Even more BA love for Velez
In a (non-subscribers-only) chat on the fall leagues, BA's Chris Kline says the most extraordinary thing about his expectations for Velez in 2008:
Q: Mark from Skokie asks: Who of the AFL National League prospects do you see making the biggest impact in 2008?
A: Chris Kline: Eugenio Velez, Giants; Sam Fuld, Cubs; Matt Antonelli, Padres; and I'll go out on a limb and say that Rockies lefty Sean Thompson could be a bullpen fit.
Q: Russ from Chicago asks: Matt Antonelli has not fared very well thus far in the AFL. With Marcus Giles not coming back to San Diego next year, what are Antonelli's chances of even having a realistic shot of claiming the 2B job this coming spring?
A: Chris Kline: Going back to the last answer, I think it's very realistic.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/chat.php?id=2007110201
I include the second question, about Antonelli, because it clarifies what Kline means by impact - he expects Velez to start for the Giants next year. Wow. Add this to the Kline article that keenlow posted in his diary a few days ago (NL scout even lauding Velez' defensive skills at 2b (!) and expecting him to spend all of 2008 in SF), and its dizzying. But, but... despite his breakout season at Augusta he didn't make BA's Giants top-30 list coming into this year; and just a month ago John Manuel didn't even include Velez on his Eastern League top-20 list; and during his September callup I remember an article about the coaches working with Velez on his serious defensive deficiencies at 2b, especially his throwing.
Eugenio Velez starting for the Giants at 2b next year and leading off? Now there's an exciting thought. Man, I hope Chris Kline isn't just messing with us.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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69 comments
Comments
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
I just don't get it. All the enthusiasm for Eugenio Velez must be a form of mass psychosis or something. Nearly every day, we get new links and new diaries about how impressive he is in the AFL. And yet his OBP is .329!
Without power!
In Arizona!
As one of the oldest players in the league!
And he was crappy all season in AA too!
It's nutty, I tell ya.
by Evan on Nov 3, 2007 11:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Super fast!
Just give me 1-2 decent power hitters.
I think that eyes are opening on Velez because his XBH capacity looks like it might not be too bad, and if you combine that with his speed, and the fact that he can play a position that does not typically produce well offensively, he looks pretty hot. Now if he would just put on a few pounds, preferably muscle.
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
by hairball on Nov 3, 2007 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Super fast!
by giantsrainman on Nov 3, 2007 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Super fast!
Well, other than the fact that Roberts actually has a decent track record of reaching base against major league pitching.
by Bhaakon on Nov 3, 2007 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Super fast!
also, Velez has more of an upside with regard to developing slugging capabilities.
And if you consider that he hasn't posted an OBP over .360 since 2001 and only once (in 2001) has he gone over that mark, I'd say Eugenio Velez is a much better option in the lineup, especially considering he could probably play up the middle in the infield.
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Nov 3, 2007 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Super fast!
To be honest, Velez would be lucky to have a career like Roberts. Also, to be honest, I don't think either one is a very good fit on this team (simply because any player that isn't a particularly good hitter is a poor fit on a team that has no good hitters).
by Bhaakon on Nov 3, 2007 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Super fast!
But no, the one good season at a low level isn't enough for him having actual power potential.
by BruteSentiment on Nov 3, 2007 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Power
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 3, 2007 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Without Power?
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 3, 2007 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Without Power?
Feliz had a .165 ISO in '07 and I think his power is grossly overrated.
by xanthan on Nov 3, 2007 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Without Power?
My main concern with Velez is that he's not going to get on base enough to take advantage of his speed.
by xanthan on Nov 3, 2007 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Without Power?
The fourteen home runs in Augusta were exciting, but at this point they just look flukish.
by Evan on Nov 3, 2007 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
It wouldn't surprise me if Velez starts the season at Fresno.
by Calvnhob on Nov 3, 2007 11:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
by rxmeister on Nov 3, 2007 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
by boonitez on Nov 3, 2007 12:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
All he does is have the 9th-best average, 5th best slugging percentage, and 6th best OPS (.351/.373/.632/1.004). All three stats rank better than former-teammate Evan Longoria (.308/.378/.585/.963). He's one home run away from a share of the league lead (3, eight players have 4 to lead the league), he's tied for 6th in doubles (5, league lead is 8 and all but one of the players with as many or more doubles have played in more games than Nate's 14 GP), and he's one of the only 28 players with a triple (league league is 3, Nate is one of the many tied at 10th most).
I'm not saying he's a sure thing, but I definitely think he's better than being essentially ignored.
by BruteSentiment on Nov 3, 2007 1:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
by giantsrainman on Nov 3, 2007 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
by Evan on Nov 3, 2007 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
by rxmeister on Nov 3, 2007 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
by Goofus on Nov 4, 2007 7:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Talking about Velez
by wilriv21 on Nov 3, 2007 6:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
One Game?
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 3, 2007 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Talking about Velez
by Smotheredinhugs on Nov 3, 2007 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 3, 2007 10:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
DIARY HIJACK!!!

by PacBellBoozer on Nov 4, 2007 5:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: DIARY HIJACK!!!
YEY
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 4, 2007 8:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
HEY!
by jponry on Nov 4, 2007 6:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: HEY!
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 4, 2007 7:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: HEY!
by jponry on Nov 4, 2007 9:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: HEY!
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 5, 2007 9:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: HEY!
by jponry on Nov 5, 2007 12:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: HEY!
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 5, 2007 1:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: HEY!
As for the ACC "superiority" in hoops...suck it! Pac-10 is better!
by PacBellBoozer on Nov 5, 2007 1:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: HEY!
The funny thing, of course, is that when BC left the Big East for the ACC, it was thought that they were leaving the weak conference for the strong one! Strange what a difference three years can make.
by jponry on Nov 5, 2007 2:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: HEY!
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 5, 2007 2:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: HEY!
Well Played!
by PacBellBoozer on Nov 5, 2007 4:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
Eugenio's batting average of .303 is nice, as is his .461 SLG. But for a banjo hitter to strike out 17 times in only 76 at bats isn't good, and when it is compounded by only three walks, I would say that was a very negative sign.
We all love to watch him run, but I don't think Eugenio is going to become much of a batter. We probably shouldn't forget that in the same league a year ago, Kevin Frandsen hit over 100 points higher than Eugenio is hitting -- AND had a much better walk-to-strikeout ratio.
by sharksrog on Nov 4, 2007 12:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Resourceful
I gotta compliment you on your resourcefulness in finding interesting and original new ways to point out Eugenio Velez strikeout problem. I learn something new about it every day.
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 4, 2007 7:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Resourceful
by rxmeister on Nov 4, 2007 7:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shark
Anyway......Hey Shark! I think all of us here are smart enough baseball fans to realize that Eugenio Velez is not the next Rickey Henderson.
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 4, 2007 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Shark
All Tim lacked last season was control (an important skill to develop), perhaps a better understanding of his stuff by his catchers, and a bit better defensive support.
For Tim to become what I foresee for him, he will need to improve his control. IMO the most important pitch for Tim is strike one (as is the case with most pitchers). Once Tim gets ahead of a hitter, his curve and change up are tough to lay off of.
Even with his control issues of last season, Tim's numbers compare reasonably well with those of Marichal in Juanito's rookie season. Tim was a couple of months older in making his debut than was Juan.
Marichal fell back in his second season, and in fact it wasn't until his fourth year that Juan pitched back to his rookie level. I expect significant improvement from Tim this coming season. His ZiPS projection is 3.28 IRC, with a one-in-seven shot at an ERA of 2.58 or below.
I think to call me questionably exuberant would be fine. But I think it is a bit too soon to unequivocally say that I was irrationally exuberant. If that does turn out to be the case, it will be a rare occurrence for me.
I could have made a much lower projection for Tim than I did, taking a safer route and still supporting Tim with my predictions. But I went with what I believed, even though I realized I was taking a risk. But when one believes something, wouldn't it be dishonest to state otherwise?
If I am wrong, it won't be the first time. But if I'm right, that won't be alone, either.
by sharksrog on Nov 5, 2007 12:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Marichal
Not to take anything away from Tim Lincecum, but to mention him, or anyone else in the same breath as Juan Marichal just doesn't do justice to either pitcher.
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 5, 2007 2:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Resourceful
I am somewhat encouraged by Burriss's fine turnaround this fall, but I'm not overly impressed by Velez -- and I think Richardson has an extreme uphill battle.
Let's just see how these guys turn out and then see who here is the better "scout."
by sharksrog on Nov 4, 2007 1:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Resourceful
I don't always with agree with everyone around here but I still respect them. I think Shark has brought forth legitimate points of discussion.
by xanthan on Nov 4, 2007 9:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Legitimate
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 4, 2007 9:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Legitimate
It's his opinion, and he's entitled to it. As much as you're entitled to your own.
Thats the whole point of "discussing" something, two sides debate an issue.
by xanthan on Nov 4, 2007 9:27 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Repetitive
I do think it is mildly fascinating to think about a potential "rabbit" lineup with all three of those guys or something similar in it. I've always been fascinated and a bit envious of teams like the old Dodgers of the 60s' or the Cardinals of the 80's who could bunt for basehits, steal a bunch of bases and generally drive fans of other teams(like me) crazy. I admit teams like that don't necessarlly score a ton of runs and you have to back it up with great pitching, but I don't see a ton of big bats in our future right now.
I like Shark. he has a lot of good ideas. He does have an annoying tendency to take one thought and beat it into the ground. I really liked a comment he made in another thread about looking for trades of veterans and letting the kids play. I'd remind him, though, that if we play the kids, we're going to have to accept that they have a few warts too.
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 4, 2007 12:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Repetitive
And I'm hoping the Giants can get some good prospects for the veterans, even if those prospects are still in Class A.
Years ago the Giants were able to get Rich Aurilia along with Desi Wilson in a deal for John Burkett. Richie had hit only .234 in his first season in AA, but he rebounded to his .327 in his first season for the Giants at AA Shreveport before being promoted to AAA Phoenix and then to the Giants in September.
Richie was a guy coming off an off year, and the Giants were able to snag a guy who went on to hit as many as 37 homers for the Giants, a feat not accomplished by too many shortstops in history.
by sharksrog on Nov 4, 2007 1:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Repetitive
For instance, I think Rajai Davis and Freddie Lewis might make an acceptable platoon in center, with Nate Schierholtz and Dan Ortmeier forming a decent platoon in right or left.
When it isn't possible to get a productive player at a position, quite often the easiest and cheapest way to fill the position is with a platoon that takes advantages of two players' strengths while minimizing their weaknesses.
by sharksrog on Nov 4, 2007 1:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
Burriss ranks among the younger players in the AFL, and certainly coming from Low-A (despite the failures at High-A to start the season), wouldn't rank very high on most lists.
But since starting 0-10 in his first four games, he has a four game hitting streak, and the last three games were multiple hit games. He's now batting 9-25 with a double and a triple, with two walks to one strikeout. The current line for him is .360/.429/.480.
Burriss had a forgettable season, especially in San Jose, but he's impressing me with his ability to bounce back, first in the season and now in a late start in the AFL.
by BruteSentiment on Nov 4, 2007 2:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
by xanthan on Nov 4, 2007 9:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
Even back when he was 0-for-10, I mentioned that the one positive was that he had two walks compared to just one strikeout.
Now it is indeed possible I am going overboard with this strikeout-to-walk-to-power ratio think, but can anyone identify even a handful of weak-hitting players in the minors who struck out a lot in the minors, had little power, walked little and yet has gone on to become a good major league hitter?
I will try to search for some, but I hardly even know where to start.
by sharksrog on Nov 4, 2007 1:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Find One
Like I've said before, I don't follow those stats, so I can't give you names and I don't really care if they exist or not.
All I know is Edgardo Alfonso rarely struck out while he was in SF and he was horrible. AJ rarely struck out for another example.
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 4, 2007 2:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Find One
Please allow me a little rebuttal, however.
Regarding a comparison of strikeout-to-walk-to-power ratios to short, slight pitchers in the Hall of Fame, one is a physical measurement; the other is a measure of performance.
And, yes, I do believe there ARE several short, slight pitchers in the Hall, including Juan Marichal. I would agree, however, that most of the short, slight guys filled out over their careers and played in the early two-thirds of mlb history.
As for Edgardo Alfonzo and A.J Pierzynski's rarely striking out, you are correct. And both have been better than average major league hitters for their positions, as has been illustated by one All-Star berth for Edgardo and three finishes in the MVP voting, as well as two All-Star berths for A.J., with one finish in the MVP voting.
Edgardo was a huge disappointment with the Giants, primarily because his power had disappeared. But his .259, .289 and .277 batting averages for the Giants were far from horrible -- particularly since he could take a walk. With Edgardo, it was more that expectations were understandably high than that his performance was horrible (at least until his third SF season).
Expectations and attitude were A.J.'s primary problem with the Giants. He actually hit pretty close to his career averages despite changing leagues, and his 27 strikeouts were a career low. Unfortunately, he grounded into as many double plays (27) as he had in his two previous seasons and more than he would ground into in his next two seasons after leaving the Giants.
But A.J.'s problem with the Giants was his attitude far moreso than his hitting.
But let's say you are right and that neither Edgardo nor A.J. were good hitters despite not striking out a lot. I didn't say all hitters who don't strike out a lot are good hitters. Kevin Frandsen is an example of a player who may or may not become a good hitter, yet who certainly doesn't strike out much. What I said is that I couldn't think of (nor have since been able to find) a player who had a poor strikeout-to-walk-to-power ratio in the minor leagues who went on to become a good hitter in the majors.
There may have been a few, but there haven't been many. They're not easy to find.
by sharksrog on Nov 5, 2007 12:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Find One
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=13795
and one to Velez's Minor league stats
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=15069
Obviously the sample set is slightly different as Velez has 500 more at bats. The age difference actually is a question mark. This link lists Soriano as being born in 1978, which makes him 21 and 22 in these years, but this was before his true DOB came out which is 1976.
All of sudden these numbers look remarkably alike.
I didn't have this in my back pocket or anything, I was strictly thinking body type here. Curious though.
Here's a good old article on short pitchers. You've probably seen it.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/mckarmey_2003-07-28_1/
by Smotheredinhugs on Nov 5, 2007 2:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Find One
Since Alfonso is two years older and his minor-league age hasn't been updated Alfonso was in AAA at the age of 23, while Eugenio was 25 before playing there. Alfonso also played briefly in the majors at age 23.
Alfonso played in AAA and for a time in the majors at age 24, while Eugenio played at Low A Augusta, three levels below AAA and four below the majors.
Alfonso played full-time in the majors at age 25. Velez played primarily in AA with stints in AAA and the majors.
Alfonso had seven more home runs in two minor-league seasons than Eugenio has in five. If one takes away the 2006 season in which Eugenio was playing three levels below Alfonso at the same age, Alfonso had more than three times as many home runs in two years as Eugenio has had in four.
Alfonso averaged 1.64 bases per hit, while Eugenio averaged 1.51. Last season Eugenio averaged only 1.32 bases per hit in the minors, although that could have been limited by the injury he suffered in spring training.
So Soriano hit with considerably more authority despite playing at much higher levels at the same age. On the other hand, Velez appears to be an even better base stealer than was Soriano.
by sharksrog on Nov 6, 2007 11:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
Keep in mind that the regular season career ratios for the Giants trio are as follows:
Velez -- 5.3 AB/SO, 3.0 SO/BB, 12.6 SO/HR
Burriss -- 8.3 AB/SO, 1.4 SO/BB, 91.0 SO/HR
Richardson -- 4.8 AB/SO, 1.3 SO/BB, 199.0 SO/HR
Burriss likely has the best numbers of the three, since he strikes out far less often than the other two.
Velez is the only member of the trio who has hit an even slightly significant number of home runs, and his numbers are skewed by the 14 homers he hit at Augusta in 2006, a year in which he was significantly older than his peers.
Richardson does the best job of the three in drawing walks, and in fact is very good at that skill.
But all the non-powerful yet successful hitters I have been able to find have struck out far less often than either Richardson or Velez. Burriss's numbers would seem to indicate a better chance than either of the other two.
And although none of these guys is young, the soon-to-be 23-year-old Burriss is the youngest of the group.
With very good prospects being an A, fair prospects a B, marginal prospects being a C and virtual non-prospects being a D, I would give Burriss a B and the other two a C. I might even go C+ on Velez.
Maybe someone else can increase my confidence level in these guys by pointing out weak-hitting players who struck out a lot in the minors who have gone on to become valued major leaguers. I just haven't been able to find any and don't really know where else to look.
There MUST be one or two out there. But I can't find them.
Anyway, I AM feeling a bit better about Burriss -- although I would feel better yet if his second-season numbers had more closely approached those of his first year. But if his strong recovery in the AZFL continues, I will consider that to be a very good time balance.
I'm sure the Giants would like Emmanuel to make it up to AA this year, and if he is strong at San Jose, I would think AAA might not even be out of the question.
We will likely learn more about Emmanuel at the AA and AAA levels. Man, that 1.18 bases per hit just KILLS me though. At least this fall he has gotten it up to a slightly visible 1.33 bags per knock. And for one game he actually had it all the way up to 1.50.
As Giants fans, we have to look hard to find hitting hope. :)
by sharksrog on Nov 4, 2007 2:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
by BruteSentiment on Nov 4, 2007 7:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
by sharksrog on Nov 5, 2007 12:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Even more BA love for Velez
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 5, 2007 12:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Grades
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 4, 2007 5:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 4, 2007 5:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Grades
I definitely don't agree with a B grade for Burriss. That seems way to high to me. C+ sounds about right.
by Roger on Nov 5, 2007 5:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Grades
Manny, as he now seems to be called, was decent in his first season, but really fell back this past year. He has been good in the AZFL, with nine hits in his last 15 at bats and with two walks compared to a single strikeout in 25 at bats. Manny has struck out just once every 8.3 at bats in the regular season, which is actually pretty good.
What concerns me most about Manny is his lack of pop. IRC he has averaged just 1.18 bases per hit in the regular season, with a fair percentage of the extra bases likely coming from his speed. He has averaged 1.33 bases per hit in the AZFL.
The more I think about it, the more a B- seems about right for Manny. While I see Antoan as, unfortunately, likely a non-factor and Eugenio as a likely minor (not minor league) utility player whose primary value is as a pinch runner, I see Manny as a more solid utility player or possibly even a bottom-half starter.
We should know a lot more about Manny a year from now. In a best-case scenario, he makes it up to AA (conceivably even AAA) and does fairly well. That type of performance would likely get him back to the B level. Worst-case, he doesn't show tremendous improvement at San Jose and begins to move downward toward the suspect category.
At 22, Manny does have the advantage of being three years younger than Eugenio and two years younger than Antoan. He still seems young enough for something good to possibly happen.
by sharksrog on Nov 5, 2007 12:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
spelling...
by Lyle on Nov 5, 2007 7:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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