Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

by southcitysteve on Oct 2, 2007 4:34 PM PDT Comment 47 comments

Who will be the first to win a Cy Young?

Which one will lead the league in SOs for the next 5 years?

How many no-hitters/perfectos will each get?

Will one of them pitch 10 innings and record 30 Ks?

Despite everything that sucks about the Giants, I love thinking about how good these two will be. Talks of trading them really piss me off because these guys are both fuckin' studly and to have both of them is pretty damn lucky. The question is though: Who will end up having the better career?

Cain: He's an absolute horse and has the best mental makeup for a ballplayer I have ever seen. He is developing his pitches and growing as a pitcher every game, and is starting to develop a warrior-like persona. He's going to win a Cy Young someday and if the Giants start scoring some runs for him, he could be a 20-game winner.

Lincecum: He arguably has better stuff than Cain but may be more prone to injury. Will probably have a higher career strikeout rate but less IPs. Every time he takes the mound there is a chance of a no-hitter or something else spectacular happening. He may be the most enjoyable pitcher to watch.

My pick: Cain. He's got the eye of the tiger going, will be much more durable and will age better than Lincecum. Although Timmy's probably more fun to watch.

Poll

Who will have the better career?

Matt Cain

95 votes

Tim Lincecum

78 votes

Other Giants' pitcher

3 votes

176 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Cain, because he's my boy and he's my favorite.

I think they're going to be a double edged sword of awesome though.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Oct 2, 2007 4:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

I am more certain every day that one will not be a Giant at some point in the next 2 years. The Giants have too much of a good thing in the young pitching department, and not enough of a good thing in the young hitting department. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out how to balance those scales. Patience and wisdom would allow us to keep both and develop the hitters at the same time, but this club ain't exactly a bastion of patience and wisdom.

***

Succumb to the Enchanted t-shirt! Adopted dad of Minor Izzy

by hairball on Oct 3, 2007 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

A lot will depend on how '08 goes. If it goes real bad than I will agree with you.

Can't w8 for '08!

by southcitysteve on Oct 3, 2007 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

what are you talking about? They're both gonna win 300 games and be Hall of Famers!

Bonds stands alone.

by nostocksjustbonds on Oct 2, 2007 4:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Damn I should have added that as a 4th option.

Can't w8 for '08!

by southcitysteve on Oct 2, 2007 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Then again that would have eliminated the need for debate so nevermind. Pick one!!

Can't w8 for '08!

by southcitysteve on Oct 2, 2007 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

there's no debate!

Bonds stands alone.

by nostocksjustbonds on Oct 3, 2007 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Cain - 58 votes
Lincecum - 45 votes

I'd say that means there's room for debate.

Can't w8 for '08!

by southcitysteve on Oct 3, 2007 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

I see Tim as a future Hall of Famer. I see Matt as a future All-Star with a chance at becoming a Hall of Famer.

If either player is traded this winter, I think it would more likely be Tim. If either player is traded a year from now or later, I think it would more likely be Matt.

by sharksrog on Oct 8, 2007 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Unfortunately it might come down to which one becomes the better hitter (if they stay in SF).

by seyheystretch on Oct 2, 2007 4:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

In that case, Cain wins it as a proven power hitter.

SJ Giants, 2007 Cal League champs! Couldn't have done it without the All-Father.

by EliminateMe on Oct 2, 2007 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

"Matt Cain" - eight letters
"Babe Ruth" - eight letters

Coincidence? I think not!

World Series prediction: Cleveland over Chicago in six games. (I guess I'm still Klesko's adoptive pop; they gypsies weren't interested.)

by Goofus on Oct 2, 2007 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

One goes onto an Eck-like career: equally awesome as a starter and a closer. The other goes onto a right-handed Randy Johnson, still dealin' into his forties.

Not boring: Emmanuel Burriss: Not fascist: SF Dugout. Not boring nor fascist: CLE winning the World Series.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 2, 2007 5:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Gotta pick timmy. No control issues, strikes out a ton.

and you think he won't age well? The kid is twelve, he still has a while before he hits the downslope.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 2, 2007 7:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

No control issues? I love Tim, but he had a higher BB/9 than Matt did (3.99 to 3.55). I would say both of our awesome young pitchers still has significant control issues.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Oct 3, 2007 2:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

point taken.

Matt Cain definitely brought it down last year. But i guess i didn't listen to enough of timmy's games this year. I don't think i ever listened to one of his bad starts outside of his first one.

But thank you for putting me in my place. Who do you think has a better chance to correct his control problems?

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 3, 2007 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Tim had a lot of starts where his control was very good... I think he just needs to be more consistent (lol Joe Morgan) from start to start. Maybe improve his focus?

I think it's pretty impressive how much Cain improved his walk rate over the course of the year (only 2.79 in the second half!) I really think he took a big step forward in the second half this year.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.

by jponry on Oct 3, 2007 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Agree on both points. I am surprised at how high Tim's walk rate actually is.

But i hope they will both be dominant, unmatchable forces for years to come.

Pedro Feliz: Marginally better this year.

by SloIsLonelyForTheOrange on Oct 3, 2007 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Tim seemed to have his most troubles when pitching out of the stretch.

World Series prediction: Cleveland over Chicago in six games. (I guess I'm still Klesko's adoptive pop; they gypsies weren't interested.)

by Goofus on Oct 4, 2007 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

IMO the key to whether Tim becomes "merely" an All-Star pitcher or a Hall of Famer is tied to his control. I would hope he is working with something like young hockey players use to learn to shoot at the numbered holes.

In Tim's case, he would pitch to the one-, two-, three- and four-holes -- inside and outside at the knees and above the hands.

I was impressed with Matt's outstanding control at the end of the season after struggling mightily before that. I don't think Matt has the ceiling Tim has, but if Matt's control remains good, he can certainly be quite good.

by sharksrog on Oct 8, 2007 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have the end all solution to this.

Matt Cain Facts

Vs.

Tim Lincecum Facts

There was no debate before this point. Now we can really get into the nitty gritty.

On the one hand: "Kaiser Soze is afraid of Matt Cain." On the other hand: "Every virile man is afraid of Tim Lincecum."

The debate rages.

Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Oct 2, 2007 9:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

was this poll created by one of the mlb.com editors???

fuck this poll

want a good poll??

who's gonna shave first?

100 bux to the first person to post a pic of timmy with any sort of facial hair

by bacci40 on Oct 3, 2007 1:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Duuuuuuuude. Calm down.

Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Oct 3, 2007 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Wowo. This coming from the guy who thinks Andruw Jones is going to the Twins. You sir, are grumpy and wrong about most things. Matt Cain already has more facial hair than you, its just blond.

Can't w8 for '08!

by southcitysteve on Oct 3, 2007 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

when andru goes to the twinkies...will you apologize to me?

by bacci40 on Oct 3, 2007 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

after I get my toilet made out of solid gold, sure.

Can't w8 for '08!

by southcitysteve on Oct 3, 2007 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

I don't know if that would be a very good investment, actually.

Oh, I get it. You're just trying to stay in-theme.

Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Oct 3, 2007 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

"I'll install ANY solid gold toilet for only $1,139.95."

Guaranteed.

All is said and done , so... Let's Go Phillies!! (Kiss my heinie , Clint.)

by victor frankenstein on Oct 3, 2007 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Cain = Roger Clemens
Lincecum = Pedro Martinez

Glad to have both.

Benitez: All Balk, no Bite.

by BondOrBust on Oct 3, 2007 10:16 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

I hope Cain doesn't become the fat jackass Clemens is, both fat in bodily girth and fat in magnitude of jackassery. He can have the other stuff Clemens has though: the Cy Young awards, 300 wins, all that fun stuff.

Not boring: Emmanuel Burriss: Not fascist: SF Dugout. Not boring nor fascist: CLE winning the World Series.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 3, 2007 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Roger Clemens is the best pitcher in baseball history.

by zenbitz on Oct 3, 2007 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

To be honest, I believe that Greg Maddux is greatest pitcher of my generation, but necessarily history. And Roger Clemens is a close second.

I know in most areas the statistics don't necessarily support this assertion (depending on how you use them), but I will always believe that Maddux was a much better pitcher than anybody I've ever seen.

Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Oct 3, 2007 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

whoops, NOT necessarily history.

In fact, almost absolutely NOT history.

Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Oct 3, 2007 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Because he's shorter and more squirrley?
I mean, I guess you leave the out that it's not based on statistics... so what would you base it on?

As for all history - well pitcher usage has changed so much that this comparison gets wonky. I mean, if Cy Young throws 7355 innings over 22 years, does it really matter what his ERA+ is?

But I usually like to compare pitcher X to his peers, and I think it's clear that Clemens wins in this category.

Actually, I realize that my previous statment was made based on his stats through 2001 or so. His ERA+ has actually dropped quite a bit, just that you could argue a toss up between him, Walter Johnson, and Lefty Grove.

Ed Walsh gets honorable mention, but career a little short.

by zenbitz on Oct 4, 2007 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

That he is shorter and more squirrely is an extreme oversimplification of why I believe what I do. If I remember I'll pore through the stats later and make my case (I did this like two years ago with a friend, but I don't have any of it left over).

But their stats ar pretty similar outside of strikeouts, and that serves as part of the foundation of my argument. At least it did. Maybe I'll be persuaded to change my mind two years removed from that research.

Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Oct 4, 2007 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Here, you can see both of their career stats here.

Roger Clemens

Greg Maddux

They've started virtually the exact same number of games and pitched virtually the exact same number of innings over that period.

The really obvious thing is that Clemens has a ton more strikeouts. Maddux, on the other hand, has a noticably better career K/BB ratio (3.38 to 2.96), and about 600 fewer walks total for his career.

For their careers they also have virtually identical WHIPs (Maddux has the edge by a mere 3 hundredths of a point), and nearly identical ERAs (Maddux has the edge by a mere hundredth of a point).

Roger Clemens has the edge in career ERA+, largely because he's aged better in the tail end of his career (when his ERA was better compared tto the inflating league ERAs). On the other hand, Maddux at his best was significantly better than Clemens at his best (Maddux had two straight years with ERAs under 2.00 and ERA+s over 250, while Clemens has also been under 2.00 twice in his career (once early, and once late), but both came in seasons when league-wide ERA was low to begin with, so his ERA+ thos years didn't even break 230.

Maddux's ERA from 1992-1998 was cumulatively under 2.30 (7 seasons), while Clemens has only had an ERA 2.30 or under 4 times in his career, and one of them was in one of his infamous short seasons.

I think there's a fairly strong argument in there for Maddux being a better pitcher than Clemens. There's a pretty good argument for Clemens, too.

But I certainly have not been swayed. I still think Maddux has it. And considering I give him extra credit for being a "crafty" pitcher, I believe he has it by a bit of a longshot.

Dave Righetti: You don't know him. / Read My Blog, Because I Write It

by howtheyscored on Oct 4, 2007 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

To be fair, Clemens was a pretty big jackass even back when he was a little skinny guy.

My boy ain't fat, he's just big boned. Big bat, too.

by Roger on Oct 3, 2007 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

Point.

Not boring: Emmanuel Burriss: Not fascist: SF Dugout. Not boring nor fascist: CLE winning the World Series.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Oct 3, 2007 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Martinez and Lincecum

The two share similarities. In another diary ("Thinking the Unthinkable"), I wondered what the organizational report was on Lincecum. Did they view him as a workhorse who could take the ball every 5th day and pitch 200+ innings annually or did they see Lincecum as someone they might have to protect, limit his innings and/or skip an occassional start. Years ago the LA Dodgers had the same questions about Pedro Martinez. LA's organizational report said Martinez was too frail and would not withstand the rigours of 200+ innings annually. With this report the Dodgers then traded Martinez to Montreal for Delino DeShields - and the rest is history. Hope SF gets it right.

by wilriv21 on Oct 3, 2007 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Martinez and Lincecum

That's my only concern with Lincecum. Pedro was amazing (better than Clemens when healthy) but broke down because he's tiny. Clemens was great and consistent because 1.) he had the body and 2.) had one of the most rigorous off-season work-out to ensure he would be ready to be a workhorse. Lincecum can't do that and we probably don't want him to because he would probably hurt himself. Cain will probably never have the stuff Lincecum has but with the proper preperation he could definately have better longevity, like Clemens with Cy Young Stuff. There are Cy Youngs every year, but then there are Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez's in their prime. That's the difference between Cain and Lincecum.

Benitez: All Balk, no Bite.

by BondOrBust on Oct 4, 2007 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Martinez and Lincecum

Clemens' key was strength, much like Nolan Ryan. Tims' key is flexibility.

I absolutely LOVE Pedro Martinez, who had a peak that was better and longer than even Sandy Koufax. But I feel his motion is far more prone to injury than Tim's is.

Last winter I tried to convince John Sickels to make Tim his #1 pitching pick over the two-years-younger Phil Hughes and Homer Bailey. One of the arguments I used was that Tim had thrown many more pitches than either and had yet to develop even a sore arm, while the other had each been shut down due to injury. Sickels moved Tim up from his #6 pitching prospect to his #3, but left him behind the two younger pitchers.

This past season Tim once again avoided even a sore arm, while the other two both missed considerable time to injury. I think one could make an argument for still rating Phil higher than Tim (age and control), but I think it would be tough to do so for Homer.

I have extremely high hopes for Tim, who actually pitched better than his ERA indicated this past season and whose best is almost certainly yet to come.

by sharksrog on Oct 8, 2007 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Martinez and Lincecum

The way I heard Tom House tell it, Pedro saw the way the Dodger tinkered with Ramon's delivery and the resulting arm problems he developed and refused to let the Dodgers mess with his delivery and he was traded.

I'm really glad the Giants have messed with Lincecum.

World Series prediction: Cleveland over Chicago in six games. (I guess I'm still Klesko's adoptive pop; they gypsies weren't interested.)

by Goofus on Oct 4, 2007 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Martinez and Lincecum

I believe the LA GM at the time was Fred Claire and he stated the reason they traded Martinez was because the organization thought he was too frail, too small and would break down. As for Ramon Martinez, Pedro goes way out there to protect his brother. ie Pedro Martinez thinks the Dodgers should retire Ramon's number 48. Ramon pitched well for the Dodgers but to retire his number? Is you crazy?

by wilriv21 on Oct 4, 2007 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

I think Matt Cain is a solid 15-20 game winner, 200 ip, top 10 strike outs, top 10 ERA year after yar, with real HOF potential. That being said, I voted for Lincecum, who I think could be one of the all time greats. So yeah, I'm quite bullish on both.

Defender of Noah Lowry.

by Kid Fresh on Oct 3, 2007 11:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Poll: Better Career? Cain or Lincecum

I kind of see it like you do, Kid Fresh, although I'm perhaps not QUITE as high on Matt as you. Matt was AMAZING in April and very, very good in August and September, but for roughly two and a half months from the beginning of May through the middle or late July, his WHIP was actually quite disturbing.

by sharksrog on Oct 8, 2007 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs