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Sophie's Choice

Suppose Wayne Krivsky, GM of the Reds, called Brian Sabean and said, "Look, we need an ace, but we need one that's under contract for a few years. We'll give you Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Edwin Encarnacion for either Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum. Either one. I know I'm overpaying, but that's kind of the spot we're in. Heck, we'll take back Dave Roberts in the deal. And if you throw in Barry Zito, we'll toss in Homer Bailey."

Obviously, Sabean should do the deal. It is a completely unrealistic and lopsided trade. But in this land of fantasy, should Sabean trade Cain or Lincecum?

I'll take my question off the air.

Also, I know the correct answer, but I can't tell you.

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Re: Sophie's Choice
Three young major league ready position players for either Lincecum or Cain?  I would do back flips across a room of broken glass into a vat of vomit to do that deal.  Every pitcher is a sore shoulder away from being an albatross.

However, since the Giants are sure to suck anyway, I say keep your cheap young pitchers because they are fan favorites.

by Sinister Dick on Nov 28, 2007 9:14 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
You trade Cain.

Lincecum, as a freak of nature, is far more marketable, and even with Encarnacion, Bruce, Votto, and zombie Mel Ott, this team isn't going to win anything except maybe bingo (zombie Mel Ott loves bingo).  If you want to sell this team, you sell it on the Enchanter.

That's me being a cynical douche.  This is me trying to win ballgames...

You clearly, obviously trade Lincecum.  Cain's built like a workhorse, he's got a classic pitcher's build and a consistent pattern of improvement.  Lincecum is built like your 12 y/o sister.  He's filthy, and there's that tantalizing BA comment of him being a "once-in-a-generation talent," but still--TINSTAAPP.  TINSTAAPP.  TINSTAAPP.  (apply directly to the forehead)

"When Jackson Williams thinks of how many times Madison Bumgarner has tried to kill Tyler Walker..."

by multiphasic on Nov 28, 2007 9:16 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Matt is indeed built like a workhorse, is very athletic for his size and has very good mechanics.  But Lincecum has arguably the best mechanics in the game and a dad who could still throw 88 mph at 55 years of age.

by sharksrog on Nov 28, 2007 1:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I should also mention that Tim is exceptionally flexible and has done a lot of work to increase both the flexibility and strength of his core.

by sharksrog on Nov 28, 2007 1:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Not to put too fine a point on it, but...  I know.  (cf. my other post: Yes, I understand that no one before has pitched like the Enchanter does--but that could mean he'll maintain a high level for an epochally long time, or that he'll flame out into mediocrity in a rather unremarkably short one.)  

I have no idea how to evaluate his susceptability to injury, because there's no baseline for comparison.  But there is plenty of comparison for Cain, thus keeping Cain is the conservative, safe move.

"When Jackson Williams thinks of how many times Madison Bumgarner has tried to kill Tyler Walker..."

by multiphasic on Nov 28, 2007 2:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Absolutely. It's nothing against Tim, and I would prefer to keep him, but if the discussion is which one would be the better choice to trade... then Cain's seeming predictability would argue in his favor.
The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle on Nov 29, 2007 6:41 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
"I have no idea how to evaluate his susceptability to injury, because there's no baseline for comparison."

Sandy Koufax?

This is my signature, not yours.

by Goofus on Nov 29, 2007 8:45 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I don't know if thats good or bad...But it raises an interesting question: would we rather have 5 years of a phenomenal pitcher or ten of "just" a great one? I think that in the situation we are in, not being in contention for at least two years, we should stick to the pitcher who would stay good for long. Of course, we don't really know that Cain is going to last longer or that Lincecum is going to be better, so everything I just wrote is pretty much meaningless. Oh well.
You deserve to be struck out when your first name's a verb

by Cookyman on Nov 29, 2007 9:11 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I'd guess we lose either to FA before they wear down like Koufax did. He pitched 10 full seasons.
This is my signature, not yours.

by Goofus on Nov 29, 2007 10:48 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
True, but nowadays neither Koufax nor Drysdale would have had to retire as early as they did. They'd have cleanup procedures on their elbows long before the pain forced them out of the game. Hell Smokey Joe Wood might have had the greatest career in history if TJ had been available in 1913.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Nov 29, 2007 12:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Working on his core?  That sounds familiar.  I think I knew a guy that worked on his core a lot last Winter.  I think his name was Larry Vito.  Er...wait...something like that.
Vizquel leads by a higher level of example. --BS (Brian Sabean)

by Woody Wins on Nov 28, 2007 3:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Sometimes I get the feeling that all of our pitchers are apples.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Nov 28, 2007 6:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Yes, but you have to distinguish.

We have a few choice home apples, but at least a lug or two of road apples.

by Moggeee on Nov 28, 2007 6:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Yes, and the Giants need to trade for oranges.

by sb on Nov 28, 2007 8:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Way to go. Now Sabean will give his dad $120m/7.
Twenty-seven years of waiting has come to an end.

by trapper9 on Nov 28, 2007 6:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Linc would have to go. much like rooting for the team with the best mascot, i always assume one day the giants will enter a huge pistons-pacers like brawl with the dodgers and we need Big Kid Cain to rough 'em up.
Dodgers fans eat their young.

by redhornet78 on Nov 28, 2007 9:17 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I think Sabean does that deal.  He's not stupid.  Yes, yes, I know he's done some stupid things.  But they were based on certain philosophies and restrictions that don't apply here.
Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 28, 2007 9:18 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Nothing to do with th topic, but not worth a diary
From Buster Olney's blog "In the event the Cubs can't sign Matsui, they are looking to deal for a left-handed hitting middle infielder..."

Durham can switch hit, is that close enough?

I did MY job.

by MeSoKrabby on Nov 28, 2007 9:18 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Nothing to do with th topic, but not worth a d
They did trade for Kendall last year so you know they have no problem acquiring hitters that are years past their prime.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Nov 28, 2007 9:47 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Nothing to do with th topic, but not worth a d
Well Durham sucks, but he's actually only one year past his prime.
You deserve to be struck out when your first name's a verb

by Cookyman on Nov 28, 2007 2:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
You absolutely do the deal. But trade Lincecum. Cain is actually YOUNGER and I believe the better guy to keep. Plus we still have numerous pitching prospects on the way. Including a couple of studs from last year's draft.

by S49erfan on Nov 28, 2007 9:28 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

C'mon, Grant
Just a little hint?
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Nov 28, 2007 9:33 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: C'mon, Grant
I just checked and Grant posted the answer on the super-secret hidden sub-page.  You know, the one with all the pictures of naked ladies and the simple 30-second secret recipe for turning water into beer.  

I was surprised by his answer, but it makes perfect sense.

This is my signature, not yours.

by Goofus on Nov 28, 2007 11:27 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: C'mon, Grant
Well, that's funny, because I was not surprised at all by his answer and it didn't make any sense to me.
Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 28, 2007 4:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Sabes would do the deal if he could work it into a Three-Way and swap Benji for Pierzynski ...

wha?

by NuschlersDip on Nov 28, 2007 9:43 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I would train Cain.  Lincecum being older is actually a good thing, it means he's less of an injury risk.  Lincecum is a potential once in a generation talent, Cain is "just" a potential ace.  I realize the distinction is minor, almost to the point of retardation, but I think Lincecum could become the best pitcher in the majors while I believe Cain could become one of the top 10.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Nov 28, 2007 9:43 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I don't think those four months make that much of a difference.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Nov 28, 2007 9:56 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Agreed, I was just responding to the "Cain is actually younger" crowd.  For pitchers, that isn't always a good thing.
Adoptive father of David Quinowski: Fuck it, dude, let's go bowling

by marcello on Nov 28, 2007 10:06 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Question and a comment.
Out of curiosity, seeing as many people here are "statheads", I assume that you subscribe to many of Billy Beane's theories in Moneyball. If that's incorrect you can stop reading right now. With that assumption, why is it that so many of you would trade Lincecum rather than Cain, based on the idea that someone above so eloquently put it, "Cain's built like a workhorse, he's got a classic pitcher's build...Lincecum is built like your 12 y/o sister."? (Not to pick on that poster, because I've seen many people here use that ideology). Isn't Beane the one that would rather have the guy with better stats than base his opinion on the guys' body type?

My opinion on the question: Keep 'em both. I realize that you'd get more value in return at positions that we need, but it makes me genuinely sad to think of either pitcher on another team. I'd be very, very critical of the guys we got in return (as would most of Giants Nation), and it just wouldn't be as fun to me. Just my honest opinion. That, and I think if we could manage to get to the playoffs with a below average to average offense (assuming that could happen, don't ask me how), we'd be in a fantastic situation because of our pitching staff (Zito, Oakland's "ace" last time they made the playoffs, would be our #3 guy!)

by UnleashTheGore on Nov 28, 2007 9:57 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Question and a comment.
I think there'd be more people willing to trade kid Hill instead the Enchanter if Tim had Matt's "experience."

We see how Tim is built (in truth he's much more similar to a 12 year old boy than a girl) and we don't necessarily trust he'll keep it up.

Also, please do not use the term "Giants Nation" ever again.

Do they know to win the game a team has to actually score at least once?

by noahthek on Nov 28, 2007 10:56 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Question and a comment.
"Also, please do not use the term "Giants Nation" ever again."

Have to agree....on the term "Giants Nation ".
On the trade, I am a little more non-committal. My head says "Yes, Please. Tim for Votto, Bruce, and Encarnacion ? Duh ! I think even Sabes could/should do that.
My heart however says no. :-(

My adopted son Matt Downs. He can hit a little.

by nvsfg on Nov 28, 2007 11:18 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry
I had doubts about that phrasing as I typed it, but couldn't think of any synonyms at the time. I will go with McCoven from now on.

by UnleashTheGore on Nov 28, 2007 11:25 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sorry
It just brings to mind the obnoxious "Raider Nation" idiots, and the pompous "Red Sox Nation" Fans.

Although if I was a Red Sox fan, I suppose they would have a right to be somewhat pompous after kicking serious Yankee ass in 2004 to get to the WS, and thoroughly dismantling the NL Champion Rockies this year.

Sigh, that is still hard to say.

My adopted son Matt Downs. He can hit a little.

by nvsfg on Nov 28, 2007 11:41 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Question and a comment.
I think trying to place an evaluation of Lincecum's injury risk in the context of Moneyball is like trying to place Rimbaud in the context of Ewoks: Battle for Endor.

Basically, keeping Cain over Lincecum is the "conservative" way to go.  Cain seems less liable for an injury.  Yes, I understand that no one before has pitched like the Enchanter does--but that could mean he'll maintain a high level for an epochally long time, or that he'll flame out into mediocrity in a rather unremarkably short one.  Jamie Sommers or Jamey Wright.  We have no baseline by which to judge.

There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect--c.f. a Mark Prior non-tender.

"When Jackson Williams thinks of how many times Madison Bumgarner has tried to kill Tyler Walker..."

by multiphasic on Nov 28, 2007 11:13 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Question and a comment.
I don't know that Cain seems less liable for injury. He's been injured before in the minors, yet the Enchanter has never been hurt, nor does he need to even ice his arm. Of course, that doesn't mean that he won't get injured, but I see that as a positive note that he is less liable for injury.

And something I forgot to mention earlier was that I feel Timmy's command is much better than Cain's. From what I've seen, he is able to use his curveball as much or more than Cain, and at the end of the year was getting much better with his changeup. Cain, on the other hand, seems to get into a zone sometimes and just pitches fastballs. He's got a good curve when it's on, but something inside me worries that once people figure out his fastball, he's going to get into a lot of trouble if he can't get a better feel for his other pitches.

by UnleashTheGore on Nov 28, 2007 11:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Question and a comment.
Cain's injury is in the distant past, and he's put two full seasons in with no significant problems, as opposed to Lincecum's one 3/4s of a season.

FWIW, I have no conviction that I'm right.  I just think keeping Cain is the safer play, CW-wise.

"When Jackson Williams thinks of how many times Madison Bumgarner has tried to kill Tyler Walker..."

by multiphasic on Nov 28, 2007 12:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Question and a comment.
Jay Bruce is considered one of the top prospects in all the minor leagues. Last winter a guy e-mailed me and asked if I thought Tim or Jay was the better prospect.  

I told him I really didn't know much about Bruce, but that I couldn't see anything based on his first season that made him appear nearly as exciting as Tim.  Bruce, who is just 20, batted .325 in A ball, .333 in AA and .305 in AAA this past season, indicating that he should be ready for the majors at age 21.  He also hammered 26 homers between the three stops.

The only negatives I can find with Jay is that he struck out 135 times in 521 at bats while walking only 47 times and that he stole only eight bases in 15 attempts.  But how impressive is it when a 20-year-old puts up a .925 OPS in AAA ball in 181 at bats?

With the type of season Jay had, I basically feel like an idiot for not being able to (far) more readily recognize his obvious talent.  I'm don't think the Reds would trade Jay straight up for Tim, and I'm pretty sure they wouldn't do so for Matt Cain.

Like Lincecum, Bruce appears to have Hall of Fame potential.  Cain might, but I wouldn't bet on it.

by sharksrog on Nov 28, 2007 2:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Grant, your proposed deals are totally unrealistic. Krivsky won't do a deal unless a RELIEVER is involved.

by lunaticfringe1 on Nov 28, 2007 9:58 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
we still have ricardo rincon dickin around on a minor league contract right?
you will suffer humiliation when the sports team from my area defeats the sports team from your area

by nick on Nov 28, 2007 10:35 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
If forced to choose between the two, I guess I'd trade Cain. But that doesn't reflect a preference based on projection or injury concerns, the determining factor to me would simply be controllability. We control Lincecum for six years and Cain for four, and standing at the very forefront of a rebuilding program those two years could become crucial.

What happens with Eric Bedard in the next couple of months is an interesting test case here. The Orioles would desperately like to keep him and build around him as one of the new premier pitchers in the league. But Bedard has so far rebuffed every extension offer. He see the Orioles past history and disfunctional nature, and quite rightly, I imagine, is thinking why yolk myself to this train wreck when I can go out and get paid fabulously to perhaps play somewhere where games are fun and meaningful. The Orioles have gathered that their only chance of keeping him is to substantially overpay the market -- but in the current climate that's virtually impossible. Who's to say what the market will be in two years at it's current rate of expansion. And of course, they'd be helping to set it by whatever offer they make to Bedard, thus undoing the "overpayment".

So, they figure, if we're forced to trade him then we should trade him this winter when he's two years away from FA rather than wait a year. Teams might be willing to pay substantially more for two years of Bedard then they would for one year.

How does this apply to the Giants? Alot of folks here seem ot think there's virtually no hope of competing in '08 or '09. At that point we're four years into Matt's six year clock, he's never played on a .500 team, he thinks about all the W's the Giants have cost him (and the hit his HOF/Cy Young/All Star chances have taken as a result) and he's eyeing the market and rebuffing Giant's offers. And we find ourselves suddenly half way into a rebuilding effort that's being threatened with the loss of possibly it's key player and have to deal with the looming question of do we have to move him? when do we move him? what can we get for him?

Yuck. But at the same point of time, Timmy's still ours to control for 4 years, during which time (hopefully) we can regain competitiveness thus making it more palatable to him to reup and stay for the long haul.

To sum up, keep the years, hope for the health and productivity.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Nov 28, 2007 10:10 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I understand your argument (and generally agree with it) but only wanted to point out that, despite our mixed feelings towards Sabes, Magowan and Baer, it's unfair the compare the Giants franchise with the Orioles. The level of dysfunction is not even remotely comparable. Peter Angelos has not only killed the Orioles' fanbase (which was once one of the best in the majors), but their players have so little loyalty towards his team that Kevin Millar, an active player, threw out the first pitch at Fenway in the playoffs for the Red Sox and the Orioles let him. No wonder Bedard wants out.

Cain endured a lot this year and did it gracefully, but I'd like to think he'll be inclined to stick around if he sees the Giants have a real rebuilding plan. Which I hope they do.

Lon Simmons' adopted dad.

by Kitspool on Nov 28, 2007 11:07 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Yeah, I don't mean to imply an direct analogy between the two organizations. But players (particularly high caliber players) who approach their FA having never played on a winning team can be pretty much guaranteed to walk. Mike Sweeney leaps to mind as an exception, but I frankly can't think of another one in the past 30 years and I doubt there are many.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Nov 28, 2007 11:42 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Off top of my head, Todd Helton, Vernon Wells (never won pennant or made playoffs), I guess that would include Roy Halladay too, though not sure when exactly he resigned.  
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 28, 2007 2:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Sorry. Perhaps I should have been more specific. When I said "winning" I meant it literally. I meant players who have never been on so much as .500 team. Wells had played on several winning clubs and in fact when he signed his extension Toronto had just had their best season of his career (a 2nd place finish over the Red Sox) leading to a reasonable belief they were heading in the right direction. Halladay signed his first extention during their 10 game improvement to 86 wins in '03 and his 2nd extension during their relatively successful '06 season. Helton is a pretty good example, but he did play on a couple of winning teams early. When he signed the extention they had just had a couple of just under .500 seasons following a just over .500 season. So yeah, decent comp there.  But of course Helton did represent one of the most massive over-market contracts of the time at 9/142.
My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Nov 28, 2007 3:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of Sabean: Is he the sort of man who would put The Enchanter into his own rotation or his enemy's?

by mxmob33 on Nov 28, 2007 10:16 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Being forced to choose between Tim and Matt is like being forced to choose which child is your favorite.  Good gravy, I'm not trading either of them if I don't have to, and in the "let's pretend" world, I still wouldn't choose one over the other!
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 28, 2007 10:22 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Yeah, being forced to choose which child is your favorite.  Reminds me of some movie... gosh, what was the name of it?  Maybe had Meryl Streep in an Oscar-winning performance?  Aw, nuts.

by mortimer on Nov 28, 2007 11:39 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Damn it!  You beat me to it.  Now what's the name of that movie?  Tip of me freakin' tongue...

-D

by dw4848 on Nov 28, 2007 11:43 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sophie's Choice
Idiots! It's "Sophie's Choice".  I'm really glad I'm smarter than you guys and was able to recall the title unaided.
This is my signature, not yours.

by Goofus on Nov 28, 2007 11:48 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
No, I don't think so my friend.  That would be a little TOO easy.  Now think brain, THINK!

-D

by dw4848 on Nov 28, 2007 12:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I think it was called The Bus that Couldn't Slow Down.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Nov 28, 2007 12:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
The Simpsons are funny.
Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 28, 2007 5:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
It's true, it's true! We're so lame!

by mortimer on Nov 28, 2007 6:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Sadly, I had no idea that's what Sophie's Choice referred to...  But unlike YOU pansies, I don't think I've ever seen a movie that prominently featured Meryl Streep.

So who's laughing now???  =)

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 28, 2007 12:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
"The River Wild" was pretty butch.  "Lions for Lambs" looks like a pretty good one, too.

(I'm laughing at you, not with you.)

This is my signature, not yours.

by Goofus on Nov 28, 2007 12:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Had to salvage some dignity on that one...  But thanks for making sure I look like a complete assface.  I appreciate it!  =)
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 28, 2007 1:13 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
It was my pleasure...truly! :-P
This is my signature, not yours.

by Goofus on Nov 28, 2007 2:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I'm pretty sure that was "Ewoks: Battle for Endor"

by zenbitz on Nov 28, 2007 3:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Alright, we've all had our fun at the expense of dumb ol' JR Phillips.  Joke's over, people!  We're done here!  Time to move on!
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 28, 2007 3:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Nice to see Dave Littlefield landed on his feet. Krivsky is his witness protection alias right?

 If asking me which of the Terrible Two I value more and would  make sure to grab as an earth quake & fire consumes the house?  One of the two reminds me heavily of a young Tommy Terrific. He did not grow up in Washington state. Need I say more?

by daveinexile on Nov 28, 2007 10:31 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

trade cain
he smells.
Enchanting Giants Fans since 2006

by wjackalope on Nov 28, 2007 10:55 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: trade cain
like money...
Brian Wilson for Closer!

by BawLa on Nov 28, 2007 11:17 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Trade Cain. Result? We suck.
Trade Lincecum. Result? We suck.
Trade Lowry. Result? We suck.

Do nothing. Result? We suck, but at least we have pitching.

If you wait long enough in this league, there's always a stupid GM willing to make a desperation deal. Unfortunately, his name is too often "Brian Sabean," but still. I have seen nothing worth trading any of our something for.

Tim Lincecum is the light and truth, and I will enjoy becoming pure energy when he determines it is time to ascend.

by HughG16 on Nov 28, 2007 11:00 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lowry
One of these things is not like the other.
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Nov 28, 2007 11:14 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
It is a trick question.  You trade neither.  Keeping them together is much more dynamic than anything we could get by trading one right now, because we don't live in fantasyland.

Down the line, after we have maxed his trading value, I would lean towards trading Cain, but down the line I would have to re-analyze based on that current situation.  

Brian Wilson for Closer!

by BawLa on Nov 28, 2007 11:16 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
But the NAZIS, man, they aren't giving us a choice! Or... ummm... they are giving us a choice, but not about whether or not to make the choice....
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Nov 28, 2007 12:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
If we're giving up one of them, I'd give up Lincecum.  Reason being both clearly have great stuff, but we've had more time to evaluate Matt Cain's mental makeup as a pitcher and he's thrived through some really trying circumstances.  Also, while I think most of the negative stuff about smallish RHP is bunk, when you've got a choice between two damn good pitchers, one of whom is seemingly do it against the grain of what most great pitchers look like and the other fits the prototype in literally EVERY respect, you keep the more known quality.  Not that you wouldn't love to have both, but if you're choosing between them, you go with what's more certain and Cain has the track record, mentality, and build to go with his tremendous stuff as a pitcher.  
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...

by Smoke on the Water on Nov 28, 2007 11:23 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Fantasy is right!  Anyone who wouldn't do that deal is clueless.

by Cainer on Nov 28, 2007 11:38 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Those Reds prospects
Jay Bruce rocked the house at the Futures Game this year.  I'm sold on him regardless of what the numbers say.  

Joey Votto was also on the team, and he could be the last impact player to develop out of that 2002 draft class.

Edwin Encarnation disappointed those with high expectations, but he's far from buried.

I'd trade Cain because I just like watching Timmeh better.

by achiappanza on Nov 28, 2007 11:46 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
If you were offered that trade you'd have to do it.    Can't decide which pitcher I'd keep - leaning Cain but have nothing concrete to back that up.

Luckily, no GM would actually offer that deal so we get to keep them both.  Which makes me happy.

by fwoty oz on Nov 28, 2007 11:53 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
If Sabean is that desparate to add a bat, can't he just buy one (Andruw or Fukudome)?  Why does he have to deal away when there are still a couple options out there?  Andruw or Fukudome + Lincecum + whoever else it would take > Miguel Cabrera.

by ResDog on Nov 28, 2007 11:57 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Flip a coin
Include either pitcher in the deal that will make the Giants better for a longer period of time.

by wilriv21 on Nov 28, 2007 1:06 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I know the trade makes sense, but how often does a franchise get two arms like that at the same?  We aren't going anywhere this year, so why not wait to buy a bat when the free agent market actually gets good in 2008?  Unless Minaya is willing to trade Wright, hold on to those guys.
The 2008 Giants: Think 2005 Rockies with a payroll twice as big and half as much talent.

by BCsteve on Nov 28, 2007 1:29 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Try to trade Cain + ? for EdE & Votto.

The Reds could have drafted Lincecum last year to pair with Homer Bailey (big mistake), so they can't trade their corner infield to get him a year later.

by dwc on Nov 28, 2007 1:57 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I'd choose Lincecum, just because Matt is my favorite player and Tim is only a close second. But you could really flip a coin...
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Nov 28, 2007 3:07 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Obviously, this is a trade that'd never happen... this thread is just a fancy ass way of saying "Cain or Lincecum?"
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Nov 28, 2007 3:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
which, if I'd read the original post more closely, I would know Grant basically said.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Nov 28, 2007 3:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I didn't read this very well as well.  I just talked about Brian Sabean.
Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 28, 2007 5:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Oh, well in that case--whichever one makes me an omelette first.  Aaaand... go!
"When Jackson Williams thinks of how many times Madison Bumgarner has tried to kill Tyler Walker..."

by multiphasic on Nov 28, 2007 3:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
If I'm GM, I keep whoever has the hotter mom.  
This is my signature, not yours.

by Goofus on Nov 28, 2007 3:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
(If you're reading this) No offense, Mrs. Taschner.
This is my signature, not yours.

by Goofus on Nov 28, 2007 3:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
You think Taschner's still on the roster thanks to his performance?
SJ Giants, 2007 Cal League champs! Couldn't have done it without the All-Father.

by EliminateMe on Nov 29, 2007 11:59 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

For those keeping track at home.
I still have no omelette.  It's a dead heat.
"When Jackson Williams thinks of how many times Madison Bumgarner has tried to kill Tyler Walker..."

by multiphasic on Nov 28, 2007 4:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Still no omelette.
Eff it.  Trade 'em both.  Ingrates.
"When Jackson Williams thinks of how many times Madison Bumgarner has tried to kill Tyler Walker..."

by multiphasic on Nov 29, 2007 7:58 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
If we are getting Homer Bailey for Zito in the deal, you definitely have to do the deal.  Unlike the Cabrera "deal", you get good hitters at 1B, 3B, and OF, which should be good enough to jump-start the offense.  Getting Bailey gives us an ace potential starter to replace the pitcher we gave up, plus dump Zito's contract.  

If no Bailey, just the three players, that's still too much of a haul not to risk losing the competitive advantage we had with Cain/Lincecum and hoping that one of our prospects develop as hoped and become another ace.  Our offense should be good sometime in 2008 or 2009 with the three of them in the lineup, plus Roberts and Winn, Molina and Frandsen.

As for who to trade, Cain, as nicely as he has done, struggled with the same no-brainer problem the last two seasons:  use your fastball more and your off-speed less, and you'll be more successful.  That speaks to the bigger problem, he doesn't have sufficient command over his secondary pitches to be successful, he needs his fastball, do or die.  Plus his PQS was low 50's each season.

Lincecum on the other hand, had his bad patch and truly dominated after that.  His PQS was like 67%, only the best are up that high.  So you have to keep him, you shoot for the ceiling plus he has an additional year.  Also, Cain is signed to a contract that is economical whereas Lincecum isn't, so probably the Reds would want him anyway.

Hopefully this decision is moot because nobody is going to offer such a huge bounty for either Cain or Lincecum.  I would rather see what happens with Cain and Lincecum than trade one of them.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 28, 2007 3:57 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I'm really surprised at how many people thought I was actually asking if the original deal was worth taking. Look, I don't even read my own posts, so I understand your dilemma, but let me try again:

If you could pick eight position players from around the league and pay them minimum salary, but you had to give up either Cain or Lincecum, which one would you give up?

"Geez, I'm not sure about that trade. Sure, you'd have A-Rod, David Wright, Joe Mauer, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Grady Sizemore, Matt Holliday, and Miguel Cabrera, but you'd give up a future ace. The more I think about it, the more I'm against it."

by Grant on Nov 28, 2007 4:16 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Rod/Wright/Mauer/Howard/Utley/Sizemore/Holliday/Cabrera but have to give up Lincecum or Cain???

Where's that Do Not Want graphic?  That's a terrible sacrifice!

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 28, 2007 4:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Who is Sophie and why does she have a choice?

by wilriv21 on Nov 28, 2007 5:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Read... posts...? I barely even skim the comments before I start poking fun at them.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Nov 28, 2007 6:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I'm just here for the Bea Arthur jokes.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Nov 28, 2007 7:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I'm just hear because I heard there was free beer.
This is my signature, not yours.

by Goofus on Nov 28, 2007 9:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Who's playing shortstop on that 8 man squad you listed? A-Rod? He can't handle that any more.....too bulky and at 3b he's only league average right now.

And where are you sticking fat-ass Cabrera with Howard and Wright manning the corners? In Left? My god....why not just stick a glove on a cow's teets and set her to pasture out there.

I don't like this one bit.

by hammystyle on Nov 29, 2007 9:44 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
The question to me is, would I rather be at the park when Lincecum strikes out 20 and loses 1-0 by giving up 1 HR, or would I rather be at the park when Cain throws a no no and loses 1-0 on a error by who ever is playing in right feild. (i don't know, maybe he kicks the ball a few times after dropping it and the runner score). Either scenario the Giants don't score any runs.
I guess I'll take the 20 strike outs.

by Zott on Nov 28, 2007 4:18 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Oh, can I try again?

I just talked about Sabean the first time.

I'm a little slow apparently.

Or maybe it's because I really don't see a huge difference between the two and so see no point in trying to choose between the two.  

But if I was forced to choose, then I think would trade away Cain.  I really really really like Lincecum.  I only really really like Cain.

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 28, 2007 5:19 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Tim Lincecum is my favorite player, but he's the one I'd trade. I just think Cain is more of a sure thing. He's proven more professionally at this point, which I'll admit is no fault of Lincecum's.

I suppose I could go either way, given that Lincecum has more time until free agency. But for now, I'm going with Cain.

by Dan from NM on Nov 28, 2007 7:49 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Cain is in no way a sure thing at all.  Funky arm action and no control over secondary pitches does not bode well for the future.  Lincecum is under our control for two more years than Cain, has better mechanics and has better control.

Frankly, though I love Matt, he's the much easier one to live without.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Nov 28, 2007 8:54 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
What funky arm action?
The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle on Nov 29, 2007 7:18 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No dignity in victory
Slo is referring to the arm action during that rare phenomenon from last season: A win for Cain, followed by his victory dance, The Funky Chicken.

by Moggeee on Nov 29, 2007 7:39 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
he does this weird thing with his shoulders that leaves his elbow in an odd position for a split second.  It allows him to throw with such awesome velocity, but it could be a point of concern a couple of years down the road.
Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Nov 29, 2007 5:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Based on that description alone it sounds a little like scapula loading, but I'd be very very surprised if Cain was a scapula loader.

Mostly because if he was one, he probably wouldn't have an arm anymore.

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Nov 30, 2007 1:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Scap loading is actually an integral part of pitching.  Cain has one of the absolute best scap loads like ever.  It wasn't exactly what I was talking about.  There is kind of a freaky little turn thing and a glove pull that puts a little undue stress on the shoulder and elbow.  

But yea, scapula loading is kind of important.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Nov 30, 2007 10:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
It was my understanding that scap loading was a mechanical fad that increased velocity but also ended careers... with the most high profile victim being Mark Prior. Do I have the wrong impression?
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Dec 1, 2007 1:08 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Actually, pretty much all pitchers have to do some kind of a scap pinch as that is part of the unfurling motion towards the plate.  Mark Prior actually stopped using the scap pinch which keeps the hands about even with the shoulders and kind of let his arm just hang back which put undue stress on the shoulders and especially the elbow and gave him a different arm slot and release point.  

The scap pinch also gives the added benefit of a more aggressive stride/turn towards the plate, adding momentum and more MPH to every pitch.

Cainer's biggest problem is actually an opening up that coincides with the glove pull.  But really, he would win awards for best mechanics if he was on any other team besides Timmy's.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Dec 2, 2007 3:24 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
lincecum may turn out to be the next oswalt or better and he's incredibly fun to watch, but if you have to decide between the two (and a package of prospects like that says you do) the choice is obviously to keep cain.  cain is as of now the more complete pitcher and has just as much upside.  i think its safe to say we would want either or both of these guys to be career giants, so the difference between 4 and 6 years of control really shouldnt matter all that much.

by sam23 on Nov 28, 2007 10:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
If we're in fantasy land & getting a deal like that then i wouldn't be bothered which one we gave up.

Given the choice, i'd give up Cain, as Lincecum has the higher upside & 2 more years of control.

But, as the different answers have proved, there's not a huge amount between them & i'm glad we've got them both.

by GiantFan on Nov 29, 2007 4:24 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Isn't this a no-brainer because it's 5 years of Linc  vs. 4 years of Cain?  (pre-free agency)

by zenbitz on Nov 29, 2007 9:22 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
Hey, I don't like to make entire Diaries dedicated to bullshit, but I thought I'd put the heads up out there on this in a comment at least.

Written by the same guy who wrote Bull Durham and Tin Cup, anyway... so at least we might get Kevin Costner as, ummm, Barry Bonds... or something....

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Nov 29, 2007 11:20 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I can see it now!
Kevin Costner as Brian Sabean!
Omar Epps as Barry Bonds!
Dane Cook as Jeff Kent!
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Nov 29, 2007 11:57 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I think they'll go with Will Smith as the "before" Barry and Ving Rhames as the "after".
This is my signature, not yours.

by Goofus on Nov 29, 2007 12:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ooh!
How about the guy who played Urkel, and then Michael Clark Duncan?
Brian Anderson: I can has spot in Fresno 'pen?

by Anticon23 on Nov 29, 2007 12:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ginger or MaryAnn?
Here is FoxSports Tracy Ringolsby take on the SF Giants pitchers:

    RHP Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum, San Francisco. Giants need a young impact bat and to get that they are going to have to give up one of their     promising young arms. Cain would require a deal of a lifetime. Lincecum is a bit more available, but it's going to take a big-time bat, not a         journeyman.

by wilriv21 on Nov 29, 2007 11:34 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Sophie's Choice
I thought the key to making the deal was being able to get rid of Barry Zito's contract.  :)

by sharksrog on Dec 5, 2007 2:27 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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