Lineup Generator

by squirrel on Feb 25, 2006 12:04 PM PST Comment 14 comments

With all the talk about optimal lineups recently, I though this David Pinto post was interesting. Just drop in nine players and their OBA and SLG, and it calculates what lineup will give you the most and least runs. The one I did had Barry batting first almost every time. Now we just have to get him to agree with it...

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Re: Lineup Generator

I did that and got the best lineup scoring 4.672 runs with Bonds leading off and the pitcher hitting 8th. I guess they think that getting onbase is more important at 9 than 8. It gave me
Bonds
Alou
Winn
Feliz
Durham
Niekro
Matheny
pitcher
Vizquel
as the best lineup.

by sanfranfan on Feb 25, 2006 6:30 PM PST reply actions

Re: Lineup Generator

Must the time for this or maybe they are linking to the same places. I posted a couple of other links on another diary about 4 below on lineups:

there is an article on The Hardball Times with one short but good blurb on research on lineups:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ten-things-i-didnt-know/

It is near the end, 8th I think, but has a lot of good links, including one to a "toy" someone put together to calculate the expected runs created by any lineup you create, so people can run their lineups posted here on there and see what their runs created looks like. And maybe post their results here for bragging rights.

There was also a link there to another article which I found incomprehensible until I read the part 1 of that article, which I will provide a link here: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296

Go Giants!!!

by Martin BiasedGiantsFanatic on Feb 25, 2006 7:54 PM PST reply actions

Re: Lineup Generator

I did both last 2005 stats (2004 for Bonds) and career stats.

Career Lineup (4.554 runs)

Bonds
Alou
Winn
Niekro
Durham
Feliz
Matheny
Pitcher (.190 OBP .215 SLG)
Vizquel

2005/2004 Bonds (5.827 runs)
Bonds
Alou
Matheny
Winn
Durham
Niekro
Feliz
Pitcher (.190 OBP .215 SLG)
Vizquel

Hmm....I didn't know that.

by WalrusMan on Feb 25, 2006 8:12 PM PST reply actions

Re: Lineup Generator

I always wondered about the 8 vs. 9 thing. I think another thing, not really on our team, but on other teams, is that you don't have the pitcher clogging the base paths in front of the leadoff guy, all game, assuming he gets on. Or if you do the NL standard and bat the catcher 8th, you have him clogging the bases for the fastest player. Matheny will be lousy wherever.

The reason to bat the pitcher 9th is, to me, the same logic that puts Bonds in the #1 hole. More ABs per year, statistically, for the #1, and the least for the #9. But since when have statistics mattered to the Gigantes de hacking at slop nightly?

by BlackDougal on Feb 25, 2006 9:48 PM PST reply actions

Pitcher batting 8th

Tony LaRussa experimented with this in 98. This article says he stopped because it caused too much distraction, and that he'd like it if other managers started doing it too...

by EliminateMe on Feb 27, 2006 3:53 PM PST up reply actions

Re: Pitcher batting 8th

I remember him experimenting with that too, he should get his buddy Felipe doing it too.

If I recall correctly, some teams in the AL are already doing something like that, putting the higher OBP guy 9th vs. 8th, to get something going into the top of the lineup.

Go Giants!!!

by Martin BiasedGiantsFanatic on Feb 27, 2006 9:37 PM PST up reply actions

I used the 2006 PECOTA numbers

and the AVG 2005 NL Pitcher line:

Last    OBP    SLG
Alou    .374    .484
Bonds    .459    .652
Durham    .358    .435
Feliz    .307    .446
Matheny    .297    .384
Niekro    .312    .441
Vizquel    .334    .356
Winn    .348    .439
Pitcher    .164    .190

Best Lineup:
4.683 Runs Per Game

Bonds
Alou
Winn
Niekro
Durham
Feliz
Matheny
2005 Avg NL Pitcher
Vizquel

Looking at the next best lineups, switching Durham and Winn in the 3 and 5 slots didn't change much, and switching Niekro and Feliz and to some extent Matheny in the 4 and 6 and 7 slots doesn't change much.

Worst Lineup:
3.881 Runs Per Game

2005 Avg NL Pitcher
Matheny
Winn
Vizquel
Niekro
Durham
Alou
Bonds
Feliz

The Difference between Best Lineup and Worst Lineup is about 129 Runs, which is usually about 13 Wins. Although, at the points we'd be dropping from and to, I think 13 wins is understating the impact of 129 less runs.

by Nick Schulte on Feb 26, 2006 7:39 AM PST reply actions

Wow.

That's a phenomenally huge difference. 129 runs?? That's the difference between last year's Cardinals offense and last year's Pirates offense.

If this is even half true, we're going to have to start taking lineup construction much more seriously.

by Evan on Feb 27, 2006 7:44 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Wow.

Derek Zumsteg ran the same exercise for the Mariners (http://ussmariner.com/?p=3329) and came up with a best/worst difference of only 36 runs over the course of a season. Pinto did the same for the Yankees and came up with a difference of 31 runs. So we're extreme, as one might expect for a lineup featuring Superman and a few extremely low OBP guys.

See also some good discussion in the comments at that USSM link....

by Evan on Feb 27, 2006 8:09 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Wow.

The other thing to note in terms of 129 runs ... this is also the difference between the "optimal" lineup and then the kind of slop that a Dodger fan would run out for us. I'm sure that when it comes to semi-intelligent lineup construction the differences are much smaller, and so we can safely ignore lineup construction for the most part.

by thegiantsrj00r0x0r on Feb 27, 2006 8:23 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Wow.

Pinto actually addressed this in a post today. His point was that the more balanced your lineup is, the lower your difference will be with different lineups. I think Barry throws that off for us, becasue the at bats he loses batting anywhere other than first or second are going to count for a lot more than if say, Bobby Crosby lost them.

by squirrel on Feb 27, 2006 9:24 AM PST up reply actions

Re: Wow.

The balance is a key issue. Another reason is that we have a pitcher that's basically worthless. The Yankees and the Mariners are also not going to have that. And the worst lineup is not even close to anything someone would put on the lineup card.

Also, I've read a little bit how this generator was created and I don't trust these numbers at all. The method, with coefficient values for OBP and SLG varying for each lineup spot, wasn't really meant to be used for an "optimal lineup generator," but more of a comparison to typical lineups, and then someone else took it and made it into the generator.

by Nick Schulte on Feb 27, 2006 12:00 PM PST up reply actions