Angels sign Torii Hunter

by rocketdog on Nov 22, 2007 4:51 PM PST Comment 33 comments

Happy Thanksgiving.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

Oh, damn. Thought I had a scoop. Nevermind.

by rocketdog on Nov 22, 2007 4:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

You're only a few hours behind the other one, don't feel bad about it. It's not as bad as the one last week where I started a thread about the North winning the Civil War.

SIGN ANDRUW JONES!!

by rxmeister on Nov 22, 2007 5:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

You know I respect your opinion, Mark, but why do you want the Giants to sign Andruw Jones? Andruw was once an impact player, but I think those days are behind him.

Andruw's career batting average on balls in play is .283. Last season it was still .272, which means most of his 40-point drop in batting average came from less contact than from bad luck. Andruw tied his full-season low with 26 homers and struck out 138 times, the third-most of his career. Andruw's strikeouts exceeded his homers by 112, only the second time in his career that had been the case.

Andruw was hitting the ball less often, and hitting it hard less often. Since his excellent 2005 season, Andruw has slid considerably downhill, with his homers declining by 25 and his strikeouts increasing by 26.

I believe signing Andruw Jones would be the everyday equivalent of signing Barry Zito.

by sharksrog on Nov 22, 2007 5:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

It's not like this guy is over the hill. I'm willing to say that this was just a fluke year, and a very unlucky one for Jones. Fortunately, though, this might provide him at a discount, with which I, too, wouldn't mind picking him up.

by cheno on Nov 22, 2007 6:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

hokay a couple of things wrong with this. Andruw Jones is 30 years old, in the prime of his career and has had one bad year. He has constantly improved his walk rate and has improved his power each year as well. Though his offensive season looked so bad, he was still worth 6.4 wins according to WARP3. He plays a premium defensive position very very well and still manages high OBP and excellent SLG each year. Will you take one subpar year out of 11 excellent ones as an indication of offensive prowess?

Also, hiring a guy after his worst offensive year is buying low in a good sense of the term. Jones will now sign for less money than he may be worth and I think he will regress towards his offensive mean.

Torii Hunter was the everyday equivalent of the Barry Zito signing. Hunter has always been overrated and has never performed as well as people think he does. That's the Zito signing.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Nov 22, 2007 7:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

Torii Hunter is being paid in line with what free agents are getting these days.

In the 2007 pool of players working on a free agent contract, each Win Share Above Bench (WSAB) ended up costing, on average, $1.68M. Torii Hunter was healthy the last two seasons and averaged 10 WSAB between the two seasons. By the 2007 numbers, the market values 10 WSAB as being worth an annual salary of $16.8M. At $18M per year, the Hunter contract is hardly outrageous. If you factor in Hunter's decline with the rising cost of players, you end up with a not so insane contract.

The contract seems outrageous because there are better players making much less money. Even if you don't consider cost-controlled players, there are a lot of guys out there who re-upped with the current team, in turn giving their team a discount. Oswalt re-signs for $73M for 5 years. Buerhrle re-signs for $56M for 4 years. Last year Santana asked for $90M over 5 years. As a consequence of all the hometown discounts, the players who actually make it to free agency appear to sign ridiculous contracts.

The truth of the matter is that fewer and fewer truly great players are making it to the open market. As a result, teams awash in money have nothing else to do but throw boatloads of money at few plus talents actually on the market. Who are the Angels supposed to sign, and for what money? 4 years $50M 'feels' reasonable for Hunter. The truth is that the Angels would have been outbid. They had little choice. Well, they could have waited, but I guess they were more comfortable setting the market rather than reacting to it. Either way, this contract isn't out of line with the other ones out there.

by Nathan on Nov 22, 2007 7:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

Averaging two seasons of WSAB is not enough. Take into account at least the last 4 years and his WSAB average is 7, worth about 13 mil per year. Now, frankly, I like BPro's WARP3 measurements better and by that measure wins are worth around 2 mil. If you take him from 2001 on, he's worth about 5.9 wins above a replacement captain. So about 12 mil per would be around what he should be paid per market standards!

18 million is ridiculous with his expected decline. Do you think Hunter is going to be worth 18 million or even 10 million during his age 36 and 37 seasons?

No way. Torii got way overpayed. Also, considering the Angels' situation, it makes it an even dumber move.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Nov 22, 2007 9:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

A) I'd love to see some examples where a free agent is paid based on his track record over a four year period. Memories are short, demand is high and people pay, in large part, for what they saw the year before. It works both ways. Think Andruw is going to get a deal like Hunter's? His 4-year WSAB is higher and he's two year younger. No. People are worried about his 2007 drop off.

B) He'll decline. But free agent prices will continue to rise.

C) Who the hell knows if Torii will be worth $18M three years from now? I don't. My best guess is a 'no'.

D) It is a dumb move given the Angels' situation. But I also have to respect that they're not going to let last year's mistake (GMJ) dictate what they do this year.

E) Players worth building a franchise around almost never hit free agency. Pujols will make less money than Hunter. Oswalt will make less money than Zito. Mark Buerhle will make less money than Chan Ho Park made as wateroby for Texas. With revenue sharing monies and teams awash in revenue, premium talent gets locked up well before free agency. Hell, Santana might even re-sign with the Twins. He's asking for Zito-esque money. The Indians expect to re-sign Sabathia.

** There's all this money pouring in and only second-tier talent available on the free agent market. Sure the Angels could sit on the money and we can whine about how they're a bunch of misers. They want to build, at least partially, through free agency and the reality is that they have to pony up the dough to avoid getting outbid by teams that are similarly rolling in green. The market appears insane because demand way, way, way outpaces supply.

I'm not saying its a good deal. I'm saying its in line with all the retarded deals out there.

by Nathan on Nov 22, 2007 10:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

ehhh i guess you win.

still, this is why I want to sign andruw.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Nov 23, 2007 12:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Even using WARP

wins are no longer worth $2M. Inflation has taken care of that.

Inflation in MLB is around 10%-11% annually. According to research by MGL, unless the player falls of the cliff, his decline is usually "balanced" by inflation.

by rfloh on Nov 22, 2007 11:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

I agree, i'm not saying that we should definitely sign Andruw Jones, but of the players on the free agent market, who are all going to be overpaid, he's the one that i'd go after.

Signing players based largely on the previous season is bad management & leads to lots of overpaid (and underpaid players) Hunter is a good example of a player who's had a great year, and is being paid more than his worth, whereas Jones has had a bad year & is going to get less than he's worth. Buy low, sell high is the key!

by GiantFan on Nov 23, 2007 5:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You are aware that Andruw played

most of 2007 with a painful elbow injury that made simply straightening his elbow a pain right?

Judging Andruw based on 2007 would be similar to judging Carlos Beltran based on 2005.

by rfloh on Nov 22, 2007 10:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

He's 30 years old, not 40. He had one bad year, I think it was a fluke, maybe trying too hard in a walk year. He's speed, defense, and something this team has nothing of, which is power. I'm not saying give him ARod money, but he's certainly worth around what Torii Hunter is getting.

SIGN ANDRUW JONES!!

by rxmeister on Nov 22, 2007 7:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

andruw jones - not a speedster.

but i agree with the rest.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Nov 22, 2007 7:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

ok, I'll give you that. Fast enough to be a great centerfielder though.

SIGN ANDRUW JONES!!

by rxmeister on Nov 22, 2007 7:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

What? No hijack?

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Nov 22, 2007 9:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

I was busy eating food for Thanksgiving. Someone come up with something.

Steve Kline: How okay is he, really? I would say he is pretty okay.

by groug on Nov 22, 2007 10:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

<fart>

Screw the Giants, but not Omar. I'm getting drunk and watching some footy.

by PacBellBoozer on Nov 23, 2007 5:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

Maybe someone could hijack another diary by talking about Torii Hunter.

Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Nov 23, 2007 1:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

Fun Fact: Torii Hunter's contract is bigger than the one Vlad signed with the Angels after '03.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Nov 23, 2007 2:15 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

Whenever someone asks me why I had a problem with the Giants pursuing him before he signed, I can cite this fact and it should make perfect sense.

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 23, 2007 6:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

Don't forget that Vlad had the back issue which frightened lots of teams away. That was the reason his price was lower. I haven't heard anyone say that Hunter is a better player than Vlad.

SIGN ANDRUW JONES!!

by rxmeister on Nov 23, 2007 6:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

An interesting comparison of two players' career numbers offensively:

Seasonal average for Player A:

Age: 32, AVG: 0.271, OBP: 0.324, SLG: 0.469, OPS: 0.793, OPS+: 104, RC/G: 5.0, BtWins: 1.4, SB: 17, CS: 8, HR: 25

Seasonal average for Player B:

Age: 33, AVG: 0.286, OBP: 0.345, SLG: 0.424, OPS: 0.769, OPS+: 102, RC/G: 5.2, BtWins: 1.3, SB: 21, CS: 10, HR: 12

The stats are remarkably similar, with Player A having more HR's and being a bit better.

Player A is Torii Hunter who makes $18M a year for 5 years, whereas Player B is Randy Winn who makes $9M a year for 2, and was considered overpaid & a bad contract.

by GiantFan on Nov 23, 2007 6:41 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

An interesting comparison of 2 players

Player A plays CF.

Player B plays RF.

by rfloh on Nov 23, 2007 7:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: An interesting comparison of 2 players

Winn may not be a great defensive CF, and obviously not as good as Hunter, but i find it hard to believe that the difference is enough to justify paying him twice as much.

by GiantFan on Nov 23, 2007 7:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Can Winn even play CF

regularly?

Also, in the current market Winn isn't overpaid. A good comparison for Winn is Eric Byrnes.

by rfloh on Nov 23, 2007 7:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Can Winn even play CF

I think Winn usually get ranked as a little bit below average in center field. His bat can carry that, on the right team. But of course he's not getting any younger.

by Evan on Nov 23, 2007 8:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm aware of his UZR's

but I'm also aware of the fact that the last team he was a regular starter in CF was 2004. I'm aware of the fact that the Mariners chose to move him away from CF.

by rfloh on Nov 23, 2007 1:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: An interesting comparison of 2 players

The "twice as much" thing is misleading, because the salary scale doesn't work linearly. You have to pony up quite a bit of money (at least on the free agent market) for relatively small improvements.

I agree with your conclusion, though. Winn at $9mil beats Hunter at $18. Plus the Angels are trading away their first round draft pick in the deal.

by Evan on Nov 23, 2007 8:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

A year ago before the Twins picked up Torii Hunter's option, I mentioned that I wasn't in favor of signing him if he became a free agent because he wasn't all that different from Randy Winn, whom the Giants already had.

Torii clearly is the better of the two, but as you point out, the differences aren't great.

The good news would appear to be that Randy should be tradable now. I would love to see the Giants trade him for a prospect. I think his no-trade clause is down to just 10 teams now -- or perhaps it's all the teams except 10. But at least it's not the full no-trade clause he had previously. And this winter he's coming off a much better season than he was a year ago.

by sharksrog on Nov 23, 2007 10:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

HR's

That difference in HR's and SLG% is pretty significant. Still, I'd rather have Randy Winn at his salary than Torii Hunter at his. I would think Hunter's contract would make Winn eminently tradeable, and for a good return.

As for the position question: Hunter is a a better CF than Winn, but Winn does play the position with some regularity and does a good job.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 23, 2007 10:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: HR's

If the Giants could trade Randy for some young corner infield power or a good, young catcher, I think they would come out ahead. Outfield is actually their strongest everyday position,even without Barry Bonds.

by sharksrog on Nov 23, 2007 12:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Angels sign Torii Hunter

I agree that signing Andruw Jones would be pretty much the Zito move again. They both play in one of the few positions the Giants actually have some depth at, both are on the declining parts of their careers, but they've still got that name recognition factor that the Giants brass seems to think is more important to their fans than anything else, and both are in free-agent markets in which there are very few other players whose names are as large.

by ololo3 on Nov 23, 2007 2:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs