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Around SBN: Chan Sung Jung Wins Thriller Over Dustin Poirier

Baseball America Top 30

  1. Tim Lincecum
  2. Jonathan Sanchez
  3. Angel Villalona
  4. Emmanuel Burriss
  5. Brian Wilson
  6. Kevin Frandsen
  7. Fred Lewis
  8. Nate Schierholtz
  9. EME
  10. Billy Sadler
  11. Travis Ishikawa
  12. Mike McBryde
  13. Clayton Tanner
  14. Osiris Matos
  15. Nick Pereira
  16. Marcus Sanders
  17. Dan Griffin
  18. Merkin Valdez
  19. Brian Anderson
  20. Joey Martinez
  21. Sharlon Schoop
  22. Thomas Neal
  23. Justin Hedrick
  24. Erick Threets
  25. Ben Copeland
  26. Brian Bocock
  27. David Quinowski
  28. Dan Ortmeier
  29. Jose Valdez
  30. Brian Horwitz
Discuss.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Re: Baseball America Top 30
Were there any comments on Villalona? I'd be interested to see if they have anything new to say about him.
LicensetoPills: they say this to my family. to barry bonds family. and i say, "i'll bust you up. here is a candy corn."

by jponry on Jan 20, 2007 2:28 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Baseball America Top 30
That's a lot of kudos to Joey Martinez for gettin' it done in low A ball. I have my doubts but I hope they're right. He was giving pitching lessons to local kids here in northern N.J. to make ends meet a year ago and, by chance, my teenage son ended up as one of his (less promising) pupils. As I've posted before, he was a really nice guy so we're pulling for him. His role model is Greg Maddux -- he kept preaching that pitching is all about location and changing speed.

by NearestNorwich on Jan 20, 2007 2:49 PM PST reply actions  

Jose Valdez!!
A Jose Valdez sighting!!!  I have him at #50 on my own preliminary Top 50.  Had no idea where to put him, just was determined that a 6'7" kid who played in the AZL at age 17 must have something  that the Giants see in him.  I will be most interested to see what they have to say about him.

Interestting that they have Griffin on the list but not Whitaker.  Bocock but not Felmy, Weston or Rohlinger.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 20, 2007 2:53 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Baseball America Top 30
ARich gets no props.  Too bad.  Otherwise a good list.  

by orangeandblackattack on Jan 20, 2007 2:58 PM PST reply actions  

Some to contribute early
Many in the top 10 could contribute in 2007.  The Giants are known as having a pitching strong organization however I count only 14 or 15 pitchers - should I be concerned?

by wilriv21 on Jan 20, 2007 3:08 PM PST reply actions  

Pitching
IMO, organizational pitching isn't what is has been.  In fact, I think a case could be made for making at least 3 of our big 6 picks in the 2007 draft pitchers.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 20, 2007 3:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Baseball America Top 30
The top 10 looks just right.  EME after Schierholtz, because injury issues and position.  Wilson before Sadler and Sanchez ahead of Villalona despite their ceilings.

After Matos though, the pitching prospects get really suspect.  If Merkin makes the list with being out the next year, year and a half, then Acosta and Joaquin should be candidates to take some of the bottom 5 slots. There has to be an unwritten rule out there somewhere that players with light(read anderson tops 90-91 and Martinez 91-93)fastballs and are age 23 and not in aa, can't make our list.  With a low ceiling and low chances of repeating that success with that repetoire in AA and up, it doesn't make sense.

As bad as the bottom third of the list looks, it follows the theme of the first two-thirds.  A theme of players who you will see make the majors(for a sip of coffee) or a couple you will see higher on the list next year.  I can't fault them for making their list more relevant to the casual fan.  Though it's kind of a slap in the face to the people who subscribe to/frequent their site all year round.  "Here's a top 30 of potential fourth outfielders and 5th starter/swingmen"

Glad to see McBryde and Valdez make the list, as they seem to be the longshots, but would rather see one or two reports from the following: Acosta, Joaquin, Creswell, Mooney, Sosa, Shaver, Izturis or Medina since we don't have a scrap of info about them.

by Derelict on Jan 20, 2007 4:55 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Baseball America Top 30
Our #3 is 16 years old, good or bad? I can't decide.
"I want to dip my balls in it." Louie

by MeSoKrabby on Jan 20, 2007 6:39 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Baseball America Top 30
I gotta say I am loving all the attention on Schoop.
"Strikeouts are boring. Besides that, they're fascist." Not fascist: SF Dugout

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jan 20, 2007 6:59 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Baseball America Top 30
Intriguing list.

It's nice to see Wilson finally get some respect.  It seems like a lot of people don't think he's worth a Top 10 list.

I'm not surprised at BA ranking a number of high potential guys so high.  Villalona at three...hell, I even thought about that.  But Burriss at 4?  Wow.  Burriss has speed, but the lack of power, even doubles/triples power concerns me.  McBryde at 11 is less surprising.  Tanner needs to show me a lot more to be 13.  Age is NOT a tool in my book.  Jose Valdez?  Ridiculous.

I also think Schoop is too high.  Same on Sanchez; I hope he's better than I think he is, but he's also not shown me he's more than a bottom of the rotation guy.

Pleasant surprises:

  • Pereira being in the Top 20.  I'm higher on him than most, good to see him getting some recognition.
  • Ditto on Pereira.  Fuck stuff.  I have two words for you: Erick Threets.
  • Justin Hedrick; another nice player I like seeing get recognition.
However, the name I'm most surprised to see on the list: Brian Bocock.  I mean, Jose Valdez isn't all that shocking, knowing how many people make baseball scouting look like pedophilia.  But Bocock was barely on my radar for 50.  21 years old, .223/.305/.282 in S-K.  He had a hot start, but dropped off big-time.  He played college at a good baseball school, but the ASC is not a major conference, and he didn't have a great junior season.  Little power (he has only had one season in which he has hit a single home run), and decent but not outstanding speed.  He's got defensive versatility, but wasn't outstanding.

I mean, sure, maybe he's got growth potential, but in all honesty, wow.  Of all the comments, his are the one I'm most interested in reading.  What separates him from, say, Bradley Boyer or Ryan Rohlinger?  Much less from prospects like Mooney.

by BruteSentiment on Jan 20, 2007 9:06 PM PST reply actions  

Brian Bocock
No way in Hades I'm putting Bocock in my top 50. Heck, I don't think he's even going to get a mention in my "honorable mentions."

Ditto Pereira?  Didn't you talk about him in the previous sentence?  Did you have someone else in mind and make a typo?

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 20, 2007 10:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Baseball America Top 30
Age isn't a TOOL of course, it is however a very meaningful window through which to judge a player's stats.  It seems to me that you're suggesting that I should, for instance, read Michael Mooney's SALLY season (.287/.355/.439) and Jose Tabata's SALLY season (.298/.377/.420) as roughly equivalent, despite the 5+ years differnce in age. That on the face of it strikes me as farcical.  Mooney has several physical tools, but he has always been too old for his league and has still not been able to harness those tools into a killer season.  When someone 5 years younger, in virtually his first season of organized ball in America can match his stats, it does tell you something important.  And that's why Mooney isn't really a prospect.

The other things about age is it's a rapidly declining asset which is first appreciating and then depreciating all of a player's physical tools.  If we assume that 1) a player's physical peak will come at approximately 27-33, and 2) all player's will take 2-3 years to mentally acculturate themself to the major leagues (a complex process involving confidence, understanding the physical tolls of the long season, garnering a "book" on opposition throughout the league), then a prospect's development is always in a race to try to get them through the mental learning curve BEFORE arriving at their physical peak years, so that they can benefit from a confluence of physical and mental peak years.  In that regard, too, the more years young players spend in the minors, the later they get to the majors, the more they're spending the capital of their (relatively few) peak physical years.

There's one other thing that has to be said in BA's defense no matter what we may think of their philosophy: they aren't (like nearly all of us are) simply looking at numbers, watching a few games, and having a go at it.  They rankings are based on a lot of conversations with people inside the organization, scouts from other organizations, managers from other teams in the league, people who were at the IL and AFL.  In other words, they are working to gain a critical mass of knowledge that none of us can really approximate and, I think, even when I disagree with them, that thought should humble me a little in voicing that disagreement.

by Roger on Jan 22, 2007 9:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Second
I'll second that.  I don't always agree with BA and sometimes they are just wrong, but I really respect their opinions and still consider them the best source of minor league info.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 22, 2007 10:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Baseball America Top 30
I never said anything about comparing Mooney to Tabata, and no, I don't believe Mooney's an equivalent...that's not even coming close to what I am talking about and a complete misrepresentation.

But before addressing that: A lot of what you typed about age is something you said yourself: it's an assumption.  There's a lot of generalities, but the truth is that we cannot assume.  Angel Villalona at 16 is built and developed physically like a comparable 21-22 year old (if not some older).  Tim Lincecum, meanwhile, could pass for a 15 year old, and I say that being someone who has met him personally and talked with him for the site I write for.  Some 22 year olds aren't as developed as some 18 year olds, and some tools and production don't always get affected by age the same way (such as Mooney's speed, which manager Roberto Kelly said is about him being able to read pitchers, and is not natural speed.  That's how he outstole Copeland, who is much faster naturally).

That is why age, by itself, is not something that I look at, and why I made that proclamation about it not being a tool; however, when some comment about certain players saying "Well, they didn't produce at a low level, and haven't ever in organized ball but hey, they're young" such as Schoop or Jose Valdez, I puff my chest and say such things.

What I look at that is more important than age is experience.  When a player repeats a level, I expect a much better performance, simply because he should adapt.  That's why Schoop's 2006 does not wow me, considering he repeated the level and was better prepared.  Sure, he's young, but if it takes him a year+ to adapt to each level, he won't be 'young' for long.

Meanwhile, a player like Mooney has performed well most of his career.  Yes, he also repeated Rookie-ball (for mental maturation), and his advancement in his second year was as expected.  However, again another perception, is that in Salem-Keizer, he played as a 21-22 year old.  Considering that is a league mostly populated by college players (juniors and seniors), that age is right in line.

Being 22-23 in the SAL is not, in my view, 'old' either, however it is on the upper end of the spectrum, and he would be best served by potentially skipping High-A (a suggestion that is a great debate point, but that's for another time).

Now, OBVIOUSLY Tabata has been a different beast, having skipped Short-A and gone straight to Low-A.  Duh.  Please don't distort my arguments.

But when comparing Schoop and Mooney, I've seen Mooney develop steadily over several seasons and continue to play with his only obvious weakness being the one tool that can adjust over time: his mindset.  Compared with Schoop, who has a ton of potential but so far has not been consistent with any of them except defense and who also just repeated Rookie Ball, Mooney has a better chance of becoming a good major leaguer at this moment than Schoop.  That's my view.

by BruteSentiment on Jan 22, 2007 2:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Baseball America Top 30
I apologize for my mis-interpretation, but I did think you were saying that you can read stats from a league equivalently, regardless of "age relative to league" and I chose Tabata as an extreme refutation of that argument. Both he and Mooney were in their first year in the league and both put up similar stats. Again, sorry if I distorted your point.

Just a couple of counterpoints -- I think a very young player returning to a complex league isn't quite the same as an older player returning to full season league (huge demerits for Dan Ortmeier returning to AA for example). And Schoop does seem to excite scouts so, having never seen him myself, that in turn excites me.  I've long argued that the Giants were doing Mooney a disservice but, to me his season in the Sally was, for someone his age a disappointment. He's going to have to take a huge leap in the next two years to have a major league career of any kind, and it's hard to see that happening to me.

And lastly, I disagree on Tanner as well. Highly touted high schooler going into the draft, a fairly high draft pick, the organization thought enough of him to put him straight into a college level league (unlike Matt Cain or Craig Whitaker, both of whom made a handful of highly regulated appearances in Scottsdale their draft year) where he more than held his own and was just one blowup away from really excellent numbers. Again, the combination of scouting reports, age relative to league AND stats are very impressive to me. Much more so than older pitchers with below average stuff with better numbers.  It's very very hard to succeed long term in the majors with below average stuff (expecially after scouting reports get around the league and they know its coming). And I don't think you can argue against that by cherry picking the two or three examples in the major leagues -- you have to take into account the scores of guys with great stats in single A who got pounded more and more as they went up the ladder.  

by Roger on Jan 22, 2007 2:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Baseball America Top 30
Fair enough, and I do think that age, as part of context, is an important part of regarding players.  However, age against level is not the only context.  I am of the belief that age against experience is at least as important, if not more.  And I definitely believe that mind is as important as tools; as I've often argued with Frandsen, it's the ability to get the most out of tools.

I won't disagree that Mooney would be behind 'schedule' (particularly for a JC draftee) if he only goes up a level a year, but I'm also fine with players who are a little older than most; I don't believe that it is a damning factor in becoming a good player, but it's certainly very unusual.  And Mooney doesn't have the usual excuses (age, drafted/signed as a senior).  But what I do like about Mooney is a well-rounded group of tools and regular production from them, and that as he faced higher competition he played smarter.  He has contact issues, but still has high-level defense with competitive power and speed to pair with it.

And it's not unprecedented for older outfielders to skip to a higher level (like a 24 year old Jason Ellison; hardly a cherry-picking and not a great portender, but the Giants will push some players).  I do, however, hope they push Mooney past SJ instead of Connecticut.  SJ is a little too perfect for Mooney; the field is tailor-made for his offense, with the deep right-center corner for XBH and the wind pushing towards a shallow left-down-the-line, plus the park will let him excel defensively and he's a Bay Area native.  With his strongest weakness being mental toughness, sending him to a cold and foreboding Norwich might set him for a fall, but if he's got anything, he'll show it better in Double-A than in San Jose.  The higher levels are a time to challenge, not coddle.

And the major difference in Mooney and Tabata that makes it an irrelevant comparison isn't the experience just at the league, but prior experience; Tabata skipped a level, Mooney repeated a lower one and had three pro years under his belt.

And my disagreements with BA are in what I believe they value more: They value a player who can be a superstar; they all but admit in their prospect guides that they all but disregard players who could become league average players.  Again, they see a young age and see plenty of room for improvement; I see plenty of room for failure.  That's what I've gotten from the reports I've heard (no, I haven't seen him either) of Schoop.  Scouts think that Schoop can be 'fixed' to make his natural tools shine.  But from what I've heard, Schoop has poor batspeed which translates into little power potential, and he has speed that's just above average, and hasn't picked up the nuances of baserunning.  The latter might come with more experience, but until then he's got a maybe-bat with walks but little power or little speed.  The defense helps, but I'm the type that needs production to get excited; one thing I've learned from writing is that excitement from speculative hearsay is often just disappointment in waiting.

As for Tanner...well, a lot of what I've said about Schoop applies, although Tanner did produce right away and obvious hasn't repeated a level.  Again I like track record, that's me.  Tanner's stuff, however, isn't hardly Cain's or even Whitaker's.  That's not a knock, but it does bring up the question I brought up originally...why did Tanner relieve?  If the organization wasn't as high on Tanner as Cain because of where they started, then why did the Giants have Cain start regularly in his 'highly regulated appearances' but not have Tanner start once?  It's a long road, and Tanner hasn't even had a track to make a record on...yet.

by BruteSentiment on Jan 22, 2007 8:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Baseball America Top 30
Fair points on Tanner.  In a best-case scenario I'd say that they had him relieve to avoid piling too many innings on an 18-year old arm in addition to the stress of pitching against older experienced players.  In a worst-case scenario, it's just another example of their bizarre tendency to jerk pitchers back and forth.  Another guy who's put up very good numbers and I think is worth at least a try at starter is Q. I understand he's small, but I say it's easier to develop a repetoire and a feel for pitching as a starter than it is as a reliever. Q's put up some of the best numbers in the system over the last couple of years, and I don't think the system depth is currently good enough right now to justify shutting him out. I'd see what he can do a SJ, but that's just me.

by Roger on Jan 23, 2007 5:19 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Baseball America Top 30
I have been told by one of Clayton Tanner's coaches at De La Salle that Clayton has been told he will be starting this season.

by sharksrog on Jan 23, 2007 1:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Yuck, middle relievers
It never occurred to me that Anderson, Martinez, Hedrick and Bocock would make the Top 30 -- at least not all of them. I mean, really, who thinks Anderson is a better prospect than Schoop? I wonder who from BA did the list this year.

by Dan from NM on Jan 20, 2007 10:31 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Yuck, middle relievers
I absolutely think that Anderson is a better prospect than Schoop right now.

Anderson doesn't have 'stuff,' but he's made the most of it to record-setting results.

Schoop has potential, but repeating the rookie league resulted in expected results, nothing more.  He has to show more power than 14 career extra-base hits in 90 games, or/and more than 10 steals in a season, for me to predict more about him.

by BruteSentiment on Jan 21, 2007 1:21 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Yuck, middle relievers
You're right that Anderson's results are excellent, but I think it pays to be skeptical of relievers at the low levels of the minors who don't have good stuff. His upside is what, a nice middle reliever?

Schoop is far away from the bigs, no doubt, but his upside chance of becoming a slick-fielding shortstop in the majors is worth more than Anderson -- to me anyway. I definitely wouldn't trade Schoop for Anderson straight up.

Schoop is also younger, so he's got more potential for future growth.

I'm looking forward to reading the scouting reports, though, as Baseball America could change my mind about some of these guys.

by Dan from NM on Jan 21, 2007 11:56 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Yuck, middle relievers
I guess it comes down to a fundamental difference in value:

Some see someone at lower levels and thus have more time (and room) to grow; I see someone who has further to go to get enough talent to become a major leaguer, and has a longer road with more chances of being derailed.

Neither is necessarily better than the other.

That said: I don't believe that velocity is as important to closing as some, and I feel that such a general perception is fueled by existing closers who lose their reliability after losing velocity; however, this is often because such pitchers relied on their velocity to miss bats.

Anderson, however, does not lean on velocity to miss bats, and so far has maintained a 10+ k/9 IP.  He is also stingy with walks (just 20 in 95.1 IP) and has not shown a propensity to be hit hard when he is hit.

When I spoke with him late last year, he also said he is working with the coaches to increase his velocity through cleaner mechanics, and thinks he has another couple of MPH to add onto his fastball, putting it in the low-90's.

He is not a classic closer, but I don't think 'middle relief' is his ultimate ceiling.  I think he could be a good and ever-undervalued closer, but has a very realistic future as an excellent setup man.

by BruteSentiment on Jan 21, 2007 5:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Yuck, middle relievers
Justin Duchscherer is a good example of this discrimination.  He was as good as or better than Street the past couple years, but is generally a soft-thrower and I doubt will ever get a full-time closer gig.

Alert the ACLU.  Or the NAASTSM (National Association for the Advancement of Soft-Throwing Setup Men).

Then again, maybe he'll never get ahead simply because it's too darn easy to nickname him "Douche".

"When I think of how many times the Enemy has tried to kill Gary Busey..."

by multiphasic on Jan 21, 2007 6:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Yuck, middle relievers
Perhaps it is because he followed Timmy Lincecum, but while I was highly impressed with Brian Anderson's curve on September 9th, I wasn't impressed with his fastball, which ranged from 81 mph to 86.  Timmy had consistently been hitting 94-97.  I have read that Brian is hoping to add speed to his fastball by improving his mechanics.  I believe he topped out at 89 mph last season and is hoping to reach the low 90's.

by sharksrog on Jan 23, 2007 1:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Yuck, middle relievers
That tidbit on Brian jives with what he said to me late last year.

by BruteSentiment on Jan 24, 2007 12:01 AM PST up reply actions  

85-89 MPH
Brian Anderson's fastball in the game I saw him pitch.  If he added a MPH or 2, he'd remind me a lot of Timmy Worrell.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 24, 2007 8:35 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: 85-89 MPH
I saw him most consistently at 86-89 last year, but I saw him in the low-80's a couple of rare occurrences.  One of the reasons I'm so high on him was that he recognized when one pitch (such as his fastball) didn't have it, and adjusted, using his offspeed pitches and control to get outs and working for weak contact rather than going for the K when he couldn't get it.

That's a mental leap most pitchers have trouble making.

by BruteSentiment on Jan 24, 2007 9:27 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Baseball America Top 30
Overall, I like the list. I still don't believe Fred Lewis will make it in the bigs, so naturally I have him much lower on my list. I'm big on Sanchez and also have him #2. In fact, I agree on the top six choices.

I don't think Valdez, Threets, Quinowski (sorry, DrB), or Bocock belong in the Top 30. With the exception of Bocock (and I'm with Brute on him), I think BA is too hung up on the almighty "potential" with pitchers. I've given up on Threets and Valdez. Nothing to see here folks, let's move along.

I'm very pleased to see Joey Martinez make the list. I'm most disappointed to see no love for Sergio Romo or Eugenio Velez. I have Romo in the Top 20, in fact.

Waiting for Nate, Tim, Billy, & Emmanuel

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Jan 21, 2007 10:10 AM PST reply actions  

Giving Up
Valdez' situation is pretty precarious.  He on the DL for at least a year with TJ.  After that, he's out of options so has to make the major league team in 2008 or has to clear waivers.  After that?  I suppose he could pitch winter ball at the end of 2007, but nothing we've seen in the past suggests that he is ready for the majors without more major seasoning even without the TJ.  I'm not even bothering to rank him in my Top 50 let alone top 20.

Threets is a different story.  I think it's too soon to give up on him.  His numbers weren't too exciting last season, but they weren't at all bad considering the PCL context.  The season ending injury was apparently a pulled oblique(boy, that sure has become the injury du jour, huh?) and he should be raring to go by ST.  The reports I've read have the Giants player development people insisting that Threets was still hitting the high 90's last season.  He reportedly even hit 100 MPH in a game against New Orleans at one point.  I'm gonna rank him either high 20's or low 30's on my list.  Considering the weaknesses in our farm system, that's not exactly a ringing endorsement, but a sign that I still have some hope for him.

Q?  He's put up numbers so far.  Sounds like his stuff is a bit borderline.  Ceiling may be as a middle reliever or Loogy.  Again, I haven't checked in on my provisional list lately, but I don't think I have Q top 20. I think he's between 20 and 30.  Again, the overall weakness of the system has to be taken into account here.

I know we all said this last year, but 2007 should be a major shakeout year for the organization.  I expect next year's list to look a whole lot different.  Players from the 2006 draft will move up.  Drifting players who don't step up will be shaken out.  I expect the 2007 draft to have a huge impact as most, if not all, of the top "Big Six" picks could make the top 30.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 21, 2007 11:21 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Baseball America Top 30
With Romo, I think it comes down to huge makeup and injury issues brought up with his broken hand late in the year.  Having a good mindset is questionable enough, but a broken hand?  That's where he makes his living, and whether or not his slurve will be as good after it heals is a huge issue.

by BruteSentiment on Jan 21, 2007 5:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Baseball America Top 30
DrB, I like Threets too from a pure stuff angle but his control is going to have to improve. His line from the PCL in 2006 doesn't look so bad until you check out his walk totals.

63 IP 44 BBs, thats almost Ortizian!

by xanthan on Jan 22, 2007 12:54 PM PST up reply actions  

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