/per deal.  I bet he puts up a 740 OPS, on average -- just about what Dave Roberts did over the last three years.  Yeah, that's worth $20m.

On the bright side, Rowand does play really good defense.

by wcw on Dec 12, 2007 1:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
It's actually $12M per year, according to ESPN - not $18M.
All your signature are belong to us.

by EliminateMe on Dec 12, 2007 2:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
Rowand with guys like Utley, Rollins, Howard hitting in the same lineup is good.  Rowand with guys like the 2008 Giants hitting behind or in front of him is going to be ridiculous.  He'll hit .240 with 10 homers and 60 rbi.  And we would pay $12-14 million, if not more per year for it.  No, thank you.

by jwirt19 on Dec 12, 2007 1:09 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Value
Hurray for Rowand's BA and OBP.  Hurray for a decently strong right handed hitter in AT&T/PacBell/SBC Park.  Not for another OF.
If I owned this place and Hell, I'd rent this out and live in Hell...

by ilselu1 on Dec 12, 2007 1:10 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Value
His OBP is better than anything we have, but I don't think that makes it very "yay" worthy....
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 12, 2007 2:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
"The Giants made their first major acquisition of the offseason, signing free-agent center fielder Aaron Rowand to a five-year contract Wednesday.

Terms of the deal were not disclosed, although the value of Rowand's contract was believed to have approached the five-year, $90 million package that Torii Hunter, another free-agent center fielder, recently received from the Los Angeles Angels."

I withdraw my earlier statement... It'll cost us close to 18 mil a year, not 12-14.... wonderful.  Don't get me wrong, I love Rowand and his hard-nosed style of play.  Seems like a great guy/teammate, and a good guy to have on the Giants... but not at this price!

by jwirt19 on Dec 12, 2007 1:16 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Value
Randy Winn 2.0.
Tim Lincecum is the light and truth, and I will enjoy becoming pure energy when he determines it is time to ascend.

by HughG16 on Dec 12, 2007 1:28 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Value
Worse: Dave Roberts 3.1 -- same hitter, better defense.

by wcw on Dec 12, 2007 1:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
I'm not a fan of this signing, but Roberts couldn't hit 27 home runs if he were playing "Bases Loaded." Rowand does have some right-handed pop...in 50% of his seasons, anyways.

by Grant Brisbee on Dec 12, 2007 2:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
Rowand EqA the last four years: .292, .252, .252, .294
Roberts EqA for the same years: .260, .283, .283, .253

On the one hand, Rowand's two bad years are as bad as or worse than Roberts' two bad years.  On the other, you have a point: Rowand's two good years are .010 EqA points better than Roberts' two good years.

Splitting the difference implies Rowand will be a .005 EqA-point upgrade with the bat over Roberts.

I think I stand by my 'Roberts 3.1' comment.

by wcw on Dec 12, 2007 3:53 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
EqA is one thing, but Dave Roberts has never cracked 10 homers or 20 doubles in a season. The park adjustments of EqA give Roberts credit because he played in spacious parks like Dodger Stadium and Chavez Ravine, but I'm not sure they should. If anything, a spacious outfield is a benefit to Roberts's stats, not a hindrance.

Apples and oranges, regardless of the EqAs.  

by Grant Brisbee on Dec 12, 2007 4:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
Grant - Excuse my ignorance, but aren't Dodger Stadium and Chavez Ravine usually referring to the same park?

by aGIANTfan on Dec 13, 2007 1:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
Durrrr. Brain leak. Sorry about that. I meant Dodger Stadium and Petco Park.

by Grant Brisbee on Dec 13, 2007 7:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
Am I the only one who looks at that table and thinks "A-ha!  Single alien hopping between two players"

Sabean's an Alien Genius!  No matter WHICH player the Alien picks, we will get the good one!

Geeze, I hope Bochy's smart enough to play the infested guy.

by zenbitz on Dec 12, 2007 10:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Value
My hope was rewarded with THIS
Praying nightly that the annual Giants horrid FA pickup is avoided this time around.

by Speedforthewin on Dec 12, 2007 2:51 PM PST reply actions  

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