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Around SBN: Holy War Week Brings out the Worst in Fans

How about a Frandsen thread?

by JRPhillips on Nov 12, 2007 10:30 AM PST Comment 61 comments

I'm too lazy to look up the kind of information the majority of you seem to have access to, so I thought I'd post this question and see what happens.

Does anyone know what Frandsen projects to look like over the course of his career? Does he have the possibility of being a .300 hitter? It sounds like it, from his minor league numbers (I think, I've not looked that up either). What about power numbers? Are they projected to go up? Since he's only 25, can we assume he'd become a pretty valuable part of this franchise?

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Didn't You Know?

It doesn't matter if Frandsen can hit .300 in his sleep. He can't draw a walk to save his life and he has no power. He's a bum and will never be a MLB regular.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 12, 2007 10:43 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Didn't You Know?

Let's please not anybody fall into the sarchasm here.

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Nov 12, 2007 10:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

Long timers here will recall me being on the receiving end of numerous flamings for daring to suggest that Kevbo could be a productive regular starting second baseman in MLB. It's pretty hard to resist.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 12, 2007 11:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sorry

Oh no, I saw exactly what you were doing. I could just see where it might be missed by some (my initial reaction was even "Dang, that's harsh on Franny," and then I figured it out).

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Nov 12, 2007 11:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Sorry

"Kevbo"?

Please, enlighten me as to where that nickname got started...if only because I was called that in middle school and never figured it out.

SFDugout.com - Returning Offseason 2007

by BruteSentiment on Nov 12, 2007 11:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Kevbo

I don't know. It's just one of many Kevin nicknames I and some others over on the Giants Message Board use from time to time. Others include The Kev, The Kevin, The Kevster, Frannie....he just seems to need a nickname like that.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 12, 2007 12:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Frannie or Franny works

This kid is a ML 2b with all the necessary intangibles. Put him in the 2-hole for the next ten years. Reminds me of Robby Thompson with a little less power. You need a bunt, Ask Franny. You want to hit-and-run, Ask Franny. Need to hit behind the runner, Ask Franny. Looking to start a rally, Ask Franny to take one for the team.

by wilriv21 on Nov 12, 2007 12:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Didn't You Know?

I oppose to this secret trade to the Duggers!

Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?

by shikantaza on Nov 12, 2007 11:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Didn't You Know?

he'll lead the majors in not being Ray Durham

Bonds stands alone.

by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 12, 2007 5:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

I think he'll be alright. Better than Durham, anyways...

by boonitez on Nov 12, 2007 11:19 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

I'm guessing he'll project to look something like this:

by ResDog on Nov 12, 2007 11:22 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

I'm just waiting for him to come alive

by xanthan on Nov 12, 2007 11:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

I stole this idea for my fantasy team name.

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 12, 2007 4:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

I'm guessing he hits 300/360/420 next year with about 10 dingers. Give or take.

Zealously advocating for Nate the Great since 2007.

by orangeandblackattack on Nov 12, 2007 11:25 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Optimistic?

I might project that for his peak performance, but for his first full season, assuming he is a fulltime starter? Maybe a bit optimistic.

Man, I remember getting flamed a year or two ago for projecting something slightly less than that for his peak. Now I'm the one warning against irrational exuberance here.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 12, 2007 11:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

In the Giants park

tbat's a pretty good line for a 2b.

League average OPS in the phone booth was 785 in 2006, 778 in 2007.

With that above average OBP, if Frandsen puts up that line, he would be an above average hitter. This is before taking into account his position.

by rfloh on Nov 12, 2007 1:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

I'd probably drop 10-15 points off each of those numbers...and still be pretty pleased with the results.

See Barack Obama at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium Nov. 14th! Visit https://donate.barackobama.com/sanfran for details.

by Goofus on Nov 12, 2007 1:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

I'd agree with that. I can see a .280/.340/.420 line out of him if he plays regularly.

Not to go all cliche here, but really at this point I think I can say that Frandsen will have a major league career and whether it's good enough to maintain a starting position or not will depend entirely on how he adjusts once pitchers get a book on how to attack him. I think he's smart enough to understand that and likely will do what it takes to keep himself in the picture. I do think he has the tools to be a .300/.370/450 guy with 10-15 HRs and maybe more as he gets his own book on league pitchers.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Nov 12, 2007 3:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

370 OBP! Wow, I'd be extra pleased with that.

See Barack Obama at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium Nov. 14th! Visit https://donate.barackobama.com/sanfran for details.

by Goofus on Nov 12, 2007 4:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Exuberant?

Wow! That's getting pretty exuberant there, Roger. I'll stop just short of saying it's irrationally exuberant, because I think it's possible. I would say that is probably his absolute ceiling, though.

I do agree that he is ultimately going to have more power than most folks give him credit for adn will also eventually have good to excellent plate discipline. He already has a remarkable ability to put solid wood on the ball.

I just hope Sabean wants him as a starter this year and finds a way to make it impossible for Bochy to play Durham ahead of him.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 12, 2007 4:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Exuberant?

Well really, I think anybody's who's not a straight slap hitter can become a double digit HR hitter simply through being a good student of the game, getting a book on pitchers and looking for certain pitches from certain pitchers in certain situations and hitting them hard when they get them (how's that for a run-on sentence). Particularly with the hard bats, small stadiums in the east and a smart approach 15 HR isn't that tough a few years down the line. I think he's proved he can turn on an inside fastball when he's looking for one. Of course, all that's dependent on hitting well enough to stay in the lineup for afew years. That's the big question.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Nov 12, 2007 6:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Fan Club?

Does anybody know who that little girl is who sits way up in the LF bleachers with the orange Kevin Frandsen Fan Club sign who Kruk and Kuip get a kick out of because she bursts into tears or gets a big scowl and jumps up and down stamping her feet every time he makes an out?

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 12, 2007 11:36 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Fan Club?

I don't know who she is, but I'm guessing the name "Frandsen" hangs somewhere on her family tree.

My son (Kevin Correia) is an honors student at Righetti Prep

by VidaWantsYourCar on Nov 12, 2007 11:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Fan Club?

Her first name is Molly. Don't know her last name.

I remember hearing that during a broadcast, since my wife is Molly too. Otherwise I'd have no business knowing or caring what her name is.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 13, 2007 8:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

Frandsen's shown an ability to hit for a good average at every level, after an adjustment period...and it seemed that his adjustment at the majors may have been his slumping summer (which was followed by a white-hot September).

We shall see, the majors are a different beast.

I expect him to bat around the .300 area, and probably be able to keep his nose above it.

His power is another issue. He can poke one out here and there, but he won't regularly hit double-digit home runs in a season. But he does have doubles power (He led the PCL in that category before his promotion to the bigs), and will hit those frequently enough. He also has enough speed to leg out some triples, so he'll get plenty of extra bases. But he's no slugger.

I think he'll have a good career. Probably not a hall of fame career, but a good one. Once they start starting him, at least.

SFDugout.com - Returning Offseason 2007

by BruteSentiment on Nov 12, 2007 11:39 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

Being as he's still young enough, if he's hitting doubles now, is there a chance he can start giving double-digit homers regularly? I'm not expecting Bondsian numbers, or even Kentsian numbers... Maybe Raysian numbers? (Power-wise, not 2007 avg wise)

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 12, 2007 12:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

IMO, he doesn't have the batspeed to improve that much, but I could be wrong.

SFDugout.com - Returning Offseason 2007

by BruteSentiment on Nov 12, 2007 5:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

Funny, you sorta just described Craig Biggio.

Frandsen has always reminded me of Biggio...if not for similar talent, they have comparable body-types and both play the game hard.

I'd kick more tires if I weren't so hamstrung.

by Woody Wins on Nov 12, 2007 1:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

Probably not a Hall of Fame career for Kevin? I think you're being safe with that one. :)

by sharksrog on Nov 12, 2007 4:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

On a more serious note, I just hope he gets the chance to start.

by xanthan on Nov 12, 2007 11:45 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

whatever happens, you can be sure that he will be scrappy technology 100%.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Nov 12, 2007 11:49 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

You know, I always get a kick out of fights over prospect projections. Kevin Frandsen is going to do what he is going to do no matter what any of us project. I'm not going to crush his confidence if I project him to hit into a double or triple play every time up with runners on and to hit a screaming liner into the dugout or stands, injuring teammate or fan, when there are no runners on. And I'm not going to empower him if I project him to hit 100 homers a year. We have pretty much no influence over what actually happens.

So it's all about ourselves when we get into tiffs because of our projections. ;)

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 12, 2007 12:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Quit emboldening the enemy's pitchers, dude.

"When Jackson Williams thinks of how many times Madison Bumgarner has tried to kill Tyler Walker..."

by multiphasic on Nov 12, 2007 12:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Quit emboldening the enemy's pitchers, dude.

He didn't lay out a timetable.

See Barack Obama at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium Nov. 14th! Visit https://donate.barackobama.com/sanfran for details.

by Goofus on Nov 12, 2007 12:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

Well, yeah...

Isn't there some Murphy-esque postulate about the viciousness of an argument being inversely proportional to the importance of what's at stake? That would apply to most internet flame wars, which matter not at all and get nasty at the drop of a ^.

SJ Giants, 2007 Cal League champs! Couldn't have done it without the All-Father.

by EliminateMe on Nov 12, 2007 12:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

So the answer is no... You don't have any information on Frandsen projections. =)

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 12, 2007 12:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

That would be correct, sir!

Though I think he'll be okay. And maybe even pretty good. So put me in the same boat as just about everyone else.

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 12, 2007 2:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

Speaking of double plays, last season Kevin grounded into double plays more frequently than did A.J. Pierzynski in 2004 when A.J. tied for 32nd on the all-time list of single season double plays grounded into. Kevin grounded into "only" 17 double plays, but in far fewer at bats.

by sharksrog on Nov 12, 2007 5:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup. He's a Bum

Never going to make it.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 12, 2007 5:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

Kevin Frandsen: "He's pretty OK"

by zenbitz on Nov 12, 2007 12:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

I think you misspelled "Eugenio Velez"

Steve Kline: How okay is he, really? I would say he is pretty okay.

by groug on Nov 12, 2007 12:56 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

I could create a new thread on Velez, if you like? =)

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 12, 2007 1:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok

Tell us how he got injured, what his favorite color is and how he plans to replace both Durham and Franny.

by wilriv21 on Nov 12, 2007 1:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Ok

I believe he is planning on constructing robots to replace those two. Either that or an intracately complicated pully system with a glove and bat attached to it.

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 12, 2007 2:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Ok

I believe he intends to best them in a swordfight, decapitate them, and consume their energies, THUS gaining their experience and whatever else happened in Highlander.

This would probably be a better quote if I'd actually watched all of Highlander or learned the lore of that show/movie series.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Nov 12, 2007 4:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Ok

No, no. I'm pretty sure that's all there is to it.

Highlander FTW!

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Nov 12, 2007 5:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Ok

No no, he does not posess the ability of robotics. That's Timmy, remember?

I'm guessing he was sent back to the Dominican to smuggle in some good young DR players for the Giants when he returns. I'm not sure how he'll hide them, unless he wears a really big coat...

Democracy is lovely but baseball is more mature. BVCE supports Manny Burriss and SF Dugout.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 12, 2007 4:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Ok

If they're as skinny as he is, the coat wouldn't even have to be all that big.

SJ Giants, 2007 Cal League champs! Couldn't have done it without the All-Father.

by EliminateMe on Nov 12, 2007 5:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Ok

Boy, just imagine the speed and defense!

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 12, 2007 10:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Ok

Dang it. I was sort of looking forward to his pully contraption.

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Nov 12, 2007 10:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

OK, My Official Prediction

OK. Assuming The Kev lands a fulltime starter gig at 2B and plays the full year there(a very dubious assumption given the current GM and manager), here's my prognostication: Not counting sacrifice hits- too complicated.

650 PA's, 600 AB(50 BB's + HBP's), 174 Hits, 40 doubles, 4 Triples, 8 HR's, 24 SB's, 12 CS(it would be better for him not to try too many steals). .290/.343/.410.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 12, 2007 2:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

For what it is worth, ZIPS does not think much of Kevin (.271 avg .322 obp .367 slg). Kevin to me is very much a wait and see proposition.

by giantsrainman on Nov 12, 2007 3:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Way Low

That's way low, assuming he lands a starting gig(again, a dubious assumption).

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 12, 2007 3:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Way Low

How can you say the ZiPS projection is way low, Dr.? It is merely a projection. We understand you think he will have an OPS about 100 points higher, but who is to say that yours isn't too high? Personally I'm pretty close to the middle of your projection and the ZiPS projection at an OPS of .725.

I might be too low -- or I might be too high.

by sharksrog on Nov 12, 2007 9:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Opinion

The reason I can say the ZIPS projections are way low is because I think they are way low. That's based on carefully following The Kev's career up to this point for whatever that's worth. Does that answer your question?

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 12, 2007 10:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Opinion

Your first part of the answer obviously didn't quite answer the question (I feel they are way too low because I feel they are way too low.), but your second part did.

May I ask precisely what you have learned from closely following Kevin's career that leads you to believe he will basically outhit his ZiPS projection by 100 points of OPS?

By the way, I thought your projection for Kevin was higher than it actually was. But that was the projection of another. I don't think your .290/.343/.420 projection is out of line. My projection is a little lower than yours, but not by so much that I would mean to make a big deal of it.

The one area on which I would disagree with you, however, is your 24 steals in 36 attempts. While Kevin did indeed attempt 36 steals in 2005 -- two-thirds of them coming in Class A -- he was successful only 21 times. And the past two seasons combined he has pilfered only 15 bags in 25 attempts.

But coming back to your original question, I respect that you have followed Kevin's career closely. I merely would like you to share if you don't mind some of the specifics you have learned that might help the rest of us properly evaluate Kevin. Thanks.

by sharksrog on Nov 13, 2007 2:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Opinion

I'm sure you have followed kevin's minor league career at least as closely as I. Do you think the Zips is an accurate forecast of what you would expect from him if he becomes the starter at 2B?

As easily as Kevin has been able to hit well above .300 in all kinds of situations, I would expect a BA closer to .300 than .271. The .287 he hit in CT might be a close approximation. He can beat the .367 SLG% on doubles power alone and I think he is starting to show the ability to hit an occasional HR. So, that's why I think the Zips is way low. If they are assuming he stays in a utilty role, they might be right,though.

As for the steals, I think Dave Roberts has been working with him, so I think he may try to steal more, with a bit more success. Unfortunately, you have to have both extraordinary speed and savvy to successfully steal bases in the majors, so Kevin would still probably be better off using his speed to take the extra base when the opportunity arises rather than trying to steal.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 13, 2007 4:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

The ZiPS projection had Kevin at 387 at bats, with six steals in 11 attempts.

Kevin's goal for the past year has been to get pitches he can drive. By month (with April and May combined, since he had only one at bat in April), here are his pitches per plate appearance and OPS:

Apr/May 3.27 .590

June 3.46 .762

July 3.66 .520

August 3.42 .636

September 3.93 .906

Unless it is coincidence, Kevin seemed to accomplish his goal in September, taking more than double his highest leap in pitches seen per plate appearance of any month and posting an impressive .906 OPS after having had OPS between .520 and .762 seeing fewer pitches.

If it is coincidence, the projections here are likely too high by quite a few OPS points. If he truly accomplished the goal he set out to accomplish, he could actually beat our projections.

My best guess would be that the ZiPS projections will be in the ballpark. Kevin hit EXTREMELY well in September. But hit .388 BABIP that month likely tells us that he was hitting over his head. For the full season Kevin's BABIP was .281, which is a bit on the low side. It appears he might get his average up to .285 though.

One of the best things Kevin did was get his walk rate up, allowing him to reach base more frequently. His isolated patience was 62 points, which would put him up close to a .350 OBP if he hit .285. He also got his bases per hit up to nearly 1.4, which would give him a SLG of about .400. That number would increase to about .430 if he average 1.5 bases per hit as many here have projected.

I would perhaps set Kevin's median OPS projection at about .725. That is in between the ZiPS projection for Kevin and many of the projections made here.

And, again, if he can continue on as he did in September, he can make mincemeat out of all our projections. Let's hope he does so.

by sharksrog on Nov 12, 2007 5:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Selectivity

I mean in your selection of stats to post. You neglected to include playing time. Those stats make it look like September is the big outlier. In fact, it was the first month where Kevin got a semblance of regular playing time. Kevin has always needed a few games in row to get it going, but once he does, he has always been able to keep it going for a long time. Here are his # of AB's/month through the season:

April- 1
May- 45
June- 46
July- 31
August- 59
September- 73.

Kevin's numbers in September are a lot closer to what he did in the minors than the first 5 months, due, mainly I believe, to regular playing time.

Will he hit like that for a full season? Probably not, but if he gets regular playing time(again, a big if given the management of the team) I believe he will come a lot closer to his September performance than that of the first 5 months.

by DrBGiantsfan on Nov 12, 2007 10:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Selectivity

Good point about the playing time, Dr. I don't truly know how much of a difference playing time makes, but I can't imagine that irregular playing time would help. In Kevin's case last season, almost without exception, the more major league playing time he had in a month the better he hit.

You mentioned that you thought Kevin would perform much closer to his September numbers than to his April through August stats, but in actuality your predicted .763 OPS for Kevin is virtually at the midpoint between his .617 over the first five months of the season and his .906 figure in September.

by sharksrog on Nov 13, 2007 3:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How about a Frandsen thread?

Yes, Highlander!

by joeytothelimit on Nov 12, 2007 4:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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