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1 millionth rebuilding thread

So, there have been 999,999 threads on Mcc about retooling the Giants for 2009 and beyond.

I just want to point out that the probability of your rebuilding success is not dependent on the amount of punishment you deal to your fans in terms of fielding pathetic losing teams.

Correlation is not Causation!

The Giants management job is, I think we all agree, to maximize the chances of pennants for 2008 and the future.  Note I switched from the 2009 everyone is assuming to the 2008.

"Playing kids" because they might miracle their way above mediocrity does not help.  

There's no Punting in baseball.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
OK, I think all of us would love to win the WS next year.  How do you propose to accomplish that?  Sign ARod?  The FA market is dry as a bone beyond him, so throwing money at FA's is not the answer.  Trades?  Yeah, we might be able to get some value in return for a Lowry or Sanchez.  What else do you have in mind?  If we were offered a blockbuster for Cain or Lincecum, like 3 or 4 or Tampa Bay's or the Dodgers top prospects, we would obviously have to consider it.  How likely is that to happen?

Given the much more likely choice of playing young players who have shown some promise like Frandsen, Schierholtz, Lewis and Ortmeier as well as our young pitchers vs more of 35+ yo over-the-hill mediocrities, I think I would rather watch the younger players and hope something good comes of it that we can add to in future years and build a winning team.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 9, 2007 10:41 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
The answer is clearly aliens. I've read the document. I know how it turns out. And believe me, we want the crazy alien.
Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Oct 9, 2007 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
I have to agree with DrB. While I would love to win the WS next year (or even the NL West ), I am concerned that to do that, the Giants FO would  sacrifice doing "the Right Thing". I am more concerned that the Giants build a sucessful player development program, draft for need and talent, and allow players currently in the system to mature, for better or worse..

Spending as*loads of money on mercenary talent (read overvalued FA's) is not the answer. It did not work for the Yankees (insert HA,HA guy here).

The Giants may not have the staff to do it. Matter of fact I'm convinced they don't, but it's better to start now and deal with the myriad of issues this club has than postpone it for a "quick fix" to win now.

I'd rather watch Frannie, Ort, Nate, and the "MahaRajai" try to win. Let the kids play, make the trades that make sense for tomorrow, build a team with a direction in mind. Don't just buy some old guys and hope that they can get it together enough to win. They've already tried that.

Just my .02

Ben Copeland, because face it, Who was left to adopt ?

by nvsfg on Oct 9, 2007 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
Of course, the "Alien" thing could work too :-)
Ben Copeland, because face it, Who was left to adopt ?

by nvsfg on Oct 9, 2007 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread

What part of what I wrote says "sign 35 year old mediocrities"???

Look, either Fred Lewis is for real or he isn't.  We don't need 700 PAs in the NL to determine this.  I am not saying sign Toree Hunter or anything!

If Dan Ortmeier can play 1B in the majors then he can damn well demonstrate it in Fresno.  I am not saying trade Matt Cain for Derrick Lee or anything!

If:
Lewis
Fransden
Davis
Ortmeier

are truly the best we can do for 2008, then by all means - play them.  But don't just pencil them in because "we need to get younger" or "we need to see what they are capable of".

by zenbitz on Oct 9, 2007 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
Okay, so: is Lewis for real or isn't he? If we don't need more playing time to determine it, then we should be able to give the answer now.
SJ Giants, 2007 Cal League champs! Couldn't have done it without the All-Father.

by EliminateMe on Oct 9, 2007 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread

You don't need to anoint the the guy a starting corner OF (assuming he can't play CF) to get him some PAs.  

by zenbitz on Oct 9, 2007 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
What do we need to get him PAs if he isn't for real?
If he is, why shouldn't he be starting?
SJ Giants, 2007 Cal League champs! Couldn't have done it without the All-Father.

by EliminateMe on Oct 9, 2007 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
I said either he is, or he isn't - not that I knew for sure.

OK, let's ignore the rest of the the OF.  You can play Randy Winn or Fred Lewis in RF in 2008.

Which do you think will help the Giants win more games in 2008?

How does playing Winn hinder the developement of Lewis?  He can start at AAA or he can get his 300-400 PAs as the 4th OF.

by zenbitz on Oct 9, 2007 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
As others have pointed out - Todd Linden among them - playing well at AAA doesn't really show whether you can play in the majors or not. What ultimately does that is playing in the majors.

As a 4th OF, it'll just take longer for the league to adjust to him, and to find out if he can deal with that. Also, the 4th OF will face more favorable matchups (platoon splits etc) and not have to deal with situations that a starter would be expected to handle.

So I think playing Winn does hinder Lewis' development, even if Winn is the better bet for helping the team win more games in 2008.

SJ Giants, 2007 Cal League champs! Couldn't have done it without the All-Father.

by EliminateMe on Oct 9, 2007 8:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
Go back to school and take a statistics course.

by zenbitz on Oct 10, 2007 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
Excuse me for attempting a considered reply to your comment. I'll stick to one-liner dismissals from now on.
SJ Giants, 2007 Cal League champs! Couldn't have done it without the All-Father.

by EliminateMe on Oct 10, 2007 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
go back to one liner school and take a one liner course
Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Oct 10, 2007 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh, snap!
You could get a master's degree with that one.
SJ Giants, 2007 Cal League champs! Couldn't have done it without the All-Father.

by EliminateMe on Oct 10, 2007 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
OK, I was a jerk here, but it's my thread.

And you can't possible be suggesting the following:

Todd Linden had good AAA numbers, and did not hit very will in the major leagues.  Hence, AAA numbers are meaningless.

Maybe I should change statistics to logic, but either way the conclusion to ignore AAA numbers does not follow from the "Todd Linden example".

by zenbitz on Oct 11, 2007 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
OK. So you agree that ARod is out of reach. You wouldn't sign Torii Hunter.  You wouldn't trade Cain for Derrick Lee.  You seem pretty cocksure that the Giants shouldn't play their young players and should try to build a winner for next season.  You have yet to give so much as one FA name or one trade you think would help accomplish this.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 9, 2007 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread

Why is A-rod out of reach?  We had enough money to sign barry freakin' ZITO.

What we should do, and I have said this at least 10 times, is RESIGN BONDS.

a) 1 year contract only
b) only part time so gives PAs to young guys
c) highest OPS in MLB last year
d) SF Giant hero
e) no one else (Exception: A-rod) to spend the money on

by zenbitz on Oct 9, 2007 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
I'm not against signing ARod.  I just think it's a pipedream that is not worth talking about.  I will be very pleasantly surprised if it happens.

Bonds ain't coming back, so that's also a dead horse.  Bonds is done as a position player.  By the end of the season, he was a statue in LF and the wear on his knees was clearly affecting him at the plate.  If he stays in baseball, and I wish him the best, it needs to be as a DH in the AL.

What you have left is a choice between way overpriced second tier FA's like Hunter and Jones, dumpster diving for the next Carlos Pena, or giving our own young players a chance.  They played well enough this year to earn that chance.  I'll take door #3, thank you.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 9, 2007 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
Repeat for the next 10 years of sub .500 ball or until the Giants get a GM who understands baseball.

by zenbitz on Oct 9, 2007 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Huh?
Now you've lost me for sure.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 9, 2007 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Huh?

My point was simply that playing a guy is not going to make him better. LewFransDavisMeier and co. don't need ML experience they need talent.

Throwing them at the wall and seeing if they stick is just going to lose alot of games in 2008.  Then we will be in the same boat in 2009 - and it's not like we have any barnburners coming up then.  

Since this organization has demonstrated the complete and utter inability to develop position players than can hit, my guessitmate is that they will continue to run slap hitting goons out there for the next 10 years, or until Sabean is fired.

Now - there are a couple places where I could be wrong:

  1. I could be underestimating the talent level of these guys.  However, the cream will rise to the top.  Getting some playing time as 4th OF, or platooning 2 of them, or starting in AAA gives them a totally reasonable chance to show that history is false and they were just biding their time waiting to feast on NL pitching.  Or they found the right drugs.
  2. Maybe Sabean and co. will develop some hitters for '09 and on.  And maybe monkeys will fly out of my butt.

by zenbitz on Oct 10, 2007 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

Fundamental Disagreement
I guess we just have fundamental disagreement here.  Very few players reach their peak production in the first year of their MLB careers.  In fact, most first year players struggle at some point in their first and second years.  Just take a look at the first year stats for Mike Schmidt, for example.  Steve Garvey would be yet another example.  The Dodgers weren't a very good team the first year or two that Garvey, Cey, Lopes and Russell played together.  Teams that successfully develop their own players, like Atlanta and Oakland have the patience to let their rookies play through the tough times.  There is a definite learning curve for major league players and it does help them to let them play.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 10, 2007 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Fundamental Disagreement
I can't really dispute your comments here - but what is missing from your analysis above is the minor league track record, or even scouting reports of those players.

Schmidt was 23 when he came up for > cup of joe
Garvey played part time from age 22-24 in the majors before playing 156 games at age 25.
Davey Lopes didn't even crack the starting lineup until he was 28!

Ron Cey, the best player of the bunch, does appear to be dumped into the starting lineup at age 25.  But he's a borderline HOFer, and probably a bad comparison to anyone the Giants have above AA.

Bill Russell just sucked so who cares.

Compare the giants - Davis, Lewis and Ortmeier will all be 27 next year.  This is actually an argument for starting them since they are probably  peaking...  I just don't think they will be any good.

Frandsen will be 26 - but I am actually totally in favor of giving KFrad a starting job, although I don't think he has the bat for 3B or the glove for SS, and Durham is probably untradable, under contract, and likely to out hit him (but not by much)

The bottom line is that anointing Davis/Lewis/Ortmeier as starters is basically just punting 2008.  I guess I just have more fight in me than that.

But, as everyone has said - I would not sacrifice any future (post 08) considerations to try to make a watchable team.
 

by zenbitz on Oct 10, 2007 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Fundamental Disagreement
So, you don't think any rookie should start his MLB learning curve until he reaches his peak years?  I think most observers think you need to get them established before then so you get the full advantage of their peak years.

I admit Dan Ortmeier's minor league career numbers are a bit shaky.  IMO, Nate Schierholtz' minor league record compares favorably with a lot of other prospects who get rated a lot higher.  IMO, he is one of the most underrated prospects in all of baseball.

Fred Lewis has always had reasonably good numbers, especially if you factor in his perennially excellent OBP's.  I believe his plate discipline bodes well and it's time to find out what he can do with a full year of major league PT.

You've already said you think Frandsen should play so I guess I don't have to defend him.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 10, 2007 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Fundamental Disagreement
Shierholtz is a prospect, I'll give you that.  He's young (24 next year) hit passably well in Fresno, and was not horrible in the majors.  Still, he's probably not ready to be an impact player in 2008.  He might out hit Roberts, he might not.  If he can't out hit Roberts (let alone Lewis/Davis/Winn), then there's no reason to bring him up and start his FA clock early.

I guarentee he will not start the year with the Giants, barring trades.  It will be interesting to see how the Giants OFs project with Zips/BP.

He played 3B through A-ball... I assume he was awful, but hell... would it be insane to put him at 3B at Fresno for a season to see if he can pick it up again??  

I did not say you should wait until a guy is in his prime to start him.  How the hell did I become the "Defender of Veteran Savvy" guy???

All I want is the team on the field that will win the most possible games in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, etc.

I don't think part-timing Lewis and Davis will significantly hinder their development.  Nor do I think we should sign anyone that's not a bona fide stud (currently none available) to play OF to a multi-year contract.

I just object to the punt strategy of throwing B and C grade "prospects" out there to "season" them while losing 100 games.   Maybe we lose 100 games anyway - but you have guys under contract who - mediocre or not - are likely to out hit our "young OF pop guns"

Sometimes punting is correct - but not in the 4th quarter down down by 14 with 4 minutes to go.

by zenbitz on Oct 11, 2007 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Fundamental Disagreement
Again, we have a fundamental disagreement here.  I believe the only way for ballplayer to improve is to play regularly. So, not playing Lewis, Davis, Nate, etc does hinder their progress to whatever ceiling they have.

As for putting the best team on the field, that's been the rationale for Sabean signing the likes of Aurliz, Feliz, Klesko, etc for years.  Perusing the FA market, I happen to think our best bet for an improved team next year is to play the kids.  If we can make a trade or two for a young player who is a significant upgrade for one of those positions, fine. I wouldn't turn down Wladimir Balentien in a trade just because he might displace Rajai Davis, but short of that, we will do better playing our own prospects than continuing the practice of signing other teams 35 yo rejects.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 11, 2007 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Agree
The once proud franchise has not been in playoffs in awhile and last season was a LAST place finish. To me that makes the 2008 season year four in rebuilding and not year one. Do not know why so many want 2008 season to be an open audition for players "to see if they can play". That is what the minor leagues, instructional leagues, fall and winter ball are for. That is what organizational reports and scouting reports are for.

If you want to see more of a player with a solid minor league track record (Frandsen, Schierholtz)  fine but to say Ortmeier is your starting 1b, Davis is starting CF and Lewis is starting LF you are setting yourself up for failure BEFORE the season. If you say we need to evaluate them more, why not platoon them? Why not give them occassional start? Otherwise if they fail then the 2009 season suddenly becomes the new year one of rebuild.

For the record, I hope Frederick Lewis get his chance in 2008. He seems to be in middle of many of the Giants scoring rallies. He needs to continue to improve and earn some playing time.

Sabean needs to make some deals to get young talented players in here who can help for the 2008 season rather than waiting for 2009.

by wilriv21 on Oct 9, 2007 11:13 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: Agree
Small correction, Wil: 2008 is year 4 of what should have been a rebuilding plan. In reality, it will be year one. We are way behind the competition (Rockies, DBacks, & Dodgers) in developing young hitters, and now it appears we will be behind for at least two more years, barring a miraculous non-Sabean-like trade for a young high-ceiling hitter.

I'm not sure I agree that starting Davis and Ortmeier (I'd have Lewis as a sub) is tantamount to  failure. A minor league track record doesn't indicate everything; some things have to be learned in the majors. It's the old "the pitcher adjusts, then the hitter adjusts, then the pitcher adjusts..." concept. We won't know if Ortmeier et al can make those adjustments until they've played a few months at the ML level. Take Kevin Kouzmanoff for example; if you'd given up on him in July, you'd have missed his excellent finish (those time frames pulled directly from my faulty memory). So maybe Fred Lewis (substitute any of the kids) is next year's Kevin Kouzmanoff: he's got a lot of potential, but it takes him 3-4 months to put it all together. Having him "put it all together" in Fresno just isn't the same thing - witness Todd Linden. So, letting the kids play is the best option in our current circumstances because in reality there is nothing else that Sabean can do that wouldn't be just short-sighted. If you already owed money to creditors that you couldn't pay back, would you then contact a Mafia loan shark? Yes, you'd solve your problem temporarily, but you're just putting off the real problem (and it that case, making things ultimately worse).

And yet I agree that Sabean needs to make some deals to get young talented players in here who can help for the 2008 season. But he doesn't have enough pieces to trade for Joe Koshansky, Yunel Escobar, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jeff Clement this winter(just to drag 4 names previously mentioned at positions we need desperately). But he does need to make a start. If we're VERY lucky, we'll get two guys like that; more likely, one guy. That one guy, even if he's Wladimir Balentien, isn't going to be enough to move us from fifth place to second place in the NL West. So yes, next year is a rebuilding year. We will lose a lot of games. Maybe in 2008 Schierholtz and Frandsen become the players I'm hoping they can be (.290/.335/.425 and .295/.385/.425) AND we get Balentien who rakes AND Sanchez excels in the #5 role AND Bengie Molina morphs into a cleanup hitter. Even then, we're just about competitive, which could still mean 4th place in the NL West.

This year, we began paying the piper. We will continue to pay all next year at least. I'm noting "giving up" on next year; I just don't want next year to be a useless year like that the past several have been.

The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Oct 9, 2007 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

uh...what I meant was...
I should have hit "preview" first.
-I'm actually hoping for more slugging than that from Nate.
-The Mafia example was an unexplained reference to the Free Agent market this year.
-And I'm "not" giving up on next year. I will, however, be "noting" it. In excruciating detail.
The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Oct 9, 2007 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Disagree
Suppose that in 2008 the Giants have a team that looks like:
C Molina
1B Ortmeier
2B Frandsen
SS Vizquel
3B Someone young
LF Lewis
CF Davis
RF Winn
Along with the obvious Pitching staff.
Durham, Aurillia & Roberts are benched.
I agree that this team would get their asses kicked and probably go 62-90. However, they could very well end up going into 2009 knowing that they had younger guys who can play at a major league level at 1B, 2B, CF & LF. Mix that with what is already a good rotation, veterans who will probably have another (semi-)productive year left in them at C & RF, and the Giants could be a left side of their infield away from a world series.

by Scottsdale on Oct 9, 2007 11:36 AM PDT reply actions  

62-90
10 rainouts?
Bonds stands alone.

by nostocksjustbonds on Oct 9, 2007 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 62-90
62-90-10

(Tie games playing the Giants' Wives don't count in the standings)

by Moggeee on Oct 10, 2007 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Disagree
Or they would go into 2009 with younger guys whom they know CANNOT play at a ML level at 1B/2B/CF/LF.

Or... they could think one of the above scenarios and be wrong

by zenbitz on Oct 9, 2007 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Disagree
Personally speaking, I'm a fan of going with someone who has at least the potential to surprise you and/or develop into a decent-to-pretty good hitter than sign yet another FA who's over 32, has seen his better days pass him by, and who you can pretty much count on to provide you with a .250avg/10-15homer season.  I think even Dan Ortmeier can provide that kind of production, at a lower cost, and give you the ability to move forward without him if he doesn't pan out.  But if we sign another guy this offseason to hit like Klesko did in 07, I'm going to vomit.  If it's not Ort at 1st, I'd want to see someone anyone young who actually could be the future of this franchise.  Not Rich Aurilia or the like.

Of course, I really wanted to see Neikro and Linden get the majority of playing time at their positions this past season.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Oct 9, 2007 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Disagree

Signing guys who are > 32 is generally meh.  Signing mediocre guys who are > 32 to long-term contracts is terrible.

Signing Klesko-types as 1-year stop-gaps is not a terrible plan.

Signing Bonds to a 1-year contract is obvious - he's PERFECT for this team.

by zenbitz on Oct 10, 2007 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

Dead Horse
Hey Zenbitz!  Barry Bonds is not coming back.  The horse is dead!  You can stop beating it now.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 10, 2007 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Dead Horse
Sabean is still employed by the Giants.
When that horse is dead, I will stop point out his faults.

by zenbitz on Oct 10, 2007 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
Just how are the Giants going to be a true competitor any time in this decade?  I have yet to see a plan that comes close.

And IMO the problem becomes attendance, beginning in 2009 at the latest.  The Giants say they are losing money now with their 3 million plus fans and a payroll just under $100 million.  How are the economics going to work out when the attendance figure dips closer to 2 million?

Personally I think the Giants should sell their fans on rebuilding the team, focusing their marketing efforts on their young pitchers.  Even if the Giants are successful in winning 75-80 games next season, without clear signs of rebuilding, I don't see the attendance remaining high.

Let's face it.  San Francisco supports winners, which the Giants aren't likely to be for several seasons, even with a strong rebuilding effort.  How soon will the stadium loan be paid off so that the Giants have actually have a combined competitive and financial chance?

by sharksrog on Oct 9, 2007 11:50 AM PDT reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
I usually agree with you - but I think you are too pessimistic on this front.

I don't think calling 2008 "rebuilding" and kicking barry bonds to the curb is going to increase '08 ticket sales, but I am no marketing expert.

The problem is - it doesn't matter.  The players they need to be good in the next 5 years aren't in the system so it's not like signing Klesko-types to short contracts is going to block anyone.

They should resign bonds for another year.  Why not? What else are they going to do with 18M?  Drop the price of beer to $6.50?  

Ortmeier should go to AAA and play 1B.
Shierholtz I think should also start in AAA so that he getss PAs.

That leaves the OF set.  Ideally you could get a warm body for Roberts and/or Winn, and play Shierholtz part time, but we are trying to be realistic here.

I would just keep Molina at C and Durham at 2B.  Sure, they are likely to suck, but there is no replacement in the wings.  

That leaves us with:
SS
3B
1B
and
Rich Aurilla & Kevin Fransden.

They need to beat the bushes and find a useful, probably league-average 1B.  You can cut and paste that sentence for the next 10 years, because it was just as true as the last 10.  Or really, since Will Clark left.

The only SS/3B FA worth a look-see cannot be mentioned without ending the thread, so fuck it - I go with Aurillia and Frandsen.

Spend the balance of the 90M payroll (or whatever it is).

5-10M minor league player dev.
rest: short-term contracts for bullpen arms

by zenbitz on Oct 9, 2007 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
I think you can get Giants fans on board with a rebuilding plan.  True Giants fans are tired of the status quo, and want to see some youth.  The majority of us look across the Bay at what Oakland has done and wonder why we can't get even one young hitter with any sort of potential.  Fair weather fans and fans who only know the name Bonds will probably flee like AT&T Park is the scene of a crime.  But at the end of the day, if you have solid young players who play their guts out and at least make for an entertaining watch, you can still have actual Giants fans showing up regularly.

Please note before calling me stupid, nowhere did I say that attendance will match the Barry Bonds years.  I am only saying that attendance shouldn't drop down to 2mil this year if you sell a rebuild plan.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Oct 9, 2007 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

So, only those who agree with
you are "true" fans?

Also, paying fans are paying fans. It's irrelevant whether they are "true" or "fair weather".

by rfloh on Oct 10, 2007 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good gravy, we really need to quibble THAT detail?
Sorry we have to split hairs over an unimportant part of my post, I should have avoided the generality.  I meant There are many true Giants fans...  Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, I am not saying your own opinion is worthless if you don't agree with me.  Sorry, I'm now having to restrain myself from getting incredibly irritable that you'd pick THAT stupid of a thing to argue.  That just seemed ridiculous.  No offense, it's just your post pissed me off.

You are right, it's irrelevant what people pay.  A ticket sold is a ticket sold.  But many actual fans will be happy to show up to the park if there's a real plan to get better over time.  That's my point.  Just that fans will still show up.  Is that okay?  My personal opinion is that there will still be well over 2million tickets sold with a plan.  If you want statistical data to back up my opinion, you're going to have to get a flashlight and look straight up my butt to get it.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Oct 10, 2007 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, that generality is what
irritates me about many in the stathead community. Anyone who doesn't with the tear down everything, lose lots of games rebuilding plan, isn't a "true" fan.

by rfloh on Oct 10, 2007 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

I've never been
accused by anyone of being a stathead, that's fo'sho.  I'm also not smart enough to say that what I think is the absolute right way to go.  There's more than one way to go, I'm just saying that I think a lot of Giants fans are ready to see the team move in a different direction than the typical build for today strategy the team has employed.  Again, not all.  But a lot.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Oct 10, 2007 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Well, that generality is what
Funny, because I am probably one of top 5 stat-headiest people on this site...

by zenbitz on Oct 11, 2007 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
This "beating the bushes" you talk about.  You think that's going to produce a better team than just playing guys like Nate, Fred, Dan The Man and Kevbo? I, for one, don't think so.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 9, 2007 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
Actually, legitimately getting younger gives hope (even if misguided, it's still hope).  Status quo of cagey veterans gives anger.
"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Oct 9, 2007 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
Carlos Pena signed a FA contract last year for $800,000 with Tampa Bay.

These players exist.  I am not going to spend 80 hours combing stat minor league stat lines and calling up scouts - that's Sabeans' job.

by zenbitz on Oct 9, 2007 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
Yes they exist.  Carlos Pena, Jose Guillen, Chris Carpenter, Jason Schmidt, Jeff Kent, etc.  

But I think you over-estimate the frequency with which these types suddenly put it together.  And on top of that, they often only do it for short bursts.  Esteban Loiaza only did it for one season.  Who knows what Jack Cust and Carlos Pena will do next year.

And I think you under-estimate the chances of our semi-prospects ;)

With that being said, I think part of the process in rebuilding is getting as many of the Carlos Pena types as possible.  And see what they do.

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Oct 9, 2007 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
There are indeed emerging players out there.  Let's hope Brian Sabean can find some.  To date, however, he has shown little ability to do so.  Rather, he has let players about to have good seasons slip through his hands.

Merely after the 2002 season he did so with Kenny Lofton, Reggie Sanders, Bill Mueller, Jeff Kent (already firmly established), Russ Ortiz and Livan Hernandez.

It's at DH, which the National League rarely has, but the past two seasons Billy Beane has gotten Frank Thomas and Jack Cust for peanuts -- only to see both post an OPS over .900.

A situation that galled me came before the 2004 season when Brian signed Mike Matheny as a free agent.  Brian ended the 2003 season with a good platoon that was much younger than Matheny (and sadly, less concussed, as it turned out).

Yes, the Giants perhaps DID need to get rid of AJ Pierzynski, the lefty-hitting, less defensive part of the platoon (I say platoon,although AJ was the clear #1 man.)  But that the Giants did so without offering AJ arbitration was merely another indication of a Sabean deficiency.  We all know what Brian traded to get AJ -- and that he wound up with NOTHING (He knows NOTHING, in Jim Cramer language? :) just a year later.

But then Brian compounded his error by signing Mike Matheny, just the opposite of what the Giants needed as a complement to good-fielding, questionable-hitting, righthanded-batting Yorvit Torrealba.  

Yes, I realize I could be considered guilty of putting the cart before the horse here.  But who is the starting catcher for one of the four teams still alive in the playoffs now? If Yorvit had steered clear of shoulder problems that have limted both his playing time and effectiveness the past two years, he likely would be even better than he is (which is good, not great).  And perhaps if Yorvit had stayed with the Giants, he WOULD have avoided his shoulder problems (which began with an injury suffered lifting weights).

The idea platoon partner for Yorvit was available -- and at a much lesser price than Matheny.  That player was platoon catcher deluxe, Gregg Zaun, Bengie Molina's partner a year ago.  The Giants paid Matheny over $9 million for three years.  Zaun was signed to a minor-league contract.

Sometimes it isn't possible to get the player you want (or worse, the player you need, regardless of whom you want) for a position.  But that doesn't mean you can't get TWO players to platoon effectively at the position.  This seems a particularly viable solution behind the plate, where few catchers catch over 120 games a season regardless of how good they are.  At no position is a good backup more important than behind the dish.

So the question arises?  Does Brian truly know how to construct a roster?  Two winters ago he said he wanted to improve the Giants OBP -- then signed Jose Vizcaino as his utlity infielder.  Not surprisingly, Jose was released before completing even his one-year pact.  Oh, and the Giants have finished second-worst and tied for third-worst in the majors in OBP the past two seasons -- DESPITE having the best OBP guy in the majors (a player who was handed to Brian his first day on the job).

Of course, Bonds is also still one of the top power hitters in the majors (finishing tied for 11th in the majors in SLG this past season, even at age 43).  Yet the Giants were tied for sixth-worst SLG in the majors in 2006 and slipped to the very bottom this past season.

How was it that Brian came to be re-signed this past season again?  :)

by sharksrog on Oct 10, 2007 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Stadium Debt
In 2004, this was the breakdown on the stadium debt:

SBC Park cost $315 million. After selling the naming rights for $50 million and raising about $90 million through personal seat licenses and corporate sponsorships, the Giants borrowed $175 million for construction. The team pays about $17 million annually to service that debt, and will for another 15 years.

source:MN Public Radio Article

Ben Copeland, because face it, Who was left to adopt ?

by nvsfg on Oct 9, 2007 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Stadium Debt
I thought the Giants were doubling their payments in order to have their loan paid off sooner.  How long WAS the original loan?  Or am I mistaken about the Giants doubling their payments?

by sharksrog on Oct 10, 2007 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
Okay, you really, really hate our semi-prospects and have already determined they will do nothing.  You feel so strongly about this that you made a diary for the sole purpose of pointing this out.  

I, however, feel that, barring somebody who will be on the team for the next several years (i.e. being on the next good Giants team), there's no one who would put those AB's to better use than our semi-prospects.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this.

By the way, I agree with Dr. B here.  Why don't you come up with some alternative plans instead of just harping over and over about how we should not play the semi-prospects because they are a bunch of Marvin Benard/Armando Rios/Todd Linden retreads?

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Oct 9, 2007 3:27 PM PDT reply actions  

Re: Agreeing with DrB

I am a doctor, too!

And I don't hate our young guys - I am realistic about their potential to be contributors at the major league level.

I have (in some other thread) outlined a plan where they would all either start in AAA or be given ~400 PAs at the ML level with a rotation program (putting Roberts' ass on the bench or traded)

by zenbitz on Oct 9, 2007 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

AAA
Why, pray tell, do you think that players who have hit .333/OPS .925(Schierholtz), OPS .916(Lewis) who have also done well in MLB action, or a guy who hit .269 including .370 in September(Frandsen) need to spend more time in AAA?  What do they have to prove or learn there?

As for Carlos Pena, he has always had potential, but has put up some mighty ugly numbers at several stops before TB pulled him out of the dumpster.  It wouldn't shock me at all to see Pena put up a .216 BA next year.  He's been wildly inconsistent in his career.  For every Carlos Pena, there's 10 Hee Seop Choi's.  TB just got lucky, that's all.  I don't see why you think dumpster diving is going to produce a better team than a group of homegrown players who collectively outplayed our vets this year.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 9, 2007 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: AAA
Carlos Pena sure is a touchstone these days. Obviously, anyone who tells you he saw this MVP-level year coming is lying. But Pena has actually been a consistent and useful player for years. He was pretty much a lock for a .330 OBP and 25-30 home runs a year (assuming he could get a full year of playing time). That's not particularly good for a first baseman, but it's okay if the price is right, and he was young enough that there was some potential for him to get better. But the Giants (and other teams with 1b/DH problems) went for flotsam like Klesko, Sean Casey, Hillenbrand instead. That's something that should be keeping their GMs awake at night.

But generally, I agree with you. Play the kids at OF and 2B; try to come up with at least one solid prospect (of whatever position) in a Lowry trade; and go dumpster diving for whatever holes are left over (1B/3B/SS). It ain't rocket science, folks.

by Evan on Oct 9, 2007 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: AAA

A post mentioning Pena from 2005: http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/story/2005/10/28/153312/19

A thread on Pena from 2006:
http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/story/2006/3/9/184240/7314

Another from 2006:
http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/story/2006/3/21/10123/2447

Yeah, no one thought he would put up an MVP season, but he was repeatedly mentioned as a good option for us.

by zenbitz on Oct 10, 2007 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: AAA
DrB,

I think Pena's season is pretty real. BTF just posted TB ZiPS predictions today and it projected that Pena would hit (.266/.400/.531) with 35 HRS. Not the same as his breakout year but still pretty damned awesome.

Link for anyone that's interested.

Even in 2004, his last season with 400 ABs or more, he posted a OPS+ of 112. He was a pretty good bet to be at least a league average 1B. When was the last time the Giants had a 1B that OPS+'d over 100? JT Snow in 2004?

It's amazing how badly the Giants have struggled to find league average production from presumably the easiest position.

by xanthan on Oct 9, 2007 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Define "mighty ugly"
Carlos year by year OPS+ from 2002, age 24: 104, 107 , 112, 112, 99, 167. Even if you toss out this year, he has been about league average or slightly below throughout his career.

WTF does Pena has to do with Choi? They were both once young 1b prospects?

by rfloh on Oct 10, 2007 12:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Uh, Yes.....
and they were both pulled off somebody's scrapheap.  All I"m saying is, yes, we may get lucky by going dumpster diving, but we also might get lucky playing some homegrown kids too.  I don't think we are going to build a championship team by dumpster diving.  BTW, the last time I  checked, TB held the #1 overall draft pick.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 10, 2007 7:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Uh, Yes.....
Do you think Ort can hit well enough to be a league average 1B?

I have my doubts but I hope he can do it, I just don't think he will.

by xanthan on Oct 10, 2007 7:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

League Average
He might have a chance to be better than that, or not.  He sure was better than Klesko, Aurilia, Lance Niekro and the last couple of years of JT in the chances he got.  Now, if the Dodgers were willing to trade James Loney for Noah Lowry, would I take it?  You bet I would, but I would take Ortmeier over another year of Klesko and I would take him over offering a big contract to Carlos Pena any day.

What about guys out there like Craig Brazell or Ryan Shealy?  Would you rather trade a minor league pitcher for one of them or give Ortmeier a chance?  I'd prefer to give Ortmeier a chance myself.

BTW, I think Hee Seop Choi is still out there.  Anybody want to sign him up?

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 10, 2007 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: League Average
Hee Seop Choi was playing baseball in South Korea last I heard.

I'd take a chance of Brazell if he came cheap, which he probably would.

Klesko was almost league average this year, I think he had a 92 OPS+ which I doubt that Ort will be able to do.

by xanthan on Oct 10, 2007 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: League Average
I'd rank them Choi, Shealy, Brazell, Ortmeier. They're all longshots to be decent, of course.

Ortmeier, in my humble opinion, has no chance to be a major-league regular at any position, much less a league-average first baseman. I have no doubt that he can hit 20 home runs, but he strikes out a ton and never walks, so he's going to have a hell of a time keeping his OBP over .300. Think Pedro Feliz without the defensive value.

Which is not to say he can't be useful to the Giants. We've got a lot of left-handed outfielders who could use platoon partners, and Ortmeier has generally hit lefties well.

by Evan on Oct 10, 2007 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

Choi?
You seriously think Hee Seop Choi is the best option out of that group?

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 10, 2007 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Choi?
Well, I kind of pulled that ranking out of my ass, but Choi was a pretty decent major leaguer for a couple of years in his mid-20s. He always struck out waaaaaay too much, but if you hit enough homers and draw enough walks you can get away with that -- viz. Adam Dunn. I remember him having a pretty good glove at first, too.

Brazell looks about like Ortmeier; he probably has more raw power, but the strike-zone judgment is just awful. Shealy has great minor-league numbers, but the Colorado effect makes them hard to assess, and his wipeout with KC is discouraging. I'd be happy to take a chance on him, but he's only five months younger than Hee Seop.

Any other youngish first basemen you're keeping an eye on?

by Evan on Oct 10, 2007 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Other Young Firstbasemen
Maybe Ryan Mulhern from Cleveland organization?  Maybe Joel Guzman from TB?  Not sure I have any more confidence in them than I do Ortmeier.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 10, 2007 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

So, players pulled
off scrap heaps are no good?

Did the Red Sox have the #1 pick when they signed David Americo Ortiz? He was dumped by the Twins!!11!! Surely signing him was not the correct way to build a championship team.

by rfloh on Oct 10, 2007 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Once In Awhile....
You get lucky with a player off the scrapheap.  I think we should be looking for playere on the scrapheap for 3B and SS since we have no prospects to fill those positions.  I absolutely am against blocking a prospect with a player off the scrapheap.

by DrBGiantsfan on Oct 10, 2007 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Once In Awhile....

I just wish we had someone worth not blocking.

It would be awesome to find a scrap heap SS/3B... but that's way harder than a 1B/OF.  You either get guys with some onbase ability, but can't field or pedro feliz types.

Although pedro feliz for $800,000 is way more palatable than $5M.

by zenbitz on Oct 11, 2007 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Agreeing with DrB
Well, I like to think I am realistic when it comes to our semi-prospects too.

So one of us is realistic-er than the other.  I guess time will tell who.  

I just don't see the value in keeping them in AAA.  Say one of them goes completely off down there.  The Giants call whichever one it is up and.....nothing.  What did AAA tell us with Todd Linden?  What did AAA tell us with Pedro Feliz heading into 2001?  I don't care what they can do in AAA.  I care what they can do in MLB.  Those plate appearances aren't going to anyone else important.  So it might as well be them.

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Oct 9, 2007 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Agreeing with DrB

It's very simple.

If you have a better option for 2008 who will not screw your "plans" for 2009+ then you should play that person.

Example:  Randy Winn, maligned as he is, will probably out hit Fred Lewis next year.

Bad Example: Sign Toree Hunter for 8/160 or whatever to put Lewis in AAA.

These guys have never shown the ability to kill AAA.  The "lesson" from the "Linden Experience" is NOT "AAA stats are meaningless".    May as well look at the D-backs and say "ratio of runs scored to runs allowed is meaningless".

The lesson is that sometimes guys mash AAA but can't cut in the majors.  However, I have never heard of a guy who mashed in the majors, was sent down to AAA - couldn't hit (for say 400 PAs or something) then came back up and had a nice ML career.

AAA is easier than the majors.  This is a given.  If you can hit in the majors you can hit in AAA.

Given a choice of 2 players, and no long term consequences - you should play the guy NOW who gives you the maximum chance of winning games NOW and send the other guy down, or use him as a platoon partner/sub.

by zenbitz on Oct 10, 2007 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Agreeing with DrB
If Randy Winn is on the team then he should be playing pretty regularly.  I never said otherwise.  What I have suggested is that Randy Winn be traded if at all possible.  

The long-term effects of playing Fred Lewis in AAA next year would be this, potentially:  Say Lewis tears up AAA for the first two months of next season (I don't care what you think the odds of this are, it's my scenario :p).  Then let's say that his stats didn't actually reflect his ability to hit in the majors (he was just hot or he knows AAA pitching well but can't compete against major league pitching), whatever the reason may be we've lost those two months time in evaluating how good of a hitter Freddie Lewis can be at the major league level.  For a team that's going no where next season, there's no real need for that to happen.  

 

Only 972 games until the end of Zito's contract.

by thehavenot on Oct 10, 2007 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
I would play the semi-prospects, while at the same time trading the veterans for prospects who may be much better, even if those prospects are very young and very far away from the majors.

by sharksrog on Oct 10, 2007 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread

Really shark - who is going to give us prospects for Roberts and Winn?

But I should tactfully agree here, even if you state the obvious.

by zenbitz on Oct 10, 2007 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
I think Winn might draw a prospect, although I certainly agree with you that Dave Roberts has almost no value and almost certainly can't be traded at full salary.

Any chances the Giants might have had for last season probably evaporated when it became obvious Moises Alou wasn't going to re-sign.

As we sit here today, the Giants have by far the worst hitting in the majors.  They have a fair amount of work to do merely to avoid being the lowest-scoring team in the majors in 2008.

Ideally a team would have an OPS of .800 or more.  Back in 2004 the Giants came close with a .795 OPS -- and finished second in the NL in runs scored with 850.  Even further back in 2000, they had an OPS of .832 and scored 925 runs.

The Giants didn't come close to an OPS of .800 last season, struggling in with a major-league worst .709.  Now, with Barry Bonds gone, not only are the Giants chances of building an OPS of .800 or more slightly less than nill, they don't have a single returning PLAYER whose individual OPS last season reached .800.

The Giants have nice pitching, but their hitting isn't much better than AAAA. JACK CUST had an OPS over .900, for goodness sakes.  Yet the Giants couldn't come up with anyone aside from their 15-year superstar who could even come within 100 points of .900.

The Giants hitting is so bad, they can't even hit on 10.

by sharksrog on Oct 10, 2007 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread

I should be clear - that just because I think we shouldn't punt - doesn't mean I think we have a chance.

I am worried that people are going give Sabean a pass for another 90-loss season because he's "rebuilding".

Curious shark - given Giants bugetary constraints (ca. 95M payroll) would you resign Bonds for another year?

by zenbitz on Oct 11, 2007 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
I will absolutely give Sabes a pass if he just doesn't fill each and every position on the diamond with another 35+ roster.  Play our prospects, trade someone for an actual prospect if possible, find a scrapheap reclamation project (38-year-old reclamation projects like Klesko really don't count), and I will abso-freakin'-lutely give him a pass!  Just because it will be a different strategy.  The problem I've had has definitely been the simple aging savvy veteran strategy.  Sure, we've not had any prospects come through that have been worth jack...  and that still falls on Sabean...  So that sucks...  Okay, I'm losing steam...  Still, I'll give him a pass for a different strategy, even if he works only Frandsen in, and maybe Nate.  At least he'll be showing he can move forward with someone young.

Testicles...  That is all.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Oct 11, 2007 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

Re: 1 millionth rebuilding thread
Okay. There are several different ways one could run a baseball team. One would be Steinbrennerian: spend whatever it takes to win. That would be nice, but it ain't gonna happen here.

Another would be to focus on maximizing revenues, without giving much thought to whether the team wins or loses beyond how that affects the number of butts in the seats, beer sales, TV contracts, etc. This is probably how most major league teams are in fact run, but it's not of much interest to us civilians.

Another would be simply to focus on trying to win as many games as possible every single year. This is what you're proposing, right?

A fourth way is to focus on building a team that has a reasonable chance to go all the way. Any victories that don't advance us toward that goal don't much matter one way or another.

If you take this fourth way as your goal, the logic leads you to trying to lose for a couple of years. That way you get to draft first, which is a big advantage. You can also work on clearing salary for the future: dump anyone with a big contract, renegotiate or use whatever accounting tricks are necessary to get those deferred payments in 2010 onward off the books. Sign every flopped ex-prospect you can find; most of them are going to suck, but one or two will probably put things together and become valuable contributors to your next good team.  

I'm not really proposing that the Giants should go whole hog with this. My point is that your "win as many games in 2008 as you can even though you know you're not going to win enough" strategy has some long-term costs, no matter how much you try to avoid them.

Given that, it comes down to an aesthetic choice. Lewis and Davis and Frandsen and Misch and Wilson and so forth are longshots to be anything more than role players, but they're young and enthusiastic and they embody hope. To me, that's a much more fun team to watch, even if they only win 70 games, than a bunch of 30 year olds winning 80.

by Evan on Oct 11, 2007 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

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