Interesting PECOTA projections

by scotterduder on Jan 29, 2007 5:43 PM PST Comment 13 comments

This blog does an in-depth analysis of runs scored and run allowed for each team based on PECOTA and comes up with projected final record for the 2007 season.

http://thadblog.blogspot.com/2007/01/early-mlb-projections.html

Obviously it has some flaws and takes some liberties, but the most important thing about it is it shows just how terrible the Dodgers will be next year. And that's always a nice thing to think about.

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Re: Interesting PECOTA projections

Hmmmm... their methodology seems to be different from Silver's; awhile back he had the Yankees and Red Sox run differential in the single digits. That said, other than a little bit of quibbling with the bottoms of the NL East and Central, those are the exact standings I'd have predicted (in terms of order, not record).

DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Jan 29, 2007 10:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Interesting PECOTA projections

This methodology uses a lineup analysis tool, and assumed the same lineup for 162 games. So, Bonds played 162 games, while players like Loney and Kemp got zero at-bats.

Last week I plugged some IP and plate appearance estimates for the NL West rosters into the PECOTA spreadsheet, and came up with this...

Team EqA
--
.277 San Diego
.273 Arizona
.273 San Francisco
.268 Los Angeles
.266 Colorado

Team EqERA
--
4.28 Arizona
4.38 San Diego
4.51 Los Angeles
4.58 Colorado
4.76 San Francisco

Based on EqERA, PECOTA thinks the Giants would be better off with Dana Eveland and Rodrigo Lopez than with Matt Cain and Barry Zito. Only one Giant has an estimated EqERA lower than the team estimates for Arizona and San Diego: Armando Benitez. You'll forgive me if I downplay PECOTA's picthing estimates a bit.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Jan 30, 2007 12:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Interesting PECOTA projections

Well, it could be a pretty awful pitching staff, there's no doubt about that. But it also has the potential to be an outstanding one, maybe the best in the league, and that's enough to keep me interested, even through the dark days of late January.

That EQA projection is a little better than I expected and somewhat encouraging, since it shows that the hitting is good enough to compete if the pitching does take off.

by Evan on Jan 30, 2007 1:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Interesting PECOTA projections

I find PECOTA annoying and not particularly reliable. I prefer to live in my own dreamworld where the Giants win 110 games and take the World Series.

Remember 1962!

by El Person on Jan 30, 2007 3:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Interesting PECOTA projections

Wow, your dreamworld sounds a lot like my deamworld. You're not squatting, are you? Because my dreamworld does not take kindly to squatters.

Coming to you by proxy

by howtheyscored on Jan 30, 2007 4:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Interesting PECOTA projections

No, I rented a nice condo. I plan to stay until the Giants win the World Series, which may take a good deal of time.

Remember 1962!

by El Person on Jan 30, 2007 4:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Interesting PECOTA projections

Oh, in that case welcome. Please enjoy the women, the men, and the tequila. In that order if you'd like.

Coming to you by proxy

by howtheyscored on Jan 30, 2007 8:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Interesting PECOTA projections

I think that's a combination of 1) PECOTA struggling sometimes with pitching projections and 2) averaging in high attrition rates. I agree with Evan that the pitching staff could be pretty good or pretty awful, likely tending towards one of the extremes rather than the middle.

DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Jan 30, 2007 1:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Interesting PECOTA projections

Or 1/2 terrible and and 1/2 good which would give you the aggregate projection of 4.59 or whatever.

Don't forget the bullpen doesn't project very well either.

by zenbitz on Jan 30, 2007 5:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Interesting PECOTA projections

If Morris and Lowry have more typical years than last year, it'll be loads of fun to watch this starting rotation.

Biggest mankinder in the history of no brain.

by Goofus on Jan 31, 2007 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Interesting PECOTA projections

I've been waiting for the Indians to break out in the Central for a few seasons now. I don't agree with the prediction of the Tigers finishing third. Their pitching is way too good for that. Then again, I was saying the White Sox were going to repeat as World Champions in 2006, so what do I know?

"Strikeouts are boring. Besides that, they're fascist." Not fascist: SF Dugout

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jan 30, 2007 8:09 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Interesting PECOTA projections

The Indians have the absolute worst luck. They've well underplayed their Pythagorean records, IIRC (some of which can be blamed for the bullpen) and have had the most talented team in that division for two years without a playoff finish.

DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Jan 30, 2007 1:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs