I thought I'd combat my inebriation by guzzling water and reading baseball blogs and then I came across something that I don't see mentioned anywhere else. Looky looky at what Nate Silver had to say in his latest chat...nathan050904 (Winnipeg): Why isn't PECOTA high on Homer Bailey? He's considered by some to be better then Hughes but, PECOTA doesn't really like Bailey at all 5+ ERA how come?
Nate Silver: We have him at a 4.64 ERA, which is about league average for a pitcher throwing in front of a defense as bad as Cincinnati's. Projecting a 21-year-old pitcher who has just 68 innings above A-ball to be an average major league starter seems pretty darn optimistic to me. Granted, it doesn't like Bailey is as good as Phil Hughes or Tim Lincecum, but PECOTA thinks that those two are once-in-a-generation pitching prospects.
Nope, that ain't the demon rum talking, that's Timmy's awesomeness actually described as once in a generation by someone whose projection system is notoriously pessimistic. Yay!