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Around SBN: Are The Orioles Bad Or Unlucky With Their Young Pitching?

Late Night

It almost seems like most of the rumors that pop up are a function of the rumormonger's own educated guesses. The Giants need power and they love them some old-timey players; therefore, Mike Lowell was on the team's short list for a while. Until Sabean exhibits a different method of roster construction, you can't blame a writer for resorting to that kind of guesstimation.

So let me count the ways I love this article in the Mercury News:

  • In past mailbags for sfgiants.com, Chris Haft has thrown out a bunch of third baseman possibilities in no particular order. Take this one, for example. Haft drops Eric Hinske, Morgan Ensberg, Troy Glaus, Akinori Iwamura, Ian Stewart, Ty Wigginton, and Travis Metcalf in a single response. It's interesting reading, but it's hard to discern the author speculation from the front office whispers. In the Mercury News article, though, only one name is mentioned:
    Unless Feliz's agents lower their demands, the Giants will look to the trade arena for a third baseman, with the Indians' Andy Marte a strong possibility. Because Marte is out of minor league options, Cleveland might not trade him until spring training.
    Marte might be more Ben Grieve than Phil Nevin, but it's the philosophy behind the suggestion that makes me giddy. The Giants' goal should be simple: controllable players with potential to be cheap stars. Marte's trade value has never been lower, but he's still a player who put up a .275/.372/.506 line as a 21-year-old in AAA. That kind of potential beats whatever Feliz, Mike Lamb, or Mike Lowell could offer to the franchise as it is currently constructed.
  • Here's another beautiful passage:
    (Sabean) reiterated that he wouldn't shy away from acquiring players for major roles who haven't proven themselves at the major league level - a remarkable shift after years of denying opportunities to the Giants' own prospects so the team could surround Barry Bonds with veteran free agents.
    When I put on my mock-GM Underoos and pretend like I know what I'm doing, I'll bring up names like Marte or Lastings Milledge or Brandon Wood without ever stopping to consider if Sabean would even care about such unproven players. It seems intuitive to think that if there isn't power worth paying for on the free-agent market, you might might have to buy power on spec. But this is the first indication that Sabean might agree.
  • About Cain and Lincecum:
    "We have to listen; that's our job after finishing in last place," Sabean said. "But I'd be in shock if there's something as good as what their future brings.
    That seems to be the consensus opinion: Never say never...but pretty much never. It's nice to read Sabean lay it out in such explicit terms.
  • Something I didn't expect:
    (Sabean) has talked with Manager Bruce Bochy about moving Randy Winn back to centerfield (from right).
    Awesome. Winn is a valuable player in center. He's an adequate player in right. If the Giants hope to get some power, they can't commit to having Winn in a corner. They have to be flexible. That they're even considering a move is a great sign.
  • Again, here's something that seems intuitive, but you never know....
    The Giants still have a few veterans on unattractive contracts that appear to have little place in a youth movement, but Sabean has found minimal interest in Roberts, Ray Durham or Rich Aurilia.
    It makes sense that Sabean would prop up Roberts, Durham, and Aurilia next to the Danielle Steel novels and aerobics VHS tapes at the great Giants' garage sale of aught-seven, but this is the first time it's been explicitly brought up. I still think Roberts would be of use to some teams -- and worth a prospect or two -- if the Giants ate a chunk of salary.
  • Crazy talk:
    One rival GM said he believes Sabean would forgo free agents, perhaps redirecting portions of the major league payroll to the club's scouting and player development budget.
    Wha? Can you imagine an '08 draft in which the Giants pick up the crazy demands of first-round bonus babies (Rick Porcello, Stephen Drew, Jered Weaver, etc...), and buy out the college commitments of several hard to sign players in rounds two through 30? It makes so much more sense than throwing $18M at David Riske.
Maybe I'm just looking for optimism anywhere I can find it. Maybe I was just in the mood for a crazy-long post. But I was really, really encouraged by just about everything in this article.

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Re: Late Night
Well, I can put my fears of Lincecum being traded for Cabrera to rest, I guess. Thank goodness.

One rival GM said he believes Sabean would forgo free agents, perhaps redirecting portions of the major league payroll to the club's scouting and player development budget.

That rival was Ned Colletti and he's just being nice.

Aurilia sounds like a planet out of StarFox.

by Gabafnerhagen on Nov 30, 2007 12:52 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
This sounds good... but really, how much money CAN you throw at minors/scouting?  The issue is that there is a (roughly) finite supply of talent.  

I mean what's the budget line item here?  $5M/year?  $20M/year?  Would doubling it help?  I can't imagine you could do more than hire a couple young stud execs for a couple mill.  While it's "real" money, it's chump change in the payroll budget.  Who would we be forgoeing?

Unless they are going to scout women? (That's not a joke).

by zenbitz on Nov 30, 2007 9:38 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
The Giants could have spent $7 million to draft and sign Rick Porcello in the 2007 draft.  Rick was considered to be the second-top pitching prospect and the best high school hurler.

by sharksrog on Dec 1, 2007 11:15 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Exactly. Then youve got guys like Matt Harvey, also considered 1 of the best high school pitchers, going in the Third round 118th overall, due to signability issues (he didnt get signed as it turned out, but its thought he could of been if the Angels hadnt of mucked him about as much/offered a bit more money a bit sooner). Use some of that money to draft and sign a guy like that (instead of a guy like Jackson Williams maybe). Who knows if there are any other Villalonas out there to be snapped up? Use some of that money to scout and sign those guys. If the money isnt there, they cant do any of those things.

by Mr Scruff on Dec 1, 2007 7:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Marte, please!
"But I was really, really encouraged by just about everything in this article."

You and me both, Grant. You and me both.

On that note, have a great weekend. GM meetings start next week!

Noonan. Nooooonan!

by Giant Fan in Singapore on Nov 30, 2007 1:19 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
I've stopped believing anything Brian Sabean say's to the press, or anyone else that would listen to him chop up a storm. False hope is his forte. This time it's show me and shut up. All I've seen thus far is contract offers to 2 players(Omar, Troy) at the tail end of the their careers. Nothing has changed.

The door is open to show me otherwise.

by Armz Dealer on Nov 30, 2007 1:26 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
so what are we gonna give up for marte?  lowry would be overpaying, but i dont think roberts or durham is gonna get that deal done.  marte is at an all time low in trade value but i still dont see the giants being able to get it done.  not to be a downer though, i loooove the idea.  why not take a shot at 9 guys like marte? (might already have 2 in lewis, and raj) 2 or 3 or 4 of em gotta pan out.

by sam23 on Nov 30, 2007 1:32 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Call me cautiously optimistic. Of course, I was cautiously optimistic last offseason, too, until the Zito deal was announced.

Still, it's good to hear that he's at least paying lip-service to the lunatic fringe.

by Steve on Nov 30, 2007 1:48 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
I wasn't even cautiously optimistic last off-season, since it seemed apparent that barring a bunch of career years, the Giants didn't have enough hitting.

by sharksrog on Dec 1, 2007 11:17 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
I've heard all this before. I'll believe it when I see it. He still resigned Omar Vizquel, which doesn't go in line with some of the article. Plus there's that whole part about "Unless Feliz lowers his demands"

Unless lowering demands means a 2M contract to be a backup, I don't wanna hear it

Frandsen for 3B (til July 08)

by NeifiChicken on Nov 30, 2007 3:51 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Everything Sabean has said this postseason has been fine with me, but the pursuit of Troy Percival definitely worries me, especially when I see what he actually signed for. If the Giants were actually close to that, it looks like more of the same from Sabean. However, if he just thought he could get him cheap for one year, I have no problem with that. The Omar signing was horrible, but I can forgive it if he now dumps Durham and Roberts. He has my permission to keep Richie around as a veteran leader and for sentimental reasons only. I actually want them to sign Andruw Jones because the lineup is so devoid of power, but if their reasons for not signing him is a committment to the young players, I will be very happy to see him go elsewhere.
SIGN ANDRUW JONES!!

by rxmeister on Nov 30, 2007 5:29 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
By the way, great example by Sabean. "you're hitting fifth. If you don't like it you can sit on the bench." What player complains about hitting fifth??
SIGN ANDRUW JONES!!

by rxmeister on Nov 30, 2007 5:45 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
I hope this isn't irrational exuberance on my part: But, Woo-hoo!
"But I AM a stepchild!"-Pedro Feliz

by Smotheredinhugs on Nov 30, 2007 5:56 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Well, he sounds like he's changed. I want to believe he's a different person now. But I also realize that I sound like a battered spouse when I say that, so I'm not holding my breath or anyting.

Is there a shelter for abused fans?

The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Nov 30, 2007 6:08 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
That's exactly how I feel. I was in the middle of writing my own abused girlfriend analogy (my own analogy - not my own abused girlfriend) when I saw yours. I mean, I want to believe that he is a changed man, but that's what he said last time and we all how  that ended up. And "Is there a shelter for abused fans?" - yes there is. they call it the mccoveychronicles
You deserve to be struck out when your first name's a verb

by Cookyman on Nov 30, 2007 6:33 AM PST up reply actions  

Perks
At our McCovey Shelter, we have a trained staff of bereavement counselors and offer free hypodermic needles.

by Moggeee on Dec 2, 2007 1:59 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
The reality is, right now high stakes poker is going on. I wouldnt believe anything you hear from Sabean right now. Reading between the lines, Florida has asked for the moon. The Angels and now the Giants are talking to get their price down. So far all the chatter is on Lincecum and Cain. He has to quiet those rumors so that every deal we try to REALLY make doesnt have the other GM asking for Cain or Lincecum. He talks of letting who we have play so that we dont look deperate. People will come back to earth and real trading can be done. I like the noise Sabean is talking. I like the things he is saying, but remember, poker is being played. He may also be saying he doesnt need a CF cause he has Winn to bring Andruw Jones and Scott Boras down to earth. We are a big barganning chip for Boras. In need of power, needing defense, and lots of money to spend. On top of already giving Boras big time profits from Zito.

The reality is, e were going young last year and then signed Roberts, Durham and Aurilla. So dont believe anything until things start happening. Sorry.

by S49erfan on Nov 30, 2007 6:49 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
The Twins made the deal the Giants should have.  Delmon Young is exactly what the Giants need and now the Twins have him for half a decade for cheap.  Would they have accepted Lowry + Sanchez/Hennessy/Correia/Lewis?  Maybe just Lowry with some $?

by Boytrickery1 on Nov 30, 2007 7:00 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
One of the articles I read said that the Giants DID ask about Young and the price was Lincecum. That's the problem when you have two pitchers so far and away above the rest of what you have. Other teams are going to ask for those two only and hang up when you say no, especially at this stage of the offseason.
SIGN ANDRUW JONES!!

by rxmeister on Nov 30, 2007 7:50 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
I think you're underestimating how big a part of that deal Jason Bartlett was.

I don't think there's any way they would have accepted a Lowry-centered deal over what they got (especially now that they got Morlan in the deal as well.)

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Nov 30, 2007 9:17 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Bartlett?  He's not useless, but he can't actually hit, can he?  He had a nice, age-25 triple-A campaign, I agree -- in 2005.  Nothing since, imo.  Sure, the Giants don't have a Bartlett equivalent, but they have Rajai Davis.  Laugh all you will, but Davis plays good defense at an up-the-middle position, and can't hit much -- just like Bartlett.

Morlan is another Pichardo: interesting arm, great numbers in high A, and a long way away.

Garza throws hard, but his numbers thus far aren't any better than Lowry's, he's not that much younger, and Lowry's cost-controlled for a while, so Lowry + cash/fungible reliever would seem a fair equivalent.  

The Young deal is the kind the Giants needed to be in on.  If the rest of the league says Cain/Lincecum, remind them where the now-big chips in the Pierzynski trade came from.

by wcw on Nov 30, 2007 3:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Well, the problem with that reasoning is that the Devil Rays have absolutely no shortage of outfielders (why do you think they were trading Delmon Young?) and were looking to upgrade defense at shortstop (and while Bartlett can't hit, he's a very good defensive shortstop).
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Nov 30, 2007 7:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Matt Garza would certainly appear to be worth more than Lowry plus cash -- unless the case involved were $100 million.

by sharksrog on Dec 1, 2007 11:20 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
As the deal got done with the Twinkies instead of with Los Gigantes, your point is almost denotationally correct.  That said, is Garza actually a better bet going forward, assuming a cash outlay to quilibrate his and Lowry's future costs?

http://firstinning.com/players/Noah-Lowry-a/
vs
http://firstinning.com/players/Matt-Garza-a/

                     Lowry          Garza
Age        BB/PA    K/PA    BB/PA    K/PA
23    AAA    7.30%    18.90%    7.70%    23.70%
23    MLB    7.20%    18.60%    8.70%    18.30%

Yes, Lowry's 26 now and had really weak peripherals last year.  Garza, on the other hand, has 133 total MLB IP at a 4.5 ERA, vs Lowry's 618 at a 4 ERA.

I'd say these are two equivalents in present value, but with very different likely paths.  Lowry's probably at his peak, but he may well continue for a half-decade or so, though perhaps he flames out or gets injured.  Garza could break out and be a star, but probabilities are against him.  More likely, he flames out or gets injured himself.  Trading him is something I love for the Twins: his upside is limited to #3 starter, his downside is out if baseball.  Young's upside is superstar; his downside is major-league regular.

Given the Rays obvious overvaluation of a pitching prospect, you'd think the Giants could put together something as good or better than Garza.  Not Lowry?  Sanchez plus Hennessey, say.  That's a potential star and an adequate reliever.

by wcw on Dec 1, 2007 4:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Garza's upside is not a #3
While I don't like this whole "so and so pitcher is a #whatever" system, Garza's floor is probably a #3-4ish pitcher. He's destroyed the minor leagues for a while now and is only 23. You are really underrating Garza here, his value is much closer to Lincecum right now than it is to Lowry (not saying its that close to either of them really, but def toward's the Lincecum side of the scale)

Sure the Giants could've put something as good together or better than Garza. Its called Lincecum or Cain.

by awesomer @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 2, 2007 4:50 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
One rival GM said he believes Sabean would forgo free agents, perhaps redirecting portions of the major league payroll to the club's scouting and player development budget. To happily belabor an old point, this is money that we have been giving to Bonds for the last couple years.....yes, it can be spent in other ways.

by Stoned Slacker on Nov 30, 2007 7:38 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Sure it's not the money we were spending on Morris and Benitez?
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Nov 30, 2007 9:06 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
And Roberts and Aurilia and Zito and Finley/Edgardo and Tucker and Pierzynski and Russ Davis and Tomko and...
Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 30, 2007 11:52 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
I dreamt last night the Giants signed Riske for four years and $16 M. No kidding. My wife says I think about baseball too much. Naaahh.
"There's not enough bases out there to intentionally walk everybody you want to." - Grady Little

by leftymalo on Nov 30, 2007 8:04 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
When you're dreaming about David Riske, she might have a point ;)

by xanthan on Nov 30, 2007 8:32 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
My wife wonders why I greet her with "Happy Tim Lincecum Day!" roughly once a week during the summer.

by Dan from NM on Nov 30, 2007 9:51 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
I am not the only one?!?!  Though this year it wass often  "Go Durham yourself" for ideas I was particularly against on the " Honey Do " list.

by daveinexile on Nov 30, 2007 12:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Upon reading that SJMN article, I exhaled my fears over our franchise being traded away.  I'm ok with falling back and having to punt in the 2008 season.  Barring some supernatural intervention we'll not be in the playoffs, and more likely than not be last in the NL West again.  But look ahead... Adam Dunn is a free agent in `09, get our kids some playing time and see if we can iron out some of their quirks, then come next year, rock the Big Donkey and see what happens.

$.02

If I owned this place and Hell, I'd rent this out and live in Hell...

by ilselu1 on Nov 30, 2007 9:25 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Do you remember Lincecum starts around here on this board?? It was almost like a national holiday every fifth day. I would absolutely hate to see that go, even if you were to convince me that we're better off with Cabrera. And it would also be a no win for Sabean. Even if Cabrera came over here and was great for the next decade, a large segment of fans would say they could have gotten him without sacrificing one of the dynamic duo. Whether that statement is true or not is irrelevant when it comes to angry Giants fans!!
SIGN ANDRUW JONES!!

by rxmeister on Nov 30, 2007 9:53 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
(Sabean) reiterated that he wouldn't shy away from acquiring players for major roles who haven't proven themselves at the major league level - a remarkable shift after years of denying opportunities to the Giants' own prospects so the team could surround Barry Bonds with veteran free agents.

Snort.  What prospects?  What players?  Sabean has not shown EVER that he can evaluate hitting talent.  Ever.  

by zenbitz on Nov 30, 2007 9:44 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Except Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and the prospects he evaluated and green-lighted getting back in his Yankee days.

Giants days, though...  No argument here!

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 30, 2007 10:08 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night

Well, it's hard to say what level of responsibility he had for "recognizing" their talent.

Jeter I guess was a good draft pick (picked after such notables as Jeffrey Hammonds and Phil Nevin).

Giants picked 7th in 1992... CALVIN MURRAY.  Oh, what might have been.

Posada I might have to give you ... 24th round draft pick!  Although that kinda has to be luck, otherwise he would have taken him earlier.

by zenbitz on Nov 30, 2007 12:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
I'd like to throw more names out there for you, but unfortunately, those are the only two hitters I can find credited to Sabean with my cursory search.  That's pretty weak.

Seriously, I'd love to be able to argue the point with you, but there's no evidence to really have the foundation for a contrary position.  Those two are it, and the remarkable drafts we've had for years speak volumes.  But then again, we haven't had one of our own hitting prospects rise to the top - for the Giants, as opposed to say, for the Red Sox - since approximately the 80s.  Which I don't quite get.  How does one organization have such a horrid track record?  That spans multiple GMs AND even ownerships!  So how does something like that happen?

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 30, 2007 2:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Pure. blind. dumb. luck.

As demonstrated by the total inability to repeat it.

What no love for Glenallen Hill?

by zenbitz on Nov 30, 2007 12:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
I disagree that because Sabean didn't come up with another Kent, it was all luck.  Once the Giants started winning again in the 97 season, the Giants front office was all about the least amount of uncertainty.  This is why they preferred Michael Tucker to a draft pick.  They knew what they were getting in Michael Tucker (yes, yes, I realize it's Michael Tucker, but Tucker at least gave something whereas a draft pick probably would have given nothing).  

I'm not supporting this philosophy, just pointing out why there were no more moves like the Kent trade.  It was all about cost certainty with them.  The uncertainty of prospects was not conducive to their "win now" attitude.  

There's a lot wrong with the philosophy and I'm not defending it.  But it explains the Giants current situation and more importantly it shows that Sabean might not be completely inept.

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 30, 2007 1:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
In fact, if you take this information and you take some of the quotes from the above article, I would say there is a good chance we get several more Kent-like moves coming up.

Of course, getting Lastings Milledge would have been a good start...

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 30, 2007 1:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night

OK - I agree that lack of more Kents is not strong evidence, but Kent was still luck.

There is no earthly way anyone could predict that "underrated" Jeff Kent at age 28 was going to turn into the "borderline HOFer" Jeff Kent age 30-34.

And note that his first year with SF he hit a non-awe-inspiring .250/.316/.472 (OPS+ 105).

by zenbitz on Nov 30, 2007 3:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
I think the idea of trading Matt Williams when he did was a good one by Brian Sabean.  But I do think he got a bit lucky with Jeff Kent.  I don't think Brian expected Jeff to be as good as he became.

by sharksrog on Dec 1, 2007 11:24 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Brian Sabean certainly isn't completely inept.  But he seems to have been passed by many of the GM's who are more reliant on statistical analysis.

Brian belatedly said that the Giants needed more OBP.  But then he went out and signed Jose Vizcaino.

by sharksrog on Dec 1, 2007 11:26 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
RE: Zenbitz and Sharksrog.

Fair enough.

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Dec 1, 2007 11:51 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
are the indians really gonna take a sanchez correia or hennessey for marte deal? i dont see it.  which means i see pedro or some other vet at 3rd next year. omar wasnt that bad of a signing...you are ok with aurilia as a vet presence but not omar?

by sam23 on Nov 30, 2007 11:04 AM PST reply actions  

D. Young
"Sabean acknowledged that the Giants would prefer to make the type of trade that Minnesota engineered in obtaining outfielder Delmon Young for Tampa Bay -- trading pitching (Matt Garza, in the Twins' case) for a young, developing hitter. Noting that the Giants approached the Rays about Young, Sabean said, "At the end of the day, we didn't have a match because of their asking price. But we are exploring those types of deals ... It'd be nice to find a younger third baseman out there if we could trade pitching. Right now, that opportunity hasn't presented itself.""
Official Website
So reportedly the Devils asked for Lincy, but Garza seems closer to Lowry than Lincecum to me. And you're right, I could be underestimating the SS in deal, Bartlett and Harris.

by Boytrickery1 on Nov 30, 2007 11:26 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
To me, either Sanchez or Henn have more value than Marte.  I have a hard time seeing where the excitment comes from regarding Marte.  I understaand he's 24.  But his career MLB BA is 201.  For '07, with Cleveland his line was 193/233/316.  Just a bad year?  In '06 it was 226/287/421.  OK, I understand those numbers come from relatively few ABs.  So, AAA in 07?  267/309/457.  How about '06?  261/322/451.
  How do you spell Feliz?

by allfrank on Nov 30, 2007 11:33 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
If you look at the "cut" lists right now, there's some pretty intriguing free talent available as minor league free agents. We should be snapping some of this stuff up.

For example:  Winston Abreu was released from the Nationals despite 26 K's against 9 walks in 30 MLB innings last season. He ran into some tater trouble, but that's to be expected of a rookie. He has a sparkling minor-league resume. For a league-minimum contract, those numbers look to me like a potential setup man in the Giants' bullpen.

That guy could be had right now with a phone call.

Of course, the A's already beat us to Chris Lubanski, Wes Bankston, Chris Gissell, and some other freely-available prospects off the release heap. That's the difference between Oakland and SF in a nutshell, I guess.

by drelmoraisin on Nov 30, 2007 11:34 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Yeah, I was buoyed by that article as well.  And I'm glad Grant wrote about it, the on-line article has a sh*t-full load of important information that isn't in my newspaper version.  As if I need another reason to cancel my subscription.

I was particularly jazzed by the Winn to CF talk, not because Winn is more valuable there than RF (which he is), but because that probably means two things:  1) that Schierholtz will be given the opportunity (along with Freddy Lewis too but I'm rooting for Nate) to win the RF spot and 2) that Rajai Davis is not starting in CF as some sportswriters had speculated (yeah, hard to tell when it's really info or just the writer's ill-wrought guesses).  And I wrote this based on the newspaper version which only notes the Winn to CF, not the on-line one that mentions Nate and Fred.

And of course I'm jazzed like everyone (OK, I guess not QUITE everyone) else that Lincecum and Cain are pretty much untouchable unless the other team ponies up a lot.  Plus, it's good to know that Sabean took a lot of factors into consideration about why Cabrera might not be such a good acquisition, particularly that he probably wouldn't sign an extension and would go free agent.

Yeah, you always have to take some of what Sabean says with a grain of salt, but a lot of fans here have blinders on with regards to Sabean, and would take every opportunity to take potshots at him.  There is strategy (getting younger) and there is tactics (you get the old vet because there's no young prospect ready to play the position and you should be trying to win when you are paying Barry $20M to play), for example.  Would fans rather see the younger Royce Clayton manning SS for us, or older Omar Vizquel?

And good point by poster above about this being a game played out in public in terms of negotiations.  For all we know, the Giants rumors are being floated out there by the selling team wanting Lincecum.  The Giants prefer negotiations in stealth mode, so any leaks usually is from the other side of the table to try to drum up business from other teams.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 30, 2007 11:50 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Slightly OT, but as a fellow MN subscriber I'm starting to feel like they WANT us all to cancel. Every redesign makes it uglier, there's less content and more "see mercurynews.com for details", and now they've taken to playing hide-the-comics.

On the other hand, abandoning the newspaper feels a little like shooting a dodo. Okay, I might not be the one who shoots the actual last dodo, but I'm still contributing to their impending extinction.

That ended up more than only slightly OT. Sorry.

This is my signature, not Goofus's.

by EliminateMe on Nov 30, 2007 12:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
The Contrition Committee is weighing the sincerity of your apology.

by Moggeee on Dec 2, 2007 2:05 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
I am admittedly getting anxious to see a player or two acquired.
Brian Anderson: I can has spot in Fresno 'pen?

by JT Jordan on Nov 30, 2007 12:09 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
I was fine with inactivity until the Milledge trade.  Then I was all like "why couldn't you get any of that action Brian?"  And he was like "Aw Hell nah, not you too?"  And I was all like, "Well, it's a potential 5 tool guy for practically nothing.  that's the type of stuff we need here."  And he was like "I lost Minaya's number.  So I ordered a pizza instead."  And I was like, "Dude."  
Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 30, 2007 12:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Dude, where's my Milledge?
Where's your Milledge, dude?
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Nov 30, 2007 12:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
If I knew all it took to get Milledge was a marginal OF and a backup-caliber catcher, I would have sent Randy Winn and Eliezer Alfonzo away in a hurry.

by lmaozedong on Nov 30, 2007 3:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
It sure seems like another big trade for which Sabean had the chips.  I'm not quite as high on Milledge as Mets fans, but he does have real potential.

Maybe all the other GMs really can't see past the big two pitchers.  Seems odd, though.

by wcw on Nov 30, 2007 3:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
The Mets have already said through the whispers that they weren't interested in Molina. I think the bigger problem is there's just not much to see beyond the two pitchers.  I frankly don't know how we're going to acquire the talent necessary to be competitive in the next three four years. Seems like lie in the bed you made time to me.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Dec 1, 2007 7:38 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night

The sad part is that Ryan Church is a better hitting than Winn or any other current Giant.

So, we probably COULDN'T have matched DC's offer!

by zenbitz on Nov 30, 2007 3:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Hmm, I don't know.  Church is only marginally better than Winn, I think.  But I guess it doesn't really matter what I think.  It matters what Minaya thinks.
Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 30, 2007 5:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
2008 Zips projections for
Church: .271.348.473
Winn:   .282/.338/.429

Oh, and is 5 years younger, and plays for ML minimum.

by zenbitz on Nov 30, 2007 7:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
But factor in: Church is a platoon player (he's a terrible hitter against LHP (.723 OPS) and he's had problems staying healthy for a full season.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Dec 1, 2007 7:36 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
My limb seems to be holding stable for now.
Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 30, 2007 12:35 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Dear diary,

Well done.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Nov 30, 2007 12:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Thanks.  But, just like the Warriors resurgence, this is no guarentee of good things in the future.  Still, it is very encouraging.
Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 30, 2007 1:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Your sig is assuming no post-season games in the life of the contract, right? That's pessimism on a scale best reserved for game situations -- you know, Feliz coming up with men on and less than two outs and the like.

by NearestNorwich on Nov 30, 2007 8:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
No, I'm not assuming no post-season.  But since I do not know how many post-season games there will be over the next seven years, I couldn't exactly include them.
Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Dec 1, 2007 9:02 AM PST up reply actions  

Whining About Cabrera
What makes Sabean think that his unproven pitching prospects aren't worth a 24-year-old, four-time allstar, world series champion that routinely puts up a 30-plus-homer, 110-rbi, 320-BA seasons year after year?

Sabean should do everything possible to acquire Cabrera so that the Giants could have some sort of centerpiece to build anything from. The Giants have absolutely nothing other than their two pitching prospects. The Giants' hopeless farm system is void of talent. Is Sabean the guy responsible for the Giants' miserable farm system?

The Giants are a last place team that will be staring up the butts of the rival Dodgers for a long time to Lincecum.

Beinfest is simply doing his job as one of the best MLB GMs, trying to get the best deal in his situation. Sabean's public whining serves no purpose other than to keep in practice for all the public whining that he'll be doing whilst the Giants get continually beat. That is, until he gets properly fired.

by Longfellow on Dec 1, 2007 7:14 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Whining About Cabrera
Reading between the lines, Sabean is saying that SF is still interested in acquiring Miguel Cabrera. Gut feel is that SF is willing to trade Lincecum and pieces for Cabrera, however, the pieces Florida wants is what Sabean is balking at. Let the winter meetings begin.

by wilriv21 on Dec 1, 2007 9:49 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Whining About Cabrera
Did you see the packages that the Marlins have REJECTED for Cabrera? They've rejected packages that the Giants are not even capable of matching if we throw all our chips in the pot! It's not just about trading one of Cain or Lincecum. It's about the Marlins being insane in a way we can't live up to if we were stupid enough to try.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 1, 2007 10:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Whining About Cabrera
Who knows exactly what was offered (or rejected)? I actually think the Giants still have a shot at BOTH Miguels this off-season, but it will take trading away a lot of young pitching (NOT Tim Boy or Matt), and maybe even (according to the papers) Bengie.

The Marlins taking Durham (albeit we eat $4M+ of his salary) as a useful fourth player in the deal is not inconceivable. Durham may be done, but what if he bounces back to .260 with power. That's possible, and allows the Fish to move Uggla to third.

I'm staying open -- although anxious. No more Michael Tuckers, no more Pedro Feliz, not even Andy Marte. If we're gonna trade, let's get guys who actually show signs of life (like Delmon Young, fer gawd sakes!)

wCovington

by wcovington on Dec 1, 2007 11:33 AM PST up reply actions  

There is no mcab without tim or matt
period.

Also I don't see what the infatuation is with Bengie on this site. He pretty much is an average catcher at best in his decline who couldn't get on base 3/10 of the time last season.

Also why would the Marlins move Uggla to third, that kills so much of his value. If anything they'd trade him before they resorted to that.

Also if Durham is a 4th player in the mcab deal, what are your 3 players? Lowry, Sanchez and Villalona? Cause the Marlins would laugh you off the phone with that offer.

by awesomer @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 1, 2007 12:12 PM PST up reply actions  

What value?
Also why would the Marlins move Uggla to third, that kills so much of his value.

What value are you talking about? Is he going to low his hitting touch? Are they going to place him lower in batting order? Will he only play on odd days? Isn't this dependent on who plays 2 and how it compliments his team?

by wilriv21 on Dec 1, 2007 1:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: What value?
A player's value is built by how much he can help his team.  If he can play a position that doesn't generally have good hitters (such as shortstop and catcher), the value of the same hitting is much greater than if he has to play a position where the hitters are much better (such as first base or a corner outfield position).

by sharksrog on Dec 2, 2007 11:16 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Whining About Cabrera
The Giants shouldn't trade what it would take to get Miguel Cabrera without first signing him to a long extension.

Brian Sabean gave up three good pitchers for a player in A.J. Pierzynski that he lost in a single year.  He likely shouldn't give up even more for two years of Miguel Cabrera.

by sharksrog on Dec 1, 2007 11:33 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Whining About Cabrera
Doesn't matter.  
The Angels both need Cabrera and can afford him.  They give up one of their 6 SPs, their 2bman - and then replace him with Figgins (who otherwise would be without a position), and 2 minor leaguers.  Good players all, but their loss creates no holes in their roster - and they can plug in Cabrera either before or after Vlad.
  The Giants roster is getting better but it is not deep.  Giving up Linc creates an unfillable hole (for a #1 starter) and the deal is exceedingly unlikely to get done without him.  Losing Henn, Sanchez, Correia, Misch creates pretty large holes in RP and SP.  That is too many losses.  Losing Lewis is OK, as he can be replaced.  Same with Lowry or ONE of Henn, Correai, Sanchez, but only one.
  Finally, no one has talked about the effect of  hitting in the NL west and hitting in the Giants lineup (ie, no protection and the pitched around factor) would have on Cabrera's production.

by allfrank on Dec 1, 2007 10:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Does it make much difference whether Winn is in center or right? At one position, he's an offensive plus but only okay in the field; at the other, he's a little below average as a hitter but a big plus with the glove. I don't think there's more than a few runs worth of difference either way. I'd rather keep Winn in right and see how Davis and Lewis do in center over a full season.

by Evan on Dec 1, 2007 9:18 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Randy's best defensive position is left field, where his arm isn't as challenged.  But he hits like a center fielder.

by sharksrog on Dec 1, 2007 11:34 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Yes.  But he is a balance between Juan Pierre's noodle arm and someone like Edmonds or Andruw Jones.
Hitler was a Dodgers fan.

by The Nick on Dec 1, 2007 1:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Oh, and another thing: get rid of Dave Roberts anyway you can! We'll pay some of his salary. He's in the way. I'd rather Raj. Someone can use Roberts --maybe even the Braves if they haven't seen him play CF like Marvin Barnard.
wCovington

by wcovington on Dec 1, 2007 11:38 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
for sure dump roberts to anyone that will take him.  need to get raj, lewis and schierholtz field time.  if bengie really has value get something for him too, he's great with the young pitching but his d is deteriorating, he cant possibly be as clutch as he was last year and his baserunning (maybe basewalking is more accurate) single handedly killed quite a few innings last year.  he'd be a nice piece for a good team, but he's almost worthless in this rebuilding project.  shouldnt we be able to land 1 or 2 good, not great, prospects (3b, of, 1b, ss) for durham, roberts, and bengie?  what do the braves have in their farm system thats reasonable for roberts?

by sam23 on Dec 2, 2007 12:59 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
what do the braves have in their farm system thats reasonable for roberts?

Sunflower seeds. Bobblehead dolls. Used jars of Vap-o-Rub. The Braves system is stocked with reasonable trades for Dave Roberts.

by Grant Brisbee on Dec 2, 2007 1:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Wow. Anybody notice the poll on the main page is approaching 1200 votes? That's a whole lot of cookie clearing by some bored users. I thin I've voted about 5 times, but only when my computer erases my cookies by default about once every month or so.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 3, 2007 2:07 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Or, not even cookies. I guess you just have to sign out.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 3, 2007 2:08 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
Actually, my site is just that popular.

by Grant Brisbee on Dec 3, 2007 9:39 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
There's no truth to the rumors that 900 of the votes are from user "Not Grant Pretending To Be Someone Else". None whatsoever.

And when I say there is none, I mean there is a certain amount.

This is my signature, not Goofus's.

by EliminateMe on Dec 3, 2007 1:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Late Night
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Giants aren't seriously in the running for either Tejada or Cabrera, given what each team is demanding in return.  The Orioles have put it out there that they will not eat any of Tejada's $13 million/yr salary, and Cabrera isn't allowing any suitor to pursue an extension, so the cost for both is prohibitively high for what you are getting in return.  As for the Andruw Jones sweepstakes, apparently Scott Boras wants even more money for Jones than what Torii Hunter got from the Angels, and there is no way that Jones is worth $19 million per for 3 years or more.

So what we are left with is exactly what Sabean said over the weekend: a pursuit this week of younger players to fill several positions to go along with the guys we already have for several of them.

by Buck Henry on Dec 3, 2007 7:29 AM PST reply actions  

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