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Cabrera to San Francisco?

Avillalona08428309bb_tiny by AngelintheInfield on

"The Giants would also appear to be a prime candidate to enter the bidding. They have top young starters to offer in Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Noah Lowry, and a talented young reliever in Jonathan Sanchez." - SI.com

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/11/07/scoop.wednesday/index.html

Star-divide

This was the big story on SI's MLB page today. Cabrera is an offensive force, and his numbers would translate well in Mays Field. However, I'm still leery of giving up Tim or Cain... I would give them anyone else.

He'd be cheaper for a few years than A-ROD, and could probably be signed to an extension. He's younger, and is already NL ready.

Possibility of Lowry, Sanchez, and anyone else (Not Cain, Villalona, or Lincecum) for Cabrera?

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Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
I'd love to get him, but I don't really want to give up Matt or Tim and I think other teams could possibly outbid a package centered around Lowry/Sanchez.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Nov 7, 2007 12:05 PM PST   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Too fat, too much money. Plus, he starts pouting the minute he steps off the plane.

by lunaticfringe1 on Nov 7, 2007 12:07 PM PST   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
I really don't get why everyone harps on his weight so much, the dude can hit, who cares if he's a little chunky?

I don't want to date him, I just want him to hit well for my team, which he's done every year. He's been almost a 10 win player over the last two years,  thats near Pujols territory.

by xanthan on Nov 7, 2007 12:09 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
He's approaching Kevin Mitchell level in terms of weight...

by lunaticfringe1 on Nov 7, 2007 12:12 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
I don't care if he's Jaba The Hut, if he OPS's over 900 every year, he can do whatever he wants. The man can hit.

by xanthan on Nov 7, 2007 12:13 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
You would invest $20M in a man who cares nothing about his conditioning and has shown a history of bad clubhouse karma/chemistry?

by lunaticfringe1 on Nov 7, 2007 12:15 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Clubhouse chemistry is one of the most overrated things ever. David Eckstein and Darin Erstand have awesome clubhouse chemistry, lets sign them.

I would invest $20M in a guy thats one of the top hitters in the entire game

by xanthan on Nov 7, 2007 12:16 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Hasn't Eckstein been on two World Series winning teams?

I'm not saying we should get him, but I AM saying he shouldn't be the example you're throwing out to make your point here.  It would be like saying if speed is what gets you to the playoffs, maybe we should get Kenny Lofton.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 7, 2007 12:25 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
The Giants would have been better served signing Kenny Lofton a year ago to a one-year contract rather than signing Dave Roberts to a three-year pact.

To me, that signing clearly shows that Brian Sabean doesn't know how to build a team.  Apparently he was hoping to catch "lightning in a bottle," as he so often does.  But the Giants greatly improved their team speed last season, and see where it got them?

It was their hitting and power hitting that they needed to improve.  A higher OBP and a higher SLG.

by sharksrog on Nov 7, 2007 2:16 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
David Eckstein winning two World Series rings is like Luxembourg winning two world wars.
you will suffer humiliation when the sports team from my area defeats the sports team from your area

by nick on Nov 7, 2007 4:40 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Not at all.  David didn't do this by himself he had allies (the other players on the roster).  It is like Luxenbourg being on the side or the US, England, France, etc in World War I and II.

by giantsrainman on Nov 7, 2007 4:51 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
that's his point.

luxembourg did jack shit during the war.  they diddnt win it.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Nov 7, 2007 5:00 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
My mistake.  I guess I misunderstood.

by giantsrainman on Nov 7, 2007 9:10 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Nick's comment about like Luxembourg winning two wars is completely right.  Eckstein didn't do it himself, he was pretty much along for the ride.

BUT, he was part of two World Series winning teams.  So the point is, holding him up as a shining example of clubhuose chemistry that DOESN'T help you win is a bad example.  Perhaps saying someone like...  Randy Winn, would be a better example.  Again, the reason is Eckstein's been there - TWICE - while Randy kind of hasn't.

Kind of self-explanatory, I thought.  But I'm happy to outline every facet of the point being made when necessary.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 8, 2007 8:19 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
well, there is always the hope that maybe getting him out of the baseball hellhole that is Miami would help him get more motivated to stay in shape and keep a good attitude.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Nov 7, 2007 12:17 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
If we do get Cabrera, perhaps this is where Vizquel's signing could come in handy.   Venezuelan players completely worship Omar, and he might be set the job of mentoring a guy like Cabrera on and off the field. Omar's in Caracas right now to do a short stint with the Leones in winter ball; I'm almost certain that Cabrera is going there too.

Personally, I hope the Giants get Cabrera.  That kid's got natural ability--he reminds me of a young Manny Ramirez--but it's a shame he's been making a bad name for himself in Florida.  

by Widget on Nov 7, 2007 2:22 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
My personal concern is that if he continues putting on weight, he's putting his health at serious risk.  A 900 OPS doesn't do any good if he's dead or on the DL all the time.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 7, 2007 12:16 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Clearly his weight has really hurt him so far.

Oh wait.

I just think the weight issue is really, really, overblown.

by xanthan on Nov 7, 2007 12:17 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
like his ass
"They can trade me," Bonds said. "I don't think they will, though. It's not like I want to be traded, man. I'm a Giant. I'm stuck here till the end."!

by GameSix on Nov 7, 2007 12:20 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
LOL
"Let's not forget ... the great team he was handed." -Hank Steinbrenner

by Woody Wins on Nov 7, 2007 2:38 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
At 25, it's not necessarily a big deal.  At 30, it's a deal.  At 35, it's a really big deal.

Looking at it from the perspective, you'd be getting at least five years where it doesn't matter.  Okay, I'm cool with that.  But I think it would be imperative that our training staff get him to get physically fit.

Still, I wouldn't trade him for Cain or Lincecum straight up.  I'd want him paired with a good bat (considering Cabrera to be a great bat) before I'd make that move.  Personal opinion, you don't have to like it.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 7, 2007 12:22 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
get back to me when it starts affecting (effecting? dammit I always mix up that part) his hitting.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Nov 7, 2007 12:14 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
But Jponry, he wouldn't look good in a bathing suit!

/cries

by xanthan on Nov 7, 2007 12:15 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Banana hammock!
Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 7, 2007 1:06 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Affecting.

I don't get it. He has a round face, but he doesn't look all that fat to me.

by Evan on Nov 7, 2007 12:21 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Nah, the guy is gonna be moved to 1B pretty soon.  

I'd rather just go after a Teixeira or Dunn for 2009 if we are going to invest in a first-baseman of the future.  Those guys wouldn't cost any talent at least, and the team might even be in a buying position by then.

Who dat is? That's just Ortmeier's daddy.

by rotorueter on Nov 7, 2007 12:08 PM PST   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Yeah, a career .332/.420/.620 line from 1B would be terrible. In case you haven't noticed, we haven't had a good 1B hitter since the days of Clark and JT Snow at Candlestick.

by xanthan on Nov 7, 2007 12:10 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
yeah, exactly, having Miggy Cabs at first base... would still be a really really good player.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Nov 7, 2007 12:12 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Did you read my whole entry?

My point is that, as a 3rd baseman he might warrant some talent, but as a 1st baseman he doesn't represent our only option.  Why give up pitching if we don't have to?

Who dat is? That's just Ortmeier's daddy.

by rotorueter on Nov 7, 2007 12:17 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
I'm not saying I'd trade Cain or Lincecum for him, but I'm saying that if he could be had around Lowry and Sanchez, I'd pull the trigger.

Does moving to 1B make him less of a hitter? Who are our other options at 1B? He's a better hitter than Tex and Dunn, and younger.

by xanthan on Nov 7, 2007 12:19 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
I just don't think a deal is possible without Tim or Cain.  I'd part with Lowry, Sanchez, Correia, and Fred Lewis for him in a second.
Who dat is? That's just Ortmeier's daddy.

by rotorueter on Nov 7, 2007 1:14 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
It may be, or it might not be, who knows, but the point is that Miguel Cabrera can swing the bat regardless of his weight.

by xanthan on Nov 7, 2007 2:23 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
No disagreement there.
Who dat is? That's just Ortmeier's daddy.

by rotorueter on Nov 7, 2007 6:42 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
If Miguel Cabrera could be had without trading Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain, I would be willing to part with virtually every trade-eligible player the Giants have in the majors or minors.

But without Lincecum or Cain, I can't imagine the Marlins pulling the trigger.

by sharksrog on Nov 7, 2007 2:18 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Phew...if SI reported it then it must be false.  Thank god.  The only way I would want the big fatty is if Hanley came with him.
Brian Wilson for Closer!

by BawLa on Nov 7, 2007 12:09 PM PST   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Are you serious? All things being equal, you wouldn't want Miguel Cabrera on your team? I can understand thinking the price is too high, but he's 25 years old and has a career OPS+ of 143 (150+ the last three years). He may be a fatty and he may have a poor attitude (which possibly stems from playing with the Marlins), but the dude is a badass hitter.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Nov 7, 2007 12:11 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
I hear ya- there's a lot of insanity on this website lately.

On the other hand, if weight is such an issue, maybe the Brewers will just flat out release Prince Fielder, as he's about twice as big as Miguel Cabrera, and he can be one of these "other" first base options available to us that rotoreuter was referring to.

Remember everyone: a "fat" athlete is still an athlete. Odds are any one of these guys is in several times better shape than any of us.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Nov 7, 2007 12:29 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
I'll take all of the fat athletes out there as long as they each cost us less than Cain or Lincecum.
Who dat is? That's just Ortmeier's daddy.

by rotorueter on Nov 7, 2007 1:16 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
All-Fat Team

3b m cabrera
ss j uribe
2b r belliard
1b p fielder
lf c lee
cf a jones
rf j rivera
c  molina...obviously

"Let's not forget ... the great team he was handed." -Hank Steinbrenner

by Woody Wins on Nov 7, 2007 2:56 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Andruwoo is fat?

Don't hate on my boy Prince! I named my Munchlax Bengie. He evolved into Snorlax today. He's big, slow, and hits good. A perfect name.

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 7, 2007 3:02 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Hey a Pokemon reference...
Now I can talk about playing it without looking like a loser by being the first to bring up Pokemon, only the second who babbles on a lot more than the first! ;-)

I've been playing Yellow over, so far I've got 3 badges.  If I'm bored I'll play it.  Soon I should go back and get my Magicarp from the daycare.

Lance Niekro AAA Watch: 108 AB .287/.352/.463 6 2B 2 3B 3 HR 11 BB -- 0.2 IP 27.00 ERA 3 H 0 BB 0 K (through 8/19)

by WalrusMan on Nov 7, 2007 9:00 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Hey a Pokemon reference...
I stopped playing Diamond months ago because I was bored from breeding and leveling up dozens Shinx's with Ice Fang. I just started doing it again, and I still have a bunch of leveling up before I get the Luxray of my dreams, but I got the "this is so tedious" out of my system and I'm recharged for the rest of the journey.

Then, Mount Coronet here I come!

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Nov 7, 2007 10:02 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Hey a Pokemon reference...
I started doing the contests. It really is lame and silly, but it's fun in its own silly way. I'm glad the game offers other things to do than raise your guys and beat the snot out of your opponents, because even that gets boring after a while.
Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 8, 2007 8:21 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Hey a Pokemon reference...
Oh please, my friend, I am the queen of the nerds. I wear my crown proudly. Pokemon is the pinnacle of nerd-dom. :)
Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 8, 2007 8:20 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
This again. Well, it has been a few days.

by Evan on Nov 7, 2007 12:16 PM PST   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
We need a break from the A-rod posts.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Nov 7, 2007 12:29 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Tomorrow there will be 3 posts about Velez.
Steve Kline: How okay is he, really? I would say he is pretty okay.

by groug on Nov 7, 2007 1:31 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Maybe someone will post an earthquake related diary hijack. Nah, that'd be lame.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Nov 7, 2007 1:36 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

*Runs off to cry*
Lance Niekro AAA Watch: 108 AB .287/.352/.463 6 2B 2 3B 3 HR 11 BB -- 0.2 IP 27.00 ERA 3 H 0 BB 0 K (through 8/19)

by WalrusMan on Nov 7, 2007 9:01 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
A three part series: Feast or Famine. We can even to it all Ken Burns-like.
Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 7, 2007 2:50 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
This full exchange was AWESOME. I'm not even going to read the rest of this thread because it can't possibly get any better, or more interesting.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Nov 7, 2007 6:49 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
That's what she said! I need to stop doing that.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Nov 7, 2007 6:59 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
if you stop here, you're going to miss pure brilliance from some poster named Rxmeister. That guy is a genius, whoever he is!!

by notrxmeister on Nov 7, 2007 7:09 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
I would only support the trade if we pitched in to give him a gift card for Fresh Choice. That guy could save a lot of farmers from bankruptcy.

Too fat, bad work ethic, bad attitude. In other words, like me, but with the ability to hit.

The Johnnie LeMaster fan club vice-president. E6 Forever!

by Van Smack on Nov 7, 2007 12:39 PM PST   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
So let me get this straight: Giants fans, of all people, are complaining about a guy with a weight and attitude problem? Seems a bit ironic.

by cheno on Nov 7, 2007 12:41 PM PST   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
If we can get him AND lock him up till he is 30 AND not give up Tim or Matt I am all for it.

There is no realistic deal that would convince me to trade Tim or Matt.  Unrealistic?  Sure...Wright and Reyes for one of them is unrealistic.  In other words, two star caliber players.  One for one straight up I would not do it because I believe that an ace starter is more valuable than a star hitter.

Two ace starters can double handedly win a World Series...if they get there.

by positiveuphemism on Nov 7, 2007 12:43 PM PST   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
I agree that being able to sign Miguel Cabrera to a long-term extension would be imperative to making a deal -- ESPECIALLY one involving Lincecum or Cain.

by sharksrog on Nov 7, 2007 2:20 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
yeah but an ace starter is rarely worth more than 6-7 wins in a season (by himself).  A hitter as good as Cabrera can be worth twice that.  The "getting there" part is the problem, and an MVP-caliber hitter who plays every day will inherently contribute more toward that goal than a Cy-caliber pitcher who only goes every five days.
you will suffer humiliation when the sports team from my area defeats the sports team from your area

by nick on Nov 7, 2007 5:00 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Personally I have always questioned this "conventional wisdom".  I think the value of a hitter and the value of a pitcher are equal in each individual confrontation (Plate Appearance) between them.  A starting pitcher who throws 200 innings or more with a whip of 1.1 will have 800+ of these confrontations while an elite postion player is likely to have only 650+ or more such confrontations.  To me this makes the starting pitcher more valuable then the elite position player.

by giantsrainman on Nov 7, 2007 5:23 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
You sound like you've read The Baseball Economists.  

If so, then bravo on the choice.  If not, I HIGHLY suggest picking it up.

Who dat is? That's just Ortmeier's daddy.

by rotorueter on Nov 7, 2007 6:43 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
OK, I will have my kids put it on my Christmas list.  Thanks for the suggestion.

by giantsrainman on Nov 7, 2007 10:06 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
That is a marvelous concept I myself have thought about.  A starting pitcher who pitches a lot of innings DOES have more batter/pitcher encounters than a player playing all 162 games.

by sharksrog on Nov 7, 2007 10:17 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
HOWEVAH, isn't there also a school of thought that says the batter has more control over a single batter/pitcher encounter than the pitcher does?  If that's indeed true, then it seems that over a full season, the gap between the batter and pitcher's respective contributions would be either narrowed significantly or eliminated altogether.
Rajai Davis: fast.

by Mike Benjamin Hit King on Nov 8, 2007 12:11 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
If such a school of thought exists, I would disagree based on just locical thought without any statistical analysis.

When a "typical" (league average) batter faces a "typical" pitcher, there is a series of possible outcome probabilities based on league averages.  Those expected outcomes would change based on the stats of the given batter and hitter in that particular confrontation. I would think what actually happens is equally shared on the execution of said players.

If anything, I think the pitcher (especially a good one) has more control of the outcome, especially if you believe that most good hits are off "mistakes" and the addage that "good pitching beats good hitting".

Vote for Grant

by Goofus on Nov 8, 2007 10:33 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
But the batter is all by himself, while even the best pitcher depends heavily on the seven guys behind him.

by Evan on Nov 8, 2007 2:18 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Relative to a single plate appearance the variance in skill level between the best 7 and the worst 7 in major league baseball is neglegable.  This confrontration is between the pitcher and the batter.

by giantsrainman on Nov 8, 2007 2:25 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
I don't think it's negligible at all, actually, but it doesn't matter. We're talking about 600 or 800 plate appearances. That difference is huge.

by Evan on Nov 8, 2007 2:58 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
We are talking about 7 positions for 1/7th of a season each (200+ innings) or the equivalent of a full season for one position.  Perhaps I was exagerating in comparing the worst case senerio of the 7 best vs the seven worst.  But, I don't see how this would not be negligable when comparing the worst team defense against the best team defence for the 200+ innings when one remembers that the negligable is in comparison to the impact of the battle between the pitcher and the hitter.

by giantsrainman on Nov 8, 2007 3:24 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Okay, let's think this through.

The best third baseman in the game last year was Pedro Feliz; he saved, by one good fielding metric (here, courtesy of this guy), 28 runs in comparison to the average third baseman, in 1220 innings of play. The worst was Ryan Braun; he gave up 32 extra runs in just 945 innings.

Let's assume those numbers are a little bit fluky or overstated, and that the "true" spread, over 1200 innings, is more like plus or minus 24 runs, for a 48-point spread between best and worst.

Divide that by six to get to 200 innings, and you have an eight-run spread. That's at just one position, and not the most important one.

How important is that to a pitcher? Let's use Matt Cain as an example -- I just learned while researching this that he was the only pitcher in baseball to throw exactly 200 innings last year. Cain gave up 84 runs. With Braun instead of Feliz at third, we can safely assume he would have given up at least 92. His ERA would have gone from 3.65 to 4.01 -- or higher.

I think I'm going to put that in a box for emphasis:

With Braun instead of Feliz at third, Matt Cain's ERA would have gone from 3.65 to 4.01 -- or higher.

And that's just one position. In the real world, things even out somewhat, because no team has great fielders at every position, or terrible fielders at every position. But clearly, even good strikeout pitchers are hugely dependent on their defense.

by Evan on Nov 8, 2007 4:10 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Evan,
I'm not a math/stat guy, so help me out if my thinking is off. But I think you might be overstating the effect of Feliz vs. Braun on an individual matchup.  To have such an effect, the ball would not only have to be put in play, but the play would have to involve 3B and be a play that Feliz makes and Braun doesn't.

If Braun adds .36 to Cain's season ERA, does that really have all that dramatic an effect on the individual matchup (one PA) that we're discussing?

If I take the exta .36 in ERA and divide by 9, that means Braun adds .04 ERA per inning, right?

If we take the extra .04 ERA per inning and divide that by the average number of PAs in an inning (I'm guessing it's something like 4.5 if it's 3 outs plus a WHIP of 1.5), then we get an extra .0089 in ERA per matchup. (Fractions of fractions!)

When we couple that with the "evening out" you mentioned that happens when you look at an entire team, is it really that significant? I would think something like human error in an umpire's stike zone has more influence on the outcome.

My point, and I do have one, is that it still seems to me that the vast, vast majority of the outcome is determined by the pitcher and batter and it's pretty even.

See Barack Obama at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium Nov. 14th! Visit https://donate.barackobama.com/sanfran for details.

by Goofus on Nov 9, 2007 10:24 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Cabrera to San Francisco?
Well, if we're trying to figure out the effect on the individual batter, we should just use the number of extra plays Feliz made, rather than using the conversion into runs. (If you look at the Jinaz spreadsheet I linked to above, the final green column shows the number of plays made above or below average; the yellow column converts it into runs, using a formula I'm not even going to try to decipher.)

Counting plays instead of runs, the difference goes from +36 to -40. Again, let's round that down a bit to make sure we're not overstating the case; say it's plus or minus 32 plays. That's over 1200 innings.

Your figure of 4.5 batters per inning is probably a little high, taking into account double plays, and the fact that we're mostly interested in good pitchers here; let's make it 4.3. So, that makes 5160 plate appearances across those 1200 innings, with a 64-play difference between good third baseman and a bad one.

64/5160 = 0.0124. Thus, the average batter has a 1.24% greater chance of getting a hit with the bad 3B on the field. This goes up or down depending on whether he's a righty or a lefty, or a speedster who likes to bunt, etc.

  *  *  *

As for the general question, here's how I look at it. Each at-bat is a struggle between two sides. On one side, you have a guy with a bat trying to get a hit. On the other side, you have nine guys trying to prevent him from getting a hit. Of those nine guys, the one on the mound is by far the most important; but unlike the batter, he's not solely responsible for his side of the battle. You have to give the other eight credit for some share of the outcome. The e