Open Giants black-abyss prospect possibilities diary

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Nov 23, 2007 5:07 PM PST

This is less complicated than the title.

Just for some commentary on our SS, C, 1B or any type of power hitting prospects we have.

I just want to know all of your opinions on guys like Adam Witter, Pablo Sandoval, John Bowker, D'Alessio and any other even marginal prospects that don't get a lot of play.

Pablo especially intrigues me. How far away do you think some of these kids are? What do you think we may expect from them, either next year or int he majors?

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Black abyss

I wonder if it's too bold to think D'alessio could be in San Jose in 2008.

I like the possibility of Chad Rothford becoming a power hitting 1B prospect but I know I'm alone in that.

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 23, 2007 6:09 PM PST reply actions

Re: Black abyss

I don't think it's too bold to think D'Alessio should have been in San Jose in 2007, at least by the end of the year. Whether he could have/can handle it is an open question, but I don't see much reason to be conservative in this case.

Fool me seven times, shame on you. Fool me eight or more times, shame on me.

by Bhaakon on Nov 23, 2007 10:12 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Black abyss

I'm thinking more of D'alessio in San Jose for longer than an injury fill-in or a promotion at the end of the season, and if that is too bold to expect from him.

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 24, 2007 1:09 AM PST up reply actions

Future Giants

John Bowker has scaled the mountain that is AA and succeeded so he is MLB LHH power potential. He should receive a September call-up if he plays well at AAA. Saw Pablo Sandoval in the Cal League Championship series and he has talent and enthusiam. Hope he excels at AA this season.

by wilriv21 on Nov 23, 2007 7:29 PM PST reply actions

Abyss

Witter- has plenty of power. Wonder if his ability of lack therof, to make consisent contact will be exposed at AA?

Whether D'Alessio plays in Augusta or San Jose, we should know fairly soon if he's for real or not. Because of his age, draft position and competition, he has one chance to prove himself at each level and probably needs to skip a level somewhere along the way.

It's still hard for me to imagine Pablo Sandoval making it to the big leagues at his weight,, but the kid is remarkably athletic for his girth. I saw him hit the longest HR I've ever seen from a minor leaguer this summer in San Bernardino off a pretty good pitcher, James McDonald.

If Bowker picks up where he left off in CT, he's a definite prospect.

There's another 2007 draftee who did not play this summer due to an injury of some sort, Mike Loberg. Comes from tiny Augustana College in Sioux Falls, SD(I think that's where Lyle Alzado came from) His college stats were awesome and he hit .325 with wood bats in the Northwoods League.

Matt Downs has been mentioned prominently in another thread. He's also older and will have to move up rapidly to remain a prospect.

I would rate the SS depth chart as: 1. Emmanuel Burriss. 2. Nick Noonan(if he stays at SS, which is doubtful). 3. Charlie Culberson. 4.. Sharlon Schoop(might surprise and turn out to be the best of the bunch). 5, Brian Bocock(I'm not as high on him as some. I don't get all the excitement for a .220 hitter).

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 23, 2007 9:02 PM PST reply actions

Re: Abyss

Is pablo that fat? I see him consistently listed at 5-11 180; I'm assuming this is wrong. What's his speed like in terms of Molinas?

What do you dislike about Witter? He seems like a pretty good OBP guy with great power. Does he have defensive problems or something?

As much as you dislike Bocock, I don't understand the fascination with Burriss. poopy swing, no power and he doesn't project to much in my eyes. I think he may have a Neifi-like offensive career. I like Culberson much much more from a projectability standpoint.

And, I agree, Noonan doesn't look like he's sticking at short.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Nov 23, 2007 9:40 PM PST up reply actions

Sandoval

Back in their 2005 prospect handbook, following Sandoval's AZL debut at age 17, BA wrote that he was probably 40 pounds heavier than his listed weight, and that his ability to control that was the most significant concern regarding his future prospect status.

by FavoriteSpring on Nov 24, 2007 12:27 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Abyss

I think Neifi-esque might be a best possible case scenario. Neifi actually has much more power. A .394 SLG in his minor league career, as opposed ot Burriss' nearly invisible .325 SLG.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Nov 24, 2007 6:31 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Abyss

Pablito might have weighed 180 lbs, oh, about the age of 14 or so. When I saw him last year, I would think 240 is a conservative estimate. That kid is FAT!!

He's athletic in terms of quickness, but he ain't a fast runner. Bengie Molina would be a good starting comp for that.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 24, 2007 7:10 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Abyss

Second that. I saw him at San Jose several games last year. Johnny Raab was 180. This guy is double-wide.

Twenty-seven years of waiting has come to an end.

by trapper9 on Nov 24, 2007 8:26 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Abyss

The weight is one reason he may not stay behind the plate. When I saw him in AZ last spring my first thought was that he had to be 26 years old.
Not because of the weight, he just looks older that 20.

by rellubcat on Nov 24, 2007 8:33 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Abyss

So we can grab his love handles and make a farting noise?

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 24, 2007 10:35 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Abyss

Witter? I like Witter's power and plate discipline. I'm just afraid a .260 BA in the Cal League translates to about .220 in the Eastern League, especially CT.

The one thing Burriss has that Neifi didn't is speed. Neifi never came close to Burriss' SB numbers even in the minors. Whether the speed makes all that much difference, I guess, is debatable, but I don't think you can ignore speed when making Burriss comps.

I love Culberson and think he could turn out to be one of the steals of the draft. I put him down on the depth chart more due to inexperience than ceiling. He and Schoop are the two sleepers who I think might eclipse Burriss. Culberson, in particular, could jump to the head of the list as early as next season.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 24, 2007 7:20 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Abyss

While you're right that his speed is way better then Neifi's, I'm not sure that's a good thing. We saw that in the AFL a big percent of his hits were infield ones, and I'm afraid that once he will face big league defense his numbers would drop significantly.

So while there's no doubt that a bad hitter with speed is better then one without speed, I think that his speed wouldn't help all that much in the Majors, and that a 300 BA in the Minors might turn into 250 in the majors ( I might be exaggerating but the point stands).

by Cookyman on Nov 24, 2007 8:22 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Abyss

What you saw in Arizona, Coockyman, is what my looking at Manny's stats told me was likely.

When a guy with Manny's speed hits for less than 1.2 bases per hit, he's not hitting the ball hard. His speed alone should allow him to average close to 1.2 bases per hit, just by stretching singles into doubles and doubles into triples.

Manny made a GREAT comeback in Arizona this fall, batting .452 after an 0-for-10 start. He walked six times while striking out only three times in 52 at bats. But once again he wound up averaging less than 1.2 bases per hit, this time coming in at 1.16 after averaging 1.17 in the 2007 regular minor league season and 1.19 in 2006.

Neifi Perez is a .246 career hitter outside Coors Field. Manny doesn't appear likely to me to be able to hit that well. Unfortunately you can't steal first base.

by sharksrog on Nov 24, 2007 9:51 AM PST up reply actions

Yes You Can

By beating out IF hits that would be outs for other players. Again, the impact of this is debatable, but it can be done.

Will some of those IF hits turn into outs at higher levels? Almost certainly, but they won't all turn into outs. If he can hit .320/.380 in the minors, that might turn into .280/.340 in the majors. Factor in 40-60 SB's and the fact he plays SS, and you have a decent leadoff man at a position that doesn't demand a ton of offense.

Might Charlie Culberson or Sharlon Schoop prove to be better options at some point? Yes, I think that's a strong possibility, but for now, I would say Burriss is our best bet to be the next starting SS for the Giants. Look around at what's available on the FA market in SS's. The fact we re-signed Omar for $5 M tells you all you need to know.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 24, 2007 10:04 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Yes You Can

I was most pleased that Manny improved his BB/K ratio from .58 in the regular season to 2.00 in the Fall League (albeit in a small sample).

Incidentally, I still think that Manny would have done OK had the Giants left him in San Jose -- assuming he didn't let his dauber get down. Manny batted an amazing .351 on ground balls in Augusta, just .065 on grounders at San Jose. Had he batted as high on grounders in San Jose as he did in Augusta, his .165 batting average would have grown to .295 (or within 26 points of his .321 batting average at Augusta.

If major leaguers throw out Manny even a quarter of the time that he now reaches successfully on grounders, his batting average will drop considerably. Add to that the line drives and bloopers that are more likely to be caught in the majors, and it may be that Manny just doesn't have enough pop to be successful.

I'm hoping he will be, of course, but I see some real roadblocks that could stand in the way. With Manny averaging less than 1.2 bases per hit despite all that speed, he's not hitting the ball with any pop at all.

by sharksrog on Nov 24, 2007 10:30 AM PST up reply actions

We Understand!

We didn't get it the first 999 times you made that point. Yes, his BA might drop at higher levels. If it drops from .320 to .280 and he steals 40-60 bases/yr, he will still be a decent offensive player for a SS. That's not to say somebody better might come along, but take a look around at what else is available out there.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 24, 2007 10:45 AM PST up reply actions

Re: We Understand!

The problem is I think it's much more likely to drop from .320 to .230, or more likely to drop from .320 to DNP.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Nov 24, 2007 2:52 PM PST up reply actions

Fair Enough....

We'll see how it turns out.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 24, 2007 5:12 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Fair Enough....

Yes, we will. But while it is natural for one to believe what he says, I suspect the two Rogers will have diagnosed a far better prognosis than the good Dr.

And both Roger and I hope to be wrong. So we win either way. Either we're right, or we're happy. :)

by sharksrog on Nov 25, 2007 1:59 PM PST up reply actions

Prognois

No, your prognosis is worse than mine. The question is which prognosis is accurate. I remain cautiously optmistic on Burriss for reasons I have stated about 999 times now.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 25, 2007 2:44 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Prognois

Well, if our prognosis is worse than yours, Dr., the patient is probably going to die. :)

by sharksrog on Nov 25, 2007 8:29 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Open Giants black-abyss prospect possibilities

Doc, you think Ochoa has 0 prospect value? I would've rather seen them play Ochoa (at $350 K) and not spend the money on Omar. I think they are about equal in the field and I think Ochoa will have a (slightly) better year than Omar with the bat. Then you could take the $5.1 mil and spend it on the bull pen.

by allfrank on Nov 23, 2007 9:40 PM PST reply actions

Ochoa

Two things to note about Ivan Ochoa: he didn't play at all after June due to a knee injury, I don't know how serious, and more importantly - he's a minor league free agent. In fact, unless I missed some signings, the entire Fresno infield are now free agents: McLain, Niekro, Leone, Santos, Figueroa, Ochoa, De La Rosa, Bergolla.

by FavoriteSpring on Nov 24, 2007 12:53 AM PST up reply actions

OCHOA

I don't trust anyone with a .637 OPS in MiLB. Was last year not a fluke? Is his defense that spectacular? But I like the idea of not blowing 5 mil on Omar's veteran-y goodness. It's too bad Sabes values invisible statistics. Can the kid play 1B and sell hot dogs between innings?

Southern California: Water thieves and Dodgers fans.

by jasomack on Nov 24, 2007 1:18 AM PST up reply actions

Olmo Rosario

Here's a name that probably won't amount to anything, but you never know. The Giants signed him as a FA in September from Nashua of the CanAm independent league. He's 27 yo as of August and was probably just dominating inferior competition, but he was the league's MVP with a .362/.406/.550 line. He also had 25 SB's with 11 CS and hit 12 HR's. He played SS for Nashua but was originally signed as a 3B by Tampa Bay in 2001. He's listed as a 3B on thebaseballcube.com.

I'm not sure I can see a place for him to play unless they are planning on throwing him to the wolves in CT right away.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 24, 2007 7:41 AM PST reply actions

Re: Olmo Rosario

Rosario and Steve Palazzolo both intrigue me. I like those pickups from nowhere.

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 24, 2007 10:38 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Olmo Rosario

You like picking up strange guys? What would your mother say?

The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Nov 26, 2007 6:45 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Open Giants black-abyss prospect possibilities

Are there any stats that say a guy will get fewer GB hits in the majors? Sure, there is the idea that defense in the majors is better. But there are also plenty of guys parked at 1b and 3b because they can hit and who are defensive liabilities. So, isn't it possible a Burris type, as he gains bat control and smarts willa ctually do better in the majors? I've never seen him bunt, but I saw a Giants game in Dodger stadium last year where Pierre and Furcal had consecutive bunt basehits - both achieved by bunting a soft line drive over the 3b head. VERY eff4ective, I thought, especially for a speedster, as it is many times more difficult to defense than a tradtional drag bunt.

by allfrank on Nov 24, 2007 3:03 PM PST reply actions

Re: Open Giants black-abyss prospect possibilities

I haven't seen any stats that say that a batter will get fewer hits on grounders at the major league level, but most players' BABIP's drop in the majors, often times by a whole lot. I would say that indicates most batters likely hit lower in the majors on ground balls, fly balls in play and line drives. And I have a sneaking suspicion the greatest percentage drop might be on grounders. That's just a guess though.

by sharksrog on Nov 25, 2007 2:01 PM PST up reply actions