• moving to league that will sap some power in general
  
• moving to park that will sap his left-handed power specifically
  
• moving to lineup that will make it harder for him to get walks

You don't get any rewards if you don't take any risks. I guess I'm in favor.

What kind of surface was that?  That park looked big in the outfield, and really artificial (astroturf-y).

Baseball Prospectus has said that the Japanese leagues translate as somewhere between AAA and MLB.  Ichiro! sure seems to have done alright (in the defense, and SBs, and lots and lots of singles departments) - setting the single season record for base hits ain't nothing.

> I'd love to see an Asian player
> in San Francisco, I think it
> would be great.

May I remind you of some games in Anahiem not too long ago, and a questionable deployment by Dusty : Lofton in CF, a superannuated Dunston DHing, excellent defensive CF Shinjo riding the pine ...

Pre-ASG:    .226/.297/.337
Post-ASG:   .291/.362/.388
Prev. 3 Yrs:.271/.352/.401

As you can see, Roberts hit roughly his career norm after his elbow healed and was OK after the surgery.  And his career norm is a bit higher than what Andruw did in 2007.

Are you really willing to risk such a huge and expensive contract on Jones when you have no good explanation for what happened to Andruw in 2007?  I'm not.

like eeeeeeever.

What artifically inflates numbers more, playing in Japan or playing in Fenway?

That's just nuts. Why would you pay Frandsen over $24M for 3 years to play 3rd?

:-)

Well, he might take that .450 OBP/35-HR power from Japan and turn it into .410 OBP/25-HR power here. That's what the bidding teams will expect when they pay him $10M.

There are good reasons to doubt that, but your comment reads as if the best-case scenario would be that Fukudome is average. That's not true.

I'd rather pay Fukudome than Winn in a kind of Pascal's Wager:

a. Keep Winn -- Winn hits like Winn, which isn't enough to help a team all that much.

b. Sign Fukudome -- he hits like Jason Bay in Bay's prime. The team is helped a great deal.

c. Sign Fukudome -- he hits like Winn, which isn't enough to help a team all that much.

d. Sign Fukudome -- he bombs, which doesn't help the the team at all.

Of all of those scenarios, only one substantially helps the team, and the difference between a. and d. isn't likely to be that big of a drop off. This assumes that Fukudome makes about the same salary as Winn, and that Winn is traded. That isn't going to happen, as Fukudome will make much more than that, so it's a moot point. But that's why I'd pay him 3/$24M

But Fukudome will get more, so it's a moot point. Whatever salary he does get will be too much.