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Around SBN: Jeff Sullivan's MLB Trade Deadline Primer

Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the Angels

FOX Sports reports that Gary Matthews Jr. has agreed to a 5 year / 50$ mil. contract.  Combine that with Juan Pierre's signing with the Dodgers, and we're looking good so far.

Just sign Barry already!

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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I'd like to add...
I know some of you have advocated waiting til the frenzy subsides and finding some bargains left in the bin and I am wholly down with that idea.  It beats paying through the nose for mediocrity, and if we actually end up signing Jeff Suppan to a Matt Morris-like contract, I would just not follow the Giants next year.

We should sign Barry, consider Aubrey Huff for 3B, and look into Gil Meche or Tony Armas Jr.  Maybe explore the trade market once FA dries up to see if anyone wants our damaged goods (like Winn, Benitez, et al).

by losingcalifornia on Nov 22, 2006 10:40 AM PST reply actions  

Re: I'd like to add...
I like the Meche idea.  However, I have read that as many as 15 teams have shown interest in him, so expect the price to be very steep.

by amoose on Nov 22, 2006 11:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: I'd like to add...
I agree, a lot of teams will be targeting Meche because he probably has the best stuff of any of the available FA SPs.  Still, if we have to pay someone $8+ mil a year to be in our rotation, I'd much rather it be Meche than Suppan, or someone of that ilk.

Switching leagues, from AL to NL, I think would especially help a pitcher like Meche who has a very good fastball.

"I really wish these snakes were your arms..."

Losing California Productions

by losingcalifornia on Nov 22, 2006 11:18 AM PST up reply actions  

meche...
does not have a really good fastball.  he throws a 94 mph 4 seamer with no movement, which is essentially average
Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Nov 22, 2006 11:20 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: meche...
How is a 94 mph fastball essentially average?  Do we follow the same league?  

Most of the time, when I watch baseball, especially the NL, I see SPs that throw between 88-91 mph 4-seamers.  Meche, not too long ago, used to top out at 96-97.  Now, he's not going to throw that hard for the next 3-4 years, but at least he's starting from a higher average velocity than most pitchers.

"I really wish these snakes were your arms..."

Losing California Productions

by losingcalifornia on Nov 22, 2006 11:25 AM PST up reply actions  

forget I said anything...
Gill Meche is essentially Brett Tomko with considerably less talent.  Feel free to believe whatever you want.
Flossing a dead horse

by kenshin1 on Nov 22, 2006 11:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: forget I said anything...
I disagree.  I've watched a lot of Seattle games of late and I think comparing him to Tomko, while accurate insomuch that he has considerable talent, is a discredit to Meche.  Unlike Tomko I don't think he has had the opportunity to show that he doesn't have the makeup to put it together.  
As far as SP on this free agent market goes I would say he and Padilla are the only good looking options (not taking price into consideration).

by amoose on Nov 22, 2006 2:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: meche...
Well his velocity is above average, but lack of movement makes the overall pitch average.  I mean, imagine if he tires as a season progresses.  His 94 MPH will be less consistent, and will get lower, while it rides a straight(er) path that others who throw better 89-91 MPH fastballs.

Speed on a fastball isn't everything unless you're throwing ridiculous rates and accompany it with a couple of decent-to-good offspeed/breaking pitches.

by sfgfan on Nov 22, 2006 11:30 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: meche...
I know what you're saying, and all I originally said was that we should "look into" signing Gil Meche, but apparently that comment alone got Kenshin's undies in a bunch.

I've seen a lot of Meche over the years and last year he definitely took a step forward in terms of his pitching ability.

IF we were to sign a SP, I'd probably put him at the top of the list for combination of talent and signability.

"I really wish these snakes were your arms..."

Losing California Productions

by losingcalifornia on Nov 22, 2006 11:33 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: meche...
I like the idea of taking a flyer on a cheap pitcher who hasn't lived up to his talent yet, but I'm not as sold on Meche's signability as I used to be. I really thought that he would be a third-tier starter in this market and get a Tomko-esque contract, but he seems to be getting a lot of attention from around the league. I am now guessing that he will get a deal similar to the Morris/Loazia deals from last year, and that's too much to pay for a guy who has yet to put it all together for a season.
"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Nov 22, 2006 11:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: I'd like to add...
Why do we have to pay $8m to someone to start? Starting pitching's the one thing we've actually got some of. There's no need to go out and block Timmy. Let Cain/Lowry/Morris/Sanchez/Hennessy start out, or potentiall Igawa if we win a post, and bring up Lincecum when he's ready. Throwing '06 market money at a mediocre SP strikes me as the worst move possible for this club.

by Roger on Nov 22, 2006 11:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: I'd like to add...
I guess my main concern is making it through next year without damaging any of the young arms we have.  To that end, it'd be nice to have another veteran arm who can absorb some innings (not necessarily 200+, but enough so that the young guys aren't pushed too hard), and a strong bullpen.  Of course, with the ridiculous contract Speier got, we may not have a tremendous bullpen, so it'd be nice to have at least one extra SP in case injuries strike.
"I really wish these snakes were your arms..."

Losing California Productions

by losingcalifornia on Nov 22, 2006 11:30 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: I'd like to add...
Then sign some questionable starter/swingman types who can go three innings in long relief if needed.  Hennessey is one of those now.  Correia can do that, too, but he is good enough to be a higher-leverage type.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Nov 22, 2006 11:47 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: I'd like to add...
I think, realistically, the Giants should sign a proven pitcher (of some kind) if they want to be competitve.

Cain, Lowry, Morris and either Hennessey, Correia or Sanchez make four starters, but getting five out of that group would be stretching it.  The Giants are still very short in the bullpen, so we'll need two of Hennessey, Correia and Sanchez there.

However, in this FA environment, the SP possabilites are SO over inflated, I think the Giants should just invite a Jamey Wright type or two for the minor league minumum.  I would also be OKAY with signing Woody Williams to a one year deal for around $6 million.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on Nov 22, 2006 11:56 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: I'd like to add...
The ship has sailed on being competitive in 2007.

by vizqueltofrandsentoniekro on Nov 22, 2006 12:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: I'd like to add...
I'm not convinced there ever was a ship.
We'd be pretty good if we didn't suck so bad.

by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 22, 2006 12:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Sure there was a ship.
It's moored next to the USS Arizona at the bottom of Pearl Harbor.

by Moggeee on Nov 22, 2006 12:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sure there was a ship.
Forget being competitive in 2007 - its a fools bargain.

by Aadik on Nov 22, 2006 12:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Sure there was a ship.
What I should have said was to "seem competitve" the Giants should come up with some sort of experienced low budget starter.  I agree, likely any combination of spending their $45 million will not make them an above .500 team.

In reality, Sabean and co. will go through the motions of "looking to be competitive" but let's hope that they spend their money on the least damaging contracts to their future.

Coming this close to the signing the dangerous contracts of Pierre and Matthews, is a sign that Sabean is not too worried about weighing down their payroll with lengthy and expensive contracts.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on Nov 22, 2006 2:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
Think Texas would be interested in Winn? His contract isnt looking so bad all of the sudden.

by sfgreg on Nov 22, 2006 10:46 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
Exactly - the best way to leverage our crappy contracts is to see what happens when the dust settles and this insane spending spree sets the market ridiculously high.  

If not Texas, there will be some team that needs a mediocre weak-armed OF, no?  I can at least hope.  I know Texas has been down on Blalock in recent years (with good reason, dude has underperformed like what), but if we could ship Winn and a prospect for Hank... that's a good risk to take.

Of course, do we even have "prospects" in our system?  It's debatable.

by losingcalifornia on Nov 22, 2006 10:49 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
Good risk to take?  Here's his career road numbers away from the aberration that is Arlington Stadium:  .242/.300/.393/.693, 32 AB/HR.  That's even worse than Pedro Feliz.

At least when Winn hits that bad, that's not so bad for a CF - for a 3B, that's bottom of the barrel.

And for those who say you need to include home numbers, Arlington's numbers are so skewed that fantasy baseball advise columns recommend hitters who will be hitting there and to avoid any pitcher pitching there.  Plus, the fact is that he'll be hitting at AT&T, not Arlington, if he moves here.

I'm bored, how about you?

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 22, 2006 11:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
Home park splits aren't the end all and be all of predictive performance.  For example, look at Alfonso Soriano and the awful splits he put up while a Ranger.  You can say that last year's performance at RFK was salary-driven, but in the greater context home parks like Arlington and Coors Field affect players in a way that their home/road splits can't be depend on as an accurate barometer of overall performance.

I think the better analysis would be to find a median point between home and road splits for any extreme parks.  If you look at Hank Blalock's minor league numbers, he's a guy that has completely underperformed to his projections (not that Minor League #s are great predictors either), but he's definitely a guy that was classified as having a high upside early on in his career, and in my opinion I think a park like Arlington has contributed to his stagnating overall numbers by instilling bad hitting habits.

"I really wish these snakes were your arms..."

Losing California Productions

by losingcalifornia on Nov 22, 2006 11:14 AM PST up reply actions  

Blalock
I'd really like to "take a risk" on Blalock, but it's good for everybody to remember than Blalock has gotten worse every year at every skill for a long time. I still dream of good things from him, but at a certain point, minor league numbers from a half-decade ago lose their allure. I wouldn't give up any pitcher capable of 180 league average innings for him.
 
Saving countless runs with my defense

by lyricalkiller on Nov 22, 2006 11:37 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Blalock
Blalock now is in pretty much the same spot Adrian Beltre was in before his big year in 2004. I don't know what's gone wrong with him over the last few years, but sure I wouldn't mind giving him a shot at working it out in San Francisco.

by Evan on Nov 22, 2006 11:45 AM PST up reply actions  

Good point.
How much would you give up, on the following scale?

Lowry

Sanchez

Sadler

Saving countless runs with my defense

by lyricalkiller on Nov 22, 2006 11:49 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Good point.
Well, let's see. Blalock's under contract for two more years for an average of $5.5 million per year, with an option for a third at $6.2. That looked like a pretty bad contract a month ago, but now . . . that's about what Pedro Feliz will get, right? So how much talent is the difference in potential between Blalock and Feliz worth?

I think he's too risky to give up Lowry or Sanchez for. I'd be willing to part with, say, Sadler and EME.

by Evan on Nov 22, 2006 12:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Good point.
Does Hennessey have any value on the open market?  For the statistically-disinclined, his nice ERA from last year and remaining years before FA should look especially good in this market.
"I really wish these snakes were your arms..."

Losing California Productions

by losingcalifornia on Nov 22, 2006 1:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Ah ha!
I see Sabean's strategy now! Say you're going to sign so-and-so player to get rivals to quickly snatch them up!
LicenseToPills: barry bonds says words, they have nothing to do with his thoughts, they are just subjects and predicates in his mental kingdom

by Natto on Nov 22, 2006 10:59 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr.
"Just sign Barry already!"

Just why would Barry want to sign with the Giants.  We are a team looking straight at 100 loses with or without Barry.  Why would Barry want to finish his career like this?  

Mark my words, Barry will be an Oakland A where he can continue to play infront of BayArea Fans and where he has a real chance and playoff sucess.

I would not be suprised if Ray didn't join Barry in Oakland.  They could rotation between DH and LF and the A's could pay for both with the Zito, Thomas, and Payton money.

by giantsrainman on Nov 22, 2006 11:10 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr.
Well, we should re-sign Bonds because I want them to.  So there.

I don't need to mark your words, no one has any clue what's going to happen, esp. since it seems like there is some kind of collusion going on to actively prevent teams from signing Bonds.

I think it's more likely the A's sign Piazza, and maybe Durham.

"I really wish these snakes were your arms..."

Losing California Productions

by losingcalifornia on Nov 22, 2006 11:17 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr.
I think it's more Balco-llusion than anything else.
I'm bored, how about you?

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 22, 2006 4:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr.
Because of all of his baggage, Barry's options are much more limited than his agent lets on.
We'd be pretty good if we didn't suck so bad.

by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 22, 2006 12:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
I offer my most humble thanks to the baseball gods.
My VORP is higher than your VORP.

by Poe on Nov 22, 2006 11:14 AM PST reply actions  

Woohoo!
Sign Barry.  Make the Burrell trade happen.  Sign Durham.  Sign Aurilia or Huff or Lugo for 3B.  Get Zaun or Mirabelli or even Molina for C.

Optimism Point #1:  As more and more of these guys sign, Barry is more likely to be back, and he is better than all of these crap FAs.  Plus, he is only a one-year contract.

Optimism Point #2:  There are still creative things to be done that can make this team competitive (and look: the 83 win St Louis Cardinals were WS Champion).

Optimism Point #3:  Inflation or no, these FA contracts aren't worth it.  This is about avoiding bad signings.  Overpaying for someone who is very good is one thing, while overpaying (or even paying in the first place) for Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr is another.  Giving Zito big dollars for 7 years may get you 5 or 6 good years.  Giving Sarge Lite or Punchless Pierre 4 or 5 years at any dollars might not get you one above-average performance.  These contracts have Edgardo Alfonzo written all over them.

Optimism Point #4:  The pitching will be good.  You can always compete with pitching.  Pay for some bullpen insurance, and use it as trade fodder to shore up other holes when the time comes.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Nov 22, 2006 11:44 AM PST reply actions  

There are a lot of buyers, still
The Phillies and the Padres were both supposed to have something like $40 million apiece this offseason, and still do. (Sorry if my figs are off a bit.) I'd expect action from the A's, Rangers, Mariners, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Orioles, Yankees.

So, of that wish list, what's reasonable? One of 'em? Two?

Saving countless runs with my defense

by lyricalkiller on Nov 22, 2006 11:51 AM PST up reply actions  

Re: Woohoo!
The Giants are close to finalizing a deal with Rich Aurilia.  No terms have been disclosed yet.
"Why you gotta be cardin' my hos?" - Charlie Hayes

by stevieg on Nov 22, 2006 11:54 AM PST up reply actions  

Well-Well
I don't know if this means Bye-Bye to Ray-Ray or Flea-Fleas.

by Moggeee on Nov 22, 2006 12:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Well-Well
Um, I'm hoping the latter.
"Why you gotta be cardin' my hos?" - Charlie Hayes

by stevieg on Nov 22, 2006 12:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Woohoo!
The Giants are going to wait until after Dec. 1 because apparently Richie is a Type A FA (don't ask me how, I don't understand how that system works...though common sense is apparently not a huge factor), meaning the Giants would lose a draft pick by signing him if he is offered arb by the Reds.
We'd be pretty good if we didn't suck so bad.

by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 22, 2006 12:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Woohoo!
The Giants pitching will NOT be good.  Lowry has shown he's league-average at best.  Ditto Morris.  Ditto Hennessey.  Cain is good and will hopefully get better but he's not at All-Star level yet.  He needs to cut down on his walks to be more effective.

The Giants need a #1 starter.  Unfortunately there are no #1s in this market (and only a handful of true #1s in all of MLB for that matter).

As more and more premier free agents disappear from the market, it's time to begin packing away your Giant foam fingers.  They will be unnecessary in 2007.

by vizqueltofrandsentoniekro on Nov 22, 2006 12:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Woohoo!
What Lowry has shown is that when he is healthy, he is a pretty good pitcher (2004-2005), but when he has a bad injury (2006), he's pretty ordinary.  2007 will show further evidence which is what he is.  Morris is dominating when he is at his best - unfortunately, his health being what it is, he's not always health.  2007 I think will give a better indication what type of pitcher we got, he was very good from mid-May to mid-July.  Hennessey, I think you are being kind, for what he has shown.

Cain in the second half of 2006 had a 3.26 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 3.6 BB, 0.7 HR/9, batters hitting .214/.296/.357/.653 off of him (45 AB/HR).  If that is not ace or all-star material, then I don't know what is.  Quibbling on his walks when he has a strong K/9 (and 3.0 BB/9 is the max you want so he's not that far) seems extreme to say the least.

No matter how bad the offense ends up, I think the pitching will keep the Giants interesting in 2007.

I'm bored, how about you?

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 22, 2006 4:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
Every awful signing other teams make is an awful signing Sabean doesn't get a chance to make. Three cheers for stupidity!
DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Nov 22, 2006 12:31 PM PST reply actions  

The Case for Punting 2007
Let's face it. Things just don't look good for the team next year. There are too many holes to fill in our starting lineup and just not enough to fill it with. The best thing the team could do is to sign some relatively mediocre and relatively cheap talent for next year (like Aurillia) and just play with a bunch of scrubs and Rookies. If they bring Bonds back (the exception) then attendance will be there so long as he plays and is going for the record, and the team will actually make a profit. Why do this?

Reason to punt #1: The next 2 drafts look like they are going to be deeper when it comes to position prospects, something our system desperately needs. If the Giants have higher picks, they stand a much better chance of getting one or more of those. Picking number one would be even better. If we lose a bunch of our FA's this time, that only increases the number of picks we'll get. That is the best way to build up your minor league system, and it gives us chips to trade later on if we look like we're close.

Reason to punt #2: 2008's free agent class, at this point, is going to be much deeper than this year's: Andruw Jones, Ichiro, Vernon Wells, Adam Dunn, Michael Young, and Trevor Hoffman are just some of the names. Yes a bunch of these guys will sign with their same clubs or only want to be on the east coast, but still there will be a lot of talent available.  2009 is still too far away to project. Regardless, don't expect these guys to be cheaper than this year's lot, but if the market is full of good players, maybe there will be some dilution, but don't expect too much. If the Giants save a bunch of $ from being frugal now, they will be able to overspend with the big boys in 2008 and 2009.

Obviously, the down side to this is sucking for a year or two, but let's face it. We could spend a whole ton of loot this offseason on overpriced guys and we'll still suck or be in the middle of the back at best. It's like not needing a million dollars to do nothing all day long. But why settle for being just mediocre when we can take sucking to a new low and cash in later. Just one or two years of being the Royals will pay off eventually.

We'd be pretty good if we didn't suck so bad.

by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 22, 2006 12:44 PM PST reply actions  

Re: The Case for Punting 2007
I really like reason #1. If we stay away from signing away picks we are going to end up with 4-5 high picks in a very deep draft. Given our system, that's 4 or 5 guys who will immediately be in our top 10 or 15 and some actual gasp legitimate position player prospects. I, for one, drool at the thought.
DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Nov 22, 2006 12:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Case for Punting 2007
I like #1 as well. But keep in mind, the great strength of the '07 class is high school hitters. Scouts are saying this is the greatest high school class in a generation, but that means even if we hit the lottery and call the right names, we're not talking about people who will impact the SF Giants before 2011 at the earliest.

by Roger on Nov 22, 2006 1:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Case for Punting 2007
That is a good point, and it is possible that some of those guys could have some good trade value before then, which would allow us to get an impact bat from another club before then or right around then.

One of our current glaring organizational problems, which has come to fruition this offseason is that we have no minor league trade bait to help us out when the market goes nuts as it has this year. Seriously, we could get a Vernon Wells type guy (2008 FA) this year if we had anything good in the pipeline to trade Toronto. I'm not saying it'd be worth it because of we have so many holes to fill, but that's the type of thing I'm talking about in point number 1.

We'd be pretty good if we didn't suck so bad.

by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 22, 2006 1:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Case for Punting 2007
I'd also add that this particular strategery requires patience, something that has been in short supply among Giants fans, generally after being spoiled with winning teams during the 1997-2004 run, and in particular since coming within a Dusty Baker of winning it all in 2002. (Not that we're a monolith, but I've felt that way.)

Moreover, having a decent plan and executing it our 2 different things. If our scouting system can't recognize talent when it sees it, then we're screwed regardless of what we do.

We'd be pretty good if we didn't suck so bad.

by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 22, 2006 1:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: The Case for Punting 2007
We haven't drafted a bunch of poor prospects like, say, Pittsburgh, we just haven't drafted anybody at all. Our track record with pitching is pretty damn good between Cain and Liriano, and we've even got good value out of the guys that bombed. I see no reason to dislike our scouting department, although it's true that we don't have much of a sample size regarding position players to judge them on.
DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Nov 22, 2006 2:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
Wow. This was close. Check out these quotes from the ESPN article :

"It came down to the Angels and the Giants," Scott Leventhal, Matthews' agent, told The Associated Press.

And:


Leventhal said Matthews made his decision Wednesday morning. Matthews had also been sought by the San Francisco Giants.

"They were right there," Leventhal said. "It was a very difficult decision. More than 10 teams kicked the tires. Everybody couldn't be more pleased."

San Francisco was also said to be offered $50 million over five years before the Angels matched that package.

Thank goodness he wanted to live on SoCal.

My VORP is higher than your VORP.

by Poe on Nov 22, 2006 12:51 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
You know, I think this is Sabean's best off-season as the GM here just by virtue of driving up the prices of mediocre players for other teams. The Juan  Pierre signing in particular dealt a pretty severe blow to our bitter rivals.
DFA Everybody

by JakeS on Nov 22, 2006 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
YIkes -- so it wasn't common sense on Brian Sabean's part that saved us from that contract, it was geographical preference.

Well, I guess to some extent that worries me -- management does have a good amount of payroll to spend, and while this message board may have all kinds of good suggestions for what the Giants should or shouldn't do, I doubt Sabean is listening.

At this rate, Aurilia (if we sign him, as someone above wrote is a done deal) is a good stopgap at 3B, but other than Zito there isn't a FA out there who'll be worth even 75% of what his contract will pay over the life of the terms.

Maybe we should punt it next year.  If we trade for anyone though, we should definitely include Hennessey in the package as he seems to have the least upside of all our young pitchers.

"I really wish these snakes were your arms..."

Losing California Productions

by losingcalifornia on Nov 22, 2006 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
Mother of God (whoever she is), that near signing was scary!  Brian Sabean is either the luckiest stupid idiot or the greatest genius whoever lived.
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on Nov 22, 2006 2:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
Right on!  Right now it seems more the former than the latter, assuming that quote is right that the Giants had the same offer.  

For Sabean to be genius, he would have to had figured that the Angels can match the Giants 5 year/$50M contract AND were willing to do that AND that that was the most that they would go.  Plus knew that living in SoCal was that important to Gary Matthews.

How would that work?  I knew the Angels were desperate for offense from things I have read about them - which I always found odd because they have Vlad and their vaunted farm system of good position players - but to be that desperate for Matthews?  Perhaps by being in the mix for all the CF, Sabean could figure out which teams were focusing on one guy and which were spreading out their interest, and found that the Angels were only focusing on Matthews.  He could pull down the salaries they already had plus past payrolls to get a sense for how much they are spending, plus since most teams have some sort of public pronouncement of their budget, he could also have gotten it that way, and figured out that the Angels had a lot of money to spend.

Further research would show what positions they were looking for, which would give Sabean an idea of how the money they have remaining needs to be spread out.  Plus the pattern of past contracts would give a clue to how their management handled years.  I would guess, though, that it was the Angels who upped the ante to 5 years, which the Giants then matched and perhaps matched money too, until the Angels stopped upping their bid.

But that final piece of the puzzle, knowing that Matthews would tip the scale to LA for a matching bid, how would he know that one?  I can see offering, say, $1M less in total package or something to make it easier for the player who grew up in LA area (Granada Hills High School, Grenada Hills; wow, Mark Davis and John Elway's high school too) and (in any case) has a lot of family there, but to match the salary, you would have to know that he was preferring to be with the Angels, given his druthers.  How do you dig that out and then bid the same salary when the guy just told you to win his services you have to beat theirs?

It would take a total asshole to know that you have to overbid and then to just bid the same, knowing you are going to lose, and Sabean don't seem that type.  Of course, Matthews agent wouldn't care, he knows his client would chose the Angels, but dutifully would report back to the Angels that the Giants had matched their bid, do they want to up it?

Whew, in any case, it's a line drive up the middle in the boxscore, avoiding a disastrous contract like that.

I'm bored, how about you?

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Nov 22, 2006 5:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
I guess Randy Winn's contract doesn't look so bad after all.

It has been noted already in this thread, but it seems Giant management is waiting until Dec. 1 to do most of there business.

I'd prefer that Linden and Frandson just be given opening day spots, or at least in position to win or lose a staring role in spring training. And, WTF, just sign Bonds. I don't know who the hell they expect to hit behind him but at least the Giants can get butts in the seats.

Bottom line for '07: Let's see some young talent develop and watch Barry stagger past Aaron, because here just isn't enough available talent to build a playoff caliber team.

by RUSirius on Nov 22, 2006 1:50 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
Winn's contract only looks reasonable by comparison. It is still a bad deal (I'd much rather have Pierre or Roberts). It does, however, at least allow the possibility to exist that we could trade him for someone worth watching in 2-3 years.
We'd be pretty good if we didn't suck so bad.

by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 22, 2006 2:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
then again, maybe these free agents are saying "HEY! Look what Randy Winn got last year. I'm twice the player he is!"
We'd be pretty good if we didn't suck so bad.

by nostocksjustbonds on Nov 22, 2006 2:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
Sabean is actually just driving up the CF market to make the Winn signing not look so bad, lol.  Problem with trading Randy is his bad 2006.  Difficult to sell low.
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." - Jimi Hendrix

by GiantJim on Nov 22, 2006 2:14 PM PST reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
Winn, Benitez, Morris... none of these guys have untradeable contracts, they just put up virtually untradeable numbers in 2006. If any of them are having decent seasons at the All-Star Break, they will be in demand. Until then I see no reason to sell low. Well, I suppose that "I just can't take looking at Benitez for one more day" is a pretty good reason.

The only veteran we can "sell high" on now is Vizquel, and I don't think the Giants are prepared to take the PR hit that would come with such a trade.

"Robb Nen is going to get you" - Benito Santiago to Chipper Jones, 10/7/02

by Pants Man on Nov 22, 2006 2:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
Being a good General Manager doesn't mean paying ridiculous money for long term contracts for mediocre, over-priced players.
Giants fans should consider themselves lucky that we DID NOT waste $50M on JUAN PIERRE or GARY MATTHEWS JR.  Sabean did offer $96M for SORIANO for 6 yrs - a decent offer, and at least the guy is a STAR.....

An earlier post on another thread quoted Sabean as saying:
"I don't like to spend a lot of time on the draft. It's a crapshoot anyways, so in a way it's a waste of time."  If he did actually say this, it was a stupid remark, and the reason that the Giants have one of the weakest farm systems in Baseball for position players.  Hopefully, he has learned the error of his ways.

To begin with, THIS IS A WEAK FREE-AGENT MARKET.
There will be many "Type B" Free Agents, i.e. TROT NIXON, RICH AURILIA, PRESTON WILSON, JOSE GUILLEN, GREG ZAUN, TED LILLY, GIL MECHE and several others who will perform better than many "Type A" Free Agents

The GIANTS have a UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY this year to build up their farm system quickly.  Here's a brief primer on FREE AGENCY 101:

Teams that lose a Type A free agent are compensated with two draft picks. Teams that lose a Type B free agent get one pick in return.
It's interesting because it's an exploitable area.  If you're a low-budget team looking to build your organization through the draft and player development, losing the right guys (overvalued, Type A free agents) can pay dividends.  Similarly, signing the right low-level (Type-B/No-Comp) undervalued FAs, (you lose one pick for signing a Type B, is certainly low-risk, and might be high-return if you're lucky.

Keep in mind, nearly all these comped picks are within the first two rounds, (with the exception of the FIRST 15 PICKS being protected).  That's before solid-looking prospects like Jonathan Papelbon, Elijah Dukes, or Ricky Nolasco are getting picked...they are slots where you're essentially getting instant top-20 prospects within your organization.

The GIANTS FREE AGENTS are as follows:

BONDS Type A
DURHAM Type A
ALOU Type A
SCHMIDT Type A
FELIZ Type B
HILLENBRAND Type B
STANTON Type B
STEVE FINLEY N/C
TODD GREENE N/C
STEVE KLINE N/C
JAMEY WRIGHT N/C

For a small investment, the GIANTS could field the following team in 2007:

FRANDSEN 2B
VIZQUEL SS
BONDS LF
AURILIA 3B (better offensively & defensively than FELIZ)
NIXON 1B   (better offensively & defensively than NIEKRO/HILLENBRAND)
LINDON RF
ZAUN/ALFONSO C
WINN CF

Granted, this is may not be a great team, but NO WORSE than last year.
Let's not forget that we're playing in the worst division in Baseball, where playing .500 ball actually gives you a shot at winning.

We would LOSE 4 PICKS for AURILIA, NIXON & ZAUN,
and GAIN 9 PICKS FOR ALOU, DURHAM, SCHMIDT, FELIZ, HILLENBRAND, STANTON for A NET GAIN OF 5 PICKS IN THE FIRST TWO ROUNDS OF THE DRAFT.

By taking this approach, we would SAVE MONEY, still have all of our good young pitching and an additional 5 HIGH DRAFT PICKS, all of which could be used for trades and/or THE BETTER FREE AGENT GROUP NEXT YEAR.

IT'S TIME TO BUILD FOR THE FUTURE, not get caught up in spending ridiculous amounts of money for mediocre, over-prices players.

by maysman on Nov 23, 2006 10:20 AM PST reply actions  

Re: Another bullet dodged - Matthews Jr. to the An
I like
  • replenish the farm system
  • Frandsen 2B at or near top of otder
  • Bonds in the three-hole
  • Aurilia playing for SF again if contract is 2yrs
  • Ok with Nixon either 1B or RF
  • giving Linden an opportunity to play
  • having Alfonzo as back-up catcher
  • having LH in batting order
we might need
  • another SP
  • some more team speed
  • bullpen help

by wilriv21 on Nov 23, 2006 10:40 AM PST up reply actions  

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