First!
When I sit down to do my nightly Giants roster mock reconstruction - with a set of Topps, some multi-colored push-pins, a roll of twine, and an 8' x 40' piece of canvas - it's easy for me to get hung up with first base. The Giants need power. First basemen are supposed to have lots of power. It's supposed to be easy to find a first baseman with power. But it's been about ten years since the Giants had a power-hitting first baseman, and that was for just one fluky season (Snow in '97).
There's always the free talent route - going after six-year minor-league free agents or cheap one-year guys like Ryan Klesko - but the pickings are slim. The remains of Brad Wilkerson's career, maybe. Some dodgy bloke who is more likely to be the next Kevin Barker than the next Carlos Pena.
It's unlikely, though, that you'll find the kind of power the Giants need through the bargain bin. When you dumpster dive, you have to expect something like what the Giants got from Ryan Klesko. He didn't kill the team. He wasn't really worth keeping around. That's usually how free talent works. Finding a lineup cornerstone like Carlos Pena was a fluke. Even the staunchest of Pena partisans couldn't have predicted his .600 slugging percentage*.
So if the Giants can't count on free talent, maybe they can pay. The problem is that there isn't anyone to pay. Sean Casey? Olmedo Saenz? Shea Hillenbrand? Yick.
The name that keeps popping in my head: Richie Sexson. Sexson's only slugged under .500 once, and that was last year. He's 33, which isn't completely over the hill. He could bounce back. It ain't my money, it'd only be a one-year trial, and it isn't as if his salary would stop the Giants from signing anyone they really need. I keep thinking there's a way to ship Ray Durham over for Sexson, maybe with the Mariners kicking some dough back our way. Nah, I think. That isn't something Seattle fans would want.
Well, it isn't just me. Part of the U.S.S. Mariner recommended offseason plan is sending Sexson to the Giants for Durham. They'd even give up some mock cash. Mock cash can buy some sweet mock things.
How about it? I'm in. I think I just need to fax some paperwork over to U.S.S. Mariner, and it's a done deal. I'll be right back.
* New rule: You’re only allowed to brag if you brought up Carlos Pena without mentioning Hee Seop Choi in the same paragraph. I fail, especially since I would have preferred Sean Casey to both. Yikes.
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Re: First!
by Mark carry on on Nov 1, 2007 2:06 PM PDT reply actions
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by Stuttering John Tamargo on Nov 1, 2007 2:07 PM PDT reply actions
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http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&hl=225873&id=3702
Unfortunately, the Giants don't have the 3 elite prospects to get him. Fun to think about though.
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I would trade Sexson for Durham in a heartbeat. . .I'd even throw some $$ in the pot, please? please?
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Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
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http://www.baycityball.com/2007/10/24/first/
I'm suing you for 1 billion dollars.
I'll pick the jury for either side, for free.
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by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 1, 2007 2:35 PM PDT reply actions
Crap
Speaking of, Choi's back in Korea, playing in the KBO. He signed with the KIA Tigers in June, IIRC.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 1, 2007 2:36 PM PDT reply actions
He can put it i the drink
Plust doesn't it sound like a name that could lead to the next Cha-cha bowl?
He Sop Choy with pan fried noodles sounds worth $9.50 to me.
by CEO of the William VanLandingham FanClub on Nov 1, 2007 2:44 PM PDT reply actions
Re: He can put it i the drink
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Nov 1, 2007 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Those are yaka soba noodles.
Re: Those are yaka soba noodles.
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Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
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by Mark carry on on Nov 1, 2007 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions
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by Smoke on the Water on Nov 1, 2007 3:39 PM PDT reply actions
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And there's the winner. Perfect logic IMHO, and I would do the trade for no other reason than that.
$2M for Sexson (with Rays $7.5, the M's $4.5). How bad could he be ? 2B is freed up for Frandsen and Ehhuuhanio.
Geez...
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by MarkO on Nov 1, 2007 5:02 PM PDT reply actions
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id make the trade even without the cash...change of
scenery might help both
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Also interesting is how much of Durham's terrible year was influenced by his terrible BABIP. USS Mariner seems to be suggesting that his 2007 was pretty much just a result of bad luck. I know all of us who watched him last year agree that Durham's done but maybe that judgment's being clouded by just a few memorably bad ABs (like the 3-1 popout with the bases loaded against the A's). If that's the case then maybe it is worth it to give Durham a chance next year. At the very least, I don't think he should be moved unless the other team is picking up most of his salary like in the proposed Sexson trade.
by Mike Benjamin Hit King on Nov 1, 2007 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions
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And Durham's too short for first, in my opinion.
by Grant Brisbee on Nov 1, 2007 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions
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by giantsrainman on Nov 1, 2007 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions
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by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Nov 2, 2007 6:17 AM PDT up reply actions
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http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=garvest01
by giantsrainman on Nov 2, 2007 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
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by PacBellBoozer on Nov 2, 2007 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions
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by giantsrainman on Nov 2, 2007 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions
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by PacBellBoozer on Nov 5, 2007 10:10 PM PST up reply actions
Sexson had a pretty terrible BABIP
Both on them hit much fewer line drives in 2007, Durham: 13.4%, previous 3 years he was around 17-20%. Sexson: 14.9%, previously 14-19%.
Sexson's HR / flyball rate has been declining for the past 4 years. From a ridiculous 32.7% to 16.8% in 2007.
Durham's HR / flyball rate also seclinded to a scarily low 7.3%.
Basically, while BABIP did play a role in both their poor years, there were other factors.
A declining line drive rate combined with a declining HR / flyball rate could simply mean that they're no longer hitting the ball hard.
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by sanfranman on Nov 1, 2007 5:45 PM PDT reply actions
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More entertaining vocally than Zito..."Cleveland Rocks!"
I remember Sexson with the Jewelvertebrae...he'd check his swing and pull a muscle...but yeah on the Durham swap. Like THAT would actually happen.
by victor frankenstein on Nov 1, 2007 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions
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by Moderation on Nov 1, 2007 6:44 PM PDT reply actions
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1.) Lowry and Roberts for Hall (3B).
2.) Durham for Sexson (1B).
3.) Sanchez for C. Gomez (CF).
4.) Winn for Lillibridge (SS).
5.) Avoid free agents and invest in amateur talent.
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Regarding Richie Sexson, he actually improved over 2006 in several areas. He cut his strikeout rate from once every 3.8 at bats to once every 4.3 AB's. He increased his walk rate from a walk every 9.2 at bats to one every 8.1 trips. His homers fell off only from one every 17.4 at bats to one every 20.7 AB's.
But Richie's batting average plummeted from .264 to .205 because his BABIP sky dived from .303 to just .216. If Richie can approach his career .297 BABIP next season, he might even be the comeback player of the year.
I wish we had a Seattle fan who could tell us if Richie's BABIP fell more from hitting the ball weakly or from bad luck. That he cut his strikeout rate and saw his home run rate decline but not plummet tells me it could easily be more from the latter.
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Anything for Durham would be very nice, and I actually think Sexson could be good again. He's a great fielding 1B and has a great career OBP.
*Also I was very pleased to see Carney Lansford signed as hitting coach. Awesome choice.
by cain1rstballothof on Nov 1, 2007 9:24 PM PDT reply actions
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Looking at the NL, only 5 starters had over 30 HR in the season, out of 16 teams. Only 3 more had 21-24 HR. The average 1B had a .797 OPS (that was the league OPS that was compared to Conor Jackson in Baseball-Reference.com for 2007) and had a median HR total of around 19-20 HR.
Dan Ortmeier had an .814 OPS (107 OPS+), albeit in small sampling. The good news is that he had two separate stints with the team and hit basically the same both times, in terms of OPS, suggesting that his talent was the same both times.
The better news is that his SLG of .497 is better than the .447 that is the league OPS in Conor Jackson profile, meaning he has better power than the average 1B. He could have a big drop and still be about average.
Also, his AB/HR rate is 26 AB/HR, which is approximately a 20-25 HR pace, which is right in there with the average 1B in the league and even if his rate dropped a bit, he would still be average. And he hit at a 25 AB/HR pace his good year in AA in 2005.
And while he was coming up, most prospect analysts were saying that he had 20-20 potential as a corner OF starter, so it is not like it is crazy talk to say that he finally figured things out and can meet those expectations finally. And some prospects take longer to develop, that's where the A's have been good at catching those players who blossom relatively late in their careers, like Geronimo Berroa, Matt Stairs, and their latest find, Jack Cust.
The thing I find that some Giants fans have failed to recognize is that a team does not have to have a good hitter at every position in order to win games. Particularly now that we have a potentially superb, dominating rotation backed by a strong bullpen.
Power at 1B! Power at 1B! The sky is falling. You don't need to have an elite power hitter at 1B to make the World Series. The Rockies had Todd Helton, who had all of 17 homers playing the whole season, and they made it to the World Series. On the flip side, Boston had Youkilis, who had 16 homers himself.
I see this every year. RF stinks. 1B stinks. 3B stinks. And yes, they do stink compared to the elite players, but are they at least above average?
Especially with a good pitching rotation, we only need an average, consistent offense to win a lot of games and be in contention for the division title. So stop looking for a good hitter at every position under the sun, just look for average and above hitters across the board, and our team should win easily.
The main problem is finding these average players without paying an arm and a leg for them. But I think Ortmeier, Frandsen, Lewis, and Schierholtz look promising as far as being average players. With some possible upside, which is all we need to make some nice leaps in scoring.
To anyone crowing about Carlos Pena and saying "I told you so", please explain to me what you would have done at 1B from 2002-2006, when Pena was just a slightly above average 1B who didn't play very much or hit for very much.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 1, 2007 10:46 PM PDT reply actions
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You keep bringing up Ortmeier's ML SLG as if it means more than the rest of his minor league career. He has a .433 career minor league SLG, which includes a .430 in Fresno this year, a .389 in Fresno last year, and a .353 in Connecticut last year. He had six homers, four triples, and seven doubles in 157 MLB at-bats. The triples rate is obviously unsustainable, and the homer rate is higher than it was at any stop in the minors.
Unless Ortmeier learned how to hit for power at age 26 in the majors, he will never be a below-average first baseman. Because if the power drops down to his career minor league SLG of .433 -- even if you assume that his minor league slugging doesn't suffer at all from the jump to the majors, which is a crazy assumption -- there's no way his .300 OBP would be acceptable.
by Grant Brisbee on Nov 2, 2007 12:16 AM PDT up reply actions
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This team currently has good hitters at two positions: catcher, and center field if Winn is there. Two. Out of eight. And that's if you define "good" to mean "average."
I suppose it's true that some fans are guilty of not appreciating the virtues of players who aren't superstars. But I don't see the point in trying to deny what's obvious: this franchise is in a bad way.
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We haven't had a league average 1B since JT Snow turned into Tedd Williams in 2004. First base has been league average or better 1 time between 2001-2007. To say that it's been above average is plain wrong.
I also agree with Grant in that I don't buy into Ort's major league SLG in such a small sample. It goes against everything he's done in the minors. I'll trust 2217 minor league AB's more than I will 191 major league AB's.
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by howtheyscored on Nov 2, 2007 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
It's Carlos Pena's fault that teams
You yourself acknowledge that he was just slightly above average. That's better than Sean Casey. That's better than Dan Johnson. That's better than ThorMan and the crap that the Braves were putting out at 1b until they traded for Teixeira. That's better than Ryan Klesko this year. From 2002-2006, Carlos Pena was a league average offensively for a 1b / dh, and cheap.
In fact, Carlos Pena pre 2007, was little different from Kevin Youkilis.
Just because Carlos Pena didn't live up to expectations doesn't mean that he was a bad player.
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Based on last season, Randy Winn might qualify, along with Bengie Molina. The other regulars were woefully deficient, making the Giants offense one of the worst in the game despite the presence of the player with the second-highest OPS in the game.
This year the Giants offense will transition from long gone Barry Bonds to now-gone Barry -- and it's not likely to be a pretty sight.
Did you see those ZiPS projections for the Giants? They were just AWFUL. Even worse than last season's actuals, which are hard to look at as well.
Nate Silver of BP says the Giants have the biggest problems of any major league team. We look to some of the young hitters for improvement, but Bill James ranks the Giants young hitters as the very worst of any team in the majors.
The Giants should be a very good team -- in three to five years, assuming Brian continues to draft well.
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Ray did cut his strikeouts from 17 in August to just three in September, but he increased his batting average for the month only from a microscopic .123 in August to .178 in September.
Ray's average fell from .292 to .218, but his BABIP fell "only" from .292 to .238. Ray's career BABIP is .308, but can he bounce back to anything near that?
His increasing strikeout rate makes the degree of his bounceback somewhat problematic. Where one could make the argument that Richie Sexson's falloff was due more to poor luck than to poor contact, in Ray's case it appears to be the opposite.
I like Ray's character a lot though, so perhaps he will indeed find a way back. If I were the Giants though, I would give Kevin Frandsen his shot. Kevin could be the Giants' future second baseman. Beyond next season, Ray Durham almost certainly is not.
If Seattle would pick up a little salary, I like the idea of trading Ray for Richie. Richie is younger and just might have something left. And while the Giants have a possible replacement at second base in Frandsen, I'm a bit leery of Dan Ortmeier at first.
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by MarkO on Nov 2, 2007 7:03 AM PDT reply actions
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by howtheyscored on Nov 2, 2007 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions
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by orangeandblackattack on Nov 2, 2007 12:21 PM PDT reply actions

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