Giants WHIP Leaders & Free Agent Replacements
by Kid Fresh on Sep 3, 2006 5:56 AM PDT
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PrintGiants WHIP Leaders & Free Agent Replacements:
1.02 Chulk- Good, cheap bullpen guy. Sign him for next year.
1.22 Schmidt- Will his greatness come at too steep a price? Is his greatness now just "really goodness," masquerading as greatness on reputation alone?
1.27 Henessey- Is it just me, or does Henessey seem more effective out of the pen than as a starter? Definition of "spot starter/6th man." Solid campaign at any rate.
1.28 Correia- Entrenched in the bullpen. Young, cheap, effective. Kudos to Giants minor leage system to turning out the occasional pitcher.
1.29 Morris- Surprised me that his WHIP was this low. Morris is overpaid, but a good innings eater guy, team guy, ideal #5 starter.
1.29 Cain- Almost everything we could have hoped for in Cain's rookie season: double-digit wins, flashes of brilliance, way fewer hits than IP. (Well, we all secretly wished for 20 wins, but this season Cain showed is he could win 20 one day...)
1.32 Sanchez- The mid-season demotion to AAA was one of the most baffling moves in Giants front office history. At that point, he was the only guy in the pen consistently dominating... so they send him down to Fresno? Felipe and Sabean worship at the altar of veteran savvy, and roles defined by salary instead of performance.
1.34 Lowry- Okay for a back-of-the rotation lefty. We all hope the "real" Lowry emerges next season. Could win 15-20.
In my opinion, the above eight pitchers have all earned a roster spot with the Giants. Hopefully, Schmidt can be retained, or replaced with Zito. Every staff needs an ace, an anchor. Cain and Lowry are not there yet; Sanchez, Correia, and Henessey are unproven commodoties, and Morris, while sporting a beard, is really a 5th starter in disguise.
Wright, Stanton, Kline, Worrell, Wilson, Munter, Tachner, and especially Benitez have all sucked this year. In my world, the Giants would be looking for 2 solid free agent pitchers, and let the youngins fight it out for the last openings. Of course, in my world, the Giants would spend like the Yankees and plug Soriano into 2B, Carlos Lee into 1B, Torii Hunter into CF, re-sign Bonds and Schmidt, re-sign Durham, Feliz, and Hillendbrand as bench players, bring back Crazy Crab, change the name of the park to "Mays Field," bring back Scott Garrelts as a pitching coch, Will Clark as 1B coach, Robby Thompson as 3B coach, Brenley as bench coach, and myself as manager, of course.
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I think I might macro this.....
Career Trajectory?
The two who really stand out on the Giants would be Matt Cain, who is clearly on a upward trajectory, and Jason Schmidt, who is almost as clearly on a downward trajectory. I think you can fairly safely add Matt Morris to the downward trajectory list.
Hennessey, Correia and Lowry are tougher calls. All 3 should still be on an upward curve, but hard to tell.
Lowry has scuffled all year but has gotten by with "grittiness"(now there's a measureable stat! LOL!) and that funky August thing he does. I have a suspicion that his side has bothered him most of the year, but of course, can't prove it. At any rate, it's a moot issue since he's signed up for several more seasons.
Hennessey and Correia fall in the small sample size category. Here's where observation may be more important than stats. Hennessey has always pitched better than his stuff looks while Correia has almost always pitched worse than his looks. This is a crapshoot, but if I had to guess, I'd say Correia has the bigger upside.
Relief pitchers are notoriously volatile in their performances. Again, this may be due to injury factors and psychological issues, but I suspect it's mostly due to sample size. I'd keep Chulk because he seems like a league average reliever at a relatively cheap price, but any stat, including the 1.02 WHIP is ridiculously skewed by sample size.
If we could sign Jason Schmidt to a 2 year contract at his current salary, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Since it will probably take a 4 year contract at a higher salary, I'd pass since the liklihood of him taking a Kevin Brown trajectory is extremely high. Of the other FA starters out there, Barry Zito is the only one really worth considering and his price is going to be in the stratosphere. Much as I'd like to think about a rotation with Zito at the top, the better part of valor would be to let Hennessey, Correia, Lincecum and Sanchez battle it out for the final two rotation slots in ST.
Re: Career Trajectory?
Although I was secretly hoping you'd throw in "multifactorial" somewhere in there....
by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Sep 3, 2006 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Have you stated...
What Would I Do?
The proverbial elephant in the room is Barry Bonds who is creeping within 25 HR's of the all-time record. Whether you give him the opportunity to break the record as a Giant and how much you are willing to pay him for that pretty much dictates everything else. I would hope that Barry would take something like the $5M we already owe him in deferred money plus perhaps another $5M deferred to the end of the current deferred payment plan, but that's probably wishful thinking.
I would offer arbitration to Schmidt and Durham, but no long term deal. If they accept, they are still good players, but you aren't on the hook for a long term deal. If they don't accept, you get the extra draft picks.
Definitely buy out Finley's option and hope the Alous retire. Hilly and Feliz are tough ones. The alternatives to Hilly at 1B would be the Niekro/Sweeney platoon, which may be just as productive for a whole lot less money, or go after Nomar which would reguire sinking a lot of money into an aging, oft injured player. Again, I might offer Hilly arbitration but no longterm deal and use Sweeney/Niekro as the backup plan. I think I would let Feliz go. I like his power, but it's too sporadic and we need more OBP in the lineup.
I'd target Frank Catalanotto and Mark DeRosa as FA signings. They both bring good plate discipline and some power. Cat is a LH bat while DeRosa is RH. DeRosa would play 3B.
The dilemma in my plan is that if Durham and Schmidt don't accept arbitration, that frees up plenty of money to go after Alfonso Soriano, who I really want a lot. By the time you know whether they are going to accept or not, it might be too late to recover. I guess Sabes needs to ascertain early on if he has a shot at Soriano and if he does, try to get it done and then kiss the draft picks goodbye.
If Schmidt doesn't come back, I would not sign any other FA starters and let Hennessey, Correia, Lincecum and Sanchez compete for the last two rotation slots. Perhaps bring in a couple of dumpster dives.
The achilles heal of all this is the bullpen. I looked up the potential FA relievers and it is a dismal bunch indeed. There are absolutely no closers on the market unless you count Eric Gagne. The middle/setup scene is almost as dismal. I think you have to hang onto the pen we've got and hope Benitez comes around or some kids step up.
Best case scenario:
3B Mark DeRosa. I don't care if he's slow, the man gets on base.
SS Omar Vizquel. No explanation necessary.
2B Alfonso Soriano. Again, no explanation necessary.
LF Barry. Pray that he passes Aaron so he can retire at the end of the year.
RF Frank Catalanotto. Moves up to #4 when Barry is out. Moves down to #6 against LHP's.
1B Hilly. Moves up to #5 against LHP's and when Barry is out.
CF Randy Winn. Arrgh!!!
C Notgardo. What a breath of fresh air he's been! Not holding my breath for a repeat of his performance this year though. Matheny could come back and Alfonso could backup instead of Greene. I'm hoping for Matheny to retire.
Bench:
Linden- first option when Barry can't go. Would bat 6'th when he starts.
Sweeney
Frandsen
Greene or Alfonzo depending on if Matheny comes back.
Ellison.
SP:
Cain
Morris
Lowry
2 out of Hennessey, Correia, Lincecum and Sanchez.
Bulllpen:
Benitez
Stanton
Chulk
Wilson
Sadler
Kline? Henny?, Correia?, Sanchez? Dumpster Dive?
I know it's not great, but it keeps us competetive and keeps fans interest without sacrificing any of the young pitching.
For 2008, gotta believe Lincecum will be ready and hope for a couple out of Schierholtz, Sanders, Burriss, Eddy M-E or Travis to be ready.
Re: What Would I Do?
Maybe you don't get the draft picks. It seems Free Agent compensation is on the table in the Collective Bargaining Agreement talks.
FA Compensation
Re: What Would I Do?
I also wouldn't totally rule out giving EME a good look at 1B in ST if he's finally healthy. He hasn't had the minor league AB's, but I think he could probably out hit Niekro as a 1B platoon partner with Sweeney.
Outside of that, I'd like to see Durham resigned for 2 years, and Linden get the starts in RF.
Trades
I agree
by GiantJim on Sep 4, 2006 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Also...
Stranded
I agree with Kenshin
Plus, in what world has Steve Kline sucked? ERA of 3.43, ERA+ of 127, healthy FIP, plenty of ground balls, etc etc. He's probably the best pitcher in the pen. And Stanton's been fine as well. Kline is going to get a multi-year deal for good money from someone.
Sanchez was sent down to stretch out his arm, so he can join the rotation next year or the year after. I applaud this move. If the guy's as good as we think, then much better that he put up 200+ IP as a starter than 70 in the pen.
On Schmidt: Because of the differences between the leagues, it's only fair to compare him to other NL pitchers.
The guy is 7th in Ks, 13th in K/9, 8th in WHIP, 6th in ERA, 6th in ERA+ and 9th in FIP. He's a league leader in just about every category. This is a lot better than mere "goodness".
Re: I agree with Kenshin
Thankfully he's a good enough pitcher that his worst is servicable.
At this stage
Cain, Lowry, Sanchez, Lincecum and even Correia show good potential in the long run, but for next season the Giant's roatation projects to average at best, without Schmidt or another proven plus pitcher at the top.
Since the Giants have no postion player prospects, they should go ahead and aquire some veteran FAs at those positions, but spending the money for Schmidt or Zito would be a waste of money, at this point. Better to go with an average starting rotation for next season, and potentially a better one for the future, becasue a Schmidt or Zito wouldn't make them much better than .500.
by GiantJim on Sep 4, 2006 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Pitchers
As I indicated above, I agree with DrB that Schmidt is most likely on the way down. I'd do an incentive-based contract, but not a standard 3- or 4-year deal. At a reasonable price, for a few years, okay. But that limits what we can do to improve our offense.
I think Morris is still recovering from his surgery, and is improving as he goes along. I'm happy he'll be on the team for the next few years. He's no longer a prototypical #1 guy, but I'm okay with:
- Morris
- Cain
- Lowry
- Sanchez
- Hennessey/Correia/Lincecum(eventually)
by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Sep 3, 2006 8:06 AM PDT reply actions
Me too
Re: Giants WHIP Leaders
For everyone wanting to resign Schmidt for big money to have an "Ace", do you think he'll be better than Cain next year? I'm not so sure.
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