Madison Bumgarner
I found a nice little video of Madison Bumgarner pitching for his HS team.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAko0PpgYK8
Notice his extremely low, almost sidearm delivery. It does look like a natural, easy motion though, and the ball seems to explode out of his hand. The pitches look kind of dart like with lots of movement and variable movements. I guess the rap is that it can be difficult to develop secondary pitches out of that arm slot, especially breaking balls with downward movement.
I still think we should have drafted Beau Mills at #10, but I find myself getting more and more excited in anticipation of Bumgarner's coming out party in the spring. I wonder if we will seem both him and Timmy Alderson in the Augusta boxscores? I can hardly wait.
Just a reminder of Bumgarner's HS stats from 2007: 12-2, 0.99, 85 IP, 27 BB, 120 K.
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53 comments
Comments
Re: Madison Bumgarner
by KCE on Nov 22, 2007 10:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Madison Bumgarner
by sharksrog on Nov 22, 2007 10:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Glass Half Full?
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 22, 2007 11:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Glass Half Full?
by rxmeister on Nov 22, 2007 12:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Glass Half Full?
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 22, 2007 1:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Glass Half Full?
It's kind of like with your kids. You hope the best for them, but you also realize their limitations and risks. That doesn't mean you don't love them. It merely means that while you may be a glass-half-full kind of guy, you can still be a realist.
I DO like the strokes of both Wendell Fairley and Nick Noonan, so hopefully I'll be right about them and wrong about Mad Bum.
I do like the fluidity with which Mad Bum throws. I merely wish he would use his whole body more, taking some of the strain off his pitching arm.
by sharksrog on Nov 22, 2007 5:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
MadBum
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 22, 2007 8:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: MadBum
by Lyle on Nov 23, 2007 5:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: MadBum
Shark has given his reasons for thinking MadBum is going to get hurt. What are your reasons for thinking he won't make it other than the normal attrition rate?
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 23, 2007 7:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: MadBum
by rxmeister on Nov 23, 2007 8:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: MadBum
Maybe I'm quibbling about where he was selected in the draft. If he'd been our 3rd or 4th pick, I think I'd feel better about taking a shot on him. But to use the #10 pick on him just seems like too much of a gamble (yes, it's all a crapshoot, I know). I'd have felt better if we drafted Michael Main at #10 (expensive, but not Porcello-like). He was a HS righty (better track record) with a better arsenal of pitches.
We needed a better draft than we got. Alderson and Noonan look pretty good. Maybe Fairley turns out to be as good as Jason Heyward (another better choice at #10). Maybe Jackson Williams becomes Kirt Manwaring II. Maybe Charlie Culberson makes it to AA. But there were 3B out there we needed to take some chances on. Bumgarner just wasn't, to me, the kind of gamble we needed to take last June.
by Lyle on Nov 23, 2007 5:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: MadBum
Having said all that, I think Madison Bumgarner is going to be good and I'm rooting for him to succeed.
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 23, 2007 8:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: MadBum
by rxmeister on Nov 24, 2007 6:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: MadBum
by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Nov 24, 2007 1:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Arm Thrower?
Here's a link to a video of Randy Johnson pitching:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=28DhWy6obUK
There are others on the Youtube, especially one of him warming up in the bullpen. RJ has a slightly longer stride than Bumgarner, but otherwise, if I didn't know better, I would say MadBum was trying to copy RJ. Now, RJ has had a nice long career, wouldn't you say?
You might also want to check out Carlos Gomez' breaddown of Bumgarner's delivery:
http://hardballtimes.com/article/breaking-down-the-draft-1st-round-picks-1-10
Make sure you scroll down and read his comparison/contrast with Phillipe Aumont, who many say is a mirror image of Bumgarner's delivery.
Interestingly enough, Gomez, who knows a whole lot more about pitching mechanics than I, is much more critical of Alderson's delivery:
http://hardballtimes.com/article/breaking-down-the-draft-1st-round-picks-21-30
One thing I like about Gomez is that he comments on both the strengths and weaknesses of a delivery and emphasized on building on what they do well rather than picking out a flaw and jumping to the conclusions about a future arm injury. In spite of his crticisms of Alderson, he stil really likes him as a pitcher.
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 23, 2007 8:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Arm Thrower?
I know more about the statistical side than the scouting side, so perhaps I should go with that. Right now I'm hoping they both can be what their statistical side indicates, while fearing that their motions could ultimately prevent that.
Certainly we all would be quite happy if Mad Bum were representative of Randy Johnson much at all. Randy has had a ton of arm problems, but has risen above them to have one of the top 20 pitching careers of all time.
I really don't know WHAT to make of Mad Bum and Timmy Two other than to hope for the best and fear the worst -- and to use this as a small test for scouting compared to statistical analysis. I believe the best way to go is to combine both, but I am surprised by how different my viewpoint is depending on which I use.
I'm certainly not a great scout, so probably the statistical side is better -- and that side is wowed by the pair. Great combinations of dominance and control. Clearly each has great size.
Regardless of how these guys turn out, I will learn something by having analyzed them before knowing how their careers will turn out. I guess it is possible both sides might turn out to be right, with both pitchers being dominant when healthy but suffering a high number of injuries. Hey, both sides could also be wrong.
In a best-case scenario, the pair turn out to be the next generation's version of a righty and lefty Randy Johnson. I would like that very much. Worrying about how to keep Lincecum, Cain and two good imitations of Randy Johnson would be the type of POSITIVE problem I'd love to see the Giants have.
I do like both Fairley and Noonan mechanically, and both Mad Bum and Timmy Two were drafted well AHEAD of that pair. So let's hope that Wendell and Nick turn out well and that Madison and Tim turn out to be even BETTER.
by sharksrog on Nov 23, 2007 9:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Stats vs Scouting
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 23, 2007 9:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stats vs Scouting
One point you should probably make as well but perhaps haven't because it has been oft-discussed here in another context is that the Giants have done far better drafting and developing pitchers than position players.
And most of all I'm hoping that somehow Brian magically became a better drafter of players the past two years and that the trend will continue, along with improved development. There are signs this could indeed be the case.
One thing that has naturally helped Brian in this regard has been having better drafting position. Fortunately/unfortunately that is likely to continue for another two or three years IMO. I'm hoping Brian hits a grand slam with the #5 overall pick in 2008.
by sharksrog on Nov 23, 2007 10:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Others
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 23, 2007 10:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Arm Thrower?
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 23, 2007 9:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Arm Thrower?
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/breaking-down-the-drafts-1st-round-picks-1-10/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/breaking-down-the-drafts-1st-round-picks-21-30/
by trapper9 on Nov 24, 2007 8:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Arm Thrower?
In fact, it was his judgement along with the absolutely wonderful stats both pitchers posted that has me cautiously optimistic about Mad Bum and Timmy Two.
I just don't know what to expect from the pair. But naturally I'm hoping I'll be pleased with their progress.
I would feel more confident had they signed Rick Porcello, but it is also possible both Giants picks will turn out and Rick will turn out to be a poor fellow.
by sharksrog on Nov 23, 2007 9:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Porcello
Would I rather have Rick Porcello than either Bumgarner or Alderson? Yes I would, but a small margin.
I would much rather have both Bumgarner and Alderson than just Porcello. Those two cost just a bit more than half what it would have cost to sign Porcello.
Now, we can debate drafting/signing strategy until the cows come home, but it's simply not realistic to think the Giants would have spent that kind of money on Porcello and then also drafted the other high ceiling players they did. Those 6 first and supplemental round picks? It would have been one of Porcello and 5 of Jackson Williams'
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 23, 2007 10:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Porcello
You are correct that the Giants weren't likely to spend the big bucks on Porcello and still spend significant money on each of the other picks. Heck, you're probably right that the Giants weren't going to spend the big bucks on Porcello regardless of what else they did.
But my point is that should Rick go on to become a big star, the $7 million the Tigers guaranteed him could wind up being only one or two percent of what Rick makes during his entire career. I would much rather the Giants have spent the extra $5 million or so on Porcello than have signed Dave Roberts for over three times that amount.
And, yes, I realize that really isn't a fair comparison, since the money had already been spent on Davey.
But my point is that while the Giants appear to be getting back on track, they are so far behind right now with upper-level prospects that they should be focusing even more heavily on drafting and developing prospects.
Your point, by the way, that having BOTH Mad Bum and Timmy Two rather than Porcello is likely a good thing. It is certainly a reduction of risk (although Porcello's mechanics appear to me to greatly diminish his injury risk).
It's easy for me to talk about how the Giants should be spending their money, since it doesn't come out of MY pocket (except very indirectly).
But why did Brian spend money on Neifi Perez when it was obvious the guy could hit only in Coors Field, on Jose Vizcaino when it was obvious the guy could no longer get on base and on Dave Roberts when the Giants already had a center fielder in Randy Winn and two more possibilities on the way in Freddie Lewis and Clay Timpner?
And with the obvious problem this off-season being where to spend all the available money productively, why wasn't more budgeted to take full advantage of the Giants' great draft situation this past June?
It is as if the Giants are guilty of being overly reactive when they should instead be becoming highly proactive.
It is as if the Giants were mesmerized by the brilliance that was Barry Bonds and were oblivious to how their foundation was crumbling and the fixtures were falling down around Barry.
Oh, and were they so enamored with the name Barry that they had to overspend on Zito? It was obvious when they signed Barry that he wasn't likely to be more than their #3 starter for very long.
Don't the Giants see ANYTHING? I know they have more knowledge on this stuff than we do, but it is almost as if we as a group here could make better decisions than they seem to be making.
Again, the signings of the past two years have been impressive (based on the little we know about them). Hopefully this is a clear indication that the Giants have turned the corner, that it's no longer business as usual.
But, really, how could they have allowed the house to crumble this badly without experiencing an earthquake?
by sharksrog on Nov 23, 2007 10:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey! We Agree!
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 23, 2007 10:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Hey! We Agree!
by rxmeister on Nov 24, 2007 6:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Hey! We Agree!
After the 2002 World Series Theo Epstein said that the Boston Red Sox were going to rebuild their prospect scouting and development. Several players drafted in the ensuing five years played important roles in the Red Sox World Championship last month.
Meanwhile the Giants allowed Jeff Kent, Billy Mueller, Reggie Sanders, Kenny Lofton, Russ Ortiz and Livan Hernandez to leave that winter, and then began forfeiting draft picks a winter or two later.
Brian Sabean had a top-quarter budget, yet he made very poor choices on how to spend that money. Because he had done such a fabulous job at the major-league level during his first half dozen years on the job, the Giants remained competitive for a couple of seasons. But once Barry Bonds was injured and no longer super human in the batters' box, the Giants became a below-average team.
Clearly the Giants had built their competitiveness too heavily on the enlarging shoulders of Bonds.
Five years later, the Red Sox have a farm system that has made a considerable contribution to their latest World Championship, while the Giants have the worst hitting in the majors. The Red Sox have developed continuity; the Giants have developed a massive hole.
by sharksrog on Nov 24, 2007 9:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Porcello
by Lyle on Nov 23, 2007 5:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Porcello
by sharksrog on Nov 23, 2007 6:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Porcello
by Lyle on Nov 25, 2007 4:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Porcello
by hometownboy on Nov 24, 2007 3:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Porcello
When Alex Rodriguez was drafted, do you think many expected him to make the amount of money he will make if he remains healthy and productive for another decade?
by sharksrog on Nov 24, 2007 9:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Porcello
Because you're stupid!
Stupid!
Stupid!
Stupid!
Stupid!
by zenbitz on Nov 24, 2007 12:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Madison Bumgarner
by Cainer on Nov 22, 2007 10:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Madison Bumgarner
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 22, 2007 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Madison Bumgarner
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 22, 2007 3:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Madison Bumgarner
By the way, how fast is Alderson's fastball? I remember reading that he could reach 93-94, but if that's true then how come he was taken so low?
by Cookyman on Nov 22, 2007 3:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Madison Bumgarner
The thing that has me really excited is the thought that we have both of them! You are right that it's not easy to find a HS pitcher with Alderson's kind of velocity, control and breaking stuff, but it's not easy to find a HS lefty with Bumgarners velocity and obvious upside either.
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 22, 2007 3:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Madison Bumgarner
But you are absolutely right about having both of them. I mean, a couple of years from now, when Lincecum signs with the Yankees (how could we sign him when we have our money invested in Zito?) and Sebean trades Cain for four (!) mediocre players, Timmy 2 and MadBum could replace them in the rotation. Now that's what I call optimism!
by Cookyman on Nov 22, 2007 4:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Madison Bumgarner
I think I might actually be more excited about the prospect of seeing minor lines from guys like Bumgarner, Alderson, Fairley, Noonan, Villalona, and Culberson than I am about seeing most of the major league club. lolz.
by jponry on Nov 22, 2007 11:56 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Madison Bumgarner
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 22, 2007 11:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Madison Bumgarner
by senorvegas on Nov 22, 2007 4:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Madison Bumgarner
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 23, 2007 10:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Madison Bumgarner
That all said, one relatively minor point: I don't think I've ever seen a left-hander who throws at this velocity who finishes square to the plate as well as Bumgarner. I bet he fields his position very well.
by BruteSentiment on Nov 24, 2007 3:28 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Educate Me
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 24, 2007 7:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Educate Me
by Cookyman on Nov 24, 2007 8:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Educate Me
by howtheyscored on Nov 24, 2007 4:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Educate Me
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 24, 2007 4:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Educate Me
by Evan on Nov 24, 2007 8:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Educate Me
A good slider is effective because of its downward movement, which requires a certain amount of downward arm movement.
RJ's angle is okay because of his height. While the angle is similar, his arm naturally has more downward movement than a shorter man because of the length of his limbs; his longer arm moves more downward more in total than a shorter arm, and his longer stride also leads to more downward momentum in the body.
Sanchez in particular has more problems because he lets his arm slot drop while pitching, flattening out his pitches.
In fair disclosure, it's not that Bumgarner can't have a slider, but a slider is a more difficult pitch to maintain because of the tendency to drop the arm slot; all similar pitchers have had this, including RJ when he's been off. But I think it's unlikely a MadBum slider will ever be effective, both because of that RJ height difference and MadBum's much shorter and less exaggerated stride.
by BruteSentiment on Nov 25, 2007 1:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Educate Me
I'll have to get out my Physics of Baseball book and see if they address this. Where is chadbradfordwannabe when you need him? Did I read that he landed a paying gig with a MLB club?
by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 26, 2007 4:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Madison Bumgarner
by Dan from NM on Nov 24, 2007 10:26 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

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