Jottings
- Jamey Wright is the answer, but only if the question is, "What would Russ Ortiz's career numbers look like if he had played in Coors Field?" I'll give anyone a free pass after pitching in Coors, but Wright showed nothing in Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Omaha, Oklahoma, or Colorado Springs to indicate he'll ever be more than a below-average pitcher. I hope to be proven wrong, and the free pass given to Coors victims does extend quite a bit.
A lot of my anti-Wright sentiments come from his yicky K/BB ratios, and from the fact he strikes out less than five batters for every nine innings he pitches. He has, however, been able to parlay those awful peripherals into three full major-league seasons with an ERA under 5.00, all in hitter's parks. Maybe walks and strikeouts aren't the best way to measure a wild groundball pitcher like Wright, just as they often shortchanged the best years of Ortiz's career. I have absolutely no interest in watching a pitcher who averages a walk every other inning. That's just boring baseball. But with a spacious ballpark and renewed confidence, maybe Wright can approximate the performance turned in by Brett Tomko last year. Doubtful, but March isn't the time to completely write a player off.
- Hey. That's kind of fun. With a new workout regiment and a clearly defined role, maybe Jason Ellison can approximate the performance turned in by Dave Roberts last year. Doubtful, but...well, just doubtful. I'm a sucker for the puff stories that include things like, "Player X decided to get stronger in the offseason," and Ellison has certainly been backing it up with his spring stats. However, I'll keep the cynicism up until June. Were it up to me, Linden would make the team and Ellison would be starting for the Marlins, a team desperate for any sort of center fielder.
I also wouldn't trade Linden. Yes, he looked like a bastard child of J.R. Phillips born without thumbs in his major league time the last two seasons, but Linden led the minors in slugging percentage. I don't care if a player is repeating a league for the 17th time, and I don't care if the player is in the Pacific Coast League, you can't just discard that kind of power before making absolutely sure it isn't going to translate to the majors. His trade value isn't going to be any higher, but that doesn't make a difference when the value is negligible to begin with.
- With new hamstrings taken from a decathlete's cadaver and twenty less pounds, maybe Armando Benitez can approximate the performance turned in by Brad Lidge last year. Doubtful, but March isn't the time to completely write a player off.
Wait, no, I think I've filed the initial paperwork which allows me to completely write Benitez off. When pitchers like Matt Cain or Matt Morris have lofty ERAs in the spring, it isn't a big concern. Nothing should be in spring training. The case of Benitez is different, however. At no point in his young Giants career has he shown even a glimmer of the talent which made him rich. The injury he had was serious, and it's understandable if the road to recovery is a long one, but it's disconcerting when Felipe Alou is getting excited about low-90s fastballs. Benitez didn't look like much of a pitcher before the injury, he didn't look so hot when he was rushed back, and the trend is continuing into April.
I remember going to Arizona in March of 2000, and watching a post-surgery Robb Nen warm in the bullpen. It was a sad and depressing event. The fastballs couldn't get past the typical community college benchwarmer, and the sliders never came close to the plate. He came in to pitch in the game, and was slapped around by Milwaukee's Z-team for six batters. At that point, I wouldn't have picked Nen in a fantasy draft if it were a choice between him and an injured Rich Loiselle. Nen shut me up, and done shut me up right, having one of the best seasons of his career.
The moral of the story? I'm still ready to write off Benitez, even after that heartwarming anecdote.
Panic-free time allotted to Wright: Ten starts
Panic-free time allotted to Ellison: 100 at-bats
Panic-free time allotted to Benitez: One double allowed. It ain't fair, but it's the truth.
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33 comments
Comments
Re: Jottings
by Kitspool on Mar 28, 2006 2:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Jottings
by Grant on Mar 28, 2006 3:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Jottings
by Pants Man on Mar 28, 2006 3:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Jottings
Okay, I'll be honest. I'm panicking when he warms up.
by Josh from Hollywood on Mar 28, 2006 3:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Jottings
by Skaldheim on Mar 28, 2006 4:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Jottings
You need to look at his road numbers for more valid metrics, everything gets too skewed in Colorado.
OK, he still walks way too many guys per 9 but he keeps his H/9 down and so his stat line over the past three years on the road is not bad, and it would be pretty good for a #5 starter: ERA 4.07, WHIP 1.51, BA .256, 6.0 K/9, 4.7 W/9, which leads to the low K/W of 1.3, and 0.9 HR/9. His career road numbers are not much worse, if you think it was a fluke three years and not growth, his ERA was 4.25 and his WHIP was 1.51 for his career, with 5.1 K/9, 4.5 W/9, 0.8 HR/9, 1.2 K/W. Either would be great for a #5 starter.
He gets away with his high WHIP and W/9 and low K/W because he is one of the extreme groundball pitchers in the majors, the ratio to FB was around 2 over the past 3 seasons and has been around 2 for his whole career. I calculated his WHIP/9 (or BR/9 in other terminology) and subtracted 0.8 runner for a double play each game (0.8 DP/games started over his career), his WHIP drops to 1.42, which is good period; and with the good Giants defense, the DP would go up and the WHIP could go even lower.
And we saw how a sinkerball pitcher does in SF with Munter. Wright is also a sinkerballer too. That lead to his career numbers in SF being great: 2.29 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .184 BAA, but there's the old walk bugaboo, 5.3 W/9, but it is probably inflated a bit by Bonds, 3.1 K/9 (Giants have a lot of disciplined hitters in Bonds, Alou, Durham, Alfonzo, Snow, Vizquel, over the past few years who walk a lot and don't strike out a lot), and zero homers.
Combine both together, and Wright looks like a cinch to at least match what Jensen, Foppert, Moss, and Hennessey provided as the 5th starter over the past few years, looks like he can possibly match what Tomko has done for the Giants as our 3rd starter, and possibly could even throw in a high-3 ERA if things work out like they have in the past.
You need to put on Orange glasses and if you look closely and reverse the image, you'll see Kirk Rueter on the mound instead of Jamey Wright.
And the last kicker is this provides Hennessey a chance to spend a year in AAA, hopefully unbothered, to work on becoming consistently good instead of a roll of the dice. With Correia as the first runner up, he gets first dibs on any starter opening and maybe Matt Kiney slides into the Miss Congenality spot and come up to start if they need another starter beyond Correia and maybe Fassero.
You saw how good Hennessey could be on his best days, we need to maximize the odds that he does that on a regular basis, instead of irregularly. People forget that he was just recovering from his tumor surgeries when he came up in 2004, it was his first healthy year, so he has been bouncing around between the majors and minors for the past two seasons. Stabilize him by keeping him in AAA at almost all cost in 2006 so that he can maximize his potential for 2007 and beyond by working on becoming consistent, else we risk him becoming another Tomko wandering from team to team giving a new excuse why he is not reaching his potential.
by Martin BiasedGiantsFanatic on Mar 28, 2006 3:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Jottings
Really, how can you argue with that impeccable logic? Right? Right?
by Skaldheim on Mar 28, 2006 4:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Jottings
In defense of optimism re. Wright: if he keeps the nasty movement but gets more confidence to throw strikes with it -- and just generally becomes a smarter pitcher at the age of 30, which wouldn't be unprecedented (Schilling, Moyer, Schmidt, etc) -- the Giants may win the lottery.
by leftymalo on Mar 28, 2006 4:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Jottings
by MeSoKrabby on Mar 28, 2006 3:45 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Answer...
by kenshin1 on Mar 28, 2006 4:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Jottings
by mccormick22 on Mar 28, 2006 7:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Jottings
u catch those doods' arm, glove and foot work?
I haven't seen that kind of infield entertainment since Billy D William's -- Bingo Long's Traveling All-Stars and Motor Kings
by E Ticket on Mar 28, 2006 7:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
One point to be worried...
by WalrusMan on Mar 28, 2006 9:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: One point to be worried...
by Josh from Hollywood on Mar 28, 2006 9:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: One point to be worried...
by WalrusMan on Mar 28, 2006 10:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: One point to be worried...
Also, I saw Draper reported that Wright threw 80 pitches today, and that was on 3 days rest, so he's probably ready to go at least 90 in his 1st real start -- that should get him through 5 or 6.
by Josh from Hollywood on Mar 28, 2006 10:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: One point to be worried...
by Pants Man on Mar 29, 2006 12:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: One point to be worried...
Also, Wright may have also pitched at the minor league camp.
by Fog City Blues on Mar 28, 2006 10:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Jottings
by Lyle on Mar 29, 2006 6:20 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
A reminder....
Personal attacks get bounced...
Bouncing comments gives me cheap thrills...
I've been on the cheap thrills wagon for years now, and I'd hate to fall off...
So, please, no name-calling.
by Grant on Mar 29, 2006 9:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: A reminder....
by WalrusMan on Mar 29, 2006 10:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone remember the old, moderated...
by multiphasic on Mar 29, 2006 12:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: A reminder....
what else is there to do till the season starts other than flame each other.
its been raining too much for too long...bring on kruk and kuip, and bonds. and FELIPE
I miss the smell of napalm in the morning after another one his brilliant pitching changes.
and to whoever it was: Its "Mr." Jaggof to you
by E Ticket on Mar 29, 2006 8:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: A reminder....
by Lyle on Mar 30, 2006 5:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: A reminder....
by Grant on Mar 30, 2006 9:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Though...
(Kidding....)
by Grant on Mar 30, 2006 9:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Though...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A1091350
by Lyle on Apr 2, 2006 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Objection overruled!
by Lyle on Apr 3, 2006 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Jottings
1 - Bonds' health
2 - Schmidt's health
3 - Benitez's health
4 - Hennessey's competence as a fifth starter
5 - Niekro's competence as an everyday first baseman.
At the end of Spring Training my biggest concerns are:
1 - Bonds' health
2 - Benitez's health
3 - Wright's competence as a fifth starter
4 - Niekro's competence as an everyday first baseman
5 - Schmidt's health.
I feel sooo much better. Actually, about Schmidt's health I do feel much better. Is the glass 20% full?
by Sayhey on Mar 29, 2006 3:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Jottings
Panic free time allotted to F. Alou: 1 hook of M. Cain in the 4th with the lead. Or 1 unintelligible pre-game interview. Whichever comes first.
Panic-free time allotted to M. Alou: 1 trip to the men's room.
Panic-free time allotted to P. Feliz: 1 swing-through at first-pitch high heat.
My panic-free time allotted to A. Benitez: 1 week of the clubhouse buffets.
by ilykeitlykedat on Mar 29, 2006 4:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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