PECOTA time

by Evan on Jan 16, 2007 11:09 AM PST Comment 13 comments

Baseball Prospectus's 2007 projections are out. At a glance, the hitter projections are very encouraging, the pitcher projections (which are much less reliable) not so much.

Quick summary:

Zito: 4.22 ERA

big comeback from Randy Winn

substantial power dropoff from Molina

Durham holds on to most of his improvement

Linden's the third best hitter on the team

Pedro Feliz (just to spite us!) has a career year

The real jawdroppers are the low-level prospect projections, which are so good that I wonder whether there was a glitch of some kind. Try these on for size:

Ben Copeland: .274/.333/.412

Emmanuel Burris: .281/.331/.344

Antoan Richardson: .289/.348/.385

Frandsen, Lewis & Schierholtz look good as well.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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And then there's this

Tim Lincecum

114 innings
143 strikeouts
3.18 ERA

Comparables: Francisco Rodriguez, Kerry Wood, Pedro Martinez, Juan Pizarro

by Evan on Jan 16, 2007 11:12 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Pizarro

In Pizarro world, Tim am big bust like Brien Taylor! Pizarro like him very much!

<(-'.'-)>

by lunaticfridge on Jan 16, 2007 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Pizarro

Are we dealing with some sort of copyright laws here?

Coming to you by proxy

by howtheyscored on Jan 16, 2007 5:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...Ugh

Fridge, he learn 'em English from Chulk.

by Moggeee on Jan 16, 2007 11:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: PECOTA time

Keep in that PECOTA doesn't work well on players without a lot of experience, hence the big projections for Tim the enchanter, Richardson, Copeland, Burris, and Anderson.

The Dodgers are evil.

by irwin on Jan 16, 2007 11:18 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: PECOTA time

I can only hope they're a year off with that Feliz prediction. If that pans out he'll be with us for years.

by rocketdog on Jan 16, 2007 12:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

How accurate have these projections been in past?

by wilriv21 on Jan 16, 2007 12:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: How accurate?

PECOTA and ZiPS do a pretty good job projecting when compared to other systems out there. Note, however, that they're not that much better than Marcels, which are just regression toward the mean, with no further adjustments.

David
SPORTSZILLA - kickass sports writing

by David Arnott on Jan 16, 2007 1:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: How accurate have these projections been

All of the good prediction systems (PECOTA, ZiPS, Shandler, et al) are ~70% accurate within a few percent of each other. That seems to be about the maximum threshold.

The systems just can't be that accurate, because they can't predict injuries, head cases, angry managers, etc. Plus, (albeit rarely) guys just come out with outlier career years. Who knows when that will happen.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jan 16, 2007 4:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: PECOTA time

Of course Winn's going to have a "comeback" year. He stunk last year, even below and his BABIP was awful. So, this is one of those easy ones. I suspect that Morris will also have better numbers than last year's.

Either way, go Giants.

by Kent on Jan 16, 2007 3:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Re: PECOTA time

I plugged some IP and plate appearance estimates for the NL West into the PECOTA spreadsheet, and it looks pretty bleak...

Team EqA
--
.277 San Diego
.273 Arizona
.273 San Francisco
.268 Los Angeles
.266 Colorado

Team EqERA
--
4.28 Arizona
4.38 San Diego
4.51 Los Angeles
4.58 Colorado
4.76 San Francisco

Apply the SF park factor to our already pessimistic pitching projections, and you get some brutal EqERAs. If, as PECOTA is predicting, Cain and Zito are league average (with higher EqERAs than Rodrigo Lopez, for chrissakes), Lowry and Morris are very bad, and Ortiz and Hennessey are throwing with their left hand, then, yes, it's going to be a long year.

Thanks for the info, PECOTA, but I'm going to go back to worrying about the team's offense if that's okay with you.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Jan 16, 2007 3:56 PM PST reply actions 0 recs