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NL West

Let us not wallow in the valley of despair, I say to you today, my friends.

And so even though we face the difficulties of today and tomorrow, I still have a dream. It is a dream deeply rooted in the San Francisco baseball dream.

I have a dream that one day this team will rise up and finally win a championship: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that the Yankees are a bunch of grabby championship hogs."

I have a dream that one day on the fog-kissed hills of San Francisco, the sons of former Jamey Wright supporters and the sons of former Brad Hennessey supporters will be able to sit down together at the table of brotherhood.

I have a dream that one day even the East Bay, a region sweltering with a special kind of insanity that can only be created by following the Warriors, will be transformed into an oasis of Giants fandom.

I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the chemically-enhanced star they root for, but by how many cars they tip over when the chemically-enhanced star wins a championship for them.

I have a dream today!

I have a dream that one day, down in Southern California, with its vicious Dodger partisans, with its general manager having his moustache dripping with the words of "my friend, Tommy Lasorda" and "loaded farm system" -- one day right there in Southern California, little Dodger heathen boys and heathen girls will be made fun of for letting the Giants win the World Series.

I have a dream today!

Unfortunately, that dream would need to start with the Giants winning the division. And I can't predict that in good conscience.

NL West

Dodgers 88-74
Giants 85-77
Padres 81-81
Diamondbacks 76-86
Rockies 71-91

Both the Giants and Dodgers have injury concerns. Both teams have defensive concerns. Jeff Kent starts his steep decline.........now. Brett Tomko's art requires a level of pathos only continued losing can provide. J.D. Drew and Nomar Garciaparra will injure each other by hugging in that manly way, where you quickly pull the other guy close and kind of whomp on his back.  Yet, one can easily rebut each of these perceived faults with similar problems for the Giants.

Where some of the pessimism comes from: when choosing between a very old and brittle team, and a sorta old and brittle team, it makes sense to choose the latter. Where the rest of the pessimism comes from: I can't see Barry Bonds making it through the season intact. If Bonds plays 125 games, I see no reason why the Giants can't win 90 games, but that's not something to count on. Hope for, absolutely, but not count on.

I like the Giants rotation; I really do. Jason Schmidt has looked great this spring, and Noah Lowry is still underrated. I've made my positive outlook on Matt Morris, at least in the short-term, known. Matt Cain might not be Tom Seaver yet, but he should be better than Kirk Rueter. Jamey Wright's family loves him very, very much.

I like the Giants bullpen, too. If Armando Benitez can't find what he has lost, I'm confident a young arm will be able to take his place. The Fresno bullpen will provide some fine emergency help, as it did last season.

There's a bad feeling floating around, though, and I can't shake it. The fanboy in me wants to override it, and throw daisy petals around while predicting 95 wins. It could happen. In a just universe, it should happen. Maybe we can make it happen if we concentrate real hard like the freaks in Dark City. I just can't sugarcoat my doubts.

The good news is I'm often terribly wrong. I kind of pride myself on it.

Comment 43 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Display:

O.O
You should be banished!

But that was...wow....amazing.  How long have you been working on that?

Dave "Stinky" Flemming

by WalrusMan on Mar 31, 2006 1:34 PM PST reply actions  

Actually...
...it was a copy 'n' paste that took about ten minutes to edit Giants-style. It should have been funnier.

And to all y'all haters: Who here picked the Giants in spring of '97. Me, that's who. I have street cred you couldn't even begin to fathom when it comes to picking the Giants. So back the hell off. I will quit this damn site, and give it to, I don't know, Kenshin, or something.

I just can't predict to Bonds to be healthy. It's almost a superstition thing.

by Grant Brisbee on Apr 1, 2006 10:22 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: NL West
"I have a dream that one day, down in Southern California, with its vicious Dodger partisans, with its general manager having his moustache dripping with the words of "my friend, Tommy Lasorda" and "loaded farm system" -- one day right there in Southern California, little Dodger heathen boys and heathen girls will be made fun of for letting the Giants win the World Series."

And it is a good dream, and one to be rewarded. But like you, I can't see this team winning 80 - let alone 95. When old teams collapse, they do so brutually - and I worry that this year has "Arizona ThirteenAndAHalfBacks 2004" written all over it.

by Aadik on Mar 31, 2006 1:45 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
Alex Baldwin from Glenngary Glenn Ross:

"Do you know what it takes to pick the Dodgers to win the division on McCovey Chronicles? It takes BRASS BALLS to pick the Dodgers to win the division on McCovey Chronicles."

by paleepalou on Mar 31, 2006 1:49 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
Damn it I blew the whole thing.

Alec Baldwin

by paleepalou on Mar 31, 2006 1:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: NL West
ABC

A, Always
B, Beat
C, Colorado

by Kitspool on Mar 31, 2006 2:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: NL West

seven million dollar coffee is for CLOSERS ONLY.

by zenbitz on Mar 31, 2006 2:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: NL West
and they should fire Nomar's f*%#in ass because a loser is a loser...
"Why you gotta be cardin' my hos?" - Charlie Hayes

by stevieg on Mar 31, 2006 3:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: NL West
I'm afraid I must also pick the Dodgers in a close race over the Giants, although I think they will both win a few more games than Grant predicted (around 90). Picking the Dreaded Blue Horde makes me feel all dirty inside, and also reminds me of this great quote from Marlon Brando as Fletcher Christian in 'MUTINY ON THE BOUNTY':

"I believe I did what honor dictated, and that belief sustains me... Except for a slight desire to be dead, which I'm sure will pass."

"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f***ing amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK

by Josh from Hollywood on Mar 31, 2006 2:07 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
To me, there are two outcomes that would be beneficial for the Giants, Now/Future, and Grant's prediction is a worst case scenario. The best case is obvious, beat down the division and embarass the Dodgers and win the division(Now). The alternative would be to fold at a speed that cannot be measured on any scale created by humans(Future). Trade Schmidt or any other missing piece we may own to a playoff contender at an inflated price and enter 2007 with enough cash to sign a high first round pick because the '07 free agent pool is not pretty. We're going to need some cash to resign Feliz, too.

OT: What is the MCC opinion of Carlos Lee? Melvin Mora?

I don't beleive in editing.

by MeSoKrabby on Mar 31, 2006 2:09 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
It all depends on Barry Bonds. But I guarantee the Giants will win either ten more games or ten fewer games than Grant predicted.
"Baseball is life, the rest is just details."

by nick @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 31, 2006 2:13 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
95 or 75....Oh so good but oh so bad.
Dave "Stinky" Flemming

by WalrusMan on Mar 31, 2006 2:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Screw that....
Sure the Giants have some huge question marks, and the excrement might hit the air conditioning at any time. But I think if everything goes right for them they are the best in the division. Even if things go 75% right for us and 100% right for the Dodgers I give us the edge.

Derek Lowe and Grady Little together again just seems like a Giants Division title to me.

Giants win by 4 games.

by hammystyle on Mar 31, 2006 2:45 PM PST reply actions  

Sugar is cheap
Margin of error, Grant, margin of error. To me, if I don't think the Giants are going to lose by ten games, I think they're going to win it.

Giants 85-79
Dodgers 85-79
D-backs 79-85
Padres 78-84
Rockies 73-89

I've given the matter a lot of objective consideration, and I truly believe that the Giants will win the one-game tiebreaker.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Mar 31, 2006 2:48 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
Shame, shame, shame on you all who pick the dreaded D team to win the division.  That jumbled collection of cast offs and has-beens put together by a former Giants Asst. G.M. will break down by mid-season.  Which, will be very different from our team of cast offs and "once was" players with their star attraction fussing with opposing fans, intrepid reporters and ex-girlfriends and an ex-wife.  He will obviously play more than 120 games just to keep away from all his off-field problems.

by APGiantsFan on Mar 31, 2006 3:07 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
Sooo, this is the official McCovey Chronicles approved thread of NL West prognostication? Then here is my official prediction of victory.

"My predictions.

Giants 105-57 (Barry hits 49 homers)
Dodgers 88- 74
Padres 82-80
D'backs 75-87
Rockies 40-122 (this is one awful team)

Giants sweep Cardinals and Mets to win NL Championship

Giants win in seven against the Yankees on a dramatic 9th inning home run by Bonds off Rivera. He retires. Rivera not Bonds.

But, then I ALWAYS predict the Giants are going to win it all."

Yes, it is cut and paste from the other thread, but if Grant can rip off MLK, Jr., I can rip off myself. No points for originality, but lots for continued belief in the glorious future of the franchise. Unlike, some who won't be mentioned ... again ... Grant.

Honestly, I just don't see the Giants breaking down like they did last year. If they stay reasonably healthy, they compete and I like their chances. Very likely a good old Giants-Dodgers race down to the wire, but one the good guys win this time.

My nightmare is some rabid baseball fan, egged on by the self-righteous sports media, tries to pull a "Tonya Harding" on Barry in order to "save baseball" and the season is in the toilet.

by Sayhey on Mar 31, 2006 3:11 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
Dbacks 84 wins
Dodgers 80 wins
Padres 72 wins
Rockies 65 wins

Giants 88 wins.

Saving countless runs with my defense

by lyricalkiller on Mar 31, 2006 3:11 PM PST reply actions  

Boo! Hiss!
You cannot start with the "I have a dream" speech and then predict the Dodgers to win the division!  I hate this post!  Take it back!  

My prediction:

Giants 105-57 (stolen from Sayhey)
D'backs 84-78
Padres 78-84
Rockies 72-90
Dodgers 70-92

by BleacherEd on Mar 31, 2006 3:19 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
So to those who predict a Giants division win, what do you see them doing in the play-offs?

For the record, I think they'll be awful this season. Like last year, but without that late season play-off tease.

by Punch Rockgroin on Mar 31, 2006 3:23 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
oh man, i think it would be awful if they actually made it to the playoffs.  there's no way they would win a game.  The Pedro Martinez-Pedro Feliz matchup makes my stomach churn.  Better to let the Dodgers get destroyed in three straight.

by gdog @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 31, 2006 3:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: NL West
If they make the playoffs with a healthy team their chances are very good. In a short series they have a 1-2-3 top of the rotation that can match up well with any team. If they get to the playoffs it also means that Cain has likely come through and he has the potential to be better than any of the pitchers on the squad. In addition a healthy Giants lineup can rake with any team in baseball, Yankees, Cardinals, anybody.

This is a team whose questions center around staying healthy over the course of 162 games, not one that doesn't have the talent to go far in the playoffs. They win the division, they can win it all.

by Sayhey on Mar 31, 2006 3:36 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't care if they win it with 65 wins...
...the team with the better record is 19-23 in the divisional playoffs, 7-15 since 2000, and 0-4 in series involving the Giants.

Just get there, kids... it don't have to be pretty.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Mar 31, 2006 3:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: NL West
Best case scenario for the Fodgers is 88 wins. Best case scenario for the Giants (i.e., Bonds plays 120+ games) is over 90 wins. (assuming neither team lands a Miguel Cabrera or Dontrelle or other uber star)

Our starters 1-5 are better than theirs. Our Outfield is clearly better than theirs (Only Drew would even make our squad). We have a better offense. They have an edge in bullpen assuming Gagne is back to 90%. They probably have a defensive edge in the OF and its a wash on the infield.

Worst case scenario for either team is what happened last year (Giants win 75 games and Fodgers win 71).

We have one more edge. The Fodgers are the most vile vermin ever to participate in organized or disorganized professional or amateur sports. Edge to Giants.

It may be close, but our team is simply better. Duck the Fodgers.

"When am I ever gonna have a chance to win a lousy freakin' championship? One time! Not twenty! One lousy GD time!" - Chris "Mad dog" Russo

by nostocksjustbonds on Mar 31, 2006 3:40 PM PST reply actions  

Lowry signs
4 years, $9M.  good deal!  (for once)

by gdog @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 31, 2006 3:43 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Lowry signs
you're too fast.
I don't beleive in editing.

by MeSoKrabby on Mar 31, 2006 3:45 PM PST up reply actions  

BREAKING NEWS!!
Accoding to ESPN:

Pitcher Noah Lowry has reached preliminary agreement on a four-year contract with the San Francisco Giants, a baseball source told ESPN.com.

The deal is believed to be worth more than $9 million guaranteed and includes a fifth-year option that could bring the total value of the contract to about $17 million. If the option is exercised it will take Lowry through the 2010 season, when he becomes eligible for free agency.

No Whammy, No Whammy...

I don't beleive in editing.

by MeSoKrabby on Mar 31, 2006 3:45 PM PST reply actions  

Re: BREAKING NEWS!!
Forgive me if I take everything ESPN has to say at face value.  Maybe when they stop with the daily Barry Bonds updates on Sportscenter (produced by MTV with special promotional fees paid by Coors Light, Sobe, Right Guard, and Slim Jim) I'll start listening to what they have to say.
"Hats for bats...keep bats warm." ~ Pedro 'still swinging at slop nightly' Cerrano

by PacBellBoozer on Apr 2, 2006 12:43 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: NL West
That actually makes up for Coutlangus.  Lowry for 2.5 a year.  Woo hoo!

by orangeandblackattack on Mar 31, 2006 3:53 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
Dear Grant,

Fantastic predictions! I couldn't agree with you more.

Sincerely,
Dayne Perry

(You should be ashamed)

by mxmob33 on Mar 31, 2006 4:00 PM PST reply actions  

wait a minute......
Picking the Dodgers is an April Fools, right?

by paleepalou on Mar 31, 2006 4:14 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
A pseudo-scientific comparison of Dodgers and Giants.  

Good                   Evil              Verdict
Schmidt                Lowe              Schmidt
Morris                 Penny             Tie
Lowry                  Perez             Lowry
Cain                   Tomko             Cain
Wright                 Seo               Seo.  

Rotation = Giants 2 to Dodgers 2.  

Corriea               Houlton            Correia
Fassero               Carter             Fassero
Taschner              Kuo                Taschner
Munter                Osoria             Munter
Kline                 Baez               Baez  
Worrell               Brazoban           Worrell
Benitez               Gagne              Gagne

Bullpen = Giants 5 and Dodgers 2.  

Lineup:

Matheny               Navarro            Matheny
Niekro               Garciaparra      Garciaparra
Durham                Kent               Kent
Vizquel               Furcal             Furcal
Feliz                 Mueller            Mueller
Bonds                 Cruz, Jr?          Bonds
Winn                  Lofton             Winn
Alou                  Drew               Tie

Lineup = Giants 3 and Dodgers 4

Bench
Greene               Alomar             Greene
Sweeney              Saenz              Sweeney
Vizcaino             Robles             Robles
Finley               Ledee              Finley
Ellison             Werth/Repko         Ellison

Bench = Giants 4 and Dodgers 1

Conclusion:

The Dodgers' slightly better line up will not be enough to make up for their lack of depth and weak bullpen.  Dodgers will start strong, but grow weaker over the season.  Giants will beat them out for the division title in the final week of the season.    

by orangeandblackattack on Mar 31, 2006 4:29 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
So final score 14 - 9 we beat them by 5 games?
Dave "Stinky" Flemming

by WalrusMan on Mar 31, 2006 4:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: NL West
Sounds about right.  

by orangeandblackattack on Mar 31, 2006 4:43 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
Grant, you need to get back in touch with your inner fanboy.

by EliminateMe on Mar 31, 2006 4:57 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Let's get Serious
Evil 0-162!
"When am I ever gonna have a chance to win a lousy freakin' championship? One time! Not twenty! One lousy GD time!" - Chris "Mad dog" Russo

by nostocksjustbonds on Mar 31, 2006 5:42 PM PST up reply actions  

NL West
Hell Grant, the Dodgers?  

Well, injuries aside--either I'll look good or I won't have any control over what happens--I believe that the division will go like this:

Giants
Dodgers
Padres
D-Backs
Rockies

To add some fun to things, I think that the baseball Gods and one angry and motivated Barry Bonds (demi-God) will take the Giants to the World Series.  I mean, isn't this just one of those kinds of years?

I'm not happy with our age, but Giants to greater heights.

Go Giants!

 

by Kent @ McCovey Chronicles on Mar 31, 2006 6:06 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
Are you kidding me? And you were off to such a good start.

DODGERS indeed.

by tk on Mar 31, 2006 7:10 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
Quite simple really.

Bonds plays = 120+ Games:

Giants Boatrace this most malignant of divisions.

Bonds plays = < 81 Games:

Tune into The World Series of Pinnochle
Big Road Apple Sports hosted by Mike "Drooling" Lupica

Bonds = >80 but < 120  it could be intersting...or not.  It will depend on how Felipe and Jobu mangle the pitching staff this year.

Despite protestations from Magowan and Company.
We are still a one-trick pony.  :(

As for the Orcs from Mt Blue Doom:  May they go ye forth and engage in self-copulation.  

As for the Padroxback pudding pie:
Who The F-bomb Gives A S-bomb

i porked my username, but wtfgas anyway?

by E Ticket on Mar 31, 2006 7:28 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
          I'm not ashamed of you Grant. I mean, I don't even know you, how could I have that personal a feeling about your opinion? To me you're just some kinda witty guy who lacks the courage of his convictions and  who sold me a silly t-shirt.  But I do know that if I ran a 'fan' site dedicated to a baseball team, a team that a lot of reputable sports writers have picked to win the division,  that wild horses couldn't make me predict that a hated rival would beat my team in the end. I just couldn't be that big of a hypocrite. I threw the T-shirt away though.

by prospecthound on Mar 31, 2006 8:56 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
you can't pick the giants in good conscious, but you can pick LA?!?!? No!!!!!

Duck the Fodgers!

http://zachls.blogspot.com/

by zachls on Mar 31, 2006 11:47 PM PST reply actions  

Re: NL West
I agree with E; if Bonds plays fewer than 80 games, it will be a cruel summer. If Bonds plays 120 or more, we're golden. My guess is, it'll be somewhere in between, and so it'll definitely be a contest.

I also think orangeandblackattack has the analysis down cold. The Giants are a better team, and should win the division* (*void where prohibited by mental health professionals. Your experience may vary. Contest ends Oct. 1st. If ballgame persists for longer than four hours, consult a physician).

Grant, I think it's healthy that you have some skepticism about the Giants this year. How could we not after last year? And yet.....  I've been to the Lorraine Motel; I've looked up at the balcony; and I can safely say that, although the dreamer may be gone, the Dream is STILL ALIVE.

San Francisco: 91-71
Los Angeles: 87-75
Arizona: 80-82
San Diego: 71-91
Colorado: 68-94

D'backs, Pads, and Rockies only have one good starter each (Estes is the Pads #2! nuff said). I think Barry will be Barry, just slightly less often. Cain will finish 3rd in the Rookie of the Year balloting. Lowry will establish himself. Munter will be the saviour of the bullpen. Niekro will be acceptable. Vizquel will still flash the leather. Matheny will still surprise you doubters. Frandsen will shine in his 3-week fill-in stint as our starting 2B, giving us hope for next year and a reality check for Durham. Jack Taschner's mom will post on MCC. On the strength of our pitching, we'll beat the Mets in the NLDS and the Cards in the NLCS.

by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Apr 2, 2006 12:42 PM PDT reply actions  

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