Grades

by Grant Brisbee on Jan 2, 2007 8:41 AM PST in News

The end of the year is the perfect time for formulae. Top-ten lists...years in review...five things we've learned from something else.... Not at McCovey Chronicles. I'm too good for that. And by "good", I mean "completely willing to do something hacky." If you want serious and original analysis, ask for it when I don't feel like there's a raccoon chewing on my brain stem for the second day in a row. I've paid my penance, god of hangovers! But I'm willing to listen to any sort of compromise you have to offer - including and up to human sacrifice. You have my number.

Grading Sabean's moves

Resigning Ray Durham -

Short term: A-
Long term: C

Even if his homers drop back down, he's still a valuable hitter. Concerns about his defense were always ridiculously overblown; he makes a nice DP mate for Vizquel. He is, however, blocking the only position player prospect who could conceivably be reading for a role right now. Frandsen will still get his at-bats, but questioning the move on that basis is legitimate.

Signing Benji Molina -

Short term: B-
Long term: D+

He's going to be Mike Matheny without the defense at some point in his career, and that could even start this season. Still, if bad defense is the order du jour, Molina is a much, much, much better bet to be productive with the bat this season than Eliezer Alfonzo, who I just can't trust yet.

Signing Rich Aurilia -

Short term: A-
Long term: B+

A productive player who doesn't mind coming off the bench if a more productive player is found? Every team should have a few of those. The long-term grade is docked because of the draft pick loss, but other than that there shouldn't be any lasting impact.

Re-signing Pedro Feliz

Short term: F -------
Long term: N/A

One-year deal, but easily the worst of the lot. He's being paid starter money, so he'll probably start 160 games. The defense was great in the first half of the season, but nothing can make up for that kind of outmaking.

Signing Dave Roberts

Short term: C
Long term: D-

The choice was Roberts/Winn or Winn/Linden. I take the latter before considering the money. At least Roberts gets on base, and Linden in the Steve Finley role isn't the worst thing in the world, but there's no chance that we'll be looking forward to one more year of Winn and Roberts in the same outfield after the '08 season.

Signing Ryan Klesko

Short term: A-
Long term: N/A

I've come around on this one a lot, and I kind of liked it to begin with. All reward, no risk; it's the perfect move for this offseason. Mark Sweeney's a good player to have, but he'd be way gooder with some of that there power. Maybe Klesko's power is sapped forever...but it isn't going to take a multi-year deal to find out.

Tomorrow: the pitching. Today: Your grades.

Tweet Comment 64 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Re: Grades

Forget one?

Resigning Barry Bonds:
Short term: X- (wrapped around backwards from A+)
Long term: N/A

Dude's good.

by zenbitz on Jan 2, 2007 9:05 AM PST reply actions

Re: Grades

D'oh! Yeah, Bonds is an A for both.

by Grant Brisbee on Jan 2, 2007 10:22 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Grades

Feliz:

This one puzzles me to no end. I really don't understand one iota of it.

I can see him for a scrub. But as you wrote, they pay him starter money.

I can't believe they can't see what everybody else sees. He is a mess at the plate. He takes the most demoralizing hacks since Marvin Bernard was reenacting Blue Thunder with fastballs, not reachable with a stepladder. He is in a way the anti-Bernard. Some nice glovework, but so does Frandsen and Aurelia. I just don't get any part of it. Its as if the Feliz deal was put together by remote control from Los Angeles. The most bizzare thing since Felipe was given a one year extension in June of 2005 in the middle of the worst losing streak in years. Totally whacko.

Look. Four times per game, each of 35,000 living breathing, cash-carrying human beings is faced with choices.

Run screaming from their seats with hands flapping.
Vomiting into their bag of goobers, thereby spoiling perfectly good peanuts.
Toss the Mayor of 311 from the upperdeck and invoke the Fleas defense at trial.
In addition thousands of tv viewers kick in their plasma screens. The Giants own stock in DLP or something?

I'm not even sure what the company line is. How can there even be one that would not have even the most junior of cub reporters throwing furniture at Giant Spokespersons? How do you justify paying the worst offensive guy at his position $5million?

I'm not so outraged as I am flummoxed. This signing seems so bad on the surface it just has to be good and we're all too blinded by rational thought to see it.

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 2, 2007 9:09 AM PST reply actions

Fleas needed work, Sabean needed bodies

Feliz makes Brian wretch, just like us. Though dealing from utter weakness, Sabean did not negotiate for anything but a one-year-and-out deal.

In trying to further explain the harrowing fact Pedro is still among us, I will mention the oddity which can't be denied: Fleas has led the team in RBIs two years running -- a detestable statistic which can only be blamed on the utter anemia of the Giants' offense.

So, after Sabean had jettisoned Bonds toward Neptune, and whiffed on Matthews, Pierre and Lee -- that is the moment our GM looked at the Free Agent Power Pantry, noticed it was bare, and panicked.

That is the moment when Durham and Feliz became Must-Signs.

It was getting late in the game -- the Giants roster had more holes than a J.D. Drew contract -- and Brian had to sign SOMETHING to get a start on 2007.

Those signings stanched the front office bleeding.

Never mind that the fanbase is doomed to hemorrhage from their eyeballs every time we have to watch Petey in 2007.

(Helpful Hint: You can save yourself much misery by impaling your eyes on a fork at dinner tonight.)

by Moggeee on Jan 2, 2007 11:11 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Fleas needed work, Sabean needed bodies

"the Giants roster had more holes than a J.D. Drew contract"

more like, "more holes that JD Drews rotator cuff"

by someguynamedg on Jan 3, 2007 8:37 AM PST up reply actions

So many analogies, so few chances to use them

I was toying with a pedestrian, but non-baseball analogy:

"More holes than the Niner Defense."

But they've been so competent lately.

So competent that Nolan fired the staff today.

by Moggeee on Jan 3, 2007 1:42 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Grades

Why Pedro Feliz when as it turned out, Aubrey Huff was avaiable for only $1.6 million per year more (albeit for two more seasons)?

What gets me is that since saying last winter that the Giants needed to improve their OBP, Brian Sabean has signed or re-signed both Jose Vizcaino and Pedro Feliz. Perhaps he thought OBP stood for Outs are Bountiful and Plentiful.

by sharksrog on Jan 10, 2007 5:55 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Grades

I'm going to take a break from working on the presidential campaign of that female atheist that Grant already, and quite surprisingly, has learned of. Since she is both a rabid Giants fan and extremely confident of winning the election, despite the usual criminal vote counting shenanigans in florida and Ohio. She's also noticed how much larger my head became over the weekend and attributes it to an enormous influx of intelligence.
Oh, yeah, graeds, um, I mean 'grades.'
DURHAM: A-, B. Because, after watching Niekro's futility (not to even mention Pedro's) I am cured of ever handing a rookie a starting position - without a parachute, um, I mean, major leaguer already at the ready - not waiting for someone to get kicked off his team before his team will take our Accardos. Let Frandsen out play Durham and send Durham to the bench.
MOLINA: B-, C+. I would have rather have gotten Zaun, but the Blue Jays ruined my grand plan. Barajas? Why would he be any better? I think Sabes made something out of nothing here (and I'm including Notgardo in the "nothing" category (see his stats for Aug/Sep, and you will see the REAL Notgardo stand up). Unlike my own adolescent celebretory behavior last night, I don't think Molina's D will all of a sudden, without warning, just catostrophically fall off the curb. Once the warning signs are seen, I expect, Zaun will be a FA again). Or we will go to plan B. And the money isn't so outrageous that Molina mostly pinch hitting and playing 40-45 games is a big financial drain.
AURELIA: the proverbial hitting nail on head.
FELIZ: While I didn't want to resign him, I do see that this team is going to pay a lot of attention to Defense, which PF brings in abundance. I thought $5 mil was kind of high. But I think his not being asked to play every single inning of a 200 game schedule (ie being rested a few times per month, being in better shape come ST, actually having a ST this year, working on his hitting, and being on a one year contract, and not having the safety net of Alou the Elder, all provide a reasonable promise of improvement, significant improvement, a la BA 265, OBP 330, SLG 455. And if the real Pedro has already stood up, (a la opb 280), he will likely be DFA'd (assuming Frandsen and Aurelia are hitting, and somebody, anybody, is hitting in AAA/AA).
ROBERTS: B-, B-. (See Durham, above). I am definitely not in favor of putting '07s Niekro anywhere on the field. I actually love this move, although I am surprised by the 3 years. I think Roberts is looked at as an incredible future bench player, pinch runner, 4th OF. As I see it (meaning, as I would 'manage' it), this sets up a competition/platoon for playing time/starter's spot amongst Winn, Roberts, Linden. I do not think BOTH Roberts and Winn are looked at as semi long term solutions (although they do get a repreive if Bonds has less than a BA of 600, OBP of less than 980, etc and is not back next year. The liklihood is '08 will bring one new starter in the outfield. Linden auditions this year (w/ about 350 ABs - more if he hits and forces his way into the line up) and demonstrates once and for all if he is a major league OF or AAAA.
KLESK: Yes, virtually no risk, potential for significant gain. I remember 2 years ago coming to the phone booth for a game against the Padres sitting betwseen home plate and the Padres dugout and, during batting practice seeing how godammed big the Padres players were. Like, intimidating big. Like, lead by Klesko (who, of course I hated). I mean, really, what if the guy hit 279 w/ 23-26 HRs? And we're paying, not peanuts, peanut shells to find out.

by allfrank on Jan 2, 2007 9:31 AM PST reply actions

Re: Grades

man grant, you are one ez grader

wish i had you in hs

your grades are correct if most of the fa's we picked up were bench players and signed for under 2mil per

they were not

overall short term and long term grade.....d

by bacci40 on Jan 2, 2007 9:49 AM PST reply actions

Re: Grades

Short term is certainly not that bad. I'd give it an overall of at least a B-, and considering what the offseason gave us to work with probably would even hold firm on at least a B.

Long term, now that's maybe in the C range.

Coming to you by proxy

by howtheyscored on Jan 2, 2007 10:27 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Grades

Durham, Aurilia, and Bonds are A minuses, good deals that have some minor drawbacks.

Molina and Roberts are solid C's. They'll help the team and their contracts won't be millstones, but better and cheaper solutions were available.

Klesko: B+. I still think he's done. But I will grudgingly admit that if he can get back to his 2003-05 level, he will help the team quite a bit. (There's no chance that he gets back to his peak of 1999-2002.)

Feliz: A month ago I would have given this one a C-, because Pedro's defense is pretty valuable, and I think he's going to have a comeback year just to spite us. But now we've got a pitching staff built around Cain and Zito, who give up fewer ground balls than almost any other pitchers in baseball! What an idiotic way to build a team.

by Evan on Jan 2, 2007 10:10 AM PST reply actions

Re: Grades

Good point about the Giants building a fly-ball pitching staff.

As for Pedro Feliz, I too expect him to bounce back a bit. But even a bounce-back season by Pedro isn't likely to be a very good one. The guy simply makes too many outs.

I think defensively he is one of the best, and while he certainly slumped afield the second half, all but five of his errors were throwing errors. I would suspect mechanics could be corrected there. Pedro's defense creates outs for the Giants -- but not as many as his bat loses.

by sharksrog on Jan 10, 2007 5:58 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Grades

Funny, that's the second time I've seen Sweeney referred to as "Mike" here today.

Is this one of those split posts where we get to read the Sabean's grades for pitching moves tomorrow?

Biggest mankinder in the history of no brain.

by Goofus on Jan 2, 2007 10:47 AM PST reply actions

Re: Grades

Resigning Durham

Short term: A-
Long term: A-

Its a no-lose situation. Durham stays healthy, he'll hit well. He gets injured, Frandsen gets a chance

Bengie Molina

Short Term: B
Long Term: C+

At least hes not Alfonzo?

Dave Roberts

Short Term: A
Long Term: B+

Gets on base, leads off, and is basically a shit disturber on the base paths. I like it.

Rich Aurilia

Short term: B+
Long term: B

Basically what Grant said. Good hitter who'd be willing to come off the bench if a better player was found.

Ryan Klesko

Short term: A
Long term: N/A

Resigning Pedro Feliz

Short term: F---------------------------
Long term: N/A

I came into the offseason thinking we'd finally be rid of him...

Giants Cove: It'll make you a better person for reading

by Chulk on Jan 2, 2007 10:47 AM PST reply actions

Re: Grades

I have a question about the way you are assigning grades, grant. Are they given out as a projection of what the player will do, both short term and long term, which it seems to be what you are doing? Or are they grades given to Sabean, which is what your title suggests, which should be based on what his alternatives were? If it is the latter here are my grades.

Bonds: "A" in the short term - he still looks to be a premium bat in middle of the lineup, "NA" in the long term - there is no real long term with Bonds, even his deferred money won't be much of a factor.

Durham: "B-" for the short term - his options were limited after Soriano went with the Cubs, "C" for the long term -only two years so he won't be too much of a disaster if he spends his customary time on the DL. btw, his, meaning Ray's, defense is as poor as advertised. While he has decent range, he has stiff hands that cause way too many errors on simple plays. Nothing special turning the double play.

Molina: Solid "B" in the short term - he probably was the best FA catcher out there with nothing in the farm system. "B-" for the long term - I like the idea of him working with this pitching staff over the next three years, but share some concerns his defense. I'm going to have to watch him in a lot more games to make a judgement, but I wonder where the defensive wunderkind of 2002 went, if the reports are correct.

Aurilia: "C" both short term and long term (2 year contract.) I really like Richie, but I must admit that I worry that Great America inflated his numbers. If he ends up as a back up for the next two years, that ain't too bad.

Feliz: "C" in the short term - this is good for the left side of the defense and helps with the Giants power draught, but he will continue to frustrate fans with his horrible plate discipline, but what were the alternatives from the status quo? Once Rameriz re-signed with the Cubs, and ARod wasn't put on the trading block, there were no superstar alternatives. Of the other choices, Aurelia or Frandsen as a stop gap here aren't the worst choices to make. Better than 3 years to Huff. There is no long term commitment here.

Roberts: "B" short term - good stop gap solution that helps with the defense and the top of the order. "C" long term - here I think I inflate the grade because of the possible commitments to Pierre or Gary Matthews, Jr. They both would have ranked as "D" or below for the long term. I hoping Roberts is our fourth outfielder next year or the year after that at least.

Klesko: "D" - this guy could surprise me and come back from injuries to give the Giants some much needed pop, but he has always struck me as a platoon player at best - which he probably will be with the Giants - and at worst he is a burnt out platoon player. Sabean should have gone towards a major upgrade at this position and he didn't. No long term effect other than delay by a year the search for an impact solution.

yob

by Sayhey on Jan 2, 2007 11:25 AM PST reply actions

Feliz

given that he is only signed to a 1-year deal, I'd give Sabean an A for the long term because he can only hurt us for one year and not beyond, thus limiting his damage.

We'd be pretty good if we didn't suck so bad.

by nostocksjustbonds on Jan 2, 2007 11:36 AM PST reply actions

Re: Feliz

I would assign an F grade for the long-term based on my own personal assumption that the Giants willingness to resign Feliz this year is an indication of potential to make the same mistake next off season.

Vote for Pedro...to be DFA'd!

by W8ingForATitle on Jan 2, 2007 12:37 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Feliz

Before re-signing him, I had such a tremendous fear that Sabean would sign Feliz to a 2-3 year deal that the 1-year deal is such a relief and somewhat restored my belief that Sabean is not a COMPLETE idiot. In a perfect world Feliz would be run out of town, but having him for only one more year is preferable to anything longer, thus a long-term grade of A.

Of course, if there is some secret understanding that Feliz gets a long term deal if his obp passes .300, then it is all for naught, but as of now, nothing like that is on the table. But I do see your point that so long as he is around, there is a potential that he would signed again after this season does exist.

We'd be pretty good if we didn't suck so bad.

by nostocksjustbonds on Jan 2, 2007 1:51 PM PST up reply actions

We dodge a bullet, get leveled by a bullet train

With the manifold Giant needs in early October, I was predicting Sabean would do the expedient but dumb thing and sign both Feliz AND Hillenbrand to two or three year deals immediately after the regular season, just to get a leg up on the market.

Until last week Sabean had inked contracts that at least allowed for some near-term maneuverablity. But then he went and destroyed most of that wiggle room with a longterm Zito deal which compromises payroll well into the next Ice Age.

by Moggeee on Jan 2, 2007 11:29 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Feliz

Signing Pedro to a one-year contract if you're paying him the same as or hopefully less than in 2006: B

Signing Pedro to a one-year contract, at a 25% raise, when Fleas clearly had no compelling offers from other teams and had indicated his strong desire to return here: D-

by Kitspool on Jan 2, 2007 12:52 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Feliz

Signing Pedro to a one-year contract, and flipping him mid-season for a prospect... Priceless!

(also highly improbable)

by zenbitz on Jan 2, 2007 4:06 PM PST up reply actions

How the Giants set their Wage Scale

(Magowan and Sabean smuggly huddle up after snagging Feliz.)

Magowan: "Hey, Brian. So...you just gave Fleas, who has no other offers, $5 million? That makes Bonds, who has no other offers, worth $20 million."

The rest is contract history.

by Moggeee on Jan 2, 2007 11:41 PM PST up reply actions

My Grades?

Solar System Astronomy A
Intro to Biology B
English 1b B
Beginning Drafting C
General Psychology C

Here's to a good 2007. Or 2008. Or 2009. Or 2010. Or...

by WalrusMan on Jan 2, 2007 11:51 AM PST reply actions

Re: My Grades?

My Geology lab and lecture classes start the day after MLK Day. Will I get straight A's again this semester? Stayed tuned.

SFDugout: it's where all the cool kids go.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jan 2, 2007 12:13 PM PST up reply actions

OUCH!

My classes start on the 29th. :-D I'm also taking a Geology class, California Geology.

Here's to a good 2007. Or 2008. Or 2009. Or 2010. Or...

by WalrusMan on Jan 2, 2007 12:23 PM PST up reply actions

Re: OUCH!

Geology rocks, so dont take it for granite. Geologists know what makes the bedrock! And a bunch more that make you groan. As a geologist here, I think your minds are going to be blown. You'll see the earth in a new light, and you'll find yourself looking at dirt or road cuts a little more closely, or be hanging out on the beach examining the sand up close up with your hand lens. You'll really enjoy the classes. If you have any questions, let me know.

If worms had daggers, birds wouldn't f*ck with 'em

by the degenerate on Jan 2, 2007 3:56 PM PST up reply actions

The day is gneiss, I never take it for granite.

I've always been interested in geology (uncle's a geologist and whole family is kind of interested so I was brought up into it) and this year I'm trying to figure out what I want to be so taking a year of Geology could make me want to be it finally.

Here's to a good 2007. Or 2008. Or 2009. Or 2010. Or...

by WalrusMan on Jan 3, 2007 10:46 AM PST up reply actions

Re: [bad geological puns]

I think you should be geology, that would be cool.

by Snof on Jan 4, 2007 12:55 AM PST up reply actions

Geology

Yeah, I stumbled across an Intro to Geol class at HSU and I was hooked. Chances are you will have a better office (the outdoors) then your friends, and probably enjoy what you are doing a whole lot more. I wouldnt trade what I am doing for anything, short of becoming a race car driver when I grow up. Also, my friend had a top that she would frequently wear, it had "Gneiss Chert" on the front.

If worms had daggers, birds wouldn't f*ck with 'em

by the degenerate on Jan 5, 2007 4:50 PM PST up reply actions

Re: My Grades?

Will I get straight A's again this semester? Stayed tuned.

Oh my. That is sig-worthy. Unless it was intentional. Then it was merely clever.

by Grant Brisbee on Jan 2, 2007 12:25 PM PST up reply actions

Re: My Grades?

Always wondered about that Swisher fellow. ;)

yob

by Sayhey on Jan 2, 2007 1:06 PM PST up reply actions

Re: My Grades?

It's good to see my grammar is continually improving...

SFDugout: it's where all the cool kids go.

by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jan 2, 2007 1:51 PM PST up reply actions

Re: My Grades?

I've got to believe you were shortchanged by your Psych teacher: anybody posting here is already "beyond freedom and dignity."

Waiting for Nate, Marcus, Nick, & Emmanuel

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Jan 2, 2007 12:54 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Grades

This is my first post on the Mccovey Chronicles, so in a sense I am popping my posting cherry here.
As a Giants fan who overall gives the Giants a D- for this off season, I have to say that the best move the organization did was give Foolipe Alou the boot and replaced him with a manager like Bochy who seems to be a players manager and a decent strategist unlike his 2 predecessors who didn't know the difference between a rotten toothpick and a pitch out (In Bozo Bakers case).
I would have liked to see the Giants really go in a different direction,giving the youngsters a shot (Frandsen,Lewis,Linden etc) even if it meant giving up on the 2007 season, but now with the Zito signing it looks like they will be more competitive than the last season, which is a breath of fresh air.

Mordy From Monsey

by Mordy From Monsey on Jan 2, 2007 2:20 PM PST reply actions

Re: Grades

Actually, Alou knew perfectly well the difference between a rotten toothpick and a pitch out, and a double switch, and a statistical matchup, and the bullpen...

He knew what all these things were. He just wasn't sure how to use them. Especially the toothpick. I'll always remember that day he looked at it and said "this goes where?".

To be fair, though, that confusion might have been because I actually told him that it went somewhere other than his mouth.

The best part was when he finally believed me.

Coming to you by proxy

by howtheyscored on Jan 2, 2007 3:05 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Grades

I agree that moving Felipe into an advisory role and away from the bench was one of the best moves we made. Although I would have preferred if the Giants hired Washington or Wotus to manage the team.

Bochy like Baker is known as a players manager, but from what I've skimmed at the Gas Lamp he seemed to over think everything. His propensity to use righty/lefty matchups surely will cause some of us to start ramming our heads against the nearest wall.

I have no doubt that Bochy will handle our bullpen more successfully than Baker did, but both men are able to get further with less talent than most managers.

The offseason: A time of hope, sorta.

by noahthek on Jan 3, 2007 7:02 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Grades

The only grade I'll quibble with is Roberts. I think he's valuable enough to be upgraded to a "B" for the short term. His EQAs the last two years: .281 and .282.

I like Linden, too, but he's risky and, as a fourth outfielder, he's bound to get lots of playing time behind the injury-prone Barry anyway.

by Dan from NM on Jan 2, 2007 6:23 PM PST reply actions

In Defense of Pedro

Yes, he's a terrible hitter. Taken in isolation, there is just no defense for including him on any team that has playoff aspirations.

Stick him in the 7'th hole behind 2 or 3 guys with a decent OBP, and he can be productive. Molina hitting 8'th may change the equation a bit, but why would you want Pedro drawing walks in front of Matheny and the pitcher anyway?

Whether he is overpaid for a role playing #7 hitter is debateable, but for the right price, he's useful in that role.

BTW, his offseason hitting lessons only need to be marginally effective for him to end up right back in 90+ RBI territory which ain't at all bad for a #7 hitter.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 2, 2007 7:40 PM PST reply actions

Re: In Defense of Pedro

That may be all well and good Doc. But Fleas. Outs! Outs. Lots and lots of outs. Strike, GIDP, Ground, Fly, Pop, and Foul outs. Way too many of 'em. And ugly ones at that. And he's good for making them in a matter of seconds, before the pitcher can even pull on his windbreaker. His outs being particularly hard to watch, and seemingly always at crucial times in the game. That is just irrititating. But understandable within the context of the difficulty of hitting major league pitching -- even if it is in the National League. But his outs are infuriating! Because it is little different than some idiot repeatedly stepping off the curb in front of a garbage truck against the light. Time and time again Fleas look's all perplexed when he continues to get his ass runover by slop in the dirt.

How can you pay somebody with this insane behavior $5 million per year!

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 2, 2007 8:28 PM PST up reply actions

Because.....

In spite of all that, Feliz seems to be able to produce his share of runs and a bit more. He compensates for his outs by making a fairly high percentage of his hits for extra bases. Extra base hits drive in runs and lead to runs scored more per capita than simply getting on base or not making an out.

if he's hitting in the top 3 of the batting order, the outs are disastrous. They don't hurt quite so much in the 7 hole because simply getting on base isn't likely to produce anything there anyway. What you want out of the #7 hole is XBH's and Pedro gets a few of those, enough to make him worth keeping around.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 2, 2007 10:16 PM PST up reply actions

Forbidden Subject

RBIs were eradicated on this site years ago and relegated to nothing more than perhaps a cold front indicator by a unanimous vote of the statheads on this site.

by Moggeee on Jan 2, 2007 11:55 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Forbidden Subject

Do you have to have a secret password to post about RBIs, because if you do then it needs to be changed - the present one isn't working. Some of us still write about RBIs, Saves, Holds, and all kinds of forbidden stats. This is a Giants site isn't it? Or is it only for statheads? Myself, I'd rather talk about the Giants and baseball than the misuse of statistics, but if we have to go over the same ground, that's ok too.

yob

by Sayhey on Jan 3, 2007 12:53 AM PST up reply actions

I furtively look both ways and...

Give you a vigourous, secret handshake.

by Moggeee on Jan 3, 2007 1:00 AM PST up reply actions

A foreign operative intrudes

Hmmmm...Vigour? Must have been a vigorous, British, secret handshake.

by Moggeee on Jan 3, 2007 1:03 AM PST up reply actions

Re: A foreign operative intrudes

Vinegar? I love a good vinegar. Shaken well with a good oil, of course. <whispers> Win Shares, Vorp, OPS+ </whisper> Now do I get a key to the secret chat room for statheads? I've a few questions I'd like to talk over. Like who is David Wellis and why are the Giants trying to sign him? Or why does every post about a Giant great have to include the derisive term "Flippy"? And just what is so damn interesting about fielding a team of underpaid rookies instead of older players (including 28 year olds and older.) Do half the posters lose money when a Giant's player gets a raise? Or is there some special reward for winning cheap? I can go on, but let me start with those.

yob

by Sayhey on Jan 3, 2007 1:39 AM PST up reply actions

Could have been a sour taste in our mouths

It was a relief to see Sabean at least spend through his budget, even if he didn't assemble the best possible team.

Had Sabean saved the cash this year and thrown a bunch of rooks out there, what were the chances the money would have been applied to a blockbuster 2008?

Minimal, I tell you.

Magowan and partners would have lined their pockets with the excess.

And garlic fries and seat prices STILL would have gone up.

by Moggeee on Jan 3, 2007 1:47 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Forbidden Subject

I'm with you on this one. It's so strange to me that getting on base in any way is treated as the most special thing in the world, but actually driving in those who get on base is just seen as being in the right place at the right time. There's much more to it than that.

Take someone like Soriano. Apart from last year, his OBP was fairly low. However, not only does he get a bunch of extra-base hits, but he also gets himself into scoring position on many of his singles (or infrequent) walks by stealing second. Contrast this with JT Snow, who walked a lot, but virtually never stole bases, and could barely make it home from second on a double.

Driving in runs matters. Maybe RBI conversion or something along those lines is a better measure than total RBIs, but the stat is by no means meaningless or just due to luck. Avoiding outs might be important, but scoring runs is more important, and power hitting scores runs the quickest. Hypotheticals, potential, extrapolations, etc., have their place, but there are certain guys who drive in a ton of runs every year, and they're a big part of how ballgames are won.

by Josh from The New Giant Thrill on Jan 3, 2007 8:59 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Forbidden Subject

The thing is that Pedro Feliz had his RBI's because he had by far the most at bats on the team outside of the first two, statistically RBI-less spots in the batting order, and he routinely hit in or behind the heart of the order. It's not a worthless stat, but we have to understand why Pedro, an infuriatingly bad hitter with men in scoring position, had so many RBIs as opposed to a guy like Soriano who actually raked while he wasn't walking.

Coming to you by proxy

by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2007 9:49 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Forbidden Subject

I definitely wasn't defending Feliz with what I wrote. My main problem with Feliz is that he often does either the opposite of what's needed or just things that don't help much. When we need runners on base, he flails at three straight balls and Ks, and when we need to move the runner along, he grounds into double plays.

As for RBIs, another important aspect is when they occur. I don't have stats to back it up, but from watching many games over the past few season, it just seems like many of his home runs and RBIs come either when the team is far ahead or way behind. In other words, they don't matter much.

by Josh from The New Giant Thrill on Jan 3, 2007 10:00 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Forbidden Subject

I didn't mean to sound like you were defending, I just wanted to add to what you were saying.

Coming to you by proxy

by howtheyscored on Jan 3, 2007 10:31 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Because.....

I hear what you're saying, but I don't subscribe to the theory that his outs hurt less because they are at the bottom of the order, and the 8 and 9 hitters are worse anyway so what the hell. Well in the context of looking at the bottom third of the order and the bottom third of the order only, sure...you have a point. But, and this is a big but, what his outs prevent and delay are the turning over of the order so the top of the lineup comes up again sooner, putting more strain on opposing pitching. Any pitcher will tell you that the guys in the top of the order are going to get their share of hits off of you. Thats why they're major leaguers and get paid so much more than everybody else generally.

A pitcher will also tell you that out of maybe 100 pitches thrown, he is going to make a handful of mistakes. Lets be arbitrary and say 10, resulting in 10 baserunners, and 3 runs. Thats a whip of 1.11 and an era of 3.00 and probably 7 strikeouts and 3 walks.

Now lets change just one thing. Still 100 pitches, only 10 mistakes resulting in 10 baserunners and 3 runs. But instead of 9 innings, its 4 innings. Obviously a completely different kind of game.

The first game is what you have when the 7,8,9 hitters don't turn the lineup over.

The second game is what you have when the 7,8,9 hitters turn the lineup over. You're on pace to score 7 runs, get deep into the other guys' pen, and keep the bad guys out on the field for long stretches of time--particularly helpful in July, August and September, while your guys are in the shade sipping tall cool ones listening to Tim Flannery mp3's. With Pedro in the lineup, this rarely happens, and he looks like crap not doing what he is supposed to on top of it. In spite of his beautiful defense which is truly Gold Glove worthy.

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 3, 2007 8:16 AM PST up reply actions

Eric Van

Eric Van is a guy who I hadn't heard of before last week, but is apparently well known in sabermetric circles and was an early practitioner of the science/art. He got involved in a discussion on minorleagueball.com about run creation and how to measure it. Here's the link if you are interested. It's a pretty long thread.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/12/29/175027/73

Anyway, I was a bit surprised that some of his comments seemed to back me up on the importance of context and the undervaluing of HR's. The example he used was of Tony Armas who hit a lot of HR's but also made a ton of outs. His comment was that if you had a lineup of 9 Tony Armas's, it would be a pretty awful lineup, but if you put him in a lineup behind 3 Wade Boggs, he can be a very productive hitter.

Armas hit more HR's than Pedro Feliz, but the principle is still the same. Free swinging guys who get XBH's can be useful if placed properly in a lineup.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 3, 2007 9:51 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Eric Van

Wow, a great link to DrBGiantsFan defending bad statistics!

Tony Armas SLG, career .452, ISO .101
Pedro Feliz SLG, career .436, ISO .084

ISO is isolated power = slg - avg, i.e, extra bases/AB.

Armas = way better than pedro especially when you correct for eras in which they played (OPS+ of 102 vs. 86) - league avg SLG for Pedro .432, Armas, .386.

Feliz isn't even that good of a power hitter. He's a barely above average power hitter (and below average singles hitter, and worthless on-base guy).

You don't have to be undervaluing his HRs to call him a sucky hitter for a 3B. If he played a decent SS, he'd be worth $5M/year.

I think he's worth about $2M, and I would prefer he get like 250 PAs instead of 6,000,000.

by zenbitz on Jan 3, 2007 10:11 AM PST up reply actions

Wait a Minute!

I think I did point out that Armas hit more HR's than Feliz. I think in the current scheme of things, Armas would get a lot more than a 1 year $5M contract too.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 3, 2007 10:15 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Grades

Oh, boy. Not this again.

Brian Sabean for President! Whatever keeps him away from the Giants.

by Punch Rockgroin on Jan 2, 2007 11:01 PM PST reply actions

Quiet in that Back Row!

So....Didn't do your homework, Biggee?

by Moggeee on Jan 2, 2007 11:59 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Quiet in that Back Row!

Just awaiting some good old fashioned Pedro discussion. It should be fun.

Brian Sabean for President! Whatever keeps him away from the Giants.

by Punch Rockgroin on Jan 3, 2007 12:06 AM PST up reply actions

Pedro comes to bat and it's...

The Pause, the Guffaws, that refreshens.

$5 million is a fair price to pay for the tragicomic theater that Fleas brings to Gameday Threads.

by Moggeee on Jan 3, 2007 12:19 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Pedro comes to bat and it's...

somebody's turn to die!

I hate Pedro at bats. I hate root canals, autopsies, car wrecks, funerals, dog bites, flat beer, fat people farting, ring worms, skin tumors, stepping in cat shit, getting lost in jurrasic park and did I mention Pedro Abs?

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 3, 2007 7:52 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Pedro comes to bat and it's...

so just fat people farts? doesn't that just mean that you don't like fat people?

by someguynamedg on Jan 3, 2007 8:47 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Pedro comes to bat and it's...

Maybe you aren't aware, but skinny people's farts smell lovely. Not sure that science has found an explanation yet, but I bet it has something to do with God wanting us to hate fat people.

by Snof on Jan 4, 2007 1:01 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Grades

I love fat people and skinny people. Somehow the extra poundage seems to add extra smellage. The additional inches of colon combined with the beer and pizza probably have something to do with it.

Save The Pitcher. Save The World

by E Ticket on Jan 3, 2007 9:42 AM PST reply actions

A Gassy Theory, at best

I read in this that to E, all people are smelly.

But fat people make it up in volume.

by Moggeee on Jan 3, 2007 1:52 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Grades

Bonds
Short Term A-
Long Term C

Well, there's a short term and a long term to everything. Short Term, it's $10 million bucks for certain .900+ OPS. The only way it doesn't grade an A+ is the injury risk of a 42/43 old with horrible knees.
The long term, is the $8-$10 million paid out over the next couple of years. It doesn't help.

Durham
Short Term A
Long Term A

$14.5 million over two years for a plus hitter, who plays an important position. One of the very best signings of the off-season by anyone.

Pedro Feliz
Short Term D
Long Term A

It doesn't rate an F short term, because $5 million isn't much nowadays. It's only one year and it could have been 3 or 4 years, so it's got to be an A, long term. Thank God he sucked the 2nd half or we would have gotten the former.

Dave Roberts
Short Term B-
Long Term D

There really weren't many, if any, OF options out there. This could have been a lot worse. But $16 million over three seasons for somewhat below average production; I don't see the point.

Bengie Molina
Short Term D
Long Term D-

THREE YEARS! Way overpaid for the market. And I just don't see the big upgrade over Notgardo and a decent sub. Prove me wrong, Bengie!

Rich Aurilia
Short Term B
Long Term C+

Short term is the first year. Good for a guy who can play many important postions and had a 115 OPS+ last season. His incentive influenced contract will pay him around $5.5 million in '08, however. He'll be 36, is challenged at the difficult positions and hasn't had two good offensive years back-to-back in many, many years.

Brain Klesko
Short Term A
Long Term A

Tiny contract for a guy who could easily give a 115 OPS+ at a postion that desperately needed to be upgraded. The simplicity is beautiful.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on Jan 5, 2007 9:00 AM PST reply actions