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Rumors....

From the Chronicle:

Talk among Japanese media representatives is that the Giants are seriously interested in corner outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, 30.
If the Giants had to make a splash in free agency, I suppose this could be less financial risk than a five-year deal to Andruw Jones. And it would leave Torii Hunter out of the picture, which is definitely a plus.

Here are Fukudome's career stats. I love that he's been an on-base machine. But while the Giants could certainly use a 30-homer corner outfielder, 30 homers in Japan doesn't necessarily mean 30 homers in MLB. Here's the transition of a statistically similar player:

Final year in Japan: .305/.365/.549, 33 HR, 36 2B, 587 at-bats

Career in MLB: .272/.325/.387, 17 HR, 77 2B, 1380 at-bats

Sure, Kaz Matsui's value was more batting average dependent than Fukudome's, but the power numbers are eerily similar. Matsui went from 30-homer power to Vizquel power. Just because Matsui had a power outage doesn't mean that Fukudome would. They could have totally different frames and swings; I'm certainly not a scout. But it would be a disaster if Fukudome didn't hit for power in a Giants uniform. Not to mention, Fukudome is a left-handed hitter, and Mays Field wouldn't exactly help him out.

Three-years, $24M? Take a chance.

Long-term deal after a bidding war, at the $10M price John Shea mentions? I'd rather have Andruw Jones.

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Re: Rumors....
Anyone know if there is PED testing in Japan?

by seyheystretch on Oct 26, 2007 10:17 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
It's sad that this is the same thing that first came to my mind. Damn the media.

by UnleashTheGore on Oct 26, 2007 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
The OBP is impressive.  With our lineup I doubt he'll get walked as much though.  I think he was hurt last year so hopefully he's more like the 05 & 06 numbers.

He definitely won't hit for power at Pac Bell.  Hopefully he'll be able to hit bombs on the road.

"Why you gotta be cardin' my hos?" - Charlie Hayes

by stevieg on Oct 26, 2007 10:25 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I've been wanting the Giants to dip into the Asian market for awhile, but the drawbacks with Fukudome seem pretty real:
  • moving to league that will sap some power in general
  • moving to park that will sap his left-handed power specifically
  • moving to lineup that will make it harder for him to get walks
Still... 30's not that old, and frankly, his Japanese stats reflect the exact type of player we should be targeting, it's just a question of how well they'll translate.

You don't get any rewards if you don't take any risks. I guess I'm in favor.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Oct 26, 2007 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

agreed
Shortish contract at medium money, as Grant suggests: Do it.  Anything longer or lusher, pass.
With the season over, I release my adoptee Brian Sabean. Good luck in the world, little buddy.

by Mayor of 311 on Oct 26, 2007 10:34 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I'd love to see an Asian player in San Francisco, I think it would be great.

Here's a video of Fukodome

I love his swing, but the power might not translate to the big leagues. Hideki Matsui was a high-30's to 50 HR hitter in Japan, and he's average about 24 HR's a season (not counting his injured 2006), so you can expect him to lose some power. Still, Matsui has been a very, very good hitter while in the states.

Are the Giants trying to recapture some of the fan base by signing Fukodome? He'd be a big splash in the SF community.

by xanthan on Oct 26, 2007 10:49 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm no scout
But I do not like the looks of that swing one bit. I've got it frozen at moment of contact as best I can, and his centre of gravity is falling over towards first base, and he is opening up extremely. He practically spins like a top after contact. Yeah it's cool to see him throwing himself so aggressively at the ball like that, and it no doubt generates great bat speed, but it's easy to see why he strikes out so much.

by Salemicus on Oct 26, 2007 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm no scout
I feel the same way. It' s ugly. Then again, Godzilla and Ichiro have ugly swings too, and they seem to get it done.

by BigO on Oct 26, 2007 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm no scout
I was going to say...it looks almost identical to Ichiro's swing.

by UnleashTheGore on Oct 26, 2007 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nah
Ichiro's weight is further forwards, and he seems much better balanced. Of course, this is only one swing.

On the other hand, it's not like Ichiro is a power-hitter.

by Salemicus on Oct 26, 2007 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Things to consider
That's only 1 AB.

It's lefty vs lefty so his approach might be much different against a righty.

Did you guys get a glimpse of that foul territory?  That's HUGE and it was his home field.  If he's pulling that kinds of OBP with foul territory that big, imagine what he'd do in SF with teeny tiny foul territory.

by Sigualicious on Oct 26, 2007 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Things to consider
That's something I've wondered about recently. Has there been any analysis of exactly how much size of foul territory impacts overall run scoring or individual player statistics? I'm thinking that ground ball hitters players would not be helped by a small foul territory.  Beyond that, I'm just curious if small foul territory (like at Mays Field) makes a significant difference in the number of runs scored.  

by tobias on Oct 26, 2007 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Triple down the right field line for Fukodome, runs in for the Dragons ...

What kind of surface was that?  That park looked big in the outfield, and really artificial (astroturf-y).

Baseball Prospectus has said that the Japanese leagues translate as somewhere between AAA and MLB.  Ichiro! sure seems to have done alright (in the defense, and SBs, and lots and lots of singles departments) - setting the single season record for base hits ain't nothing.

> I'd love to see an Asian player
> in San Francisco, I think it
> would be great.

May I remind you of some games in Anahiem not too long ago, and a questionable deployment by Dusty : Lofton in CF, a superannuated Dunston DHing, excellent defensive CF Shinjo riding the pine ...

by SnowLeopard on Oct 26, 2007 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I read this...

"The Red Sox wanted Giants outfielder Dave Roberts, a star in Boston's 2004 title run..."

...and was about to start screaming at Sabean for not dealing him, then read the rest of the sentence.

by Goofus on Oct 26, 2007 10:50 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Same here, except that I've screamed at Sabean so much over the past four years, I've lost my voice.

by tobias on Oct 26, 2007 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting...
51 games at 3B with only 3 errors. Hmmm... I am starting to see a scenario in which I could like this deal more.
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Oct 26, 2007 10:50 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Interesting...
I was going to say "Hell to the no" before I read this.  I would not want him signed unless it was to play 3B.
Thank God that's over.

by southcitysteve on Oct 26, 2007 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

For what it's worth...
Godzilla averaged 42.5 HRs in his final four seasons in Japan.  In the four full seasons he played in the mlb, he's averaged less than 24.

by Goofus on Oct 26, 2007 10:53 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: For what it's worth...
Iwamura's power went down too, but his OBP stayed strong and he was valuable in other ways.
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Oct 26, 2007 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Fukodome only makes sense for us if we can deal Winn AND Roberts in the offseason.

A Lewis-Davis-Fukodome-Schierholtz outfield.

Otherwise we just don't have room for another outfielder.

Who dat is? That's just Ortmeier's daddy.

by rotorueter on Oct 26, 2007 11:01 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I was thinking the same thing, if they can move either Winn or Roberts it would make some space.

by xanthan on Oct 26, 2007 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Would Fukodome really be an upgrade over Winn?

by Goofus on Oct 26, 2007 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
No way to know for sure, but there is at least some potential for more walks, more power, a stronger arm out of RF-----and all from a younger player.

Plus having an Asian player may have PR value.

Who dat is? That's just Ortmeier's daddy.

by rotorueter on Oct 26, 2007 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I'm not really interested in how Puerto Ricans value our players.

:-)

Didn't know Fukodome could play 3B.  I'm liking him replacing Feliz a lot more than I'm liking him replaining Winn.

by Goofus on Oct 26, 2007 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Fukodome vs Feliz

Fukodome will probably hit less homers and be a downgrade in defense.  However, he'll most certainly strikeout less and have a better average and probably score a few more runs. I don't see it as a vast upgrade over Feliz at third.

by Sigualicious on Oct 26, 2007 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Potentially, yes, Winn is just about a league average hitter (105 OPS+ in '07), I think Fukodome might be able to put up similar numbers, if not better.

Plus, I think he would be a big draw for the Asian community and that might be one of the Giants angles.

by xanthan on Oct 26, 2007 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I think of Winn in RF as being low on the list of our problems.

In terms of positions I have confidence we could hit league-average (or better) performance from in next season, in declining order :

2B - Fransden & Durham
C - Molina
RF - Winn
CF - Davis, Roberts, Lewis, etc.

And Dreamy will be an OK choice for SS, assuming that we can get offense from 1B, 3B, and LF (which I see as being the big challenges going towards 08).

by SnowLeopard on Oct 26, 2007 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Is league-average 2B production really that bad? WTF?
***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Oct 26, 2007 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
The average NL 2B hit (.272/.341/.418) in '07.

Durham - .218/.295/.343 in 464 AB's
Frandsen - .269/.331/.379 in in 264 AB's

It's truly amazing that Durham played as much as he did.

by xanthan on Oct 26, 2007 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Yeah I predict Durham will be DFAed before 2008 is out, after a season scuffling below the Mendoza line.  But he was our second best hitter in 2006 so stranger thing have happened than him working out all winter and coming back to OPS .750+ next season.  Between him and Frandsen, I feel the most confidence in 2B than any of our other positions, except maybe C.

by SnowLeopard on Oct 26, 2007 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I can give you about 14 million reasons why Durham got to play so much last year.

When is too much?  For example, Durham was hitting pretty badly in 2006 for about half a year, then turned it up big time.  Same with Alfonzo his first year with us, nothing much first half, on fire second half (he had almost 1 RBI per game average in second half).

Then there are years like Durham in 2007, Alfonzo any year after that, where they just sucked all year long.  

How do you know if it is a year he turns it up in the second half, or sink even lower instead?

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 26, 2007 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I know why Durham got to start, the financial reasons, but I think it was obvious say by August he wasn't going to turn it around.

As for

How do you know if it is a year he turns it up in the second half, or sink even lower instead?

Good question, but I would be skeptical of Durhams chances because of his age. How often do 35 year olds turn things around so rapidly?

by xanthan on Oct 26, 2007 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I think by the time July rolls around, if your still hitting below the Mendoza line, you can be given a chance to play through it and either up your trade value or prove you aren't turning it around.  But if you must wait until the end of the waiver deadline to get playing time and up your value or turn it around, so be it.  BUT IN SEPTEMBER AND YOU STILL CAN'T GET YOUR AVERAGE ABOVE MENDOZA???  WTF????

Also, if there's an heir apparent at your position, it's time to pack up the old guy and give the heir apparent his shot.

"He called the sh** POOP!" -- Adam Sandler

by JRPhillips on Oct 26, 2007 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
In fairness to Bochy, Durham's first-half numbers for '07 were .252/.321/.404. Frandsen's were .267/.342/.362. Ray Ray didn't get really bad bad till the second half, and at that point Frandsen did start getting a lot more playing time.
Twenty-seven years of waiting has come to an end.

by trapper9 on Oct 27, 2007 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Once again, Edgardo needs me. You talked about his decent first year, but he hit .289 in his second year, and .277 the last year when everyone hated him. Don't even compare that to Ray Durham and his .218. He was fat, overpaid and a tenth of the player he was with the Mets, but he was still a decent player. I may be the only member of the SF Giant Edgardo Alfonzo fan club, but I stay loyal to the end!!
Joe Simpson:"I was told by a player that the hardest throwers he saw all year were Ubaldo Jimenez and RANDY MESSENGER"

by rxmeister on Oct 26, 2007 7:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
The problem with Edgardo was not the batting average - the BA was, as you point out, passable.  The problem instead was his lack of power or walks, especially in his last year, relative to his importance to the offense, and relative to his proportion of the total team salary.

by SnowLeopard on Oct 26, 2007 9:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Edgardo always hit over .300 with RISP, and he literally carried us on his back in the Marlin playoff series of 2003, hitting over .500. His salary was high, but not as high as Durham's was last year for his .218, and it certainly wasn't his fault that Sabean overpaid him. I always thought that Edgardo might have been juiced when he was a Met, because watching him with the Giants I could never see how that guy used to hit 25-30 homeruns in a pitcher's park like Shea Stadium. The other theory on him was that his back problems took all his power away. Was it Alfonzo's fault that Sabean never checked all of this out??
Joe Simpson:"I was told by a player that the hardest throwers he saw all year were Ubaldo Jimenez and RANDY MESSENGER"

by rxmeister on Oct 27, 2007 6:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
> It certainly wasn't his fault that
> Sabean overpaid him.

Well I wasn't, ummm, personally angry at him.  It's more like, he was a drag on the team at that salary, and that's one reason why people weren't so thrilled with him.

by SnowLeopard on Oct 27, 2007 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Durham having a bad half year in 06 is a myth. He was only bad in April. He had an OPS over .800 every other month (and ended up at .816 for the first half altogether.)
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Oct 26, 2007 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Frandsen was just 25 this season.  He slugged .439 in August and September.  Baseball Prospectus gives a MLE (major league equivilence) for his AAA Fresno seasons as .326/.340/.505 (2005) and .299/.343/.445 (2006).

I think that they give him the full time job at 2B and leave him alone, he'll be OK next year.  Not Jeff Kent 2000, but, pretty much, the least of our problems.  In fact, he's the only young homegrown Giant position player I have much confidence in (certainly a lot more than Niekro, Freddie, Ortmeier, or Schierholtz).

by SnowLeopard on Oct 26, 2007 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
You have more confidence in Franny than in Nate and Freddie? Whoa.

I mean, I can understand if you think Kevin has the best shot at being an MLB starter, simply because he fills the need and he's what we got, but the ceilings on Nate and Freddie are much higher, and if I'm not mistaken, they've already out-performed Mr. GIDP at the major league level.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Oct 26, 2007 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Well, he's younger than any of them except Schierholtz.  And he second base, where league-average hitting is a lot lower than outfield or 1B.  

Plus, I really don't trust the Giants to have the player development philosophy and training to develop an actual stud hitter.  My sense is that the kind of hitter that Frandsen is, you know, batting average with some gap power, but not many homers walks or SB, is the kind of hitter that I imagine is the best that could come out of their system.

by SnowLeopard on Oct 26, 2007 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
While I'd say Frandsen is most likely to be a league average hitter, I think Schierholtz, Lewis and even Davis have a higher upside.

by Goofus on Oct 26, 2007 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Fran V Lewis
Fran has had a better eye throughout his career (BB/K ratio) especially last season at big league level.  

Fran is a better contact hitter, posting better Line Drive percentage, better BABIP, and better batting averages.  

Fran actually has a slightly higher ISOP than Lewis in the minors and both were hitting dingers at rate of about 1 per 60 AB in the bigs.  I'd call them even in power.  

Fran is a second baseman.  Fred is a corner outfielder.

Lewis has been a better base stealer but even still he is below the 75% threshold where it's even worthwhile to steal.  

Zealously advocating for Nate the Great since 2007.

by orangeandblackattack on Oct 26, 2007 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Agree with you on all those points.  

My earlier statement said another way: At this point, Frandsen is closer to reaching his potential. Because he has tools that Frandsen doesn't, Lewis' potential is higher, but he's not yet close to reaching that potential.

Said even simpler, if they both reach their potential, Lewis would be the more valuable player.

by Goofus on Oct 26, 2007 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I look at those two and, on the one hand, I see a Randy Velarde or a Wally Backman or a Joey Cora, i.e. just a guy there playing second base for you, and, on the other hand, I see the second coming of Calvin Murray.

by SnowLeopard on Oct 26, 2007 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Barring injury I'm betting Frandsen will put up a 300/365/420 line next year.  
Zealously advocating for Nate the Great since 2007.

by orangeandblackattack on Oct 26, 2007 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I see what you did there.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Oct 26, 2007 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
No... wait... I take it back. I have absolutely no idea what you did there.
Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Oct 26, 2007 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/frandke01.php

Look the columns entitled "AVG OBP SLG" under equivalents - those are translated major league equivalents of his minor league performances.  Pretty good numbers.  

The chart doesn't have 2007, I guess you have to pay for that.  Last year, of course, Frandsen batted .403 in his first 83 PAs of the year as a full-timer at Fresno, was brought up and struggled playing part-time in The Show, and then was given the full time job down the stretch and hit pretty well.

He's the one young Giant I have faith in - if they give him the starting job and leave him alone.  .065 seems a bit high for an isolated OBP, he doesn't seem to me to walk that much, but, other than that, I see 2B as our strongest position right now (relative to the rest of the league).

by SnowLeopard on Oct 26, 2007 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
And yes I know that he has 26 BB+HPB in 296 big league PAs last year, for a .088 isolated OBP.  That's not the typical way he's rolled in the past.

by SnowLeopard on Oct 26, 2007 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
You make a pretty nice case for those being realistic, achievable numbers for the guy. I just see those numbers (.300/.365/.420) as the "best-case scenario" version of Frandsen. saying you'll (not you, SL) be surprised if he does worse than his best case scenario seems a bit of a stretch to me.

There seems to be a bit of pipe smoking going on there. Honestly, I believe Kevin will be about 20 points lower in each category as long as he doesn't fall apart. And I'd be more than happy with just that much production from him.

He certainly has the potential to hit that well. I'm just not going to count on it.

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Oct 26, 2007 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Sounds realistic to me as well.  And, I'll say my central point one more time : if KF can put up 280/345/400 (which is orangeandblackattack's projection, minus 20 points) batting second or seventh full-time, while playing passable D at second base, then he will be among the least of our problems.  

Figuring out how to get 50 HR and 450 H+BB out of [LF+1B] next season is, to me, the biggest question of this off season.

by SnowLeopard on Oct 27, 2007 12:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
...from your lips to Sabean's ears. Or fingers > eyes. However that works.
The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle on Oct 27, 2007 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_san_francisco_gian ts/

Maybe you've seen this already, but Szymborski and Zips are with you on this one, to the tune of .271/.322/.367

by SnowLeopard on Oct 27, 2007 12:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
the big question with Frandsen is his excellent plate approach this season to the tune of 24 Strikeouts vs. 26 Base on Balls plus Hit by Pitch.  Is this a fluke or does it represent true improvement.  I'm guessing that he's really learned how to approach hitting as a major leaguer judging by his minor league stats (he showed a good eye in the low minors), based on watching him change, and based upon his own diagnosis of the problem.  

The rest just assumes the rest of his Iso's improve slightly (since he is likely to peak at 27) so his IsoP of 110 goes up to 120 and his IsoB goes from 62 to 65.  

Personally I think best case scenario for Fran is 315/385/460.  

Zealously advocating for Nate the Great since 2007.

by orangeandblackattack on Oct 27, 2007 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
http://www.leftymalo.com/2007/10/youre_the_one_that_i_want_part.php

Lefty Malo points out that Frandsen and Pedroia's minor league aggregates look pretty damn close.  Some commenters then problemitize this, but it's an interesting assertion.

by SnowLeopard on Oct 27, 2007 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
This is why I don't hold out much hope for Davis and Lewis.  They are not likely to outhit Kevin Fransden (if you compare minor league stats at equivalent ages/levels)

Frandsen I think has a shot to be a ML average 2B at the plate.

by zenbitz on Oct 27, 2007 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Agreed.  And, if the Giants can fenengle a .275/.340/.380 our of a center field platoon (which seems doable) it won't be great, but it won't be our biggest headache either.

Trying to find a blue chip clean up hitter who plays 1B, LF, or 3B, and support him with this year's Jack Cust or Carlos Pena (some non-All Star who is nonetheless ready to deliver), and do it all without weakening the rotation too much - that is the crux of the matter.

by SnowLeopard on Oct 27, 2007 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

a qualified meh...
I don't think he's what we need. But if his contract keeps us from getting Andruw Jones, and it isn't more than 3 years, and we can trade Roberts and another OF not named Schierholtz to make some room, and this prompts the D'Backs or Dodgers to make an even dumber move....so be it.
The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle on Oct 26, 2007 11:10 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I'm pretty unenthusiastic. If we bring in a guy to play a corner, I want him to have some degree of guaranteed power.

Power isn't the end all. He still should be able to hit in general. Fukudome is exactly the kind of player I'd want if I knew 20+ power was also part of the package.

Maybe that's asking too much, though... I just don't know anymore...

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Oct 26, 2007 11:20 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Fukudome's
K / BB ratio over his career is noticeably better Kaz Matsui's:

Fukudome: 571 BBs / 885 Ks, 0.645 BBs per K
Kaz Matsui: 376 / 751, 0.5 BBs per K.

Over their careers, Fukudome has both better sluggin g percentage: 543 to 486, and better iso slugging: 238 to 177.

Slugging and ISO slugging of some other Japanese players when they were in NPB: Hideki Matsui: 582, 278. Akinori Iwamura: 519, 219. Tadahito Iguchi: 471, 200.

Fukudome's defense is supposed to be very good. For Fukudome to be worth some thing like $10 a year, his defense would probably have to be as good as claimed.

Eric Byrnes got $30M. Average offense for a corner, with great defense.

Could Fukudome be something between Byrnes and Ichiro maybe?

by rfloh on Oct 26, 2007 11:49 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I don't see how he'll be an upgrade over what we already have. It will be an interesting change though. I would prefer Andruw Jones. Fukudome is yet another lefty who won't hit any homeruns in ATT. Everyone knocks Andruw Jones around here, and I didn't want him at first, but all that speed we have won't we worth a damn if we don't have anyone to knock them in. Andruw hits righty, doesn't hurt the speed and defense mantra, and will hit about 35 homeruns and knock in 100 runs. Why would we want that when we can send Dave Roberts out there everyday?? I can understand the cost and years aspect, but by the time we have to give Villalona and Noonan their 100 million dollars deals, Andruw's money will be long gone.
Joe Simpson:"I was told by a player that the hardest throwers he saw all year were Ubaldo Jimenez and RANDY MESSENGER"

by rxmeister on Oct 26, 2007 11:54 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Do you really want to pay Andruw $15M+ per year for 5+ years when at age 30, for no injury reason, no outwardly obvious problem, he only hit .222/.311/.413?  He hit about as bad as Dave Roberts (.260/.331/.364) and at least Roberts had an explanable problem, his elbow:

Pre-ASG:    .226/.297/.337
Post-ASG:   .291/.362/.388
Prev. 3 Yrs:.271/.352/.401

As you can see, Roberts hit roughly his career norm after his elbow healed and was OK after the surgery.  And his career norm is a bit higher than what Andruw did in 2007.

Are you really willing to risk such a huge and expensive contract on Jones when you have no good explanation for what happened to Andruw in 2007?  I'm not.

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 26, 2007 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
It's hard to say how much he'd be worth without knowing how good his defense, but I'd guess he's worth about 4-5 WARP or at most about half a win over Winn (assuming that Winn will be about 4.5 next year)

He would be worth probably 2 more Wins than Roberts assuming he played about the same amount of time.  And I'm guessing that even if we moved Roberts we'd be paying 4 mil a year of his salary.  So that's like 16 mil a year for 4-5 wins or about 4 mil a win.  Yikes.  That's as wasteful as the Zito contract.    

And Fukuodome is also on the wrong side of 30.  Have to call this one a pass.  

Zealously advocating for Nate the Great since 2007.

by orangeandblackattack on Oct 26, 2007 12:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I don't think Andruw Jones can be had for $10 million per season.  I suspect he will command at least 50% more than that.

by sharksrog on Oct 26, 2007 12:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I see no reason to trade Winn, then pay more for somebody who may or may not be as good as him.

Unless, like, it means there'd be more Japanese chicks at the ballpark, which would be cool.

by mxmob33 on Oct 26, 2007 12:09 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Jones is a good question.  How much will teams want to sink into him after this year?  I wouldn't be surprised if he only goes for 12 times 5.  Or he might sign a 1 year contract in the hopes of boosting his value.  
Zealously advocating for Nate the Great since 2007.

by orangeandblackattack on Oct 26, 2007 12:10 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
With Andruw Jones, I worry more about length of deal than money per season. The Giants could certainly afford to give him what he wants per season, but several years down the road they may wish they had that money for someone else. We've heard rumors here about the Yankees thinking of offering ARod a 3 year 120 million dollar extension so he doesn't opt out of the deal he already has. If we can keep the offer to Andruw down to 3-4 years, I don't think money will be a major issue. The obvious problem is that he has the same agent who talked the Giants into the Zito deal, and he will try to get even more for an everyday player.
Joe Simpson:"I was told by a player that the hardest throwers he saw all year were Ubaldo Jimenez and RANDY MESSENGER"

by rxmeister on Oct 26, 2007 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sarge Jr got $50M / 5
last year. Even with his down year, I seriously doubt a guy with Andruw's resume would get a contract similar to Matthews Jr.

by rfloh on Oct 26, 2007 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I'm gradually talking myself into Andruw Jones. I think it's going to take a Carlos Lee-size contract, though. Which is what, 6 years/$100 million? Eep. Just wish I knew whom to believe about his current defensive capabilities.

by Evan on Oct 26, 2007 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
For what it's worth, he's by far my favorite of the available high profile free agents.

That's not saying a lot, of course, but it is true.

Dave Righetti: You Know You Want It. / Also, my blog. For writers.

by howtheyscored on Oct 26, 2007 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't do it Evan!
Be strong. Re-read Martin's post. Re-read the post about his WARP cost (sorry, I forgot who posted it). Think about how many overpaid players we already have. Remember the Albatross.
The SF Giants: agressively promoting young talent since 2008.

by Lyle on Oct 27, 2007 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Does Fukudome have an LED-display belt buckle?  

by Goofus on Oct 26, 2007 12:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
(Un)fortunately, Shinjo is one of a kind.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Oct 26, 2007 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
When I was 11, he was my absolute favorite player ever.

like eeeeeeever.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 26, 2007 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

2007 Injury?
Does anybody know anything in detail about him appearing in only 51 games during the 2007 season?
All I can find out is that he had endoscopic surgery to remove bone fragments from his left elbow? Maybe someone has some more details?

by Scottsdale on Oct 26, 2007 12:39 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: 2007 Injury?
Also intended to mention that it looks like the 3rd season in which he has missed a good chunk of time...

by Scottsdale on Oct 26, 2007 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
This is an interesting find. I think we should definitely take a chance on this guy. There's not another corner infielder in free agency we can pick up who may put up these types of numbers. I'm down with this one!
Go see my Giants blog at http://www.michaelnewjr.com

by Mike New on Oct 26, 2007 12:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
everyone's saying he's an outfielder though. Change my vote from no to yes if he's capable of playing third base everyday.
Joe Simpson:"I was told by a player that the hardest throwers he saw all year were Ubaldo Jimenez and RANDY MESSENGER"

by rxmeister on Oct 26, 2007 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
If I recall correctly, Fukudome was moved to the outfield because he didn't handle 3rd very well.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Oct 26, 2007 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Mike Lowell's .324/.378/.501 is pretty shiny, but he'll probably cost more and he's older.

What artifically inflates numbers more, playing in Japan or playing in Fenway?

by Goofus on Oct 26, 2007 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
three's one 1 3rd baseman I didn't mention (whoop whoop whoop)

by Goofus on Oct 26, 2007 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Shmalex Shmroshriguez?
Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 26, 2007 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
are you the michealnew20 that i see post on digg.com all the time?

by sleeknerve on Oct 26, 2007 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
On that link Grant provided, it said he played 51 games at third in 2001 and has played the outfield since. I would not consider him a third baseman, and if the Giants attempt to play him there the defensive dropoff from Feliz will probably be scary.
Joe Simpson:"I was told by a player that the hardest throwers he saw all year were Ubaldo Jimenez and RANDY MESSENGER"

by rxmeister on Oct 26, 2007 1:12 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

He's not a 3b
He's a 3b the way Pedro Feliz is a slugger.

CF is a more realistic, though IMO unrealistic, position change.

by rfloh on Oct 26, 2007 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
I love the name, but not the swing. And we don't need any more friggin' free agent outfielders. We just don't.

He's a left-handed, marginal power-hitting corner outfielder. that isn't what this team needs. That's what it already has. What we need is right-handed corner if/of THUMP.

So Fuck Sabean and his speed-ball dreams. FUCK THAT.

Bonds stands alone.

by nostocksjustbonds on Oct 26, 2007 3:40 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Are you guys really serious?  $8M for 3 years on a Japanese player who MIGHT be around average?  And in the OF, where we have a multitude of players who look average, but one who could be more than that in Schierholtz.

At 3B, I can at least understand that angle, we need a 3B, but again, $8M per year for 3 years?  Hell, at that price, I would rather have Feliz for 2 years at $5M per, and I think we should look elsewhere for help for 3B, not Feliz or the expensive free agent market.

I think we should go with what Grant noted a while back in a post (and which I've been after for a while now too) and persue a reliever or two.  We have seen a lot of good successes there in the majors.  

Not so much for position players or starting pitchers, Ichiro mainly, but even Godzilla has been a pretty big disappointment, even with his fine play thus far.  Dice-K has been nice but nothing near the hyperbole that others put out there on him.  Igawa was an unmitigated disaster and Kazuo Matsui was an even bigger bust until rehabbing his rep with his play for the Rockies this season.

At 3 years and over $24M, I would rather start Frandsen there instead.  

"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley "I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 26, 2007 3:53 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
"At 3 years and over $24M, I would rather start Frandsen there instead."

That's just nuts. Why would you pay Frandsen over $24M for 3 years to play 3rd?

:-)

by Goofus on Oct 26, 2007 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
$8M for 3 years on a Japanese player who MIGHT be around average?

Well, he might take that .450 OBP/35-HR power from Japan and turn it into .410 OBP/25-HR power here. That's what the bidding teams will expect when they pay him $10M.

There are good reasons to doubt that, but your comment reads as if the best-case scenario would be that Fukudome is average. That's not true.

I'd rather pay Fukudome than Winn in a kind of Pascal's Wager:

a. Keep Winn -- Winn hits like Winn, which isn't enough to help a team all that much.

b. Sign Fukudome -- he hits like Jason Bay in Bay's prime. The team is helped a great deal.

c. Sign Fukudome -- he hits like Winn, which isn't enough to help a team all that much.

d. Sign Fukudome -- he bombs, which doesn't help the the team at all.

Of all of those scenarios, only one substantially helps the team, and the difference between a. and d. isn't likely to be that big of a drop off. This assumes that Fukudome makes about the same salary as Winn, and that Winn is traded. That isn't going to happen, as Fukudome will make much more than that, so it's a moot point. But that's why I'd pay him 3/$24M

by Grant on Oct 26, 2007 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Very nice
Obsessive hit all the right points.

by wilriv21 on Oct 26, 2007 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What of Kenji Johjima and
Tadahito Iguchi? Would you say that they've been disasters or even disappointments?

by rfloh on Oct 27, 2007 12:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trading Winn
Why does everyone want to trade Randy Winn so badly?  Right now he's the best hitter we have.  BP has Winn at 10 runs above average for his position (they take park factors into account).  
Zealously advocating for Nate the Great since 2007.

by orangeandblackattack on Oct 26, 2007 4:48 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Trading Winn
I'm not itching to get rid of Winn. But I would rather pay Fukudome $8M than Winn.

But Fukudome will get more, so it's a moot point. Whatever salary he does get will be too much.

by Grant on Oct 26, 2007 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

pale ale
The guys and gals at Baseball Prospectus seemed to like Fukudome heading into this year. One person even compared him to H. Matsui.

But I can't be rational about this. The allure of signing a foreign talent who changes the franchise for the better is just too much.

Dominican, Japanese, Cuban -- whatever -- it's so easy to fantasize about these guys. Also, I'm drunk.

by Dan from NM on Oct 26, 2007 10:16 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: pale ale
I fully understand your line of thinking, and I'm sober. Some of these guys available may not make us a better team, but who didn't get sick of seeing that same pile of crap trotted out there everyday in 2007?? I can understand the philosophy of ANYONE other than guys like Roberts, Winn, Vizquel, Feliz, Durham etc. every day. At least we would know that management shares our disgust. So far they have dumped the one guy we actually looked forward to seeing everyday, at least now get rid of all the guys that made us sick!!
Joe Simpson:"I was told by a player that the hardest throwers he saw all year were Ubaldo Jimenez and RANDY MESSENGER"

by rxmeister on Oct 27, 2007 6:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
hey, when he fails in the mlb...will he go back to japan and become a porn star like the last guy we got??

by bacci40 on Oct 27, 2007 12:00 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Dude, he wants to do nude modeling. Big difference.
Nattowear | comics | Durham? I hardly know 'im!

by Natto on Oct 27, 2007 12:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Rumors....
Didn't Dave Grohl of Foo Fighters say that he hated watching Japanese porn because nobody in the movies seemed to be enjoying it?? At least in Shinjo they will have a willing participant!!
Joe Simpson:"I was told by a player that the hardest throwers he saw all year were Ubaldo Jimenez and RANDY MESSENGER"

by rxmeister on Oct 27, 2007 6:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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