I seldom like Grant's writing, but that one made me chuckle.

As for the question, for an average offense + the current pitching staff to get to the WS, a LOT of things would have to go right/lucky, but it could happen.

I think we are close to having the best starting rotation in the league.  Maturity/experience/consistent offense will do a lot to make this happen.  

The bullpen should be fine.  Wilson may develop into a solid closer.  He has the stuff for it.

So in short: Arod + AJones + Aurilia/Durham/whoever unregressing to their norms  = playoffs.

Playoffs + winning 7 games = World Series.

It'll take an above average offense, IMO.  Pretty much every team in the NL West is in a better position to contend than we are right now, and it'd take some amazing moves by Sabean to get us anywhere close to them.

LA has some ridiculously good young talent, and they can trade some of it for premier players that could instantly make them World Series favorites.

The Rockies are emerging as a solid team with an unbelievable offense, and some decent pitchers might actually not mind going to pitch for them, if they feel the Rockies could make another run.

Arizona, well, they have a crapload of talent and can get a premier player easily . . .making them serious players for the NL West crown once again.

San Diego . . .oh.  Well, they're not that good.  They're kind of like us, just, you know, with a good bullpen and a more developed pitching staff.

So while we might be able to improve on what we had this past year, and most likely will, it's more likely for the other NL West clubs to make deals that'll get them to the Playoffs faster than it would for us.

Roberts must be moved
Davis must perform to at least a .350+ OBP
Schierholtz/Lewis have to step it up, they will be crucial
Molina must repeat offensively
Frandsen must be around .275/.330/.390
If Vizquel's brought back he's got to be similar to Frandsen offensively
Feliz must be .250+.300.470, and I don't think this is impossible either
And Sabean's got to get creative to bring in a power theat at 1B.

1. Lowry, Nate, and a prospect net us Jason Bay and he bounces back
   
2. Ray Durham bounces back to an .800-.840 OPS level as he's been in the past. same with Zito
   
3. We sign Morgan Ensberg and he bounces back to a .275/.370/.475 level
   
4. We find adequate production out of SS either via trade (Lugo, Ronny Cedeno perhaps) or via Japan (Nioka). I could see Nioka putting up a .275/.325/.410
   
5. Rajai/Lewis platoon works well. Lewis his .275/.360/.430 in his split and Rajai hits .289/.366/.380 in his split. They steal 40 bags between the two of them.
   
6. Bengie can come close to his 2006+07 levels
   
7. At 1B we trade for a Sexson salary dump and hope he can bounce back to a .260/.350/.525 level  OR trade for Nick Johnson and hope he can stay healthy
   
8. Brian Wilson emerges as a dominant reliever like he showed he could be last year
   
9. Either sign Gagne or Billy Sadler needs to gain command of the strike zone and become a great reliever
   
10. Correia needs to be able to give us 200 innings of 3.80-4.25 ERA ball. I think he can do it

If all that happened, we'd have a great chance at our division and any team that makes the playoffs has a shot at a WS ring

I would then think to myself "The corners are key."  Because the corners are key.  The middle is pretty much adequate going into next year.  Bengie at C, Durham/Frandsen at 2b, Vizquel desperately wants to flash his prime glove and his over the hill bat at SS, and Rajai/Freddie are our CF, with Randy Winn as a backup if things don't go well and Roberts as the super-emergency backup if things really don't go well.  

The corners are the key.  Thankfully, that's where impact bats are easier to find.  I then attempt to get three (or more) of Sexson, Burrell, Ensberg, Dunn, Kent (1b), Abreu, M. Bradley, Cameron (LF or RF), Clilff Floyd, Fukudome, Jenkins, A. Jones (no more than 3 years with the intention to move him to a corner), and Mike Lowell (no more than 2 years, which would probably mean the end of any realistic shot at him).  I would get as many as I can realistically for as cheaply as I can.

I then let Schierholtz play himself out of the starting RF spot.

I then pray.

R CF Davis .290/.365/.395, 65 SBs
L RF Lewis .285/.375/.435
R 3B A-Rod .300/.415/.615
L RF Nate  .300/.345/.505
B 1B Ort   .275/.320/.500
R C  Benji .285/.305/.450
R SS Lilli .275/.350/.425, 40 SBs
R 2B Frand .285/.345/.395

Cain 3.12 ERA
Linc 3.19
Zito 3.70
Corr 3.85
Sanc 3.90

Wlsn 2.25, 50 SVs

*Winn to the Braves for Lillibridge.
**Lowry to the Dodgers for Dewitt and Bell

I agree that they are close, but that it would take something that I would call a miracle - Durham and Vizquel returning to their norms - to happen.

According to the ZiPS projections for average position hitting, I think the Giants are around average for a number of positions.  And this is where mechanical projections fail:  they don't account for circumstances.  Roberts hit very well after he got his surgery, nearly that of the average LF - close enough for me because we want him for his OBP anyway, not his SLG.  Same with Winn, the ZiPS prediction is below the level he has hit in the past 5 seasons.

Rajai Davis showed that with regular play he could hit around what a CF hits, but even if he doesn't, we move Winn to CF, where he'll be above average hitting, and play Lewis or Schierholtz in RF, where either would be similarly below average hitting, evening things out in the OF.

Ortmeier looks like he can hit, but below average for a 1B, but if Durham can hit above average for a 2B, then that evens out as well.  Then we need average production from SS and 3B.  I think that Frandsen can produce around an average 3B.

But I don't think Durham can hit above average again as a 2B, so I'm hoping he has a hot streak in spring and we can unload him somewhere and play Frandsen there, but then he'll probably about average for 2B, with no balance off against Ort at 1B.

And I don't think Vizquel or whoever we get for SS, can hit like the average SS.

And I don't know why Molina is dissed above, it is not like he hit unusually for the past 5 seasons in 2007, he was solidly within that range and I think he can easily be average, if not above, as the C.  So I don't see why he can't repeat, it is not like it was some sort of miracle season.

And he might have hit better if he didn't play so many games, he played more games than he ever played and had more ABs, so he might have tired a bit during the season.  If you look at his monthly hitting, his hitting went down the month after he played more games than usual and had over 90 ABs.  Small sample and all that, but still, he played more than he usually did.

Pretty much average around the board (which is supported by the Giants averaging 4.6 runs when Barry didn't start the game) with some unders.  That's why I've been saying that the Giants probably will not be competitive in 2008 unless we totally luck out and get A-Rod to play SS for us in 2008 and beyond.

And the way I see it, Boras would be an idiot to opt out, really, the Yankees are the only team that can afford A-Rod's $25-30M salary easily, even the Red Sox would choke on that (hence why the deal to send him to Boston had him taking a pay cut originally).  No opt out, no A-Rod playing SS for the Giants.

And please, no Lowell with his contract year run, I'm tired of seeing such final hurrah's in hitting (Robby Thompson's last contract was a major contributor to our mid-90's collapse, as much as Matt William's injuries.) get rewarded and then performance stinks for the contract.

But he's about the only chance of improving the overall offense.

Just bite the bullet, improve the team with a strategic trade of Lowry somewhere optimized to leverage the other team into giving up more prospects than normal, and shoot for 2009 when our young aces should be mature enough to lead us, much like where Peavy/Young is right now, and our bullpen should be more solid, with Wilson heading it up as closer.

step 2: A trade of Lowry (+prospect?) for a young hitter who has some obvious flaws in his game which are then corrected somehow when he arrives in SF, becoming a second, legitimate bat for the middle of the lineup, complementing ARod (e.g. Chris Duncan of the Cards comes over to play 1B, and learns how to hit lefties once given the chance to be an everyday player-- suddenly, he's a 40 hr guy, who's d is maybe not so much of a liability at first)

step 3: Cain and Lincecum each take their respective next steps-- Cain becoming a legit staff ace, reliable in virtually every single game (ie more consistency), while Lincecum has more ups and fewer downs all while learning to cope with the major league innings totals

step 4: Zito has some sort of a bounceback season and is a respectable 2nd guy in the rotation

step 5: Brian Wilson-- lockdown closer

step 6: another bp arm develops into a great 8th inning guy, doesn't really matter whether it's Messenger, Hennessey, or a FA signing/trade

step 7: two of the following (preferably 3) enjoy reasonable levels of success and become legit everyday players: Fred Lewis, Rajai Davis, Nate Schierholtz, Kevin Frandsen

step 8: either Ray Durham bounces back, or Sabes manages to bamboozle somebody into giving us something useful for him

If all those things happened, you'd have a + rotation, especially at the top end (maybe better depending on how Correia, Misch, Sanchez do in the bottom half), a solid bullpen, and a possibly above average offense.  I think you'd need at least that to have a chance at the division.  Really the NL West competition should all get better over the next couple of years, so it's not enough for the Giants to get good enough to win the division that was in 2007, they need to beat teams that are going to be loaded with future superstars like Tulo, Kemp, Chris Young, etc.