In Defense of Pedro
This is long and the arguments have holes, but this one is for all the non-Pedro haters out there.
When a baseball player loses the respect of many vocal hometown fans you know there's been a long period of disgust (or one dropped easy pop-up during a playoff series we were going to lose anyway). Pedro is certainly no exception to this rule; his numbers to start the season are fu-ugly. Pedro was touted as the organization's savior for a long time, but he's never developed into the hitter people thought he was supposed to be. Is that Pedro's fault? Management's? Or are the scouts to blame?
At this point in the season I'd much rather have Jamey Wright and probably even Jeff Fassaro hitting with a runner on first than Pedro, but with time, his luck and skills should improve and he will become the Pedro of the last couple of years. And that Pedro is good. What stands out in our are the rally killing strikeouts and double plays. But how about this stat that is most likely completely skewed and has the sample size g-ds trembling before us? Pedro hit .284 in 67 at-bats during the "late innings of close games" from 2004-2005. He was third in the National League with a .597 Slugging Percentage and led the league in RBIs, Runs Scored, Doubles, Homeruns and Extra Base Hits. He did this all with 20-30 fewer at-bats than most of the other players. This may be an obscure category, but his performance in the late innings of those games at least gave the Giants a chance to win 49 times during the last two years. And in the end that's what should matter. If Pedro bats with runners on base at any other time, however, he does seem to either ground into a double play or strike out, but what's more important? Ending a potential rally in the third inning or starting a potential game winning rally in the 8th?
Of course I also hold out hope that we'd be able to trade Pedro and Fassero for David Wright and cash consideration, but it's just not going to happen. Let's look back to the post-Matty third-basemen for the Giants - it's not pretty: Steve Scarsone, Mike Benjamin, Mark Lewis, Charlie Hayes, Bill Mueller, Russ Davis, Ramon Martinez, David Bell, Edgardo Alfonzo and Pedro Feliz.
The only player who came close to Pedro numbers during his tenure with the Giants was Mueller, yet the biggest criticism of Pedro is that he's a weak hitter playing a power hitter's position. Mueller may have a better eye than Pedro and won't GIDP as much, but Mueller has no power at all. At least with Pedro the 15-20 homeruns will come. If asked to choose I'd probably go with Bill, but it's not my choice and the organization wanted to give Pedro a chance.
Pedro is who Pedro is. He's not going to stop swinging at pitches two feet outside and he's not going to suddenly lose his ability to hit balls out of the park. His defense has improved dramatically and maybe as he matures it's possible he'll learn to be more patient (although I doubt it). It is the Giants organization that has decided for the past 10 years that we do not need power coming from third-base. I am sorry that Pedro did not become the type of player people presumed he'd be, but Pedro has been good for us and he's probably even won a few games for us.
Do I cringe whenever Pedro comes to the plate? Certainly, but no more than I used to cringe when Marvin Bernard would lead-off a game or last season when Todd Linden would pop up to deep short, or when Jose Uribe would hit a soft come-backer to the pitcher.
Pedro Feliz is that one watery eye during the flu. The flu is management's decision not to replace Jeff Kent's bat. I may be annoyed with my watery eye, but my anger isn't directed at the symptoms, my anger (or more accurately, my disappointment) is directed at the flu. Pedro's numbers will come around at some point and by season's end he'll be an average 6th place hitter or an above average 7th place hitter with a great glove. I'm happy to live with that as long as Russ Davis stays far, far away from our clubhouse.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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37 comments
Comments
Re: In Defense of Pedro
Personally I'd rather have the lead going into the late innings rather than having to crawl back into the game. So for my money I'd like el hacko to be productive early. I would imagine the starters would too. Seems like pitching with a lead is a bit easier than trailing..
by rock n jock on May 2, 2006 12:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: In Defense of Pedro
by Sayhey on May 2, 2006 2:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
lol...
by kenshin1 on May 2, 2006 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: lol...
Will Pedro ever be anything other than a free-swinging average player that he is? I doubt it. I'm all for having someone better. But the need to trash him by some posters says more about them than it does about Pedro.
by Sayhey on May 2, 2006 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
my problem...
by kenshin1 on May 2, 2006 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: my problem...
by Sayhey on May 2, 2006 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: In Defense of Pedro
by Aadik on May 2, 2006 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: In Defense of Pedro
by Sayhey on May 2, 2006 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This isn't a stathead thing
Yes, I do realize that he does bring some talent to the table. His defense has been excellent, and he can crush a mistake pitch. But my frustrations with him start and end with me having to watch him hit.
by The Balls of Summer on May 3, 2006 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: In Defense of Pedro
by Zackd on May 2, 2006 2:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: In Defense of Pedro
by BondsApologist on May 2, 2006 2:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: In Defense of Pedro
by Josh from Hollywood on May 2, 2006 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: In Defense of Pedro
by Aadik on May 2, 2006 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: In Defense of Pedro
by Josh from The New Giant Thrill on May 2, 2006 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could not disagree more...
by kenshin1 on May 2, 2006 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: In Defense of Pedro
Then there are guys like Mueller and Pedro. I was curious how their run production compared to each other. I am by no means a stathead, but I found this interesting. Pedro, in 1680 ABs, has scored 210 runs and driven in 248. Mueller, in 4116 ABs, has scored 651 runs and driven in 478.
What does this equate to? Pedro scores once every 8.00 ABs and drives in a run every 6.77 ABs; Mueller scores every 6.32 ABs and drives in a run every 8.61 ABs. In other words, there's a trade-off here. We need guys like Mueller hitting first and second, and guys like Pedro hitting later in the line-up where they can pick up some RBIs and not cause too much other harm.
by Josh from The New Giant Thrill on May 2, 2006 3:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Feliz...
by kenshin1 on May 2, 2006 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Feliz...
by Josh from The New Giant Thrill on May 2, 2006 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Feliz...
BECAUSE RBIS ARE MEANINGLESS
by zenbitz on May 2, 2006 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Feliz...
by Sayhey on May 2, 2006 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Feliz...
I don't buy the incapable of making an adjustment argument on Feliz behalf. His stupid swinging out of his ass at ridiculous looking pitches in the vain hope that the pitcher will make a mistake with location, regardless of pitch count or game situation is not some insurmountable chronic physical ailment. It is stubborness combined with overaggressiveness--nice trait for a gang-banger in a territory squabble, but not for a MLB player. Those are baseball fundamentals taught at the lowest levels on up.
But he gets paid to hit bangers and rbis, so he swings as such.
by E Ticket on May 2, 2006 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Feliz...
I think perspective on what stats mean, any stat - RBIs included, is a good thing. RBIs mean what they mean in the rule book. When a batter drives in another runner or himself he gets credit for it in the form of an RBI (with some exceptions.) Is that meaningless? No, but it must be put into perspective. For instance, the ability of teammates to get on base obviously effects the number of RBIs. As well, the number of chances a batter has to drive in other runners effects any evaluation of a batter's effectiveness in RBI production. I'm not stating anything new to most folk here, but what I am saying that seems to be forgotten by some is that RBIs do reflect a gross figure of accomplishment of driving in runners. That is not "meaningless." Rather, it is one part of the picture.
It is not meaningless to drive in 80 runs in two consecutive years. It doesn't mean that that Pedro is the best "clutch" hitter on the Giants, but it does mean that he was able to play enough for him to accomplish that feat - including one year on a team that was dead last in OBP. Could other players have done better given the same opportunities? Most likely many could have, but the fact remains none did over the last two years. So, when we evaluate Feliz, let's take that into consideration.
by Sayhey on May 2, 2006 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Feliz...
I will clarify:
When I say RBIs are meaningless, I don't mean that they don't mean ANYTHING - clearly they are a record of something happening.
HOWEVER, what they are not is useful in evaluating baseball players in any way, shape, or form without further data (RBI-opportunities).
individual RBIs are actaully MISLEADING. If you hit a sac fly with no out and the bases loaded, you hurt your team (unless you are the pitcher, or hit like one).
by zenbitz on May 3, 2006 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Feliz...
In Pedro's case, the use of rbis help to show a fuller picture of his strengths as a players. To stop with them would be a mistake, but then I'm not the one making categorical statements about their use being meaningless. What a "gross" stat like rbis does show is the fact that certain things are done over a given period of time. They show, in the case of season stats or career stats, that a player was able to play long enough to accomplish the feat in question. Not something to be dismissed with a wave of a dogmatic hand.
As to your last statement - it all depends on the game situation doesn't it? No one could think that a sac fly with no outs and the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth that drives in the winning run would hurt your team. I know it is part of some stathead dogma to state simplistically that making outs hurt your team and getting on base helps, but real life tells us it isn't always so.
by Sayhey on May 3, 2006 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Feliz...
What fraction of RBIs fall into the above category?
Find me one comparision of two players A and B in which the only way you can tell B is better than A is that he has more RBIs.
by zenbitz on May 3, 2006 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Feliz...
With sacrifice flies or bunts, I stand by my statement. It is all about game situation. At times they are extremely helpful to a team, at others they are not. The same can be said of the walk. In general it helps a team, but when a 8th place hitter takes a walk with RISP and two outs it's most often a mistake. One could also add the need to look at game situations in terms of not just the innings and score, but also the type of team one has. Small ball was VERY effective as played by the Cards in the '80s and the Dodgers in the '60s.
by Sayhey on May 3, 2006 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Feliz...
by zenbitz on May 3, 2006 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Feliz...
by Sayhey on May 3, 2006 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Feliz...
by zenbitz on May 3, 2006 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Feliz...
by Sayhey on May 3, 2006 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Feliz...
by Sayhey on May 2, 2006 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: In Defense of Pedro
by zenbitz on May 2, 2006 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: In Defense of Pedro
Not everyone has a great hitting 3B or even an average hitting 3B. People seem to think that a $90M payroll entitles them to power-hitting corner infielders and outfielders. But Bonds, Schmidt, Finley, Durham, Alou, and Winn take up more than half the payroll. That don't leave much for power hitting corner infielders as well as all the other players on the team. And while Pedro has a much below average OBP (though he is only about 20 points away from the league average), he is however average to above average in SLG, and there are not that many 3B who hit more homers than he did the past two seasons.
Every team except for the Yankees have to accept position players who do not hit well relative to similar position players. So while our corner IF are average to below, their corner OF are average to below. Or they have Neifi starting at 2B while we have Durham.
Between the two, I want a high SLG from my 6-7 hitters than a high OBP. You don't drive in runs with a walk or even a single when the 8th place hitter and pitcher are coming up. That's why when Bill James constructed his runs created formula there were initially two key components: OBP and SLG, with SLG the component related to driving in the runs. That's what we want our 6-7 hitters doing, not starting a rally with the 9th spot's black hole automatic out coming up.
It's easy to dump on players when they get off to a slow start. That happens all the time in fantasy leagues (and I'm guilty of it too, forgive me Edwin Encarnacion!), the fan gets upset over the player not doing well and just dumps him. It's the knee-jerk reaction, no one can accept failure of any type when your team is struggling to stay around .500. If only we had David Wright/Miguel Cabrera/Scott Rolen! Then we would win all those games!
Feliz has actually been hitting like normal for him at home overall, it was just the "perfect storm" situation for Feliz that the road games we have played have been at parks he historically have done poorly at. His numbers should not be Mendoza Line bad as the season goes on, it will be his normal Feliz-tastic numbers: mediocre with plus power, as he gets to visit the parks he normally hit well in as well as get into baseball shape, since the WBC and the rainouts probably interfered with his preparations for this season. His recent success hitting appears to signal that he's finally getting into proper shape (for him) for playing his best baseball.
If someone can get me a better 3B (Mueller is not better, just different) who hits 30 homers with a .300+ average at the same salary as Feliz, sign me up, but for his salary and abilities, we could do a lot worse, like Corey Koskie, Jeff Cirillo, Eric Hinske, and Vinnie Castillo. I would even throw Aurilia in with that group, he makes a lot less but his hitting the past two years is all Great American Park's doing, his road numbers stink.
I don't want to defend Feliz, he is what he is, a nice complementary part who, if he can hit like he did in 2003-2004, would be a pleasant surprise (and advantage) in the 6-7 slot, and if he did what he did in 2005, would be average among 7th place hitters in the majors for OPS. As I noted elsewhere, the teams who went to the playoffs in 2005 actually all had below NL average 7th place hitters, so clearly having a good 7th place hitter is the whip cream on the sundae, complementary to the good top half of the lineup, but not a required ingredient to a winning team.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 2, 2006 4:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: In Defense of Pedro
OK, so you spend good money on good players, and close to nothing on below average ones. But Feliz is cheap, he's ~$4M/year. The roster is FULL of guys like this, and has been the entire Bonds era. Alou+3M/year = Vlad.
* And while Pedro has a much below average OBP (though he is only about 20 points away from the league average), he is however average to above average in SLG, and there are not that many 3B who hit more homers than he did the past two seasons. *
It is not arguable that Feliz, for his career is a below average hitting compared to his peers (NL 3B) And that's not counting all the times he's played LF/1B (higher quality of peers). I actually think Feliz makes an excellent super-sub. He can play 1B/3B/LF even RF/SS! And he has pop! But he's over his head as a starter (except maybe at SS.. but I don't think his D is adequate).
*Every team except for the Yankees have to accept position players who do not hit well relative to similar position players. So while our corner IF are average to below, their corner OF are average to below. Or they have Neifi starting at 2B while we have Durham.
Well and good. Just pay the sucky players what they are worth: ML minimum, or close to it.
Feliz is a cut above waiver wire fodder. He's overmatched as a starter, and overpaid for a back up. And he's mired in a month-long slump.
Why are we forced to pay Feliz $3.5M to play 3B like a typical AAAA guy? Because our farm system sucks for position players.
And no, there is no good option for the Giants right now. Just because Feliz is the best option doesn't make him any good. (See Tim Worrell, closer)
by zenbitz on May 3, 2006 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: In Defense of Pedro
But that's the past. This last offseason was not about getting Vlad over Alou, it was about what alternatives we had at 3B. He was it for the most part, particularly with the Alfonzo white elephant hanging over our head, if you'd rather have Alfonzo starting at 3B...
By what basis are you judging he is over his head as a starter? I've heard this so many times that I went onto ESPN and pulled up all the 3B who played last couple of seasons to see if this is true or just an urban myth. I found that Felix fits in with that, it is not a huge disadvantage with him at 3B, it is either an urban myth or maybe wishful thinking driving people to say he is inadequate offensively at 3B, he is just not Rolen, Chavez, or any of the truly good 3B in the league but in reality most 3B aren't that good.
That fits in historically with the lack of 3B in the Hall of Fame. As much as people like to talk about offensive 3B, there were so few of them that really stood out that 3B is underrepresented relative to other positions, according to an article I read somewhere (Hardball Times? Dan Agonistes? Futility Infielder? Baseball Musing?)
I agree that he probably would do better as a super-sub for us, but that's not really a choice for us this past off-season.
Tim Worrell did fine for us as a closer, he only did poorly the two games he imploded when Benitez came back. I think he will be fine the rest of the season, he's been pitching well the past 6-7-8 seasons except for the first couple of months last season when he had severe personal problems, he had a low 2 ERA after coming back last season.
Please look at the 3B who have been playing the past couple of seasons (2004 and 2005) and compare what they did with what Feliz did as a supersub and assume Feliz would have hit as well as he did if he were the starting 3B the past couple of years. He is not the best but neither is he this so bad a stinker that skunks avoid him. He is what he is and that's not as bad as so many people are making him out to be.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 4, 2006 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: In Defense of Pedro
Thats the beginning, middle and end -- short version-- of why the Giants have bitten, since Kent's departure. That and the non-reoccurrence of Aurilia's career year by another Giant Hitter. This has been a team of one and one/half offensive impact players since. Bonds/Alou
The real problem this year is a very ordinary pitching staff.
As much as I despise Feliz' offensive play, he is not the cause of the Giants ordinariness. He is merely a sympton of Management Disease. Chronic Unwillingness to do anything other than the minimum required to fill up Peter Magowan's four-story phone booth on a daily basis.
by E Ticket on May 2, 2006 8:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Have to disagree
No. That was in Game 3. If Timmy closes out that game, we're up 2 games to 1, so we're guaranteed to go back to Pac Bell for game 5 with Schmidt on the hill.
That dropped fly ball cost us the series.
by The Balls of Summer on May 3, 2006 9:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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