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Initial reactions

Instant reactions to a baseball draft are pretty much worthless. So, in order to properly enjoy the day, I've forced personal approval of the first day of the draft down my own throat. Here's how I did it:

Part 1 - Tim Lincecum

With a pick in the top third of the draft, you don't want to hear the newfound prospect referred to as a "no. 2 or 3 starter", or, "comparable to Woody Williams". You want pyrotechnics and flash. "Comparable to Mark Prior dipped into the River Styx", or, "Downside is as a no. 1 starter who shoots lightning bolts from his eyeballs." The guy linked to the Giants before the draft, Daniel Bard, was the former. Tim Lincecum is closer to the latter.

The knowledgeable Dave Cameron pegs him as:

...Kerry Wood, but 5 inches shorter, 100 pounds lighter, and with worse mechanics.

It wasn't intended to be a flattering comment, but it gives you an idea of the stuff Lincecum features. Because he has an electric arm and is less than six feet tall, he must by law also be compared to Roy Oswalt. This is the well-documented Larry Bird Corollary, expanded to cover short pitchers in a different sport. This is not to be confused with the Pedro Martinez Conundrum, which covers every skinny Dominican with a changeup and 90+ fastball.

From a purely emotional standpoint, I'd love to see the kid get a chance to relieve for the Giants right away. He could come up and join Jeremy Accardo, Jonathan Sanchez and Brian Wilson as a member of a dominant bullpen for the future and present. It would be the stuff of legends, and maybe a ballpark poster giveaway or two.  It would be a hard throwing bunch, to say the least.

That probably wouldn't be the rational thing to do. He's just finished an arduous college campaign that saw him worked like Livan Hernandez. He averaged about 4.5 BB/9, which has to be indicative of some control problems that still need to be ironed out. I wouldn't feel comfortable tossing him into the fire just yet. Plus, his stamina supposedly is an asset, as the talking heads on MLB.com's draft show mentioned he maintained his velocity well into his starts. This means he should be given every chance to start, and given all the time in the world to develop.

He's a risk. Funky delivery. Pretty obvious control problems. Heavy workload. I say Billy Wagner, you say Matt Anderson, but the arm is there. The idea he can help the Giants this year is a little far-fetched, but at least that possibility is in the back of our minds.

Other links (Thanks to DeadTeddy8):

Video of Lincecum
His collegiate stats

Part II - Emmanuel Burriss

Don't know a thing about him. I've seen the 100 seconds of video MLB.com had to offer, and he seemed like he used a baseball bat when at the plate. I'm pretty confident in that assessment. I've convinced myself to dream, though, and forecast the following two hitters atop the San Francisco lineup in 2009:

Marcus Sanders - 2B - .300/.420/.450, 72 SB
Emmanuel Burriss - SS - .290/.410/.440, 60 SB

Likelihood of happening? Just a little better than the Giants drafting Bradford Hinckley-Foster in the 3rd round of the 2024 draft, which would not only require John Hinckley and Jodie Foster to have a kid this year, but to have a kid who is preternaturally gifted in baseball as well. The idea, though, of having speed and on-base talent at the top of the order, and having the offensive production come from the middle infield, is a beautiful dream for sure.

I buy lottery tickets, too. I know the odds, and I'm a rational guy, but I think it's worth a dollar to spend five minutes thinking about what I'd do with the money. Big house. Indoor movie theatre. Outdoor batting cage. I've got plans. That isn't to say Burriss is such a long shot to succeed, that he's analogous to a lottery ticket. It's just pointing out the imagination I can have when wishcasting, and it's why I'm excited about the first two picks of the draft.

I'm curious as to the thoughts of the McCognoscenti. Was there a mid-rounder that caught your eye?

0 recs  |  Comment 46 comments

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Re: Initial reactions
Won't happen.  Foster's a total lesbo.

by dangjackson on Jun 6, 2006 4:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
You mean Drabek's a total lesbo.
"When I think of how many times the Enemy has tried to kill Gary Busey..."

by multiphasic on Jun 6, 2006 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
The Roy Oswalt Principle used to be known as the Billy Wagner Principle, you know.

by David Arnott on Jun 6, 2006 4:09 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
Thanks for the link, too, but we don't own sportszilla.com. We'll be moving to our own URL soon, but for now it's http://sportszilla.blogspot.com

by David Arnott on Jun 6, 2006 4:10 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Fixed
Blame my faulty memory, if you would.

by Grant on Jun 6, 2006 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
...Kerry Wood, but 5 inches shorter, 100 pounds lighter, and with worse mechanics.

And also, apparently, insane and hyperactive.  Nearest comparison: Dee Dee from "Dexter's Lab".

"When I think of how many times the Enemy has tried to kill Gary Busey..."

by multiphasic on Jun 6, 2006 4:16 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Jeez Grant...
You're slipping.  I was thinking that you'd either 1. Write about this in your FSN blog or 2. Leave this until tomorow and just use your Open Draft Thread for the excuse of your article for the day. :-P

Anyways I think Lincecum (did I spell that right?) would be an interesting addition to the bullpen, although perhaps not yet  We've got plenty of relievers.

Dancing Guy #4 turns me on.

by WalrusMan on Jun 6, 2006 4:20 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
The Giants seem to have plenty of young hard-throwing bullpen guys ready for this year. I'd rather they stick him in AA for the rest of this season (or shut him down). Then give him an outside shot at the rotation next ST.

by mxmob33 on Jun 6, 2006 4:28 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

LINCECUM!
As a husky (grad student) I was absolutely thrilled to see the Giants get this guy.  Word around huskyville was that Lincecum was a potential #1 overall pick and would go very high in the draft.  The fact we got him at 10 is amazing to me.  I almost shat my pants when I found out.

I saw this guy pitch against Arizona about a month ago, and all I can say is: GET EXCITED.  While he gave up a few runs (including a very loud homer) he found a groove and struck out about 12 guys and looked downright nasty.  

He did just come off a season where he threw a lot of innings, so I think he needs to rest now and we shouldn't think of him as a bullpen savior.  He can and should be a starter and has the potential to be a very good one.  He throws hard, has movement, and features several pitches.  I expect to see him break into the rotation next september as a trial, and be on the team full time by 2009, if not sooner.  

2002? I'm over it.

by wjackalope on Jun 6, 2006 4:29 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: LINCECUM!
I'm a little skeptical (2nd nature - been a Giant's fan for too many decades).  Him falling from a possible #1 to #10 probably doesn't mean anything.  but if he's successful in the bigs, he would likely break the mode.  Any successful small power pitchers in the majors with an unorthodox delivery that anybody can think of?

Also a high walk ratio can be a red flag. Certainly it's a deterrent to a fast track up to the big club.

Anyhow, I prefer to be skeptical rather than opitmistic.  Because if I'm wrong, as usual, then things are good-great for the Giants.  

by GiantJim on Jun 6, 2006 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
Fyi, you forgot the famous, non-baseball, Brad Daugherty principle - every white center drafted in the NBA must be compared to this guy, for lack of another dominant white center (lately).

by Aadik on Jun 6, 2006 4:30 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

ummm
Isn't Brad Daugherty black?

by hammystyle on Jun 6, 2006 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: ummm
Yes. Daugherty is black.

by jae on Jun 6, 2006 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: ummm
Maybe he meant Bill Laimbeer.  They do look alike.

BB

by BlackDougal on Jun 6, 2006 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lincecum and Burriss
Lincecum -
  1. I really hope they eventually try him at starter, but wouldn't mind the old Johan Santana treatment at all.
  2. 5' 10" 150 lbs + Weird Delivery + 98 mph + Best Curve in College + insane antics like walking around on his hands instead of his feet = Maybe my favorite Giant pitcher ever (if he can bring it).
  3. I can already see the story in SI during our 2009 World Series winning season about how Lincecum is the tiny insane guy with the cheese, Cain is the big, hefty, stoic guy and Lowry is the charismatic competitive lady's man. They're totally different but they get along because they all love to pitch!
Burriss - Hopefully they can keep him or one of the other guys at SS. Seemed like a fast, hard-working kid who loves baseball and likes to work at it. It's fun to think about him and Sanders being two top of the order OBP speedsters.

Only other guy who really caught my eye was Rohinger, the SS from Oklahoma. He seemed like he could rake.

by hammystyle on Jun 6, 2006 4:33 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum and Burriss
You can see the story in SI?

I can already see the sitcom based on their life!    It'll be called Three Aces and they'll  have wacky adventures together.

by groug on Jun 6, 2006 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum and Burriss
Only if they ride a triple-tandem bike around town.

The one in the back, per Wiki, is known as the Rear Admiral. I did not know that.

by Grant on Jun 6, 2006 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm...
Lincecum is the regular kind of guy,a funny man.  Cain is a bigger person, kind of a dummy.  And Lowry is good with the women...enters Lincecum's appartment like.....

::gasp::

Dancing Guy #4 turns me on.

by WalrusMan on Jun 6, 2006 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum and Burriss
Cain
Lowry
Lincecum
Sanchez
Perreira

One can dream.

by mxmob33 on Jun 6, 2006 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can we throw....
Liriano into that rotation and Nathan into the bullpen in this dream?
Dancing Guy #4 turns me on.

by WalrusMan on Jun 6, 2006 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Can we throw....
why not include boof into the pen while your at it and maybe sprinkle on some foppert  who throws 99 on top of that
bring back alex sanchez to contaminate jose vizcaino's piss test.

by fanofvanlandingham on Jun 6, 2006 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Can we throw....
im new to the board so i thought i might just calirfy by "foppert who throws 99" i didnt mean the foppert we trade for winn, but the foppert we used to read and hear about who threw 99 mph before he came up to the show topping out at 92
bring back alex sanchez to contaminate jose vizcaino's piss test.

by fanofvanlandingham on Jun 6, 2006 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Lincecum and Burriss
I think Lincecum ahead of Lowry.
like this:
Cain

Lincecum

Lowry

Sanchez

Pereira

by kingaro on Jun 8, 2006 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
i was actually a little dissapointed with the bejamin snyder pick. not very impressed by his video or his breakdown. seems like a kirk reuter type.
bring back alex sanchez to contaminate jose vizcaino's piss test.

by fanofvanlandingham on Jun 6, 2006 4:43 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

In fairness
He was like a 5th rounder, so if he has a Kirk Reuter career, that wouldn't be too bad. I'm expecting more like Jimmy Key though.

by hammystyle on Jun 6, 2006 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: In fairness
good point. id go for noah lowry, dont get me wrong, but it seems as if maybe a hitter would have been better here. there were some bats left on the board i believe....
bring back alex sanchez to contaminate jose vizcaino's piss test.

by fanofvanlandingham on Jun 6, 2006 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Michael McBryde
As a sophomore he hit .370, stole 35 bases, and had a 49/12 K/BB ratio in 37 2/3 innings. He was hurt this past season, but if he's healthy, he's an intriguing talent.
"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Jun 6, 2006 5:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Michael McBryde
So it is just gravy that his name sounds like a daytime soap opera star?

by BleacherEd on Jun 6, 2006 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
My initial reaction to the #1 pick is to observe that one anagram for "Timothy Lincecum" is "Clench my mitt, oui!"
"Look at that: I didn't even know I had a dime in the shoe." - F.Alou

by EliminateMe on Jun 6, 2006 5:32 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
Intriguing possibilities: Pill, Paul, Osguera
I don't understand the pick: Stolp

Pill took a big step forward the past year, although he still fans too much for my liking. Can he keep improving? Paul and Osguera are both lefty pitchers one year removed from serious injuries, who put up great K/9 and K/BB lines the past year. Good bullpen material.

by Salemicus on Jun 6, 2006 5:48 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
I believe the Harball Times line was that picking a college 1B who mashes has had the highest rate of return since 1984. Something like 1/3 of college 1Bs taken in the first round have had a HOF-caliber career.

by David Arnott on Jun 6, 2006 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
My initial reaction....

When does the blog get renamed "Waiting for Gib"?

by BruteSentiment on Jun 6, 2006 5:54 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Or...
"Waiting for Lincecum to Come?"
Dancing Guy #4 turns me on.

by WalrusMan on Jun 6, 2006 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Or...
Whoa... Danielle Steele on line 3 for WalrusMan...

by David Arnott on Jun 6, 2006 7:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
Dammit, is it pronounced LIN-ceh-cum, Lin-SAY-cum, Lin-ceh-KHUME....what? I'm dying to find out.
Me gustan tomar mis copas / Aguardiente es lo mejor / También la tequila blanca / Con su sal le da sabor

by leftymalo on Jun 7, 2006 12:30 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
I heard LIN-seh-cum, but then again I heard at least 10.4 different pronunciations for Hochevar.  

I heard he (Lincecum) maintained 98 until the later innings, and recently pitched something ridiculous like 20 innings in 5 days, involving 2 complete games, and a relief effort in between.  They were also saying he was doing crazy things like pushups and weight training directly after his starts.  

He sounds a bit like Mitch Williams on crack.  

Lets hope his arm doesn't blow itself out, as he seems not to have any control of his body or mind.  Then again theres no better way of scaring the crap out of hitters by putting a wild high 90's thrower on the mound, especially with a funky delivery.  At the very least we could use him as an asassin.  

by DaveK on Jun 7, 2006 2:22 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
that pronunciation is correct.
2002? I'm over it.

by wjackalope on Jun 7, 2006 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
that pronunciation is correct.
2002? I'm over it.

by wjackalope on Jun 7, 2006 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
You mean Mitch Williams wasn't on crack?
Me gustan tomar mis copas / Aguardiente es lo mejor / También la tequila blanca / Con su sal le da sabor

by leftymalo on Jun 7, 2006 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
This just in.... we traded Lincecum for AJ Perzinsky. Apparently he is a 300 hitter. Sounds good.

by covenant on Jun 7, 2006 10:48 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Initial reactions
Don't even joke about that.

by groug on Jun 7, 2006 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

more on tanner
his lefty has been rapidly rising up draft lists this fall.  He went from an 84-86 mph lefty with a nice breaking ball to an 86-91 mph lefty with a well above average and hard slurve (77-81 mph with + spin).  Good body with a very projectable arm stroke.  Still likely to end up in school because there just isn't a lot of history for the scouts to hang their hat on, but don't be surprised if he is a 4th round pick.
The Dodgers are evil.

by irwin on Jun 7, 2006 3:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm kinda excited about
Ryan Rohlinger, the 3b/SS from OU. He looks like a pretty good hitter with some pop in his bat.
Satan wears a Dodger cap.

by nostocksjustbonds on Jun 7, 2006 3:27 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

from ba
Tanner is a sleeper who has earned comparisons to Noah Lowry, and like Lowry he has committed to Pepperdine. He might not end up on campus, however, because he threw his fastball at 91 mph this spring from an easy delivery. He also shows a good knack for pitching.

--- Sounds good

4     116     SF     Ben Snyder     lhp     Ball State     IN    
Snyder's older brother Brad is an Indians outfield prospect who went 18th overall in the 2003 draft. Ben won't go that high, but he should go in the first five rounds because he's a classic pitchability lefthander with a strong competitive makeup. His forte is throwing four pitches for strikes. His fastball usually ranges from 85-88 mph and occasionally touches 90, but he can put it where he wants. Even when it sits at 84-86 mph, he gets by with his ability to sink, cut and command it. His curveball is average, and he enhances it by adding and subtracting velocity from it. His changeup is a good weapon, though at 81-82 mph it could use more separation from his fastball. If his changeup doesn't have its normal sink, it gets hit. He also throws a cut fastball that he calls a slider. The top prospect in the Great Lakes League last summer, Snyder has additional bargaining power. He's a draft-eligible sophomore after redshirting in 2004.

--- Sounds like Misch

5     146     SF     Michael McBryde     of     Florida Atlantic     FL    
-- I kinda like this pick, if they think he can come back from the injury

6     176     SF     Ryan Rohlinger     ss     Oklahoma     OK    
Rohlinger has been one of the steadiest and most versatile players in the Big 12 for three seasons. He started at second base, shortstop and left field for the Sooners before settling in at third base. He has good bat control and some power, but his bat would fit better at second or short than it would at third in pro ball. A 21st-round selection by the Cardinals in 2005, he'll go much higher as a senior sign this year.

 -- As a general rule, I don't like seniors

7     206     SF     Brett Pill     1b     Cal State Fullerton     CA    
Scouts haven't warmed to Brett Pill (a Yankees 45th-rounder last year) as had been expected because the tall first baseman has pressed to hit for power and wound up hitting just five homers after slugging nine a year ago. Pill is patient, has plenty of leverage in his swing and is an above-average defender at first base.

-- Not a fan.

10     296     SF     Ryan Paul     lhp     Cal State Fullerton     CA    

Fullerton's sleeper could be 6-foot-6, 225-pound lefthander Ryan Paul, who came to the Titans out of Pierce Junior College in Los Angeles. Paul has been drafted three times. The Braves took him in the 42nd round in 2002 out of Moorpark High in suburban Los Angeles, and after missing 2003 he was picked again out of Pierce in 2004 (47th round, Mets) and 2005 (28th round, Tigers). He hasn't had a stint longer than two innings all season as the main set-up man to Pestano, but he has shown command of a high-80s fastball and sweepy slider from a low three-quarters slot, and he could improve his stock after taking over the closer role in Pestano's absence.

-- I kinda like this pick - I wonder if he will start or relieve

13     386     SF     Brad Boyer     2b     Arizona     AZ    
Infielder Brad Boyer's best attributes are his speed and versatility, as he's played the outfield, second and third base in college. His best bet is to be a utility player.

The Dodgers are evil.

by irwin on Jun 7, 2006 3:58 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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