Are the Giants a .500 club?

by Kid Fresh on Jan 19, 2007 5:05 AM PST Comment 11 comments

INTRODUCTION

Do you think the Giants will finish 2007 above .500? I would put the "over-under" on the 2007 Giants (with Bonds) at 82 wins. Personally, I would take the over. I think the Giants are going to win around 86 games and take the West. Be warned: this is coming from Mr. Rainbows & Lollipops himself, who also thought the Giants had a shot the last two years. (Actually, they did- they just imploded during crucial stretches). Let's take a look at the bullpen, rotation, defence, offence, bench, and coaching.

BULLPEN: D+

The most efficient relief pitcher of 2006 (Stanton) is gone. So it seems as though the pen is doomed for suckage again, right?Sanchez, Correia, Hennessey, Chulk, Wilson, and Sadler are all young and could impress. Or not. Linecum could close. Or start. Or spend the year in the minors. At least Worrell is gone. Hard for Benitez to pitch worse- especially in his contract year. There will be some surprises, some disappointments, some injuries, and perhaps a trade or two. But right now, just can't gitve the pen a passing grade.

ROTATION: B+

2006 basic numbers:

Schmidt- 11-9 3.59 ERA
Cain- 13-12, 4.15
Morris- 10-15, 4.98
Lowry 7-10, 4.74
Wright 6-10, 5.19

I firmly believe that every single spot in the rotation will improve- higher win totals and lower ERA, top to bottom.

Does anyone want to take the over-under that Zito wins more than 11? Lowry more than 7? Cain's ERA is lower than 4.15?
Linecum, Sanchez, or Ortiz stepping up could turn this into an "A+" rotation, and the backbone of the team.

DEFENCE: B

"the defense..a shade better than last year..."

2007 vs. 2006:

Molina > Alphonszo
Aurilia > Hillendbrand
Durham = Durham
Vizquel = Vizquel
Feliz = Feliz
Winn > Alou
Roberts > Finley
Bonds = Bonds

Yes, the old guys are all "a step slower," but Winn and Bonds are coming off injuries and should actually be healthier and better.

I'm not arguing the defence will be fantastic, just slightly better than how the Giants ended 2006.

OFFENCE: C+

As for the line-up- I would describe it as "solid, not spectucular." From top to bottom:

Roberts is the most exciting and well-suited lead-off hitter the Giants have had in a long time. Bochy knows how to maximize his platoon skills.

Vizquel will probably decline, and might bounce between #2 and #7 slot.

Love Aurilia, but Richie hitting third is pathetic. Should be Durham- much faster, way better OBP = more runs.

Bonds, healthier and with everything to prove, could be much better than last year... (if he is with the Giants, that is!)

Klesko could surprise- won't do worse than Hillendbrand in terms of OPS.

Winn in the six hole could rebound nicely, off-setting any decline from Durham & Vizquel.

Molina hitting seventh is an asset, not a liability.

Feliz hitting 8th, dittto.

BENCH: A-

Bench should be much stronger than last year:

Linden > Finley
Alphonszo > Greene
Frandsden > Vizcaino
Sweeney = Sweeney (Greeney?),
Aurilia, Kelsko, or Feliz off bench = +

COACHING: C

Bochy is merely average, but Felipe was so awful at the end of last year, this looks to be an upgrade in bullpen management, tactical decisions , player development, pitching changes, and general motivation and communication. The effort put forth by the players should be much better this year.

IN CONCLUSION

For 2007, I could see the Giants finishing in 3rd again, due to better divisional competition. But in the Wild West, anything can happen, and 1st place is not out of the question. I definitely think the Giants will improve on last year's win total, to finish comfortably above .500. And hey, if someone steps up in the bullpen, if the rotation lives up to the hype, if Bonds smacks 30, if Winn and Klesko rebound, if, if, if. Hell, it's January. Hope springs eternal. If I can't be optimistic now, when?

Poll

Will the Giants finish better than .500?

Yes

44 votes

No

14 votes

58 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

0 recs | Comment 11 comments

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Comments

Re: Are the Giants a .500 club?

My only real disagreement is with your rating of Roberts as a better centerfielder than Finley. He may be in Winn's class as a defender, but he isn't close to Finley - even the 40 year old version. Finley was a bust on offense (still much better than Edgardo would have been) and I know he can be a royal pain in the ass, but his defense was excellent.

I also agree that based on last year numbers and the departure of Stanton that the bullpen can't be graded very high, but I like the chances of this area of the team turning it around and becoming a strength. It has to start with either the trading of Armando or his transformation into the guy the Giants hoped they signed two years ago. I realistically counting on a trade. After that, there is a wealth of talented young arms that should improve as the year goes on.

I'll leave the evaluation of Alou alone, and just say we disagree. Over all we do agree that the Giants can contend and if things break right could win the division. Assuming, of course, Bonds is signed.

yob

by Sayhey on Jan 19, 2007 9:01 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Are the Giants a .500 club?

I actually agree for the most part, though I believe the sum of all these parts actually adds up to a club that finsishes significantly under .500, but I do appreciate yours and everyone elses extreme optimism.

While the bullpen currently is a weakness I agree with sayhey that it could quickly turn into a strength. I believe that Benitez will be traded to the Marlins in Spring Training, after that the fate of the bullpen lies in finding a closer; Wilson, Sadler, Lincecum (though not permenantly) and I believe Corriea all have the ability to close, if anyone of them steps up and becomes a solid closer the rest of the pen should fall into place. Currently C- but potential for B+

I think your significantly over rating the defense, though it is better than last year, Aurilia, Durham, Roberts and Bonds are all below average defenders at their positions and I have serious doubts about Molina, Winn and Feliz as well...which really only leaves Vizquel as the only above average fielder on the team. D grade

The Bench is solid, the starting five are nice though its a syndrome amongst the giants community to significantly overate the starting pitching before the season, so i'll take a wait and see approach to that aspect. I will say that I think Morris will rebound to a league average pitcher, Lowry is due for a breakout season, Zito will benefit by coming over to the NL, but if Cain cant harness that great curve that he flashed last year he could have a significant sophemore slump and though Ortiz will begin the season as the number 5 pitcher he will be gone by May but not before costing the Giants 4 or 5 wins...thats not to say I don't like Ortiz, I love the guy, I just dont think his numbers the last two seasons are a fluke.

Bochy is better that Alou...but thats not saying a whole lot but im going to wait to see what he does this year to truly judge how good he is.

All in all I would set the Giants topping out at 75-87 but if things really go the Giants way we could break even.

by Keenlow on Jan 19, 2007 10:57 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

If the over/under is at .500..

I'd have to go over. This is a team that has its strenghts and has its weaknesses, but with its strong starting rotation and bench I think it will outweigh its potentially bad bullpen and mediocre lineup.

Here's to a good 2007. Or 2008. Or 2009. Or 2010. Or...

by WalrusMan on Jan 19, 2007 11:15 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: If the over/under is at .500..

With a very solid starting rotation and a subpar offense, the fate of the giants rests on the bullpen. There are going to be a lot of close, low scoring games, so the giants will be successfull only if they can find someone to close and the rest of the young bullpen can get it done.

I've been suffering from post traumatic stress disorder ever since Game 6.

by April3rdLifeBegins on Jan 19, 2007 1:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Are the Giants a .500 club?

Your conclusion sounds about right. .500 should be doable and I suspect we'll flirt with contention for June and July and fade around August 1.

by eugene on Jan 19, 2007 2:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Are the Giants a .500 club?

Some excellent feedback, thanks guys. Great to get second opinions, and on second thought, I would indeed change my bullpen grade to "C-", and lower my defense grade to "C+"

So OVERALL Giants team grade: B-. (Thinking of .500 as a "C")

by Kid Fresh on Jan 19, 2007 3:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Dare you weigh facts & change your opinion?

Flipper-Flopper!

(Ooops. I think Grant recently outlawed mudslinging.)

by Moggeee on Jan 20, 2007 3:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Are the Giants a .500 club?

I think they'll finish above .500 but not win the division.

DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Jan 19, 2007 10:48 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Double Indemnity

I can't rid myself of the feeling I read something vaguely like this the other night.

Okay, you're on. I'll take the over on Zito at 11. Not so much because I believe he'll be better than Schmidt was last year, though. It's just that it will be such a disaster if he doesn't impress right away. Zito needs 14+ wins for Magowan (and us guys) to keep rationalizing the $20 million a year he'll keep on getting, even when our children's children are watching the Gyros.

And operating under the guiding principle that nothing plays out on the field the way it looks on paper, I say we end up with a fantastic bullpen, less-than-average starting pitching, and a dynamic offense that scores lots of runs and baffles the experts.

by Moggeee on Jan 20, 2007 3:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Are the Giants a .500 club?

I don't know where you come from, but here in the land of reality, a passing grade is exactly what you gave the bullpen.

D means DONE, baby!!
D+ is just icing on the cake.

Hats for bats, keep bats warm !

by PacBellBoozer on Jan 20, 2007 11:20 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Are the Giants a .500 club?

Kid Fresh is right. The question is the bullpen. I see this team as above .500 with an average bullpen. If the bullpen is bad as last season, they fall to .500, but maybe worse, since the rest of the team may give up due to extreme aggrivation. With a decent bullpen (and assuming Bonds signs and the injuries aren't extreme) this team should compete in the West and in the WC race.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on Jan 25, 2007 12:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs