Stop Laughing....
What would it take for the Giants to get into the World Series next year?
Hey, don't get all judgmental on me for asking the question. Don't..HEY, I'M NOT HIGH. Or drunk. Even if I were drunk -- say, before noon from a delicious nine-year bourbon with caramel undertones and a hint of smoke, feeling guilty about drinking before noon on a weekday, but explaining it away with the "reward" defense, as in, I did well on my midterm today, so I deserve to sit furtively in the back of the train car clutching a bottle in a brown paper bag, though, at some subconscious level, I know that's just an excuse for doing the only thing I know that will help me think and write optimistic thoughts about the Giants -- it wouldn't change the validity of the question.
Ahem.
My thoughts:
- Right now, the Giants have a rotation that is capable of getting them to the World Series. Josh Fogg wouldn't sniff the top four of this rotation, and I'd take Cain and Lincecum over every non-Francis in the Colorado rotation for sure, and probably over Francis too. I think the Giants have a more balanced rotation than Cleveland did, and the Indians were only one win from the Series. The Red Sox have a rotation that is pretty formidable; it would take either Cain or Lincecum to progress to a Josh Beckett-level next year to compare, and that is far from a given. Still, I think the Giants' rotation matches up well with most teams in baseball.
- I have no problem ignoring the bullpen question, as random arms emerge every season for whatever teams make the World Series. Other than Jonathan Pabelbon and maybe Brian Fuentes, name one reliever for either World Series team on whom you would have put $5 to have a quality season this year. Exactly. Brian Wilson is the next Manny Corpas, and whatever cadaver the Giants sign is the next Matt Herges. Maybe. Probably not. But stay with me, now....
- Considering the above two points, the Giants are about an average offense and a little luck away from contention.
I know the Giants are as close to an average offense as a complimentary bag of honey-roasted peanuts is to a 747. That minor detail has not gone unnoticed.
I know that any offseason acquisitions to improve the offense will come at the expense of this rotation that, as currently constructed, I claim matches up well with the rest of baseball. And that kind of invalidates the entire first point.
I'm just saying that if the Giants were magically bequeathed an average offense, it wouldn't be completely crazy to hope for them to be the Rockies of 2008. Not likely, but not completely crazy.
My definition of "magically bequeathed": Nate Schierholtz hits 30 homers, the Giants make a lopsided offseason trade, whatever free-agent mistake the Giants make has a career year, Kevin Frandsen exceeds expectations, Bengie Molina hits for even more power, and fifteen of the sixteen center fielders on the roster have fantastic seasons.
Not likely. Not even remotely likely. But not once-in-a-generation implausible.
"So you're telling me there's a chance...."
Comment starter: Forgetting my definition of "magically bequeathed" and substituting your own, do you think the Giants could reach the World Series with the current roster + an average offense? Or would it take an above-average offense and the current pitching staff?
0 recs |
101 comments
Comments
Re: Stop Laughing....
I seldom like Grant's writing, but that one made me chuckle.
As for the question, for an average offense + the current pitching staff to get to the WS, a LOT of things would have to go right/lucky, but it could happen.
by Goofus on Oct 24, 2007 1:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
by southcitysteve on Oct 24, 2007 1:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by southcitysteve on Oct 24, 2007 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by jasomack on Oct 25, 2007 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
I think we are close to having the best starting rotation in the league. Maturity/experience/consistent offense will do a lot to make this happen.
The bullpen should be fine. Wilson may develop into a solid closer. He has the stuff for it.
So in short: Arod + AJones + Aurilia/Durham/whoever unregressing to their norms = playoffs.
Playoffs + winning 7 games = World Series.
by positiveuphemism on Oct 24, 2007 1:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
I should add that saying the word "pythagorean" always makes me start talking like Daffy Duck.
by Evan on Oct 24, 2007 1:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
The problem is getting to 763 runs. That, basically, translates to 3 more runs per week. Without Bonds, it is hard to see how the OF will score more than the '07 OF. It is also hard to see how the '08 IF will not score significantly more runs than the '07 IF. Frandsen, assuming he hits like Sep is a huge improvement over Durham ('07 vintage), but that is probably only 25 runs over the season. Ort could outproduce our multi-layered 1B platoon, say 12 runs. SS is likely to be the same. That is only 37 of the 80 additional runs needed. And virtually all of those have to come from 3b. 3B may give us 15-20, but the rest are going to have to come from defense and the pen.
by allfrank on Oct 24, 2007 10:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
by jponry on Oct 24, 2007 1:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by rotorueter on Oct 24, 2007 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
-If we had two Brian Wilsons in the bullpen (say if Randy Messenger morphed into Wilson2.0)
-If Nate hits .280+ with 25 HR
-If Randy Winn hits just like he did this year
-If Bengie Molina hits just like he did this year
-If Omar returns, maintains stellar defense, and hits no worse than this year
-If Rajai becomes the main lead-off guy and maintains a .375 OBP
-If Kevin Frandsen bats 2nd, plays 2nd, and hits the .285 I think he can, with occasional power
-If Sabean magically trades Lowry/Sanchez/Misch (no more than 2 of those guys) for a power-hitting corner infielder
-If the remaining corner infielder (Feliz, Ortmeier) can be semi-league-average offensively (okay, if Dan can be that)
-If Durham will happily be our super pinch-hitter
-If Dave Roberts accepts a trade, anywhere, for anyone (and I like him, we just don't need him)
-If the remaining Lowry/Sanchez/Misch pitcher doesn't suck while in the rotation with Cain, Lincecum, Zicasso, & Whomever
Well, yeah, sure, we could contend. And I could date Jessica Alba next year. But my wife thinks both ideas are hilarious, and highly unlikely.
What is more likely, imho, is that Brian Sabean solves the Giants' problems by signing an expensive FA relief pitcher like Linebrink, buries Rajai and Freddie on the bench in favor of Roberts, trades Sanchez and Henry Sosa for Corey Koskie, and names Cammie Blackstone as the replacement Assistant GM.
by Lyle on Oct 24, 2007 1:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
It'll take an above average offense, IMO. Pretty much every team in the NL West is in a better position to contend than we are right now, and it'd take some amazing moves by Sabean to get us anywhere close to them.
LA has some ridiculously good young talent, and they can trade some of it for premier players that could instantly make them World Series favorites.
The Rockies are emerging as a solid team with an unbelievable offense, and some decent pitchers might actually not mind going to pitch for them, if they feel the Rockies could make another run.
Arizona, well, they have a crapload of talent and can get a premier player easily . . .making them serious players for the NL West crown once again.
San Diego . . .oh. Well, they're not that good. They're kind of like us, just, you know, with a good bullpen and a more developed pitching staff.
So while we might be able to improve on what we had this past year, and most likely will, it's more likely for the other NL West clubs to make deals that'll get them to the Playoffs faster than it would for us.
by Anticon23 on Oct 24, 2007 2:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
by howtheyscored on Oct 24, 2007 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by Jakespaar on Oct 24, 2007 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
> not that good. They're kind of
> like us
Now that The Big Guy is gone, I can't think of a Giant I'd bet don't have a better season at the plate than Mr. Anger (Bradley) or Spicoli (Green), not to mention Adrian Gonzales.
Plus, we're not EN FUEGO!! (sorry - couldn't resist).
by SnowLeopard on Oct 24, 2007 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
Roberts must be moved
Davis must perform to at least a .350+ OBP
Schierholtz/Lewis have to step it up, they will be crucial
Molina must repeat offensively
Frandsen must be around .275/.330/.390
If Vizquel's brought back he's got to be similar to Frandsen offensively
Feliz must be .250+.300.470, and I don't think this is impossible either
And Sabean's got to get creative to bring in a power theat at 1B.
by cain1rstballothof on Oct 24, 2007 2:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
by Kitspool on Oct 24, 2007 2:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by Goofus on Oct 24, 2007 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
Darryl > Ryan by a thousand million. Well, anyone is better than Ryan, but Darryl is made of awesome to begin with. Major upgrade for Kelly.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 24, 2007 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by groug on Oct 24, 2007 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by Natto on Oct 24, 2007 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by Goofus on Oct 24, 2007 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by UnleashTheGore on Oct 24, 2007 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 24, 2007 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
Of course the answer was simple: it was taking up space on the TIVO and we were in the midst of an uneventful Friday evening.
by UnleashTheGore on Oct 24, 2007 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
Also, the word "electrolytes" now makes me giggle to myself.
by groug on Oct 24, 2007 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by Goofus on Oct 24, 2007 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by Goofus on Oct 24, 2007 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
- Ryan is one of the head writers. So he's basically making himself a douche, it's pretty funny.
- Kelly is a producer. Still don't know what they do. But her fashion/trends obsessions crack me up, made funnier by the fact that she's probably brighter than her character.
by JRPhillips on Oct 24, 2007 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by groug on Oct 24, 2007 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 24, 2007 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by UnleashTheGore on Oct 24, 2007 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by JRPhillips on Oct 24, 2007 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by UnleashTheGore on Oct 24, 2007 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
And yes, AD was better than The Office. For my money, it was the best comedy since Seinfeld. I still mourn its passing.
by JRPhillips on Oct 24, 2007 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
Seriously, though, I'm about the biggest Seinfeld nut there is, and after watching AD I go back and forth between which was better. Seinfeld found humor in every-day behavior, but AD is so damn clever.
by UnleashTheGore on Oct 24, 2007 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
I rule them equal.
Had AD been on longer it would win, but 2.5 seasons of awesome is not as good as 5 seasons of awesome.
But...
Seinfeld doesn't really get going till season 3. The first two seasons aren't special at all. Even season 3 is just pretty good. Seasons 4 is where it became awesome. AD was awesome from episode one.
There is one other show that I feel ranks up there with those two...Red Dwarf. The first six seasons are as good as anything.
by positiveuphemism on Oct 24, 2007 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
It's crazy to me that Fox has ended so many great shows in recent memory. They might not have gotten the mass appeal they'd like, but imagine if they had AD, Undeclared, Firefly, Andy Richter Controls the Universe, and Greg the Bunny as some flagship shows. I miss them all. I particularly miss A Magician Named GOB.
by JRPhillips on Oct 24, 2007 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by UnleashTheGore on Oct 25, 2007 7:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by JRPhillips on Oct 25, 2007 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by oldjacket on Oct 24, 2007 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
I used to hate his character, and Kelly too. Now I love when Ryan shows up, because he gets owned every single time he's on camera. Kelly torturing him is one of my new favorite things about the Office.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 24, 2007 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by UnleashTheGore on Oct 24, 2007 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 24, 2007 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by Goofus on Oct 24, 2007 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by UnleashTheGore on Oct 24, 2007 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by UnleashTheGore on Oct 24, 2007 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by Goofus on Oct 24, 2007 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by UnleashTheGore on Oct 24, 2007 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
It makes sense to me.
by groug on Oct 24, 2007 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by jponry on Oct 24, 2007 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by UnleashTheGore on Oct 24, 2007 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by groug on Oct 24, 2007 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by UnleashTheGore on Oct 24, 2007 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by Moderation on Oct 24, 2007 2:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
by Goofus on Oct 24, 2007 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Either a toast to an ass, or a trip to New York
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
by hairball on Oct 24, 2007 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Either a toast to an ass,
by Moderation on Oct 24, 2007 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
by Woody Wins on Oct 24, 2007 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
- Lowry, Nate, and a prospect net us Jason Bay and he bounces back
- Ray Durham bounces back to an .800-.840 OPS level as he's been in the past. same with Zito
- We sign Morgan Ensberg and he bounces back to a .275/.370/.475 level
- We find adequate production out of SS either via trade (Lugo, Ronny Cedeno perhaps) or via Japan (Nioka). I could see Nioka putting up a .275/.325/.410
- Rajai/Lewis platoon works well. Lewis his .275/.360/.430 in his split and Rajai hits .289/.366/.380 in his split. They steal 40 bags between the two of them.
- Bengie can come close to his 2006+07 levels
- At 1B we trade for a Sexson salary dump and hope he can bounce back to a .260/.350/.525 level OR trade for Nick Johnson and hope he can stay healthy
- Brian Wilson emerges as a dominant reliever like he showed he could be last year
- Either sign Gagne or Billy Sadler needs to gain command of the strike zone and become a great reliever
- Correia needs to be able to give us 200 innings of 3.80-4.25 ERA ball. I think he can do it
If all that happened, we'd have a great chance at our division and any team that makes the playoffs has a shot at a WS ring
by NeifiChicken on Oct 24, 2007 2:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
Lugo? Adequate? Apparently you haven't been watching the Sox this year.
by UnleashTheGore on Oct 24, 2007 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
The idea with Lugo is his poor year and contract make his value low and we hope for a rebound, which is likely. Similar to what ATL did with BOS when they got Renteria, except Renteria wasn't as bad as Lugo and we'd absorb more money because we dont have an Andy Marte to trade
by NeifiChicken on Oct 24, 2007 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
Sexson is owed $14M in 2008.
Jason Bay is owed $13M ( $5.75M in 08, $7.5M in 09). All salary data from Cot's.
That's almost $30M for one year. I'd rather see the "kids" play for that kind of money. I don;t see those particular players adding much more value on the field than our current crop of "unknowns". Now..if there are GM's that would take Winn,Roberts and Durham ?
by nvsfg on Oct 24, 2007 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
- If we have to give up that much for Jason Bay, I'll pass...8 days a week.
- Durham's career OPS is .787, so even a "bounce back" wouldn't put him near your expectations.
- Ensberg seems like the poster-child for HGH.
- I'd pass on Cedeno, Lugo is intriguing, know nothing about Nioka.
- That's fine, now we have to unload Roberts.
- Bengie: If you are gonna step up to the plate over 500 times in a season, you MUST have more than 15 walks.
- Sexson would be a mighty gamble, but I'm not totally opposed. Johnson would be ok but he may be a long way from returning.
- I hope so.
- I hope you're kidding.
- Correia's my dawg. I hope he can do even better than your prediction!
by Woody Wins on Oct 24, 2007 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
B) In his 13 year career, durham has posted an OPS over .800 8 times. 3 of the 5 times he failed to post one were the first 3 years of his career, which makes sense as power comes more in the mid to late 20s. The other two times were last yea (which was horrible we all know) and 2005 where he missed an .800 OPS by .15 points. Even if it is just to his career average, that's productive
C) Obviously Roberts has t be unloaded, but that shouldn't be that hard if we eat half his salary. Sure, that's a big waste of money, but it's cutting our losses fine if you ask me. A few teams would be willing to take Roberts at 50% off his salary.
by NeifiChicken on Oct 24, 2007 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
B) Durham ain't gettin any younger/better. We'd be LUCKY if he posted anything near his career average OPS.
C) Which teams?
by Woody Wins on Oct 25, 2007 6:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
- my money's on Durham having less that 300 PAs in the MLB left in him, and they'll be under .600 OPS
- We don't need a big name 1B. As I've said so many times before - Carlos Pena, Tony Clark, Hee Sop Choi, Jack Cust, many others - every year, there's a bunch of guys like that available for the cheap. I think that the biggest block to us getting 300 TB out of 1B next year is not that we'd need to trade Lowry for it, or sign someone at $15M/yr, but because Sabean apparently has it in his head that, first and foremost, 1B is a high-importance defensive position.
by SnowLeopard on Oct 24, 2007 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
I'm not saying we can't take a flyer on somebody, but Hee is the likely outcome. Now if Tony Clark wasn't needed in the desert...
by Lyle on Oct 25, 2007 6:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Choi isn't the only 1b / DH type
Sabean is the GM. Either he or one of his assistants should be trawling the waiver wires, digging through the minor league stats to look for players like this. These guys are cheap. Sign a couple of them to spring training and see what sticks.
by rfloh on Oct 25, 2007 7:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: But Choi isn't the only 1b / DH type
We've only gotten more than 265 TB out of 1B once in past seven years, and that's when we got a pretty sweet 312 TB out of Snow, Feliz, and Minor in 2004.
2007 256
2006 257
2005 250
2004 312
2003 265
2002 226
2001 233
2000 276
1999 293
1998 276
1997 284
1996 247
1995 267
It's not that hard to find a AAAA non-All-Star guy (or a platoon of 'em) to mash out 290 or 300 TB for you, give you a middle of the order presence, while munging some throws across the infield. But again, Sabean seems to value to glove at first, and seems to keep experimenting with middle infielders (Aurilia, Kent, Vizcaino, etc) there.
by SnowLeopard on Oct 25, 2007 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
If he strikes out swinging at a bad pitch:
"What Seop with that?"
or, "What was Hee thinking?" "Shush, Hee knows what Hee's doing".
When he does something good, it's spreading Choi throughout Giantsland."
by Goofus on Oct 25, 2007 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
by howtheyscored on Oct 25, 2007 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by howtheyscored on Oct 24, 2007 2:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by Anticon23 on Oct 24, 2007 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
I have a signed copy.
by howtheyscored on Oct 24, 2007 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm glad you cleared that up
by Jakespaar on Oct 24, 2007 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
But even that needs an offense.
by howtheyscored on Oct 24, 2007 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
by Jakespaar on Oct 24, 2007 4:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
1)Scierholtz, Fransden and Davis/Lewis play much better than expected.
2)Vizquel is resigned
3)Roberts is traded to Boston for a bag of peanuts
4)Lowry and Hennesey traded to Seattle for Jeff Clement and Richie Sexson
5)Bengie Molina for Lastings Milledge
6)Sanchez and Winn (eat part of his salary) to KC for Mark Teahen (move him back to 3rd)
7)Wilson becomes a dominent closer
8)Our young pitchers become even better than last year
9)Zito come back to his all-star form
10)Sabean does some type of magic to get these trades done
Davis/Lewis CF
Milledge LF
Teahen 3b
Sexson 1b
Schierholtz RF
Clement C
Vizquel SS
Fransden 2b
Cain, Linc, Zito, Mische, Correia
Wilson
by krazybalr on Oct 24, 2007 4:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
by thehavenot on Oct 24, 2007 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
by Lyle on Oct 25, 2007 6:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
honestly, this team just needs to finally start this rebuilding process. Start the kids, stop signing high (over)priced free agents and built up the minor leagues. this process will take a couple years and maybe less if we get lucky. Thankfully we do have the pitching that will definately help us through this period!
by krazybalr on Oct 25, 2007 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
by Lyle on Oct 25, 2007 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Grant's crazy
Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy
by hairball on Oct 24, 2007 4:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
I would then think to myself "The corners are key." Because the corners are key. The middle is pretty much adequate going into next year. Bengie at C, Durham/Frandsen at 2b, Vizquel desperately wants to flash his prime glove and his over the hill bat at SS, and Rajai/Freddie are our CF, with Randy Winn as a backup if things don't go well and Roberts as the super-emergency backup if things really don't go well.
The corners are the key. Thankfully, that's where impact bats are easier to find. I then attempt to get three (or more) of Sexson, Burrell, Ensberg, Dunn, Kent (1b), Abreu, M. Bradley, Cameron (LF or RF), Clilff Floyd, Fukudome, Jenkins, A. Jones (no more than 3 years with the intention to move him to a corner), and Mike Lowell (no more than 2 years, which would probably mean the end of any realistic shot at him). I would get as many as I can realistically for as cheaply as I can.
I then let Schierholtz play himself out of the starting RF spot.
I then pray.
by thehavenot on Oct 24, 2007 5:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
by zenbitz on Oct 25, 2007 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
Anyways, besides the 3rd base problem, several of those guys (Cameron, A. Jones, Jenkens, Lowell) are allergic to walks. And while Abreu, Dunn, Ensberg, Burrell and Fukudome all are good at drawing walks, they each have issues of varying degrees.
Best case scenario, I would say, is for the Reds to not pick up Dunn's option. The Giants sign him to play LF. Sexson comes fairly cheaply (either money or talent wise) in a trade. And 3rd base is covered by resigning Feliz to a one year contract (his defense and the lack of other options makes this justifiable). Plus the Giants get Ensberg for cheap. Either that or they get really lucky and Durham bounces back and then we put Frandsen at third. Or that crazy Kent idea...
I still doubt that one of those combinations makes us a league average offense. But if things go well, it's at least possible. And we aren't really that hamstrung for the future.
I would still shoot for 2009 if it were up to me.
by thehavenot on Oct 26, 2007 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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by nostocksjustbonds on Oct 24, 2007 5:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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R CF Davis .290/.365/.395, 65 SBs
L RF Lewis .285/.375/.435
R 3B A-Rod .300/.415/.615
L RF Nate .300/.345/.505
B 1B Ort .275/.320/.500
R C Benji .285/.305/.450
R SS Lilli .275/.350/.425, 40 SBs
R 2B Frand .285/.345/.395
Cain 3.12 ERA
Linc 3.19
Zito 3.70
Corr 3.85
Sanc 3.90
Wlsn 2.25, 50 SVs
*Winn to the Braves for Lillibridge.
**Lowry to the Dodgers for Dewitt and Bell
by Dan from NM on Oct 24, 2007 7:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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by howtheyscored on Oct 24, 2007 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
Sure our pitching is playoff quality (Zito will be better now that he's seen the league), but we need some power. If not power, then gap hitters. Right now all we have are contact hitters, and they aren't even that good. The only way this would be possible would be to offload Durham, Roberts and/or Winn and in order to do that, we'd need to eat a lot of money in trades and Magowan won't go above 90M.
Trust me, the grass is greener in 2009.
by BCsteve on Oct 24, 2007 8:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Stop Laughing....
There is N-O way the Giants are going to sniff the play-offs with its offense or its bullpen...especially when one compares the Giants to the other (improving and young) teams in the NL West. And the Wild Card? No, not that either.
Pretty funny though.
by Kent on Oct 24, 2007 8:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
I believe that was kind of the point. If EVERYTHING went right for the Royals, too, they would make the playoffs. It's hyperbolic, yes, but not so hyperbolic that Royal's fans still don't get vaguely excited for games 1-15 every year.
Might as well use our imaginations. I mean, it made life bearable for the Muppet Babies, and they were basically imprisoned by a croddy old woman who locked them in a tiny room with a few toys and fed them flavorless gruel twice a day.
by howtheyscored on Oct 24, 2007 9:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
...Actually, I don't think the Royals would win the World Series even if "everything" went right.
by Kent on Oct 24, 2007 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
by howtheyscored on Oct 24, 2007 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not Laughing....
I agree that they are close, but that it would take something that I would call a miracle - Durham and Vizquel returning to their norms - to happen.
According to the ZiPS projections for average position hitting, I think the Giants are around average for a number of positions. And this is where mechanical projections fail: they don't account for circumstances. Roberts hit very well after he got his surgery, nearly that of the average LF - close enough for me because we want him for his OBP anyway, not his SLG. Same with Winn, the ZiPS prediction is below the level he has hit in the past 5 seasons.
Rajai Davis showed that with regular play he could hit around what a CF hits, but even if he doesn't, we move Winn to CF, where he'll be above average hitting, and play Lewis or Schierholtz in RF, where either would be similarly below average hitting, evening things out in the OF.
Ortmeier looks like he can hit, but below average for a 1B, but if Durham can hit above average for a 2B, then that evens out as well. Then we need average production from SS and 3B. I think that Frandsen can produce around an average 3B.
But I don't think Durham can hit above average again as a 2B, so I'm hoping he has a hot streak in spring and we can unload him somewhere and play Frandsen there, but then he'll probably about average for 2B, with no balance off against Ort at 1B.
And I don't think Vizquel or whoever we get for SS, can hit like the average SS.
And I don't know why Molina is dissed above, it is not like he hit unusually for the past 5 seasons in 2007, he was solidly within that range and I think he can easily be average, if not above, as the C. So I don't see why he can't repeat, it is not like it was some sort of miracle season.
And he might have hit better if he didn't play so many games, he played more games than he ever played and had more ABs, so he might have tired a bit during the season. If you look at his monthly hitting, his hitting went down the month after he played more games than usual and had over 90 ABs. Small sample and all that, but still, he played more than he usually did.
Pretty much average around the board (which is supported by the Giants averaging 4.6 runs when Barry didn't start the game) with some unders. That's why I've been saying that the Giants probably will not be competitive in 2008 unless we totally luck out and get A-Rod to play SS for us in 2008 and beyond.
And the way I see it, Boras would be an idiot to opt out, really, the Yankees are the only team that can afford A-Rod's $25-30M salary easily, even the Red Sox would choke on that (hence why the deal to send him to Boston had him taking a pay cut originally). No opt out, no A-Rod playing SS for the Giants.
And please, no Lowell with his contract year run, I'm tired of seeing such final hurrah's in hitting (Robby Thompson's last contract was a major contributor to our mid-90's collapse, as much as Matt William's injuries.) get rewarded and then performance stinks for the contract.
But he's about the only chance of improving the overall offense.
Just bite the bullet, improve the team with a strategic trade of Lowry somewhere optimized to leverage the other team into giving up more prospects than normal, and shoot for 2009 when our young aces should be mature enough to lead us, much like where Peavy/Young is right now, and our bullpen should be more solid, with Wilson heading it up as closer.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 24, 2007 10:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
step 2: A trade of Lowry (+prospect?) for a young hitter who has some obvious flaws in his game which are then corrected somehow when he arrives in SF, becoming a second, legitimate bat for the middle of the lineup, complementing ARod (e.g. Chris Duncan of the Cards comes over to play 1B, and learns how to hit lefties once given the chance to be an everyday player-- suddenly, he's a 40 hr guy, who's d is maybe not so much of a liability at first)
step 3: Cain and Lincecum each take their respective next steps-- Cain becoming a legit staff ace, reliable in virtually every single game (ie more consistency), while Lincecum has more ups and fewer downs all while learning to cope with the major league innings totals
step 4: Zito has some sort of a bounceback season and is a respectable 2nd guy in the rotation
step 5: Brian Wilson-- lockdown closer
step 6: another bp arm develops into a great 8th inning guy, doesn't really matter whether it's Messenger, Hennessey, or a FA signing/trade
step 7: two of the following (preferably 3) enjoy reasonable levels of success and become legit everyday players: Fred Lewis, Rajai Davis, Nate Schierholtz, Kevin Frandsen
step 8: either Ray Durham bounces back, or Sabes manages to bamboozle somebody into giving us something useful for him
If all those things happened, you'd have a + rotation, especially at the top end (maybe better depending on how Correia, Misch, Sanchez do in the bottom half), a solid bullpen, and a possibly above average offense. I think you'd need at least that to have a chance at the division. Really the NL West competition should all get better over the next couple of years, so it's not enough for the Giants to get good enough to win the division that was in 2007, they need to beat teams that are going to be loaded with future superstars like Tulo, Kemp, Chris Young, etc.
by Smoke on the Water on Oct 25, 2007 1:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: Stop Laughing....
My plan included something about dealing with the O's for Tejada, and a salary dump to get Wilson from the Pirates (for Roberts), who would be a significant upgrade over Vizquel if he plays like he did this past year, plus keeping Klesko to platoon with Ortmeier (also as insurance/power off the bench), trading Frandsen and signing Iguchi at 2B, and then I realized that this offense was MAYBE as good as 2007.
I keep writing these long paragraphs and erasing them. It's hopeless.
by jasomack on Oct 25, 2007 11:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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