More Lowry
IF: Ted Lilly is worth a four-year contract close to $10M per...
THEN: Noah Lowry, signed for the next four seasons for a total of $14M, is one of the biggest bargains in the game.
You can't front on that logic. I went over a lot of this here, but that was before Lowry's name was actually coming up in rumors. Lowry for Sexson? Not a fair deal. Lowry did have a down year last year, but he's pitched more 200-inning seasons than Lilly over his career. Sexson is good, but owed far more than he's worth. Lowry for Ramirez, with the Giants neglecting to sign Bonds? That'd be a legendary blunder, as Lowry + Bonds = more financial flexibility for 2008 and a better team for 2007.
I'm not saying that Lowry is destined for greatness, but that he's destined for competence. He's already established he can be a middle of the rotation starter, and should only be dealt for pre-arbitration players or for young players whose arbitration years have also been bought out. Mike Jacobs, maybe. Wily Mo Pena and friends, perhaps.
But you just know -- feel it in the pit of your soul -- that one of these is going to come about:
Lowry for Garrett Anderson
Lowry for Richie Sexson
Lowry for Melvin Mora
Lowry for Geoff Jenkins and Derrick Turnbow
Lowry for Pat Burrell
Mark Mulder for 2/$15M (with incentives)
Jason Marquis for 3/$27M
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Other possibilities
Would you do a Lowry for Nick Johnson or Josh Fields and Brian Anderson?
Also I heard a deal that includes both Lowry and Sanchez. Lowry and Sanchez are mutually exclusive so it is an "OR" and not an "AND" proposition.
Re: Other possibilities
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Dec 5, 2006 9:37 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Other possibilities
by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 6, 2006 7:12 AM PST up reply actions
Re: More Lowry
Join the club.
by GiantJim on Dec 5, 2006 9:21 AM PST reply actions
Re: More Lowry
I guess it just comes down to if Sexson will be worth $60M over the next two years. Why do I doubt that Sabean is looking at it this way?
And you're absolutely right about the Bonds/free agent pitcher fallout, Grant. I like Burrell, but a Lowry-Burrell deal would really be...
Lowry (four cheap years) and Bonds (one expensive year)
for
Suppan (four expensive years) and Burrell (two expensive years)
We'd be worse in 2007 (probably), and would just keep accumulating bad contracts.
C'mon, Brian... finish the year strong. I promise I won't bitch about the Feliz and Roberts deals too much if you promise not to screw this up.
Re: More Lowry
"At the same time, Sabean is meeting with several teams about acquiring a power hitter -- to complement Bonds or replace him -- and a meeting was scheduled with the Red Sox to discuss Ramirez. Any deal with Boston likely would involve a third team because the Red Sox need more than the Giants can offer.
They want a closer and shortstop, and Nationals GM Jim Bowden admitted he's in a three-way conversation (without mentioning the teams) and could offer Chad Cordero and Felipe Lopez. The Giants would send young pitchers (not necessarily big-league ready) to Washington and receive Ramirez, who's owed $38 million over the final two years of his contract."
The "not necessarrily big-league ready" was intriguing. Perhaps we've been over-valuing Manny in this conjecture and Boston is delaing from a position of weakness since everyone knows they want to get rid of him.
If an idiot like me can see Lowry has a lot of value because of his contract, a smart guy like Sabean has to realize it as well, right? (Goofus asks innocently.)
Re: More Lowry
The question is what the Nationals would want in return for Cordero and Lopez and some salary relief of their own. I'm thinking this would mean something like Sanchez(our best not necessarily big-league ready pitcher)/Lewis(Bowden loves toolsy OF)/Correia(bullpen arm to replace Cordero)/lower level prospect(maybe from Red Sox).
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This all seems pretty far-fetched.
by Nick Schulte on Dec 5, 2006 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
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by GiantJim on Dec 5, 2006 2:34 PM PST up reply actions
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by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 6, 2006 7:15 AM PST up reply actions
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this town thinks you're a bastard - Elvis Costello
Re: More Lowry
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Dec 5, 2006 7:25 PM PST up reply actions
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by gdog @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 5, 2006 9:37 AM PST reply actions
Re: More Lowry
Lowry for Garrett Anderson
Lowry for Richie Sexson
Lowry for Melvin Mora
Lowry for Geoff Jenkins and Derrick Turnbow
Lowry for Pat Burrell"
all of these would be typical sabean. i'm all for getting another big bat - but not at the expense of one of our current starters. i hope the mention in the chronicle - 'not necessarily big-league ready' is true. geoff genkins and pat burrell seemed like they could be had if the other team just took on their contract. for us to give up lowry and take on the money would be a crime.
by benson11 on Dec 5, 2006 9:42 AM PST reply actions
Just Saw this on Rotoworld
The Mercury News believes the Giants would have to send Noah Lowry, Jonathan Sanchez and Brian Wilson to Washington in order to pull off the rumored three-team Manny Ramirez deal.
That's most of the quality young pitching in the organization right there. If the Giants were willing to do that, the Nationals could send both Chad Cordero and Felipe Lopez to Boston, with Ramirez going to San Francisco. Still, a deal is considered a long shot.
I know its just rumors but if that trade went down I think I might throw up all over myself.
Re: Just Saw this on Rotoworld
Re: Just Saw this on Rotoworld
I don't think the Giants should do it, but it makes more sense.
by Nick Schulte on Dec 5, 2006 10:12 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Just Saw this on Rotoworld
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Dec 5, 2006 10:19 AM PST up reply actions
Re: Just Saw this on Rotoworld
I can barf anything , better than you.
No you can't
Yes I can
I cant seem to remember the name of that old show tune. Or actually what musical that was from seeing as I dont't go to musicals.
by E Ticket on Dec 5, 2006 5:34 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Just Saw this on Rotoworld
by Lyle @ McCovey Chronicles on Dec 6, 2006 7:17 AM PST up reply actions
Age is not a factor when you're dead
Re: More Lowry
The fact that guys were sitting on Lowry's change-up last year was pretty scary. I don't know if his velocity dropped or something, but he had a pretty scary decline in strikeouts in 2006. I could see him staying fairly strong and being a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy, or I could also see a Rueteresque decline happening. I suspect Sabean is banking on the latter.
by Josh from The New Giant Thrill on Dec 5, 2006 10:05 AM PST reply actions
Re: More Lowry
Regarding Lowry, I think we'd be selling low since he's coming off the oblique injury. Whether he wasn't fully healed or it screwed up his mechanics, I think he's likely to be much better this year and is a guy we'd regret trading. (I don't want to refer to him as "Noah Nathan" all season long.)
Re: More Lowry
by E Ticket on Dec 5, 2006 5:36 PM PST up reply actions
Re: More Lowry
In other words, we kind of know his ceiling by now. And we also know that his value could drop Jerome-style if he doesn't rebound next year.
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Next question, then: who would you have to get in return if you traded, say, Linden along with Correia or Hennessy? Also, who do you think we could realistically get?
by Josh from The New Giant Thrill on Dec 5, 2006 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
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by Punch Rockgroin on Dec 5, 2006 1:39 PM PST up reply actions
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"The Giants also have had conversations with Philadelphia about Pat Burrell and Milwaukee about Geoff Jenkins, but nothing is imminent."
The Phillies are apparently holding out for Benitez.
Re: More Lowry
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Dec 5, 2006 1:51 PM PST up reply actions
Re: More Lowry
Not that giving young pitchers a shot would be armageddon. I get ripped for wanting the likes of Linecum, Sadler, Wilson, etc. to get a chance to show their stuff. It probably would be a mess- but it would be fun as hell to watch the few young guns who did begin shine... there will always be surprises (and lots of disappointments) with young pitching.
From the way Dallas Green is talking publicly, I think Burrell is definitely gunna stay put in PHI. Yet, I do think Lowry will be traded. My guess is Garret Anderson. Don't ask me why, but I've always had a strong hunch (going several years back) that Garrett Anderson would be the guy who replaces Barry in left field (and that the move wouldn't work, leaving Giants fans disappointed).
The dark horse trade bait is Kevin Frandsen. With Lowry, you would be selling low. With Frandsen coming off a killer AFL showcase, Sabean might be selling high...
Re: More Lowry
I think you would really risk trading low at this point if he can get that change-up back. If he can't get it back, then this is as good a time as you will find to get something for him. Without knowing anything more, I would probably want to hold onto him and find out, but hopefully the Giants have a better idea about this.
As to your question, if we don't trade Lowry it's going to be really hard to get another big bat. We either have to trade for a bad contract or get lucky with a AAAA 1B. I think a lot of people have given up on getting a big bat for this year and just want to have our young pitching in place for future years.
by Nick Schulte on Dec 5, 2006 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
Re: More Lowry
by Shawn Estes for President on Dec 5, 2006 3:39 PM PST up reply actions
Re: More Lowry
Good Trade Hunting
Lowry for Jacque Jones
Lowry for Garrett Anderson
Lowry for Richie Sexson
Lowry for Melvin Mora
Lowry for Geoff Jenkins and Derrick Turnbow
Lowry for Pat Burrell, and say, "Choose."
Sean: Well, I gotta go with Sexson there.
Will: I used to go with Jones.
Sean: Why?
Will: Cause f*ck him, that's why.
Re: Good Trade Hunting
A+++++++ COMMENT! LOVED READING IT!!!! WOULD READ POSTS FROM AGAIN! CREDIT TO MCCOVEYCHRONICLES.COM!
by Grant Brisbee on Dec 5, 2006 6:40 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Good Trade Hunting
Re: More Lowry
This is a great blog. I'm going to be sure to link yours to mine. Would you mind doing the same for me?
Thank you very much.
My site:
www.americanlegends.blogspot.com
Take care,
Mark
by JMEnglish on Dec 5, 2006 10:18 AM PST reply actions
Re: More Lowry
If the Giants were somehow able to get MANNY (maybe for SANCHEZ, LINDEN + PROSPECTS) and sign Bonds, what would the lineup look like??
Might it be:
CF ROBERTS
SS VIZQUEL
LF BONDS
IB MANNY
2B DURHAM
3B AURILIA
RF FELIZ
C MOLINA
Not much youth, but that would still be the best lineup in the division....
The advantage of having AURILIA & FELIZ is that they can play several positions and be moved around. I dont think that FELIZ has played RF, but he's a good fielder with a good arm, and could probably learn it....
????????
If so - do we then trade LINDEN or WINN???
WYNN has a no-trade clause, but would probable be agreeable to a trade if he knew that he would not see any playing time in his FREE AGENT year.
BARRY & MANNY are a couple of prima donnas, but I have a feeling that they might go well together.
They're both very competitive, and we certainly would have a lot of pop with the above lineup...
If we're going to spend $$$'s for another pitcher, my first choice would be MECHE.
Youngest with the biggest upside.
Thoughts on this?????????
by maysman on Dec 5, 2006 10:25 AM PST reply actions
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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 5, 2006 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
He played..
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I'd like to get MANNY, but LOWRY, SANCHEZ & WILSON is just TOO MUCH!!!!!!
PLEASE DO NOT MAKE THIS TRADE!!!!!!
by maysman on Dec 5, 2006 10:30 AM PST reply actions
Re: More Lowry
In spite of what SABEAN may be saying, THERE IS NO WAY THAT BOTH MANNY RAMIREZ AND BARRY BONDS WILL BE ON THIS TEAM NEXT YEAR. They play the same position and neither one is going to change.
This is how things will probably play out:
SABEAN will make a ridiculous trade and give up
LOWRY, SANCHEZ & BRIAN WILSON for MANNY.
MANNY will VETO the trade, thinking that the GIANTS are going to sign BONDS and change his position.
BONDS - pissed off that the Giants tried to trade for MANNY and dump him - will sign with OAKLAND.
WE'LL WIND UP WITH NO ONE AND GET SCREWED!!
by maysman on Dec 5, 2006 11:39 AM PST reply actions
Actually..
Re: Actually..
by cksf on Dec 5, 2006 1:18 PM PST up reply actions
Re: More Lowry
I think we all should have whiplash thrice-over, from all the rumors we have been yapping after - and I'm as guilty of it as anyone.
But I agree that Lowry's contract is very good and the only reason to trade him would be to get a good young hitter who we can control for a number of years too. With Lincecum possibly ready by mid-season, all you need is someone to keep the seat warm until Tim is ready, in the ideal situation.
Barring a Miquel Cabrera trade, I don't think there's many out there I would trade Lowry for, he has a great contract, even if he is mediocre, and he had a down year that can be explained, so trading him now would be selling low, so what we would get would be a hitter someone else is selling low or just some hitter who is low. And if he is as good as he showed in 2005, then we could have a spectacular rotation over the next 4-5 seasons.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Dec 5, 2006 11:44 AM PST reply actions
Rumors
That thought and the whiskey have got me through the week so far.
Re: Rumors
But I think keeping Lowry and Sanchez makes the potential payoff better. If the Giants have four young strong cheap starters (Lowry, Sanchez, Cain and Lincecum), that is their best option for the future.
by GiantJim on Dec 5, 2006 2:56 PM PST up reply actions
Re: Rumors
by GiantJim on Dec 5, 2006 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
Re: More Lowry
by cksf on Dec 5, 2006 1:00 PM PST reply actions
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by giantsrainman on Dec 5, 2006 2:05 PM PST up reply actions
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http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mariners/story/6266429p-5468455c.html
"One of those rumors shot down Monday involved the Seattle Mariners, who were said to be considering trading first baseman Richie Sexson, who is owed $28 million over the next two seasons. The rumor early was that Sexson was involved in a trade that would bring Manny Ramirez - owed $38 million over the next two years - to the Mariners."
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Dec 5, 2006 2:09 PM PST reply actions
Re: More Lowry
Would you rather have a starting lineup/rotation of:
SS Vizquel
RF Manny
LF Bonds
2B Durham
1B Aurilia
C Molina
3B Feliz
Cain, Morris, Hennessey, Correia, Sanchez
or
SS Vizquel
RF Winn
LF Bonds
2B Durham
1B Aurilia
C Molina
3B Feliz
Cain, Lowry, Morris, $10 Million Warm Body, Hennessey
and you know that by not getting Manny, you've got a legitimate shot at Vernon Wells, etc, next offseason.
I'm starting to think that the worst case scenario is that first option, in which we stick to our budgetary guns, but still figure out a way to pick up Manny, because it will absolutely EVISCERATE our pitching staff and lead to outbidding the field for someone like Brian Lawrence. Yes, the lineup 1-5 could be the best in the league if the Mets continue to insist batting LoDuca in the 2-hole, but EVERYTHING would have to break just right for the pitching staff to succeed with that defense. Seriously, if we end up with both Manny and Bonds following Roberts and Dreamy, that's a formula for potentially monster success on offense, and utter disaster wrought on the young pitchers. It would be fun in a "I know! Let's repeat the 1998 Mariners season! Only with no young core!" kind of way.
Re: More Lowry
Now?
Two words: "frightened turtle."
Sigh.
Re: More Lowry
by someguynamedg on Dec 5, 2006 3:46 PM PST up reply actions
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by someguynamedg on Dec 5, 2006 3:48 PM PST up reply actions
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by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Dec 5, 2006 11:27 PM PST up reply actions
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by Punch Rockgroin on Dec 5, 2006 3:57 PM PST up reply actions
Regular salted is alwas classic..
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by benson11 on Dec 5, 2006 4:48 PM PST reply actions
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by amoose on Dec 5, 2006 5:16 PM PST up reply actions
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Reports that the Texas Rangers have offered Barry Zito a contract worth $102 million over six years.
Jesus H. Christonarake, that's a lot of money.
Re: More Lowry
Anyone else see that?
I am definately for going after Dotel, thus giving Sabean the flexibility to get Benitez out of here.
Benitez for Burrell (and probably a prospect is needed) would be an awsome trade for a number of reasons.
- It gets Benitez out of SF. no ones complaining here
- It brings in a power hitting 1B to complement Bonds.
- We are aquiring a power hitter without losing the services of Lowry, which would likely happen in a Sexson or Ramirez deal. As others have stated, Lowry is a competent number 3 starter, and 1 of only 3 proven starters on this team (morris and Cain the others)
by April3rdLifeBegins on Dec 5, 2006 7:17 PM PST reply actions
Re: More Lowry
Burrell would be a good fit for SF. He went to school in SJ and may actually even want to play for SF.
by benson11 on Dec 5, 2006 7:36 PM PST reply actions
Re: More Lowry
Burrell is definitely good. The Phillies may still be inclined to trade him for very little, though. No one in his right mind thinks that Benitez for Burrell is value for value, but the Phillies are essentially getting $19.4 million in that trade - Burrell's next two years' salary minus Benitez's salary next year. So sure, they won't get player value, but they get a ton of payroll flexibility - that $19.4m can go right into going after someone like Vernon Wells next year.
And it still makes sense for the Giants, because there are no 1Bmen available this year or next year outside a different trade, and Sexson makes $1m more over that time. Sure, it's expensive, but the Giants have no legitimate major-league first baseman and none in the minors anywhere close. You could even throw in a couple non-prospects to make the Phils feel better - how does Ortmeier and some random pitcher sound?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Dec 5, 2006 11:00 PM PST up reply actions

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