AFL Top 20 Prospects

by southcitysteve on Nov 16, 2007 10:38 AM PST

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/265219.html

Aoooheyneo is the only Giant at #15. I'm really surprised Nate isn't on the list. He's younger than Velez and had a much better AFL season imo.

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Re: AFL Top 20 Prospects

Brignac? Really? Are they basing this off the performances in the AFL? He was pretty dismal and I'm not the only one who thought so. He wasn't much of a hitter and looked bad on defense.

Pretty disappointing, too. I went in there excited to see Brignac play and he just wasn't up to my expectations. He did have nine hits in his last six games but still finished with a .177 batting average.

I like BA and all but sometimes...I really have to wonder.

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 16, 2007 10:37 AM PST reply actions

Re: AFL Top 20 Prospects

I'm guessing whoever made this list paid little attention to AFL performance. Then again Velez probably wouldn't be on the list if not for his AFL performance.

Conclusion: confusion

Thank God that's over.

by southcitysteve on Nov 16, 2007 10:51 AM PST up reply actions

Re: AFL Top 20 Prospects

Exactly. I'm one of Velez's biggest cheerleaders, as you all know. I can't tell what their criteria is for selection on this list. It's just a crapload of confusion.

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 16, 2007 11:49 AM PST up reply actions

Re: AFL Top 20 Prospects

And Cameron Maybin played in nine games. Cameron Maybin is outstanding and I like Cameron Maybin. But he played nine games. That Nate S isn't on this list and that Sam Fuld is nowhere to be found I'm just...my head exploded a little bit.

PS Matt LaPorta really is that good and I'm no longer scratching my head about the Brewers drafting him seventh overall in June.

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 16, 2007 10:43 AM PST reply actions

Re: AFL Top 20 Prospects

I wonder, if he had fallen to the Giants, would they have taken him? I was sorely disappointed when I saw that Milwaukee drafted him because he was the guy I wanted the Giants to draft at 10. But considering they didn't take Beau Mills (probably because of his defense), I think they might have passed on LaPorta as well for the same reason, even though LaPorta is a better hitter now and is likely to be a better hitter in the future.

Okay, so ends my somewhat pointless ramble.

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 16, 2007 10:47 AM PST up reply actions

Re: AFL Top 20 Prospects

How's LaPorta looking in the outfield? I can't figure out what the Brewers' plan is ... they just keep accumulating players who can't really play their positions. And when they get one who can, like Bill Hall, they move him somewhere else.

by Evan on Nov 16, 2007 11:54 AM PST up reply actions

Re: AFL Top 20 Prospects

He looked serviceable, which is all I ask for from a hitter of his ability.

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 16, 2007 12:28 PM PST up reply actions

Re: AFL Top 20 Prospects

It may be that with Nate having had over 100 major league at bats they felt he had graduated from the prospect category and thus didn't consider him. Otherwise I would have thought his performance would have placed him in the upper half of the list, quite possibly the upper quartile.

by sharksrog on Nov 16, 2007 4:00 PM PST up reply actions

BA

BA has always tended to overvalue speed. I'm glad they like Velez, but to rank him as a better prospect than Nate is, IMO, just ridiculous. In fact, I would rank Nate, Burriss and possibly Romo, Anderson and Nick Pereira ahead of Velez.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 16, 2007 10:55 AM PST reply actions

Re: BA

If BA had made a list before the AFL season started it would probably be pretty much the same list you see now. It's probably more based on what they perceive as the best players in the league rather than what actually happened during the AFL season.

BRING ME ANDRUW JONES!!!

by rxmeister on Nov 16, 2007 11:03 AM PST up reply actions

Agreed, But....

I certainly wouldn't have rated Velez ahead of Nate even before the AFL started.

Velez is an intriguing player who might turn into something, primarily because of what appears to be plus-plus speed. He is awfully small, has no real position to play as of now and has limited power. I'd consider him a fringy prospect with a small possibility of becoming a starting MLB player.

At this point, Nate appears to have at least an even chance of being a starting OF for the Giants next season.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 16, 2007 11:21 AM PST up reply actions

Re: BA

Not that I have much of a problem with that. A month of AFL games shouldn't have much effect on your opinion of a prospect one way or another.

Fool me seven times, shame on you. Fool me eight or more times, shame on me.

by Bhaakon on Nov 16, 2007 12:47 PM PST up reply actions

Re: BA

I think your right. And they should be ashamed. They charge way too much money to simply rehash what they've already said or what they're going to write in the Prospect Handbook.

"But I AM a stepchild!"-Pedro Feliz

by Smotheredinhugs on Nov 16, 2007 1:47 PM PST up reply actions

Re: BA

Zealously advocating for Nate the Great since 2007.

by orangeandblackattack on Nov 16, 2007 11:25 AM PST up reply actions

Re: BA

You said Eugenio has "limited power," but he somehow managed to hit 14 homers and drive in 90 runs in 2006 in A ball. He certainly showed no power in 2007 though. Looking at him you would think he has no power, but he's supposed to be around 6 foot 1, so I can see him gaining some weight and hitting for more power as he gets older.

BRING ME ANDRUW JONES!!!

by rxmeister on Nov 16, 2007 11:35 AM PST up reply actions

Re: BA

Eugenio has shown no power except for 2006. And his power that season came when he was very old for the league in which he played.

What I'm HOPING -- but not expecting -- is that the power was real and that his inability to repeat it in 2007 stemmed from his injury suffered in spring training.

If Eugenio could begin to hit for a little power, he would have a chance. Otherwise, I see him primarily as a pinch runner deluxe.

by sharksrog on Nov 16, 2007 4:03 PM PST up reply actions

Re: BA

Shark,

Here's a quote from today's BA report on Eugenio Velez: "More than a slap and dash speedster, Velez has a line drive stroke that produces gap power."

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 16, 2007 5:35 PM PST up reply actions

Re: BA

That's good to hear.

Including the fall league, this year Eugenio had two homers in 481 at bats. He did managed 13 triples and 22 doubles.

With Connecticut, where he spent most of the year, he hit only 51 line drives out of 304 balls in play (16.8%) and just 20 of his 83 fly balls resulted in hits. I would say his line drive stroke wasn't producing much power there. He averaged only 1.34 bases per hit.

Eugenio did improve considerably in the fall league, averaging 1.52 bases per hit.

But in order to hit .297 in the minors last season, Eugenio needed a .358 average on balls in play. He isn't likely to approach that figure in the majors.

The guy who was really awful this fall though was Antoan Richardson. Antoan has needed a .370 BABIP just to hit .252.

I don't expect Antoan to make it at all, and I think Eugenio may be limited to a cup of jumping beans.

Burriss I think at least has a chance -- with this upcoming season a very important one for him. Manny's biggest advantage over the other two is that he doesn't strike out too much for a spray hitter.

by sharksrog on Nov 16, 2007 10:53 PM PST up reply actions

Re: AFL Top 20 Prospects

I don't really understand why they ignore Nate so much. He's only hit under 300 once. He's cut his raw K rate from 25% to about 14%. He has tons of untapped raw power and even still he hits plenty of dingers and oodles of doubles. He's got a plus arm and his D isn't bad. He's still only 23.

So he doesn't draw a lot of walks. I think we might have gotten to the point where walks are overvalued.

Zealously advocating for Nate the Great since 2007.

by orangeandblackattack on Nov 16, 2007 11:31 AM PST reply actions

Re: AFL Top 20 Prospects

It's especially puzzling since scouts don't seem to pay much attention to walks anyway. I mean, Velez's k/w rate is just as bad as Schierholtz's. Maybe they see some problem with his swing. Or maybe it's the speed thing, as DrB said.

Ah, who cares. He was one of the best hitters in the PCL, he was one of the best hitters in the AFL, he can play his position, he's 23 ... I'm just glad he's on our side.

by Evan on Nov 16, 2007 11:52 AM PST up reply actions

Re: AFL Top 20 Prospects

I was thinking this AFL would finally put Nate on the radar to people other than us nerds here. I might have to switch from a Manny Burriss/Eugenio Velez ticket to a Nate campaign.

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 16, 2007 12:29 PM PST up reply actions

Re: AFL Top 20 Prospects

I don't think we have gotten to the point where walks are overvalued. Something like two-thirds of the time a walk is a good as a single -- and it is mostly singles that Nate hits.

I think Nate is already good enough to hit in the major leagues. But in order to become an above-average hitter for his position, I think he needs to change his approach, becoming patient enough to wait for more pitches he can drive.

by sharksrog on Nov 16, 2007 4:05 PM PST up reply actions

Re: AFL Top 20 Prospects

Wow...just, wow.

Reid Brignac so high?

Eugenio anywhere higher than Nate?

He's even brushed by the one Schierholtz question in the chat (so far) without even mentioning him.

At least I can't make any jokes about age bias in this one.

SFDugout.com - Returning Offseason 2007

by BruteSentiment on Nov 16, 2007 11:32 AM PST reply actions

Re: AFL Top 20 Prospects

BA definitely made this list not based off of AFL performance, but basically just listing who they thought are overall the best prospects who played in the league this fall.

Sabean stop giving away our first round draft picks!!

by z4 landshark @ McCovey Chronicles on Nov 16, 2007 12:51 PM PST reply actions

Re: AFL Top 20 Prospects

But I don't get how anyone could think Eugenio Velez is a better prospect (regardless of AFL performance) than Nate Schierholtz. I mean... it just seems to me like Nate is better in nearly every way other than speed.

Oh well, I hope he tears shit up next year and makes them look dumb.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Nov 16, 2007 4:06 PM PST up reply actions

John Bowker

John Bowker could eclipse all SF Giants prospects this season. Do not sell the former Dirtbag short.

by wilriv21 on Nov 16, 2007 4:31 PM PST up reply actions

Re: John Bowker

I would be pretty shocked if John eclipsed Angel Villalona, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson or Wendell Fairley. And I'm not sure that would be a good thing, either. It would depend on how it happened.

by sharksrog on Nov 16, 2007 5:25 PM PST up reply actions

Re: John Bowker

We need a diary on drafted players and the chance of them ever playing ML baseball. One that dissects the chances of a first rounder making The Show vs a second rounder, 10th rounder etc. There are a lot of statheads on McC and they can tell you about OPS, Zips, Vorp, CIA, IRA etc but never mention the stat chance of a player making the MLs. AA is the Holy Grail of MiLB. If a player can make it there he actually goes from prospect to possibly having a real chance at a ML career. Yes, many stall at AAAA but many go on to have a successful career. Bowker has accepted his mission and thrived. I am not holding my breath until I see a Big V, Nooner, Culberson infield with Fairley manning the OF while Bum starts the game and Alderson comes in for a save in The City. At least until they are successful at AA.

by wilriv21 on Nov 16, 2007 6:03 PM PST up reply actions

Dreams

I have a dream that one day Madison Bumgarner walks off the field after pitching a complete game 1-0 shutout of the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 16, 2007 9:53 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Dreams

That is a beautiful dream.

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 16, 2007 10:18 PM PST up reply actions

I'll take a win over LA any day

but how many walks, Dr B? :-) I love a two hour pitching duel. Maybe we can scratch out a run in the bottom of the 8th or 9th for the win.

by wilriv21 on Nov 16, 2007 10:26 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Dreams

That's funny, my dream has Madison Bumgarner walking off the field after pitching a complete game 11-0 shutout of the Dodgers in which Kershaw gets shelled for seven runs in the third and is jeered off the field.

Also, Matt Kemp and Chin-lung Hu each hit home runs in that game. Wearing Giants uniforms, of course.

by Evan on Nov 17, 2007 12:14 PM PST up reply actions

Re: John Bowker

It's not comprehensive, but there is this.

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Nov 16, 2007 10:30 PM PST up reply actions

Thanks

While not the break down that I was hoping for this provided great insight and I appreciate the link. College 1b drafted in the 1st round have rated out of having a 1 in 3 chance of a HOF caliber career - quite interesting.

by wilriv21 on Nov 16, 2007 10:47 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Thanks

Wil -- in addition to that series of Baseball Prospectus articles (which is great, if you're a suscriber), this is a good piece in which the author breaks players down into four groups (great, good, useful, and marginal), then calculates the percentage chance that each draft slot will produce a player in one of those groups.

Obsessivegiantscompulsive has done some research on this too, but I can't find it on a quick search of his site. Martin, are you out there?

by Evan on Nov 17, 2007 12:10 PM PST up reply actions