No longer waiting for Boof
He's here:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2006/05/17/sports/s134451D08.DTL
Let's see how much worse that Pierzynski trade can become.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Re: No longer waiting for Boof
Ouchy. I'll be rooting for Boof
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
Brian, two words: Farm System.
by GiantJim on May 17, 2006 9:32 PM PDT reply actions
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
Brian has been working the farm system, it just takes up to 6 years to see any results and even then, it can take even longer to find a good or great player via the draft when you draft as high as the Giants have during the Sabean era.
It's easy to blame Sabean for a poor farm system but my research suggests that it's a fools errand to try to build a farm system when you are saddled with lousy picks when you are as successful as the Giants have been. It is not that easy to find a good player in the 20-30 pick range in the first round of the draft, we're talking about 10 to 1 odds against finding such a player even that high in the draft.
And building via a farm system takes a long term plan and patience because of the long time it usually takes players to mature and develop into useful players. Given the 5-6 years it normally takes a player to become a good player at the MLB level, and the bad odds of finding such a player, to properly evaluate a GM, you basically need to allow him at least 10-12 years to run his system and see how things work out.
So far, it has worked out OK, he has two starters and over half the bullpen made up of people he drafted. The next 3 seasons will be crucial in evaluating Sabean, as the prospects that we all can name develop and hopefully advance to the big show: EME, Schierholtz, Ishikawa, Sanders, Lewis, Sandoval, etc.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 18, 2006 3:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
I've been thinking a lot lately that one of Sabes greatest moves (the Jeff Kent trade) wasn't successful in the way he intended it to be, but was successful almost despite him. The philosophy of that trade (like Sabean's philosophy in general) was to get several useful parts out of one great player. That it didn't really do: Roa was gone in 60 seconds, Vizcaino was, well Vizcaino (and it's impossible to belief Aurilia wouldn't have been just as productive in 97), Tavares did give us a lot of innings of some value. But in reality, that trade was a success because we managed to trade a superstar on the decline for a superstar on the come. Exactly the opposite of what they were trying to accomplish. I wonder if Brian's ever thought about it that way -- one superstar is BETTER than many mediocre pieces.
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
And if you are going to blame him for the bad years before he became GM, then you should give him credit for putting together large parts of the Yankees core World Series team. While he has director of scouting for the Yankees, they drafted these players: Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, Ramiro Mendoza, and Andy Pettitte. Other players drafted while he was their scouting director include Scott Kamienieki, Hal Morris, Turner Ward, Kevin Maas, Gerald Williams, Brad Ausmus, Pat Kelly, Russ Davis, Deion Sanders, Fernando Vina, Andy Fox, J.T. Snow, Russ Springer, Sterling Hitchcock, Brian Johnson, Carl Everett, Ricky Ledee, Shane Spencer, John Wasdin, and Mike DeJean. They got the Yankees other useful parts by being trade bait.
About the Kent trade, the philosophy that I read that that move entailed was not of getting useful parts but of how no team can succeed with two players sucking up so much of the payroll. Magowan has stated this over and over again in interviews. So the move was as much a salary dump as it was getting useful parts.
In addition, it was clear to me at the time of the trade (or soon thereafter, I was raging at the trade like most Giants fans at first) that Kent was a good player just waiting for his opportunity to play full time. Pro-rating his stats, one could see that he had huge HR potential and be a legitimate power source, though obviously not as big as Matty was, but at that time no one was sure if he could play a full season anymore so it all could have evened out. And if I could see that using what little stats that were available back then for analysis, I would assume Sabean's staff would have caught that too.
Vizcaino and Roa I viewed as throw-in on the trade, Viz because of his salary and because the Indians weren't going to use him so he would have been deadweight and Roa just to get another prospect. So Aurilia might have played just as well, but if you have a salaried vet on your roster, you are going to play him. But I agree that Aurilia should have been starting a long time before he did, it was clear to most casual fans.
The two centerpieces for the trade was Kent and Tavarez. I think what Sabean was doing was getting a developing power hitter to replace Williams, particularly one who teams did not want because of his "bad" attitude, which lasts to this day, and getting a power pitcher who potentially could have been a good starter, but who ended up merely as a very good setup man.
He took a risk, and that's something any manager needs to be able to do, take calculated risks, because the status quo would have been death. No one, including Sabean, knew that Kent would develop into what he did, but anyone could have seen that he should have been a power hitting 2B at the time of the trade, which is not far off from what he became. He was, after all, trading Matt Williams, legit 40 HR power, so he should have gotten some good value for him.
That the trade did not "end up" the way he intended should never be the point of focus for the analysis of any managerial decision. By that measure, no manager would ever look well in that light and get fired, nothing ever turns out exactly as intended. All managers have to make calculated risks in all they do, things never turn out the way you intended, so what you hope for is that for all the ones that don't turn out the way you wanted, there are others which turn out better than what you wanted, resulting in an overall improvement in your organization.
That's what happened in this case: it was suppose to net a good starting pitcher, eventually, and a good power hitting starting 2B, which was still rare, but it ended up with a good reliever but a superstar 2B.
About your last point, if Sabean thought that about superstars, he would have signed Vlad instead of the long list of useful players that he signed instead that off-season. Don't get me going on that, we could have had Vlad for 3 years now and ... No, it is clear that the Giants still believe in not having two players take up more than 30% of the payroll and until Bonds is off the payroll or takes a big cut, he won't get a young superstar buddy to play alongside with.
I agree, in general, that a superstar player is better than a bunch of mediocrities and hoped that the Giants would at least bend the rules for, say, the final year or two of Bonds' contract, in order to juice the lineup when Bonds was out of the lineup. But the best they could do was get another ageing hitter in Alou.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 18, 2006 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
I think you actually agreed with me alot in that post, although it sounded like you thought you didn't. However, I have to comment on this:
"That the trade did not "end up" the way he intended should never be the point of focus for the analysis of any managerial decision."
Intention/Payoff should ALWAYS be the point of focus for analysis of decisions -- that's how you improve your process in future decisions. It's great when moves succeed, but you always want to be on the lookout for moves that succeed "despite you" because they effectively mask a failed policy until it's too late. That's a pretty standard business philosophy.
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
by Josh from Hollywood on May 18, 2006 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
Speaking of grizzled vets, I'd be willing to nominate Jim Leyritz Game 3 homer as one of the 4 or 5 most important in baseball history. Remember going into that game all the talk was 1) Will the Braves sweep? and 2) are they the greatest team ever? With one late inning swing of the bat Leyritz turned an Atlanta coronation into the the beginning of a Yankees dynasty. Given that it was the key moment in the first Yankees series win in nearly 20 years, I've always been a little surprised at how quickly it fell off the map.
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
What I was trying to spit out was basically that things never turn exactly the way you planned it and evaluating solely on whether you met your plan or not (not, in this case, since Kent went so far beyond plan) should not be the focus of analysis.
And I do agree with your post, as well, I guess I didn't tone it correctly (a hazard of squeezing in posts during work).
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 19, 2006 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
So, I don't lavish too much praise on Sabean for the Kent trade. On the flip side of this, I don't hold Francisco Liriano against him too much. While that trade was brutal (Nathan had succeeded in the majors, unlike the rest of the pitching prospects he had successfully dumped, and Pierzynski was overrated, and eventually overpaid in arbitration), Liriano's pro career consisted of an unremarkable year in rookie ball, an unremarkable year in the Sally league, and a year of injury rehab. Given the dozens of pitching prospects he had dealt, he was bound to get burned eventually, but much like with Kent, there was no reason to expect Liriano to become a superstar.
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
In 1994/95, he hit a combined (roughly averaging) .283/.333/.468, he just had a down year in 1996, probably because he was switching leagues AND, given what we know now, he was probably very frustrated that he wasn't getting his chance to play full-time.
And the 29 HR he hit for us in 1997? 20AB per HR, which is not far from the 23.6AB/HR he posted in 1993 and 1995. Even if you take his small sample first season with Toronto, he had 24 AB/HR and batting line of .240/.324/.443 (though if you take full season it went down because he was traded to the Mets, but again he was crossing leagues).
So for his career up to the day he joined the Giants, these are Kent's stats: .274/.319/.450 with 27AB/HR, which are all approximately what he hit for us in his first season.
In addition, he was 29 his first year with us, so he was entering what would be most people's peak years when he started hitting the ball for more power and average, so a power boost over his established rate of 24AB/HR should have been expected.
What he did his first season should have been expected, though the 29 homers was a bit beyond, but not by much, maybe 1-2 homers.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 19, 2006 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
by GiantJim on May 18, 2006 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Fortunately, I'm also an Orioles fan
Re: Fortunately, I'm also an Orioles fan
by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on May 18, 2006 1:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Re: Fortunately, I'm also an Orioles fan
"He never kneed his trainer in the alleged balls."
Are you saying that Stan Conte is a woman?
Wait, ...how do you know this?
by Nick Schulte on May 21, 2006 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Re: Fortunately, I'm also an Orioles fan
by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on May 18, 2006 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
This trade saddens me to no end.
by Ruths Curse Steakhouse on May 19, 2006 5:48 PM PDT reply actions
Re: No longer waiting for Boof
by Ruths Curse Steakhouse on May 19, 2006 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions

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