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I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...

I've been staying away but I couldn't hold my tongue on this one.  I like Frandsen, I'm rooting for him with all my heart, but he hasn't shown enough in the minors yet.

Star-divide

I was reading a discussion of Frandsen's merits and one poster opined that with a career mid-400 SLG in the minors, that is good, because even if that drops to the low .400 range in the majors, that would be pretty good.  And that if Frandsen could get his OBP to the major league average of around .340 and get an OPS of mid-.700, then he would be a top 2B.  And if I had a goose that could lay a golden egg, I would own the Giants.

This poster shows his ignorance of how strong a hitters league the PCL is and how much the minors can boost a hitters stats.  This would be like thinking Brian Dallimore would be a good addition to the Giants just because he won the PCL hitting title while playing for Fresno.

Making MLE equivalents was created by Bill James and is an widely accepted tool for judging how well a hitter actually did in the minors, whereby his minor league stats are translated into its equivalent MLB stats.  A number of the major baseball books publishes MLEs for players, particularly Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Forecaster.  So it is a well understood and accepted concept.

Last season, Frandsen hit .304/.358/.440/.799 in the PCL, which looks pretty good on the surface.   And more importantly, it is close to Frandsen's career SLG of .453, so one would think therefore that his MLE translation for the PCL should  be a close enough proxy for translating his career numbers to the majors.  

But his MLE equivalent for the PCL in 2006 is only .273/.315/.379/.694.  That's Neifi territory without the defense.  See here:  http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/435/435623FrePCLb06.html

So no, just because he has been hitting what looks like a good batting rate in the minors, it does not mean that he's going to hit well in the majors, the leap is that great, as the translation shows.  For a stark example of how this type of thinking can bite you in the ass, Pedro Feliz hit .298/.337/.571/.908 when he was 25 in the PCL - Frandsen was 24 last season.

However, I would take heart that he did push up his walk rate in the AFL, though as another poster noted, there were not that many ABs there.  Still, despite there being only 85 AB/101 PA, he had as many walks (12) in 101 PA in the AFL as he did in the PCL in 321 PA.  Yes, small sample, but to match it in 220 less PA?  Got to be very encouraging.  But now he has to prove that this is a real improvement in 2007, not a statistical aberration.  

Lastly, it was noted that power develops last, if at all, and most sources I have read says that power starts kicking in around 26-28 (see Lance Niekro), then improves as the player reaches his physical peak from 28-32 (many disagreements over when peak is, this is roughly what I have seen).  Who knows, maybe Kevin goes on a weight training plan and builds up muscles and starts zinging doubles into the corners and alleys.  But right now, he is not that powerful a hitter, as evidenced by his low SLG, on an MLE equivalent basis (106 secondary average).

The consensus has been that Frandsen is a utility MI.  The consensus has been wrong before.

I hope he makes it though, great story, sounds like a great person, has a great attitude, has done well in the minors, ya gotta root for him.  But he's not there yet and you just have to take heart that he's been advancing every year to a new level.  Hopefully he puts it all together.

Personally, I like what Goldstein did with his Top 10 list, showing the various dimensions you want to look at a prospect from, and giving some indication of how good he is relative to other prospects.  I enjoyed it very much, best prospect breakdown I've ever seen in a compact format.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
Yeah, the difference in hitting environments is what has lead to most to rank Fred Lewis higher than Frandsen.
DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Jan 9, 2007 6:37 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
Kevin Frandsen projects to be a solid utility infielder. Can field multiple positions (although clearly is most comfortable at 2B), runs a little, hits a wee bit, and oozes moxie. (That's what young guys ooze, as opposed to savvy, which is what veterans ooze).

My main concern is that with the signing of Klesko, Aurilia is pretty much the super-sub we all thought he would be, Feliz will get pushed to the bench a fair bit (we hope), and so the #1 concern becomes: how many AB's can Bochy allocate to  Frandsen? 100? 150? Certainly not enough to bolster the confidence of a youngster, and get him in any kind of playing groove. (See: Linden, Ellison, etc.).

While most clubs would either ship Kevin back to Fresno for another year of development, consistent playing time, and 500 AB's, or give him the SF 2B job outright to lose, (along the healthier/younger tip), the Giants will do neither. It seems Sabean, Magowan, or whomever ultimately calls the shots mandates a 1-3 year apprenticeship before significant playing time is awarded to youngsters. Or perhaps the Giants youngsters have sucked (although the case of Aurilia blocked by  Rey Sanchez, the year before Richie hit 35 bombs, sreams otherwise).

With Durham and Aurilia both able to field 2B, Ellison, Lewis, or Neikro could concievably nab the 25th spot on the big club. But it would be an upset. I think the roster spot is Frandsen's to lose. While it might be frustrating to see Kevin rot on the bench, Durham will certainly get his time off, and even if Frandsen clocks a .220 avg for the season, still an improvement over Jose Vizcaino, yes?

by Kid Fresh on Jan 9, 2007 6:45 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
I am unfamiliar with how minorleaguesplits.com calculates its MLEs. Are they any good?

You should be aware that there is more than one source of MLEs out there, and that some are more reliable than others. I normally use Dan Szymborski's MLEs, because they're pretty good and they're open-source, so I can see the methodology. They give Frandsen an MLE of .279/.330/.394 which is perfectly respectable for a second baseman. And this is backed up by PrOPS, which estimates a .257/.325/.384 line.

In 2006, MLB average for a second baseman was 0.276/0.334/0.409.

I believe that Kevin Frandsen will be around a league average second baseman if given the chance, and I don't see this as wishful thinking. In fact give him a small improvement due to age and a small improvement due to seemingly working on his plate discipline and I think he's already there. I predict .270/.340/.414 from him this year.

Visit my blog and die happy.

by Salemicus on Jan 9, 2007 6:56 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
BTW, ZiPS predicts .283/.336/.392 for Frandsen.
Visit my blog and die happy.

by Salemicus on Jan 9, 2007 6:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
Good point, I didn't realize that there were that many other MLEs out there, thanks for the info.  Minor league stats are hard to come by so I didn't think there were other predictions.  

However, I should note that his PrOPS is based on his limited play in the majors, just 102 PA, not on his minor league stats.  

I don't really understand the math of MLEs, just that Bill James uses them and many other do too, and I was only familiar with this site's MLEs.  Here is a link to his methodology, perhaps you can tell me since you seem to be more familiar with them:  http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mle.html

But let's put it this way, Sackmann is one of the analysts used to write in Graphical Player, he writes for The Hardball Times regularly (which is associated with Bill James), and runs a sabermetric site called BeyondTheBoxscore.com, which is affiliated with McCovey Chronicles via SB Nation, the link is to the right.  So I think the pedigree looks pretty good.

About your MLB 2B average, that includes all 2B, bad and good.  If you take all the qualifiers for the batting title, i.e. only starting 2Bmen, these regularly starting 2B have a collective batting line of .285/.340/.434/.764, which is 40-50 points higher than even the estimated OPS that you provided.  That would put his OPS+ at 93-94.  

Now lets take the ranks, to show how bad that really is.  If he was 724 OPS, he would rank 20th out of 24.  If he was 709 OPS, he would rank 22nd out of 24.  If he was the 694 OPS, he would be 23rd out of 24.  So even optimistically, using your numbers, he's a borderline replacement player, which is all that I and others are saying, that there is still doubt that he's a regular 2B.  

I am not saying that he won't make it but that there are plenty of evidence out there that says there are question marks about his ability to make it in the majors.  I'm encouraged that he has hit at every level plus he started taking walks, but as any of the MLEs show, what he has hit is not that big an accomplishment, as nice as it has been, the leap in talent from the minors to the majors is that large a chasm.

All I'm saying is that he needs to develop more if he wants to be a starting 2B in the MLB, because there are question marks about his abilities, question marks about his performance.  It is not just sabermetrics, but scouts have been saying this for a while as well.  

He has some encouraging signs, though, now he has to deliver and continue to improve. I'm rooting for him, but I think that realistically, he's not there yet.  I hope that he improves himself and prove to be worthy of becoming a major league starter.

Also, my usage of Feliz was only intended to show how much stats can fall when a player can move from AAA to the majors.  A .300 hitting AAA player can suddenly find himself hitting .250-.270 in the majors, and that takes up to 100 points off your OPS just from that, plus the reduction in SLG that will occur as well.  

Also, it doesn't help that for AA, AAA, and MLB, Frandsen's BB/SO ratio is 21/63, which is only 33%, which is even worse than Travis Ishikawa, who right now profiles as a low average hitter.  Hitters who have a better chance of hitting in the majors tend to have a minimum of 50% and ideally 100% if you want to be a good hitter.  Not that you can't do it with 33% but it is that much harder to do it, historically.  Who knows, maybe Frandsen is the exception to the rule.

Go Giants!!!

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 10, 2007 3:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
Shame on me, but I forgot that my favorite book, Baseball Forecaster, which is aimed at fantasy gamers but also sabers, publishes their MLEs and it's already out (only for AA and AAA stats):

2005 .280/.296/.394/.690
2006 .270/.291/.382/.674

I guess they use even more stringent translations (they don't mention their exact formula in the book).  They do note:  "A formula that converts a player's minor or foreign league statistics into a comparable performance in the major leagues.  These are not projections, but conversions of current performance.  Contains adjustments for the level of play in individual leagues and teams, and the player's age as compared to that level.  Works best with AAA stats, not quite as well with AA stats, and hardly at all with the lower levels."  [hence why they don't use them at all]

They also have a projection for 2007, for roto play:

2007e .264/.284/.375/.658 in 136 AB

He'll be only 25 next year, so there's still time, but not a lot.  My hope has been that he finally puts it all together in 2007, so that the Giants can trade away Durham in the next off-season, given his economical contract, and start Frandsen in 2008.  I'm not hoping for mid-season this year because that would mean the Giants are doing terribly.

Go Giants!!!

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 10, 2007 5:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
Super Frands?
You're nobody 'til everybody in
this town thinks you're a bastard - Elvis Costello

by EliminateMe on Jan 10, 2007 9:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really
One man's widely accepted tool is another man's pointless over-analyzing.  I have never bought into MLE's, because they require too many steps between analyzing league averages and ballpark factors, taking already inexact ballpark factors and ignoring whether or not the year's group of pitchers and/or hitters are a strong or weak group.  (Not to mention whatever other things James has thrown into his equations; I don't trust a law I don't read for myself, nor do I trust equations I can't see the math behind)  Making some generalizations in trying to form an opinion is one thing, and more or less a given in any analysis.  But the more generalizations used in an analysis, especially when used the mathematically affect each other, the inaccuracy potential is multiplied until the numbers have such an error range that it's almost pointless.

If you believe in them, that's your choice; but they don't mean anything in my opinion, and I don't pay any attention to them when analyzing players.  Any argument citing them is unlikely to sway me at all.

Also, comparing apples and oranges make a difference.  Feliz's power was clearly helped by the ability to hit home runs in the light air in Fresno, and relative small ballparks in the PCL.  When I said that Frandsen's slugging may not be as affected, that's taking into account that slugging does not just mean home runs, and that Frandsen's 'power' is in doubles.  A doubles hitter, which is entirely different than a home run hitter, is HURT by smaller ballparks, and are helped by wider-open spaces in the outfields of bigger parks that potentially allow more balls to fall in.

And the Dallimore comparison is just ridiculous.  A 'batting title' is different from looking at a player's full complement of tools and stats.  It also doesn't refer to what 'addition' is being suggested, whether the 'good addition' is as a possible starter or as an inexpensive utility backup.

BTW, quit with the veiled references to an anonymous poster.  Anyone paying attention knows who you're talking about, and you're not being coy, you're just making your criticisms look silly.

by BruteSentiment on Jan 9, 2007 9:20 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
Pedro Feliz:  He had one breakout year with Fresno that was a major outlier compared to his prior minor league experience.  Frandsen has hit well at every stop.  Some better than others, but no bad stops.

Brian Dallimore was 29 or 30 years old when he won his PCL batting title.  That's just a little different situation than Frandsen is in too.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 9, 2007 10:32 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
never underestimate heart....frandsen has that

he will suceed at the major league level...

he may never be a star, but he will be a solid contributer

by bacci40 on Jan 10, 2007 10:03 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
You're absolutely right, we should never underestimate heart.

I mean, he saved the world more than once, and none of us would have given the stupid animal talking jerk a second thought in hell if we even wanted just to save an otter.

But, more importantly, never underestimate FIRE. I'd take fire over heart any day. Seriously.

Coming to you by proxy

by howtheyscored on Jan 10, 2007 5:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
I'm sure what you really meant to refer to was this.
Waiting for Nate, Tim, Billy, & Emmanuel

by Lyle on Jan 11, 2007 8:15 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

But...
We already have a great rally image for him!  He can't suck!


(credit to xanthan)

Here's to a good 2007. Or 2008. Or 2009. Or 2010. Or...

by WalrusMan on Jan 10, 2007 11:45 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: But...
That image is so f*ing scary. Just terrifying.
You're nobody 'til everybody in
this town thinks you're a bastard - Elvis Costello

by EliminateMe on Jan 10, 2007 12:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: But...
Quiet! Kevin is beautiful!

by xanthan on Jan 11, 2007 11:39 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: But...
Not with that hair, he isn't!
You're nobody 'til everybody in
this town thinks you're a bastard - Elvis Costello

by EliminateMe on Jan 11, 2007 4:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

A 70s thing
His hair seems soft and fluffy.

What gives me the willies is those burlap-bag eyebrows.

by Moggeee on Jan 11, 2007 11:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
I'm confused about all these utility/bench guys we have now. Who's the starting 1B -- Klesko, Aurilia, or someone else? If Klesko does that mean Aurilia will primarily back up Omar/Rayray and Frandsy will be a backup to the backup (if he's up with us at all?). If it's Aurilia does that mean it's Klesko in the above situation or is he more an outfielder? There's all these new people in the mix but none seem to be actual starters except Ray and Omar. I don't know what to think about where Frandsy should be until all this gets sorted out. But ultimately I'd like to see him get a chance in more than just a few games here and there.

by tk on Jan 10, 2007 11:53 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
According to all public statements by Sabean and Bochy, Aurilia is the starting 1B but the situation will be fluid.  

However, I think that if Klesko is truly back to his old self of 2-3 years ago as Bochy thinks he is, that is too good to keep on the bench.  Then he would start platooning at 1B with Aurilia, and when Aurilia is not playing 1B, he and Feliz will be battling for 3B against RHP (except on the days Bonds rest and Klesko plays LF).  Also, if Bonds is resting and Klesko hitting, we might see situations where Bochy is choosing between Frandsen, Linden and Feliz, because Klesko can play LF/1B and Aurilia can play 1B/3B.

I expect to see Vizquel to get more rest this year from Bochy, with Frandsen getting to start in his place, plus you know Durham's going to miss a bunch of games (that's partly why that simulation has the Giants winning the NL West, it had Durham getting 700 PA!), at least 20, so that's probably about 30 starts Frandsen gets plus he see some time pinch hitting.  So about 150-175 total PA.  More if Bochy decides to let Frandsen play 3B instead of Feliz (which will happen often if Feliz hit .202/.248/.348/.596 like he did in the second half of 2006).

Bench right now looks like Sweeney as Go-To PH, Klesko/Aurilia/Feliz (whoever sits), Alfonzo, Frandsen, Linden, assuming the Giants go with 13 position players and 12 pitchers.  Obviously, though, whoever is hitting is going to be getting the starts, so Feliz better not have another bad streak like that or he'll be sitting the pine for a long time.

Go Giants!!!

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 10, 2007 5:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
Jeez O Pete, no wonder I was confused -- the situation is as weird as I thought it was. If x on y, then z but if minus twelve-x is less than Fleas, then LoDuca is a bag of butts.

I think you did an admirable job at explaining it and now I just have to memorize it. Meanwhile, whither Hillenbrand? Is he gone?

by tk on Jan 10, 2007 6:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
Somebody signed Hillenbrand? Wow, and it actually seemed like that wasn't going to happen for a while. I mean, of course it was going to happen, but it sure took a while.
Coming to you by proxy

by howtheyscored on Jan 10, 2007 9:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
Not only that, but it was for, like, $5-6M!!!  What happened to Morales Kendry?  What happened to Howie Kendricks?  What happened to all the other top 1B types they have in their farm system?  Did they really have to stoop to signing up Hillenbrand for so much money, especially this late in the game.  It was not like he had many choices by this point, the music had stopped and everyone else had gotten their seats.
Go Giants!!!

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 11, 2007 10:05 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: I'm Rooting for Frandsen, But Really...
Howie's a 2B, and will be taking over as starting 2B now that they let Adam Kennedy depart. But the point's valid as far as blocking Kotchman and Morales goes, that's a bit of money to have to eat if you decide Kendry's ready.

by Roger on Jan 11, 2007 11:26 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Frandsen vs. Feliz
Rough Quotes from 2006

Feliz, upon being told some people thought he chased too many bad pitches says, "Well noone likes to strike out."  

Frandsen, noting that he doesn't draw enough walks writes, "My patience at the plate was questioned because I only had a few walks.  The thing that people need to realize, when you are a hitter, a good hitter, you have a certain confidence that you can hit anything.  Thats where I ran into problems..."  He then said that he wanted to work on his patience at the plate during the AFL.  No need to repeat what happened.  

This is why Frandsen will succeed where Feliz failed.  He will improve his game, year by year, to the max of his abilities.  

Go Frannie!    

by orangeandblackattack on Jan 10, 2007 3:39 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Well No one wants to strike out.
Now playing 3b for YOURSANFRANCISCOGIANTS; Pedro No One.
Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 10, 2007 9:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Well No one wants to strike out.
Shouldn't that be Pedro Nadie?
You're nobody 'til everybody in
this town thinks you're a bastard - Elvis Costello

by EliminateMe on Jan 11, 2007 10:31 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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