Couldn't resist....
These rumors have been floating around various diaries, with folks spouting off in each. But it's time to voltronate this discussion up into a thread that stretches through the weekend, because the rumors just won't die.
Barry Zito.
First, I love typing it. "Zito takes the mound for the Giants...Zito has pitched well over his last five starts...Zito just can't believe Molina let that one get by him...Zito's going to take a walk around the mound, and try and shake off that passed ball..." Barry Zito on the Giants! A true ace to replace Jason Schmidt! Hooray!
Well, in my mind, which is perpetually stuck in 2002, he's a true ace. In the real world, he's pretty much Noah Lowry with spottier control but a little better history of keeping runs off the board. Twenty million dollars or so...fleeeeccch.
But how about this: "Zito will pitch the first game of the series, followed by Cain, then Lowry. The Dodgers will throw out Scott Elbert to replace Jason Schmidt (strained groin), Aaron Sele to replace Randy Wolf (shoulder stiffness), and Brett Tomko to replace Brad Penny (ornery goo)."
That just sounds great when I say it, and it reads great when I type it. Zito on the Giants! A true ace!
But he's not an ace. He's a quality pitcher whose value is as much a function of his durability than anything else. Having him signed through 2011 would be a curious way to build for the future. If 20% of your payroll is going to go to one pitcher for the next five or six years, the pitcher had better be able to sneeze quality starts and shutouts. That plan works better with an increase in payroll (possible, considering the inflation of this offseason), or a quality farm system that would allow the team to compete with pre-arbitration hitters (also, cold fusion could solve the energy problems of the world, so we should look into that.)
But Zito and Cain! Cain and Zito! Cain, Zito, Lincecum, Lowry, Sanchez! Whoop whoop!
But where would the offense come from? If some crazy amount is going to Zito - say $18M a year - wouldn't that seriously hurt the chances of the Giants to sign centerpiece free agents like Adam Dunn or Andruw Jones?
But couldn't you disingenuously argue that a rotation of Zito, Cain, Lowry, Lincecum, and Sanchez will earn a combined $25M to $30M for the next few years? Even with Morris in the mix for the next two seasons, that leaves a lot of scratch for the rest of the roster. That philosophy is very reliant on young pitchers developing as expected, so there is a substantial risk. And there wouldn't be a guarantee that Sabean wouldn't continue to spend on the rotation, using the cheap players as chum. Still...Zito...on the Giants....
He's a floor wax!
He's a dessert topping!
I don't remember the last free agent I've been this conflicted about. The logic behind not signing him is sound; it really, really is. I remember watching Zito in the ALCS, and proactively laughing at the team that was going to sign him to a huge contract. He can melt down with the best of them; Randy Johnson in his prime, he's not.
But....
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53 comments
Comments
Re: Couldn't resist....
by fanofvanlandingham on Dec 15, 2006 11:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
- He's good, but he's not great.
- It's very likely that his next few years won't be as good as his last few years.
- It's going to take a horrendous, future-budget-crippling overpayment to land him.
- Even with all that, you could justify it if you had an 86-88 win team. In that case, the four or five wins (optimistic scenario) that Zito adds would be huge. But we don't have such a team. We have a .500 team, if that. Whatever he brings to the 2007 Giants won't be enough to make the difference.
by Evan on Dec 15, 2006 11:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
by Lyle on Dec 16, 2006 8:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
19-15 (Quality Starts), 112 OPS+, 1.31 WHIP, 1.82 K/BB, 6.4 K/9
17-14 (Quality Starts), 109 OPS+, 1.40 WHIP, 1.67 K/BB, 5.16 K/BB
The first pitcher is better than the second pitcher, but how many million better? The first pitcher (Zito) will likely sign between $90-$115 million, the second pitcher (Suppan) between $30-$45 million.
I wouldn't sign either, but the money for Zito is a HUGE waste.
by GiantJim on Dec 15, 2006 12:40 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
- If he gives you a better than average chance at the playoffs, this year, it's worth it.
- If he can, year after year, suck up 200 innings per season, it's worth it.
- If 18 mil/per year is cheap in three years, it's worth it.
by Booo on Dec 15, 2006 12:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
by bisquik on Dec 15, 2006 2:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
Count me on the side of doing what it takes to win the bid for Zito. No, he is not an Ace, but he is close and frankly the fact that you can almost go to the bank on 34 to 35 Starts every year with well above average ERA+ makes him more valuable to me then a "true ace" that is far more likely to miss not jsut a few starts but big pieces of multiple seasons. Just think about how the Mets feel now about giving their "true ace" Pedro 4 years. Zito is a much better bet for 8 then Pedro was for 4.
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2006 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
I'm not trying to pick on you specifically--I realize we already had a discussion in that other thread--but your comment just happened to be the one that sparked my interest. That said...
I basically think it's incorrect when you say that it's more likely for Zito to be as durable as Glavine than to be as broke as Hampton.
- Glavine's a Hall of Famer so there's not a lot of reason to expect any pitcher to be like him. Hampton's contract situation is one of the worst in recent memory (ever?) so you're sort of answering this question for us by using these two players. It's not really a fair comparison.
- It's more likely that Zito (or any pitcher) will come to miss at least a few games and/or parts of a season over the length of his contract than to go unscathed.
- Regardless, in the four years preceding his big contract, Hampton pitched 34, 32, 34, and 33 games. Averaging well over 200 IP each year.
- This is almost too perfect, most similar players by age for Barry Zito:
Age 26: Mike Hampton
Age 27: Mike Hampton
Age 28: Mike Hampton
5. That eight year contract is such a bad idea.
by coreyml on Dec 15, 2006 4:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
Age 27: Mike Hampton
Age 28: Mike Hampton
And with that, at 6:36 PST of 12/15/06, Grant finally admitted that Barry Zito would be a very, very, very bad signing.
by Grant on Dec 15, 2006 6:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2006 9:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
If you want to give Zito $130M for holding some kind of zero missed start record, then I accept your proposal to agree to disagree.
by coreyml on Dec 15, 2006 10:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
by giantsrainman on Dec 16, 2006 12:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
- Will this signing mean for the next six years the Giants won't spend money for other prominent free agents?? Will they be moaning about all that money for one player like they did so many times about Bonds?? If so, don't sign him.
- We all know Zito is not a chalk number one starter. What happens if both Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum turn out to the real deals?? Are you going to pay them the kind of money you're paying Barry Zito to keep them, or are we going to enjoy them while they're young and then watch them spend their prime years in Yankee uniforms??
by rxmeister on Dec 16, 2006 8:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
by Azmanz on Dec 16, 2006 1:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
In German, San Diego means "whale vagina." Agree to disagree.
by coreyml on Dec 16, 2006 2:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Grant
by wjackalope on Dec 15, 2006 2:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: I agree with Grant
The RedSox just went the other path and I for one think 8 years from now whomever signs Zito will look wiser then the RedSox for signing "K-Dice".
by giantsrainman on Dec 15, 2006 2:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I agree with Grant
by rxmeister on Dec 16, 2006 8:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I agree with Grant
by amoose on Dec 16, 2006 9:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I agree with Grant
by zenbitz on Dec 16, 2006 10:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I agree with Grant
by rxmeister on Dec 16, 2006 1:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: I agree with Grant
He'd be good in Shea with Beltran at his back, though.
by Evan on Dec 16, 2006 3:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Don Zito Corleone
Initially think 100m+ AND 6years for a pitcher?
Then think 28yr old healthy Cy Young award winner in his prime. Team him up with Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez and look out MLB because that elusive ring is now in sight.
by wilriv21 on Dec 15, 2006 2:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Don Zito Corleone
by zenbitz on Dec 15, 2006 3:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Don Zito Corleone
by wilriv21 on Dec 15, 2006 3:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Don Zito Corleone
hitz at stan ford dot edu
by zenbitz on Dec 16, 2006 10:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Excuse me for this, I know we're all friends here
hsssssssssssssssssssssssss
by howtheyscored on Dec 16, 2006 11:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Excuse me for this, I know we're all friends h
by zenbitz on Dec 16, 2006 3:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Excuse me for this, I know we're all friends h
It's an annoying thing that Cal students do, and I'm sorry to subject you to it, but I'm guilty because I like the rivalry and for no other reason. But on the scale of annoying things that Cal students do, I think it has to rank among the bottom. It's really just harmless.
I mean, and I thin Brian Wilson would agree with me, it's just about being true to my school.
by howtheyscored on Dec 16, 2006 3:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Excuse me for this, I know we're all friends h
by PacBellBoozer on Dec 16, 2006 10:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Don Zito Corleone
I need to get some of what you are smoking.
by oldrips on Dec 15, 2006 4:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
6yrs of Zito
by wilriv21 on Dec 15, 2006 4:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
by JakeS on Dec 15, 2006 5:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
The Giants are much better with Zito. No doubt.
You are only bugged if you worry about his the cost and duration of his contract. Which nobody here is paying. And for all we know Al Qaeda will be running the San Francisco Board of Supervisors by 2009.
None of this makes any difference because Zito is not going to sign with the Giants anymore than I am.
Thats 3 things
by E Ticket on Dec 15, 2006 6:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
If, however, he did want to stay in the area and would take something like the Texas offer 6/$100M, I don't think it would be a horrible idea. It wouldn't be a good idea, but I've seen way worse (Pierre). I would be Ok with it, just not particularly excited. Since the Giants are unlikely to make the playoffs (much less win the Series next year) with or without Zito, and since the Giants seem to have a decent amount of good young (and cheap!) pitching in the pipeline, I would prefer to keep the payroll space available to add a big bat next year either through free agency (Jones, Dunn) or trade (A-Rod).
Yes, he would look good in the French Vanilla, but so would Andruw Jones.
The current team's weaknesses, in order of severity, are:
- Offense
- Hitting
- Scoring Runs
- Bullpen
- Starting pitching
by taliesin on Dec 15, 2006 7:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
by giantsrainman on Dec 16, 2006 11:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
You can win a division with a middle of the pack offense if you have a near top of the pack rotation and middle of the pack bullpen. Barry Zito would give us a near top of the pack rotation and signing David Wells too could allow our bullpen to improve to middle of the pack by placing Hennessey, Sanchez, and Lincecum in the bullpen mix for 2007.
Taking a page out of the playbook of the 2006 RedSox how about Lincecum (ala Papelbon) as closer? Taking a page our of the playbook of the 2000 thru 2003 Twins how about Sanchez (ala Santana) as a setup man? Hennessey performed best last year as the long man out of the pen and he could have this role exclusively in 2007.
With Zito and Wells joining Cain, Lowry, and Morris in the Rotation and Lincecum, Sanchez, and Hennessey joining Correia, Chulk, Wilson, and Kline in the Bullpen I very much like the looks of this pitching staff and think it will be more the good enough to win with the offense we already have.
A final thought, if we do this we will actually have achieved being younger and healther then last year. Molina, Roberts, Linden, and Frandsen are younger and healther then Matheny, Finley, Alou, and Vizcaino. Zito, Lincecum, Sanchez, Wilson, and Hennessey are younger and healther then Schmidt, Benitez, Stanton, Worrell, and Wright. Yes, Aurilia is older then Hillenbrand and Wells is older then dirt, but overall this team would indeed be both younger and healther.
by giantsrainman on Dec 16, 2006 12:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
by mxmob33 on Dec 15, 2006 11:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
by Buzzword on Dec 16, 2006 2:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
There are still several creative ways Sabean can improve this club before April, 2007. In retrospect, I feel the 1 yr/$5m spent on Feliz was the only set-back this offseason. If Feliz is pushed to the bench, he could actually be seen as a plus instead of a minus, salary nonwithstanding.
by Kid Fresh on Dec 16, 2006 6:07 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
by rxmeister on Dec 16, 2006 8:41 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
by Goofus on Dec 16, 2006 10:32 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Barry Zito
Seriously, I'd be thrilled with a Zito signing. He's a durable, above-average pitcher who's easy to like and in his prime. Almost any team could use a guy like that.
But I can't help but look at those translated walk and strikeout rates at Baseball Prospectus and wonder if this is going to end badly. And it's not like the Giants are one player away from the World Series.
by Dan from NM on Dec 16, 2006 4:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
NO NO NO
In pitching, you never pay for reputation. As charming as Zito is, he is not going to get better over the next 5-7 years.
Pass. Don't even think about it.
by Katman on Dec 17, 2006 10:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Re: NO NO NO
This would be the ultimate case of paying for reputation instead of value.
by mxmob33 on Dec 17, 2006 2:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
by cksf on Dec 17, 2006 10:53 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Rios came into his own last season
by wilriv21 on Dec 17, 2006 3:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Rios came into his own last season
by Shawn Estes for President on Dec 18, 2006 9:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Rios came into his own last season
I have had a staph infection. In fact, I had to have knee surgery as a result. Very bad news.
Rios was quite good last year, but I don't know if his track record indicates that he would keep it up. Also, I don't know if they would give him up. They are looking at an OF of Wells, Rios, and Lind - that's nice.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Dec 18, 2006 10:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Rios came into his own last season
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Dec 18, 2006 10:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Couldn't resist....
The Giants don't need to sign a marquee player just to have a marquee player. Specific needs should be addressed, and starting pitching is near the bottom of the list.
by The Nick on Dec 20, 2006 10:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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