This blogger did 100 trials where he ran season simulations. 57% of the trials had the Giants coming out in first, 22% had the Padres, 15% had the Diamondbacks, and 4.8% called for the Dodgers. 0% had the Rockies winning the West. The average record for the Giants was projected at around 88 wins and 73 losses. Runs scored averaged out at 836, good for best in the National League.
The guy who did this is a Yankee fan who himself claimed to be shocked by the Giants placement in the standing. This is overwhelmingly optimistic, and I choose to see it as a good sign. The sportswriters write as off and peg the Dodgers as the division winners, while the statistics say we take it by a substantial margin of percentages.
The projection system used for individual players was derived by another guy who gives the Giants players a little more credit than ZiPS.